Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: Group E > Dec 6th (FC Copenhagen, Molde, Steaua Buch't, VfB Stuttgart) You are right - sorry for confusing others. But I still think Steaua won't lose in Copenhagen.
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Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
Chelsea - Nordsee 6-1 :cheersChelsea - Nordsee Chelsea -2.5 AH @ 2.075 I know this sounds like a mug shot especially given that Rafa is managing Chelsea, but I think that the circumstances are screaming for a huge home win here. Yes, Rafa is a big coward who always prefer to make sure not to lose, rather than trying to win at any price. And if this was a normal group game, we would have seen most likely a 1-0 or 2-0 home win. However, even cowardly Rafa realizes very well that he practically have nothing to lose here - Chelsea is a class above their opponent, their destiny is not in their hands, and anything apart from a huge victory will refuel the stick Rafa gets from the fans. So, I have every reason to believe that for this particular game Rafa will give it a go, and will try to win as heavy as possible, in order to lighten the pressure on himself. I would not be very surprised if I see something like the game between Liverpool and Besiktas at Anfield under Rafa several years ago. But let's stick with the more realistic one: -2.5 should be a margin that Chelsea could cover without so much trouble. -
Re: Group G > Dec 5th (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)
A hard one, but still a victory - Celtic - Spartak 2-1 FT.Celtic - Spartak Moscow The price for Celtic win rose again to acceptable level - 1.72. I think I should take it now. Spartak are a very good team and if they played vs Celtic at any other round of the group stage under different circumstances, they will be very hard to get beaten, but now I think they will more or less have surrender mentality. I think they would rather think about winning their next game in the Russian League where they are lagging behind, and won't care about meaningless CL fixture. Moreover, the money prize for a win is not so tempting for a team like Spartak, because it is not such considerable part of their budget. Last but not least, Russian and Easter European teams in general does not have this German mentality to take seriously every game, even when they have nothing to play for. Many people continue to under-estimate Celtic but they proved to be a force in the CL. Indeed, they are not that technical and do not really have world class players, but I think that the physical pressure they are going to employ on Spartak tonight will be tremendous. Having the match of their lives, getting the fanatic support from the crowd behind them, having gained Euro confidence already, I am sure that Celtic will totally outrun Spartak and will win more than 80% of the man-to-man challenges. This should be more than enough to secure a victory against a sluggish and disinterested Spartak. Celtic @ 1.72 -
Re: Group F > Dec 5th (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Bayern - Bate 4-1 FT Nearly full house here! Lucky goal in the last minute denied my third bet. Also stupid red card for Boateng when it was only 1-0.Bayern will be fully motivated because they still have to defend the first place in the group, for which they need to win this game. Definitely a handicap victory for Bayern with maximum stakes. Two goals difference for Bayern here is the worst possible scenario if the Bavarians are extremely unlucky in front of goals. BATE have been for few weeks already finished with official football and in a Christmas mood and players have probably relaxed their regime and indulged in life pleasures. In case Bayern fails at home against Borussia, I would expect even more severe hammering of BATE at Allianz arena. My advice here is to do triple bet with different stakes. Bayern -1.5 @ 1.425 Max. Stake Bayern - 2.5@ 2.025 Medium Stake Bayern -3.5 @ 3.200 Small Stake -
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
No' date=' Suarez scored for Uruguay in the first half. And a big win for South Africa against France could have put SA through as well. My main point that the draw tonight shouldn't be as low as 1.90 as it has gone down to now. These things are never that certain. In my example either Mexico or Uruguay could have gone out. Shakhtar are already through and even if the win the group they could still face Real Madrid in the next round.[/quote'] You are right. Actually, the situation then pretty much resembled the one today. So, Mexico and Uruguay did show moral. We are about to see whether Shakhtar and Juve will follow. -
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) Chelsea - Nordsee Chelsea -2.5 AH @ 2.075 I know this sounds like a mug shot especially given that Rafa is managing Chelsea, but I think that the circumstances are screaming for a huge home win here. Yes, Rafa is a big coward who always prefer to make sure not to lose, rather than trying to win at any price. And if this was a normal group game, we would have seen most likely a 1-0 or 2-0 home win. However, even cowardly Rafa realizes very well that he practically have nothing to lose here - Chelsea is a class above their opponent, their destiny is not in their hands, and anything apart from a huge victory will refuel the stick Rafa gets from the fans. So, I have every reason to believe that for this particular game Rafa will give it a go, and will try to win as heavy as possible, in order to lighten the pressure on himself. I would not be very surprised if I see something like the game between Liverpool and Besiktas at Anfield under Rafa several years ago. But let's stick with the more realistic one: -2.5 should be a margin that Chelsea could cover without so much trouble.
