Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
I don't agree here. If you have a team priced at 5.0, for which you believe the real price should be 4.0, this should be considered huge edge - practically 20%. With all due respect, I will never put high stakes on a 5.0 (or 4.0 in my perception) bet - it is still very unlikely to come through. You put high stakes at lower prices, if you have that edge - than you have an already high probability assigned by bookies, made even higher by your own perception, information, knowledge. For instance, during the international qualifiers, there was a very popular bet here - "San Marino not to score", which at early prices was around 1.20-1.22. Most punters here considered this was way overpriced because of stats and because they watch games of San Marino and knew how pathetic they are and what kind of miracle they need to score goals. Hence, according to the punters, the real price for "San Marino not scoring" should be around 1.020. This is a huge edge in the lowest probability segment and it justifies a very high stake and this been has been rock solid so far. In another example, most of us here considered price of 1.90-2.00 for United to beat Liverpool way too high. The opinion of the majority was that there is very huge class gap and this price is purely based on stereotypes about the big derby leveling chances. We were right - United indeed was very dominant and judging from the run of game, the price for home win should have been not more than 1.60. Still, putting very high stakes here would have been dangerous, because we are not talking about the highest probability and there is more variance involved here (I call it luck factor). And indeed, although United was way better then Liverpool, in the end it could have easily turned into a draw, after Liverpool scored one lucky and was close to another in the last minutes. So, regardless of the edge, you cannot go very high in stake if the probability is not really solid, otherwise you risk a lot. The only exception here is under "special circumstances", where your edge is abnormally huge. I had such example last spring in the local league, where the leader had an away game for which the bookies had priced away -1.5 handicap at 2.30. However, I knew that the home team announced they are going to play only with junior players (kids aged 15-16) as a form of protest against unfavorable referee treatment. From my experience with local football, I know that this is just another way to give away the victory to a friendly team, without having to play too much of a theater on the field. I don't know for what reason, but the bookies did not react much to these news and kept the price. I had real edge over them and went with the biggest stake I have had so far on a -1.5 away handicap. The final score of the game was 0-7, and it could have been easily double digits.Still can't get on a computer so am gonna have to wing it on phone... Surely the amount u stake should depend on the edge u hav rather than the price... Your percieved edge anyway. Here is an extreme example... If u make Man U a 1/2 shot and u are offered 4/6 do you get involved and for how much? If your offered evens then you're probably more inclined to play... Lets just say (in a fantasy world) that your offered 4/1!!! Surely your likely to have more on at that price than u would have done at 4/6? To be fair and transparent, I back to level stakes as punting large on horse outsiders kills me in the head!! -
Re: Chelsea v Southampton > Wed 16th January For me, this one is a perfect example of a "don't bet" game. Chelsea at 1.27 against the sound Saints is out of question - I can find you this week much more likely and "secure" winners at 1.40 and even 1.50. So, the choice should be backing the Saints. However, I am not into very long shots against very mighty teams like Chelsea, hence I turn to away Asian handicaps. +2AH at 1.81 would seem perfect to me to bet against "favorites" like Liverpool, Inter, Milan etc. - teams which rarely cover big handicaps. However, Chelsea are so volatile and unpredictable at the moment - they can easily bottle this game, and at the same time if they can easily destroy even unbeatable away handicaps like +3 and +4 if they hit the right gear. This unpredictability of Chelsea makes this game a no-bet affair for me.
