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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: ACN 2013 > qualification > 8-9 September These African teams are bewildering me. You can hardly ever see an away victory in this continent, unless some of the few top teams is involved (and it is still very hard). They also tend to dislike scoring goals in general and to particularly hate scoring goals in the first half. Also,this tournament definitely needs urgent improvement in its marketing. I have bet several times on this qualifiers, and this is my second bet on DR Congo's game, and in both cases it was so hard to get any information about what is going on the pitch - basically nothing in the whole google. Even in their previous home game, live-score was saying it was 0:0 (meaning that my bet lost), while in reality I realize two hours later that the actual score was 3:0. :-) Like in the 50s. For these reasons, the bookies offer very narrow markets for these games. Otherwise, it would have been very good betting opportunities, because African games seem to be following very strict patterns.

  2. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 I don't think that this match is worth betting on, but if there's any value, it certainly lies with the Serbs - either draw no bet or straight win. I just don't trust the Scottish team - for many years they have been weak, boring, one-dimensional, non-creative, lacking technical skills. They do make up sometimes with their fighting spirit and high motivation, but in most of the cases it is not enough. They are always doubtful to win at home exactly because of their lack of creativity and technical skill, and because they frequently close themselves into an endless "hoof the ball to the penalty area" cycle. Serbia has not been living up to the expectations in the past years, but they without doubt have quality. They are smart team, who knows how to attack quickly and efficiently. Their big problem in the near past has been games against supposedly weaker sides, where they got struck by few big surprises. Probably it is a motivation issue. In the hard games, they tend to perform well. I think they won't lose to Scotland, and it is very likely that they manage to steal the win.

  3. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Guys, I am very happy with the performance of our team, but very sorry that we misled you so much. The game that Bulgarians threw in, was really a shocker - they totally deserved to win this one. I am surprised with the great job Lupo Penev has done with the team. The metamorphosis is amazing. Sorry once again for giving you such a wrong advise.

  4. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8

    Liechtenstein - Bosnia-Hercegovina under 2.5 @ 2.30 centrebet Liechenstein are a team that struggles to score but also they are not a team that usually gets smashed either. In the European Championship qualifers, they did not score in 5 of their last 6 games, going under in 5 of these games, as well as not scoring in 3 of their 4 home game in these qualifers with 3 of these going under. BH had 4 clean sheets in their last 6 EC qualifiers, going under in 4 of these games while also going under in 3 of their 5 away games in these qualifiers. While they are likely to win as they have some very good players like Dzeko and Ibisevic, not too sure they will blow them out as they are a team that can be cocky against the minnows and thus may be complacent coming into this game
    I just check this game and i make a note of something we all seem to have overlooked. Bosnia is practically playing at home. The whole stadium is cheering for them and waving Bosnian flags. And they are really supporting them loudly and colorfully. I recall a friendly in Swtizerland (close to Licthenstein) few months ago between Bosnia and Brazil, when the whole stadium practically comprised of Bosnians.
  5. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8

    Provided that the price on Italy won't drop to 1.50 closer to kick off. In that case' date=' after 20 minutes if the score is 0-0 the price will be what you can get now, namely 1.70.[/quote'] Honestly Mustafa, I don't think that the price on Italy will fall. Bookies here base their prediction totally on their info and knowledge of Italians. They are aware that probably the team will start with two inexperienced internationally forwards - Giovinco and Osvaldo. This makes the price higher than it used to be few days ago. Bookies know very little about Bulgaria. I don't think they realize how ****e we are at the moment. They just check our stats and consider us as a mediocre team who could do some sparkles once in a while. They make their price, based on their knowledge of Italy. I make my judgment based on my knowledge of Bulgaria.
  6. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Guys, also about the Bulgaria - Italy game. Why don't you try live betting?! The sense is that I so rarely see Italy starting their games furiously, especially away from home. I am quite confident we ain't gonna see a goal in the first 20 minutes and the tempo will be slow. Then gradually the Italians will impose domination on the pitch. From my experience with live betting, I might say that around 20-25 minute, if the score is 0:0, the price on Italy should rise at least to 2.0-2.1.

  7. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8

    Italy 1.72 - Can't believe what I'm seeing - I'm off to remortgage the house, a different league to Bulgaria and should be 1.30.
    I am Bulgarian,i.e. insider, and I absolutely agree with this. At the moment, Bulgaria have nothing to offer against Italy: no class, no confidence, no team spirit, no good support from the crowd, no good collective....Nothing. It is indeed 1.25-1.30 in my opinion.
  8. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Could you please cut off this petty and meaningless argument about the Belgium game?!! This is a betting forum, not a football supporters argument room. I don't really think that the neither the age of the Belgians, nor the "bashing of Holland" matter so much that you need to devote that attention. On overall, I tend to agree with Kojic. Belgians might have great players but they haven't persuaded me at all that they have a good team. Their performance, even with the majority of this players, have been awful for many years. And we tones of examples of bad teams that have very good players. That's exactly what Kojic means by "over-hype" - the people value the players of Belgium because of their price-tag and statute which is very visible, but don't judge equally the performance of the Belgian team with the same players, because it is not so visible. I agree that the pressure on them will be very heavy. I am not sure if they can handle it. Probably it is likely that they get a win, but the question is whether the price for Belgium is real and whether it is worth taking it. In my opinion, the price is real, and even if it is not, then the deviation of the price is because of favoring the Belgians, not the other way round.

  9. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Another two coming from me: Malta - Armenia Malta @ 6.6. A pure value pick. I know Armenia should be better, but I don't think that at home it is very unlikely that Malta wins. Malta is the strongest among the minnows and often offers heavy opposition at home to much classier sides than Armenia. Of course, this should be a small stake bet, obviously. But you could also try the 1X double option - I am sure that the odds are still very tasty. And I think it is at least 50% likely that Malta won't lose. Iceland - Norway Norway @ 2.16 There is one trend I have noticed over the year. Though Iceland national and club teams are often hard to break at home even by bigger sides, they tend to perform exceptionally bad against other Scandinavian teams. I have no explanation for this, but I think it exists. Probably it is that other Scandinavian teams are familiar with the physical style of the Icelandic teams, because they practice very similar type of football. And when they cannot be surprised by Iceland and feel convenient with their way of playing, their superiority in class prevails.

  10. Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/19412708 Belgium Portieri: Simon Mignolet (Sunderland), Thibaut Courtois (Atlético Madrid), Jean-François Gillet (Torino) Difensori: Toby Alderweireld (Ajax), Vincent Kompany (Manchester City), Nicolas Lombaerts (Zenit San Pietroburgo), Thomas Vermaelen (Arsenal), Jan Vertonghen (Tottenham), Daniel Van Buyten (Bayern Monaco), Laurent Ciman (Standard), Guillaume Gillet (Anderlecht), Sébastien Pocognoli (Standard) Centrocampisti: Steven Defour (Porto), Moussa Dembélé (Tottenham), Marouane Fellaini (Everton), Timmy Simons (Norimberga), Jonathan Blondel (Bruges), Axel Witsel (Benfica) Attaccanti: Eden Hazard (Chelsea), Dries Mertens (PSV Eindhoven), Romelu Lukaku (West Bromwich Albion), Kevin Mirallas (Everton), Igor De Camargo (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Kevin De Bruyne (Werder Brema), Benji De Ceulaer (Lokeren), Christian Benteke (Genk). Belgium (-1) 2.75
    Lol,lol, mate, even with my obscure knowledge of Belgian football I see some huge mistakes here - Hazard is midfielder, not attacker, Dembele is a forward, not midfielder, Gillet is attacking midfielder, not defender.
  11. Re: World Cup 2014 » Qualification: Europe (UEFA)

