Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
I was thinking about such bet myself, but Lille's victory changes everything here. There is no theoretical chance that Valencia won't qualify, so in this case, they have nothing to lose and might try their best against Bayern, so that they get the first place. I expect now much more open and relaxed play from both sides.Valencia v Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.14 pinnacle Both teams sit on 9 points and no real need for either side to go all out and get the 3 points, as Valencia has Lille next and should be too strong for them while Bayern are at home to BATE Borisov and will be expected to make up for their surprise loss to them in the reverse fixture. Bayern won the reverse fixture 2-1 but are without several key attackers while others are coming back from injury so they are not as potent up front, while their defence is good. Their coach has already stated that he will be happy with a point, so would not be surprised if he plays with some more defensive-minded players in this game. Valencia kept clean sheets against Lille and BATE Borisov so they will be looking not to concede to Bayern like they did in the reverse game. Though they too have some injury concerns, this should then even up the several players that Bayern are also missing. By the looks of this, not much between the two sides and like this to remain a low scoring game -
Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Eastern Europeans think in a different way just look at Usun and Feeder for evidence of that:lol./QUOTE] True that Eastern Europeans, but in fact we had quite opposing views on the subject. ;-) >Could of course be coincidence but 0-2 after 30 minutes looks like they and also Usun in this case were correct. Not that Lille beating BATE is the biggest surprise in the history of CL. :-) -
Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I really don't get the point of Bate not being motivated, because qualifying for the next stage of either CL or EL will disrupt their winter preparation. First, winning tonight means a few more millions of euro in BATE's account, and believe - these money are vital for this team. Unlike Lille, they don't play in a fancy league where they get full stadiums at high prices and a lot of merchandise income. European money are key to BATE's development and growth, so each point they could win in CL is crucial for them. Second, BATE has been the champions of Belarus for six or seven consecutive years and they face absolutely no competition at home. I mean this is not the Premiership where for instance playing in Europe League might distract you and make you fail to qualify for CL. Even with a disruption in their winter pre-season preparation, BATE should easily earn another title and at the same time be ready for CL qualifyiers in July.
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Re: Group E > Nov 20 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland)
It is a very likely outcome, but I will personally stick with the unders. It is better priced and more logical. I feel that Chelsea will be closing themselves and there will be few goals, but who knows when they will fall and whether they will fall at all. For instance, if by half time the score is 0:0, there is high likelihood that the "second half" bet wins, but also there is a big likelihood of a 0:0 draw. I know we should not judge from just one game, but I cannot take Juve-Lazio game out of my head (probably cause I lost some money there). Juve looked so sure to score during their first half performance and the beginning of the second, but the more the clock was ticking, the more Juve became nervous and predictable.:ok:ok:oknice analyse and what do you think about more goals second [email protected] -
Re: Group H > Nov 20 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd) About Galata - United: although it would be a second-squad, maybe the players there for United will still be better in head-to-head comparison with these from Galatasaray. However, we should not miss one important point here - these guys have almost never played together in official game and most of them have very few playing minutes. This is a huge disadvantage against the Galata players, who play together fierce competitive games almost twice each week. Moreover, United probably won't have a single leader on the pitch - a man with experience and one commands strong respect among team-mates and can take responsibility in hard times. This is not a good proposition for United when they have to play against a fully motivated Turkish team with 50 thousand fanatic supporters behind them. I still think that Galata's victory is the way to go here, despite dropping price.
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Re: Group H > Nov 20 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd) Braga is way too tempting here. I have respect for Cluj, but think they are very inconsistent this season. They fired their coach and architect of their success - Ioan Andone (one of the best coaches in Romanian football), which was a big mistake in my opinion. They are vulnerable at home in the Romanian league - two losses and three draws so far, which is weak according to their standards. They also failed at home to Galata last round. I have the impression that this team feels way more comfortable playing away from home where they are given more space and don't carry the burden of having to push. However, now they will have to push for victory if they want to qualify for the next stage, because they play at Old Trafford in the end, and Galatasaray is meeting tomorrow the second team of United in Istanbul (high likelihood of victory for the Turks). Braga is a team who plays consistently in Europe in the last seasons, though mainly in Europa League. Still, they have been showing very good performances in this tournament and reached quite late stages of the competition. They seem to be comfortable away from home - they won in Istanbul and had a great performance at Old Trafford. I think that the team has more class than Cluj on overall as they possess many high class players: Eder, Viana, Custodio, Ruben Michael - all of them Portuguese internationals. I think they have high chance to prevail, and though the odds dropped a little, I am going with them. Braga @ 2.30
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Re: Group E > Nov 20 (Shakhtar, Juventus, Chelsea, FC Nordsjaelland) It is already the fifth round of the CL and I think it is time to pay attention to the special motivation of each team and the result the are looking for. Chelsea have been really attractive and enjoyable this season, but the stake now is immense and I feel that Di Mateo will rediscover the "park the bus" tactic from the spring campaign. A draw will surely see Chelsea through to the next round, though maybe at second place, but this should not be so critical - qualifying from this heavy group should be priority number one, plus teams like Real Madrid are expected to finish second, so place number one does not guarantee good draw. On the other hand, if Chelsea fails and Shakhtar expectedly gets three points in Denmark, this means that Di Mateo's team is out of the tournament since a draw between Shakhtar and Juventus will suit both teams in the last round at the expense of the British. This is very important point, because it surely means that Di mateo won't be taking any risks here. I am confident that he investigated thoroughly Juventus and knows that opening up in Turin might be a suicide. On the other hand, Juve's few failures last and this season, have been against good bunker defenses. They do struggle to get the job done when the bus is parked along the goal-line. Last example was this Saturday when a team with very offensive mentality - Lazio, barely crossed the half-line of the pitch, but managed to contain Juve. Juventus were much better indeed and they were unlucky at times, but they also looked very one-dimensional for most of this game and seemed to be devoid of fresh ideas how to break through Lazio's bunker. I feel that Juve will probably prevail in the end. But their price is a little overestimated, as pointed out above, mainly due to WBA loss during the weekend. Unders look like much better option here. I also feel that there's a little unrealistic approach towards the pricing of goals in this game. Too much emphasis is put on high scoring in the previous games, played by Chelsea and Juve in the tournament (as well as high scoring games of Chelsea in the PL). However, this game is different, cause it is practically a group decider, and one of the teams will be eager to get a draw. I don't think this is calculated in the price, otherwise it would not be above evens. Under 2.5 @ 2.075 (b365)
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Good job Fedar. Unfortunately' date=' there is no bet for Under at bet365, for Bulgarian League.....:([/quote'] What do u mean there is no "under" bet?! I play in bet365 and there are unders for almost all games. They just sometimes release them later - on match day, or the day before. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
CSKA - Beroe 2:0 :DCSKA-Beroe Unders every day here!!! CSKA has been struggling to score goals for a long time. They don't play their home games at their home stadium (not licensed) but in Slavia's stadium and it reduces the home advantage to some extent. The team suffers seriously from lack of creativity in the midfield. Beroe will surely go for the draw here. Since they tend to be related more closely to Levski Sofia (including some very dubious and suspicious games between the two), Beroe plays very motivated against CSKA and always gives them hard time. Last season both games went under 1.5 (two 1:0 wins for CSKA). Under 2.5 at 1.85 with medium to high stakes.
Ludogorets - Levski 2:1 :D Four out of four this round! Full house!!!3) Ludogorests - Levski The big derby of the round. The first against the second. The current champion against the contender number one. In my opinion, there is no other team in Europe like Levski which gathered so many points with such poor display of football. If you look at their stats in soccerway you would say they are the strongest team in the country. However, if you watch them, you see that they play very poor football and have been outplayed in a lot of their games so far. They were totally outplayed last week by outsiders Botev Vratsa at home for example. Levski is totally devoid of ideas in the midfield, their defense is fragile and their moral is not good. Their assets are the goal-scorer Carvalho and the good goal-keeper Iliev, who will probably miss the game because of pending suspension. Ludogorest is the most classy team in the league at the moment. Their main advantage is the weakest link in Levski's play - the midfield. Ludogerts' midfield is very fluid, dynamic and creative. They pressure high and practice modern pass and move football. I don't see how Levski's poor and old midfield can stand a chance against Ludogorets at their own stadium. Ludogorets beat them twice last year - 2:1 at home and 1:0 away, but the dominance of Ludogorets in both games, particularly the one in Razgrad, was striking. This game could have easily gone to 3-4 goal difference in favor of Ludogorets. The green eagles will be very motivated after carelessly skipping several important points. They will attack intensely from the first minute. I expect Levski to park the bus and look for counter-attacks, but they just don't have the pace to be dangerous on the break. As I said, Levski's moral is low, and I think they will easily collapse under Ludogorets' pressure. Definitely a home win for me, going with high stakes. Currently, it is priced at 2.10. I might even consider -1 AH. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Loko Sofia - Chernomorets 0:3. :D5. Loko Sofia - Chernomorets Certainly the value lies with the guests here. 2.37 is too high for a team which is better than Lokomotiv in every department and which is finally finding their form after a slow start. Chernomorets won here last season with 4:0. Indeed, their team is weakened this year, but they still have an upper hand over Lokomotiv. I might try Chernomorets with medium stakes.
Botev Vratsa - Botev Plovdiv 0:0. Bet won. :D Excellent start of the weekend. Hope for more winners to come in the other games.7. Botev Vratsa- Botev Ploddiv Unders here look like the most logical bet. The price is 1.75, which is not bad. Vratsa is the most progressing team in last month and a half, after the Italian owner and coached were kicked out of the town, and the coach and players from last year's successful season returned to the team. Their spirit is very high. They grabbed a point against Ludogorets (the first game where Ludogorets failed to win), and they outplayed Levski at their own stadium last weekend. 7 out of the last 8 games of the team since the old coach and players returned have gone under. Vratsa is a tough place to go and the home team knows how to defend and disrupt the play of the guests. 5 of the last 6 games of Botev Plovdiv have been under. Botev have a good team but their biggest problem is creating chances against packed-up defending teams. Even against total oudsiders and bankrupt team of Minyor at home last weekend, they won only 2:0 after two second half goals. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13
Here is my update for the upcoming round: Ludogorets-Levski I think that what hariton and Fedar state are terribly biased opinions. I am fan of CSKA Sofia as well and I would love to see Levski lose against Ludogorets but at the moment both Levski and Ludogorets look very very weak even though they top the Bulgarian league. Things about 3 or 4 goals win by Ludogorets are aboslute crap and really biased opinions - Ludogorets could not win against Botev Vratsa,Slavia and Chernomorets, who is much weaker than last year - there is no chance for such a win against Levski. They seem very tired and physically very weak now I believe it will be low scoring game with draw written all over this game - both teams will be too afraid to lose this one and both do not poses the quality to make serious performance. I will cover my draw bet with 1-0 CS for Ludogorets as I do not see Levski winning here. DRAW @ 3.30 with Sportingbet /QUOTE] I am sorry but you should read more carefully before commenting on others' posts. Where exactly did you see anybody suggesting a 3-4 goal victory for Ludogorets?! Just re-read it and you will see that all I was saying is that last year Ludogorets could have won with 3-4 goals difference after they missed 7 or 8 great chances and it finished just 2-1. Could you please point out where I suggested such a victory for this game?! Also the examples you are giving - Slavia, Vratsa and Chernomorets, are all away games. Extremely big difference than a home game in Ludogorets Arena. And all of them took place while Ludogorets was still first and had some drop in motivation. And, by the way, did you see any of these games, or at least highlights?! I saw the one with Slavia, and Ludogorets had like 10 good goal-scoring chances and totally dominated them. I saw the highlights with Botev, and counter also nearly 10 great chances for Ludogorets. As for Chernomorets - they are one of the toughest home teams in the whole league, no surprise for anybody to lose there, especially if they score first. There is no bias involved here - as I wrote, CSKA might very likely drop points this Sunday at home against Beroe. It is just that Ludogorets is way classier than Levski, and Levski has terrible results in away games against strong sides in the last year - losing against Litex, Ludogorets, Chernomorets, Cherno More, Lokomotiv Plovdiv - basically all the difficult away games they failed. Having lost their good goal-keeper, I don't see any department where Levski can match Ludogorets at the moment. And their moral is also crap, so I don't see them showing at least high-spirited performance. For me, this is a clear home victory. Most likely final score is 2:0. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Update for CSKA-Beroe. CSKA is missing Nuandji and Anicet. Nuandji is the young French winger who scored the goal in the derby with Levski - a fast and technical player, one of the few in the team with excellent dribbling skills and able to break through defenses. Anicet is a midfielder, a little under-performing so far, but I think still better than his substitute. This should more increase chances for under here - now CSKA cannot rely on Nuanji to dribble past Beroe's tight defense and Anicet to maintain possession in midfield.
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Re: La Liga > 17th November - 19th November
Mustafa, I have to support this one strongly! I watched a lot of Bilbao lately. A nicely playing team, but really terrible defense. I don't remember a single game where they did not make at least several ridiculous mistakes at the back. Probably one of the worst defenses in the whole league at the moment. Real Madrid, on the other hand, will welcome back Cristiano Ronaldo and Benzema. In addition, there is a rivalry between the two teams which should make the game more intense and will most likely prevent attitude like the one Real showed against Zaragoza (scoring two goals and then just sitting in the back and running in a training session tempo - they only scored another two lucky goals in extra time, but did not try any attacks for the whole second half)._____________________________ Real Madrid - A.BilbaoReal Madrid have a good goal scoring record against A.Bilbao. In their last 5 home games and last 2 away games Real Madrid has scored at least 3 goals against A.Bilbao. Real Madrid Race to 3 Goals @ 1.57 William Hill -
Re: La Liga > 17th November - 19th November
I was wondering the same. Betis have no important missings. Their H2H stats against local rivals are great. From my observation of Primera, Sevilla possess a little more class than Betis, but this does not mean anything and does not justify 5.0 for the guests.Can anyone explain why Betis are so long (currently above 5.0) to win at Sevilla in the derby on Sunday? Betis are above Sevilla and have a fair record in this fixture. -
Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 It is confirmed that Levski's keeper Iliev is suspended for the game with Ludogorets. Thus, Levski will field a complete debutante for this big derby. Surley, another huge disadvantage and reason to back Ludogorets. In contrast, Ludogorets will have back their best midfielder - Gargorov (former CSKA player and with special attitude towards Levski).
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th
I did not show much trust in your bet, but it turned out to be a great choice and the pick for night so far! Congratulations!Montenegro v San Marino under 3.5 @ 3.45 sportsbet Montenegro v San Marino under 4.5 @ 2.13 sportsbet Montenegro beat San Marino 6-0 on the road and the expectation is that they will beat them by this much or even more, however a win for Montenegro is enough for them to go past England and to the top of the group. They are without a number of key players, with the most important being Vucinic, who is suspended for this game, and Jovetic who is injured. San Marino will park the bus as they have also been beaten 5-0 by England, but they did hold them out to 2-0 until the 70th minute before conceding three more goals in the space of 10 minutes. Like the away side to do enough to hold out a depleted Montengro side, who also may be complacent coming into this game, with a win by 2 or 3 goals enough for them to move on from here. Doubt that San Marino will score, as they have not shown the ability to create chances, and given they are more likely to defend, so as to get some sort or respetaiblity for themselves, then like this to be a low scoring game -
Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Brazil - Colombia This extremely attractive South American derby is taking place late this night in New Jersey. The price on Brazil is ridiculously low - 1.66. I feel there is a lot of popular betting bias involved here. Colombia have been in outstanding form in WC qualfiers - they are in a series of 4 consecutive victories and play amazing football. They don't have any major missings and will field a full-strength squad, featuring players like Falcao, Jackson Martinez, James Rodriguez, Fredy Guarin, Pablo Armero etc. They have what is needed to upset Brazil - killing fast attacks, iron defense and potent midfield. Brazil have been playing only friendlies for the last two years. They had some impressive results lately but against very miserable sides like China and Iraq. They got good results also again Sweden (3:0), Denmark (3:1) and USA (4:1). However, they lost their sternest tests for this year 4-3 to Argentina and 2-0 to Mexico. Their olympic team which featured many players who will start today, also failed against Mexico in the Olympic final. They were also very disappointing in the hard home win against South Africa by 1:0. Pressure on coach Mano Menenzes is huge as many fans are unhappy with the tactics and think he is not getting the best out of the team. In the friendly with Argentina a month ago (where both teams played only with local league players), the stadium was chanting against Mano after disappointing performance. I honestly see it very hard for BRazil to keep clean sheet against the likes of Falcao, Rodriguez and Martinez. They also miss important defender Marcelo. And it will be very difficult to score many goals against solid Colombian defense. Hence, I take a handicap on the Colombians here. Colombia Asian Handicap +1 @ 1.725 (bet365)
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th
Good luck, but I would not recommend this kind of bet. Yes, Jovetic and Vicinic are out, but Montenegro is expected to field three forwards for this game, all of whom are also high class. They are Filip Casalica - best striker of Red Star Belgrade, Beqiraj from Dinamo Zagreb - probably the best forward in Croatian League, Delibasic from Rayo Valecano. Furthermore, I checked San Marino's away results, and they conceded less than 4 goals only three times in the last ten years. They conceded less than 5 goals in their visits only 6 times for the last ten years. Also, this argument about them getting the last three goals in the previous encounter only in the last twenty minutes is not solid enough in my opinion, because this type of teams always concede goals in the last minutes - this is because of their lack of fitness. So, those goals were not just lucky strikes in the last minutes of the game, but something very logical that happens often when these minnows play.Montenegro v San Marino under 3.5 @ 3.45 sportsbet Montenegro v San Marino under 4.5 @ 2.13 sportsbet Montenegro beat San Marino 6-0 on the road and the expectation is that they will beat them by this much or even more, however a win for Montenegro is enough for them to go past England and to the top of the group. They are without a number of key players, with the most important being Vucinic, who is suspended for this game, and Jovetic who is injured. San Marino will park the bus as they have also been beaten 5-0 by England, but they did hold them out to 2-0 until the 70th minute before conceding three more goals in the space of 10 minutes. Like the away side to do enough to hold out a depleted Montengro side, who also may be complacent coming into this game, with a win by 2 or 3 goals enough for them to move on from here. Doubt that San Marino will score, as they have not shown the ability to create chances, and given they are more likely to defend, so as to get some sort or respetaiblity for themselves, then like this to be a low scoring game -
Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Panama - Spain I don't know what is the issue with this weird trans-ocean friendlies of Spain - I guess the federation is hungry for money. You can imagine how the likes of Iniesta, Alonso, Chavi and the others will be eager to travel to Panama amidst the most intense part of the season to play a meaningless friendly game. Panama's attitude will be drastically different - for them this will be probably more important than a competitive match. Spain has played already two similar games - 2:1 victory over Puerto Rico and 2:2 with Costa Rica. Costa Rica is of similar quality to Panama, while Puerto Rico is considered a weak team in the Concacaf and is at least a class below Panama (one of the tough teams in the region, although below Mexico and USA). Spain did not impress the least in either of the games. I expect another boring monologue of short and never-ending tiki-taka and attacks taking place for 5-10 minutes each. Panama will stay around their penalty area, hoping to snatch a good result. Panamans are by the way good in the back - they got only two goals in their CONCACAF qualifying group (one of them in the meaningless last game). I think Spain will push it towards victory eventually, but don't see them scoring plenty. 1:0 or 2:0 should be it. At the moment, Bet 365 offers the bet "Spain to score less than 3 goals" for 1.72.
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Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 That's one of the toughest rounds to call so far in Bulgaria. Anyway, I will try a small preview. 1) Litex - Pirin I totally agree with the preview from mtom. Litex probably will win here, but most likely will be a very hard game with few goals. Pirin are tough and they know how to close spaces. Litex has a lot of quality but also major shortcomings - inexperience and inability to score good chances. They have struggled several times at home this and last season against teams that close themselves down well. Unders sound tempting but Pirin sometimes makes very good counter-attacking football and if they get a goal in Lovech, Litex will surely go va bank and this will open up the game. I would rather pick the asian handicap for the guests with medium stakes. 2) CSKA-Beroe Unders every day here!!! CSKA has been struggling to score goals for a long time. They don't play their home games at their home stadium (not licensed) but in Slavia's stadium and it reduces the home advantage to some extent. The team suffers seriously from lack of creativity in the midfield. Beroe will surely go for the draw here. Since they tend to be related more closely to Levski Sofia (including some very dubious and suspicious games between the two), Beroe plays very motivated against CSKA and always gives them hard time. Last season both games went under 1.5 (two 1:0 wins for CSKA). Under 2.5 at 1.85 with medium to high stakes. 3) Ludogorests - Levski The big derby of the round. The first against the second. The current champion against the contender number one. In my opinion, there is no other team in Europe like Levski which gathered so many points with such poor display of football. If you look at their stats in soccerway you would say they are the strongest team in the country. However, if you watch them, you see that they play very poor football and have been outplayed in a lot of their games so far. They were totally outplayed last week by outsiders Botev Vratsa at home for example. