Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Come on, did I say something offensive or what?! Yes, I did not like the fact that you did not bother to check your facts. People can get very deluded in this way by reading tips with wrong facts. And it is an important thing whether they played on Saturday or Sunday. Of course, in the end, it is everybody's personal responsibility how to bet, but it is not nice to read wrong facts in a reputed forum.Well you sound angry or at least upset. It was my mistake; I really thought it was sunday for some reason. But you sure could correct me in more elegant way, couldn't you mister? If PL was a place where mistakes were strictly forbidden, then I would prefer to just be an observer here and wouldn't mind sharing info and thoughts. Thanks. :) -
Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Why is it time for BATE to be dealt with? Why does BATE's winning streak must end? It's 11 vs 11 as it was with Lille and Bayern where they were more pragmatic than their opponents. BATE rested the big guns against Slavia Mozyr and still won 2-1. Valencia lost 4/5 games away and I don't see any signs why they should win in Belarus' date=' where it's a very hard place to play.[/quote'] Because let's face the truth - regardless of how much sympathy they gain among neutral football fans with their bravery and courage, they are much weaker team than Valencia which is one of the best teams in probably the best league in the world. The work of manager Goncharenko and his lads is admirable, but we have to open our eyes for the truth - underestimation by opponents and the role of complete outsider plays very important role in BATE's success. Tonight, they will be deprived by both. Neither will Valencia underestimate them, nor will the Belarussians enjoy the psychological freedom of being considered as a total outsider. It is time BATE get down to earth and I am highly positive that Valencia will do this job. -
Re: Group G > Oct 23 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)
Coral have some strange pricing on this match. Highest scoring half' date=' they are odds on first half, which is as big as 3.6 with Stan James. And they go 3.1 about 2nd half, generally odds on. Looks like they may have the markets back to front!?! Probably call palpable error.[/quote'] I guess they assume that if Barca finishes their job quickly they will slow down in the second half. However, I think that pg_yid's bet is a good suggestion. Usually Barca starts very slow in games at Nou Camp against weaker teams. In my observations, they would speed up in the end of the first half and for most of the second half. Also, Celtic might as well contribute to his bet, and it is more likely that if they score, they will get the goal in the second half. This is because Celtic would start cautiously for sure, however, once Barca are in front, they will go more bravely forward. -
Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Valencia did not play on Sunday! The game vs Bilbao was on Saturday. Please, check your info b4 making an argument.BATE had their league game last thursday and won 2-1, while Valencia played this sunday and needed 2 late goals to win 3-2. Valencia's away form in ECL isn't that great. I wouldn't dare putting my money on them against an on-fire and well-rested home side. Just FYI.. -
Re: Group E > Oct 23 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
You are right about Juve. This price is a joke and Nordseeland could upset at least one of the big teams in the group. Acutally, Juve don't lack creativity. Their problem is scoring. I've watched so many of their games lately where they totally dominated and created like 15 great chances but managed to get a difficult victory by 1-2 to 0.Shakhtar are creating too many chances and there is a good probability that they will score against Chelsea. We can say the same about Chelsea' date=' so I think that [b']BTS@1,8 is the best option. Juve is too short and knowing their solid, but not that creative play, I suppose that they will have problems breaking this Nordsjeland side away from home. Remember that FCN was able to hold Shakhtar at the Donbas Arena for 44 minutes. I seriously doubt that Juve can create more chances in Denmark than Shakhtar in Ukraine against FCN. Also, last year in the domestic league, Juve very often broke the opponent in the second half. First Half Draw @2,4 (at local) -
Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I take immediately Valencia here before the price goes down. It is time for BATE to get dealt with. There should not be a glimpse of underestimation by Valencia after the game with Bayern, and underestimation has been very important weapon for BATE. They just have to go for the win, otherwise their passing the group will be under big question and they cannot afford not to qualify. Valencia is not convincing away in Primera, but this game is very special and BATE is weaker than most Primera teams. I think Valencia should be comfortable here and get something like a 2:0 win.
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Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Colombia-Cameroon 3:0 FT Colombia indeed missed few key players, but Cameroon practically came with a second-choice team. Very easy win and easy money.
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Re: USA V Guatamala world Cup Qualifier 17th October. How low will the draw price go?