    I will follow your reasoning but will take a little bit safer option with large stake. Portugal Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.53 (5 units) Bet365
    I don't recommend it, mate. Though it looks safer, in reality it isn't because the lower price asks for much higher stake than the one you will put for a price of 2.20. And the fact is that my forecast is based on reasoning that Portugal will not push much, especially after the first one or two goals. And in case that this assumption turns wrong, then Portugal can easily score even 5 goals, losing you the bet with the higher stake on it. I believe that bets with good logic behind them and priced above evens are winning in the long term. For instance, I think that this bet together with yours on Andorra are good bets with even better prices. Most probably, in the worse scenario, at least one of them will be a winner, which means still an overall profit.
  12. Re: World Cup 2014 » Qualification: Europe (UEFA) Luxemburg - Portugal Portugal Goals: Under 3.5 @ 2.20 Bookies are really surprising me the way they treat teams like Luxemburg. For God's sake, it is not a rocket science just to look at their recent scores at home and to see that in the last qualifiers they conceded 3 goals just once - vs. Bosnia, and all the other home games they did not concede more than 2 (including 0:2 loss to France). Actually in the last five years they got more than 3 goals at home just once - vs. Latvia. Do such records deserve 2.20 price in your opinion?! Portugal is a very classy side, but I don't see them trying to humiliate their hosts, especially since it is just a starter. They could have tried to score a lot if the game was in Portugal - to impress and amuse their fans, but in Luxemburg I see an ugly and slow game, and probably 2:0 for the guests. Portugal are btw very wasteful in front of goal - another argument in favor of this bet.

  13. Re: World Cup 2014 » Qualification: Europe (UEFA) - Sep 7/8 Bulgaria - Italy Italy to Win to Nil @ 2.40 Absolutely great price. Bulgaria did not score a single goal at home in the last qualifications! And they did not have many chances either. And I am speaking about games against teams like Montenegro and Wales, and this is Italy - one of the best defenses in the world. Bulgaria just does not have any decent man up-front and it will be extremely lucky if they score. Their top-strikers at the moment are Bojinov who just got a contract with a second-division Italian Verona and haven't played football for ages, and Mitsanski who plays for Bundesliga II side Frankfurt. In addition, I expect coach Penev to park the bus and not look very often at the opposite half of the pitch. Italy should score at least once, even without Cassano and Balotelli. Pazzini is very hot at the moment and he will be a huge threat for Bulgarian defense, which is fragile. According to my expectations, it will be a soft 2:0 victory for the Italians.

  14. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 28-30

    What do you mean by 'shorten your picks'? Do you mean have fewer bets?
    Yes, I mean reducing the number of bets. Or alternatively, I am trying to single out the type of bets which are just inherently more risky (of course, at the same coefficient) and not successful in the long term. I think that those "unders" and "overs" are probably in front of such list. It is just very often that I get the course of the game very well, but some lucky shots/unlucky misses spoil these types of bets. On the other hand, those "to maintain clean sheet" bets have been particularly very successful in the long term. I have to look back in my betting archive, but I think their success rate is more than 80% in my bets. Given that they are usually similarly priced with the unders/overs, I maybe see no sense in using the latter. But not decided yet - have to make more analysis.
  15. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 So far, the situation for betting in A PFG has been bad - there is no TV broadcast due to contact disagreement, so it is hard to judge the real value of the teams. But today I have a big and very good proposal for the fellow-punters: Minyor - CSKA Under [email protected] and Under 1.5 @ 2.60 I am absolutely confident about the first one and quite positive about the second. I know that 1.53 is way too short, but here we have very interesting circumstances which make this bet a must: - CSKA is still not allowed by the Federation to use their 8 new players. Given that theysuspended the contracts of more than 10 players over the summer, the team so far has been literally short of players - they have had only 13 men who ever played professional football, the rest are juniors with no professional experience.One of the starting players got injured last week and another one ended his contract, so now they got just 11 men. For the three games they had so far, CSKA did not make a single substitution because of this problem they are having. 270 minutes - no substitution.CSKA scored just one goal in three games, and it was an own goal. The team has no forwards at disposal at the moment - literally not a single forward. On the other hand, they are not bad defensively as they conceded only twice. - Minyor does not score a lot either. They will be more than happy to get the draw vs. one of the best teams in the league - CSKA. Even with the current problems at CSKA, Minyor will still be defending and looking for the draw. - The game is played at neutral venue - in Svoge, during a working day. So, there will be little crowd at the stadium. The pitch in Svoge is smaller and not in good condition. Given all these factors, I am absolutely sure there won't be more than 2 or 3 goal scoring chances for the whole game. Very likely it will finish 0:0 or 1:0 to one of the two sides.

