neilovan

You think that the bookmakers, get the 'value' wrong often. They don't. They have more data, more computing resources, an array of super bright guys crunching the data. We have no real chance of beating them at their own game. But they want to create a balanced, maximize book. That is the artificial part of  the process and that's where you find the 'value'. I call it the imbalance.

Please let's stop it here and I'm looking forward to some picks!

You think that the bookmakers, get the 'value' wrong often. They don't. They have more data, more computing resources, an array of super bright guys crunching the data. We have no real chance of beating them at their own game. But they want to create a balanced, maximize book. That is the artificial part of  the process and that's where you find the 'value'. I call it the imbalance.

Lol, you don't understand basic mathematics. It takes about 6 winners to recover, but I seem to make 8 winners (on average and much more when going really well), for every low priced loser. I don't take big bets on 5 legged bets, so variable staking works, especially when you win big, and lose small/smaller. So in 26 bets if I lose 2 it takes 12 bets to get the 2 lost bets back, but my other 12 bets are all profit.
I tend not to bring up the winning streaks, but 2nd favorites losing first round annoys me, especially from 1 set up and cruising.
5/11/2022Tsitsipas v Dimitrov777386505343Tsitsipas 
5/11/2022Gauff v Brengle737371303343Gauff, Cori 
5/11/2022Jabeur v Tomljanovic778888302714Jabeur, Ons 
5/11/2022C Lui v A Gasanova757571474357C Lui 
5/11/2022Sinner v Fognini778786272742Sinner 
5/12/2022Zverev v De Minuar777386232014Zverev 
5/12/2022Tsitsipas v Khackanov777386202029Tsitsipas 
5/12/2022Sinner v Krajinovic77878623130Sinner 
5/12/2022Jabeur v Putintseva7788100435343Jabeur, Ons 
5/12/2022Wiatek v Azarenka8794100434029Swaitek 
5/13/2022Zverev v Garin777386301314Zverev 
5/13/2022C Lui v V Gracheva757572474043C Lui 
5/17/2022A Molcan v Tsonga758383271414A Molcan 
5/17/2022Kwon v Bedene705050202614Kwon 
5/16/2022Kerber v Parry776729172020A Kerber 
5/16/2022Ruusuvouri v Paire809310023130Ruusuvouri 
5/17/2022C Lui v Rakhamova75100100414557C Lui 
5/17/2022R Marino v P Ormaechea757575332020R Marino 
5/17/2022De Minaur v Humbert7087100403314De Minuar 
5/17/2022Norrie v F Cerundolo809386473663Norrie 
5/17/2022Baez v Otte757186393343Baez 
5/18/2022Ruud v Paire80696323130Ruud 
5/19/2022Opelka v Griekspoor778886323143Opelka 
5/19/2022Ivashka v J Sousa778171203343Ivashka 
5/19/2022Gasquet v Majchrzak73735711120Gasquet 
5/21/2022Ruud v J Sousa776950203343C Ruud 
I am in big profit. Just gotta no react and  take the defeats with the victories. I know the strategy works. Does yours?
I would like to win, and I would like you to win as well. I derive no pleasure from seeing anyone (except the bookmakers) lose.

Lol, you don't understand basic mathematics. It takes about 6 winners to recover, but I seem to make 8 winners (on average and much more when going really well), for every low priced loser. I don't take big bets on 5 legged bets, so variable staking works, especially when you win big, and lose small/smaller. So in 26 bets if I lose 2 it takes 12 bets to get the 2 lost bets back, but my other 12 bets are all profit.
I tend not to bring up the winning streaks, but 2nd favorites losing first round annoys me, especially from 1 set up and cruising.
5/11/2022Tsitsipas v Dimitrov777386505343Tsitsipas 
5/11/2022Gauff v Brengle737371303343Gauff, Cori 
5/11/2022Jabeur v Tomljanovic778888302714Jabeur, Ons 
5/11/2022C Lui v A Gasanova757571474357C Lui 
5/11/2022Sinner v Fognini778786272742Sinner 
5/12/2022Zverev v De Minuar777386232014Zverev 
5/12/2022Tsitsipas v Khackanov777386202029Tsitsipas 
5/12/2022Sinner v Krajinovic77878623130Sinner 
5/12/2022Jabeur v Putintseva7788100435343Jabeur, Ons 
5/12/2022Wiatek v Azarenka8794100434029Swaitek 
5/13/2022Zverev v Garin777386301314Zverev 
5/13/2022C Lui v V Gracheva757572474043C Lui 
5/17/2022A Molcan v Tsonga758383271414A Molcan 
5/17/2022Kwon v Bedene705050202614Kwon 
5/16/2022Kerber v Parry776729172020A Kerber 
5/16/2022Ruusuvouri v Paire809310023130Ruusuvouri 
5/17/2022C Lui v Rakhamova75100100414557C Lui 
5/17/2022R Marino v P Ormaechea757575332020R Marino 
5/17/2022De Minaur v Humbert7087100403314De Minuar 
5/17/2022Norrie v F Cerundolo809386473663Norrie 
5/17/2022Baez v Otte757186393343Baez 
5/18/2022Ruud v Paire80696323130Ruud 
5/19/2022Opelka v Griekspoor778886323143Opelka 
5/19/2022Ivashka v J Sousa778171203343Ivashka 
5/19/2022Gasquet v Majchrzak73735711120Gasquet 
5/21/2022Ruud v J Sousa776950203343C Ruud 
I am in big profit. Just gotta no react and  take the defeats with the victories. I know the strategy works. Does yours?
I would like to win, and I would like you to win as well. I derive no pleasure from seeing anyone (except the bookmakers) lose.

Almost with surprise and compassion I watch tipsters betting several legged matches with very small odds.
How long does it take to recover with just one missed match?
Later we are witnesses of the lamentation of these heroic investors

This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times

This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

I think Swaitek to win just looks so solid. What it it now ... 27 matches undefeated?  Nobody can touch her at the moment

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

For my system I am not betting sets or handicaps. Just straight low priced favorites to win with certain conditions.

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

So it's kind of interesting. If you take French open 2021, ATP with favorites win odds between between 0.02 and 0.13 you get odds around even money on a -5.5 game handicap bet. But there were 22 winners and only 5 losers in 2021, and this type of bet would have won money every year of the last 6 years. Looking at Ruud today, -5.5 is even money to cover, and the the probability is that he will do it. I will change the viz to let a user select all tournaments, and choose a surface, and it will show the results for all clay court matches (when selected)

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.