Final Score: 4-1 :okJamaica - Antigua and Barbuda Jamaica - 2.5 @ 1.850 (bet365) -
Re: WC - South America Qualification > 12 October
A little satisfaction after the big fiasco in the European qualifiers!1. Paraguay - Peru Paraguay @1.80 :clap 2. Venezuela - Ecuador Goal/Goal @ 2.10 :clap -
Re: WC > European Qualifiers - October 16th
I guess I might be the most precious resource of this forum. Just lay my picks and you gonna get rich!Poland - England England to Win to Nil 3.00 (bet365) Italy - Denmark Denmark AH+1 @ 1.90 :( Spain - France Spain -1.5 @ 2.20 :( Portugal - N.Ireland Portugal -2.5 AH @1.95 :sad -
Re: USA V Guatamala world Cup Qualifier 17th October. How low will the draw price go? Since there is no thread for CONCACAF, I will use this one. Jamaica - Antigua and Barbuda Jamaica - 2.5 @ 1.850 (bet365) Jamaica needs three goal margin in order to keep their hopes of qualifying alive. If the other game in the group finishes with a goal-margin win for either of the teams, then this handicap will see Jamaica through to the next round. Indeed, stats so far in this group do not favor this pick. Antigua did not lose by more than two goals in any of the games, while the biggest victory that Jamaica managed to get was by one goal margin. However, the circumstances around this match are much more specific. So far, Antigua and Barbuda has been relying on two factors: underestimation by the others and the home soil advantage, where their vocal fans and the always being in a terrible condition pitch make it very hard for the bigger teams to break them down. In their two away games, the US stopped giving any effort after the second goal they scored (finished 3-1), while Guatemala struggled to get their late 3-1 victory in the tropical rain that flooded the pitchand made it almost impossible to play. Jamaicans on the other hand have been very economical in the previous games. Tonight, however, their only option is to attack from the start and look desperately for many goals. The stadium in Kingston will be full as usual and Jamaicans surely will not show any sign of underestimation for the opponent because they are urgently looking for goals.
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Re: WC - South America Qualification > 12 October 1. Paraguay - Peru It is a major shock that one of the best teams in the region and regular participant in all Mondiali since 1998is currently at the last place with only 4 points. The team is in a period of transition as two of its key players in the last years - Roke Santa Cruz and Cardozo are no longer favored by the new Uruguayan coach. This move does not turn out to be good so far as the team has lots of difficulties scoring goals. For this game, their attack is expected to be led by Nelson Valdez and Lucas Barrios. Paraguay is 1-1-1 at home in these qualifiers and they lost embarrassingly the last home game vs. supposed outsiders of Venezuela by 0:2. Now they are facing Peru which are 4 points ahead of them and have their star Jefferson Farfan back in the team for this one. Peru are a force at home but they have shocking away record. Their last away victory in WC was in 2004. Before drawing with Bolivia last Friday they had a shocking series of 16 consecutive away defeats in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers!!!!!! Paraguay MUST win this one if they are to keep any chance for qualifying. And Peru with their away record seems like a perfect opponent for them. Similarly to Africa, in South America home advantage is excessively strong factor. I am confident that Paraguay this time won't miss the get the victory.Paraguay @ 1.80 (bet365) 2. Venezuela - Ecuador A very interesting game between two of the pleasant surprises of the qualifiers. Venezuela was for many years the minnow of South America. But over the past 5-6 years they show steady improvement. They feature a generation of very talented players like Rondon (Rubin), Arango (Borussia Monchengladbach), Amorebieta (Bilbao) and Nicholas Fedor (former Getafe star). They achieved two amazing results in this campaign - 1:0 home victory vs. Argentina (the shock of the group so far) and a 1:1 away draw in Colombia. Against them, they have another surprisingly well performing team - Ecuador is third-placed, only one point after the leaders of Argentina. They have respectable record of 5 victories, 1 draw and just 2 defeats. Unfortunately for them, they are missing Man United star Antonio Valencia for this game. It is a very hard match to call. But I feel that both teams should be able to find net at least once. Venezuela at home could not score a goal only once - in the 0-2 defeat vs. Chile. Now they will surely attack fiercely as they need the win since they are behind the line. Ecuador is not very impressive away from home but despite Valencia's missing, they have lots of attacking threat, mainly in the face of Caicedo from Lokomotiv Moscow, who is in a very hot form at the moment, as well as Cristian Benitez who is a record goal-scorer for Ecuador. Ecuador is very dangerous when playing on the break, and at the last game in Montevideo, besides the goal scored by Caicedo, they had several amazing opportunities to punish their hosts and grab the victory. Goal/Goal @ 2.10 (bet 365)
