Fedar
-
Posts
1,067 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Fedar
-
-
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Today we got the last game for the Bulgarian Cup round between Lokomotiv Sofia and Chernomorets and I got a hot tip for you. If you remember correctly, I tipped successfully an away victory for Chernomorets in the same game for the league a few weeks earlier and Chernomorets got them with 3-0. I see absolutely no reason not to repeat my choice for today. Difference in class is big and Chernomorets are in a really hot form, plus they have big motivation to progress in the tournament. Loko Sofia, on the other hand, is in dismal condition and should be much more concerned about staying in the premier league where they are at 14th place currently. They are amidst a streak of four consecutive defeats, while Chernomorets is having 9 (NINE) consecutive wins!!! Chernomorets has been in Sofia for few days already preparing for this game. Home advantage here will be next to nothing, as the games will be played at neutral venue with very little home support. Chernomorets @ 1.75 (bet365)
-
Re: Group C > Dec 5th (AEL Limassol, Borussia M, Fenerbahce, Marseille) AEL - Marseille AEL was our favorite team for "unders" and Marseille are not famous particularly for being high goal scorers. Another meaningless game for both teams. Especially Marseille, which are having very tight competition in the top of the French league. AEL's attitude should not be any different than their typical conduct - staying solid in defense and looking for some set piece ahead to get the winner. Smells like under here. Under 2.5 @ 1.80 (b365)
-
Re: Group A > Dec 6th (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys) YB - Anzhi I fancy a lot a home win here for reasons mentioned above. Anzhi is qualified and will surely be traveling with many second squad players. So far in Europe and in Russian Premier League they have been playing with more or less the same squad every game, which should indicate that we cannot expect miracles from their reserves. They fielded reserve players for only two games so far - the two qualifying rounds for the Russian Cup. They didn't play well in both, beating second division Ural after penalties, and gaining a very difficult comeback victory at home vs. poor Krilya Sovetov. Both games had some meaning for Anzhi unlike this one for EL. Last but not least, Anzhi travels to Petersburg to meet Zenith over the weekend. The Swiss team needs a victory to keep their chances alive and hope for Liverpool's slip in Udine. They are highly motivated and should overcome a second squad Anzhi at home. YB @ 2.30 (bet365)
-
Re: Group F > Dec 6th (AIK Solna, Dnipro, Napoli, PSV) Napoli - PSV Once again we got a meaningless EL game between teams which have very important league games during the weekend. Already qualified Napoli plays Inter, while PSV clashes with Twente in Eredivisie. Especially for PSV, it is virtually important to win the game against Twente - one of their most inconvenient opponents in Holland. Napoli also needs to keep track of Juventus in Serie A. I see another slow game between two sides filled with reserves. Under 3 Goals Asian Goal-line @ 1.80 (bet365)
-
Re: Group G > Dec 6th (FC Basel, Genk, Sporting, Video Fehervar) Sporting - Videoton Once again, huge overestimation of Sporting despite their terrible condition. The team is experiencing the worst crisis in their recent history. They were few weeks ago close to the relegation zone, their attack is missing easy chances, and the defense slips easy goals against each mug team in Portugal. They got Sa Pinto fired, but the new Belgian coach hasn't yet succeeded in stabilizing them. Sporting is out of EL and plays Benfica during the weekend, so they won't care much about this game and will field many reserves. Videoton, on the other hand, has still chances to qualify and will go for victory. Indeed, they have some drop in form - 5 consecutive games without a win, but they are doing very well in Europe this year. They are very solid defensively and play stable football away from home - lost only twice out of 5 away games in Europe this year, one of the losses being to Basel after a late winner. They are more of capable to get something in Lisbon. Videoton or Draw @ 2.10 (b365)
-
Re: Group L > Dec 6th (FC Twente, Hannover 96, Helsingborgs, Levante) Twente - Helsinborg Another meaningless game in EL. Twente lost a lot of their attacking flair after selling during the summer De Jong and Ola John, and now the team has registered a number of low scoring games in Holland, but the bookies continue to overestimate their goal-scoring habits, based on past records. On Sunday they have a big derby in Eindhoven against PSV, which is so far their main contender for the title. Helsinborg have been in vacation already for few weeks. They got zero motivation and probably already some issue with their physical condition as they have just been training for the past weeks without regular football. I see this as a slow and dull game without many opportunities. Under 2.5 @ 2.30 (bet365)
-
Re: Group A > Dec 6th (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys) Judging from Rodgers' statements, he insisted several times that he wants his team to go through, and given that it is a decider, I pretty much expect full squad here. As for Udinese, Italians teams usually don't take such games seriously and if it was another opponent against Udinese in a meaningless game, I would be sure they will play with second squad. But Liverpool is a big scalp and they might go for it. But in all honesty I doubt it. Full squad Liverpool that needs desperately to win (because it is very likely that Anzhi will play only with reserves in Switzerland), should get the victory in Udine against a team with no chances to qualify and poor performance at home in EL. Anyhow, with this price - 2.10, for away win, this bet screams to be taken. I am pretty sure the price will go down significantly in the next few days, so a punter can make some profit even before the game kicks off by trading opposite selections.