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Re: Systems and backing at true value
If I calculated a team as having only a 20% chance of winning... I wouldn't back them' date=' full stop.[/quote'] Spot on! These too long shots are a disaster in the long run and there's enough evidence for that. Its like backing a third division team not to lose at Nou Camp because the bookies assigned a 0.25 % probability for this event, while the actual probability (in your own view) is 0.50%. Huge value, according to "value theorists", a stupid waste of money in my view. -
Re: Systems and backing at true value
If you had backed every home team playing against Barcelona in La Liga last year' date=' you would have had a nice 25% ROI despite only backing at an average 9% chance of winning.[/quote'] That's interesting - could you please provide some table where we can check this curious fact. And how about this year?! If you backed every home team against Barcelona you would have been simply bankrupt. -
Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United > Sun 20th January I don't think United are under-priced here. Yes, they have wonderful H2H with Spurs, but at the moment Spurs are playing probably their best football for a decade, and at the form they are showing at the moment, I think that the only team in the world that deserves a price lower than 2.30 to win at White Hart Lane is Barcelona. United are showing great results this year, but if we dig deeper into their games we are to discover many weaknesses, a lot of moments when luck has covered them. Many times this season they have shown huge instability in defense, particularly with respect to long balls and crosses. And the likes of Bale and Lennon will provide a lot of crosses in the penalty area of the devils. Their midfield also lacks consistency and in quite a few games I noticed how they suddenly surrendered control of the middle of the pitch to the opposition for very long periods. Two recent examples were the game vs. West Bromich on 29th of December, when the guests totally dominated United's midfield in the second half, and the last 30 minutes of yesterday's game when United midfield once again suddenly disappeared. I think that the call here has got to be "over" once again. No need to dig deeper into statistical details - we all know the scores that both United and Spurs recently achieve against top teams and other more offensive squads. Also the game from September was a perfect example of what we can expect here. I now probably again many people will talk about price of 1.66 "not having any value", but I once again strongly disagree. If 2 out of each 3 similar over bets at 1.66 are successful, then we get quite a value. And I am confident that "2 out of 3" strike rate is absolutely achieved and over-achieved in these types of games (United-Pool, Spurs-Arsenal, United-Spurs, Chelsea-Arsenal, Chelsea-Spurs etc.). Over 2.5 @ 1.66
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Re: all lower leagues and Cups > 2012/13 I don't know how to open a thread with a table featuring games and odds, so I will just write here. I am interested in knowing more about the Belgium cup game Anderlecht-Gent. I follow with this league and I watched the first game in Gent, so I cannot stop thinking that 1.36 for Anderlecht is a little too high. Gent is a terrible team this year, and I mean really bad - not able to score goals and showing poor defensive display. The first game finished 1:1 indeed, but Anderlecht was way better and I think they just did not push that much to get the victory because they felt a draw is ok. Now Anderlecht should be rested well after a very tight marathon for them for the last several months. Plus, this is the first game after the break, so it can be suggested that Anderlecht should be very motivated. Against this bet there are only two factors - top scorer Mbokani is out and Anderlecht plays second-placed Zulte during the weekend. However, this teams played just a couple of months ago in the league in Brussels, and Mbokani was absent for that match as well. I remember the price for home win was 1.40 and Anderlecht totally destroyed them - 5:0 and many other chances. I am curious to here some opinions from Belgian friends.
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January
A good round for me, although would have been perfect if Juve did not blow it in the end. It's amazing how bookies continue to over-estimate Roma round after round and offer tasty coefficients against a team with terrible defense. Roma and Bilbao are turning into my favorite teams to bet against.Juve @ 1.72 :cry Catania @ 2.87 :rollin3. Udinese - Fiorentina Over 2.5 @ 2.00 :D -
Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13
16th minute and it is already 2:2!!! What a crazy game and what a pleasant way to win your bet! This time bookies were clearly terribly wrong with their judgment after hugely over-inflating the prices for "unders" just because of one player missing.......... Maybe it is a better idea to have a look at the goal market. Over 2.5 at 2.00 seems a little too high, especially considering the history between these two teams, featuring plenty of goals. Yes, James is out and Porto might have reduced offensive capability, and the very close competition between these two teams might result in a more tactical approach to this derby. Nevertheless, I feel that the overs here should be more likely than the unders, despite what odds suggest. Benfica will more likely be very aggressive, because they will be looking to use the home match to get some advantage in this tight race, where dropping points happens rarely. In all honesty, I don't think that a draw here will be a good result for the Eagles, although it would still keep them in first place. It is extreme rarity when Porto drops points to lesser teams in Liga Sagres, even in meaningless games for the League Cup they somehow manage to sneak victory, and they already won their most challenging and difficult game besides the derby - 2:0 away in Braga. So, I think that Benfica will go firmly for the win from the start, thus increasing the chance for an early goal or at least a goal before half-time. And such a goal in my view will make "over 2.5" almost a certainty as it will open up the game a lot. -
