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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Simeon, I don't want to offend you, but you are such a dreamer....:eek Only the money, which Ludogorets spent on new signings this summer, are more than the annual budget of Levski. Levski are in deep financial crisis, they lost their best player - Aniete, without whom last season they would have probably fought against relegation; they brought very sh-tty players. Sorry but Levski will finish outside top 3 - Beroe and Litex are much stronger than them at the moment. Ludogorets will be champions with 15+ points difference.
  2. Re: Queens Park Rangers v Chelsea > Sunday April 12th You're right. I've no idea what happened to Burnley's manager mind. Around Christmas time and early January they are playing one of the most entertaining football in Premier League. They were courageous and risk-takers, and it did pay off for them as they earned many points, some of which at the most difficult venues. In the last 5-6 weeks Burnley have been playing some ugly negative football and it doesn't give them any profit, apart from beating Man City once. They will go down if they don't change their attitude. It has always been a rule in Premier League that a team in the relegation zone in the end of March can salvage themselves only through attacking football and taking big risks, including playing offensive in the visits to top 4 teams. Just remember Sunderland last season and Wigan before that. Now Aston Villa began to play attacking football, after they were the ugliest team in the league for many months, and they are already far away from relegation. Leicester also have become very bold and it might pay off for them. But Burnely deserves to go down if they go on with this negative football.
  3. Re: FA Cup > February 14th - 16th Definitely NOT at this moment. Terrible Dzeko, awful Jovetic, poor Navas, Bony not playing yet - even Aguero before Wednesday was out of form. City's attack had been struggling to create anything in the last few weeks. This game should have goals in it. Middlesbrough not only scored twice at Etihad, but they had other 5 clean chances and only Caballero (and the post) spared City huge humiliation. There is a lot of pace and attacking flair in this Brough team.
  4. Re: Real Madrid v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday December 9th Guys, no disrespect, but you must be crazy to back Real to win to nil at such odds in a meaningless game in which Ronaldo will be chasing Messi's goal record in CL.... Ludogorets will try everything possible to get on the score-sheet - they anything else but a cowardly team - and failed to score only once so far in the CL. If Real takes some good advantage, then the likelihood of away goal will be very big, as Real's midfield might no longer provide proper protection for their defense, and their full-backs might become much more adventurous going forward. Take for instance Real's opening match with Basel - after the White Ballet quickly decided the game outcome, Basel not only scored a goal, but they have at least 3 more clean chances to put another one behind Cassilas. Just watch highlights from that game to see how many gaps were there in Real's defense after they were 3 goals up-front. In my eyes this is a bad bet, and I would actually suggest otherwise - good value for BTTS.
  5. Re: Romania 2014/2015 Outstanding performance, mate!
  6. Re: Ludogorets Razgrad v Real Madrid > Wednesday October 1st
  7. Re: Ludogorets Razgrad v Real Madrid > Wednesday October 1st A bit off-topic. Ludogorets indeed have no fans. They are from a very small town and before 2010, they were playing only in lower divisions and village groups. Then, they were taken over by mighty local oligarch and you know the story. The people at Anfield were just some Bulgarian diaspora in UK, who out of nostalgia, would cheer for anything carrying the Bulgarian banner on it. In addition, Ludo has many "paid" supporters for Euro games - people mainly from their owner factories, who are obliged to attend games, and they get free tickets and free travels for this. However, in the local A PFG away derbies they usually have 5-6 people only in the visiting stand. Yes, the stadium will be absolutely full, but it is a big difference between a full stadium, consisting of non-supporters and people with little football culture on one side, and a stadium, full of passionate supporters. They just got no songs and no real support, and they keep quiet for very long spells of the game. If it was CSKA, Levski, Botev or Lokomotiv Plovdiv game, then the home factor would have been much more stronger and considerable.
  8. Re: FC Basel v Liverpool > Wednesday October 1st I am not very passionate about goals here, mainly because of Liverpool. It is just not working for them at the moment in the midfield and attack. They lose most of their flair and pace without Sturridge. Balotelli is a liability for them at the moment - he is keeping the ball for too long, slowing down their attack a lot, he is not taking active part in the deep pressing of Liverpool, and he simply doesn't seem to fit Rodgers' football philosophy. Besides that, Coutinho is totally out of form, and he is another key player who can give penetration and rhythm to Liverpool attack. The new signings in attack have zero contribution so far. All in all, Liverpool doesn't create even 1/3 of the chances they used to create last year. So, if Basel takes the lead and decided to defend it, I see it very hard for Liverpool to quickly get back in the game and make the over 2.5 happen.
