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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August

    Those stats don't really tell the full story, a lot of those Helsingborg efforts were tame, and Forster made 3 good saves. Apart from the end of the 1st half, Celtic the game. They hit the bar twice and it could have been a bigger lead.
    That's exactly what I was going to say! I see punters discussing here match stats as a serious indicator of which was better, and I don't think this is very good idea. For instance, I watched Maribor - Dinamo Zagreb, and Maribor were trying shooting from every position and distance. If you look at the stats, I guess you will get the impression that Maribor totally outplayed them. In fact, most of the shots were totally ridiculous attempts and caused absolutely no threat. Dinamo rarely attacked and had little posssession, but most of their attacks were very dangerous, even if they did not finish with a shot. To sum it up - those stats rarely tell the true story.
  2. Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August A brief recapitulation: Maribor - Dinamo 0:1 BTTS Not a bad pick, Maribor had decent chances and a goal was incorrectly disallowed. Anderlecht - AEL 2:0 Anderlecht Clean Sheet Did not watch the game and don't know if AEL had good chances. But I guessed very correctly that Anderlecht will have difficulties breaking them down and will not manage to score early, which logically took me to reasoning that AEL might not need to attack for most of the game. Pao - Malaga 0:0 Malaga DNB (Void) I have no idea how the game went, but I was positive that the Spaniards won't lose, and given the good price I think it was worth trying for the DNB. My picks for tomorrow are: 1. Fenerbahche - Spartak Moscow Over 2.5 @ 1.80 I was considering taking a straight Fenerbahche win, but hesitated because their league has just started while Spartak have been under way for a long time. I do see many goals here, first because the score in Moscow suggest open game - the Turks need goals and Spartak Moscow are aware that it is very unlikely that they manage to maintain a clean sheet for 90 minutes in Istanbul, so they will have to score at least once. Both teams are very over-ish. Basically all 7 games of Spartak this season have been over (remarkable!). They do fancy scoring goals, but they are also very promiscuous defensively - they managed just one clean sheet and they were trashed by Zenit by 5:0 just few weeks ago. Fenerbahce are also very prone to overs. They have considerable firepower up-front but they also concede a lot. 2. Dinamo Kyiv - Monchengladbach Over 2.5 @ 2.00 At first sight it does not sound very logical as both teams are under-ish. However, following a 3:1 home defeat, Borussia have no other choice but to take substantial risks. While Dinamo is not particularly high-scoring at home, they usually struggle with teams who park the bus in the Ukrainian league. Borussia certainly won't do that and the Germans will leave themselves exposed for Dinamo's quick attacks. I think Dinamo will score at least two goals here, maybe more. Borussia also knows how to find the net, so I smell that they won't let their hosts with a clean sheet. 3. Lille - Copenhagen Under 2.5 @ 1.90 A classical case of a second-leg tie, where the first one finished with a small but very convenient 1:0 home victory. Copenhagen will stay back, knowing that their hosts will need to score twice to kick them out before extra time. Lille on the other hand will not go "va bank" from the beginning as they are aware that just one goal will make the tie equal. When you add to this the fact that both teams are under-ish, especially Lille at home, it looks like a good bet.

  3. Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August

    Cluj-Basel should be an overish game as Basel needs to score at least 2 goals to have any chance of qualifying for the group stages at all. They wasted a lot of chances at their home tie against Cluj while Cluj was lucky to have used their few chances to score. With the fact that Basel has to attack' date=' I see Cluj scoring as well here so over 2.5 and both to score seem nice to me.[/quote'] Be careful with this one. I know it looks very overish at first sight, but have in mind that it is the return leg of the final qualification round of CL. I am pretty sure that Cluj will not focus on attacks but rather on disrupting Basel's attacking. They know the Swiss need whole 2 goals, so there is no point for the Romanians to try hard forward. And Cluj are really good when they have to defend. I myself won't go for overs in a game when one of the two teams does not really need to score and the exactly same team is the host and is known for good defense. Especially at the current price for overs.
  4. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 28-30

