Johnmccain

Nice one Darran! A Royston/Tamworth double really saved me and made sure I could take a little profit from the night. I also had Royston HT/FT so of course they scored all 4 goals in the 2nd half.

A small profit on Saturday thanks to Dulwich, Harrogate and Hartlepool. Was nearly so much better with 3 of the other bets drawing but certainly happy to keep things ticking over. Onto tonight and I have 4 bets.
Kidderminster v Farsley Celtic
The home side usually get backed from the Asian punters and this has happened yet again with this match tonight. Earlier this morning Farsley themselves had been backed into 6/5 and then the market has made a massive shift towards Kiddie and they are as short as evens now. The reason the Asian market punters love Kiddie is I think because they always seem to produce good stats on the shots both for and against side of things. This of course though doesn't actually mean a great deal in my view when it comes to results on the pitch especially at this level. They have only managed 4 wins in the league this season and have been dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition. I watch a lot of Step 2 football in the flesh and I can be pretty certain that the stats that are produced actually have little baring on what the quality of the shots during the game actually are. Kiddie fans have said how poor they have been and their league position certainly backs that up. The other key thing for me here is the fact they haven't played a game of football since September 28th. As Stafford knocked them out of the FA Cup they didn't have a game for 2 of those Saturday's and then they missed the other because of international call-ups. I used to think that time off like that was helpful at this stage of the season, but actually I am not sure it is anymore. The bets I have had on the back of these sort of breaks have usually lost because in actual fact the team are ring rusty having not kicked a ball in anger for so long. They did beat Altrincham in their last home league game on September 14th, but then Altrincham are yet to win away from home this season and are below Kiddie in the table. They have finally been taken over so there should be more positivity around the club and they have made one new signing so far. I suspect more will follow, but it will take time to overhaul a disappointing squad. Celtic have done superbly well so far after gaining promotion last season and have won 5 games on the bounce. Now I do have to add here that they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They have beaten Bradford Park Avenue, Kettering, Leamington, Curzon and then on Saturday Alfreton. That isn't a great bunch apart from Alfreton, but even they aren't in the best of form right now. However it does show they are scoring goals for fun as they have scored 15 goals in that time and they have scored in their last 9 league games. Obviously they won't be as fresh as the home side as they played on Saturday, but they will be match fit which could be the bigger factor. At 23/10 Celtic have to be the play as yet again Kiddie are way too short in the betting.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Banbury
The home side cost us on Saturday, but I am going to oppose them again here. Banbury have had a superb season so far and have only lost 1 of their last 9 games. They were involved in a thriller on Saturday against Biggleswade which they won 3-2 in injury time and I think they can back that up with a win here.
St Ives Town v Royston Town
I am a bit concerned about how the away side will react to blowing a good chance of getting to the First Round of the FA Cup on Saturday, but this does look a good game for them to try and bounce back in and they look way over priced. St Ives have got a lot of injured players and it looks doubtful about them getting any back for tonight. Last Tuesday they drew 4-4 with bottom side Leiston in a game described as one neither team deserved to win. They then lost 1-0 to an Alvechurch side who hadn't won a league game since August and they performed poorly again. Granted Royston haven't won in 4 league games but the two defeats were against Tamworth and Hednesford so they weren't expected to win either of them. I just can't have them as 3/1 shots to win this at all and that is a huge price.
Stratford Town v Tamworth
The home side look in a right mess at the moment and they have already used over 30 players this season. They sacked their manager a couple of weeks ago and they were forced to cut the budget as well as another 8 players left the team. It has been 10 days since they played a competitive game which they lost 3-0 Lowestoft which is their only win in 7 games and they have lost the other 6. Tamworth were my main bets for the title and they are nicely placed in 3rd after 11 games. They did lose to Darlington in the FA Cup at the weekend, but that was obviously much tougher than this and they will be hoping to get back to winning ways tonight. I think they ought to be odds on to win this so Betway's 7/5 looks too big.
Farsely Celtic 2pts @ 23/10 with Bet365
Banbury 1pt @ 44/25 with Marathon
Royston 2pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway
Tamworth 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Betway

Agreed, Kidderminster are near me and they have had allsorts of problems this season.  Also home record isnt great Played 6 won 1 drawn 1 and lost 4  think they are good odds.

