[Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

.....Fortunately for them Cardozo is elegible to play again ....

Lol, he grabbed the referee by the neck and nearly beat him, and he got one match ban. In other leagues it would have been 7-8 games rest for Cardozo. But probably also in Portugal they would have been much harsher if it was for a player from any other team besides Benfica and Porto.

[AC Milan V Barcelona > Wednesday 20th February]

Re: AC Milan V Barcelona > Wednesday 20th February

What about under 2' date='5? Odds are 2,20...?![/quote'] Most of the games in the 1/8 finals so far have been over 2.5, a striking percentage of Barca games are over 2.5 - I think more than 95% of their games this season. Of course, this does not mean that over 2.5 is guaranteed, but does 2.20 look like such a big odd to you, given these facts?! If it was above 3.0, I would have given it a thought, but it is actually much closer to evens, and this is very bad value in my opinion.

[AC Milan V Barcelona > Wednesday 20th February]

Re: AC Milan V Barcelona > Wednesday 20th February

but people are forgetting that this is the champions league. If celtic can beat barca so can a weak milan team. We have to ask ourselves if 1.53 really is value in an away knockout game (realistically milan is out if they dont at least draw). Barca do concede against even weaker teams as well. But I do admit, does seem like a walk in the park for barca as always.

I seriously don't see any connection between tonight's game and Celtic-Barca. Barca also lost to Sociedad and drew at home against Malaga with a man more on the pitch, but does it really matter and have any significance to tonight's game?! Nevertheless, I am hesitant about the value part of your comment. Indeed, 1.5 away from home is very short.

[Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

It was an unfortunate game, as Rio Ave were only disrupting and not creating anything, and Braga were trying, but did not have any idea how to break down their hosts. In fact, it should have been even a tighter score-sheet, if it wasn't for lucky goals in the first minutes and the last minute of stoppage time in the first half. But the tempo of the game was clearly suggesting unders. I think that we better be very careful with those Monday games - I have noticed that in most leagues Monday games (as well as those on Friday) tend to be very under-ish and much slower than usual. By the way, Benfica got very lucky and undeserved victory. They are very helpless without a target man like Cardozo in the center. Do you have any idea when his suspension will be over?! Without him they will have a lot of trouble against Pacos.

[Arsenal V Bayern Munich > Tuesday 19th February]

Re: Arsenal V Bayern Munich > Tuesday 19th February A few thoughts about tonight. First, I don't think it is a good idea to directly apply domestic league form to European competitions. We have seen so many examples in this respect and got so many lessons - Arsenal's win over Barca at Emirates (yes, they had RVP, but it was still a huge upset, as probably this was the best form of Barca during Guardiola's age), Milan smashing Arsenal 4-0 (while Milan were playing poor in Serie A), Liverpool winning the CL amidst another poor Premier League season - just to name a few. Bayern are at the moment one of the two best teams in Europe, together with Barca, and I have absolutely no doubts they will go through. Yet, I am not at all so confident that they will win at Emirates. As mentioned, Arsenal are a major power at home in Europe and should never be underestimated. Plus, don't disregard the fact that, say, a goal-full draw will be a great result for Bayern and I honestly don't see them going "all-in" in the last half an hour if the game is 1:1, 2:2, etc. Despite Bayern's amazing defense, my pick here is BTTS. Yes, they have not conceded since December, but the teams they faced did not possess the attacking force and options of Arsenal, and also it is much easier to be confident in the back when you have 10+ points advantage and you have practically won the title already. In fact, curiously enough, one of my main arguments in favor of Arsenal's scoring against Bayern is Arsenal's own...defense. Yes, it is poor and disorganized, and Mertesacker is slow and clumsy. Major risk for my bet would be Arsenal parking the bus and playing very defensively. But I just don't see how Arsenal can keep a clean-sheet and I believe they will receive a goal sooner rather than later in the game. As far as they concede, Arsenal has no other choice but to utilize their attacking potential as strongly as possible. And I believe that as far as the game becomes very open, Arsenal could and will get a goal. I still prefer BTTS to overs because I think that in case the score is 1:1, the game will slow down as both teams will be more or less content with such result. BTTS @ 1.70

[La Liga > 15th - 17th February]