-
Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13
Beveren - Liege 0-2 FT Did not watch the game, but seems like a comfortable win for the guests. My first tip of the Belgian league, by the way. :-)Standard @ 1.72 -
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) Off-topic: Mates, this is Nigeria. Knowing the level of gang terror, hostility, fire-arm spread among civil population etc., I guess it is very likely that each away team and the referee might be subject to serious abuse if they put up too much of a fight. By the way, we got similar stats in Bulgarian Third Division, where most of the games are played in small towns and villages, with only several police officers present (if any), and the pressure and abuse aimed at referees and away players are quite significant.
-
Re: Group H > Dec 5th (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd) Cluj are a good team, which likes to play away from home (better results in CL away than at home), and which I think is very unlikely to lose by 2 goals against a United side, filled with youngsters and reserves, which is looking forward to the derby of Manchester. I guess United will copy their attitude from the match in Istanbul. They played good and intensive football for the first 45 minutes, and during the second half they just surrendered - slowed down their rhythm and did not really go hard into man-to-man challenges. So, if Cluj manages to keep good result in the first half, I fancy them not to lose at Old Trafford.
-
Re: Group A > Dec 4th (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) They should care as far as they don't want to meet the likes of Barca, Bayern, Dortmund etc., and would rather fancy the chance to get Celtic, Valencia and Galatasaray/Cluj. Huge difference as basically all the group winners are very inconvenient teams, while among the second-placed there are teams that should be relatively easy prey. And if anybody does not care much in this game, it should be PSG, because they have important league games to win, because they are under-performing. While Porto can afford to lose a few games, and still be comfortable at the top in Portugal.
-
Re: Group A > Dec 6th (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys) Yes, Anzhi are through already. They just had a big derby today, where they defeated CSKA. And next week they play Zenith in Petersburg. Taking into accounts the three facts that I stated in the last three sentences, you can make the conclusions for yourself about their game with YBB.
-
Re: Group A > Dec 4th (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) PSG - Porto PSG are once again strongly over-valued here. I have the feeling that bookies are pricing more their money, rather than their actual quality at the moment. They might have great individuals but it is still far away from being a solid enough team. And they are too dependable on one man. I think Porto is definitely the smarter and the more confident team, which can easily get the draw they need to keep the first place. By looking at their stats you can check how difficult it is to beat Porto and how rarely it happens. And don't get confused by their present loss against Braga for the national cup - I think Porto prefers to concentrate on two fronts and leave aside the two cups in Portugal (naational cup and league cup).Porto love playing counter-attacking football with their sharp and fast players, and they are also very solid at the back. Porto or Draw @ 1.72 (bet365)
-
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
Not really, both team have qualified after BATE lost to Lille two hours earlier, so Valencia had strong incentive to win to get the first place, while Bayern were happy with the draw.Yes we remember last round in CL when Valencia and Bayern ended 1:1 it was a result which suit both teams -
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
If you like the conspiracy draw then why not back 0-0 at 5/1+ and 1-1 at 4/1+ on betfair. Better than around evens for the overall draw that is being quoted. If it's a fix' date=' I can't see them being as elaborate as 2-2 or 3-3 can you?![/quote'] Which brings back memories of an infamous game between Sweden and Denmark at Euro 2004 which finished exactly 2:2. Anyway, I think here that you are right, and this game should end either 0:0 or 1:1. But most probably it would be a boring and goal-less draw. -
Re: Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 1st December King Defoe and King Hangelaand! :nana P.S. This one never should have gone over, but once again - thanks, Hangelaand.
