Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt Well, I am still here because I haven't started yet. :lol It is called "desperate glory hunt" for a reason, I guess. But let's see what happens anyway. There will be the starting bets soon.
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Cheers, fellas! After checking and enjoying many different glory hunts on this sub-forum, I decided to run my own experiment here. I call it a mug glory hunt, because it shares all the characteristics of mug betting - low coefficients, stakes disproportionally high compared with the bank, delusional belief in the success of the hunt. :loon However, I intend to make this hunt a little different than the common ones and hope it will make it more entertaining (and hopefully last longer than a day or two). Because I have watched many well-going glory hunts which get ruined because of pushing too much with the bets, the aim of my experiment is to check whether a glory hunt can be successful, if the hunter has more patience and works slowly, in increments. So, these are the conditions of my glory hunt: 1. Starting bank: Probably it be smarter to run the experiment with symbolic money, as a desperate hunt should be destined to desperately fail. :lol However, I thought that if the starting money is too low, I would probably not be motivated to devote much effort to this hunt and it will affect the quality of my selections. So, I decided to take the 50 euro winnings from a very fortunate (and undeserved) bet I did lately and since it was earned with too much luck I assumed these winnings can carry forward the luck they were born with. So, starting bank is: 50 euros. 2. Coefficients I will use low coefficients, but not the usual favorites of glory hunters - 1.01-1.03 - I will go a bit higher and aim at prices around 1.20-1.30, though occasionally I may go up to 1.50 and down to 1.10, depending on the circumstances. 3. Selections I am going to bet only on teams that I know very well. No blind bets based only stats, no betting on an everyday basis. I will take my take and wait for the right selections to come here. There will be days with 7-8 bets (if the right teams meet at the right time), there will be consecutive days with no bets. I will use a lot of combos. Of course, saying all this, assuming that I don't get busted on my first day (a very high risk). 4. Stakes As I said in my intro, my stakes will be unreasonably high as compared to my bank. As a matter of fact, I intend to bet all my bank in the beginning, until I get some good grip on my glory hunt. If I am extremely fortunate and I survive the first two days (very unlikely), it will mean that I have substantially increased my bank and therefore will start staking only parts of it (half the bank). :D The longer it gets, the safer the staking will become. 5. Final Target and Termination Conditions My final target is quite brave - multiplying my initial bank by a multiple of 100. Or in other words - achieving 5,000. Important condition - I am not allowed to invest any other money beyond the starting bank. Hence, whenever the bank goes down to ground zero, it will mean that my quest is over and failed. In case that by the end of this football season - May 2013, my quest is still alive, but not accomplished its target, I will announce it finished and withdraw the money. I am now ready to sacrifice my 50 euro lucky winnings in the name of the God of the glory-hunters and mugs! :D Wish me good luck and let this really last a bit longer than a day or two - it will be fun, believe me. I will start with my first picks either on Friday evening or on Saturday. See you then, folks!
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Re: Belgium > Jupiler League > 2012/13 Pg_yid, Bet365 offers O2.5 at 1.70 at the moment. Was 1.43 the initial offering?! For me it was obviously wrong (and I am surprised that they make such a big mistake). Both teams have very good defenses at the moment, actually the two best defenses in Jupiler League. Anderlecht haven't conceded yet in 2013 and they played two very offensive and scoring teams like Lokeren and Genk. Standard have shown great improvement in defense since November.
