Fedar
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 Heracles - PSV At first sight, this one looks like the most certain "over 2.5" in Europe for the whole week. We have number 1 (PSV) against number 2 (Her.) in the table for overs in Eredivisie - PSV averaging 4.32 goals per match and Heracles averaging 3.74 goals. PSV are terrific goal scorers - they scored 61 goals so far, while the second high scoring team in the league - Ajax, have scored just 45. Heracles are the fourth highest goal-scorers, despite being at 10th place. Everything, including the miserable price of 1.40, suggest over in this match. However, after digging deeper into it, we discover interesting facts. This is the list of all the games between these two teams in Almelo in the last years: 1:1, 0:2, 0:1, 0:2, 0:2, 0:2, 1:1.Not a single game went over 2.5!!! If you research deeper, you will discover that actually most of this games featured late goals, which make them even more underish. It is very curious how such attacking teams produce such low-scoring games. I was wondering whether these teams were probably more defensive in the past seasons?! Heracles have been coached for several seasons by the same coach and more or less have maintained a core of players for a few years. They have shown high scoring throughout all these years, although this season is probably their most productive in terms of goal. PSV have also been for many years famous for being the best goal-scorers in the league. So, it is obviously something about the match-up of these two particular teams that make them produce low-scoring games in Almelo. Furthermore, Heracles have received bad news - these they had to sell their main forward Armenteros and key midfielder Overtoom, and they have no substitutes for them yet. This should hurt Heracles offensive. PSV, on the other hand, are missing attackers Narsingh and Toivonen (both long term). In the previous game, PSV lost in a shameful and surprising way at home to Zwolle. Their defense has been absolutely comical in this game, and veteran holding midfielder Van Bommel took active part in all goals scored by Zwolle after making terrible mistakes. I suppose that the main topic throughout this week training sessions in Eindhoven has been improving their defensive performance. I am confident that after their defenders made themselves look like clowns last week, now they will try to be very concentrated and keep it as tight as possible. Under 3.5 @ 1.80 (bt 365)
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Re: FA Cup > 25th Jan - 27th Jan Brentford - Chelsea I will follow here a very simple, but very consistent pattern exhibited by Chelsea under Benitez - after a disappointing game, they strongly bounce back away from home against a lesser team. 5:1 in Leeds, 4:0 in Stoke, 5:1 in Southampton - and now they face a team much weaker at least than the last two. Add to this the fact that Benitez does not have the habit to disregard Cup competitions and rest players purportedly to keep them for Premier League games - in fact, he rested important starters against QPR in the Premier League and played a full squad team for the FA cup against Southampton several days later. Chelsea -1.5; -2 @ 2.025 (bet 365)
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Re: Copa Del Rey > 23rd Jan - 24th Jan
What's so shocking about that?! That's the normal price Barca gets when playing away to tougher teams, against the weaker teams in Primera they get 1.28, and only against the likes of Real and Atletico (and Valencia sometimes) they get bigger price. Statistically, this is a normal price that reflects their historical performance in such games in the last two seasons.Barca 1.40? Really? Shocking odds -
Re: ACN 2013 - Group B Ghana - Mali I follow the logic of McNasara, but I take it a step further, as I think that this one will so tight that it is not very likely to have a winner in the end. Important factor here is that this game is played earlier today, before DR Congo - Niger. As mentioned above, Mali are in a better position, given their 3 points at the top of the group, so they definitely won't take any risks here and a draw will perfectly suit them, since it will mean that they only need not to lose the last game in order to pass through. However, despite not winning in the first round, Ghana won't be willing to take many risks, either. They have a last game against the group outsider Niger, when the experience and class of the Black Stars, coupled with the supposed lowered spirits of Niger if they are already out by this time, should guarantee a comfortable victory that will see Ghana to the next stage. It is very important to note that if Ghana loses today and DR Congo wins, it will practically mean that the Black Stars are already out of the tournament, as a draw between DR Congo and Mali will suit both teams and help them qualify. Therefore, I think that Ghana won't be taking any risks against strong Mali squad and would strongly prefer to decide everything in the last game against the weakest team in the group. As I mentioned in the beginning, it is a very important factor that this game is scheduled earlier that DR Congo - Niger, because otherwise, the result in the other match could have changed the motivations of both teams. For instance, if Niger had defeated DR Congo, Ghanians would be willing to take much risk against Mali, because the scenario with the last round draw between Mali and Congo will not be functional anymore, and because regardless whether they draw or lose against Mali, Ghanians will still be behind Niger and will have to defeat them to qualify. In alternative example, if DR Congo had beaten with a big margin Niger earlier today, then Mali could have strong incentive to take risks and try to win. Because regardless whether they draw or lose against Ghana, they will still be behind DR Congo (in the first case on goal difference) and will need to defeat them in the last round. But under these circumstances, not knowing the result of the other game, both Mali and Ghana will prefer not take too many risks and will settle with a draw. Draw @ 3.10
