Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: FC Bayern München v Arsenal > Wed 13th March Overs is not an optimal choice here, because Bayern has the best defense in Europe and I am not at all sure Arsenal will get a goal (I actually consider it more likely they fail to do so). Even Dortmund, which have much better attack than Arsenal, managed to score just one goal out of two games at Allianz Arena this season, and created 2 or 3 chances for 180 minutes of football. Podolski is doubtful and Arsenal does not have a clinical scorer. Guys like Walcott need like 3-4 clear-cut chances before they get a single goal and he surely won't get these many chances against Bayern. In my view Bayern -1.5 handicap is more secure than overs and it is better priced. The only worrying thing here is the absence of Ribery, as Bayern would lose a lot of pace on the wings, but they still have too much firepower upfront.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Tomorrow there are the national cup 1/4 finals, first leg. Some suggestions: 1) Levski - Litex Game will be played at closed doors as Levski have been sanctioned for violence at the stands. Levski played terrible football in Plovdiv in weekend and lost deservedly. The tension and pressure on the coach and players is mounting. Several key players will be missing due to suspension and injuries. Litex is in excellent mood at the moment, full-squad, no pressure whatsoever, coach Hristo Stoichkov is doing great job with this young team. They are more than capable of getting at least a draw under these circumstances. Litex or Draw @ 2.00 (bwin) 2. Minyor - Slavia Minyor is surely going to play in the second division next year, unless they cease to exist in the professional football, because the financial crisis is the team is terrible and there's slim hope for positive change. There haven't been any salaries in the team for months and players practically train and play only for glory. The national cup should be of least concern for this team which mere existence is under threat. Slavia, as I wrote several times here, is a team on the rise. They started well, they are playing good football under new coach, and this year they are having a one century anniversary, so there are high ambitions to gain place in Europa League, which is practically possible only through the national cup. I think they will get the job done easily already in the first leg. Slavia @ 1.75 (Marathon)
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Re: Schalke v Galatasaray > Tue 12th March Double chance for Galatasaray at the moment is 2.25 and this is a wonderful and hugely inflated price. Schalke is indeed on the rise in the last few weeks, but I still consider their defense way too poor and disorganized, and think that as a whole the class of Galata is higher. Schalke seem to be enjoying when they enter a game in the position of an outsider, as happened in Istanbul and Wolfsburg, and against Dortmund at home. However, tonight they are in the position of the favorite and I think they feel much less confident when they are considered favorites. Besides, they are missng Huntelaar, who might not be Messi or Cristiano, but is the only clinical goal-scorer in this team. Galata disappointed on Friday at home against Genclerbirligi, but the team played some really great attacking football and deserved to win with a margin, but were very unfortunate. The partnership between Drogba and Yilmaz is working great, and the midfield is performing efficiently. The big concern about Galata is again the defense, such like Schalke. But a very decisive factor in favor of the visitors is their great coach Terim who is definitely much more experienced and higher quality than its Schalke counterpart Keller. Galata or Draw @ 2.25 (bet 365)
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Re: Málaga v FC Porto > Wed 13th March I agree with the under backers here. I will be really surprised if this one goes above the 2.5 borderline. However, I would go even further it my bet and would suggest picking "BTTS: NO". The price is higher by 0.20 and the likelihood is similar to that for unders. This will be a very tactical encounter and none of the teams will expose itself early in the game. I am pretty sure that even Malaga, which need a goal, will wait patiently and won't go totally in attack before the last 15 minutes. An opener for Malaga will make this game even tighter with both teams not willing to take any risks. BTTS: NO @ 1.90 (bet365)
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Re: Barcelona v Milan > Tue 12th March
It is good to remember that Barcelona had probably 2 or 3 decent games since the beginning of the year - Getafe and Espanol at home, and Malaga away. Basically all the rest has been a very poor performance. Meanwhile, Milan is on the rise, and if we take into account the points gained after January 1st, they should be leading Serie A. It is also good to wait for line-ups. If I see the clowns Alcantara and Adriano in the starting eleven, I would never touch Barca on a handicap.Taking the UEFA Mafia -1.5 goals at -120 Sorry guys, I've seen this one too many times. Either Barcelona gets a Milan player sent off or they get a shoddy penalty kick. I know this isn't the best reasoning for a bet, but I have every da-mn reason in the world not to trust UEFA. I also think that Barcelona will be able to break down Milan defensively at the Camp Nou. Milan has been great and they have form in their adavantage as well, but I am going with the Catalans in this battle -
Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13