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Re: ACN 2013 - quarterfinals > 3 February Ivory Coast - Nigeria After watching two games of both teams, I think 1.90 for CI is a wonderful price. Although it is already direct elimination (more cautious) and it is supposed to be a battle between two of superforces of African footie, I just think Nigeria has been purely terrible so far and they did not even deserve to play in this stage. I don't believe they will out of a sudden raise their game after three consecutive utterly crappy performances, and if they want to stand any chance against CI, they will have to not only raise their game, but completely change the quality of their display. What I saw in Nigeria so far is very discouraging for the supporters of the Supereagles - no movement, no passion, lazy and uncaring attitude, absolutely no team play, no game plan and idea what to do with ball, terrible and deluded management. Nigeria were outplayed by the outsider of the tournament and one of the minnows of African football - Ethiopia, a team, consisting almost exclusively from the very weak domestic league. Indeed, Nigeria have got some super-stars, but so far they do not seem to show big commitment, and the truth is that beyond the several big names, there is a number of mediocre and some really terrible players. For instance this guy Mba - I haven't seen for a long time a professional player being so poor and disabled, I wonder what kind of a manager can play such a "footballer" in the starting eleven! Ivory Coast haven't turned on the highest speed yet, but they showed their immense advantage in class to other teams in the tournament, and they are probably the only team at this boring tournament that actually plays football at some decent speed, unlike the usual "sunday walk in the park" tempo of all the other teams. The "Elephants" are desperate to finally win this tournament and they will be twice as motivated as the direct elimination phase begins. I think they will easily overcome a Nigerian team without any spirit and commitment. Ivory Coast @ 1.9
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Re: Copa Libertadores season 2013 Something smells?! "Smell" is a too diplomatic and mild word for this game in my opinion. ;)
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Re: Bundesliga > 1st - 3rd February Hmm....this one has "overs" written all over it. Although, to be honest, I am not that familiar with Werder. But I know well Hannover, and their defense is total and utter mess. Against Volfsburg last week they could have conceded 6 or 7 goals if the guests were not so sloppy up-front. On the other hand, their wingers are real class and constant threat. "0:3" is out of question. "3:0" is possible, Hannover have been thrashed a few times away from home. But I think that 1:1 is more likely than 3:0. Hannover will attack a lot as far as they are lagging behind. Werder will obviously attack if they are losing. But if at some point this match gets "1:1", it can trigger a safer approach from both teams. So, maybe BTTS is better than Over.
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Re: Manchester United v Southampton > Jan 30th January
Like a boss! :okI think Saints have a possibility of scoring first on pld taford' date=' they are in good form and they are playing good football. Lallana is back for this game. My bet for this game is: [b']Man Utd from behind 7.00 bet365. -
Re: Copa Del Rey > 30th - 31st January Madrid value?! Not sure about that. Let's face it - their H2H with Barca is terrible, and they were in much better condition than now during these games. Their defense is still very bad and they will be without Casillas. They meet top-form Barca with full squad. The best Madrid can get here is a draw.
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13 PSV - Feyenoord KNB Cup Feyenoord is a team with great future. However, right now they cannot compete head to head with the best in Netherlands - PSV and Ajax, because their team, although very talented, is really like a kinder-garden. Here are the players that took part in the last game of Feyenoord vs. Twente on Sunday: Strikers - Boetius (18y), Achanbar (19y.), Pelle (27y); Midfielders - Clasie (21), Vilhena (18), Immers (26); Defenders - Vrij (20), Mathijsen (32), Janmaat (23), Indi (20). Especially in attack and midfield we are talking about kids, who, despite being very talented, have very little to no experience in Dutch football. They will have to play against some of the best and most established players in Eredivisie who have substantial experience with many games, goals and cups won - Strootman, Van Bomel, Mertens, Lens - just to name a few. To make matters worse for Feyenoord, one of their best attackers and most experienced players - Schaken, is injured. So, they are left with only two experienced and proven offensive players - Pelle and Immers. Hence, they are already two games without scoring a single goal. Although Feyenoord are having a very good season, considering the age of their players, when they play against the best teams in the country, their youth pays high toll and their results are not good at all: PSV-Feyenoord 3:0 (League game), Ajax - PSV 3-0, Twente - PSV 3:0, Vitesse - Feyenoord 1-0....This is only excerpt from the autumn 2012. Add to this also two home games - Feyenoord - Ajax 2:2 and Feyenoord - Twente 0:0, and we get a horrendous conclusion - Feyenoord have earned only 2 points against top 4 teams (out of 15 possible), managing to score just two goals! And to make things look even more frightening, PSV is the black cat for the Rotterdam team, and the away games at Phillips stadium are probably the worst events for Feyenoord - they lost 10-0 here just two years ago. PSV failed last home game with Zwolle, but now situation is very different - this is a derby and there is no chance for underestimation. I expect fully motivated and strong PSV and give very little chance to the guests. Goals can also be viable options, but the price for over 2.5 is just 1.44, and I honestly don't see PSV failing to win if at least three goals are scored. I think that handicaps are also more than likely here. PSV -1.5 @ 2.30 (bet 365)
