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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February

    My favorite bets for tonight: Twente-Steaua Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 (bet365) Man United - Ajax Ajax+1.5 at 1.775 (bet365)
    One success and one failure. Ajax game totally went the way I expected, I even feel sorry I didn't trust Ajax more. United proved once again they are really lazy when they lack real incentive to win. On the other hand, Twente-Steaua - a big time disappointment! F*cking tournament defensive mentality!!! Teams who enjoys scoring that much were so scared to attack tonight, it was hurting watching that game. And particularly Steaua - they needed to score two goals and they never took a minimum risk, even in the last 15 minutes. Huge lesson from League Europe: tournament mentality is very strong and teams are so cautious and risk-averse, that it is always a winning strategy to be looking for unders. I made a big profit betting live this evening, and all my bets were for either no more goals to be scored, or just one more (the bets were around half-time). Live Betting seems to be the better options for tournament battles!!!
  2. Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February

    When I read words like 'easy' and 'decided' I am tempted to think there's some value in Ajax. From what I heard' date=' Ajax were the better team in the first half last week. At 2-0 it's not decided (remember Basle drew 3-3 at Old Trafford and came very close to winning - and Ajax probably have a better squad than Basle). If you're looking at handicaps, I'd say the value is more with the Ajax handicap - Ajax +1.5 @ 1.8 with 188bet[/quote'] It is decided, believe me. And Ajax are definitely weaker than Basel at the moment. I follow the Eredivisie - they are mediocre. But I don't see United going for a striking victory.
  3. Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February My favorite bets for tonight: Twente-Steaua Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 (bet365) Very attacking styles of both teams, particularly Twente at home. The first game was more tactical, but a "0:1" makes the return game much more open, as Steaua has no other chances but to open-up, and Twente enjoys attacking football at home. Have been watching quite a few Twente Eredivisie games, and I've seen they create a lot of chances, but meanwhile, they commit quite too many defensive mistakes. Steaua is also a solid team with a lot of experience in Europe. They would definitely score a goal in Entshede. I was thinking about trying "Twente&over2.5" at 2.2, as I am positive the home side won't lose this game, but I think that the over at 1.8 is a good price and a more secure bet. Man United - Ajax Ajax+1.5 at 1.775 (bet365) This game has been already decided in Amsterdam, and United never tend to put much effort in decided games even in CL. There many indications that SAF will not use his best squad. Rooney will be probablt missing, and he is the key link between United midfielders and attack, and without him their game is much more toothless. Besides, United have a very tough game in Norwich this weekend. I expect a very low tempo in this game, and probably a draw or a minimal victory for United. The only possible reason for concern would be if Berbatov starts this game as he tends to be prolific in such easy and decided games.

  4. Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February

    Besiktas is better when visiting than when playing at home. Both Besiktas and Braga are Portuguese teams, and Braga is used to that style of play. Actually, the whole concept of Braga's game style is revolving around countering the top Portuguese teams. I believe the visitors can grab at least a point.
    You are very right about Braga. And I am pretty sure they wouldn't lose in Istanbul under different circumstances. But this 0:2 deficit (after a ridiculous red card) changes everything. Now Braga cannot play their favorite style - defense and counter-attack. They must press and attack, and they aren't good enough at it. I would rather skip this game for this reason.
  5. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

    Basel AH +1 at 1.9
    After yesterday's failure with Madrid, today a very solid bet, contrary to the popular opinion in the forum about easy handicap victory for Bayern. Don't want to be annoying and to tease people, who lost money on this, but I believe a good lesson from this game is: watching carefully recent games of the teams you bet on is much more relevant for a successful bet than relying on some stats for games which took places several months ago (Bayern's games in CL in the autumn). Teams' sporting shape might change dramatically over a couple of weeks, and the longer the time span of the stats, the less relevant it is.
  6. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 21 February