    APOEL v Neftchi Thursday 30th August 18.00 According to the stats, Netchi dominated the first leg in Baku. Their odds seem quite long here at 12.0. On the other hand, APOEL have an excellent home record in Europe, and Neftchi a very poor away record, so this backing Neftchi feels like a long-shot. How much weight should we give the first leg stats, and how much to their previous records? http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/season=2013/matches/round=2000355/match=2009830/index.html http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/08/30/europe/uefa-cup/apoel-nicosia/fk-neftchi/1370869/
    One does not contradict the other. Neftchi could have been the better team in the first game, but still be worse than APOEL and terrible away from home. I don't think the price is incorrect. As regards Red Star, maybe they are a bit too long. They have good defense and 0:0 is a very tricky score.
  5. Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August First, my thoughts on tonight's games. 1. Anderlecht - AEL Anderlecht Clean Sheet @ 1.9 (bet365) I expect AEL to be very solid defensively (no surprise) and not to commit much to attacking. I think that the Belgians will have difficulties breaking them down and I don't see them scoring an early goal. The longer the score is 0:0, the less frequently AEL will cross the midfield. If the Belgians manage to take the lead, I don't expect them to push a lot for a second goal - they know AEL ain't Ekranas, the Cypriots are dangerous, and this is the final step before CL - so they will be careful and more than happy with a goal lead. 2. Maribor - Dinamo BTTS @ 1.80 Unlike the Anderlecht-AEL game, which finished with the same result, I expect here a much more open game from both sides. Both Dinamo and Maribor have been very prolific in their leagues. The Zagreb teams scores a lot, but they rarely manage to escape with a clean sheet. I don't fancy them to get one tonight either, especially given the good attacking strength of Maribor. However, Dinamo are the favorite to qualify for the second leg for me, so if they concede a goal, this definitely means they must score at least once. And I think they are more than capable of doing this with ease. 3. Pao - Malaga Malaga DNB 2.0 Surprised to see such a big price for the definitely better team among the two. Indeed, they don't need to win to qualify. However, Pao needs to score at least 2 goals to have any chance, which means that the Greeks must attack and must take a risk. I think that more classy Spanish side will be very comfortable in such circumstances when they can exploit empty space in Pao's defense. I am confident Malaga won't lose and I see quite a good probability of them winning in Athens. The other games of tonight are certainly no-bet for me and they offer no value in my opinion.

  6. Re: Liverpool v Man City > Sun 26 August I am confident Pool won't be losing this game. And I think it is good likelihood that they manage to win. The Scousers might not be a confident home team but only when they play against teams outside the top 5. They are actually quite good and efficient at Anfield when they face opposition of highest class. I won't be looking back in time too further, but only in the past two years I immediately recall a number of spectacular home performances of Pool in such circumstances, and this years haven't been the best for the team, the least to say. Just to name a few: 3:1 vs. United, 3:0 vs. City (totally owned them), 2:0 vs. Chelsea (Torres scored twice), 4:1 vs. Chelsea...Actually, against top teams at home, Pool has been poor only against Tottenham, which turns out to be something like a black cat for them in recent years. Against this team of City (managed by Mancini and financed by the Arabs), Liverpool did not lose a single time at home, and since I think I watched all of these games, I remember Liverpool being the better and dominating even the ones that finished with a draw. Let's have a look at City now. First, their best player, in my opinion - Aguero, is out. I think it is a huge-huge blow for them. He is the most creative man up-front and he is actually the best goal-scorer because he so rarely misses good chances (unlike Dzeko and Tevez). But he is also very good not only in finishing but also in play-building with his vision, technical skills and collective play. I think 20% of City's power is diminished when Aguero is not there. Second, knowing Mancini's mentality, I think he will be more than happy with the draw. If the score is level by, say, 60th minute, I am sure that City will step back and Liverpool will be the team committed forward. It is just so typical of Mancini. Third, City has been poor away from home against teams that pack the midfield densely and employ lots of physical pressure - like Swansea, Stoke, Everton, Sunderland and.....Liverpool. They feel way more comfortable when they visit more open-up teams that emphasis more on the attack rather than the midfield, like Man United and Tottenham. I think that a small handicap which covers for the draw is a good and safe option, but also aiming at Liverpool's win is worthy at this huge price. Liverpool 0,+0.5AH - Bet365 - 1.825 Liverpool 3.15