Re: La Liga > 15th - 17th February Valladolid - Atletico Madrid I watched the last two games of Atletico. I always thought that the sympathetic team of Simeone does not have the potential to keep their form throughout the whole season and at some point they will drop into huge crisis. I think this moment has come. Atletico played terrible football vs Vallecano and Rubin. Rayo Vallecano totally outplayed them and left them no air to breath, while Rubin easily overcame them despite playing with one man less for the second half. Atletico was completely devoid of ideas in both games, showed nervousness and clumsy first touch, very dull play on the wings (not a single good break-through), terrible supply for Falcao who gets isolated, lack of speed and obvious exhaustion. Playing away at a difficult pitch in Valladolid comes at a very bad moment for Atletico. I feel that the home team will exploit the crisis in Atletico. Valladolid @ 3.75

[Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13]

Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13

Agree with Fedar that's what i said, no value in 1.6 for vitesse. In this one we agree in ajax - bucaresti we did not ;)

And you were right about that one. :) I missed something important - Steaua were without many key players.

[Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13]

Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13

Sorry' date=' I forgot that he recieved a red card last game.. It is a blow but FC Groningen away is terrible and Vitesse is a fortress at home. Van der heijden will play on Janssen's spot in midfield and he is capable of doing that. Defense is pretty solid with a lot of speed against Zeefuik the striker of Groningen. And he is very slow, big man but they can isolate him nicely. I think vitesse is more than capable with this squad to win at home against a weak away side.[/quote'] But is it worth it at 1.60?! I like a lot Vitesse because of their attractive attacking style, but in fact they are not at all so successful and secure at home this season. They have won just 4 out of 11 home games. Does it look to you like a 1.60 material?! Especially without their best midfielder. I know Groningen, and they indeed play ugly football and lack quality in attack. But they are a very physical side and are not that easy to break through. And they can always do something from set pieces.

[Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February]

Re: Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February Atletico - Rubin Atletico are absolutely clinical at home - they have got 21 consecutive home wins! The last time they failed to win at home in any competition was on 2nd of May 2012 when they drew with Sociedad. I doubt there is any other team in Europe that can boast such record. The secret of Atletico's home form is their collective play, which includes fierce pressing of opposition deep into their own half, plus the amazing goal scoring talent of Falcao and Diego Costa. 9 out of the last 10 home games of Atletico finished with a clean sheet victory for them. Given that this is a two-legged tournament game, it will be very important for them not to concede. Rubin are a tough side, but they are under-performing in the Russian league, despite the money invested in them and the quality players. They are clearly an under-ish and defensive minded side. They are difficult to break through. I suspect Atletico might take some time before they score the opener. The later the home side opens the score (if they score first), the bigger the chances that they won't concede a goal. Atletico win to nil @ 2.10 (bet 365)

[Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February]

Re: Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February Leverkusen - Benfica Two excellent goal-scoring teams meet here and the price for over 2.5 is 1.80 - nearly as much as the unders (they are 2.00). I particularly trust Benfica for this over. They have a joke defense and will certainly get punished by powerful Leverkusen attack. On the other hand, Benfica are outstanding when they go forward - they got excellent and pacey wingers, very good shooters from distance and the mighty forward Cardozo acting as an anchor in attack. A lot of Benfica games go over 2.5 exactly because this match of very strong attack and poor defending. Over 2.5 @ 1.80

[Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February]

Re: Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February

Fedar I'm agree with you about Ajax they play very bad agains Roda but on the other side Steaua was playing only friendlies in last two months and if Ajax want to go in next round they must win at home. Same thing is with Anzhi,Zenith and Dinamo Kyev,dont know how is their form since they didn't play in their ligues. Anyone have some infos about Italian teams are they gonna play with strongest team and how serious they look at EL since we know that in group stage Napoli was travel at Stockholm and Dnipro without some important players?

Dzontra, I agree that the form of Steaua may be questionable, but people seem to forget how well Steaua did away from home in the group stage - not a single loss against tough teams like Stuttgart, Molde and Kobenhavn. And people sometimes over-emphasize this thing with the winter break and only friendlies being played. Shakhtar yesterday totally deserved to beat one of the best teams in Europe - Dortmund, and they also had played just friendlies so far. Steaua is not Shakhtar, but also Ajax is not Dortmund. I know the Romanian team, and they can defend well, and they really enjoy when they are left to play on the break. The point here is about the price. 1.50 is very low and undeserved in my opinion. Ajax should be 2.00 - all the stats prove it, and knowing teams in detail also proves this. Don't forget that Ajax are a very young and inexperienced team, and this is not an advantage when we talk about European tournaments. Taking Ajax at any price below 2.00 is not a good deal in my view, and at 1.50 it is certainly a bad one.