Re: Scottish Football > Sat 12th January
Oh, Jesus :wall You followed blindly a tip about a team and league you don't know and now you are complaining like a little girl! For God's sake, this is football! Even if you are at last place and miss players, that does not mean you have to necessarily lose.i must admit i blindly followed the dunfermline pick......1-3 ......i don t know what to think .....there are severel scenarios ..... or some people don't know their own local football or bad intention or simply bad skills ..... how can a team who has the missings you say it has and who sits rock bottom can beat the leader on it's own turf ?? don't get me wrong ....i m not a soar loser but this is to much..... -
Re: Portugal > Super Liga > 2012/13 I would like to add to Drac Blau's great review also some impression regarding Porto and particularly their last league game against Nacional. Of course, making a note that Porto did not play with more than 60% of their actual potential and effort since they were saving energy for Benfica. Nevertheless, it was obvious even in this circumstances what huge blow James injury is. Porto's brand football consists of three forwards and extensive usage of the two wings (Varela and James), whereas Moutinho and Lucho with their great vision and long passes (something like Xabi Alonso style) very quickly change between attack from left to right and the other way, thus causing complete havoc in defenses. However, now that one of the key wingers is out, and his substitution Defour is a relatively slow player who is not capable of charging defenders man-to-man, the whole philosophy of Porto is under question. The right flank does not cause much a threat any more, and this makes their game way more predictable and affects negatively the performance of Jackson, who has got much more attention on himself now. Unfortunately for Porto, young Ghanaian talent Atsu who is a great and fast dribbler, is out due to international duty, and they are left with no choices. Furthermore, I don't like much the attacking contribution of right full-back Danillo and unfortunately he is the one who should be supporting the right flank in James' absence. Nevertheless, I am still not sure I would take Benfica. From what I have seen, they are way too vulnerable in defense and make plenty of silly mistakes. I respect a lot their attacking power and the great diversity and skill they have up-front. But in my view, Porto is a smarter and more mature team, and definitely has got edge in defense, where Otamendi and Mangala are in top form. We see from recent history that Porto strongly dominates this rivalry, even in Lisbon. And if Benfica are to continue to give free gifts in defense, even without James, great players like Jackson and Varela may cause huge trouble for the Eagles. Maybe it is a better idea to have a look at the goal market. Over 2.5 at 2.00 seems a little too high, especially considering the history between these two teams, featuring plenty of goals. Yes, James is out and Porto might have reduced offensive capability, and the very close competition between these two teams might result in a more tactical approach to this derby. Nevertheless, I feel that the overs here should be more likely than the unders, despite what odds suggest. Benfica will more likely be very aggressive, because they will be looking to use the home match to get some advantage in this tight race, where dropping points happens rarely. In all honesty, I don't think that a draw here will be a good result for the Eagles, although it would still keep them in first place. It is extreme rarity when Porto drops points to lesser teams in Liga Sagres, even in meaningless games for the League Cup they somehow manage to sneak victory, and they already won their most challenging and difficult game besides the derby - 2:0 away in Braga. So, I think that Benfica will go firmly for the win from the start, thus increasing the chance for an early goal or at least a goal before half-time. And such a goal in my view will make "over 2.5" almost a certainty as it will open up the game a lot.
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January This is getting annoying, but since I was accused of contradicting myself, I feel I need to answer. Ruscopico, how come these two statements - "United have good price to win vs. Liverpool" and "Liverpool performs well against top teams", cannot be true at the same time in your universe?! Do you believe that what is not white is necessarily black?! Yes, United have good price because their clinical at home this season, and they are clinical at home against Liverpool. And Liverpool do perform well against top clubs. And the latter fact was pointed out only as a reply to your pathetic and laughable attempts to claim that United-Liverpool is no different than say United-Stoke or United-West Bromich. Now could you please try to contribute with something with respect to betting, because I somehow fail to see any contribution from you on this thread, besides your arduous attempts to prove that one of the greatest team in history of football is a small team.