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Re: Copa Libertadores season 2013
Are you sure about the high altitude?! As I see it on the map, Puerto la Cruz - the home town of Deportivo, is at the seaside, so I don't think there will be high altitude along the beach. I admit I don't know much about these two teams, but I would be very careful with such bet. First, how are you sure Tigre are poor travelers, since they had just few continental games so far? There is a huge difference between local leagues performance and continental tournaments. For instance, top Brazilian teams are very unpredictable at home in Serie A and you can often see surprising results there, while when they play in Copa America or Copa Sudamericana the same Brazilian teams are rock solid on home soil. Tigre has played only six away games so far in tournaments and they performed poor, but the teams they played were really strong - Sao Paulo, Millionarios, San Lorenzo. Each of these teams is much better than the Venezuelans. Deportivo also has almost no experience in such tournaments, so you cannot draw strong conclusions about them, and surely cannot claim they are strong home team just because they play well at their local league (one of the weakest in South America). For me personally handicaps are out of question in this game - it will be very tight and underish. Tigre needs just a draw and I think they will achieve it, as they are more experienced, better class and Argentinian teams are masters of defensive display.Guys, what you think about Deportivo Anzoategui - Tigre? Venezuelean team is very good at home, Tigre very poor on their travells. Match will be played on high altitude. In first game Deportivo play good. I thinking on Anzoategui -1 4,50 bet 365 but i don't know much about Latin America. Some info or your opinions for this match. Thanks. -
Re: Copa Libertadores 2013! Yes, Gremio might crush them, but I would be careful with such selections and with drawing comparisons with Sao Paulo's game. The Bolivian team is of much lower class than Quito - they had lost 8-0 to Santos, I think, just 8 months earlier, so it was an obvious proposition to expect them to get big beating. Quito might be poor travelers, but they don't get thrashed. Also, since it is a second leg, it is very likely that if Gremio gets a two goal lead, then they play very careful and defensive till the end. I remember I betted on Gremio to beat some Chilean team in Copa Sudamericana in the fall - they had drawn 1:1 in the away leg. In the return leg, although it was pretty obvious that Gremio is many classes above their opponents, the Brazilians just did not attack. They were happy with the result and preferred to keep possession and not try shooting. Something very similar happened to Sao Paulo in the same tournament - after drawing 1:1 away in the semi-final, in the return leg they were happy just to control the ball and keep the 0:0 score that saw them at the final of the tournament.
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Re: all lower leagues and Cups > 2012-13 Greek Cup, Wed. 30 January: Kavala - Olympiakos Oli won 2:0 the first one against the second division team. They rested half of their team for the first game, played very poor and slow football in the first half and managed to open the score just in the 60th minute, after the coach made two substitutions and brought important attacking players Abdun and Pantelic. Olympiakos also got their regular referee support - stopping any of the few dangerous attack of Kavala with ridiculous calls and pushing the guests deep into their penalty area with fake fouls. Obviously the tie is decided and I expect that Olympiakos will once again rest most of their squad, like they did in the first leg. I don't think we are about to see anything different from slow and boring football, Kavala defending, Olympiakos having enormous possession, but not really creating and caring much. Kavala have no illusions about this game, and they will be more than happy to earn a prestigious draw against the Greek giant. Olympiakos will be happy just to get this boring game finished and behind them. Something similar happened in the last round, when after having won comfortably against second division Panachaiki, Oli got a boring "1:1" draw in the away leg, which eventually got ruled out because riots erupted at the stadium in the last minutes and Oli were given a "3:0" formal victory. It is also worth mentioning that Kavala are strong home team and a very underish side. I propose two bets. Under 2.5 @ 1.95 (bet365) Kavala or Draw @ 3.75 (bet365)
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Re: Italian Cup > 29th January For whoever missed the news - the Italian federation suspended Conte, Bonucci, Vucinic and Chiellini (he is injured anyway) following the scandals at the game with Genoa. Pirlo has not recovered yet is also missing the match. Asamoah is in Africa. I personally don't see Juve winning anything at Stadio Olimpico tonight. They have problems in any department at the moment. Left full-back De Ceglie is just abysmal and has contribution in nearly every goal conceded by Juve. Marchisio not fully fit yet and the absence of Chiellini has destabilized their defense. The midfield is struggling at the absence of Pirlo and Asamoah - despite his stunning goals, Pogba is static and relatively limited technically player. The offensive part is even more problematic as all the forwards seem to be out of form, and Quagliarella has been out of form ever since he started playing football. Most probably he will be a starter tonight and I don't expect much from him - his performance in the last few games has been horrific despite a lucky goal on Saturday. Juventus have a nightmare schedule in the next 5 weeks - besides Champions League, they have to play Napoli, Fiorentina and Roma. Hence, their Sunday game in Chievo turns out to be of crucial importance. If they drop points there, there will be enormous risk that they will surrender the first place and probably even lag behind by a few points in the next month. Therefore, I feel that the game tonight won't be of crucial importance for Juve and they will rather devote more energy and attention to Sunday and the visit in Chievo.