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Re: WC > European Qualifiers - October 16th Poland - England England to Win to Nil 3.00 (bet365) As already mentioned few times - England might be poor at big tournaments, but they are quite good in qualifiers. In the last two qualifiers they failed to win away only twice - both times in the last game of the group, when England had already been through. This is quite respectable performance. Under Roy Hodjson it is reasonable to assume that England will be particularly concentrated in defense as this is the philosophy of Roy. On the other hand Poland is a low-scoring team. During the Euro-12, they did not impress in attacking terms in any of the games. They had few chances to score, and managed to convert only two. I think their main problem is lack of creativity which leaves the good Polish forwards not well supplied. Moreover, they are missing Blazshikovsky (or whatever it is spelled) for this game. Italy - Denmark Denmark AH+1 @ 1.90 Denmark had pretty decent Euro-12 campaign. In fact, this handicap did not lose in any of their three group games against three of the best teams in the world - Germany, Holland and Portugal. The last time the Danes lost by more than one goal margin in a competitive fixture was in 2010 vs. Portugal. They are traveling to Italy with full squad. Italians are not a team that easily cover handicaps, even against much weaker opponents. I expect them to have difficulties breaking down Danish defense and some of Denmark's quick counter-attacks might catch them unprepared. Spain - France Spain -1.5 @ 2.20 This price is just too tasty to skip. Spain lifts considerably their game when facing some of the other big names. Plus, this is their first home game after the Euro and they will surely want to please their fans with the scalp of their neighbors from the north. The only problems with the Spanish squad are in defense where they're missing the Barcelona duo, but given the possession football and the deep pressure Spain is using, this should not be big problem. France is getting worse and worse. The team did not impress at all in Poland and Ukraine during the summer. The defense is sloppy and they are not creating enough chances up-front, despite having many world-class players. Last week they got defeated by Japan at home, which, despite the friendly character, is embarrassing. France will probably be forced by Spain to park the bus and I don't think the French are accommodated to this role and they wouldn't perform it well. Portugal - N.Ireland Portugal -2.5 AH @1.95 N.Ireland is in my view one of the weakest teams in Europe at the moment, probably only superior to the likes of Andorra, Faroe Islands etc. In the last qualifiers they got some embarrassing results - 1:1 vs. Faroe Islands, 1:4 and 1:2 (at home) vs. Estonia. They just failed to win vs. Luxemburg at home. I managed to watch them vs. Russia in Moscow and I must say this is an embarrassingly useless team. The Russians probably played with 30% of their potential (the way you expect them to play vs. the likes of Luxemburg and Malta) and for most of the game they were just slowly passing the ball in midfield, but whenever they would speed up their game and NI defense got totally clueless. Northern Ireland probably crossed into the opposition half of the pitch just few times for the whole game and they could hardly manage to make three consecutive passes and this was against heavily economical and non-pressing Russian team. It was just a behavior of a minnow. I don't think that Portugal will be so benevolent as the Russians. Actually I expect the Portuguese to be very angry and thirsty for goals after their goalless defeat in Moscow. In their last home game they totally outclassed and dominated Azerbaijan when they missed around 15 clear-cut scoring chances, including several times hitting the woodwork and many outstanding saves by the Azeri keeper. I don't think that N.Ireland will be that lucky. Unfortunately for the guests, unlike Russia, Portugal is pressing very fiercely and deeply into the opposition half, which when combined with the very limited technical skills of the northern Irish, would mean that they won't manage to keep possession of the ball for more than just few seconds before losing it just within few meters from their penalty area. Portugal is too rich in terms of attacking options as they are equally dangerous on both flanks and have amazing creativity in midfield and makes use of quick change of position and complex combinations. To make the situation worse for the guests, Portugal has good attacking substitutes who could make the tragedy for the guests more unbearable. And last but not least - Cristiano Ronaldo failed to score a goal in the last two games for his national team. And as you know him, this probably means that now he will be avid to score a few goals in the Irish net. I don't see how Northern Ireland will prevent Portugal from scoring at least three pieces and I find it very unlikely that the guests even manage to create a good goal scoring option. In fact, I would not be surprised if this game gets very ugly for the away side.
