Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: WC - Asia Qualifiers > March 26 Australia - Oman Australia win to nil @ 1.90 (bet365) (medium to high stakes) I fancy this one a lot. First, the victory of the Aussies is of little doubt. They are detrimental at home in principal, and in these qualifiers only once had a draw - against the supposedly best team in Asia - Japan. This is actually the second phase of qualifiers, and these two teams already met twice in the first phase, and once in the second. Australia one at home 3:0, lost the 1:0 away fixture in the first phase (but it was after three consecutive victories and a secured qualification, hence the Aussies didn't care much), and drew 0:0 in the last game between the two sides, played in Oman. I watched highlights of all three games, and Australia was all over the place in all of them - at least from the highlights I counted like one or two goal chances for Oman for whole three games (and they managed to convert one) and a dozen of chances for Australia. Especially in the last game between the two in Oman, Australians totally missed them and all the chances were for the visitors. Oman, on the other hand, are the typical home team, who relies to get points only at their own stadium, and defend in huge number on the road. However, their defense doesn't seem so convincing, as I saw a lot of huge defensive mistakes in the highlights. Away from home, Oman played five games in these qualifiers, and lost three of them by 3-0, including a defeat against the weak team of Thailand. They managed a lucky 0-0 draw at Saudi Arabia, and another draw against Iraq at a game played at neutral venue. This was the only game away from Oman when they managed to score a goal. The teams are currently fighting for the second spot, as Japan is dominating heavily the group. There is only one point separating them, so the motivation of Australia (definitely the better team) will be near the maximum. I expect little attacking from the visitors, and a 2-0 or 3-0 easy home win.
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 23 - 24 March McNasara, no need to apologize - you still had some really nice shots. Probably only you should have given more credit to the very strong and reliable home favorites. Because any very strong home team won with ease, which turns out to be a tradition in Africa.
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 23 - 24 March We shouldn't forget that Botswana made amazing run in the qualifiers for CAN 2012. They headed their group without a loss, and they were playing in the same group with Tunisia - one of the big continental forces. It was very surprising as almost all of the team consists of local players. Surely, Ehtiopia is better at the moment and a home advantage is a big factor here, but I would personally price Ethiopia at 1.8-1.9.
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Re: Sunderland v Manchester United > Sat 30th March It is good to have in mind that the game is played on Saturday afternoon and on Monday United plays the FA replay with Chelsea. So, exactly two days of rest for the team. Given that most of the players of United are internationals, it would mean that the majority of them will have to play 4 games for ten days. Since United are already secure at the top, I am confident we are going to see mainly reserve players against Sunderland, as SAF will be looking for a double. P.S. Chelsea's situation is even worse - they have Europa League against Rubin on Thursday.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March By the way, I cannot wait until the odds for "Poland to beat San Marino to nil" are released. I think that pg-yid might be right about the algorithms used by bookies to determine such odds. In such case, Poland should be like Level 3 team, plus one that concedes often. So, we may hope to get initially something like 1.25 which would be extremely tasty. Although, to be honest, this time I might attack handicaps against San Marino. Poland are extremely disappointed after tonight and are like wounded animal. I think that the likes of Lewandowski and Kuba will not be sparing goals against San Marino and will try to at least partially redeem themselves in front of the crowd.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Also, any handicaps when against Andorra at their own turf is not a good idea. The terrain is very bad - Turkish players would slip and fall down all the time, many times the ball would suddenly change its trajectory. Andorrans play deep pressure and are athletic and very rude at the times. But they have much better fitness than other minnows as they continued with their pressure throughout the whole game. For me, Andorra is at the level of League 2 team - nothing special, but might strike a surprise sometimes.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
Are you watching Turkey by the way? Christ they are beyond terrible' date=' making Andorra look a good side..[/quote'] We should remember not to take such bet on Andorra again. They had like 10-15 long throw-ins "Stoke City style" deep into the Turkish penalty area. They had enough corners and set pieces. They had one clear chance face to face with the keeper. These are not the poor San Marino who don't cross the mid-line. -
Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
How did you come up with these numbers?! Without checking, I clearly remember only in the autumn at least six instances of huge public favorites covering the -2.5 handicap: Hungary at Andorra, Bosnia at Lichtenstein, Israel vs Luxemburg at home (the away game was even bigger but then Israel wasn't considered as a huge public favorite), Spain in Belarus, Montenegro in San Marino, England in Moldovia......To me, this stat you quoted is simply not true and made up to suit a bet you want to make. Anyway, in my opinion each game should be considered individually when deciding to place a bet. I personally don't believe in such groupings of historical results of different teams (even if we speak about recent history). Most of these games have absolutely nothing to do in common, and it is not true anyway that only 3 huge public favorites covered such handicap.Faroe Islands +2.5 @ 1.95 Estonia +2.75 @ 1.95 Andorra +2.5 @ 1.93 Kazakhstan +2.5 @ 2.20 Finland no line yet but will be on them if it's +2.5 or better Records in the last Euro and this WC qualifying of huge public favorites of -2.5: 3-13 ...of -3 or better: 1-4 -
Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 23 - 24 March Wonderful job, mate! I will follow you on some of this picks, and particularly like those on Burkina Faso and the overs in Nigeria and Cameroon. I will try to contribute with something myself within the next hours.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Terrible weather in Sofia today - harsh arctic wind, minus degrees and light snow. Game played at closed door. Unders become more and more attractive. Bulgaria - Malta Under 2.5 @ 2.20
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Re: Aston Villa v Liverpool > Sun 31st March Definitely over 2.5 is the way to go here. Two teams with joke defenses and very good attacks. Two teams which desperately need to win and which don't have much fear from the opposition and will not be afraid to open up (Liverpool won't have much fear from Villa as they are at the bottom while Villa won't have much fear from Liverpool as so many teams in the bottom half managed to defeat Liverpool already). Huge majority of Liverpool games in the last months go over 2.5, with the only exception of few instances when opposition would park the bus (like WBA). Whenever Liverpool are offered open play by the opposition, the game goes surely over. Villa's nearly all games lately have been over, with the exception of the game with City, which is after all a team that knows how to defend a lead (unlike Liverpool) and a team which is feared from most other teams which frequently results in tighter approach. I wouldn't give more than 1.40 for overs and the price at the moment is way bigger. Over 2.5 @ 1.77 (Marathon)
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
But does it cover a San Marino own goal?! 1.44 looks suspiciously good, but I think that an own goal by San Marino will mean the bet is a loser.Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March San Marino vs England No San Marion goalscorer 1.44 (4/9) paddypower So far this campaign San Marino have played four games, two home and two away. They have conceded a total of 16 goals, eight at home and eight away. They have scored zero goals. They have not scored in a competitive game since October 2008 vs Slovakia. San Marino did score (twice) in a friendly against Malta in August 2012 but they have gone 22 competitive games since they scored. I cannot see this changing against England and in my opinion the 1.44 is real value when it also covers an England own goal, I think. One of the BEST bets of this round of qualifiers IMO. Also pg_yid I really like the look of unders in the Liechtenstein v Latvia game. Great find. -
Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Of course $1.01 shots would not make sense unless you gonna play really heavy. My whole point was that it is a totally wrong assumption that low odds by default would mean no value and only the remote long shots can have value. For this game I expect that at least in the first hours after this market is offered, "England to win to nil" will be around 1.20. Which would be a tremendous value even mathematically given that San Marino needs years and decades to get a goal in official fixtures.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
You continue to be disrespectful, but you only make yourself look foolish when you easily define others as inexperienced and meanwhile write things which reveal your fundamental lack of experience and knowledge of the matter. First, bookies do give bonuses to winning players. If they believe that those winning players will start losing in the future. Second, if you continue to play this "low odds - very high stake" model and a trader limits you, then on the next day this trader will be looking for a new job. Because he has made the ultimate mistake in the business by turning the player into an eventual net winner with regards to his company by kicking him out before he started losing money and turning back into a net loser. Sorry, but you really seem to have read a few things here and there which make you believe your petty talks and arguments are well founded, but you have very little practical experience with what you are talking about and are making wrong conclusions based on fragments of information that you picked while reading here and there.Let me correct myself. You might not get a limit the first time but if you keep playing this pattern, will you get a personal limit. Don't fool yourself and other inexperienced users at this site. Secondly, bookmakers only give bonuses to losing players to keep them on the site. If you are a continuing winning player will they not. No need to do so. -
Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
This is getting annoying and I was going to disregard it, but I cannot skip this part - what you wrote up there is a complete and utter bollocks! No bookie on earth will limit you because you placed a very large amount on a very low coefficient. They would even welcome you and give you a bonus for that, because they know that if you start doing this regularly, sooner or later your cautiousness will abandon you and you will increase the risk and get into the trap. I might not have your "slightly deeper understanding of betting", but for me value is simply any price above the actual probability. And since the actual probability of San Marino not losing to England is practically zero, the price of 1.02 is quite a value.I just checked for the fun of it at the general limit at Bet365 (1,01) is € 28,333. Let's say you have that amount on your account or anything even near (above € 8,000) - IF you choose to place the bet will Bet365 limit you so hard, you'll be lucky to place a € 100 bet on any slightly major event in the future........If you choose to bet hard there will be consequences in from of low personal limits or limitations of event choices. -
Re: WC - CONCACAF Qualification > 22 - 23 March I see a big and undeserved underestimation of Costa Rica. 1. They've got excellent H2H against USA. The last time they lost against this opponent was in 2005. Meanwhile, in four games they got 3 wins against USA and a draw. The last two games in the States finished with a draw and a Costa Rica victory (a friendly in 2011). 2. USA has got a bad campaign for their standards under Klinsman so far. They are very poor in their visits, and at home, despite having only wins, they are not convincing - a very difficult 1-0 win over Jamaica, and two 3-1 wins over Guatemala and minnows Antigua. Even their passing through the first stage was under big question as it was decided only in the last group game, and the game before that they nearly escaped a humiliating draw in Antigua. 3. Costa Rica has had an excellent campaign so far, losing only against Mexico (twice). They lost a narrow 1-0 defeat in Mexico City against a supposedly classier opponent than the States. 4. US Major Soccer League, where the majority of US players play, have just started after a three month break. Meanwhile, Costa Ricans play either at home (Costa Rican league has been under way since January) or in Europe. I think that Costa Rica might still something from this game and they would hardly lose by more than one goal. Costa Rica +1 AH @ 1.95 (bet365)
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
Are you trying to tell me 1. You have € 8' date='000 you want to punt on England? 2. Risk € 8,000 and potentially lose them on a 1,01 match because it was the 1 out of 150 San Marino actually won. Don't be silly Fedar.[/quote'] Does it really matter if I have € 8,000 or less or more?! Here we are discussing whether it is value or not. I am pretty sure that bet365 betting limit will be around € 100,000, which would make a decent profit for whoever has it. Dunno who's silly here, but I don't understand where you see the risk here?! I don't see any risk - yes, San Marino managed not to lose one game in the last thirteen years and it was against Latvia. Against even remotely decent teams they have never in the history of football earned a point. This is practically a risk-free bet - it is the same like my pub team playing England. In fact, the chance that the bank you keep your money in goes bankrupt before you can withdraw is significantly bigger than this of San Marino not losing this game. -
Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Kazakstan - Germany Some facts before the game: 1. Game will be played at a surprising local time - 00:00, i.e. at midnight (probably because of the money offered by German TV). Should be a strong disadvantage for local team. Little audience expected because of the starting time and because the home games of Kazakhstan (including the one with Germany back in 2010) attract little interest. Unlike places like Azerbaijan, the atmosphere at Astana Stadium is usually very calm and there is little home factor involved. The pitch is relatively big and in excellent condition. 2. The two teams met in the WC 2012 campaign - two easy German victories - 4:0 (3:0) at home and 3:0 (0:0) away. 3. Kazakhstan have scored just one goal in their last six home games. 4. After the dramatic 4:4 comeback of Sweden, Lowe was heavily criticized for the state of his defense. 5. Weather in Astana is expected to be +3 - +4 degrees, probability for rain. 6. The two most important missings in the German team will be Klose and Hummels. Expected line-up: Neuer Boatens - Mertesacker - Howedes - Lahm Schweinsteiger - Khedira Ozil Muller - Gomez - Reus (Podolski).
