Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13
Come on, mate - mistakes happen, this is not mathematics after all, it is betting. But I am surprised how miserable Fenerbahce are. They have no idea what to do with the ball - just running around like wild donkeys (main donkey - Dirk Kuyt), they did not make any good combination - they were just passing aimlessly the ball around until somebody would just aimlessly cross it into the penalty area. And to add to this, they are pathetic defensively. If I did not knew which teams were playing, I would think that the guests are one of the top teams - they played so smart, calm and mature, while the hosts are some weak team from lower parts of the table, which shows a lot of enthusiasm, but little skill and maturity.Could it be more wrong ?!?!?!!?? I called the devil in bold letters :) I should have predicted any surprise result would take the game Over 2,5 Goals. But I wouldnt play Antalya win anyway. Sorry guys. Probably I shouldnt write any predictions just preview. :( FULL TIME: Fenerbahce-Antalayspor: 1-3 -
Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13 Deniz, that was really one great review. I think that 1.50 is a good price for a win in these circumstances. I know both Fener and Galata drop points at home from time to time, but they rarely do so in a must-win situation. And I feel this one is a must-win situation, where Fener players will take this game very seriously. I feel that the bookies haven't counter this motivation factor in their 1.50 price, which is entirely based on some uncertainties in the home form of Fenerbahce (otherwise it would have been around 1.20 as it is for most other dominant teams in other leagues). But I have a question for you. Your picks seem somehow contradictory. You consider it very likely that Antaliya will score and at the same time you expect an under game and home win. Which one do you favor the most?!
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Re: Chelsea v Manchester United > Oct 28
As regards the obvious and shameless favoring of United by officials, this league beats even the Bulgarian and the other Balkan leagues. Even here I haven't seen such consistent, continuous and ugly support from referees for one team. Shame on the FA and shame on old whiskeynose and his dirty games.This league could almost rival Serie A for corruption. -
Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13 Deniz, any insights about tomorrow's game between Fener and Antaliya?! The guests are one of the pleasant surprises of the tournament so far. However, Fenerbahche seems to raise a lot their motivation and display when they face good teams, and Antaliya should be considered as such since they are ahead of Fenerbahce in the table. Despite that, the only game when Antaliya played a top team, they got destroyed by Galatasaray at home. Which gives a hint that they probably are not that good and will soon drop significantly down the table. Fenerbahche must win this one because they are getting too much behind in the ranking. Their expected very high motivation for this one should probably mean that they won't oversleep the first 30-40 minutes as they do often in other home games and will push strongly from the start.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
No need to freak out guys. It is just difference in the views between the bookies and the market. The bookies thought 2.3 is the best price, while the market (which pumps in the most amount of money on the day of the game) though that this was too low. The game finished 1-1, but I think that the bookies got it more correct than the market, given that CSKA was much better and had so many chances, including two cross-bars.I was going to ask the same thing 2.3 with a local.Odds with bet from 2.20 now are 2.60.Strange thing. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Wonderful job! :clap You got a fat 2.50 price in a relatively easy way as I heard both teams had many goal-scoring options.Levski - Lokomotiv Plovdiv BTS with Bet365 at 2,50 Very good odds for this, in the match with CKSA, Levski has showed that they have problems in the back> last 5 matches between these teams got BTS, so I can not see reason to become again. Loko PD will score at least one goal for sure. They have new coach with whom already recorded 2 good games for them. -
Re: Serie A > Oct 27-28
Be careful. Last season Chievo were a very tricky and unpredictable team. They did not lose many good players, so there's reason to believe that they might be dangerous again, despite their bad start. Napoli, on the other hand, started in a great fashion both this and last season. But last year, after in the beginning they were rock-solid at home, they started losing many easy points at San Paolo. There's risk they might again fall into the same trap. In my opinion, odds here are more than correct.Surprised there is no mention of NAPOLI v CHIEVO Napoli winning 4 of 4 at home , while chievo have lost 3 of 3 away makes 2/5 a fair price. Napoli are pumping in the goals, and chievo can't find a goal. The odds are short but I do like 2/5 against an overmatched chievo ! Neil. -
Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 Pietar, I totally go against your bet. Cercle Brugge is a very very poor and harmless team this season. They are probably one of the worst teams in terms of performance in whole Europe. 1-1-8 is a tragic record and they regularly get beaten heavily. The only positive result away from home was in the first round when they got a draw vs. Genk. In the last three away games they lost by a handicap. Standart is not performing up to their standards so far but they are still a very strong team. I managed to watch a few of their games and they do play very good football at least at home. They are 3-0-2 at home, but the losses were first - against surprise of the season Zulte in the first round, and second - in an extremely unfortunate game vs. Gent, when Standard could have easily won by several goals margin, instead they end up losing. In their last home game they won against Belgian super champions from Anderlecht after they were behind. I don't think that the very miserable defense of Cercle could hold the speedy, mighty and diverse Standard attack. It is possible that the guests nick some goal, but I expect Standard to score at least two, and most likely three or more goals. Liege -1 @ 1.800 (bet365)
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
What's so tough about it? Last season CSKA won 5:0 there' date=' Ludogorets 4:1, for levski is needless to say, Montana are their wh*res anyway. Chernomorets won 4:2 (however, they lost 1:0 this season, but they are far poorer compared to last season), and even Slavia and Minyor won 2:1. [/quote'] Are you just accidentally skipping one match here?! Against Litex themselves, which Montana won, and exactly amidst Litex' top form performance. Or maybe also the game in Lovech from last season - 0:0?! How about another game - Montana-Litex 0:0 from 2010?! I am telling you - last season the price for Litex victory in Montana was 1.50. Now it is quite fair to be 1.80, given that Litex level deteriorated and Montana's level is more or less the same. I am not saying that Litex will not win - most probably they will, but the price is correct, so I don't spot any value here. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 As about Montana - Litex , I think the odds are correct. Montana is a tough place to go, unless you are called Levski. Especially Litex drops regularly points at this stadium. And this was with much superior squad than they have now. So, 1.80 is a normal price. I would not touch Etar-Botev either. I see absolutely no reason to bet against a team which improved so much over the last month and which has such a high morale at the moment. Besides, the only reason for them to be poor in the beginning of the season, was the problems the local players had with the Italian management staff. As soon as they got their old manager back, they started playing solid as a rock.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Don't want to get engaged in meaningless arguments, but this line made me laugh so much. He was a champion with Litex?! Are you kidding me - even you and me would have won this title given the circumstances and the methods they were using in these years, and you know it very well. No surprise they kicked him out even after winning them the cup, because they wanted a real coach for the European tournaments, not a muppet. And saying that he did the job for CSKA's title is complete crap - under him the team which had by far the best players in the league, was second-placed and almost got eliminated in their first game in Europe vs. Omonia. Then the new coach stepped in, and without 4 of the best players who were injured, won the gold medals. And you say it was Spasov's work?!Saying that the coach of Botev Plovdiv is poor and they are immature is absolutely rubbish.The head coach of Botev - Spasov has been champion of the league with Litex and actually created the squad of CSKA, which was later taken by Jesic and CSKA won the title and even though people usually praise Jesic, the actual work was done by Spasov. -
Re: Everton v Liverpool > Oct 28
Don't forget that traditions between teams are very important in PL. Everton has poor record vs. Liverpool in the last decade, and apart from several years under Benitez, for most of this time Pool was as inconsistent as it is at the moment.Liverpoool are favourites??? :unsure Crazy! -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