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Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Also worth noting - most Brazilian players play in Europe. Even those who play in Brazil have traveled to Europe a week ago, since they had a friendly with Iraq. In contrast, most Japanese players play in the local league and had a long and exhausting travel to Poland.
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Re: International Friendlies > 2012 That obviously changes everything cause these're the best Colombian players. Where did you get this information from by the way?! I was searching the net and could not find anything about line-ups.
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Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Here is the call for the week in the friendlies markets: Colombia - Cameroon, international friendly, Wed. 17 Oct, Barranquilla,Colombia Cameroon are experiencing the worst shock in the last years. They got eliminated from CAN from a small island nation of Cape Verde. Now, just a few days later, they travel far away to Barranquilla to face Colombia. You can imagine how low their mood and motivations is in the moment. On the other hand, Colombians are flying high now. They are performing great in the qualifiers, possess the best striker in the world at the moment plus plenty of other high-quality players, and they are solid as rock on home soil. Despite the friendly character, the stadium in Barranquilla will be full and "burning". I see a very motivated home team beating heavily the guests. Colombia @ 1.50 (bet365) Colombia -1.5 (odds not released yet, expect them to be around 1.90-2.00, based on the straight win price).
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Re: USA V Guatamala world Cup Qualifier 17th October. How low will the draw price go? I am also strongly favoring the draw option. We have many examples in similar situations, the last one being the game from Spanish Segunda Celta Vigo - Cordoba, where in the last round both teams needed just a draw (Celta to qualify directly, Cordoba - to go to the play-offs). The game ended 0-0, without any corners and shots on target. Of course, I am not suggesting any match fixing. It is just that draw is a very likely outcome here, unless some of the teams (most likely USA) takes the lead early. If this game is still 0:0 by half time, then I am pretty confident that neither of the teams will take any non-necessary risks in the second half. It is just that the stake is too huge to risk it - staying in the competition for Brazil 2014. Especially for the US - the team that should be expected to attack more, it would be a major shock to miss the World Cup after being eliminated in an early round. And from my observation of this group, Americans have been very average so far and really lucky to be in the lead. They had disastrous games away in Jamaica and Antigua and Barbuda. Especially the last one, despite the last minute winner, had been a shame for a team who regularly plays among the world top 16. Americans could hardly create any goal chance for the whole second half. The US also drew away in Guatemala - a game I did not watch and cannot comment, but suppose they weren't outstanding in this one either. At home, the States won against outsiders Antigua, and had extremely hard game against Jamaica, where they got a narrow 1-0 victory with only few scoring chances. So, Klinnsman and his players are under huge pressure. I don't feel they are going to take any risks here. Probably would push harder in the first 20-30 minutes to please the home fans, but afterwards I don't see them going too deep forward. Guatemalans, on the other hand, will surely defend, defend and again defend for the whole game. Other good markets that can be considered here are exact score - "0:0", and the corners market, since it is likely there won't be many corner kicks.
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Re: ACN 2013 > qualification > 13 - 14 October McNasara - so impressive today! So far you are getting right all the games, except for your minimum stake game - Ethiopia-Sudan.
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Re: ACN 2013 > qualification > 13 - 14 October It is getting more weird and weird.... BBC Africa (btw - very reliable source, regarding these qualifiers) noted the Cameroon goal and says it is 1:1 already. Bet 365 live stream is 1:0 for Cameroon with very tasty odds for an away goal. Livescore is also 1:0 for the home team. Hmm...are we in the middle of some betting cheat?! P.S. Bet365 took off the live following of the game!
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Re: ACN 2013 > qualification > 13 - 14 October What a situation! We're into first half in Cameroon, and I am wondering what the score is: - BBC Africa says Cape Verde took the lead (they even name the goal-scorer for the guests). - Bet365 live stream says it is 1:0 for Cameroon. - Livescore says it is 0:0. Supposedly, the goal for CApe Verde fell 10 mins ago, while the goal for Cameroon (acc.to Bet365) fell 5 min ago. This is Africa, folks!
