neilovan

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.
4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.
 
For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.
At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.
Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.
 
1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.
2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.
3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)
Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 
 
 
 
 
 

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.
4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.
 
For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.
At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.
Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.
 
1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.
2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.
3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)
Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 
 
 
 
 
 

If I was Darren Cahill I would be ashamed of myself. Given a Rolls Royce and drove it like a VW beetle. Halep has always had unbelievable athletic ability, but has been scared to play 1 strike tennis.  For years she has played with the wrong tactics, and could have achieved so much more. To really be able to win big, you have to not be scared to lose, and Halep has been way to conservative. Too late to change now,
This game will be decided by how well CIrstea returns. Halep could be under tremendous serve pressure.

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.
4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.
 
For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.
At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.
Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.
 
1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.
2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.
3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)
Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 
 
 
 
 
 

If I was Darren Cahill I would be ashamed of myself. Given a Rolls Royce and drove it like a VW beetle. Halep has always had unbelievable athletic ability, but has been scared to play 1 strike tennis.  For years she has played with the wrong tactics, and could have achieved so much more. To really be able to win big, you have to not be scared to lose, and Halep has been way to conservative. Too late to change now,
This game will be decided by how well CIrstea returns. Halep could be under tremendous serve pressure.

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.
4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.
 
For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.
At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.
Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.
 
1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.
2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.
3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)
Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 
 
 
 
 
 

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.
4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.
 
For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.
At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.
Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.
 
1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.
2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.
3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)
Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 
 
 
 
 
 

Watched some of the Radacanu match against Petra Martic. After the first set had had enough. NO bet, but I really expected Radacanu to power through and win. Folds up like a deck chair, against an opponent she should beat. Zverev drops the ball (again), but that temper will stop him from reaching his full potential. Osaka, Muguruza, Sabalenka, Zverev, Carreno-Busta, Bencic all ejected, switched off, knocked out, KO'ed, sent to bed with no dinner!
Human nature is to dwell on the negative. So if you have 4 experiences, of equal size (2 positive and 2 negative), for most people the negatives outweigh the positives (even though they are equal). The positives are dismissed quickly, the negatives linger. So when you start losing, early rounds, the negative experience lingers, and festers. DO it for a few weeks in a row and it grows, subconsciously, and you land up carrying negative residual energy around with you.
This stuff applies very much to tennis and Poker. Indian Wells this week , Miami next week. But for a guy like Zverev, with a racquet smashing tantrum one week, and an early defeat here. it's a body blow. Damn, lost 1st or 2nd round, now I gotta sit around and wait 10 days. Hotels, taxi's , flights, check-in, security, being away from home is a pain in the backside after a while. It gets magnified when you are losing. In a 128 draw 75% of the contestants have lost by the end of round 2. SO most people have to find a way to handle the losing, while the winning is done by a disproportionally smaller group.  Some people have a huge disadvantage mentally here.
Anyway, enough of the psychology.
Three upsets in the mens. I like Opelka to beat Shapavalov and Broosky to beat Tsitsipas. In both matches absolutely nothing between them. Opelka coming off a (6-1 6-4) demolition  of Musetti, is playing well. If he was not returning well, you would expect a breaker or maybe two, but he broke serve at least 3 times. Strong indicator that the ground game is working.
Brooksby blew Khachanov away (6-0 6-3), and I think he will win against Tsitsipas. I don't know how much the Ukraine war is affecting Russian players, but it must have some effect. But Brooksby played very well. He is ultra aggressive on the return of serve (did this against Tsitsipas last time), and I think it will pay dividends. He ran him very close in Acapulco and I think he does the job here.
Kyrigos to beat Ruud. Kyrigos may be an atypical tennis player, but he is very talented. Great serve, and a very deceptive game. The serve is such a quick strike, on a rising ball toss, and it makes it very difficult to figure out where he's hitting it. Probably a breaker or two in this (close) match, with Kyrigos to prevail behind his rocket serve.
 
Really not sure why Azarenka is such a huge favorite over Rybakina. For me a very close game and a possible upset. I also think Petra Kvitova is finding her game and could get past Sakkari. 