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Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Sun 13th January I agree with the reasoning about expected "under" here, but I really don't like this type of bet, especially when such teams and players are involved. It is just too volatile and unpredictable, and it is very often the case that pretty underish and boring games finish with "over" after some lucky shots open up the match. I think that the value here is with the home team. City missing two of their three key players and game changers - Toure and Aguero (third one is Silva). Both of them cannot be properly replaced and heavily reduce Man City's performance. None among Tevez, Dzeko and Balotelli is a match to Aguero - the Argentinian has wonderful first-touch, ball control and protection, consistency, surprising moves which catch defenses unprepared, and ability to create scoring chances from the most complicated situations. Toure is the man who pulls the strings together and who determines the rhythm of this team. His contribution is exclusive both in defensive and offensive phase. No other player in this team can even closely replicate the influence and role of Yaya in City. Furthermore, City have not been impressive at all throughout the whole season. They managed to overcome the huge crisis from Novermber, but they never shined and were showing quite volatile performance. It is a big plus for them that Company and Lescott are finally back together - the injuries that spoiled their defensive partnership were among the key reasons for City's drop in form this season. However, they still need time to rediscover their smooth cooperation. Besides, Joe Hart continues to be insecure which affects also the men in front of him. I don't have much to say about Arsenal - we all know how unpredictable and inconsistent they are. But they are having a full-strength team. Their right flank has been amazing and nearly impossible to stop with Oxlade and Sagna. Walcott and Podoslki are finding form. And 2.63 is a very high price for a home team like Arsenal against inconsistent City.
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January
As has been pointed out several times in recent weeks' date=' Liverpool have not beaten a team in the top half of the table this season, but are unbeaten against teams in the bottom half. Therefore, under Brendan Rodgers they seem to do worse against the top teams if anything[/quote'] First, I would prefer to use a bit wider time window - say, the last 3 seasons, rather than the last few months since Brendan has been coaching. Especially since the core of Liverpool players that will confront United has been the same over the past several seasons. And Liverpool did perform very well against top teams. Second, I would prefer not to take raw stats, but rather to dig into it. Yes, Liverpool did not get the points against top teams so far under Rogers. But Liverpool did outplay both United and City, where ferocious referee and defensive mistakes denied them the victory. Liverpool had a pretty decent performance against Spurs and Chelsea. They had an excellent game against Everton which this year can also be considered as a top team. Liverpool was poor only against Arsenal. So, even if they don't get the right results, Liverpool continues to play very well against top teams even under Rogers. -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January Interesting stats from today's sport press: Since 2005, Untied receives on average a penalty per 6.6 matches, and is punished with a penalty per 13.2 matches. Whenever Howard Webb is refereeing, United gets one penalty in their favor every 3.6 games, and is punished with a penalty every 16th game. United to Score a Penalty @ 6.00 United to Miss a Penalty@ 17.00 (be365)
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January Another round in Serie A where it is really hard to find value or a strong bankers. However, few games caught my attention. Parma - Juve I think a price of 1.72 for Juve immediately after they lost (at home in a more or less shameful way) is something that cannot be missed. Juve are not only the best team in the league, but one of the most reliable "bounce-backers". I haven't checked stats exclusively, but as far as I remember, in the last few seasons whenever they dropped points, they immediately recovered by winning (usually comfortably) in the next round. This price would have been fair estimation if Juve had won against Samp. But now the bianconeri will be extra motivated