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This Wednesday it is the second leg of the first round of Copa Libertadores. I am offering to your attention one game: Gremio (Brazil) - LDU Quito (Ecuador) The first game in Quito last week finished 1:0 for the Ecuadorian team and we are awaiting a very curious return match. For those of you who are not very familiar, Copa Libertadores is the most important tournament in South America, it is their Champions League and the number one trophy that every Latin club wants to earn. As you would guess, Brazilian and Argentinian teams are dominant in this competition, while Ecuador cannot boast with much success. It can be easily said that this is going to be the match of the year for both teams - LDU has the chance to achieve amazing success by kicking out one of the best Brazilian team and if Gremio gets eliminated in the first round, it will be huge shock for this team and a gross disappointment, especially after they had amazing last season. Stadio Olimpico Monumental will be surely sold out and 50,000 fanatic supporters from Torcida de Gremio will make it unbearable for the guests. 1:0 seems like a very inconvenient score, but if you are more familiar with Latin football, you will know it has its own complexities and specifics. One of the most important of them is HOME ADVANTAGE. Unlike Europe, home advantage in South American continental football is extremely strong - due to a mixture of very scary atmosphere at the stadium, geo-climatic conditions (supreme height at some countries), and referees' inclination to back the home teams. Hence, even the weakest team can achieve a home win against any of the best, although in the return leg they would probably get beaten badly. Although LDU Quito are a relatively solid squad (they won it in 2008), they are the typical home team. Their stats are fascinating. In the last 10 games at home in the tournament, they have 6 wins, 2 draws and just 2 defeats. However, when they travel, Quito did not manage to get a single victory for whole 13 games! They drew just three times and lost ten of these last 13 away fixtures, for an abysmal record of: 0-3-10. 6 of these 10 losses were with more than a goal. Gremio, on the other hand, perform amazing at home in Copa Libertadores - in the last 10 games they got: 7W - 2D - 1L. They kept a clean sheet in 7 of these 10 games! Now Gremio needs a two-goal victory and I believe they have every chance to achieve in front of their amazing crowd against the poor travelers of Quito. Despite LDU's success in 2008, the team is not among the prominent clubs on the continent, and should not be a match-up away from home against the third best team in Brazil at the moment. Gremio postponed their game from Campeonato Gaucho and will be fully rested and fresh for this clash. I am confident that Gremio will cover the handicap and I even expect a stronger victory - something like 3:0. Gremio -1.5 @ 2.10
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Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Bologna - Roma Roma are terrific goal-scorers, Bologna have some excellent forwards and the two teams produced a goal spectacle in Rome in September - 2:3 to Bologna. However, I think that on Sunday it is not likely to see many goals and I intend to make use of the habit of both bookies and punters to price unders too high just upon hearing the name of Roma. In fact, 3 out of the last 5 games of Roma away from home have been under 1.5 goals - a 1:0 win at Pescara and two 1:0 losses vs. Catania and Chievo. Meanwhile, they registered two overish away games, but the first one was against Napoli (4:1) - no point of comparison, as it is a match with entirely different complexity, and the second one was a 3-1 victory against Siena - after two late Roma goals beyond the 85th minute. Bologna create the impression of being more overish team at home - 4 out the last 5 games have been over 2.5. Nevertheless, most of these overs have been against team much different in style and class with Roma - Chievo, Palermo, Atalanta, etc. I think that against giallo-rossi, Bologna will be much more careful and protective. I also believe that Roma will respect the excellent home form of Bologna and will not disregard their defensive duties for the sake of total attacking football. The H2H also supports such thesis - the last 4 games in Bologna went under 2.5. As I said in the beginning, "unders" are sometimes very underestimated when Roma plays. Therefore, we are offered the convenience to take a safer bet at a very good price - under 3 at evens! Which means that our bet will be void in case that exactly three goals are scored! Under 3 @ 1.975 (bet 365)