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Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
The final group game of Group A of World Cup 2010. Neither Mexico and Uruguay had secured their place in the last 16' date=' but a draw in their final game vs each other would guarantee both teams to go through. The game was not a draw though, Uruguay won.[/quote'] Yes, true. The only scenario which would take anyone between Mexico and Uruguay out, was a big French victory vs. South Africa. And the winner and only goal for Uruguay took place in the last few minutes. At that moment France was losing 3-0 to SA. So, I don't think that this example is very relevant. Maybe if Chelsea are losing 0-3 to Nordseeland by the 75th minute, Juve and Shakhtar may give it a go. -
Re: Group G > Dec 5th (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow) Celtic - Spartak Moscow The price for Celtic win rose again to acceptable level - 1.72. I think I should take it now. Spartak are a very good team and if they played vs Celtic at any other round of the group stage under different circumstances, they will be very hard to get beaten, but now I think they will more or less have surrender mentality. I think they would rather think about winning their next game in the Russian League where they are lagging behind, and won't care about meaningless CL fixture. Moreover, the money prize for a win is not so tempting for a team like Spartak, because it is not such considerable part of their budget. Last but not least, Russian and Easter European teams in general does not have this German mentality to take seriously every game, even when they have nothing to play for. Many people continue to under-estimate Celtic but they proved to be a force in the CL. Indeed, they are not that technical and do not really have world class players, but I think that the physical pressure they are going to employ on Spartak tonight will be tremendous. Having the match of their lives, getting the fanatic support from the crowd behind them, having gained Euro confidence already, I am sure that Celtic will totally outrun Spartak and will win more than 80% of the man-to-man challenges. This should be more than enough to secure a victory against a sluggish and disinterested Spartak. Celtic @ 1.72
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Re: Group G > Dec 5th (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow) Barca - Benfica Both to score seems like a very safe bet to me. Barcelona concedes a lot of goals this season, and what is more surprising - they are weaker defensively at home. This is true both in Primera and in CL. In CL they conceded in both home games, two goals against Spartak. Benfica will most probably need to score goals in this one, so they will open up. And they have some great attacking guys like Ola John and Cardozo who will cause trouble for the carefree Barca defense and it is very likely they will sneak at least one. Barca scoring at home against Benfica is safer than US government bonds. BTTS @ 1.61 (bet365)
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Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) Bookies have basically removed almost all handicap options on Shakhtar - Juve. Sorry, but for me this is a clear draw.
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Re: Group A > Dec 4th (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)
PSG - Porto 2-1 FT Fail! :( Did not see the game, should check the highlights and see whether PSG were a lot better.PSG - Porto PSG are once again strongly over-valued here. I have the feeling that bookies are pricing more their money, rather than their actual quality at the moment. They might have great individuals but it is still far away from being a solid enough team. And they are too dependable on one man. I think Porto is definitely the smarter and the more confident team, which can easily get the draw they need to keep the first place. By looking at their stats you can check how difficult it is to beat Porto and how rarely it happens. And don't get confused by their present loss against Braga for the national cup - I think Porto prefers to concentrate on two fronts and leave aside the two cups in Portugal (naational cup and league cup).Porto love playing counter-attacking football with their sharp and fast players, and they are also very solid at the back. Porto or Draw @ 1.72 (bet365) -
Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)
I was right that the price on Real handicap will fall - now it is 1.72' date=' it was 1.95 on Monday morning. I still suggest taking this handicap after we are more or less aware of Real line-up and after Mancini's statement which just reconfirmed the obvious thing - that City do not care about Europa League. Now the chances of City winning in Dortmund are really negligible, which means that Ajax also would not care much. I expect strong contribution from Cristiano here, as he is still competing for the Golden Ball. Also Modric and Callejon should make strong impact.