What a great weekend vitesse won 0-1! Huge profit due ado heerenveen and vitesse. Sad about the over on roda - feyenoord but the match could have easily gone over many chances were missed on both sides. Roda should have scored at least once. Anyways' date=' good games and see you next weekend.[/quote'] It's ironic, isn't it - the huge handicap on Ajax came easy, while the "safe" over at 1.6 failed. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 CSKA - Chernomorets My favorite CSKA is once again in a huge mess before meeting Chernomorets. The team lost in a shameful way at home to Litex last Saturday, after more than decade without a loss in Sofia against this team. The new Serbian coach Jesic, as I expected, turned out to be a complete muppet and amateur. First, he messed up entirely the starting line-up, then he substituted the two most dangerous offensive players for defenders when the team needed to recover a two goal deficit at home with 25 minutes left, giving after the game the insane explanation that he "wanted to spare them as the game was already lost". The Serbian muppet brought with him some Serbian assistants who turned out to have no licenses, so he had to replace them just one day before the start of the season. It seems that the whole winter preparation has been ruined by this bunch of amateurs, as the team seemed to entirely lack physical fitness against Litex. Besides, the defense - which has been the best defense in the league under previous coach, has been absolutely terrible and devastating against Litex, despite featuring the same guys from the first half of the season. On top of all this, the Serbian "specialist" accused publicly his two best and most important players - key striker Platini and captain Bandalovski, for the loss against Litex and took them out of the team for the match tomorrow. There is a lot of info that the players strongly dislike the Serbian and want him out of the team. The club director announced publicly that if the team fails to win tomorrow, the Serbian coach will be fired. I have strong reasons to believe that some of the players will strongly want to see their coach leave as soon as possible and will not mind us failing to win against Chernomorets. I recommend to you two bets: Chernomorets AH+1 (odds will be released tomorrow, but expect them to be around 2.10) andUnder 2.5 @ 1.80 (bet365)As Chernomorets will surely park the bus and CSKA will be without their key striker Platini, who got kicked out of the team by the coach. Also Bandalovski, besides being a full-back, is one of the best dribblers in the team, and his absence will be another factor in favor of unders.
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 So, let's try to recover some of the losses from today. Ajax - Zwolle Ajax have undergone a micro-crisis in the last few weeks - the team missed two consecutive home wins against weak teams (something which happens very rarely) and meanwhile was beaten by AZ at Amsterdam Arena for the Dutch Cup and got eliminated by Steaua in EL. This sums up to three consecutive home games from Ajax gained just two points. As there are no important absences in Ajax, the straightforward explanation for the crisis is the very dense schedule - playing games every three days for several weeks due to engagements both in EL and Dutch Cup. Now finally, after a month Ajax have had a full week to rest and recover. The team also defeated comfortably rivals from Twente in Entschede which is a good sign for lifting themselves up. As I noted, such bad series at home against mediocre teams is extreme rarity for Ajax, hence now I expect fully recovered Ajax to get back to normality and finally get a convincing win - which is the typical scenario in their home games in Eredivisie. It is also good to remember that Ajax have been extremely unlucky in both home draws with Roda and ADO as they missed countless chances and hit the post a few times. It is time for fortune to turn around and finally smile at Ajax. PSV's failure tonight is additional stimulus for Ajax to make tomorrow's game a cheerful celebration for their fans. I expect that Ajax will gain a big and cozy win, but am confident that they will cover at least two goals difference. Ajax AH -2 @ 1.95 Roda - PSV Not too much to analyze - we have two of the most over-ish sides meeting each other in Kerkrade. Both teams scoring and conceding goals like a piece of cake. Both teams with full motivation to chase the victory and attack - Roda playing in front of their own fans, where they usually score a lot, and trying to escape from relegation play-offs, while Feyenoord chasing Ajax and PSV and feeling this as a must win against a relegation candidate. The price for over 2.5 is 1.60 at the moment, and I feel it should realistically be around 1.40, as it stays usually when similar high-scoring Eredivisie sides meet. Over 2.5 @ 1.60
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 Terrible day for me - both bets lost. Didn't watch Venlo, but saw PSV. Very bad coaching from Advocaat - he benched both top players Matavz and Toivonen, and put some guy, called Hiljemark, whom I never heard of, despite having seen quite a lot of PSV. The guy was a tragedy and it was like PSV playing with ten men. Very weird decision to play such inexperienced and unknown player for such important game, while keeping two of the top guys on the bench. At half-time, old Advocaat substituted the poor anonymous guy and he put on both Toivonen and Matavz, and PSV dominated entirely the second half and missed plenty of chances to recover the deficit. Yet, not to sound that I am looking for excuses, there has been also an error of judgment on my behalf - I said Dries Mertens is enough as he is a great player, however, as Lens and Narsingh were absent and there was no other sharp and good dribbler on the wing besides Mertens, Heerenveen defense totally concentrated on marking the flank where Dries Mertens was operating.