  9. Re: Liverpool v Everton > Saturday September 27th I just cannot think of anything better than backing goals in this game. I know odds are not fantastic, but if you want, you can always wait for 5-10 minutes and get decent odds. But goals should be on the menu for very simple reasons: - This fixture features exclusively goals. One of the very few exceptions was two seasons ago at Anfield (0:0), but then Everton were clearly playing for a draw. - Both teams in dire need for 3 points in their quest for top 4. They missed both too many points in recent weeks and even a draw will compromise heavily their CL ambitions. I think this is a guarantee for two key things that help over-ish games: 1) Fast start, in contrast to many derby games whereas the two teams are examining each other during the first half and don't take risks 2) Both teams opening up, in contrast to one team being clearly happy with a draw. - Both teams perform very bad in defense, especially recently. In my view, poor defensive performance is more important factor for "overs" even than strong attacks. I know there is some sort of mythology about these early afternoon games not being very goal-friendly, but I believe for this particular game, both teams will be fired up from the start. Sturridge's availability will be a huge help for overs backers, but I think there will be many goals even without him.
  10. Re: Juventus v Malmö FF > Tuesday September 16th You're right, he was just suspended against Udinese, that's why he didnt play and this confused me. But I forgot to add the Antonio Conte factor. The architect of these Juventus is not there anymore. It is not clear yet whether Allegri will be up to his standards.
  11. Re: Juventus v Malmö FF > Tuesday September 16th It doesn't matter, even Malmo 2012 is very different team to Malmo 2014, and you are trying to compare Malmo 2014 with Kobenhavn 2012. All that matters are the current teams, the current circumstances correlated to the price available. I have little doubt that Juve will win and very likely they will win by a few....but I just believe it is not a good deal to take the same price as if Pirlo and Vidal were on the pitch, and Conte on the bench, when in fact all of them will be away.
  12. Re: Juventus v Malmö FF > Tuesday September 16th First, Malmo is obviously not a Danish team and I don't understand what relevance the scores of Nordselland have with regards to this match. Second, Malmo in 11/12 was a completely different team compared to Malmo 14/15. You can check yourself how many players from 11/12 are playing for Malmo today. Third, Juventus are missing three of their most influential players - Chiellini, Vidal and Pirlo. And here is the key point - if Vidal, Pirlo and Chiellini were available, you would not have got lower odds for Juve, but the price would have been still the same (you can check the home price for Juve with all key players available against Kobenhavn and Nordselland). So, this is obviously a bad deal - getting a price for Juve without three of the best players as big as the one you would have got with all of them available.
  13. Re: Liverpool v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday September 16th http://int.soccerway.com/teams/netherlands/psv-nv/1517/ Take a look here. During their participation in Europa League (september - mid December 2013), PSV played 11 games in Eredivisie, won only 2, drew 3 and lost 6 matches.
  14. Re: Liverpool v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday September 16th Masturbinho, what kind of comparisons are that?! Ludogorets probably can play equal game with Real Sociedad, then according to your logic, it means that Ludogorets should be big favorites against Real Madrid, who lost 4-2 against Sociedad?! Ludogorets should be better than Stoke City who just defeated Man City at Etihad - surely, Ludogorets should be contender number one for the Premier League title according to this logic. Sorry, but this is plain stupid. You cannot compare international games with domestic games. Makes absolutely no sense. And I already wrote it, but I will repeat it - the only games last season where Ludogorets faced strong and motivated opponents were Basel and Valencia and they were outclassed with ease. PSV were a joke team when they met Ludogorets - they were on a run of 2-3 months without victory in the same autumn of 2014 and they didn't care much for Europa League, hence they were eliminated. Lazio are just a mediocre Serie A team who didn't even make it to Europe this season, plus, they weren't ver motivated as well, as they fielded many substitute players in the first game. In fact, the other very motivated team that Ludogorets met was Chernomorets Odessa and I think the Ukrainians outplayed Ludogorets in both games, but luck and goalkeeper Stoyanov saved them. I don't buy into this Villa match. Every big team in Premier League during the long season has a few of these days when they fail miserably against poor opposition at home. And it is not a coincidence that these failures often happen after international breaks. But I would personally put much more emphasis on the previous game of Liverpool, when they completely schooled and humiliated Spurs, as I think this is the real face of Liverpool.
  15. Re: Liverpool v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday September 16th I would personally be shocked if Ludo manages to cover the +1.5. And even a 2 goal margin defeat will be just if they are very lucky and Liverpool is missing chance after chance. I feel Liverpool will score at least 4 goals and most likely wont concede.