Watched some of the Radacanu match against Petra Martic. After the first set had had enough. NO bet, but I really expected Radacanu to power through and win. Folds up like a deck chair, against an opponent she should beat. Zverev drops the ball (again), but that temper will stop him from reaching his full potential. Osaka, Muguruza, Sabalenka, Zverev, Carreno-Busta, Bencic all ejected, switched off, knocked out, KO'ed, sent to bed with no dinner!
Human nature is to dwell on the negative. So if you have 4 experiences, of equal size (2 positive and 2 negative), for most people the negatives outweigh the positives (even though they are equal). The positives are dismissed quickly, the negatives linger. So when you start losing, early rounds, the negative experience lingers, and festers. DO it for a few weeks in a row and it grows, subconsciously, and you land up carrying negative residual energy around with you.
This stuff applies very much to tennis and Poker. Indian Wells this week , Miami next week. But for a guy like Zverev, with a racquet smashing tantrum one week, and an early defeat here. it's a body blow. Damn, lost 1st or 2nd round, now I gotta sit around and wait 10 days. Hotels, taxi's , flights, check-in, security, being away from home is a pain in the backside after a while. It gets magnified when you are losing. In a 128 draw 75% of the contestants have lost by the end of round 2. SO most people have to find a way to handle the losing, while the winning is done by a disproportionally smaller group.  Some people have a huge disadvantage mentally here.
Anyway, enough of the psychology.
Three upsets in the mens. I like Opelka to beat Shapavalov and Broosky to beat Tsitsipas. In both matches absolutely nothing between them. Opelka coming off a (6-1 6-4) demolition  of Musetti, is playing well. If he was not returning well, you would expect a breaker or maybe two, but he broke serve at least 3 times. Strong indicator that the ground game is working.
Brooksby blew Khachanov away (6-0 6-3), and I think he will win against Tsitsipas. I don't know how much the Ukraine war is affecting Russian players, but it must have some effect. But Brooksby played very well. He is ultra aggressive on the return of serve (did this against Tsitsipas last time), and I think it will pay dividends. He ran him very close in Acapulco and I think he does the job here.
Kyrigos to beat Ruud. Kyrigos may be an atypical tennis player, but he is very talented. Great serve, and a very deceptive game. The serve is such a quick strike, on a rising ball toss, and it makes it very difficult to figure out where he's hitting it. Probably a breaker or two in this (close) match, with Kyrigos to prevail behind his rocket serve.
 
Really not sure why Azarenka is such a huge favorite over Rybakina. For me a very close game and a possible upset. I also think Petra Kvitova is finding her game and could get past Sakkari. 

A few matches I do like today.
Schwartzman to beat Ruusovouri. Perfect match up for Schwartzman, on a slowish court. Should suite him well. Odds of 1.61 quite generous here.
For me Kudermetova  beats Buzkova quite handily, and I find a price of  1.8 really good. 
I also like  Cirstea to beat Anna Kalinskaya. Cirstea definitely in form and flying at the moment. She looks a very good athlete and very comfortable with her game at the moment. Price of 1.57 is good.
Will take the above treble and a double of Cirstea and Schawartzman.
3 Low priced matches : Di Minaur v Millman. Di Minuar having beaten Millman in each of the last 3 meetings and I expect a repeat of the medicine here.  For me Sam Querry is almost coming to the end of his career. Very similar stage to Kevin Andersen, where the results are just not flowing. I expect Isner to dispatch him relatively easily. 3rd low price of the day is Taylor Fritz to beat Kamil Majchrzak. Fritz at home will be very comfortable , and should win easily.
The above 3 as a treble (Fritz, Di Minaur, Isner)
I do  see some upsets today. I just don't see Kerber beating an in form Kasatkina. I would be scared to put 1 cent on Lloyd Harris at the moment. He is playing really poor tennis, and also lost a Davis cup match last week for South Africa. I think that Aslan Karatsev is on the edge of a mini melt down. 1) He had this amazing break out year last year, and has been defending too many ranking points. It creates huge pressure . 2) The guys has been playing so many matches, and I think he probably needs a break for 4 weeks to recharge and recuperate. Looks flat to me.

Expecting one or two upsets (will settle for one) between Gracheva and Kucova and in another match between Konjah and Boulter. Nothing between these players, and the odds are just way too low on both favorites in my opinion.  Two favorites I do like are Cornet and Paolini.  Not huge odds but as a double it's 5 to 10 which is ok for me. Not a huge bet, but a win is a win.

ANd that's my form. I reckon I have had 10 to 15 retirements by players that were getting spanked. Yet when player is on the end of a hiding, they hang in there and get demolished.