I agree with this one! CSKA got amazing moral bust - a great win in the big derby plus they can now use their best forward. Plus some other positives from just recently - two of the old legends of CSKA began working in the management of the team which was widely approved by fans and is an additional moral bonus for the team. However, my main reason to pick CSKA is that I consider Botev as strong and promising team but at the same time they are very immature in tactical sense and their coach is poor and inconsistent. They tend to jump too bravely into attacking, especially in front of their amazing and fanatic supporters, but they often get caught extremely easily on the break my smarter teams. And now they are facing the team managed by, in my opinion, the best coach in the country - Stoycho Mladenov. In my opinion, he is way too smart and experienced tactically for Botev Plovdiv to match with their poor management. And moreover - he loves playing on the break, that is his favorite style. At the moment, CSKA is very stable in the defense and should not get worried by Botev's expected massive pressure. CSKA has some fast and very dangerous attacking players who enjoy so much empty spaces and counter-attacks, and they without doubt will get many against Botev. I believe this game will largely resemble the spring encounter in Plovdiv, where the other local team - Locomotiv, lost from CSKA by 0:3. Lokomotiv was also in very good shape at that moment and got huge support from the stands. They started attacking on a full-scale from the first minute, but Stoycho Mladenov's tactic closed them down very efficiently, while in the meantime, CSKA was very quick and dangerous in attack and scored three goals.Botev-Cska away win.Cska won the derby against Levski last week but despite that they were weak upfront with no real goal opportunities and 2-3 shots on target for the whole game on the other hand Cska were pretty tight at the back.Botev won away at Lovech but they didn't impress.LItex had some good chances to score but they didn't.Now in a good mood and on fire Cska should win this game in Plovdiv.Bulgarian football association gave them the right to use Michelle Platini(CSKA's last season goalscorer).odds 2.25 with bet365 -
Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2012/2013
LOL - they not only did not attack but in fact Toronto were time wasting and got several yellow cards for that! It is probably the first time in my life where I see the team that needs goals to waste time against the time that is happy with the score. Santos were far superior - they were entering Toronto's penalty area with such an ease as if it was a training session. But they weren't concentrated at all. I got the feeling that if they needed a score they could have easily scored 5 or 6. However, let me stop with the excuses. The fact is that the best lost. Mainly because of Toronto's weird attitude, but also because Santos were a bit careless.Ended Santos Laguna 1 Toronto 0 Yes, I saw some of it :p. As expected, Santos Laguna dominated the game. Toronto, instead of trying to score, chose to pack their half of the pitch to restrict Santos's attacking movement. It reminded me of now North Korea played in the last World Cup - defence no matter what the score. This despite Toronto having to score 3 goals to stand a chance of qualifying. So Toronto rarely went forward, and the anticipated open game never really arrived. Santos had nearly all the chances, most of them in the second half, and eventually scored near the end. Even then Toronto didn't open up. It seems they more or less accepted they didn't stand a chance and just chose to keep the score down - and they succeeded in doing that. -
Re: Group D > Oct 24 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)
I don't know about you guys, but I won't put my money on a City away win when they play with Barry and Milner together. They have been struggling to score goals away with these two in the Premiership, no reason to believe they won't be struggling in CL as well.Ajax v Man City Ajax DNB @ 23/10 Betvictor Ajax: Vermeer, Van Rhijn, Alderweireld, Moisander, Blind, Schone, Poulsen, Eriksen, Sana, De Jong, Babel. Subs: Cillessen, Enoh, Sulejmani, Boerrigter, Veltman, Dijks, Fischer. Man City: Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Toure, Barry, Milner, Aguero, Nasri, Dzeko. Subs: Pantilimon, Sinclair, Kolarov, Tevez, Nastasic, Balotelli, Evans Having looked at these line ups it seems City are coming to Holland with a more reserved approach after only gaining 1 point from there first 2 games. Ajax know how to get the ball down and play and also have alot more european experience than City, I still don't think City are strong enough to be a force in the champions league this season. I expect Ajax to have more possession than people may think and at least get a goal or two. The dutch have always been a tough outfit in Europe and know a loss here could be a fatal blow, after watching City's last few games I feel the price on Ajax here is far to big as the away team still have alot of flaws. -
Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)
In my opinion, the main factor behind the very low price of PSG is not their money but Dinamo Zagreb themselves. Last year, even after 5 group games, bookies still did not believe they could be so bad and probably guessed it was just a beginner's fever. Now they are certain that Dinamo are actually that bad. I have no doubts about the poor status of Dinamo. But I still have a little doubts about PSG. Especially, as somebody pointed out, if they decide to play the Juve thing from yesterday, even a poor side might surprise them. As about Anji - this is team I heavily follow and bet on due to its very predictable and stable game. Believe me - they are not overpriced at all. I will write more about it tomorrow, but i definitely think there's little chance that Anji will lose at Anfield.I was planning on betting on PSG in this game because Dinamo Zagreb are out of their depth at this level (in addition to their off the field problems) but I find it the case that bookies are stingy when pricing up clubs with money (PSG' date=' Anzhi), when it is often the case that these "teams of individuals" take a while to gel. To give an example, PSG are best priced 1.60 to win tonight whilst last season Lyon were best priced 1.63 to beat Dinamo Zagreb [b']at home (they were 2.20 away...a game they won 1-7). Even though Lyon did not have the best of seasons, finishing fourth in Ligue 1, I believe the bookies overestimate the impact of the big money signings made by rich clubs. Another example would be Anzhi priced at a mere 3.3 to win at Anfield (and bear in mind Liverpool themselves are normally dangerously underpriced by the bookies). So to conclude, I believe there is normally value in opposing Dinamo Zagreb in the CL (bookies don't realise how bad they are) but in this case, with PSG serially underpriced, the odds have probably ended up about right, most likely by luck rather than informed judgment on the part of the bookmakers. Just my opinion- and PSG should still win the match particularly with the lack of home support in the stands. -
Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2012/2013 Some comments on tonight's games... 1. Santos Laguna - Toronto Huge class gap here. Mexican teams are the kings of this tournament and Santos Laguna is one of the best teams in Mexico, despite their current standings. Toronto have very poor season in the MSL, where they are the team with the least points and the one which conceded the most goals. They actually get regularly beaten badly in their trips in the MSL. Their away form is a disaster. Partly their performance is due to their enormous injury list which consists of ten people, including six regular starters from last season. Last week they suffered from another blow as key defender Logan Emorygot badly injured.Toronto has only theoretical chance to go through in case they win in Mexico by huge margin which is virtually impossible. Info from Canada is that the team would take this game as a formality. Santos Laguna on the other hand is expected to field a strong line-up (expected to play star-forwards Oribe Peralta and Quintero) and to try to please their home supporters with a big victory. In April this year these two teams played again in this tournament and Santos won in Mexico by 6-2. They also won the away fixture of this edition of the tournament in Toronto by 3-1. It is interesting that they have only victories in home games against non-Mexican teams in this tournaments. I just cannot see past huge victory for Santos. Santos -1.5 @ 1.725 (bet365) 2. Seattle Sounders - Marathon Usually US and Mexican sides have no problem at home in this tournament against other teams from Central America. Seattle Sounders is the definite and undisputed winner of this group. In fact, they have something to play for - despite pleasing their fans, if they win here, they guarantee that they will be among the four best teams in draw for the quarter-finals. However, Seattle are the moment also struggling for a better position in the Major Soccer League play-offs, and they have a vital game vs. LA Galaxy during the weekend. This makes me a bit undecided about this one. However, even if they put some substitute players on, I still think it won't be a problem for them to secure the victory against weaker and demotivated guests. But maybe I will rather skip this one because of the LA Galaxy fixture.