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 Willem - Venlo I feel I must try Venlo here in the derby of the bottom. Venlo is surely a team that plays away better than at home. Their defense is much more stable and compact when they visit and they seem to be enjoying the empty spaces they are left with. Their away schedule so far have been terrible - visits to PSV, Ajax, Twente, Heracles, Heerenveen. Still, they didn't lose by more than two goals at any of these stadiums (managed a draw in Heracles and Heerenveen, where they had to win - they were leading 2-0), which is not a bad accomplishment for a bottom team. They have so far two away victories, one of them very impressive - at AZ Alkmaar. Willem is hopelessly at the bottom of the table and they have little chances of survival. If they want to keep a thin hope alive, they must at any price win this game. Which means they will have to attack a lot against a team that knows how to defend on their visits, and they will inevitably leave a lot of empty space for Venlo to explore. The pressure is totally on Willem's shoulders - they must win this game, while Venlo will be more relaxed, as they are at relegation play-offs with 8 points advantage before Willem. Moreover, Willem is missing some players: Vossebelt (midfielder, 22 m, 3 g), Podevijn (attacker, 17 m, 2 g), Mulder (midfielder, 22 m, 2 g). Venlo 2,70
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13
I second that! Price on Vitesse is shockingly huge! Yes, Twente are practically already pushed against the wall and they must bounce-back, but I don't think they got the resources at the moment - their attack is a joke without Chadli (even with him it is nothing special), their defense is deteriorating with every match, the micro-climate in the team is ruined. Vitesse underwent a crisis which coincided with Bony's departure for CAN but now the team is back on track and back to their best form. I was really impressed by them last week against Utrecht and how well they controlled the game against a very tough opponent.Value bet in this round has to be Vitesse.. Unbelievable odds' date=' and I seriously can't think of any way how they calculated these odds.. Twente is on a terrible run collecting 2 points out of the last 5 games. They couldn't even beat Willem 2 at home and that is seriously one of the weakest teams in the Eredivisie. Their head coach already resigned and now his assistent takes over for a while. Now douglas [their best defender'] is punished due inproper behaviour and is removed out of the team for atleast this game. Their right back Rosales will also miss this game and Chadli is also still injured. I can't see Vitesse losing here in a million years. They are having a great season so far winning the last 3 games with 2 cleansheets and 9 goals scored. Bony is such a class player and too good for this league in my opinion. Theo Janssen is back for this game and that is also a big boost for the team. His vision and pace is crucial for the fast wingers vitesse has. Full squad available and 3.60 for the away win is absurd. I expect that the Odds will go down for sure till sunday afternoon so I took some early bets. double chance with high stakes on Vitesse and medium stakes on the away win. Twente conceded goals in every single game last 5 and I'm very confident Vitesse will do the same. They have a great motivation for getting back in the top 3 and they have to win this one if they wanna keep up. Morale can't be great at Twente and I think we will see them suffer again on sunday. Don't get me wrong normally I like twente for their attacking football but this season and especially after the winter break they lack something I dont know what but it is big.. Goodluck all. -
Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13