and it is really hard to withhold them when they approach games like that. As to the argument with likely exhaustion from 120 mins of play yesterday, I don't fully agree. Juve rested many players and would have against Parma 5 or 6 men who did not start yesterday. Besides, this is Juve what we are talking about - the team with excellent fitness, wide squad and very much used to playing tight schedule. Juve @ 1.72 2. Catania - Roma With all my respect to Roma, I just don't see how they can be favorites away to Catania. The Sicilians are one of the best home teams in the country and Roma are poor travelers. Moreover, Roma's continuing pathetic performance in defense is excellent match-up for a very balanced and pragmatic Catania - the "Elephants" are very solid in the back and have a lot to offer against strong Roma attack, and at the same time, they can surely make use of Roma's very weak defense line. Catania @ 2.87 3. Udinese - Fiorentina I agree with Stressina's pick about the over 2.5 in this one. I think that both teams have nothing to lose, need urgently points (Udine for Europa League spots, Firenze for CL battle) and are not afraid of each other. Fiorentina should have left a few goals in the bag after last week, when they missed so many good chances vs. Pescara. Rossi might feature in this one as well. Udinese should have a strong morale boost after defeating Inter. I see a game with more attacking and less strategic calculations. Over 2.5 @ 2.00
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January
I think that the time when Pescara would play open football away from home and be involved in goal-full games is way over. Against Fiorentina they chose the old and proven strategy of parking the bus and defending with the whole eleven men, and it paid off well for them, so I don't believe they will change their behavior. Inter, to be honest, do not seem like the most creative and consistent team in Serie A, furthermore their strikers are not that clinical in front of goal, so it is very likely that Pescara might withhold them for a long time and turn this into a tight affair. Pescara themselves do not offer much threat going forward - from what I have seen against La Viola, the only dangerous and decent player they have up-front is left winger Weiss, who is really high-class and quite able to dribble past more than one defenders. However, I doubt he will be enough to pose huge threat for Inter. I think this one would probably end in a hard 1:0 victory for Inter, although a surprising draw is not out of reach.-Their certainly seems to be a shortage of defenders in Serie A for this weekend as Inter are struggling too with suspensions to Juan and Rannochia and Samuel injured. That’s the first choice back three out and will more than likely mean Cambiasso starting in defence again, alongside the returning Chivu and Silvestre. I still think Inter will get the win as they should be too strong physically in other areas of the pitch, but goals look likely at both ends. The over 2.5 isn't a great price, so maybe both to score or the Pescara +0.5 goals may offer better opportunities. As always the thoughts of others would be appreciated. Lets hope this thread is as busy as last weekend. -
Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13
Unfortunately, you have no chance to get your bet void. The bookies have no contractual obligation to inform you on such matters as change of venue and or other special circumstances surrounding the game. All the info that they are required to provide is the team names, competition and starting time. And no disrespect, mate, but you really should have checked the details about this game - at least reading a brief game preview, where definitely you would have come upon this. Also, given that the Turkish Superliga is having a winter break at the moment, you should have inquired as to why these two teams play when everybody else is having a rest.Hey guys, i had placed a bet on akhisar-antalya. My friend just told me that the game started at minute 16. My bookie didn't let me know that the game will start at minute 16. Is it true that the game didn't start from first minute? should my bookie void all bets on this game? -
Re: Copa Del Rey > 8th January - 10th January
All is good, when ends good. :DThe game was boring, but the tradition continues with a lot of goals. 1:2 FT -
Re: Copa Del Rey > 8th January - 10th January