  7. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 Time for recapitulation: 1. Harts - Liverpool Liverpool Goals: Under 1.5 @ 2.00 (bet365) A very solid and easy call! Pool scored late through own goal. I game went exactly the way I predicted. Should have been braver and gone also for under 1.5 total and Pool clean sheet. 2. Anji - AZ Anzie Clean Sheet @ 2.62 (Bet365) The call of the evening for me. Amazing value - still can't believe bookies can misprice a game so much. AZ were totally dominated, had very little possession and few attempts. 3. PAOK - Rapid PAOK @ 1.72 Bet was won, but I am not sure it was a good one. I expected a much easier win for the Greeks, and it obviously wasn't the case. 4. Vaslui - Inter Vaslui or Draw @ 2.00 Bad pick and bad reasoning - I read and watch reviews of the game and it seems that it was like an easy walk for Inter. 5. AIK - CSKA Moscow Goal/Goal @ 2.00 Bet lost, but still I am not sure it was a bad one. I think that if CSKA scored a bit earlier, the bet could have been a winner. 6. Dinamo Bucuresti - Metalist Kharkiv Metalist @ 2.50 Good pick at very good price. I expect Metalist to be very profitable for me this season. 7. Atletik Bilbao - HJK HJK +2 (Asian) @ 1.925 and HJK to score @ 2.10 No need to comment - a terrible selection. It was like betting against a lightly wounded bear - Bilbao were furious to get back their self-confidence through devastating the poor Finns. 8. Slask - Hannover Hannover -1 (Asian) @ 2.05 Bet won, but not quite as easy as expected. Definitely should have gone for overs as a more secure option - all results of Slask were pointing in this direction. On overall, 5 won, 3 lost. However, the winning selections were with higher prices (mainly thanks to Anji and Metalist), so I get a good profit.

  8. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23

    I think Atletik Bilbao will completely overwhelm HJK and the match is a home banker. I'm not sure scoring a goal against a poor Celtic side and being well organised is enough to be confident that the Finns will upset the Basque side . I agree Bilbao have been a bit rusty so far but it is one thing losing to Betis in a very competive LaLiga to playing a side ranked well below the Spaniards in European terms. A big leap of faith indeed. I have placed Bilbao in a treble along with Maritmo and PSV (Skybet treble odds 1.9) and this is the leg I'm most confident of.
    You were totally right, mate. I actually mentioned in my post that if Atletik does not play another crappy game as the ones vs. Slaven, they might strongly bounce back by winning big. I was stupid enough to pick the first option. :) In fact, HJK are not a bad team. Probably if they faced Atletik a few weeks earlier, I would have got it right. But now, the Basques were really furious after a series of disappointments and they wanted to send a message. Lesson: if a really classy side has been poor lately and now faces a weaker opposition, it is a smart idea to expect that the classy side will try to strongly bounce back and score a lot of goals.
  9. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 CL has been very poor in terms of betting opportunities this week, but in contrast, League Europe looks very tempting and exciting. I agree with some of the suggestions, so I won't repeat them, and just share my other picks for today: 1. Harts - Liverpool Liverpool Goals: Under 1.5 @ 2.00 (bet365) Liverpool are resting they key players in view of the derby with City. Even with all their star-players, Liverpool would have difficulties scoring twice against the fighting Scotsmen. The team has been a disaster in both their official away games - vs. Gomel and WBA. I am confident that Liverpool will be more than happy to score once and won't discard even a goal-less draw. Hearts will also be quite happy not conceding and I don't expect them to open up a lot. 2. Anji - AZ Anzie Clean Sheet @ 2.62 (Bet365) Unbelievable odds against a team which did not concede in any of their four European games so far and a team which is famous for playing very tight at home and achieving many home clean sheets in Russian premier league. I agree that AZ are dangerous and they have quality in the attack, but 2.62 is ridiculously high. There's at least 50% chance that Anzie do not concede (and I think it is actually higher chance) and 2.62 is not representative. 3. PAOK - Rapid PAOK @ 1.72 I know that it is a bit tricky because the odds are below evens and PAOK, unlike Rapid, haven't started their league yet. But I feel that the Greeks are very strong favorite here, at least stronger than 1.72 suggests. PAOK rarely gets the chance to try for CL, but they play regularly and successfully in EL. They are particularly famous for their home performance at their fortress - Toumba Stadium, in front of their fanatic crowd. They smashed with ease last round strong Israeli Bnei Jehuda - a team which in my opinion is not weaker than Rapid. The weather is going to be very hot in Solun and this won't favor the Austrians. Rapid, as most Austrian teams in recent years, are very vulnerable in Europe and rarely impress. Last round they were beaten away by very mediocre Serbian Vojvodina by 2:0. PAOK is several classes above Vojvodina in terms of quality, finance, league, euro experience and fans. I really see Rapid losing by several goal margin here, but think 1.72 for clear PAOK's win is good enough. 4. Vaslui - Inter Vaslui or Draw @ 2.00 I would disagree with the opinion of the fellow-punter above. I see no point of comparison between this game and the one in Split against Hajduk. Vaslui is currently stronger team than Hajduk and has much better European record. I don't think also that Inter were pushing very much in Split for the victory, they just outsmarted their unexperienced opposition. I would definitely not support an Italian team like Inter to win a first-leg away game in preliminary round of second-class tournament, especially given that Inter had just played two matches. It is very likely that Inter won't put much effort, be happy with the draw, and have some motivational issues. On the other hand, for Vaslui this is going to be a BIG game and I am confident that their motivation will be sky-high. The team is good quality and the score in the second-leg against Fenerbahce is a little misleading. Vaslui also knows how to defend well, especially at home, as is not new to playing against such big names. 