Over 2.5 is 1.30 and Over 3.5 is 1.83! This is such a crap value, it is a crime taking such robbery from the bookies. I don't know why you get the idea that PSV has weak defense - only Twente and Ajax have conceded less goals, but you have to take in mind that many of the goals conceded by PSV took place in games when PSV was beating heavily their opponents and could afford losing concentration for a while. Of course, it would be a surprise if this game does not go over 2.5, but it certainly isn't worth 1.3, except for people willing to take such cut-off prices thinking they got a "secure 10/10 bet". I personally wouldn't be surprised if Heerenveen does not net a goal, and in such case you would have to rely on PSV to do the whole job on their own. The same goes for the other two games. I know it sounds very fascinating, but not every game of PSV, VItesse, Ajax, Heracles, Roda and ADO ends with over 2.5. Bookies are not idiots and they know how to make money out of such popular public bets - by cutting drastically coefficients for instance. Man, you seem to be constantly chasing each favorite bet at crap price in every possible league and competition - didn't you already find out that it does not work out this way or else all the bookies would have gone bankrupt?! -
Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 Heerenveen - PSV I fancy another big victory for PSV here, although on paper this should be a hard place to visit. Not anymore in my opinion - Heerenveen were a very good home team in the past years, but selling off many key players, this season they are much weakened. They have only two top class players - young Serb talent Djuricic and the goal-machine from Iceland Finnbogason, who replaced successfully Bas Dost. Under some conditions, also winger Van La Parra can be considered quality, however, everything else in Van Basten's team is crap and very low quality. Their defense is comical at moments, and their midfield not only lacks basic creativity, but their mistakes regularly give start to dangerous counter-attacks. Heerenveen is e perfect match for PSV - a team that plays very offensively, but has got poor midfield and defense. I put this team in the same place with Heracles, ADO and Roda. The scores of PSV against this type of teams this season are breathtaking - 5:1 vs Heerenveen, 6:1 and 7:0 vs. ADO, 5:0 against Roda, 4:0 and 5:1 against Heracles. As I said, Heerenveen's midfield is weak and this is the key factor in this handicap bet. If you watch PSV, you would know that the majority of their high goal tally is achieved in exactly the same fashion - stealing the ball from opposition midfield and after few quick passes bringing an attacker face to face with the goal-keeper. Hence, it is never a good thing to have a midfield prone to passing mistakes when playing PSV - they move the ball so quickly on the counter-attack. PSV have some problems with missing players - key attackers Lens (suspension) and Narsingh (long-term injury) are missing. However, they can easily be replaced with similar quality players as PSV has enormous potential up-front. Their best attackers and probably the best player in Eredivisie - Dries Mertens, is on fire at the moment, and he is the only attacker of PSV whose absence is difficult to be compensated. Young talent Locadia will play and he is definitely no worse than Lens or Narsingh - he has got 9 goals so far, despite having just little playing time, and he scored a hat-trick last Wednesday in Zwolle. PSV -1.5 @ 2.30
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Re: Manchester United v Real Madrid > Tue 5th March Guys, just a piece of advise - if you are about to bet on goals, I think it is a better idea to pick BTTS rather than overs. The coefficient is a bit lower, but it is a way safer option. Definitely both teams are full of goals and we could see plenty of them tomorrow. However, I am afraid that if the score gets 1:1, this could change completely the course of the game - from very attacking football to a stalemate. I remember last year's second semi-final in Madrid between Real and Bayern - crazy attacking in the first 30 minutes from both sides, but when Bayern scored and made the score 2:1 (i.e. equalizing the two teams), the game changed a lot and there were just few other chances.