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Re: ACN 2013 > qualification > 13 - 14 October
Mate, any thoughts for today?! Seems the games are too close. But Cameroon should cover a -1.5 handi vs. Cape Verde. Home advantage is just way too strong in Africa, especially when some of the big teams is playing against a more average side. Eto'o is back for the Lions, and they are under serious pressure, cause failing to qualify would be considered as a big shock in the country. The stadium will be packed and Cameroon will attack fiercely from the first minute. Also, "Cameroon to win to nil" should be an option, but I did not find this bet yet. Among other games, only Algeria-Libya stands out for me. Algerians are superb at home. And as most North African countries, Algerian crowd always create scary atmosphere for the guests at their home stadium. They won the first leg by 1:0 though the game took place on a neutral venue. My only worry here is that Libya shows surprisingly stable and impressive performance over the last year. They have no star and famous players, but obviously they are a good collective. And as their scores show - they are very solid in the back. However, they must attack in Algiers if they want to qualify. I believe thus they can open up and fall easily in the hands of their hosts.0:1 :clap Mali 4:1 :( Nigeria 6:1 :clap +6 units :cigar:cigar -
Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October
You are talking an utter crap,bro. And not only this "golden" quote, but basically the whole post, and I would say most of your posts here. I don't think that the reason you got banned in another betting forum was your English. Please, shape up, and either start giving reasoned and factual opinion or stop posting this incoherent and irrelevant crap. P.S. Plus, there is no freaking hunger in either Latvia or Lithuania (not even in Estonia).Liechenstein - Latvia 0-0 This is a draw because I dont think Latvia will put up, they are certainly someone that gets Liechenstein out of bed, the hunger there are like the one in Africa. -
Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October My opinion about England - San Marino: I totally agree, based on my viewing and betting experience, that San Marino national team, as well as, their club teams, are by far the weakest in the whole of Europe!!! There is absolutely no doubt about that. Unlike some other minnows like Andorra and especially Faroe Islands, who sometimes park the bus very well, San Marino are totally out of space. Completely disorganized, making unprovoked mistakes, losing nearly any player-to-player duel, and totally unable to read any more professional football combination. The big questions when you bet on a big handicap against them are three: - How motivated the team against them is?! - How productive their forwards are at the moment?! - Do they have good substitutes (don't forget that sometimes when the winners slows down dramatically in the second half, it is the "hungry" substitutes who might save your bet)?! My answers to these questions in the context of this game are: - England are fairly motivated, as far as such low-level opponent allows. They are going to play at home in front of 90 thousand people, and even if you meet a high-school team, such a home crowd is always demanding some effort. A likely minus will be that they are having a game in Poland on Tuesday. But I don't think that this would weigh so much - home crowd pressure plus the fact that England is quite confident in qualifiers should make up for that. - No need to comment on this - England has too great players up-front for SM to handle. Good to mention that Rooney's got some problems in United at the moment, and knowing his character, it is very likely that he will furious to score as many goals as possible to make up for that. - England's got great subs who will definitely want to make some impression. So, surely expecting a few goals from the subs as well. Based on this analysis, I think that chances for England's number of goals are: - 4 goals or less: 2-3 % - 5 goals: 20% - 6 goals: 30% - 7 goals: 30% - more than 7: 17-18%
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Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October
I am pretty sure the score-line will start from minimum of 6 goals for England up to probably double digits...When I look at the list for Friday, I think England may have too much to handle for San Marino. Actually I don't know much about San Marino players, but I guess the likes of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Rooney and Defoe could prove to be a tough nut to crack for the bartenders, waiters, students and accountants. England -7 EH @3.60 5pts England -8 EH @7 5pts with bet365
Group G > Oct 23 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Group G > Oct 23 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)
It is actually very justified. 40/1 will attract some people to bet money on Celtic, indeed small money, but if many people try it with small money, it will at least partially off-set the losses for the bookies due to Barca's win. If the odds for Celtic were lower, it would be just all the money going in Barca's favor, and the bookies suffering heavy blow (their only profits will be supposedly from some bigger handicaps which Barca won't cover). And in case the unthinkable happens and Celtic wins, the bookies will be celebrating despite the 40/1 price - it is just that too much money have gone in Barca's direction.