  16. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 28-30 I am not happy with my recent picks - I keep on staying just a little above evens. I obviously have to shorten my picks, but don't according to which criteria: Rosenborg - Legia Under 2.5 @ 1.80 It was close and I was right that the game will be like a party of chess, but in the end it is zero money. These unders are always so risky. HJK - Bilbao HJK or Draw @ 2.20 Successful bet. Although I must admit, I did not expect such a high scoring game. Viktoria Pilsen - Lokeren Viktoria Asian Handicap -1 @ 1.875 VOID Viktoria won as expected but not enough to get the money from the bet. I seem to forget sometimes that it is a two-leg tie and if 1:0 suits Viktoria and there is not too much time left, they probably won't be going a lot forward. Rapid - PAOK PAOK DNB @ 2.20Reasoning and stats were pointing in PAOK's direction. The sore reality was pointing in different direction. Probably should have made more research into PAOK's current transfer policy (are they really the same team as in the last two years?!). AZ - Anji Under 2.5 @ 1.85I admit I could not have guessed this outcome. Anji are better I wrote it in my review. By 5:0 away in Alkmaar - this is way too much. I expected that AZ will hardly find the way to Anji's net. But never imagined Anji could score 5 - they rarely do it even against underdogs in the Russian league. Sporting - Horsens Sporting Goals: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 If Rapid-PAOK was my humiliation, then this was my great bet for tonight. Totally and entirely owned. Should have been braver and put more cash into this - it was so obvious.

  17. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 28-30 Indeed, I also forgot to add that Liverpool might be good value tonight! I know at first sight it does not seem very logical for them to push a lot against much weaker Hearts when they have important domestic games in hand, but the situation now at Anfield is very specific. The team still has no win in Premiership, but they had amazing performance against Man City. I think their self-confidence is good, but they are quite angry because of the bad luck they had so far. They need to win tonight and win with class to prove they are not in a crisis. Besides that, there are some players of high statute in Liverpool who are not part of Rodgers' vision about the team so far - Carrol, Downing, Henderson, Adams, Enrique, Spearing...I think that these guys will be really desperate to do their best if they play tonight and they won't take it as the usual boring decided Europa League game, but rather as a big chance to earn the trust of their manager and become part of his future plans. Hence, I see Liverpool winning heavily here. I am still not decided what bet exactly to take, but I see at least three home goals, and If they don't miss so many chances, it may even get ugly for Hearts.