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Re: Copa Del Rey > 23rd Jan - 24th Jan Betis - Atletico Clearly don't like betting on unders, but this one presents excellent opportunity. Atletico with two clean goal advantage, without Falcao, but with their typical great defensive and collective work. They will leave little empty space for the hosts to exploit and will try to slow down the tempo of the game - something they are masters in. Atletico very hardly concedes goals, even away from home, even in Primera games when they try to win and attack. Now they don't need to win, so it will be even more difficult to score goals against them and I think Betis can grab at maximum one goal if they are lucky enough. 6 out of the last 7 away games of Atletico were under 2.5, the seventh was at Nou Camp against Barcelona..... Betis indeed are high goal-scorers, but mostly away from home, where they have the advantage to play their favorite style - counter-attacking. They are not getting this luxury tonight vs Atletico. I don't think that the home team has much faith in themselves about going through this leg after the deficit they face. Ironically, this is the type of game where an early goal can actually contribute to "unders", as far as it is in favor of Atletico. If the guests take the lead, I am quite confident that the game will die out and we won't see anything interesting till the final whistle. It's worth mentioning that this game resembles a lot the previous Copa Del Rey second leg of Atletico against Getafe, where the Madrid team have decided everything at home and the away game was a boring formality with little offensive action. After exposing all these arguments, you will maybe wonder why the price for unders is 1.90?! I have only one answer - "2:4" score at Benito Villamarin between these two teams in September. This is a typical betting fallacy - judging a game based very much on a previous encounter, even though the circumstances surrounding the two have been completely different (League game vs. Cup game, no Falcao, 0:2 deficit). Under 2.5 @ 1.90 (bet365)
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Re: €56.20 to ?????? Kiddo, why did you try to double-exploit the same game?! :( You already got your booty out of it, just had to take the money and run to another match, not over-push it.
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Re: FA Cup > 25th Jan - 27th Jan Red Devil, as I did not see the game with WH, could you tell me if it was as close as the score suggests?! Were there good chances for the visitors and how was Untied in the back, especially at set pieces?! I have the feeling that this one will be much easier than expected. Fulham are not only fragile at the back, but they are kind of slow and predictable. And I am not confident they will play with their best.
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Re: FA Cup > 25th Jan - 27th Jan
Trick with the cups these days is to bet against teams that are going to rest players and dont take it 100% seriousley. QPR' date=' Norwich, Boro and Man U will possibly all play weakened teams.[/quote'] Man United weakened?! But their weaker players will be Rooney, Chicarito, Anderson, Valencia, Young....:) Plus, I am not really sure Fulham will be full strength - they are already relegation candidate, they play relegation rival West Ham on Wednesday and immediately after that they host Man United again, meaning that if they lose both games they will probably end up below the line. -
Re: Segunda > 19th Jan - 20th Jan Ponferradina-Elche 1:1. Bet on Elche clean sheet lost. Still I think it was a good value at 2.62. Will continue to chase Elche clean sheets.
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Re: La Liga > 18th Jan - 20th Jan
Epic fail! :loon Well, I guess the team you bet on losing 0-5 by half-time feels a little better than conceding an equalizer in the last min.Valencia - Real Madrid Valencia @ 5.6 ...... -
Re: Australian Open 2013
I second this! Vika is very messy form right now. In the first round she nearly gave a set to a very poor low-class Niculescu. She was very bad against Hampton and the American totally deserved to win that one, and if it wasn't for the back injury in the end of the second set, I think she would have prevailed over world number one. I think this bet is a good value and in fact I would not shocked if see a huge surprise here.Back E.Vesnina/V.Azarenka - Over 17.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Pinnacle I can't see anything special today, so I will be keeping the stakes low once again for the two bets. Vesnina seems to be in good form and has managed to cover the line in all three meetings with Azarenka, so I expect her to do the same today. Azarenka has not been at her destructive best yet, unlike Williams or Sharapova, so I do not see her winning that without any problems. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/vesnina-vs-azarenka-betting-elena-vesnina-to-trouble-the-world-s-number-one -
Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 Any news when the two games will be replayed?! According to regulations, I think it should be 24 hours after initial kick-off but i don't know if this is possible here.