I would not advise to take the Seville over. The game is totally decided, probably both teams will rest a lot of player. Most likely, it would be a slow-tempo and boring game.Sevilla v Mallorca over 2,5 @1,8 (unibet) 5/10 In the last 3 games between Sevilla and Mallorca which played in 2012 scored even 14 goals. Seville is a lot better team than Mallorca and they play very variable, for me there's nothing to the story except to expect a lot of goals. If someone wants to try and experiment with some more goals. Real Madrid v Celta Vigo ver 2,5 @1,25 (unibet) Nothing to say. Real recently played poorly, play a game with lots of goals. Tradition says that the match had to go to more than 2.5 goals. REAL over 2,5 Sevilla over 2,5 DOUBLE @ 2,25 5/10 I wrote up what I think. Good luck to everyone -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January
Aidymac, I realize that you are Man United supporter, so no hard feelings, but we are trying to be as objective as possible, because our only priority here is profit. Having Howard Webb as the ref, for me means that if the game gets sloppy for United, any important borderline decision will go in their favor. This means that if there are some tough tackles flying in the air, the chance that a Liverpool bad tackle is punished by red card increases with substantial percentage, while the chance that a Untied player will get away with similar type of tackle also gets higher. This also means much higher chance that any soft penalty in United's favor might be given, and since Man United are the team expected to attack heavily here, there will be quite a few opportunities for soft penalties. And I don't need any stats for this (anyway, how can an actual stat be compiled in this respect?!), I use my experience with watching Premier League football. Dunno for sure if Webb is United supporter or he is just too much affected by Ferguson common rants at referees during games, but it is a fact that a huge number of big border-line decisions in big games have gone in United's favor when Webb has been refereeing.Lads, if ye are saying Howard Webb refereeing the match means United will win, I would like to see statistics to prove that. Unless that is provided, such reasoning is absolutely ridiculous. Liverpool always get pumped up for a United game, this match could go either way, but yes United should win for me. Form goes out the window for this match, and for some reason, over the years, this is the only match Liverpool actually care about. -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January
I actually have a better proposition than the "over". Over 2.5 is 1.60, while "United over 1.5 goals" is 1.72!!! This is what I call value! So, according to the market and these prices, a Liverpool win with scores like "1:2", "1:3", "0:3" (all the scores where over 2.5 is achieved and at the same time United scores less than 2 goals) is more likely than a "2:0" United win. No way in hell! Not according statistics, not according current form and condition, not according even the prices that the same market have attached to both teams in the game! Also, comparing this price with the straight United victory (1.83), I kind of fancy the first one more. Liverpool is poor in defense and United will come out with the best they have and the maximum motivation, so it will be hard for Pool not to concede at least 2. On the other hand, United have shown in many occasions this season that their defense and insecure De Gea might with ease concede 2 or 3 goals both at home and on the road. Hence, it is not an unlikely scenario that the likes of Suarez, Gerrard and Sturrridge score 2 or even more goals at Old Trafford. So, the "United over 1.5 goals" bet is a protection in case of a high scoring draw for instance, which is not at all unlikely, given United games so far. Man United over 1.5 goals @ 1.72 (bet365)Fedar you are spot on about the overs price. It doesn't matter how you look at this game and or what hunches you have on what might happen $1.64 is value every day of the week. As already metioned above.... 8 of the last 10 premier league fixtures between these 2 have been overs. 80% of man uniteds home games have been overs. 70% of liverpools away games have been overs. Should be a typical fast paced encounter where overs could be dusted by the hour mark. For what its worth i think the overs price should be around the $1.46 mark. Over 2.5 goals @ $1.64 betfair 7 points. Also like the chance of a sending off in this game but need to do more research. -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January Howard Web appointed as a referee. Nothing more to add. Home win is a banker.