[/quote'] Real -1.5 Won! However, I am absolutely shocked from what Real served us in the last 30-35 minutes. Before that, Madrid destroyed them and could have easily scored 5 or 6 past Ajax goalkeeper. Then, Real just stopped running and playing. They literally stopped playing. They did not just slow down and pass the ball between defense and midfield as other topsides would have done - they just started walking slowly around, attacking the Ajax man with the ball only as a last resort and shooting the ball aimlessly ahead whenever they got it. Benzema and Kaka were particularly "noteworthy" - even a crippled grandma could have easily dribbled with the ball past them in the last half an hour. Maybe the possession after the 60th minute was something like 80% in favor of Ajax. I was pretty sure that Ajax was going to score at least another one goal and my money would have lost. Thanks God, Mou put in two young guys from B squad (Morata and a 17 year old) who were really eager to show their ability, and they started pressing Ajax midfield and woke up their teammates. Cheers for Cristiano who also got pissed off with his team-mates falling asleep in the last half an hour and got himself a yellow after he angrily tackled Ajax player (the first tackle by Real Madrid for 20-25 minutes). This is the second time I see Real showing such poor attitude. The first time was a month ago against Zaragoza at Bernabeu, where they were taking a nap during the whole second half. Each punter who would bet on Real must be aware of these occasions and make up their mind very carefully when doing the handicap bets. -
Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)
Dortmund - City 1-0 FT Bet Won! :okDortmund has been experiencing tremendous pressure in the last weeks as they have been having huge amount of very tight and intense games for a very short period of time. And they are still to meet Bayern today for the Bundesliga. The squad is relatively short, especially in areas like midfield, so playing the most intense football on three fronts must have started to affect Borussia. Against Dusseldorf for instance, I saw a lot of exhaustion in the home team, their legs seemed "heavy", they did not keep their regular fast tempo and dynamic football. I have many reasons to believe that they won't put better performance vs. City. I would have backed City under these circumstances and given that they have at least a little motivation to compete in EL. However, they meet United immediately after the Dortmund game. Therefore, I see them heavily rotating. I think that the right choice here must be Under 2.5. It is priced at 2.15 - a price which reflects the previous results of both teams in the group and their squad potential, but does not reflect their present motivation and the squad they are probably going to field. -
Re: Group G > Dec 5th (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)
Celtic to qualify @1' date='50 seems very good to me. Since Benfica will play against Barca at Camp Nou I think that the only way Celtic is not qualified is if they loose vs Spartak. There's a 0,05 difference between Celtic to win (1,55) and Celtic qualified (1,50) but with the second one you can win even if they draw, assuming that Barca will win vs Benfica.[/quote'] Great spot! People here might be forgetting that in the most likely scenario even a draw will be enough for Celtic. After all, Barcelona are not a charity foundation, especially at Nou Camp. I don't give more than 15-20% chances of Benfica not to lose there, which means there is at least 80-85% chance that Celtic would qualify with a draw. So, just think of these likely scenario: Barca wins at home, Spartak restore part of their pride by gaining a draw in Glasgow, Celtic gets the draw that qualifies them among the top 16 Europe. Everybody happy, only Benfica and punters who betted on Celtic victory are scr**ed. -
Re: Group E > Dec 6th (FC Copenhagen, Molde, Steaua Buch't, VfB Stuttgart) Stuttgart has to win against Molde at home and this is the safest bet of the day. Highly motivated team (German team always motivated for EL) against a team in vacation. Steaua has to keep the draw in Copenhagen or else they fall off-board and their place is taken by the host team. I think both teams will be fully motivated. Probably the most difficult game to call for the round. But I kind of fancy Steaua to get their job done.
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Re: Group A > Dec 4th (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)
Playing with so many reserves against Braga answers this question.I'm not really sure Porto 'leave aside' the two domestic cups considering they have won the super up for the last 5years (it's only a one off game) and have won the other cup 3 out of the last 4 years! -
Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I was right that the price on Real handicap will fall - now it is 1.72, it was 1.95 on Monday morning. I still suggest taking this handicap after we are more or less aware of Real line-up and after Mancini's statement which just reconfirmed the obvious thing - that City do not care about Europa League. Now the chances of City winning in Dortmund are really negligible, which means that Ajax also would not care much. I expect strong contribution from Cristiano here, as he is still competing for the Golden Ball. Also Modric and Callejon should make strong impact.
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Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Besides Modric, also Adam, Nacho, Ronaldo, Coentrao, Benzema and Khedira are confirmed to start. Mourinho also said that Morata, Rodriguez and Cheryshev will be on the bench but might enter later. So, the key changes will be the new goal-keeper and Nacho in defense.