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Re: La Liga > 18th Jan - 20th Jan Valencia - Real Madrid Valencia @ 5.6 I am usually not a fan of such long shots against big teams, but I think now it definitely worth a try. It is a curious fact that H2H shows that Real has troubles with Valencia at home, while they beat them much easily at Mestalla. However, I don't think that H2H will matter much here, given the condition of Real Madrid. I have watched all the games of Los Blancos since early December and all I can say is that their game turns from poor into worse. Defensively they are very fragile, especially without Ramos and Pepe, and with Marcelo not on fire yet after the long injury. The 3 clean sheets in a row must not confuse anyone - Real were very fortunate in all three occasions, but they still played very poor at the back and left many goal-scoring chances for the opposing team. Real's midfield which is the greatest weapon of the royal club last season is extremely static and soft at the moment. They lose a tremendous amount of man-to-man challenges, play soft, don't move much off the ball and rarely surprise other teams with fast and dynamic combos. Whenever they get pressed up, they totally lose the plot and start a streak of kicking the ball aimlessly up-front. Luka Modrid is really terrible, I would even call him pathetic with negative contribution, but Jose keeps on playing him. I think that this guy is very disruptive for the rest of Real midfield and his presence in the team is the reason for the huge drop in form in Ozil and Khedira. Jose has turned into huge liability for his own team. Now the news are that he is in conflict with Ronaldo and there are strong expectations that he may bench him, which will be equal to a suicide, because without Cristiano, Real at the moment plays like a mid-table team. He did a number of very weird things lately - substituting Xabi for Varan at half-time against Celta (which totally turned the game in Celta favor which dominated the second half), benching Arbeola against Valencia, playing with Modric game after game despite his pathetic football, making subs at half-time nearly every game (a sign that he messed up the team). The Copa del Rey game's result is very deluding - in fact Valencia was the better team, had most possession and the better chances to score. Two times very wrong referee decisions went against them - both of them giving non-existent offsides when Soldado was going face to face with Cassilas. Valencia was pressing very heavy Real, thus giving the impressions that they are the home team, not the other way round. Real got lucky with both goals, as the course of the game before they happened did not at all point in this direction. Valencia improved a lot form and results under new coach and I expect them to put very strong battle and think they have very good chances to win.
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Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 Kozaboza, I did not find any information in the net in the last hour that the match is postponed, and it is still available on the major betting sites with the due time. Where do you get your info?!
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Re: Segunda > 19th Jan - 20th Jan
Real B - Villareal 5-0 FT :rollin Real indeed totally made up for last week's lack of goals.Real Madrid B - Villareal ......... Over 3.5 @ 2.62 -
Re: Segunda > 19th Jan - 20th Jan
Hmmmm.....I think you have to read more carefully my review. I never said Real B was playing Girona this week, I just used the game against Girona last week as an example.Yes but game is between Real Madird B - Villareal but not between Real Madrid B -Girona :D -
Re: Segunda > 19th Jan - 20th Jan Ponferradina - Elche I am always interested in the pricing of Elche's unders and clean sheets, as they have amazing defense - only 11 goals for 21 games! Now they play play-off contender Ponferradina and the price for Elche clean sheet stands at 2.62. I think this is pretty high for a team which got 12 clean sheets out of 21 games, as well as, 6 clean sheets out of 11 away games. If you look deeper into stats, we will see that Elche considerably tightened up in the last 2 months - 7 clean sheets out of 9 games, total of 3 goals received. Moreover, Elche does not seem to show variance in this defense patterns with regards to the quality of the opponent - they managed a clean sheet against Real Madrid B (the second highest scorers in the league) away from home, against Girona (2 place in the league) away, against Alcorcon (4th place), against Almeria (3rd place). They conceded only once away from home against the goal scoring machines of Barcelona B, who have scored a record of 47 goals in 21 games (when the average for the league is around 25). All these stats are telling me that the chance of a clean sheet is more than 50% while the odds suggest much smaller probability. Also, it is interesting to note that the price for Elche to receive less than 2 goals (1 goal or clean sheet) is just 1.30. A very huge drop from 2.62 to 1.30, and we are talking here about just one goal difference between the two. If Elche are so unlikely to concede twice or more, it is not justified to consider a clean sheet event for them as deserving such high price as 2.62. Last argument - Elche have 11 points advantage at the top and play against relatively good team away from home. It surely means that the draw will be wonderful results for the guests. I don't think that a draw will be a bad result for the home team as well - they are just 2 points away from play-off spots and play the best team in the league. Hence, I don't see much action in this game. A bet on a draw can also be a reasonable option (price of 3.10) but Elche is a very smart team which has abnormally big amount of 1:0 victories. They make very good uses of set pieces and need just a small opportunity to get their goal. Hence, I stick with the clean sheet. Elche Clean Sheet @ 2.62
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Re: La Liga > 18th Jan - 20th Jan Mustafa, but you aren't you missing Celta in your analysis?! They play really tight away from home. In the last four away games they conceded a total of only 3 goals - not a single game conceding more than one. They are not prolific goal scores, as well - they scored only once in the last 4 games. Smells more like unders to me.