5. AIK - CSKA Moscow Goal/Goal @ 2.00 This bet is based mainly on my observation of CSKA. They score a lot and I am confident they won't miss to nick at least one goal in Sweden. But on the other hand, their defense has been a real mess this summer. They concede a lot and make plenty of easy and uncalled for mistakes. My worry here is that AIK tend to play tight and "under" at home. However, I don't see them withholding clean-sheet against the powerful Moscow attack. Hence, they will have to attack themselves in front of their own fans, I see them manage to exploit CSKA's defensive weaknesses. 6. Dinamo Bucuresti - Metalist Kharkiv Metalist @ 2.50 I am not so confident about this one, but I fancy the Ukrainians to steal the victory at this attractive price. I like the Ukrainian league and I have observed that Metalist, while being a bit behind dominant Dynamo Kyiv and Shakhtar, are probably the team which plays the most attractive football in the whole league. Their core is composed of Brazilian players and they really play some eye-catching, fast and very technical football. Especially 24-year old Brazilian attacker Taison who is simply incredible player, who I am confident will join some of the big European teams very soon. They have also other very gifted players who know how to put a game in their control - Clayton, Cristaldo, Willian, experienced Vorobey etc. Metalist were incredible last year in Europa League. And pay attention - they were simply rocking in their away games: 4:1 at Malmo, 4:0 at Sochaux, 4:0 at Salzburg, 2:1 at Olympiacos... - a very impressive list of scores. Metalist also performs very well away in their local league. They tend to be enjoying a lot playing with counter-attacks in open spaces, which away games often allow them. I admit I don't know much about Dinamo, but they definitely are on down-ward trend in the last years. They've done nothing special in Europe and now they are not quite competitive even in their local league where they have been consistently lagging behind teams like Cluj, Vaslui and their arch-rival Steaua. 7. Atletik Bilbao - HJK HJK +2 (Asian) @ 1.925 and HJK to score @ 2.10 Bilbao have been terrible against poor Slaven Koprivnica. They conceded goals in both games, lost the away tie and let their mid-table Croatian opponent have too many good scoring chances. It is clear that some negative processes are taking place in the Basque team. There are both some motivational issues and personal problems in the dressing room. A team of this class and quality cannot play like that against Slaven. They have also been terrible against Betis. Of course, there is always a chance that they might bounce back and crush HJK, but i think it is less likely. I wathced HJK in Glasgow and liked the brave Finns. They are good and tight in defense, and they did not hesitate to attack every time they could. They play very simple but efficient football. They pass quick and try to reach the opponents penalty area with few qiuick passes. HJK are, as expected, dangerous with headers and from set-pieces. 8. Slask - Hannover Hannover -1 (Asian) @ 2.05 Slask is simply a very poor Polish side who were extremely lucky to win the championship last season. They have absolutely nothing to offer and were easily humiliated in almost all their European games this summer. They only managed to eliminate very poor outsiders from Montenegran Buducnost, but they lost against them at home. Actually, Slask lost all three of their home European games this summer, two of which by more than one goal margin. Hannover is a class above the Poles, there's no doubt about it. My only worry is about their lack of competitive football and possible motivational issues they might face. But in the end, I think they will get the victory in Wroclaw even without giving their best effort.