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Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
So, if you find 80 euros on the street, you will pass by and not take them?! Because this is like finding 80 euros on the street.At best are you able to push € 8,000 via an asian bookmaker. You will then make a stunning profit of € 80. The odds is anything but value mate :) I think you need to look at corner, possission, to score or other markets to find anything decent. -
Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March
About Croatia v Serbia game' date=' the only one worth a bet is red card, IMO. The tension and pressure on both teams will be amazing, and the referee will be the one who was in the match between Manchester Untd and Real. Some Turkish one, I can't remember the name, but I know that he very easily show cards (especially in big games).[/quote'] Mate, looking forward to your advice on African qualifiers this weekend. Quite a lot of very interesting encounters. -
Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Bulgaria game played at closed doors (racism sanction). Bulgaria started well the campaign, but does not have good goal scorer (Berba retired) and have a lot of difficulties finding the net. Malta plays tight and doesn't lose big (even again Italy they lost only 2-0 with the second goal in extra time). Bulgaria, of course, should win this one, but I expect not more than 2-0, and would not be surprised by a narrow and difficult 1-0 win. Not worth at this price for sure, but unders should be considered for this game. Even Under 3.5 could get a good price.
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 My three tips these round: 1) Venlo - Heracles Over 3 goals Asian Goal-line @ 1.950 (bet 365) Who follows Eredivisie, knows that Heracles are an ideal team for overs - very open attacking football coupled with bad defense. After the winter break, they played 9 games and achieved 6 times over 3.5 (5 of which was over 4.5 goals). Last week they had an exceptionally low scoring game - 1-0 with NEC, so the common logic points that now Heracles will go back to the typical mood of scoring and conceding goals. Venlo at home is an ideal opponent for over-ish football. It is an interesting fact that Venlo home games produce a lot of goals, while their visits tend to be very tight and goal-less. For instance, the first seven home games of Venlo in season 2012-13 produced each more than 3.5 goals - a really unique achievement. Meanwhile, the first seven away games of Venlo did not produce a single over 3.5, only two "over 2.5" and whole 5 "under 2.5". Venlo kept this trend throughout the season. They just open up too much when they play at home which results in many goals, mainly in their own goal. At the moment, Venlo are at the 17th place (relegation play-off), 5 points away from Zwolle, which is the first team above the line. They must try to win at home against a midtable team like Heracles, so they will surely play open football once again. 2. PSV - RKC Waalwijk PSV AH -2,-2.5 @ 2.075 (bet 365) PSV lost again last week and surrendered the first place. Hence, it is a perfect time to search for a big PSV home win against one of the poorest teams in Eredivisie. PSV covered this handicap in 8 home games (out of 13). It is interesting that they did not manage to cover it in the last two home games (2:1 Utrecht and 2:0 Venlo). Now they are hurt badly after the defeat in Heerenveen and are expected to bite back. They will still miss suspended attacker Lens, and are expected to start up-front with Matavz, Locadia and Mertens. Waalwijk is a poor team in a poor form. Their only chance to escape a massacre in Eindhoven is lowered motivation in the home team. Something very unlikely after the defeat last week in Heerenveen. 3. AZ - Ajax AZ or Draw @ 2.00 (bet 365) These two teams are the emblematic examples of underachiever and overachiever this season in Eredivisie. Ajax is the over-achiever, because they are weaker than the last two seasons and they hardly played any convincing football so far, but they somehow manage to get the points and have been leading the table for most of the season. AZ Alkmaar is the big under-achiever in Holland. It is incredible how such team which has potential for top 3, is actually threatened by relegation at the moment. They have a very good coach, they have one of the best young talents in Europe - Maher, they have a very prolific goal-scorer in the face of Altidore, a good and pacy winger like Beerens, they create numerous goal-scoring chances, but they somehow fail to convert and happen to be on the losing side in most their games. I think that sooner or later the luck factor will even up, and the last third of the season will feature the rise of AZ and the regress of Ajax. It is very likely to start on Sunday in the direct match. AZ are against the wall and must start winning games. I think their motivation will be optimal and they won't lose against Ajax.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Another round coming in the Bulgarian A PFG. Here are my two suggestions, hoping to improve the strike rate: 1. Loko Plovdiv - CSKA. Under 2.5 @ 1.95 (Bet Victor) Clearly this game should be more prone to unders. CSKA is in very bad form and really struggling to create chances. The team fired their Serbian coach, but is legacy is still there - very bad physical condition of the team, evident in the last 30 minutes in the Cup game. Their best scorer Platini is still doubtful, but even if he plays, his condition is not optimal at the moment. CSKA just doesn't play good football at the moments and will need at least a few more games before showing some significant improvement. Loko Plovdiv are no world-beaters themselves. They are a modest team who will most probably be defensive minded against CSKA. The weather will be very bad on Saturday and I expect bad condition of the pitch. All in all, it should be another ugly Bulgarian football game with a lot of challenges and fights, and little goal scoring chances. I will be very surprised if this game produces many goals. 2. Minyor - Litex Litex -1 Handicap @ 2.40 (paddy) Insane price given by paddy for this one. As I mentioned, Minyor are practically a bankrupt team which was left by nearly all capable players who started the season. They have got no salaries and are 100% going down to the second division. They got humiliated during the week at their own stadium by Slavia - 2:5, even though Slavia played half an hour with one man less on the pitch and a central forward as a goal-keeper. Litex are definitely higher class than Slavia and they are the best playing team in the country at the moment. They had a very unlucky week as they drew with Loko Plovdiv at home and lost in Sofia to Levski for the Cup, although they were much better in both games. Now I am sure they will release their anger on poor miserable Minyor. I have absolutely no idea how paddy can come up with such price on the away handicap. The only explanation I can come up with is the expected bad weather. But Minyor is so much weaker than Litex at the moment, and besides, if Minyor were to make use of the bad weather and probably pitch against Litex, this means they would have to play a dirty football with lots of tough challenges and time wasting. I don't think that a team which has already given up the fight and basically plays only for glory will resort to such measures. I am confident Litex will cruise easily and I expect 0-3 or 0-4 for the visitors.
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Re: FC Bayern München v Arsenal > Wed 13th March As a matter of fact, it might be a coincidence, but whenever it happens that I watch Bayern when they are without Schweinsteiger, they play terrible football. I remember a game last year in Freiburg, when he didn't play because of a minor injury, and Bayern could barely string a few passes together. Of course, should have considered that before the game, but I will have it in mind for the future.
WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March
in World Cup 2022 Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Algeria - Benin - Three teams competing for one spot, although in fact, Mali and Algeria are definitely classier than Benin, so I believe in the end it will be just these two fighting with each other for that one place. - If Algeria fails to win, this will leave them at third spot, 3 points behind Mali. - Benin without their two best players, who got injured: Sessegnon and Pote. - The best Algerian striker Rafik Djebbour (Olympiakos) is back with the national team after he missed the CAN. - Algeria's coach is Valid Halilhojic - a very experienced and high quality Bosnian coach. - Goal difference might be decisive here in this group. Indeed, Algeria has advantage after beating Rwanda 4:0 in the first round, but Mali is also welcoming Rwanda in June in a game when they can easily improve their goal difference. - Algerian fans are probably the best in Africa and the atmosphere will be scary for the guests. Here is a short video link to their first home game, where you can observe the atmosphere at the stadium: http://www.matchhighlight.com/latest-goals/fifa/algeria-4-0-rwanda-wc-2014-qualif/ Algeria -1.5 @ 2.10