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Re: Greece > Super League > 2012-13 PAOK - Xanthi PAOK to win to nil @ 2.00 (bet 365) I admit I have not watched any of the two teams, and although I generally don't like "blind" betting, think that stats here favor this bet too much to miss at this price. A clean-sheet victory for PAOK at 2.00 implies nearly 50% probability, while stats imply much higher probabilities here. PAOK are 6-2-0 at home in the league this season, with 5 clean sheets, and out of the 6 home wins, 4 have been with clean sheet. However, the two home draws have been against the almighty superpower Olympiakos and against very strong CL places contender Atromitos - both much higher class than Xanthi. They won but received a goal in two occasions - against Asteras Tripoli - also a strong team and a European participant, and against Aris - despite having a poor season, this is the fiercest rival of PAOK and also their town-mates. All the games at home against teams of Xanthi class have been victories with clean sheet for PAOK this season. Xanthi, on the other hand, are total mugs when they travel - the last victory was in early April 2012, this season the balance is 0-4-5. All the draws have been against weaker teams like OFI, Kerkira, Veria and Aris (who are weak this season). Xanthi did not score a goal in their last 6 visits, losing 4 of them. In the Greek league I have watched mostly Olympiakos. I know it is very defensive, and when Olympiakos plays, especially at home, opposition teams just don't try any attacking. They sit back and whenever they get a ball they lose it before reaching the middle half of the pitch. In most of these games, visiting teams do not even have a shot on goal. I know Olympiakos is stronger than PAOK, but nevertheless, PAOK is the second best team in the country right now and a powerful home team. I strongly suppose the away team will not cause much trouble attacking and it is unlikely they will get more than 1-2 shots on goal. The question is whether PAOK will be able to get their winner - stats show they will, as they missed to score at home only once and it was exactly the last game (hence, stronger motivation to score now). For me, this one is a 1:0 or 2:0 home win, and I rate the chance of this bet to be successful as at least 70-75%. Definitely worth taking at 2.00 Good to mention that it has been snowing in Northern Greece on Saturday (Olympiakos away game postponed), but weather forecasts for Thessaloniki for tomorrow show clear sky and positive temperatures.
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Re: Scotland > League Cup > 26th - 27th January
Mate, it is also worth mentioning that the game will be played at neural venue - national stadium in Glasgow. :ok Which should even make it better for your pick. I have watched St Mirren only once - in December, when they lost 2-0 vs Celtic. They seemed like a terrible team - absolutely no technical skills, just defending with all men. I think that unless Celtic are once again so wasteful, they should not have any problem beating hugely these guys. Anyway, could you tell me what is the motivation for this game?! As it is a semi-final and it is played at the National Stadium, I assume it will be more special than the average weekend league game and it will get higher attendance from Celtic fans and probably players will be more up to it than when they play regular league games. Is my assumption correct?! I am asking this question, because I know that when Celtic are motivated, they just thrash any opposition in the present format of Scottish football. And against one of the poorest squad, a fully motivated Celtic should easily cover big handicaps. However, when Celtic are not that motivated, they would oversleep the first 60 minutes and then become nervous in front of goal.CELTIC (-1.5AH) v St Mirren @ 1.95 (2/10pts) Celtic simply cannot get enough of the Saints. The aggregate score over their last 9 meetings leads 25-0 in Celtic's favour and I see nothing to suggest Neil Lennon's men won't hand out another pasting to the men managed by his namesake Danny. With Champions League duty on the backburner and a much-need two-week sunshine break in Marbella under their belts, Celtic have cranked up the gears as they bid to secure the title before Juventus come rolling into town. Accelerator should be firmly pushed down for this one too and with Gary Hooper in top form the chances are being eaten up. Saint won't lie down and might make life complicated for a while, but if Celtic score first and their opponents are forced to open up, I'd expect a few to fly in. -
Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13