[FA Cup > 12th - 18th February]

Re: FA Cup > 12th - 18th February

Everton HT/FT, 3-1 4-1 EFC, Lightning wont strike twice...Moyes wont rest anyone, he needs the supporters back on side, plus its a very very long time since EFC lost two on the bounce, they always seem to come back with a win after a defeat. Added to this local bragging rights over LFC, this wont be lost on the club.

I agree that Everton win is the most likely outcome. However, I insist that 1.33 is too low to bet on an away FA cup game against a side of bullies on a dodgy pitch. And don't forget that a draw will see Everton host the return leg. Which means that in case the score is equal with 20 mins to go, the Toffies might not push that much for the victory, when they can decide everything on their home soil.

[Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February]

Re: Rest Of Matches > Thurs 14th February

This final we be played in the Amsterdam Arena. So extra motivation for ajax, they have to score and win this game against bucuresti because playing there will be difficult for every team. Ajax are having no problems with their starting line up, no big injuries. Last week against roda, ajax played well but was not able to score the second goal and roda was very lucky. One thing the missed last week was a real striker, De Jong was playing there but is more a number 8 or 10. So big chance Sigthorsson will play again after his long injury, but he is still not able to play 90 min. Cuenca on loan from Barca can play. Probarly line up: Vermeer, V Rhijn, Alderweireld, Moisander, Blind, Poulsen, Eriksen, De jong, Cuenca, Sigthorsson, Fischer. Or maybe De Jong will play as striker than Schone will play on the midfield. Bet Ajax to win Odds 1.50 10 units

Mate, did you watch the game between Ajax and Roda?! You say they played well. In my opinion, they were terrible. Just to make it clear for people who did not watch the game - Ajax could barely create any decent chance and they made so many stupid and elementary mistakes. I would never take a 1.50 for such inconsistent team against a very experienced side like Steaua. Just my opinion, though.

[Last 16 > Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund > Wed 13th February]

Re: Last 16 > Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund > Wed 13th February

Clearly the way to go here is "over 2.5" and there is no argument about this. I know there's nothing certain in football, it is a first leg, and even El Classico turned "under" soon, but at such price (I took it at 1.80 yesterday, now its 1.75) over 2.5 is just a must. Even if the game produces less than 3 goals, the price around 1.80 when such extremely high scoring and attacking teams meet is absolutely outstanding. Even if both teams start very cautiously, as soon as a goal falls, this game could turn crazy within minutes. Over 2.5 @ 1.75

In retrospect, the bet looked easy, but in fact, the tempo was slow, and besides the goals, there weren't many good chances. Maybe the 1.80 was a fair price. I am happy with my win, but am not sure if it was such a good bet. Nevertheless, the return game is an "all-in" over. But I will speak about it later.

[Scottish Football > 12th to 16th February]

Re: Scottish Football > 12th to 16th February

My best bet for wednesday is between Inverness and Kilmarnock, ICT are having a great season and have the SPL's top goalscorer in McKay, Kilmarnock recentley knocked Inverness out the cup on their home turf an picked up a good win at home to motherwell at the weekend. The last 2 times Kilmarnock have travelled the 6 hour round trip to Inverness it has resulted in 1-1 draws. I can see this being another tight affair and im going to go with small stakes for the hatrick of 1-1 results so my bets are as follows Under 2.5 goals 5/4 stan james 1pt Full time result Draw 13/5 paddypower 2pt FS 1-1 7/1 hills 1pt

Impressive job, mate! Cheers! ;)

[Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13]

Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13

Beira-Mar– Porto: Beira-Mar have one of the worst defenses of the Portuguese league. They concede in every game they play at home so far, in the last 3 matches they have received 9 goals and for this match they will miss central defender Tonel due to injury. From Porto's side James Rodriguez have started training again this week after one month injured. Perhaps this match comes a bit too early for him as the main goal will be to have him ready for Malaga next week.Atsu have started training again today after returning from international duty and he's also a possibility for Friday's match. It would be important for Porto to have at least one of them available. Currently there are no strong options for the wings and Izmaylov have no physical condition yet to play 90 minutes so he will probably be replaced at around 60 min of the match. Last week young Sebá from the B team entered as a substitute but he is not ready yet to play at this level. VitorPereira will fill the strongest squad possible as there is plenty of time to recover before Malaga. Porto normally doesn't loose points in two matches in a row and they are far superior to Beira-Mar so I expect a smooth victory here. Benfica-Académica: Matic and Cardozo are both suspended for Benfica and this match arrives only 3 days after important match in Leverkusen for Europa League. However Benfica's too strong at home for a disappointing Académica. I expected that, after recovering several players from injury and not having to play in the Portuguese cups or Europa League, Académica would improve drastically but in the last two matches we saw poor performances from them. Edinho will be back in contention and he will probably play as lone sriker sending Cisse to the bench again. All in all I also expect a smooth victory from Benfica. Rio-Ave– Braga: The most exciting match of the weekend in Portugal for me. Both have very good attacking players and are offensive minded. Bebe (Rio-Ave) and Eder (Braga) are in top form and it will be very difficult for both defenses to stop them. In fact I expect several goals on this one. Braga's defense is leaking everywhere and it is rumored tha tleft back Ismaily will be transferred to Shaktar Donetsk this week. Rio – Ave will miss two regular defenders due to suspension: Marcelo and Lionn. Hard to predict a winner but instead I expect an entertaining game with lots of chances and goals.