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Re: Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 2nd March Are Chelsea trustworthy at 1.4 even at Stamford?! Queens Park, Southampton, Swansea, Sparta Praha - these names should ring a bell. WBA are not worse than any of these. They showed already some really good stuff away from home against teams from Chelsea's caliber. A draw at White Hart Lane and a win at Anfield, plus a really impressive performance at Old Trafford. Do you remember this game in late December - WBA outplayed United for the entire second half and were very close to equalizing on several occasions before RVP scored a second one in extra time. Solid defense plus dangerous set pieces is not a good match-up for Chelsea, especially when they are very wasteful up-front, which is very likely if Torres is on the pitch again.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Bulgarian A PFG is opening up its spring session this Friday with the game: Slavia - Botev Analyzing both teams, I see absolutely no reason why Botev is the bookie's favorite. Slavia is such an improved team after new coach Vutsov took over in December. As I have mentioned here, he might not be an amazing trainer, but he is a great motivator and this skill always shows as the teams he coaches always have strong fighting spirit and high morale. Slavia defeated Botev twice since Vutsov took over - 3:0 in Sofia and 1:0 in Plovdiv for the Cup. Slavia had some good results during the winter preparation like a victory over Romanian Vaslui. The team is full of very experienced players - the veterans Lazarov, Yanchev and goalkeeper Petkov (all three with hundreds of games in A PFG and local legends), the former Bulgaria international and Bundesliga player Chavdar Yankov, the former Japan international Matsui, the very experienced and solid defender Zhelev, one of the most promising defenders in A PFG - Zlatkov, solid Serb midfielder Popara - an object of interest for the local top teams.....Yes, many of these guys are 30+, but they are top dogs and should never be underestimated. I am not sure Botev have better players. I see only two top players in their team - the young super-talent Nedelev and the great experienced striker Tsvetkov. All the rest are players who are not better than Slavia's. Botev has signed a new manager during the winter - Stanimir Stoilov. The guy is controversial, as he had two great seasons with Levski in the beginning of his career, but it was back in 2006, and since then everything he has done has been huge failure - his last season in Levski, Litex Lovech, national team, Anorthosis (Cyprus). Stoilov has not been recepted well by Botev's fans who wrote a declaration in support of the former manager and warned Stoilov make sure that his hot connection with Levski Sofia will not interfere with his work in Botev. So, surely there will be a lot of tension on Stoilov to deliver results and the fans of Botev will quickly jump at him if he starts badly. In general, the pressure on Botev is high - the fans and media want results and have very high expectations. However, I am not sure that the expectations match the actual potential of Botev. Slavia, in contrast, are relaxed and not under pressure. Slavia @ 3.20 (bet 365)
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Hariton, Chernomorets is doing this exercise every break - they sell several of their best players and they still find cheap foreign talents who are equal or even better than the guys sold. This cycle has repeated a few times and I think coach Dimitar Dimitrov has found some good talents once again. And they have been in financial turmoil for about two years, during which they were very successful against Levski. Of course, I am not saying Chernomorets is favorite or anything. Naturally, Levski are stronger and are the favorite, but at such prices definitely value goes with the home team. Away win should 1.90-2.00, no way on Earth 1.50.Fedar' date=' I agree with all your points but both of you together with Simeon:"There are no major missing players in both camps" are missing other fact. Chernomoretz was left from their top 3 players Boli, Faugh-Porret and Ouattara. The last one has not come in Bulgaria after his play in Africa Cup. These 3 players were maybe the best 3 players of Chernomoretz. Their top scorer V.Hristov has gone to Beroe, they have sold their CB P. Dimov to Levski and some other players also has left the team. The financial situation at Chernomoretz is very bad, not sure what will happen with them. The only thing that left in the team is the coach, yes Dimitrov is very big motivator , but the players are not the same as from the first part of the season. Everything could happen, but result different from AW will be surprise, for me the odds are fair from the bookies. -
Re: all lower leagues and Cups > 2012/13 About Zwolle -PSV: Key striker of PSV Jermaine Lens is suspended for four games, after he got involved in a fight in the tunnel in Rotterdam after the game with Feyenoord. His suspension starts tonight. On the other hand, Ola Toivonen - a very important attacker who got badly injured in October, is coming back and according to Advocaat will play tonight (not sure if he will start). Also Van Bommel is coming back after he served a suspension.
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Re: La Liga > 1st - 4th March
I will disagree with that point. As long as I remember Mourinho always plays full strenght squad. I remember when he was in charge of Inter he used full squad even in Coppa Itali matches' date=' so I doubt he will rotate the squad against Barcelona.[/quote'] Mustafa, I remember Mourinho making two of his players get red cards in a CL game against Ajax, just to make sure they are available for the 1/8th finals. He does play strong squad even in meaningless games, but not when his team has got the match of the year in front of them in just three days. I am sure that the likes of Carvalho, Modric, Essien, Cajehon will start in this game. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Simeon, I strongly disagree with your preview and I think some of the info you are providing to non-Bulgarian punters is very twisted. First, Dimitar Dimitrov might be a "huge Levski fan", but he also has amazing winning record exactly against Levski. You are trying to imply that he will probably gift the game to Levski, and knowing the reputation of Bulgarian football, many non-Bulgarians will believe you. This is simply not true. Second, you are saying Levski is going to be sponsored by Gazprom as it is a confirmed fact, while actually this is far from certain. It is in fact very likely that Gazprom back off from the deal. So for the time being there is no Gazprom factor that can influence betting on Levski games. You are presenting things as if Gazprom already own Levski and they are pushing them for good results, and this is simply a wrong information. The Gazprom deal was designed by the former prime minister, who is a huge fan of Levski. However, the guy resigned and there is nothing signed yet, so probably the whole deal will collapse. And saying that "Gazprom is monitoring Levski's performance" is simply laughable. Third, Champions League has never been mentioned as a goal for Levski from their management. You are again presenting it as if they have invested tones of money and they want CL footie badly, which is again not true. None of the leading Bulgarian clubs have declared CL as a realistic goal, because they know and they have admitted that they are yet too far from CL standards. Fourth, Chernomorets have excellent H2H against Levski lately. In the last five games in Bourgas, Chernomorets have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses. Chernomorets won the last two games in Burgas. Even in Sofia Chernomorets is a very difficult match-up for Levski. I think this information about H2H is much more worthy of mentioning than made-up Gazprom sensational stuff. Fifth, there were even bigger expectations for Levski last spring, but their performance was a complete failure. I don't see how "huge expectations" translates into successful performance. There are huge expectations for Levski each season as a matter of fact. Sixth, I don't think that the current Levski's team is stronger than last year's. And last year's Levski were outplayed twice by Chernomorets, lost 2:0 in Burgas and got a draw in Sofia. In sum, if there is value in this game, it is certainly with the home team. 1.57 for a mediocre Levski away from home to a very difficult opponent like Chernomorets is simply a joke. Chernomorets or Draw 10pt Chernomorets 5pt P.S. Sorry if the tone sounds patronizing but you are presenting this tip like a salesman advertising a product he's trying to sell - very selective, one-sided and exaggerated information.
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Re: La Liga > 1st - 4th March
Mustafa, these odds reflect the CL games several days after El Classico. Yes, Barca have important match as well, but I think the effect on Real will be much bigger. For Mourinho it is win-or-die situation. If his team gets eliminated by United, the whole season will be utter failure and disaster, and it will be the first major failure in Mourinho's career. While if he wins the CL, it will still be considered a good season. Whereas Barca is winning La Liga and probably will win Copa del Rey. They also won two CLs in the last years, so failing against Milan will be bad, but not a disaster. Moreover, Barcelona almost always plays full-strength regardless of their schedule. While Mourinho is very pragmatic in this respect.Real Madrid @ 3.15 against inconsistent Barcelona that lost to Milan :rollin -
Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13
Well, what can I say, guys?! Porto had conceded just one goal at home till two weeks ago, now they concede in two consecutive home games, both times in a very stupid fashion - just one attack for the opposition and Porto's defense fell asleep. :D From now I am telling you, I will insist. And will try this once again for the next home game of Porto.Porto - Rio Ave Drac Blau mentioned some missings in Porto defense and Rio Ave's habit to score away from home. However, stats are merciless - Porto conceded just two goals at home out of ten games. Porto haven't conceded at home against Rio Ave in three consecutive game. Having watched some of Porto's games, I have noticed that they not only don't concede goals, but they just don't let other teams have decent shots towards their goal at Do Dragao. And it is not so much due to great play by Porto's defense and goal-keeper. It is because