Heracles -PSV 1-5. :( PSV way too strong and hungry for goals!Heracles - PSV At first sight, this one looks like the most certain "over 2.5" in Europe for the whole week. We have number 1 (PSV) against number 2 (Her.) in the table for overs in Eredivisie - PSV averaging 4.32 goals per match and Heracles averaging 3.74 goals. PSV are terrific goal scorers - they scored 61 goals so far, while the second high scoring team in the league - Ajax, have scored just 45. Heracles are the fourth highest goal-scorers, despite being at 10th place. Everything, including the miserable price of 1.40, suggest over in this match. However, after digging deeper into it, we discover interesting facts. This is the list of all the games between these two teams in Almelo in the last years: 1:1, 0:2, 0:1, 0:2, 0:2, 0:2, 1:1.Not a single game went over 2.5!!! If you research deeper, you will discover that actually most of this games featured late goals, which make them even more underish. It is very curious how such attacking teams produce such low-scoring games. I was wondering whether these teams were probably more defensive in the past seasons?! Heracles have been coached for several seasons by the same coach and more or less have maintained a core of players for a few years. They have shown high scoring throughout all these years, although this season is probably their most productive in terms of goal. PSV have also been for many years famous for being the best goal-scorers in the league. So, it is obviously something about the match-up of these two particular teams that make them produce low-scoring games in Almelo. Furthermore, Heracles have received bad news - these they had to sell their main forward Armenteros and key midfielder Overtoom, and they have no substitutes for them yet. This should hurt Heracles offensive. PSV, on the other hand, are missing attackers Narsingh and Toivonen (both long term). In the previous game, PSV lost in a shameful and surprising way at home to Zwolle. Their defense has been absolutely comical in this game, and veteran holding midfielder Van Bommel took active part in all goals scored by Zwolle after making terrible mistakes. I suppose that the main topic throughout this week training sessions in Eindhoven has been improving their defensive performance. I am confident that after their defenders made themselves look like clowns last week, now they will try to be very concentrated and keep it as tight as possible. Under 3.5 @ 1.80 (bt 365) -
Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January
Juve-Genoa 1:1. Upset predicted, bet won! :okJuve - Genoa I think Juve is way over-valued here. I do smell tough affair for the old lady and even some likely upset. But given the huge over-valuation of Juventus, a handicap support for Genoa will do excellent job at good odds. Why do I think it is going to be hard for Juve?! First, they are missing a number of important players tonight - Pirlo, Giovinco, Matri, Asamoah, Chiellini. Up-front couple will be Quagliarella and Vucinic, but they have no reliable substitutes in case things go wrong, and playing "golden substitute attackers" at a later stage of the game has been a key weapon for Juve many times. Furthermore, Pirlo's absence is a huge blow for Juve creativity, as well as Asamoah's missing will affect their physicality and aggression. Also, Juve had a tough game with Lazio during the week, with even tougher return game coming within few days. Genoa seem desperate and very poor, but after investigating carefully their performance, one could see that they tend to do well away against top teams. They drew with Inter at Meazza, won at Olimpico against Lazio and narrowly lost to Milan after a late goal from Shaarawy. If we go to previous season, we see another tight loss away to Milan by 1:0, loss to Inter by 5:4, another win vs. Lazio and a draw to Juve themselves - 2:2. In fact, the H2H in Turin shows that the last three matches were very tight - 2:2 and two Juve victories with "3:2". Definitely Genoa does not seem like a boxing bag and a team to get easily battered. The Genovese also have got a new coach who is making his debut in Turin. As we all know, this fact often raises the motivation and has generally positive effect in the beginning on the whole team. I think Juve will have a lot of difficulties tonight and will probably sneak the victory by the odd late goal - 1:0 or 2:1. Asian Handicap Genoa +2 is nearly priced at evens, and it is a very good option because it takes three goal margin to get it beaten. Genoa AH +2 @ 1.90 (b365) -
Re: La Liga > 21st - 28th January
2-1 by half-time, bet won!Deportivo - Valencia Super Depor used to be the team involved in some of the most attractive and high scoring games in the first part of the season. However, after the 6-0 fiasco at Madrid vs Atletico and the last place in the group, the team entirely changed its face and became ultra-defensive. The result - all five Depor games after Atletico Madrid went under 2.5 goals. However, this defensive improvement did not improve much the situation in La Coruna, as the team is still in the last place and obviously draws and minimal losses are not enough for them to progress. Deportivo and Valencia featured one of the most entertaining games of this season Primera Division in September. It finished 3:3 at Mestalla, but given the open play and situation in front of both goals, it could have easily finished 5:5 or 6:6. I think now it is high time for Deportivo to take some risks. They are the last team in the group, they play at home and they have to go for the three points, because simply drawing at home games will not be enough. Valencia are also outside Champions League reach - they are 5 points off 4th place, but competing with whole six other teams for this last spot. In such case, when they play with a clear relegation candidate, even at their stadium, Valencia must try everything to get three points. All this reasoning leads me to expect much more open game than recent stats suggest, and a game very much similar to the one from September. Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (bet 365) -
Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January
Sorry, the information yesterday in Italian press was that they won't make it, but obviously they passed the late fitness tests.Official Juventus site has Matri and Giovinco involved, mate. http://www.juventus.com/juve/en/news/25jan2013_Convocati -
Re: La Liga > 21st - 28th January Deportivo - Valencia Super Depor used to be the team involved in some of the most attractive and high scoring games in the first part of the season. However, after the 6-0 fiasco at Madrid vs Atletico and the last place in the group, the team entirely changed its face and became ultra-defensive. The result - all five Depor games after Atletico Madrid went under 2.5 goals. However, this defensive improvement did not improve much the situation in La Coruna, as the team is still in the last place and obviously draws and minimal losses are not enough for them to progress. Deportivo and Valencia featured one of the most entertaining games of this season Primera Division in September. It finished 3:3 at Mestalla, but given the open play and situation in front of both goals, it could have easily finished 5:5 or 6:6. I think now it is high time for Deportivo to take some risks. They are the last team in the group, they play at home and they have to go for the three points, because simply drawing at home games will not be enough. Valencia are also outside Champions League reach - they are 5 points off 4th place, but competing with whole six other teams for this last spot. In such case, when they play with a clear relegation candidate, even at their stadium, Valencia must try everything to get three points. All this reasoning leads me to expect much more open game than recent stats suggest, and a game very much similar to the one from September. Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (bet 365)
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Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Juve - Genoa I think Juve is way over-valued here. I do smell tough affair for the old lady and even some likely upset. But given the huge over-valuation of Juventus, a handicap support for Genoa will do excellent job at good odds. Why do I think it is going to be hard for Juve?! First, they are missing a number of important players tonight - Pirlo, Giovinco, Matri, Asamoah, Chiellini. Up-front couple will be Quagliarella and Vucinic, but they have no reliable substitutes in case things go wrong, and playing "golden substitute attackers" at a later stage of the game has been a key weapon for Juve many times. Furthermore, Pirlo's absence is a huge blow for Juve creativity, as well as Asamoah's missing will affect their physicality and aggression. Also, Juve had a tough game with Lazio during the week, with even tougher return game coming within few days. Genoa seem desperate and very poor, but after investigating carefully their performance, one could see that they tend to do well away against top teams. They drew with Inter at Meazza, won at Olimpico against Lazio and narrowly lost to Milan after a late goal from Shaarawy. If we go to previous season, we see another tight loss away to Milan by 1:0, loss to Inter by 5:4, another win vs. Lazio and a draw to Juve themselves - 2:2. In fact, the H2H in Turin shows that the last three matches were very tight - 2:2 and two Juve victories with "3:2". Definitely Genoa does not seem like a boxing bag and a team to get easily battered. The Genovese also have got a new coach who is making his debut in Turin. As we all know, this fact often raises the motivation and has generally positive effect in the beginning on the whole team. I think Juve will have a lot of difficulties tonight and will probably sneak the victory by the odd late goal - 1:0 or 2:1. Asian Handicap Genoa +2 is nearly priced at evens, and it is a very good option because it takes three goal margin to get it beaten. Genoa AH +2 @ 1.90 (b365)
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Re: FA Cup > 25th Jan - 27th Jan Any UK guy familiar with Brentford?! What kind of resistance can they put against Chelsea?!
The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt So, fellas, it is time to get started. Today and tomorrow I have planned four steps of combos and at each of them I will play all-in. Step 1: Combo 1. Werder - Hannover Over 1.5 @ 1.15 2. Besiktas - Karabuk Over 1.5 @ 1.18 3. Roma - Cagliari Cagliari Clean Sheet: no @ 1.071 Stake: 50 euros Potential Winnings: 22.66 euros