  10. Re: Champions League Qualifiers > August 21-22 My bet for tonight is a little bit against the odds: AEL - Anderlecht Over 2.5 @ 2.65 (bet365) It is mainly the huge price that attracts me here. We have been talking more than enough about AEL's defense in this thread, so no need repeating. Obviously the under is more likely outcome here, however, I don't think that overs are so unlikely as the odds suggest. Anderlecht has more than enough fire-power up-front and they rarely leave their opponents with clean sheets. In my opinion, if Anderlecht gets a goal before half-time, then the overs might become very likely as AEL opens-up and Anderlecht themselves are not impeccable in defense. Of course, we should have in mind that this bet is a bit speculative as it picks an event which is more likely not to happen. But as I said, i think it is much more likely to happen than the odds suggest, so I go for it.

  11. Re: Champions League Qualifiers > August 21-22

    4pts Malaga to beat Panathinaikos 3/4 Blue Square ......With their season up and running Malaga are likely to have a bit more of a competitive edge about them and won’t be as rusty as the Greek side
    Actually the season in Spain just started and in reality Malaga has played less official games than Panathinaikos which already faced twice Scottish Motherwell.
  12. Re: Man City v Southampton Saturday 18th August 2012 I agree with your opinions guys and I want so mention something that goes in line with what was just said. Big teams tend to find the opposition's net very easily in the first month or two of the season. And this is true not only for Premiership, but also for most of the other major leagues. August and September are the two months of the year where the players of these big teams are most fresh and hungry for football and goals, and the time when they don't really need to spare effort and to divide it across different tournaments. August and September are the normally the months when nearly all top players are fit. It is also the times when managers of top teams are much more prone to taking more risks and opening up more - something which is important when we speak about generally very risk-averse manager like Mancini. This is also the time when lower class opposition hasn't yet found the means to prevent the new tactical dimensions brought to top teams over the summer break. Having said that, I think it is worth exploring handicaps for City in the first 7-8 games, especially when they play at home.

  13. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Botev - Slavia 3:0 FT (1:0 HT) Botev @ 1.57 Botev -1.5 @ 2.20 Very easy and comfortable win on both bets as predicted. Botev also missed a penalty and dominated entirely possession and Slavia barely threatened their goal. Cherno More - Ludogorets 0:3 FT (0:0) Under 2.5 @ 1.90 So unlucky and misfortunate! The game was 0:0 after one hour of play with very few chances for either teams, when the home team got a red card out of the blue and a surprising goal several minutes later. This was very unexpected and shocking for them and they conceded two more, just enough to ruin my bet. Nevertheless, I am positive that it was a good pick at this price and I would have eagerly made this bet again if I had the chance.

  14. The new season is just starting. It is usually not advisory to bet a lot in the first one or two rounds, but still I spot several good opportunities. Botev - Slavia Botev @ 1.57 (betfair) Botev -1.5 @ 2.20 (bet365) The pick of this round for me. Botev just climbed up to A PFG from the second-tier of Bulgarian football, but they are not newbies here, in reality Botev is among the most popular and most successful teams in the country. They went bankrupt three years ago and had to go to the amateur level, like Glasgow Rangers. However, they made quick and impressive revival - they got a new owner - one of the most powerful and rich bankers in the country, and they easily made their way back to the Premier League of the country. Last year, a team who just qualified from second division - Ludogorets Razgrad, managed to win both the title and the national cup. This season, another freshly promoted team - Botev Plovdiv, is expected to compete at least for European places, and according to some analysts, the team can even aim at the title. Right now, the mood and ethnusiasm at Botev Plovdiv's ranks is at hgihest point for the last 20 - 30 years. The stadium will entirely packed long before kick-off and the atmosphere will be smoking hot, as Botev fans are known to be maybe the most passionate in the country. This is their first game in the elite since more than two years and about ten days ago they gathered 10,000 people for a friendly. Botev upgraded a lot over the summer - they were very active on the transfer market, got many new quality signings, and were very impressive in their friendlies. As to Slavia, they will once again be a mid-table team, fighting for nothing. I don't see them throwing a decent fight against Botev and expct them to be both outclassed by the opponent and intimidated by the atmosphere at the stadium. I take both straight Botev win and -1.5 handicap, since I am certain about Botev's victory, but if they are very unlucky in front of goal, they might miss the handicap. Cherno More - Ludogorets Under 2.5 @ 1.90 I am surprised to see such big price on the unders, given that Cherno More is the most under-ish team in the country, especially when they play at home against top-class teams. I often call them "Bulgarian Stoke City" for the way they approach such games - very physical and tight defense, heavy tackling, hoofing the ball up-front. In addition, the pitch condition of their stadium miraculously becomes awful when they have to face some top team. Of course, Ludogorets is stronger and I think they are in a very good shape now. I think they will manage to grab the victory, but the price is way too short, especially given that Cherno More can always still a draw at home against any of the best teams in the league. I think unders are very likely here, definitely much more likely than 50% and than what the odds suggest.