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Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)
You're welcome, mate! Waiting for the team list sounds smart if you plan to bet on Ajax. But if anyone fancy the handicap on Real (very good price at the moment - 1.95), they better take it now, because I am pretty sure it is going to drop by tomorrow evening.Cheers Fedar. As I said I will wait for the teams to be announced but I will keep that in mind. -
Re: Group A > Dec 4th (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Yes, they are, and so will be maybe Juve, Arsenal and PSG. But the rest of second place teams are more or less crap. While, I would say that nearly all of the group winners are unpleasant opponents. Besides, first place teams get huge advantage to be hosting the return game. In sum, it might not be a question of life and death whether you will be first or second in the group, but it is definitely worth a try to fight for the first place and it is not reasonable to sacrifice it because of one stupid domestic league game.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Loko Sofia - Chernomorets 3-1 FT Fail!Today we got the last game for the Bulgarian Cup round between Lokomotiv Sofia and Chernomorets and I got a hot tip for you. If you remember correctly, I tipped successfully an away victory for Chernomorets in the same game for the league a few weeks earlier and Chernomorets got them with 3-0. I see absolutely no reason not to repeat my choice for today. Difference in class is big and Chernomorets are in a really hot form, plus they have big motivation to progress in the tournament. Loko Sofia, on the other hand, is in dismal condition and should be much more concerned about staying in the premier league where they are at 14th place currently. They are amidst a streak of four consecutive defeats, while Chernomorets is having 9 (NINE) consecutive wins!!! Chernomorets has been in Sofia for few days already preparing for this game. Home advantage here will be next to nothing, as the games will be played at neutral venue with very little home support. Chernomorets @ 1.75 (bet365) -
Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) @Lordoftheonionrings Not to discourage you from your bet, but Real are in a series of five consecutive HANDICAP victories against Ajax, achieved just during Mourinho's reign. Two of those victories were, as far as I remember correctly, achieved in a meaningless last game for Real. Plus, I don't really expect Mourinho to play a "very weakened team". He has never done this in the Champions League for Real. He tried to use many B team players in a decided cup game against a third division team last week, and after the score was 0:0 by 60th minute (4:1 for Real in the first one), the stadium began to boo at Jose and this was a topic of hot discussion in Spain during the last week. I don't think he will risk the same attitude again, especially for a CL game. It is certain that Xabi Alonso and Ramos won't play, because if they get a yellow, they will miss the first game of direct eliminations. However, I expect that pretty much the rest of the team will be top players, and I definitely see the likes of Ronaldo, Benzema, Ozil, Khedira etc. on the pitch tomorrow.
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Re: Group G > Dec 5th (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow) GazF1888 pretty much told the whole story. I would add that there are only two factors behind Celtic under-performance in the Scottish league: Champions League commitment and lack of motivation after Rangers dropped. If you check Celtic results, you will notice that almost all their slips at the domestic scene were connected to CL games - they took place either immediately before or after them. So, I won't be backing probably Celtic against Kilmarnock over the weekend, but I think they will get the job done on Wednesday. As about Neil Lennon, the guy is just more colorful, something like an Irish version of Mourinho. We should not take these words so seriously.
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Re: West Ham v Liverpool > Sun 9th December Liverpool got Lucas Leiva back. Whoever is closely familiar with Liverpool knows that he is the second most important player for this team after Suarez. Liverpool's midfield should be much tighter, aggressive and dynamic.
Group H > Dec 6th (Inter Milan, Neftchi, Partizan Belgrade, Rubin Kazan)
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: Group H > Dec 6th (Inter Milan, Neftchi, Partizan Belgrade, Rubin Kazan) League Europa is a meaningless tournament, especially in the last rounds of the group phases. Partizan - Rubin is a typical example of such a meaningless game, which both teams want to get rid of as quick as possible. So, why not us punters make some money out of this total lack of motivation?! I see it very unlikely that we gonna see many goals here and think that unders are very safe bet. Here are the reasons: - Rubin topped the group and has important game with Spartak Moscow. - Partizan already out of competition and Serbian league finished - probably Christmas mood. - Climate in Partizan's dressing room is very bad - players haven't received salaries for a few months and are opening up their mouth for a strike, head coach is in verbal confrontation with the board of directors and is rumored to get sacked soon. I would except Partizan to be the only team to have at least a little motivation here - just to get at least one victory in the group - but these factors make me believe will stop any flare in Partizan. - Very cold weather in Belgrade. Little attendance expected. Partizan-Rubin Under2.5 @ 1.75 (b365)