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Re: Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers > Wed 2nd January
Mate, don't worry, a lot of us have been exactly where you are now. I myself have suffered from few really big bets on "easy money outcomes" in the beginning of my "career" (around a year and a half ago). The last one was a really tremendous loss from one game and caused me a horrific distress. Fortunately, I have kept my calm and gradually recovered those money. I did my piece of analysis and realized that I made horrific rookie mistakes when doing this bets, so it wasn't just "bad luck" or "a bad day in the office". I have done several big-lump bets since then, but this time after really careful selection and waiting for the right time and the right big bet to come in sight. Fortunately, all the "big-lump" picks I have done ever since the huge blow, have been easy successes, but that's because I taught myself self-discipline and worked hard to restrict the natural human greed at the sight of the so-called "easy money". My advice if you decide to do very heavy bets at low price in the future, is to avoid national leagues, and rather look at international qualifiers and Champions League early stages. These are the places where you can find a real mismatch between two teams and where you can get some very good opportunities for lumping money. In national leagues there is always room for surprises, because if a team has deserved their place in the league, it means that they can put up a fight against anyone there. While in international qualifiers and CL/Europa League early stages, there are teams that are totally out of depth and are completely mismatched against much stronger rivals. Another advice - if you anyway decide to bet big on a certain favorite in a national league against the last team in the group, as in the instance of Chelsea-QPR, I don't think is a good idea to pick a favorite that has won in a very convincing manner the last few games. It means the likelihood that they willl totally underestimate the underdog increases a lot. It would be better to pick a strong favorite which has just slipped in the last game (draw or loss), because it would most certainly guarantee strong motivation and right attitude. Good luck with your future picks, mate, and keep your head up!......... Out of curiosity, does anyone here ever bet big on games they suspect will be an easy win? This was a first for me and it cost me dearly. I mean with odds as low as 3/9 for a team like Man City up against Reading, do people still go out and bet big in the hope for a small return? The more questions I ask, the more I believe I've got some reading up to do. I thought I had it in the bag but it never comes easy. But I'm a fighter and I don't intend on quitting. I just need to come up with a good strategy and stick with it. Picking the odd game here and there for a little action certainly isn't the way to go! . -
Re: Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers > Wed 2nd January
10% on a over 0.5 "big lump" bet?! Alex, you must have a really huge bank then. A lot of people on this forum bet 10% on bets at the range of 1.80-2.00, Rio even bet 100% of his bank on a Leeds half-time win vs. Chelsea (and he won!). :D..... The main thing I bet on is Over 0.5, which obviously means routinely taking odds as low as 1.03. Most the time that kind of bet is fine, but the problem with it is eventually you'll lose, and almost certainly make a loss. I got to a point where I was putting 10%+ of my bank on such bets, and just accepting how stressful that is, heart pounding until a goal goes in, it just isn't right to bet like that. So now it's 1% of the bank maximum from now on. ...
The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
I personally always look at individual bets. Looking at average odds over course of time makes theoretical sense, but in real life it is about each individual bet and is it worth taking it. Even when I have a strategy to follow with my bets one particular team for which I have seen they systematically perform better than odds, I still take an individual approach to each game. This means that if for the particular game I feel they are weakened (missing players, mid-week football exhaustion, inconvenient opponent), I don't take the bet, regardless that "on average" it is good to back this team. The average trend does not have much to do with an individual bet which has its own complexity and constraints. You say that "a lot of punters see short priced favourites as having extremely low risk, when its actually the opposite IMO". You are right that there is psychological phenomenon involved here and it is about mis-perception of actual risk when you bet on a low risk - low stake game, but you don't realize that if you bet on the same game three times in a row (to break even), then the risk is actually much higher than the individual bet. Maybe this is what you meant Jase, when you mentioned the average odds. However, I still believe in individual approach to each bet, it is just that at low odds you have to evaluate the actual risk involved in the light of the price assigned by bookies. Nevertheless, a similar psychological phenomenon of risk misperception exists also with the long shots. It is that with long shots you put less money and when you hit a winner, you collect bigger earnings, hence people tend to over-value the won money and under-value the lost ones, even if the latter exceed the former. The extreme example here is with big parlays which in essence are very long shots. Punters put on a regular basis a small amount of money on these parlays, so they tend to disregard the losses that accumulate slowly over time. And whenever they win, they win very big relative to their stake, and they have a delusional feeling that they are winning in the long run, when it is in fact the opposite. I personally tend to distance myself a bit from the major principles and axioms of value betting, where bets below 1.80-2.00 are taboo and very and unlikely odds are often considered "value" just because of individual perception of punter. I would take most bets where I see higher probability than price assigned, regardless of whether the price is low. In fact, I would rarely take a bet above 2.50, because I believe that value perception may get very polluted at too high price ranges. That's because almost any bet above 2.50-3.00 would require also significant contribution from the "luck factor" to come through. And I prefer to focus on things other than luck when considering value.