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Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 Drac Blau, that is a very good and insightful analysis! I would just add a few points to it. I watched all the games you have been using as a reference point - Moreirense, Benfica and Nacional. I am yet not sure as to how much these games will tell us with regards to Saturday's match. First, Porto hugely underestimated Moreirense. They were at last place in the table, this game was just a week before winter break, and I don't think that Porto gave more than 25% of their potential, especially in the first half when they seemed like during training session. Second, the game with Nacional was just before the derby with Benfica and Porto was saving energy in big amounts once again. Despite that, it could have easily finished at least 3:0 for Porto. I clearly remember Jackson missing an open shot just in front of the goal line in the second half, James missing face to face with the keeper (that is when he got injured) and several other good chances. Third, in the big derby, I think that the flood of early goals, most of which were after terrible defensive mistakes (esp. second goal for Porto), scared a little both teams which felt very vulnerable at the back. That's why they slowed down and tried to keep it as safe as possible afterwards. My major concern with "under 3", although it really looks like a viable bet and a one that at least should not lose in the worst case, is that Porto tends to raise their game against higher rank teams, as PF are at the moment. Also, statistically, this bet would lose three times at Porto's home games this season, would have been void once, and would have been really threatened (despite winning in the end) in several occasions, like for instance the match with Sporting, when if Porto had better day, they could have crushed with 5-6 goals. I was thinking if "Porto to win to nil" isn't also an option worth considering?! At home they conceded only once, they have good defense and play possession and pressure football which leave few attacking opportunities for the opponent. And PF are not that scary going forward and have mediocre scoring record. The advantage of your proposed bet is that it provides insurance against a "0:0" draw, and makes "2:1" home win void bet. It is also a little better priced - 1.90 compared to 1.80 for Porto to win to nil. The advantage of the second proposed bet is that it would turn a 4:0 home win (achieved twice this season) and a 5:0 home win (achieved once) into winning bets unlike the first one. It also would make a 3:0 home win a winner, while it would be void in the first case. Porto Win to Nil @ 1.8 (b365)
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Re: ACN 2013 - Outrights McNasara, isn't our recognized specialist in African football, i.e. you, going to share some of his insights regarding this tournament?! :cheers I remember you had amazing hit rate during the qualifiers for this tournament, so I believe you have some surprises for us. Although it seems very-very tough and tight tournament in first sight. Yet, I believe that there will be some boxing bags in CAN and my main suspects are Niger and Ethiopia. Expecting a big surprise from teams like Cabo Verde and DR Congo. Anyway, I will share more insights within the enxt two days.
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Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 Belgian Punter, what do you think about away victory for Club Brugge against local rivals Cercle Brugge?! Isn't 1,72 too high for a flying Club Brugge team which just bought the best forward of Cercle - Gudjonsen?! Besides, I am not sure how much of a home advantage Cercle will have, as Club Brugge are definitely the more supported team in town.