of Porto's deep and intense pressure, coupled with their possession football. So, it turns out that visiting teams have very little of the ball at Do Dragao and they usually lose it long before they approach the penalty area of Porto. Hence, I don't think that the missing in Porto defense will be so important. There are two key factors in support of my bet. I expect that Porto will be a bit exhausted after Malaga. I don't see them crushing their opponents, it is actually very likely that the first half ends in a draw. But I also don't see Porto missing the victory - it is so unlikely that they fail twice in a row at home against mediocre teams, especially during a tight competition with Benfica. Furthermore, I think that as far as the score is 0:0, or even 1:0 for Porto, Rio Ave will not be eager to leave their area and attack. It is one thing doing counter-attacks against mid-table teams, but it is completely different to try this at Do Dragao - any counter-attack on Rio Ave's part may leave empty areas for Porto's mighty attack to explore. I think Rio Ave will park the bus and defend heavily as they did against Braga at home. No reason to believe they will change their attitude against much stronger team away from home. I see this one finishing 2:0 for Porto. But the best value is in the clean-sheet home win. Porto to win to nil @ 1.83 (bet365) -
Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Porto - Rio Ave Drac Blau mentioned some missings in Porto defense and Rio Ave's habit to score away from home. However, stats are merciless - Porto conceded just two goals at home out of ten games. Porto haven't conceded at home against Rio Ave in three consecutive game. Having watched some of Porto's games, I have noticed that they not only don't concede goals, but they just don't let other teams have decent shots towards their goal at Do Dragao. And it is not so much due to great play by Porto's defense and goal-keeper. It is because of Porto's deep and intense pressure, coupled with their possession football. So, it turns out that visiting teams have very little of the ball at Do Dragao and they usually lose it long before they approach the penalty area of Porto. Hence, I don't think that the missing in Porto defense will be so important. There are two key factors in support of my bet. I expect that Porto will be a bit exhausted after Malaga. I don't see them crushing their opponents, it is actually very likely that the first half ends in a draw. But I also don't see Porto missing the victory - it is so unlikely that they fail twice in a row at home against mediocre teams, especially during a tight competition with Benfica. Furthermore, I think that as far as the score is 0:0, or even 1:0 for Porto, Rio Ave will not be eager to leave their area and attack. It is one thing doing counter-attacks against mid-table teams, but it is completely different to try this at Do Dragao - any counter-attack on Rio Ave's part may leave empty areas for Porto's mighty attack to explore. I think Rio Ave will park the bus and defend heavily as they did against Braga at home. No reason to believe they will change their attitude against much stronger team away from home. I see this one finishing 2:0 for Porto. But the best value is in the clean-sheet home win. Porto to win to nil @ 1.83 (bet365)
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Re: Arsenal v Aston Villa > Sat 23rd February No way any other result besides a comfortable home win. I would have been more worried about Arsenal's likely victory if Arsenal had been amidst a winning streak and felt comfortable. Because they tend to lose concentration under such circumstances and often drop easy points. Now that the pressure upon them and the manager is tremendous, Arsenal will play with maximum concentration and motivation. Aston Villa have some surprises to offer up-front, but they are simply terrible at the back. They concede a few goals with absolute ease nearly every game. I think Arsenal will score a minimum of three goals, so even a goal from AV won't help them much. The value here in my opinion is clearly on Arsenal handicap, despite the enormous away price. We rarely get into this situation when full-squad Arsenal have been hurt badly by recent results and feels great pressure to deliver in a home game against one of the funniest defenses in Premier League. In most games like this, we always have to guess what the motivation of Arsenal will be, will they be able to deliver a quick start or they will begin the game in a slow tempo, etc. Now we get a guaranteed full motivation and highest tempo from Arsenal right from the start. Villa do not have the defensive capacity to deal with it. Arsenal -1.5 @ 1.75 Arsenal -2 @ 2.30
Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Minyor - Slavia 2-5 :D Bet won very easily, feel sorry didn't trust Slavia on a handicap, but just didn't have enough info on the actual condition of Minyor which seems to be worse than expected. As I said, Slavia is a team on the rise which is still undervalued by the betting market, and we should make use of it. Levski - Litex 1-0 :@ Litex totally dominated the game! Levski had one chance, and scored one goal. Scandalous refereeing as a clear Litex goal was annulled in the last minute without any visible reason. :wall Levski's defense is very bad and they will suffer a lot.