  18. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 28-30 My bets for tomorrow: 1. Rosenborg - Legia Under 2.5 @ 1.80 Legia Warsaw is tight in defense and very prone to unders. Last year in EL, in their away games they had 5 unders out of 6 games, including 4 "1:0"s. Last year in Polish Ekstraklasa, Legia had average of 1.97 goals scored in their games, which put them in 13th place (out of 16th teams), meaning that they are the 4th most under-ish team in the league. Rosenborg does not score a lot either - 5 out of 8 games after the Euro 2012 pause finished with unders. At home in EL this summer they had 0:0 vs. Servette, a marginal 1:0 win against amateurs from Crusaders, and the only high scoring game was 2:2 with Ordabassy. 1:1 in the first leg means that both teams will be very cautious and I expect this to be like a game of chess. Despite being an away goal behind, Legia will not take huge risks. They will wait patiently for their chance and hope to score once, but a decisive goal. 2. HJK - Bilbao HJK or Draw @ 2.20 A must bet. The tie is decided, Atletik has nothing to play for and nothing to prove to Finnish team. In similar circumstances they lost to Slaven away. Bilbao had very bad start in the Primera, and I expect them to rest some players in preparation for the next round in the weekend. In Helsinki they are gonna struggle with much cooler weather than in Spain now and probably a worse pitch. Expect a low scoring game and a draw here. 3. Viktoria Pilsen - Lokeren Viktoria Asian Handicap -1 @ 1.875 I was surprised that Viktoria lost in Belgium last week, where they got defeated by a 94th minute goal. Viktoria is definitely the stronger team in my view here. They have CL experience from last year where they did reasonably well, followed by a really memorable performance against Schalke 04 in 1/16 round of EL, when in the away tie in Gelsenkirchen, Schalke managed to equalize and bring the game to extra time just two minutes before the end, and in extra time Viktoria lost after they were left with 9 men on the pitch (red card+injury). This year they have been very clinical in their European games, except for the Lokeren one - they got 4 wins out of 4. Lokeren are nothing special. It is their first time in Europe since 2003. They finished in the 8th place last year, and qualified by winning the national cup. I expect Viktoria to completely dominate the game and win by two or three goal margin. Yet, the price for AH-1 is good and it is a more protective bet. 4. Rapid - PAOK PAOK DNB @ 2.20 I barely managed to win my bet on PAOK last week after a late turn-around from the Greeks. Today I again choose them, this time with the precautionary DNB option. Maybe you will be surprised to hear it, but last year PAOK did not lose a single away game in Europe - they got 3 wins (among them 2:1 vs. Tottenham) and 3 draws (among them 0:0 in Udine and 2:2 vs. Rubin Kazan). The year before, PAOK lost only once away from home - 1:0 to Villareal, and achieved one victory (1:0 vs. Dinamo Zagreb) and a number of prestigious away draws (Ajax, Fenerbahce, Brugge, CSKA Moscow). I don't think that a team which lost only one away game in Europe for the last two years and did not lose at very inhospitable stadiums like those in Istanbul, Amsterdam, Moscow, Udine, Kazan and White Hart Lane, will lose against Rapid. Last participation of Rapid in group stages was in 2010 (Europa League), when they lost all their three home games in the group. 5. AZ - Anji Under 2.5 @ 1.85 Another classical under game. We have Anji which games very rarely feature many goals and which are very hard to break through. They are hosted by AZ Alkmaar, which have not been very prolific at least in the European tournaments. The first game finished with the tricky 1:0 home win, which makes it even more unlikely that we see many goals here. AZ will try patiently to explore Anji defense for possible weaknesses, while the Russian team will make sure they are closed well defensively and will wait for chances to counter-attack. I expect either a minimal 1:0 win for Anji or a 0:0 draw. 6. Sporting - Horsens Sporting Goals: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 I usually avoid this types of bets. But this time Sporting is under big pressure to start scoring goals after they did not manage to score a single goal in their first two games in Portugal, and they particularly disappointed on Monday where they lost at home to Rio Ave by 1:0. This makes me believe that Sporting will want to send a message and reinforce their self-confidence in a similar fashion like Atletik Bilbao did last week. Horsens just got a humiliating home defeat by 1:4 on Monday. Only two weeks ago they conceded another 4 goals at home. Their defense is definitely not their strongest part and they are no match for Sporting. I think that the Portugese will teach them a good lesson.

  19. Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August 1. Fenerbahche - Spartak Moscow Over 2.5 @ 1.80 :cry The only game that I watched. So unlucky! Plenty of great chances to get the third goal, but in the end it is still a loser. 2. Dinamo Kyiv - Monchengladbach Over 2.5 @ 2.00 :nana My lucky compensation for Fenerbahce - Spartak. Goals started flooding just in the last twenty minutes. 3. Lille - Copenhagen Under 2.5 @ 1.90 ;) The most solid and under control bet among the three.

  20. Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 28-30

    guys what do you think abouts Cska Moscow-AIK game.I know 1.3 in bet365 is too short for you bit i am going to put some real cash.I have 1 game i need 1 more to go.Cska look strong playing home team and despite AIK being the best visiting team in Sweden i think they cannot avoid the defeat?
    If you are to put "some real cash", I don't recommend this match. CSKA is not so solid at home at the moment - you can check their performance in the Russian league since the start of the new season. Besides, they don't need to win in order to qualify. Imagine a very likely scenario - CSKA takes the lead and AIK equalizes in the second half. Do you think that CSKA will be pushing for a winner, or they will be more cautious not to lose the game and the whole tie altogether?! If you need a 1.3 coefficient, there are much better options for you. You might pick for instance a handicap for PSV against Zeta Golubovci - I definitely see easy home win with at least two goal margin.
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