Mate, thanks once again for your great contribution regarding Liga zon Sagres! I will share briefly my opinion, although I am not Portuguese. I am sure about both Porto and Benfica wins. Last week was just the bad day for both teams. Porto started a little bit slowly and negligently, they conceded an unfortunate goal, but afterwards they smashed the guests and it was a miracle they did not get the victory. Anyway, I feel that this season Porto feels better when they play away from home - maybe it is because opponents open up more when hosting Porto, maybe it is that Porto underestimates when playing at Do Dragao, maybe the cold atmosphere at their own stadium (little home audience) also affects them. But I don't see them leaving any chance for poor Beira Mar - at least a 2 goal margin win for the Dragons in my opinion. Benfica also were very unfortunate against Nacional. Their poor defending and goal-keeper let them down. Still, the Eagles were very powerful up-front and created plenty of chances, it was a huge chance for Nacional that they held up the draw. I am sure that Benfica will totally give their best against Academica. Nevertheless, I will be more careful handicaps here, because of Benfica's leaky defense and because of Academica's good performance in the last few seasons. But I don't see Benfica missing this one, even if they win with just a goal margin. As to Braga's game, it is a big gamble. Sporting Braga are very attractive team to watch and they earn sympathies from neutral supporters, but honestly, they are not trustworthy enough and they are not the same class as Porto and Benfica. So, I would skip betting on this one.

[La Liga > 9th - 11th February]

Re: La Liga > 9th - 11th February

0-4 Bet lost. Sorry for that. Bilbao actually played much better the whole first half, but Espanyol still managed to score and even after the HT Bilbao was a bit sharper, but then the guests socred 2-0 and Bilbao collapsed...

The story of Athletic Bilbao's season 2012-13.

[FA Cup > 12th - 18th February]

Re: FA Cup > 12th - 18th February

Any idea on Oldam-Everton? Oldam put out Liverpool on 4th round...can they surprise again? i think normally AW & OV 2,5 should be nice here. news on Anichebe?Oldam aren't playing good on League One but they have few dangerous players like Iwelumo!

I would not trust Everton at 1.33 - no way. Not with their leaky defense and suspecting that the pitch at Oldam can be once again as terrible as it was against Pool. Everton certainly should perform better than Liverpool, as they are very physical and won't let the home team bully them the way they did with Liverpool. However, 1.33 is too low.

[Last 16 > Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund > Wed 13th February]

Re: Last 16 > Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund > Wed 13th February Clearly the way to go here is "over 2.5" and there is no argument about this. I know there's nothing certain in football, it is a first leg, and even El Classico turned "under" soon, but at such price (I took it at 1.80 yesterday, now its 1.75) over 2.5 is just a must. Even if the game produces less than 3 goals, the price around 1.80 when such extremely high scoring and attacking teams meet is absolutely outstanding. Even if both teams start very cautiously, as soon as a goal falls, this game could turn crazy within minutes. Over 2.5 @ 1.75

[Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February]

Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February The value here is clearly with United in my view. Definitely the short home price is not realistic. Main argument in favor of Real Madrid is that their midfield is superior to United's. I agree that technically they are better, however, as a person who have watched probably 80-90% of Real Madrid's games this season (as well as many of United's), I claim that United's midfield have strong advantage in terms of physicality in the middle of the pitch. The likes of Ozil, Khedira, Modric and even at moments Xabi are playing really soft this season. They lose tremendous amount of physical challenges and this is in my view the main reason behind the crisis in Real Madrid. Whenever they play against intense pressure and physical side, Real struggle a lot. This weakness also exposes the problems in defense as it leaves the back line vulnerable for counter-attacks. Something similar happened when Real met Borussia. Jurgen Klopp's side was pressing very heavily Real Madrid, and as far as they got the ball, they quickly, without wasting time in possession, move it towards the wing. They were trying to finish their attacks in not more than 3-4 passes. I expect Man United to copy the game-plan and attitude of Borussia. They will surely let Real Madrid have the ball and will pack up the zone in front of their penalty area. But I expect that as far as Madrid players cross the middle of the pitch, the Devils will press them very heavily and they won't spare some tough challenges. As far as they get the ball, United will try to move it as quickly as possible to the wings. In this manner, Man United's midfield technical inferiority will not be very important factor, as they won't try to play possession football and will carry out their attacks as quick as possible. If players like Ozil and Khedira are once again too soft when they need to show more determination and physical strength, then Real will have tremendous problems. At this price, United's double chance is the only way to go. United or Draw @ 2.40

[Bundesliga > 9th - 10th February]

Re: Bundesliga > 9th - 10th February Simeon, Bayern are not playing CL football this week! Anyway, I will be very surprised if Bayern don't cover this. In fact, I expect them to beat S04 heavier and probably demolish them. I happened to watch several games of S04 lately - Greuther Furth, Mainz and Hannover, and I could not stop but notice that nearly every attack of their opponents is either a goal or a goal-scoring chance. GF for instance approached S04 penalty area like three times for the whole game and they scored two and missed another 100% chance. S04 defense is a complete joke, and as it was mentioned above, they are extremely vulnerable at the flanks - that Uchida guy is a terrible defender, and although Bastos offers a lot when going forward, he is also doubtful when defending. Schalke probably have one of the worst defenses in the whole Bundesliga. I don't see what they can offer to this game in terms of improvement. So, the only chance for Bayern failing to deliver will be if the Bavarians heavily underestimate their opponent. Not impossible, given the state of S04, but I strongly doubt so. Because of their name and reputation, Schalke are still a strong teaser for Bayern, and I expect Bavarians will be eager to score as many goals against them as possible. Probably if the same team had come to Allianz Arena under different name (like for example Greuther Furt, Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim etc), they would have stand much better chance to get a decent result. But when they are named Schalke, it means that automatically Bayern's motivation will go up for this one and they won't spare goals.

[Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13]

Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 I also think that Anderlecht should win this relatively easy. They feel much less pressure as they are far ahead of the rest, they have great H2H in Brussels in Standard and they are atrociously good against top teams this season. They are of definitely higher class and possess a squad with much more depth, especially now when Mbokani is back and one of the hottest strikers in Eredivisie Armenteros joined. Standard do have good defense, directed by the excellent Van Damme, but I don't think they are a big threat going forward. Ezequiel is surely a very promising player and probably a future star, but a 19-year old cannot be on the same level with some of the most prominent and experienced players in Belgium that play for Anderlecht at the moment. My call is win to nil for Anderlecht, probably 2-0.

[The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt We continue with the second bet. Bet 2: Combo 1. Everton - Aston Villa Everton Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.44 2. Schalke - Greuther Schalke @ 1.36 3. Wolfsburg - Augsburg 1X@ 1.25 Stake: 72.66 euros Potential Winnings: 105.21 euros.

[The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt

So, fellas, it is time to get started. Today and tomorrow I have planned four steps of combos and at each of them I will play all-in. Step 1: Combo 1. Werder - Hannover Over 1.5 @ 1.15 2. Besiktas - Karabuk Over 1.5 @ 1.18 3. Roma - Cagliari Cagliari Clean Sheet: no @ 1.071 Stake: 50 euros Potential Winnings: 22.66 euros

Besiktas - Karabuk 2:2 Werder - Hannover 2:0 Roma - Cagliari 1:4 (pending) Bet 1 - Won. Winnings: 22.66 euros New Bank: 72.66 euros Comments: Obviously Roma and Besiktas came very easily, but the big pain in the bottom was Werder-Hannover. Opening goal in the 85th minute! One would say I was very lucky, but I think I was also quite unlucky - Werder - Hannover should have been over 2.5 by the 30th minute and on any other day this game with so many chances on both ends would have featured 5-6 goals at least.

[Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13]

Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13

...I'm surprised as well as this sort of thestake is usually not something you see at Bet365. No doubt they will have noted the accounts of those who took the 2.75.

Well, this is maybe because I always prefer the late bets, because despite missing on such pricing mistakes, in most of the cases I insist on knowing the latest news and preferably the starting line-ups of the teams that I know, because it just happened many times that managers made perplexing decisions about the starting eleven and it would make me feel insecure about the bet from the start.