Simply no way I would be betting Rublev today. Vesely is just on an amazing run. Beating Popyrin, Cilic, Bautista Agut, Djokovic and  Shapavalov is amazing! Absolutely no easy matches there. Interestingly he has won 5 out of 7 tie breakers in these matches. So while not doing anything incredible returning, he is bringing it serving. 
Because of the tie breakers I would be taking him +3.5 at odds of 1.71 . I don't think Rublev will dominate his serve, and Vesely could easily win a breaker (considering his record). Even if he loses a breaker, is Rublev capable of breaking him twice in another set? Rublev must win the breaker and the next set 6-3 or better.... Hmm , not for me.
 

Definitely think there is value in betting on the WTA qualifiers for Lyon today. It's a simple theory, but the lower the quality of the contestants, and the shorter the contest, the more unpredictable the outcomes. So a qualification tournament will throw up some surprises.
Blinkova plays Korpatsch, and is a huge fav (1.16 to 5.0). I expect this to be a close match, considering Korpatsch won a set the last time they played (8th Feb). For me a small bet on the underdog here.  
ANother expected very close match is between Tatjana Maria and Anastasia Gasanova. Really not much to choose between them and a price of 2.75 on Gasanova is reasonable.
Don't expect both upsets, but will take as two small bet singles, and if one wins I'm in the money.

I watched the Vesely v Cilic match, and Vesely served really well. Absolutely hitting the eyes outta it on the serve. Cilic couldn't get near it. Don't want to body shame, but Vesely looks really out of shape (for a pro). Carrying at least 7 kgs of excess mass.

I have 1 main bet today. It is three legs but returns 2.4 to 1. 
First match is Konteveit v Mertens.  For me this is actually a no-contest. Konteveit probably the hottest player in woman's tennis at the moment. Hitting the ball with power and purpose. A price here of 1.4 is a gift, because she should be about 1.2 . Mertens not playing particularly well, and just got over the line against Paolini (who served for the match in the 3rd set).
Second match is Djokovic v Khachanov. Djoko looks sharp, and it is a perfect style matchup for him. Would be taking Djoko on the -4.5 handicap at 1.72. Just can't see him losing his serve, and the game styles are very similar. Djoko just does things on the court at a higher level.
Third match is Sabalenka v Tiechmann. Again for me a no contest. I don't even care how bad Sabalenka serves ... she has too much power off the ground, and she is hitting it really well. I watched her match against Kostyk, and I think this one is similar. Quite a few serve breaks but Tiechmann gets overpowered here.
Could take the same bet but instead take Sabalenka -3.5 (also at 1.72). The odds for Konteveit, Djoko (-4.5), Sabalenka (-3,5) work out around (1.4*1.72*1.72)-1 = 3.14. Slightly riskier and not worth it in my opinion.
 

I have 1 main bet today. It is three legs but returns 2.4 to 1. 
First match is Konteveit v Mertens.  For me this is actually a no-contest. Konteveit probably the hottest player in woman's tennis at the moment. Hitting the ball with power and purpose. A price here of 1.4 is a gift, because she should be about 1.2 . Mertens not playing particularly well, and just got over the line against Paolini (who served for the match in the 3rd set).
Second match is Djokovic v Khachanov. Djoko looks sharp, and it is a perfect style matchup for him. Would be taking Djoko on the -4.5 handicap at 1.72. Just can't see him losing his serve, and the game styles are very similar. Djoko just does things on the court at a higher level.
Third match is Sabalenka v Tiechmann. Again for me a no contest. I don't even care how bad Sabalenka serves ... she has too much power off the ground, and she is hitting it really well. I watched her match against Kostyk, and I think this one is similar. Quite a few serve breaks but Tiechmann gets overpowered here.
Could take the same bet but instead take Sabalenka -3.5 (also at 1.72). The odds for Konteveit, Djoko (-4.5), Sabalenka (-3,5) work out around (1.4*1.72*1.72)-1 = 3.14. Slightly riskier and not worth it in my opinion.
 

Harris already set his stall out at the Aussie open when he showed up to play, not having played a warm up match. Simply ridiculous to waste an opportunity with no preparation, but you don't know what is going on behind the scenes. A family member could be ill, a pet dies,  stuff happens that can have devastating consequences.
I think some of the going's on at these tournaments are simply ridiculous. How on earth can you have a tennis match that starts at 1.20am and finishes at 4.50am ? These are world class athletes, putting in serious taxi, hotel, travel miles and they are treated like sheep. How do you train for a match that starts at 1am?
Zverev v Brooksby makes a farce of the ATP and it is simply unacceptable! 

No, but it's not as easy as you suggest. Even though the guy is cramping you still have to beat him, and it's not easy. Its as hot as hell, you are tired, and the guy is swinging for the fences. It is not straight forward.