  16. Re: Liverpool v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday September 16th No, the new guy will start, that's confirmed. I don't think he is good enough though. The fact is he started for Sivaspor last season, played in the first 4 games and then never played a game for them again, which doesn't speak good for his quality. And as I said before, even if the 2nd goalkeeper of Ludogorets didn't injure himself and started the game for them, it would still be a huge blow. BEcause the regular goal-keeper Stoyanov (suspended) is the key asset of this team and a guy, without whom, they would never even pass the Europa League group phase. This team has three pillars it is built on - the goal-keeper Stoyanov, the striker Beziak and the attacking midfielder (tre-quartista) Marcelinho. These three guys make the big difference, without them Ludogorets is just a mediocre team. Out of these three pillars, Stoyanov is suspended, Beziak is in terrible form (scored just one goal against Luxemburg Dudelange since the beginning of the season), and only Marcelinho is playing well. If this was some, say, Monday evening Premier League game, when Liverpool enters distracted and not in the best motivation, then team like Ludogorets could surprise them. But in a CL opener after 4 year exit - NEVER! Another important aspect. Ludo are not a physical team. Nothing like the likes of Aston Villa, WBA, Stoke ?tc physical teams, against which Pool often struggles. They are much softer and the team is comprised mainly of lighter and smaller guys, who try to play some local version of tiki-taka. They have just few bigger guys in the team and I can't see how they can cope with Liverpool's huge advantage in physique, speed and technique. I feel that every set piece for Liverpool will be a complete nightmare for Ludogorets, because they s*ck at set pieces even against Bulgarian teams and even with their top goal-keeper Stoyanov, and I see them in huge trouble with some unknown goal-keeper when they have to protect set pieces against players like Lovren, Gerrard, Balotelli and probably Ricky Lambert later in the game.
  17. Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15 Game is played on empty stadium because of riots on the stands so no home advantage for Levski. The financial director of Levski confirmed yesterday that the players didn't receive their salaries and are not happy about it. On top of that, Levski striker Aniete got injured,and since Bozinov left, Levski are with no strikers for this match.
  18. Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15 Simeon, you are aware that Levski hasn't win a single game with more than one goal margin this season?! And yet, you suggest 2.1 is value?! You say Slavia are bad, but do u think they are worse than Loko Plovdiv - a team of youngsters and anonymous players, who had just one week of training sessions, when they almost beat Levski in Sofia?! You fail to mention Levski's pathetic performance in defense and goal-keeping. You also fail to mention that Levski has no good attack and their midfield sucks. Seriously, unless you have some internal info that the game is fixed, I cannot understand your arguments.
  19. Re: Bulgaria: 2014-15 Simeon, what is your argument to believe that odds won't last any longer, even though they are very miserable right now, given Levski's pathetic performance?! When was the last time you saw big drop on odds on A PFG game?! I would assume a big drop only if there was some big factor to trigger it - e.g. Slavia playing with youngsters - but believing in big odds drop because some mediocre guys like Genchev and Fonseca won't play, is delusional. Also you forgot to mention that 2 of the 3 home wins were achieved through extra time winners. And they were both miserably priced for Levski wins - 1.30-1.40. Do you think that winners in extra time justify such crap odds and make them good deal?! Do you think that very poorly playing Levski, which drew their last two home games against Slavia, deserves 1.40 odds and you even call it value?! Also, I think you should have mentioned the reports in local media, according to which the players of Slavia didn't like their previous coach Radukanov and had incentive to kick him out (even Slavia's boss confirmed this). Which means that now that the players achieved their goal, they might play much more motivated.
  20. Re: International Friendlies 3rd Sept - 7th Sept 2014 I doubt it. It is just that this game is getting more attention from bettors in the last 12 hours before kick-off than it does in the previous days. So, it means that the market (i,e. "average bettor") believes the price should be higher. This doesn't mean that the market is right. The big majority of punters who will bet on this game are not familiar with neither of the teams and haven't watched a single game of any of them in the last 2 years. Hence, they are relying mainly from stats from soccerway and similar sites. And when you open soccerway on Qatar you see a lot of "green color" and "orange color", meaning games Qatar won or drew. And you see a lot of "red" for Morocco. This most likely have influenced the most the price move. But if you dig into more detail, you will see Qatar achieved good results either at home or in much weaker competitions. In serious games in World Cup qualifiers, they performed very bad on the road (for instance, 5:1 loss in Uzbekistan). Morocco is at the level of top 3-4 Asian teams (Japan, Iran, Australia). If you research their team, you will see they got a whole plethora of players from good European leagues and teams (unlike Qatar). They were under process of rejuvenation of the team, and this was maybe the key reason (along with the tough group) why they failed to go to Brazil. But they still have much more quality than Qatar. Also, i have seen some home games of Morocco, and the atmosphere is very hot - full stands, vocal support and pyrotechnics - all these make for a hostile environment.
  21. Re: Liverpool v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday September 16th I am not saying Valencia and Pool are similar, i am saying that Valencia at Sofia was the only game where Ludo met a high class team which was motivated and play full squad - something they are gonna experience in Champions League. All the other games were against middle class teams, most of which were highly unmotivated to play in EL (PSV Eindhoven). I don't see how Ludogorets will get points from Pool and strongly disagree with valuing Pool less than Basel. This Liverpool can pose serious challenge to Real for the first place in the group and the games against Ludogorets will be "cat toying with mouse". Liverpool -2.5 should be the bet of the first round.
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