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Re: Segunda > 19th Jan - 20th Jan Real Madrid B - Villareal Real B - the second team of Real Madrid, is one of the weirdest teams in Spain. They alternate streaks with extremely high scoring games (5-8 goals per game) with goal-less streaks (under 1.5). In the beginning of the season their games involved so many goals that they crushed the overs price to ridiculous levels below 1.40. Later on, they had several "0:0"s and "1:0"s, which brought the price of overs back upwards and made it an attractive option. As I watched and bet on some of their games, I think I have some answers for myself for this extreme volatility of Real B. In general, they are a very attacking team and never really care about defending. They always try to score as many as possible while at same time being vulnerable at the back. However, they are practically a kids team (almost everyone is under 20 years of age) and are therefore very inexperienced. That's why they often make plenty of ridiculous misses in front of open goal, which would be more typical of a neighborhood team rather than a professional one. Another decisive factor with regards to unders/overs is the attitude of the opposing team. Some teams approach the games with Real B with extreme cautiousness, and if these teams are also solid in the back, then they can effectively cut out the good attacking game of Madrid. This is what happened last Sunday - Girona came to Madrid to play for the draw, stood back in defense and disrupted Real's play. However, I have a reason to believe that this game will be very different than last week's. Girona are second-placed (direct promotion) and a draw in Madrid kept them in this position, hence it was a very favorable result. Villareal, on the other hand, is just outside the playoff spots, hence I don't think that the draw is very good option for them. I think they will try to exploit the defensive weakness of Real B and aim for the victory. Real B, on the other hand, failed to score last week, after forward Alvaro Morata missed 4 or 5 clear-cut chances, including one in front of empty goal. I don't expect that Real B will be so pathetic in front of goal for a second game in a row and Alvaro Morata, who had some games for the first team, must definitely improve his performance if he has any ambition to be called again by Mourinho. I think that we are about to see early goals here and consequently very open and attacking game. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.72, but I think that the better option here is over 3.5 which is 2.62. As I said, Real B games are extremely volatile - ranging from goal-less draws to goal fiestas. And in fact, they rarely fall in the typical diapason of 2-3 goals - usually they either exceed it or fall below it. Hence, I think it is much better value to try the over 3.5. Over 3.5 @ 2.62
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Re: Serie A > 19th Jan - 20th Jan Fiorentina - Napoli We have a standout price on overs here - 1.95! Let's analyze it! At first sight, it looks very illogical - both teams play attacking football, both are involved in high scoring games, and both have problems in defense, combined with mighty attacks. I am trying to get into bookies' mind and find out what is their rationale for this price. First, I see a few "0:0" in the recent H2H between the two teams. Not sure how relevant they are, thougn - Fiorentina under Montella is a completely different team now with completely different, very attacking philosophy. Second, Fiorentina and Napoli are exactly side by side in the table - Napoli are currently at the 3rd spot (Champions League spot), while Fiorentina are at the borderline 4th spot (Europa League), being separated by two points. This should suggest that neither team will want to risk losing here and might be happy with maintaining the stalemate. This sounds like a more clever argument for pricing overs high. However, I have reasons to believe that overs are more likely than unders here, contrary to what bookies believe. I already mentioned about the attacking styles and capabilities of both teams. While Napoli surely will eagerly take the draw here, I am not sure that a draw will suit Fiorentina. They lost two games in a row - both of them with handicap. The pressure on Montella and his boys is rising and in such circumstance a draw here will mean another blow to their self-confidence and another win-less game. I think they will go for it from the start and Napoli are a team with a lot of defense troubles this year. I think the main issue here is when the first goal will fall. Because a goal before the 60th minute will surely open-up entirely the game, especially if it is in the visitors' goal, and can quickly result in an over. Taking into consideration all the facts mentioned above, I think that a first half goal is more likely to take place than not. And it will immensely increase the chance for over 2.5 in this game. Over 2.5 @ 1.95
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Re: Bundesliga > Saturday January 19th
If you look at Bayern's stats at home this season, you will see that they covered -1.5 handicap 6 out of 9 times at home this season. Whenever they failed to do it, it was against top teams like Dortmund, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach. Last year, Bayern covered this handicap in 12 out of 17 games. The games when they failed to cover were either against top teams - Gladbach, Dortmund and Hannover, or games which preceded CL direct elimination games. So, to sum it up, in fact for the last 26 home games, Bayern tend to do really well against teams outside top 5, especially whenever there is no CL football involved. Under these circumstances, they blew only one handicap - against Gladbach in December last round (but having in mind that Gladbach is way stronger than Greuther, and their place in the table did not represent their actual value). So, analyzing all this, I am not so sure that there is no "value" in backing AH for Bayern. They tend to do very profitable on this handicap under similar circumstances in the last two years.Might work, but I don't see any value there. Traditionally the topteams have some problems getting their motor started after the winter break, Bayern's looking strong these days, but Schalke was just tactically terrible last week leaving Bayern way too much room, for Fürth it will be important to get at least a good feeling out of that match for the rest of the season so I think they will fight like hell... You can ignore the derby-factor, Fürth hasn't been in the Bundesliga for ages, there is no such a thing as a special rivalry...
Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13
in Portugal Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13