  15. Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

    1. Omonia will be without key midfielder Efrem and key defender Karipidis (captain). Red Star is not good team, but have nothing to lose tonight. I like their "away games" which suit them, with fast counter attacks through Lazovic, Milunovic and Kasalica. The weather will be humid, but it won't disturb the Serbs (about 35 degrees here in recent days). In the stands will be about 15,000 fans, but Red Star will have the support of their and Olympiakos fans. 2. APOEL will be without key striker Ailton. And they come from 40 to 20 degrees, on the artificial pitch. 5. Mura will play in Maribor, not Lendava, like @liki said. Also home team have Horvat (key mf) and Fajic (topscorer) returns for this game. On the other hand, Arsenal will be without Florescu (reg mf) and regular defenders Khomin & Rafael. Their president has promised 100 thousand dollars for each scored goal in Maribor. It is clear that I have no high confidence in selected predictions at this time, but won't go the opposite. @HastGill good luck mate, it would be a monthly stake for me...
    Thanks for the update, mate, but I don't think it changes much the situation. One or two players missing is nothing special - we ain't talking about Messi and Cristiano here. Moving from Lendava to Maribor won't make Mura suddenly open-up and leave their "park-the-bus" tactics, and I believe they can actually receive better support from the stands there. Artifical pitch could make some difference, maybe it has played some role in Aalesund's good home form. But it still doesn't change some facts like APOEL being of higher class and more experience.
  16. Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August So, what we have for tomorrow. First thing I noticed and I really don't enjoy is that I had looks at the odds several hours ago and I double-check them now, and I see some of them have fallen considerably over the last two hours. In particular -Omonia Nicosia's win. Omonia was priced at 2.05 two hours ago at bet365, now it is just 1.75. I have a feeling that the prices might adjust back within one or two hours before the games, so maybe it is a good idea to place the bets immediately before the start. 1. Omonia Nicosia - Red Star Belgrade Omonia @ 1.87 (betfair) I will stick with supporting Cypriotic teams which has beena very successful strategy this summer. Omonia is one of the best teams in country and the most popular one (known as the team of the people in Cyprus). They are very successful in the domestic league but they have been really unlucky in Europe so far, where they lag behind their local rivals APOEL and Anorthosis. I feel that Omonia's time to impress in Europe has come and it coincides with the great rise of Cypriotic football. The stadium at Nicosia will be over-crowded and boiling with a latin-american atmosphere (Omonia's fans are famous for being the best, most vocal and colorful supporters in the country). I don't know much details about Omonia's team, but they seem to be very solid defensively, as any other top Cyprus team, and they have some quality foreign players. Red Star, despite their great history, is very inconsistent team in a very deep and long-lasting crisis. They continuously fail in Europe in the last years and they cannot compete also in their domestic scene. From what I've seen in the Serbian league, the only players to impress in Red Star's ranks are Brazilians Cadu and Evandro, and young forward Filip Kasalica. "1-6" to Rennes, "2-3" to Slovan, "2-4" to Slavia Prague, two very dfficult and dramatic wins against outsiders Dinamo Tbilisi and Naftan....these results don't impress, the least to say.... 2. Aalesund - APOEL [email protected] (betfair) A mediocre Norwegian team (10th currently), best team in Cyprus and 1/4 finalist in CL, a tie which has not been decided yet....Well, 2.24 seems like a great deal given these circumstances. I think there is no doubt about the class gap between the two sides. I agree that Aalesund seems like a very tough team at home - 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, including great home victories vs. AZ Alkmaar, Elfsborg (4:0) and Ferencvaros. And maybe, if APOEL had won with big margin in Cyprus, I would have taken Aalesund. But APOEL is a very smart team, extremely solid defensively and knowing well how to take their chances up-front. And APOEL realize that 2:1 is a very soft and risky lead, so they will try to score at least once. I think that their better technical ability and their impeccable defense will be the key to the outcome in this game. Weather won't be much of a factor here (I know we exploited this a lot when Cyprus teams were hosting), because Scandinavian teams could draw advantage from weather conditions in the later months of the year, not in summer, unlike the Cyprus teams. 3. Anorthosis - Dila Gori Anorthosis to Win to Nil @ 2.00 (betfair) I know I am over-exploiting those Cyprus bets, but since they are working I see no reason not to try another one. "1-0" victory to Anorthosis in Georgia last week, where they seemed to haven't let many chances for their hosts to score (at least the video on youtube shows so). I don't see the situation being any better for the Georgians in the Subsaharn hot Cyrpus weather, at the full stadium, against a far superior team. 4. Aktobe - Genk Under 2.5 @ 1.95 (bet365) Aktobe has been very, very solid at home in Europe. They have only one home loss in Europe (0:2 to Werder Bremen). 11 out of their 13 home games in Europe have been "Under 2.5" (impressive). Actually, one of the only two "overs" was two weeks ago against Milsami Moldavia - 3:0. Their fans usually create good atmosphere in home games in Europe and leave only few empty seats. 2:1 to Genk in the first game will also in my opinion contribute to a low-scoring and tactical game. 5. Mura - Arsenal Kyiv Under 2.5 @ 2.20 (betfair) This pick is not based on stats, but entirely on my impressions from the four euro matches of Mura that I watched this summer, and from the result in the first game. Mura without any doubt will park the bus as they did in all their other games in Europe. 3:0 administrative defeat in the first game, will make Arsenal very nervous and as the clock passes by the feeling of anxiety in Ukrainians' ranks will rise. The stadium where the game will take place (Mura don't play in Europe at their home town, but in Lendava) is small, but Mura gets relatively good support from the stands. The Slovenians are also smart and have full equipment of tricks for teasing their opponent and time-wasting.