Liking the look of 3 League 2 games this weekend.
I'm taking Salford, Macclesfield and Forest Green wins, 1 point on each. All are roughly in the 3.0 odds and so if we get one winner we dang near break even or more, and if we get 2 winners we double up.

Nice one Darran made 3x from Warrington, Blyth and Truro in a couple of doubles from my own selections! Nice one mate

Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up. 

Couldn't have put it better myself.
It's extremely rare to find a tipster / poster of Darran's quality.
If people can't handle a couple of harsh coupons then they shouldn't even be gambling. I would echo @Johnmccain's post and say bettors need to have good bankroll management and not have too much faith in any given bet. Personally I never bet more than 2% of my total bankroll on any one bet.
Your average betting odds should be an important factor when considering your BR management structure (the higher the average odds = smaller percentage of total bankroll per bet).
If you can learn not to be outraged when you loose and not intoxicated when you win then you will be a better gambler, and perhaps a better person aswell.

Sounds like someone bet more money than they could afford...

Sounds like someone bet more money than they could afford...

I like the look of Forest Green to beat Crawley. Crawley have gone off the boil after starting the season well, and the bookies overlooking of Forest Green that started last season has continued in to this one. Now Salford haven't been firing on all cylinders, but FGR were 0 - 4 up in Salford last week and that's no mean feat.
 
Happy to take them at 6/4 with Bet365.

I like the look of Forest Green to beat Crawley. Crawley have gone off the boil after starting the season well, and the bookies overlooking of Forest Green that started last season has continued in to this one. Now Salford haven't been firing on all cylinders, but FGR were 0 - 4 up in Salford last week and that's no mean feat.
 
Happy to take them at 6/4 with Bet365.

I like the look of Forest Green to beat Crawley. Crawley have gone off the boil after starting the season well, and the bookies overlooking of Forest Green that started last season has continued in to this one. Now Salford haven't been firing on all cylinders, but FGR were 0 - 4 up in Salford last week and that's no mean feat.
 
Happy to take them at 6/4 with Bet365.

Edit: Great day Darran nice one mate!

No fa cup prices as of yet so looks like it will be tomorrow which is annoying.

I don't actually. As I mention in the Notts County preview they ought to have won the game although Yeovil's front pair did look decent. I still think Yeovil are no more than a mid table side at this stage.