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Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)
That's a very good preview, but I have a question for you. You say that you are sure in PSG's win and at the same time you say that Dinamo's best line is their defense. I have noticed that PSG often struggles against teams with good defense that lock themselves up in their own half of the pitch. Can Dinamo do that?! Can they close down spaces and pressure effectively PSG's midfielders?! My own impressions from Dinamo are that they are not so convincing at the back. They do concede a lot of goals in their league and I remember the games against Ludogorets, when the Croatian defense was very vulnerable.Im from Croatia' date=' and believe me when i tell you PSG will beat Dinamo Zagreb! the only question is what will the diference be. Dinamo is playing champions league second year in a row, last year they lost all 6 games with goal difference 3-22 and two of those 3 they scored to Real Madrid when the spanish team was already winning 6-0. This year Dinamo sold their key player Badelj to HSV for 4 million euros and bought no one spectacular. They are still dominant in their domestic league but croatian first division is nowhere near as good as other european leagues. PSG is not very good either, bought many new players and they simply cant fit in that quickly. Tomorow PSG will miss some standard players from their squad: Sissoko Bodmer Lavezzi Motta Lugano Chantome and Sakho. The reason why i think PSG will win is because Dinamo has a very weak midfield, Brozovic and Kovacic are very young (18 and 19 ) and Callelo isnt playing many matches and is out of form. Dinamos attack is also weak and only their defence is their best part of the team with Tonel(31) and Simunic (35) very slow and old players. PSG have a long bench and anyone who comes on will give their best to win a place in the starting lineup so mi pick for this game is [b']PSG AH -1,5 at 2,60 bet265 stake 10/10 !!!! -
Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)
Of course, this is football and anything can happen - yesterday Celtic was like 30 seconds away from getting a draw at Camp Nou. However, I have the feeling that here 1.30 would have been a more correct price for Porto. Porto sometimes does start slowly at home against weaker teams and has to score late goals to secure the win (and in fact, Porto almost always manages to get the late goals they need in Liga Sagres, something like United in Premiership). However, Dynamo is a relatively big name and this is their biggest disadvantage. Porto will treat them seriously and will raise their game. While Dynamo would have much bigger chances to strike a surprise if they were called BATE or Midtilland, as Porto will surely underestimate such teams.I remeber a game Porto lost against Rio. Now questions : (Ofcourse these matches arenot same but may help to clear a bet idea) At that day I bet on Both Teams Not To Score. I won but the result was funny. I thought Rio couldnt score :D But reality Porto couldnt. I dunno how Rio played to stop Porto. Sometimes other teams watch rival's last matches and try to duplicate best tactics that may work against stronger teams. Is it possible that Dynamo can handle Porto? Porto has 6 points and possible to add 3 points more to guarantee next step in 3 matches. And Kiev another canditate for qualify from this group.Who knows. 3 points from Zagrep not a miracle but might put an idea of why not qualify or try that possibility. This match will be that match to be considered by Dynamo. If match was in Ukraine I would be more confident about my bet. But In Porto's field I am looking for a surprise or a well paying odds for my small coupon. Anyway my bet options: 1- Under 2' date=5 Goals (our local pays @1.70) 2- Half Time Draw/ Full Time Porto (Our local pays @3.60) 3- Half Time Dynamo/Full Time Draw (our local pays @19.00) I should know counter attack power of Dynamo and defense strength. I will be glad if you help clearin my mind. Thank you in advance -
Re: October 22 - October 28 Mates, I would like to ask you for an advise. I have little experience with tennis betting although I follow the game more or less. I need for today a 1.30-1.40 coefficient pick to add up to a combo. As I did not find anything suitable in the football markets, I searched the tennis, and in the end I came up with two alternative options. The first one is picking Serena Williams to beat Li Na by 2-0, and the other one is Azarenka to get the same win vs. Kerber. I am really confused which one to pick up. I am a little more inclined towards Serena, because of her great shape since June, plus the fact that Na Li is sort of more one-directional and less versatile than Kerber in my view, and this sort of players are usually easier opponents for Williams. On the other hand, Azarenka has been outstanding in the last weeks and she is just humiliating her opponents. In this respect, she seems like the one less likely to lose concentration and skip a set. Also Williams took some rest after US Open, and I am not certain how this will affect her. So, which one of the two you would suggest for me?!