  17. Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

    Mura - Arsenal' date=' Arsenal goals over 1,5 with Marathonbet 1,68Arsenal won last gme 3-0, but they have technical defeat because they had player on the field, who was disqalified before. So they have to score 3 or more goals away. I know well this team, in the ukr champ they sow nice attacking team and it is no problem for them to score 2 goals away with slovenian team. Good luck.[/quote'] Be careful with this one. I watched basically all of Mura's games before Arsenal, because they played in second round against my team. And I must say - those Slovenians really know how to PARK THE BUS WELL. That's basically what they do - they have tall and physical defenders and they try to pack the area in front of their goal with as many people as possible. The pitch in Lendava where they play in Europe is not in perfect condition as well and it limits supposed technical superiority of Arsenal. Now that Mura has unexpeced 3-goal advantage I doubt they will leave their half of the pitch more than just few times. I myself won't take this bet at such price.
  18. Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 7-8 August My thoughts on some of tonight' games..... 1. Pao - Motherwell Pao AH -1.5 @ 2.00 I back the opinions shared so far on this game. Had a bet on the first match and watched it. Pao won with ease and no real effort. The Greeks have no need to rest players or save effort because they have no other games in hand as the league hasn't started. Actually, this is going to be their first game in front of their own crowd this season and I expect the mood to be high and the hosts to try to please their fans with good performance and many goals. Weather is definitely going to be a factor here. These days it has been Subsaharan hot here on the Balkans, and in Athens it is usually much worse. Daily temperatures there are above 40 degr. Celcius, matched with big humidity. I suppose most of Motherwell players have never in their life played in such condition, and quite a few of them may have never experienced such temperatures in their whole life. I won't be surprised if Pao wins with even bigger margin, but this price is good enough anyway. Also not a bad advice is to try some live betting here, because it is likely that Pao will start the game slowly and speed up later, which might bring up their price. 2. Slovan Liberec - Cluj Cluj or Draw @ 1.72 I am surprised to see such high price for "win or draw" for a favorite in the tie, despite playing away from home. Cluj is more experienced and better team as a whole. Their record in Europe is way better than Slovan's. The record of Romanian teams is also better than that of Czech counterparts, and Slovan Liberec is not among the most prominent Czech teams in the last years (Sparta, Slavia, Viktoria). The hosts had very difficult game against Shakhtar Karagandy last round and they barely survived. Cluj is completely different level than the Kazakshtan team. The Romanians also got a very convenient 1:0 win, so tonight they will play their favorite game - "defend, wait, and punish mistakes on the counter-attack". 3. Dudelange - Maribor Maribor AH-1 @ 2.150 I know Dudelange played great vs. RB and I know Maribor's motivation might seem questionable. However, I have an observation that while bigger and more experienced teams tend to underestimate meaningless second-leg games, teams with less experience and reputation in Europe approach those games differently. Those teams try to grab every possible victory, maybe as a way to improve their coefficients and build-up more confidence. As a matter of fact, last round Maribor was in a similar position - they had already finished the tie at home against Jeleznicar Sarajevo (much stronger than Dudelange), but nevertheless, they took seriously the return match and won again. Another Slovenian team - Olimpija Lubljana a few weeks ago was also in similar position in Europe League after they defeated a Luxembourg side 3:0 at home, but despite that, they were very convincing in the return game as well and won with a big margin. 4. Helsinborg - Slask Helsinborg @ 1.8 I firmly back the tip of tipster H1. Swedish teams are famous for being way stronger at home than abroad, and Helsinborg still won easily as a guest in Poland. If they played Legia or Wisla, I would have thought twice, but Slask is just an opportunity participant in this tournament and I doubt that we'll be seeing them soon in CL. I suppose Slask's confidence will be at their low and they will be just seeing this off as soon as possible.

  19. Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 7-8 August

    Feyenoord v Dynamo Kiev 2.80 Dynamo Win I'm from Holland but I would put my money on Dynamo Kiev. Feyenoord is a talented side, but as last weeks game showed, it's little boys vs experienced pro's. Feyenoord has lost 4 of their 5 best players with Vlaar, El Ahmadi (Aston Villa), Bakkal (Dinamo Moscow) and John Guidetti (Man City). These players were the heart of Feyenoord last season, and they are replaced by inexperienced younsters who hardly played any European match. Feyenoord should've conceded a lot more goals last week in the second half after Dynamo speeded up the tempo but goalkeeper Mulder saved them. This time Feyenoord has to attack in order to produce a goal, which will most likely be punished by Dynamo Kiev. The Feyenoord forwards are pretty quick, but not real goal scorers. Their main goal scorer was Guidetti last year with 20 or 22 goals, and he hasn't been replaced yet. Overall, I think 2.80 is a real good value for a Dynamo Kiev victory
    Cheers, AZ! Hope you share your thoughts about Eredivisie with us, as well.
  20. Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    For anyone without accounts for betting' date=' use matched betting to gain £7k then arbing till all acounts closed limited etc. Earns a lot in short term so well worth it. Wish I knew about it before opened accounts :S[/quote'] I don't get what you are trying to say here. Why exactly 7K and not any other random number? How do you expect to do 7K through matched betting when the usual free bet promotions are around 20-40 pounds worth and take place once every few weeks? It could take years before you can make those 7K through matched betting.
  21. Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 7 August - 8 August

    I wouldn't even touch the Anderlecht game, this has home win written all over it.
    I wouldn't recommend going for a home win here, despite that Anderlecht's motivation will be close to zero. They are still much better and could still win even with many substitute players on and slow tempo. My advise for this game is either to be skipped or to try the unders. What looks certain is that both teams won't be playing in their fastest mode. If you couple this factor with the supposedly smaller pitch in not best condition which is often seen in the Baltics, I definitely don't see many chances on goals here. As to Ekranas, I think that after the humiliating defeat in the first leg, they will be more than happy not to concede a lot and will be much more looking after their defense. I expect that also overs will be overpriced as a consequence of the flood of goals in the first game, which also would make "unders" a very attractive pick.
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