    So, I personally choose: Real Madrid AH -1 at 1.7 (Bet365)
    Bet Lost :-( Really, I mean really unlucky one. CSKA could barely organize a meaningful attack! I think their goal in the extra time was just the second shot on goal for the whole game and it was the first and only real chance. However, Real Madrid didn't play that well offensively. Yes, they had chances to score a second goal after half-time (Ronaldo missed two 100% chances) and kill-off the game, but generally they were not very consistent and aggressive in their attack. Lessons from this bet and game: - Never equate international tournament to domestic league games. Spanish teams open-up much more than CSKA did - actually, the Russians played type of catenaccio the whole game. Also, Real Madrid had completely different mentality in this tournament game - minding their defense and searching for a narrow victory. - Consider the artificial pitch factor. I think it did affect the technical skills of Madrid players. - Be careful with the starting line-up when picking an aggressive bet (like negative Asian handicap). Real picked the young Callejon who was unprepared and too fresh for such a tournament battle in the severe Moscow conditions, as well as the very soft Gonzalo Higuain, who might be a great goal-scorer at Bernabeu against weaker Primera sides, but is very harmless in close and tough games. Had Benzema and Di Maria been available for Madrid, I think they would have easily grabbed a comfortable victory.
  7. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 21 February Still, CSKA has been very unconvincing at home this season both in the domestic league and in Europe. CSKA definitely prefers playing away from home where they can show their best sides: quick pass-and-move counter-attack football. They are technical team and are offence-oriented, but I personally don't believe that Real Madrid can be stopped by a weaker side which is not very solid defensively. I remember watching one of the few losses this season of Real - against Levante - and I must say this team was very solid defensively at this stage of the season. Whereas, CSKA never had this defensive mentality. Moreover, I hear that CSKA's goalkeeper is not very convincing. Well, this is kind of typical for many Eastern European sides. Only last week I saw very bad performances by Zenith (against Benfica) and Steaua (against Twente) goalkeepers. I don't think that you stand any chance against Real Madrid (or Barcelona) without your goal-keeper solid. In Primera Real Madrid usually manages to create nearly 10 chances on goal every game, and whenever the goalie against them isn't having a great day, the results become very scary for the opposing sides. Last but not least, as I am Eastern European and have substantial outlook on Eastern European teams style of play and mentality, I have to say that they tend to be fragile psychologically when they play against very big teams. So often I've seen an Eastern European side miss to grab a draw or a victory against a very big team just because of weak mentality. So, I personally choose: Real Madrid AH -1 at 1.7 (Bet365)

  8. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Again, a good advice for successful bets is to rely more on watching the games of the teams you are betting on, rather than relying on raw stats. I know Bayern is looking like an absolute winner here, but I watched lately there last three away games against Gladbach, Hamburger and Freiburg, and I must say Bayern's performance was just terrible, definitely not the away form you will be relying on to put your bets. On Saturday against Freiburg they were totally outplayed by the last team in the Bundesliga. Bayern had enormous difficulties organizing their attacks when they faced fierce pressure by Freiburg's midfield. A lot of passing mistakes by Bayern's midfield, lack of consistent control over the rhythm of the game, and simply relying on outbursts by Ribery and Roben. To add to that, Bayern also committed many defensive mistakes, which luckily for them went unpunished by Freiburg. And guess what - Basel is exactly that type of team who would employ a lot of defensive pressure against the opposing midfield at home. They play simple, efficient and well-organized football, and are particularly effective at home in front of their fanatic crowd. Asian handicap of +1 at 1.9 is just the right bet for me. Basel AH +1 at 1.9

  9. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 21 February Guys, I would like to warn you against jumping quickly on the Napoli bandwagon. Yes, Chelsea has been playing really crappy, impotent football lately. Yes, they are terrible in creating chances and scoring goals. But I think you are dismissing a very critical factor here. In most of the games when Chelsea faces mid-table or low-ranking opponent, they play against very defensively-oriented sides in "must-win" games. Usually the teams they play against are quite happy with closing down empty spaces in their half, disrupting Chelsea's creative play, and waiting for chances to hit on the counter-attack. However, I expect this game to be in a very different spirit. This time Chelsea will be closing down in their half of the pitch, disrupting Napoli's play and looking for empty spaces on the counter-attack. Chelsea is not in a "must-win" situation, not at least in this game at Naples. The initiative to break-through will be on Napoli's side and I think that Chelsea will be much more comfortable in this role compared to the one against mid-table Premiership teams. So, my advice is probably to skip this game or to try a small stake on Chelsea's handicap. But having Real Madrid in absolutely amazing form playing on the same day in Moscow against a team without official game of football since December, I would personally put all my stakes there.

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