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Re: Group D > Oct 24 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Borussia - Real Under 3 goals (Asian Line) @ 1.925 Here I go against the expectations of most people. My reason to take this bet is related to the motivation of both teams. Borussia has a good record of four points, including a draw away from home against probably their main rival for the second place. They are aware that they face Real Madrid - a team with formidable striking power. I don't think that they will jump carelessly into attacking. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has got full house of points so far and plays away from home against a very tough opponent. Having this in mind and knowing how Mourinho approaches away games in tournaments, I see no reason to expect Real Madrid to be too exposed either. I think that both teams will be happy with the draw and it is a very likely outcome. I take the asian line as a precaution, because over 2.5 is not so much higher, but it has significantly more risk.
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Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Porto AH -1 @ 1.95 (bet365) Dynamo's away performance in all competitions has been abysmal this season. In fact, the overall performance of the team has been well below their standards. They lost at home to Metalist during the weekend, they are on a losing streak of four consecutive away games, three of which they lost by a handicap, and overall this season they lost 5 out of 9 away games. It is more interesting that any away game against a top side, Dynamo got trashed - 3-1 and 4-1 in Donetsk, and 4-1 against PSG. Porto, on the other hand, are in a wonderful shape. This team tends to show some cyclical pattern in their performance in Europe, whereas once every two years they tend to shine, and after unconvincing performance in the group stage last year, the current flying start indicates that this is going to be promising year for the dragons. Porto is on a great winning streak at home in their league - they won 14 out of their last 15 home games in Liga Sagres (lol - impressive)! Porto has too much resource in the moment for Dynamo to handle, despite Hulk's departure. In attack, they have a new shining star - Colombian forward Jackson Martinez, who together with established goal-scorers like his countryman Jackson Martinez and Varela form a formidable threat. Pay also special attention to young Ghanaian winger Atsu - amazingly skillful player and a huge pain for defenders, although he usually plays as a substitute. The midfield of Porto is also a highest class - directed by maestro Joao Moutinho, assisted by Argentinian veteran Lucio Gonzalez and Belgian international Defour. Additionally, Porto should be much fresher than their opponents - they played on Sunday against amateur team for the Portuguese cup, so practically their last fixture was before the international break. While Dynamo in the same time had heavy and exhausting derby which they lost to Metalist. The only risk I see here is that Dynamo will be very closed as they will be happy with a draw. However, I don't think that they could withstand Porto for a long time, given the potency of the dragon's attack and the great mobility and skill of their midfield. This should be a comfortable 2 or 3 to nil win for the host team.
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Re: Group G > Oct 23 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)
It is unreal how Barcelona just refuses to play any sort of direct football. Not a single time for the whole game I saw a Barca winger trying to charge the full-backs of Celtic - they would just bring the ball back to the center over and over again. No crosses, no shooting, just passes and passes. Get the feeling that if other teams weren't so afraid of them and managed to close them down, Barcelona can have tremendous problems. Celtic anyway totally deserved a point.Never in doubt! Fair play to Celtic, I didn't think they had that performance in them. Probably deserved a draw based on effort and organisation alone. Barca were frustrating to watch. They look like they need someone like Llorente (or Berbatov or even Peter Crouch!) to give them a different option, they have nothing in the air at all and all those corners basically go to waste as they end up with the ball on the halfway line. It may be against their ethos but a strong, skilful forward who can hold the ball up & win headers may free up some space for Messi, Iniesta et al. -
Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Fedar' date=' you're assuming this was the case, when it should be much easier to treat it as an honest mistake :) :ok[/quote'] Jase, I never said it was dishonest mistake and I never even suggested that the guy tried to purportedly delude others. All I am saying is that such mistakes might seriously put people into the wrong direction - for instance, when I first saw this, I was about to give up my bet on Valencia - who will bet for a team that got just two days rest before important CL game?!
Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Minyor are without their four best players who boycotted the game! They are playing poor even with them, so imagine the level without them. Plus, this fixture very strangely resembles the home game of Minyor versus Ludogorets in spring - when the hosts surprisingly decided that they will protest against the Football Union by playing only with junior squad. In fact, their "protest" was only for that game, which made most football observers believe this was just a "subtle" way to give away the game. I have many reasons to think that this is what is going to happen again in Sunday against Levski. Levski should get an easy one with a handicap here.