It was a fantastic end to August on Saturday which came on the back of a great Bank Holiday Monday and meant it was a good solid profit for the first month of the season. The games keep coming though and we basically have a full fixture list in the 3 National Leagues over the next 3 days as well as the BetVictor Northern Premier in action. I have 6 bets which all come on Tuesday.
Previews to follow
Barrow v Hartlepool
The Barrow manager continues to be frustrated by his side as again on Saturday they made costly mistakes as they lost 3-2 to Woking. They have only managed two wins so far this season and one of those was in the terrible game against Yeovil which was live on BT. Prior to last Monday I was beginning to think I had made a mistake by putting up Hartlepool ante-post, but then they won against Wrexham and Torquay and that now sees them just 2 points off the play-off places. They looked good in both wins and they seem to be clicking now. To be fair they have only lost one game since they lost their first two and that was 3-2 against Bromley who are yet to lose. Quite how they failed to score against a Chorley side who are leaking goals for fun I don't know as the other four games in their last five they have scored at least two. With Barrow struggling to keep clean sheets they should get plenty of chances to score a couple here. It is hard to see why they should be over 2/1 to gain another 3 points and they are worth backing.
Chesterfield v Hailfax
Those who were reading my previews last season will know backing Chesterfield to draw was a very profitable system for a while and amazingly they have become the draw specialists this season drawing 5 of their 8 games so far. It would also seem we are looking at a scoring draw as only once have both teams not scored in Chesterfield games this term. Halifax have really surprised me, but what a job Peter Wild has done given he came in just before the season started. They have won 6 of their 8 and only drawn 1 and are 14 points ahead of their hosts at the moment. I do think the table is lying though as Chesterfield aren't as bad as their league position suggests. I do think though a draw is a good possibility again and looks the value play here.
Harrogate v Chorley
As I mention above I have no idea how Chorley kept out Hartlepool because in their other 4 games in their last 5 they have conceded 18 goals! It was easy to see why watching them against Boreham Wood on Saturday as they looked clueless at times. The team just doesn't look up to this level and hopefully Harrogate can also put a few past them. Harrogate have had a frustrating season so far having won just two of their opening eight games. They weren't great against Dover on Saturday, but this does look like a good opportunity to get back to winning ways and they were unlucky not to take 3 points against Fylde last Monday. If Chorley continue to defend as badly as they have then Harrogate should cover the -1 handicap.
Notts County v Solihull Moors
I am going to go with Notts County again here. On the face of it losing 3-1 to Yeovil on Saturday was a poor effort, but that doesn't tell the whole story as they ought to have won. Manager Neil Ardley after the game even said the fans will go away wondering how we didn't win the game. I think they have a good chance of making amends here as Solihull seem to have forgotten how to defend. They let in two very poor goals against Eastleigh and it was the case again against Halifax on Saturday. County should get chances and although they didn't convert them on Saturday they have only failed to score in their opening game this season. They look a fair price to bounce straight back with a win.
Concord v Braintree
Two sides here that have surprised me with their starts as I thought both would struggle this season. That might still end up being the case, but both new managers will be very happy with their starts. I think the bookies have priced the game up wrong though and the 7/2 on the away side is a massive price. Concord won their first 3 games but have mainly struggled since as they picked up just 1 point from their next 4 before having a comfortable win over Welling on Saturday. It might have been a return to form, but it seems Welling were poor so they might not have had to work that hard to win the game. Braintree have a young team and that showed when they lost their first 3 games, but they have been really impressive since winning 4 of their next 5 games scoring 14 goals in the process. The other thing I like is that on Monday and on Saturday they scored late goals to win the games so they clearly don't give up. That's obviously a great trait for any team to have and they come into this Essex derby in the better form for me and the prices should be much closer together.
Witton Albion v Hyde
Hyde won for us on Saturday when thrashing Stafford 4-0 and I think they can make it 5 wins on the bounce on Tuesday night. As I mentioned in Saturday's preview Hyde look like they are going to be promotion contenders this season based on their impressive start to the season. Witton have only lost 1 of their first 4 league games, but they have had a reasonably kind start to the season and their defeat came against a good Nantwich side which suggests to me Hyde will have too much for them.
 
Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
Chesterfield v Halifax draw 1pt @ 63/25 with Marathon
Harrogate -1 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
Notts County 1pt @ 17/10 with BetVictor
Braintree 2pts @ 7/2 with Bet365
Hyde 1pt @ 33/20 with Marathon