-
Re: West Ham v Chelsea > Sat 1st December
75 minutes gone and it's 1-1' date=' may find a lot out about Rafa (how he will be in long run) in the next 15 minutes, will he settle for the draw now??[/quote'] Knowing his style from Liverpool, I believe that in the last 15 minutes he will take out his best forward to fortify back with another holding midfielder and will say at the press-conference after the game that he is very happy with the result and the way his team played. "Oppa Rafa Style" ;-) -
Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 Am I deluded, or I really see incredible odds on Standard Liege?! Beveren is the worst team in the league now that Cercle Brugge is picking up form and scoring good results lately. They concede goals like a piece of cake - the worst defense in the Belgian league. They had some "impressive" home results lately: 2-6 to poor Club Brugge and 0-3 to Ostende for the Cup. The first fixture in August ended with an easy 3-1 victory for Standard. The guests are getting into very good shape lately as they stabilized tremendously their defense. I am not informed about any significant missings in Liege's team - all the major players were available for the Sunday game against Lierse and the cup game in Genk. With Beveren letting a flood of goals into their own net and Standard having defense in a great shape, it should logically lead to easy away win. I don't know why such high odds on Standard - Beveren did win two away games in a row, but their home form is terrible - LLDLD. Obviously Beveren is a fortress that can be too easily taken over. Standard @ 1.72
-
Re: Group F > Dec 5th (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Bayern will be fully motivated because they still have to defend the first place in the group, for which they need to win this game. Definitely a handicap victory for Bayern with maximum stakes. Two goals difference for Bayern here is the worst possible scenario if the Bavarians are extremely unlucky in front of goals. BATE have been for few weeks already finished with official football and in a Christmas mood and players have probably relaxed their regime and indulged in life pleasures. In case Bayern fails at home against Borussia, I would expect even more severe hammering of BATE at Allianz arena. My advice here is to do triple bet with different stakes. Bayern -1.5 @ 1.425 Max. Stake Bayern - 2.5@ 2.025 Medium Stake Bayern -3.5 @ 3.200 Small Stake
-
Re: Group D > Dec 4th (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Dortmund has been experiencing tremendous pressure in the last weeks as they have been having huge amount of very tight and intense games for a very short period of time. And they are still to meet Bayern today for the Bundesliga. The squad is relatively short, especially in areas like midfield, so playing the most intense football on three fronts must have started to affect Borussia. Against Dusseldorf for instance, I saw a lot of exhaustion in the home team, their legs seemed "heavy", they did not keep their regular fast tempo and dynamic football. I have many reasons to believe that they won't put better performance vs. City. I would have backed City under these circumstances and given that they have at least a little motivation to compete in EL. However, they meet United immediately after the Dortmund game. Therefore, I see them heavily rotating. I think that the right choice here must be Under 2.5. It is priced at 2.15 - a price which reflects the previous results of both teams in the group and their squad potential, but does not reflect their present motivation and the squad they are probably going to field.
-
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
I don't think that it is correct. I think Shakhtar are already qualified. They have better goal difference in the matches against Chelsea' date=' so if I understand the rules correctly Chelsea can't overtake them. So the only incentive for Shakhtar to draw the game is to finish top of the group. I still think you are right and they will play out a draw though.[/quote'] Spot on! I indeed forgot that the direct results between teams are decisive, not the goal-difference, when they finish with equal points! So, Shakhtar are through, but they do have incentive to keep the first place. -
Re: Group E > Dec 5th (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
Jase, did you check the table?! Juventus got 9 points, while Chelsea has 7, so it is obvious that Juve hasn't qualified. And the draw does suit both teams - first place for Shakhtar, qualification for Juve.Both sides have qualified and it doesn't really matter whether either finishes first or second because there aren't any easy games.... The draw doesn't suit either.... -
Re: Croatia > Prva HNL > 2012-13
Beroe has good support and loyal fans, and they don't like at all this unannounced friendship, but they have nothing to do. Official sports media is stifling these issues, as teams like Levski have extremely strong lobby there. And fans are happy in the end that in this harsh time there is somebody to provide money for their team and keep them among the elite group, so they can deal with few games like these. It is interesting to note, that these games between friends result in unexpected outcomes only in the cases when the big team's management wants to get rid of their coach.This is interesting...what do the fans of the smaller team think about it? Do they accept losing the game? -
Re: Croatia > Prva HNL > 2012-13
.....but bookies already know a lot' date=' unfortunately.[/quote'] Not sure whether they evaluate these "Balkan-style" relationships. For instance, in Partizan-Smederevo, home win was priced similarly to any other home game of Partizan against a team from the second half. And handicaps were way too high - "-1.5" was around 1.50, and after watching this game, I claim that had those played five games in a row, they would have all ended with at least 2-goal victory for Partizan. There are these relationships in Bulgaria as well. For instance, Levski - Montana and Levski - Beroe - if you check the history of these games, you would know what I am talking about. Nevertheless, bookies still price them as usual games of Levski.
Group B > Dec 4th (Arsenal, Schalke, Montpelier, Olympiakos)
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Group B > Dec 4th (Arsenal, Schalke, Montpelier, Olympiakos) Just a reminder - Olympiakos have a big game against Panathinaikos during the weekend.