Watched the Garcia v Halep match yesterday, and it's the best I have seen Garcia play in years. She looked like the world #4 she used to be. Moved well, served great, hit the ball in the corners ... showed no nerves when serving for the match. She outplayed Halep at her own game, though for me Halep's coaches and tacticians should be ashamed. She hits every ball down the middle of the court. It is ridiculous, passive, backfoot tennis, which becomes reactive. Serena dominated the woman's game with proactive, front foot tennis, aggressive tactics. Halep did not manage a break of serve in the match, which is really unusual. If Garcia can repeat the dose again today, she has a very good chance of beating Gauff.
I think the Pegula v Juvan match will be close. No way Pegula should be as low as 1.33 against someone who just beat Sabalenka. Juvan an up and coming star, won two qualifiers and then had a comfortable win over Stefanie Vogele in her first main draw match. Obviously ready for the conditions.

Maybe my bet is half motivated by my dislike for Djoko ?

Interesting thoughts about the Djokovic match @neilovan
I'm going completely the other way though. I think Djokovic wins and wins dominantly. Sometimes motivation can be an issue with the top players which can lead to sloppy performances and shock losses, but in this case I expect Djokovic to be completely focussed. He needs a big week if he's going to remain number one, plus he's bound to be frustrated with what happened in Australia and will want to move on quickly.
To do that he needs to at least beat Musetti, otherwise there'll be questions about whether the AO situation is still lingering and if it might have a longer-term impact on his performances. The conditions should improve Musetti's chances, but he has no form to speak of since he blew a big lead against Djokovic at the French. Even if he gets into a good position in the match, that's sure to play on his mind and so I don't think he wins this match no matter what way it develops.

Some days the pickings look a little slim. It's almost better to throttle back, and not risk too much. Whatever you don't lose is money you don't need to make back.
I would be quite surprised to see Goffin get past Daniel today. Goffin just looks like 1/2 the player he was, and injuries in tennis are brutal. They take a long time to recover. They also lead to compensation injuries. ie You have a left knee injury, and you land up getting right hip pain etc.  I think the 8/10 on Daniel is reasonable.
My surprise for the day is Musetti to beat Djokovic. Musetti definitely has the game to do this. Playing well, looking physically strong. That looping deep ball, that he used against Djoko at the French a few years ago, gave DJoko a lot of problems. I think he takes a set at least, but am going small bet for the outright win.
For me Grigor Dimitrov is underdone and underplayed. I think he struggles with Cressey, and loses a close 3 setter. Cressey have a breakout year, playing well.
Watching the woman's match between Svitolina and Martincova. Blowing nicely  which levels the paying field, and a strange court, with tree shadows (not great for a pro event), makes it tricky to see the ball when it comes in/out of the shadow.  Think you will see a few surprises in that wind.

Some days the pickings look a little slim. It's almost better to throttle back, and not risk too much. Whatever you don't lose is money you don't need to make back.
I would be quite surprised to see Goffin get past Daniel today. Goffin just looks like 1/2 the player he was, and injuries in tennis are brutal. They take a long time to recover. They also lead to compensation injuries. ie You have a left knee injury, and you land up getting right hip pain etc.  I think the 8/10 on Daniel is reasonable.
My surprise for the day is Musetti to beat Djokovic. Musetti definitely has the game to do this. Playing well, looking physically strong. That looping deep ball, that he used against Djoko at the French a few years ago, gave DJoko a lot of problems. I think he takes a set at least, but am going small bet for the outright win.
For me Grigor Dimitrov is underdone and underplayed. I think he struggles with Cressey, and loses a close 3 setter. Cressey have a breakout year, playing well.
Watching the woman's match between Svitolina and Martincova. Blowing nicely  which levels the paying field, and a strange court, with tree shadows (not great for a pro event), makes it tricky to see the ball when it comes in/out of the shadow.  Think you will see a few surprises in that wind.

From a system software point, it likes Carreno Busta for the win, but it's right on the edge of  being viable. The problem is that you don't really know which Fognini pops out the box. If he wakes up and feels like putting the effort in, he can be ridiculously good. There are few players on the ATP tour with his level of raw talent. 
I just feel that Fognini has not played enough, and may just tank it when/if it starts going against him. His ranking has gone from 12 to 36 which is a pretty solid indicator that his results, for whatever reason, are diminishing. How many more years does he want to spend on the road instead of at home with a young family?