Doubled up! Cheers Darran

Superb day on Monday with only 5/6 winners at some decent prices as well. If only Spennymoor could have won we would have been looking at another hefty payout. Just to remind people that I always suggest they do singles, but I always cover the acca and the one below for 0.5pts every match day and the five fold on Monday has pretty much paid for a whole season of those bets. It has been a bit of a rollercoaster though this month so hopefully we can end August on a high on Saturday where I have 7 bets across 5 leagues.
Torquay v Hartlepool
Hartlepool were one of my ante-post bets for the league and I was beginning to think I had got them wrong, but they got a really good win on Monday when beating Wrexham 4-2. Torquay blew a 2 goal lead at Barnet on Monday and that came on the back of beating Aldershot on BT Sport on Saturday. Torquay did well enough and deserved the win, but I didn't think they had to work all that hard for it. I don't think there is a great deal between these two teams at the moment and the win on Monday should have given Hartlepool a nice confidence boost ahead of this. The 100/30 about an away win looks over priced for me.
Yeovil v Notts County
County continue to improve and although they didn't have to do much to beat Chorley on Monday they did score some very impressive goals. I think they can come out on top in this battle between the two relegated sides. I haven't really been taken by Yeovil so far and they lost their last 3 games after results wise a good start. They have only managed to beat Eastleigh and Ebbsfleet so far though and I think at the time they were two of the poorest teams in the division so it doesn't say much. I would have County as clear favourites and they are certainly looking stronger than they were earlier in the month.
Gloucester City v York City
York are already looking like they could be hard to beat in the National League North and they are unbeaten after 7 games. Away from home they are 3/3 and I think they can make it 4/4 at Evesham on Saturday. Gloucester had a good win last Saturday, but those efforts told when being well beaten by Brackley on Monday. As I have written in the past Gloucester's form at Evesham hasn't been great although they can make it hard for teams to break them down and they drew plenty in the final few months of the season as they tried to stay at this level. I think York have more than enough to break them down though and I thought York would be odds on so odds against is well worth taking.
Hyde v Stafford
It has been a good start to the season for Hyde as after losing to Basford on the opening day of the season they have won their other 3 games including beating South Shields last Saturday. That is clearly strong form and they host a Stafford side who have only picked up 1 point from their first 3 games so Hyde look a decent bet to make it 4 wins on the bounce.
Bognor v Carshalton
Take Bognor's 5-0 win over Worthing out and they have had a shocking start to the season and they lost 3-0 to Worthing last Saturday and they had lost their previous game 6-0! Carshalton lost their first two games, but they have won their next 3 games and should be capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season whereas Bognor might just struggle to get involved. It doesn't really make much sense why the away side are 100/30 and the prices should be much closer together.
Hednesford v Needham Market
The home side are looking like they will be title contenders this season and have won 4 of their first 5 games with the only defeat coming against unbeaten Coalville. On Monday they beat title favourites Tamworth and I think they should have too much in hand over a Needham Market side who have only managed to beat bottom side Leiston so far this term.
St Ives v Coalville
Speaking of Coalville they travel to St Ives side who have only managed to pick up one point on the opening day of the season. As mentioned above Coalville are unbeaten so far and they came out on top in an 8 goal thriller against Nuneaton on Saturday. These two teams should be battling it out at opposite ends of the table come April and Coalville look a big price to pick up 3 more points.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
Notts County 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon and Bet365
York 2.5pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
Hyde 1pt @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Carshalton 1pt @ 100/30 with Marathon
Hednesford 2pts @ 26/25 with Marathon
Coalville 2pts @ 131/100 with Marathon

Happy Birthday Darren! Wish I'd followed today... living abroad you forget the damn English bank holidays! Looking like you've got some winners for sure

Saturday was one of those frustrating days which looked like being a really good day at one point and then ended up showing a loss, albeit small, despite only one team losing. I have 6 bets on Monday although I am not going crazy because it is set to be another very hot afternoon coming on the back of a very hot afternoon on Saturday and that is going to be very tough on the players. I think it is going to make what is already a tough turn around even tougher. It is my birthday so hopefully a profit can be made.
Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet
Two sides with only 1 win between them and I doubt there is a great deal between the two sides which make the away team a bet at 29/10. Boreham Wood have usually been very strong at home since they got promoted, but they haven't won a home game since January and with Ebbsfleet improving (they could have beaten Notts County in the end on Saturday), they look a sporting play here.
Dover v Woking
Have I got Woking massively wrong? Having put them up to be relegated I am amazed they are top of the table after 6 games, but then they had a similar start in 2017 when I put them up to go down and they did end up being relegated so who knows! Beating Solihull 2-0 was a superb effort on the back of beating Fylde 4-1. Dover have had a good start as well, but they have lost 2 of their 3 home games and Woking have looked especially good away from home. They just shouldn't be 5/2 shots to win this game.
Blyth Spartans v Guiseley
Blyth's woeful start to the season continued on Saturday as they drew 0-0 with Bradford Park Avenue who have looked even worse than Blyth have. Guiseley have already scored 14 goals this season and must fancy their chances of adding to that tally here. I think they should be nearer even money than the 141/100 that they are.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
I can't believe how much Spennymoor have struggled so far and one 1 point in 4 games is not a good return for last season's beaten play-off finalists. They will surely turn it around sooner rather than later though and I think it could be on Monday as they face a Curzon side who had a nightmare trip to Kings Lynn on Saturday and then were well beaten. On paper Spennymoor are the better side and they just shouldn't be 9/4 shots.
Braintree v Dorking
Both sides lost on Saturday, but I thought Dorking's loss to Hampton was worse and Braintree seem to be gelling at last. Prior to Braintree's 2-1 defeat to Dartford on Saturday they had beaten St Albans 3-0 and Eastbourne 5-0. Dorking's only point in their last 3 games came in a draw against St Albans and they might not add to that here. Braintree certainly look over priced at 17/10.
Kingstonian v Bishops Stortford
Not been a great start to the season by the home side although they were unbeaten before Hornchurch beat them on Saturday. The main reason for tipping Stortford up though is the fact they didn't have a game on Saturday and given the conditions that could well have a big part to play in this game and for that reason at 29/10 they look a sporting play and have managed to win a game this season unlike their hosts.
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 29/10 with Bet365
Woking 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Guiseley 1pt  @ 141/100 with Marathon
Spennymoor 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
Braintree 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor

Thank you very much. It's always nice to read messages from people who follow my stuff either on here or on Twitter. I am very lucky that in all the years I have been tipping now that I have very rarely had nasty comments even when things are going tough. I think that says a lot about how realistic people are who follow my stuff and I really appreciate the fact that people are like that. It is bad enough when you are losing your own money, but when you know that there are others who are putting their hard earned cash on selections you are putting up it can be very tough mentally when things aren't going well. It is also very easy in this day and age for people to start slagging you off when things aren't going well, but its great that people who follow me are in it for the long term and don't jump to rash conclusions on the back of a poor spell. At the end of the day if I wasn't confident in my ability to make people money then I wouldn't even bother. I have to fit all this around work and my home life and sometimes I am up writing previews at 2am because that is the only chance I have to stick something up. Days like this make it worthwhile to put the time and effort in to write the previews.
It isn't quite all done yet as I will be putting up bets for the play-offs and something should be up on Monday once betting is up.

Just want to say thank you Darran. I took my bag of 20 points today and spread it across all your selections... 1 point each on singles and the other 13 spread across doubles and trebles... I have over 450 points. You've paid for my summer. Couldn't be more grateful... if you have a Bitcoin address please let me know so I can send you some thanks

Just want to say thank you Darran. I took my bag of 20 points today and spread it across all your selections... 1 point each on singles and the other 13 spread across doubles and trebles... I have over 450 points. You've paid for my summer. Couldn't be more grateful... if you have a Bitcoin address please let me know so I can send you some thanks

So we finally reach the last day of the regular season. It was nice to get a profit on Monday with Weston, Dover and Dorking all landing at big odds. This season has been very up and down although still be a decent enough season. The ante-post stuff will show a nice profit and we are basically waiting on who wins the Evo-Stik Southern Premier as Weymouth and Taunton were both covered. I really need it to be Weymouth to help land a lumpy mid-season acca I put on (although Farsley aren't home and hosed yet either), but at least I have Taunton covered. Hopefully it can be a profitable end of the season on the match betting front where I have some big prices again.
AFC Fylde v Halifax
It doesn't really matter if Fylde come 4th or 5th and I reckon they might rest a few players in this match with the play-off matches coming thick and fast next week. They are guaranteed a home tie in the first round of matches and will be away in the next tie if they get through anyway so with that in mind Halifax are worth a bet here at 11/2. They beat Wrexham 2-1 on Easter Monday who are the team in 5th at the moment so there is no reason why they can't repeat the same sort of performance here.
Boreham Wood v Eastleigh
The home side gave it a good go at Chesterfield for us on Monday, but ended up going down 3-2 after having a man sent off. Eastleigh made sure of their play-off spot by beating Maidenhead and like Fylde it doesn't really matter if they finish 6th or 7th because they will be away in both the possible games anyway and I can imagine that they will rest key players. This gives Wood a chance especially as they have performed well in recent weeks so are worth backing at just over 2/1.
Bromley v Ebbsfleet
God knows what is happening behind the scenes at Ebbsfleet, but the players still haven't been paid and it is hard to see how they are going to be overly motivated to put in a performance here for a club that is in a right mess off the pitch. The loss to Dover on Monday meant they can no longer finish in the play-offs so there really is nothing to play for and they were poor in that game as it was. Bromley have drawn 3 of their last 4 so still seem to be trying and they beat Leyton Orient 5 games ago. They should be favs for this and 7/4 looks a huge price.
Hartlepool v Salford
Taking a bit of a chance here, but I am backing the home side. I just wonder if Salford will decide to concentrate on the play-offs given they are highly unlikely to catch Leyton Orient. If Orient go in front early on then Salford will know their number is really up and they wont want to be risking injuries ahead of the play-offs. Hartlepool aren't exactly ending the season in great form but they did beat Halifax on Good Friday. Team news could be key, but it might just pay to be ahead of the game here and have a small investment at a big price in the hope Salford have one eye on the play-offs.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
Not that long ago Spennymoor were in poor form, but they have won 4 of their last 5 games and are setting themselves up nicely for the play-offs. They got a huge win against at the time league leaders Chorley on Easter Monday and they will be trying here as if they can overtake Brackley then they will have one less game in the play-offs. As I have mentioned a few times of late Curzon have stopped for the season based on their performances and odds against on the away side picking up another win is a big price.
Eastbourne v Concord
I really don't get the price of Concord here. I think the bookies are basing it on the fact they are basically certain of a play-off spot, but what they have missed is the fact that they can finish 4th or 5th and that would mean a home tie in the first round of the play-offs. Given how strong they have been at home this season that would be huge if they could overtake Bath and or Chelmsford. God knows where Eastbourne's 6-0 drubbing of Dartford came from given it had been a very long time since they last won prior to that. They then drew with Slough 1-1 on Monday which was a decent effort as well. They are safe now though and with Concord still having something to play for they just should be 9/2.
Woking v Gloucester City
I suspect if Gloucester had not come from 2 down to beat Chippenham 3-2 on Monday then Gloucester would not have been such a big price for this because they still would have been fighting for their survival. Fortunately for me and my fellow City supporters we are now safe for another season, but I think we can go out on a win. Our away form has been much stronger than our home form this term, but the key point is that Woking have nothing to play for. They can only finish 2nd now and I really can't believe that they won't be resting players ahead of the play-offs. Why would Alan Dowson risk his key players in a meaningless game a few days ahead of trying to win promotion? 21/5 looks a big price on an away win to me.
Halifax 1pt @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Bromley 2pts @ 7/4 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/4 with BetVictor
Spennymoor 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Betfred
Gloucester 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor

Excellent tipping Darran. Followed exactly. Great calls on Dover and Weston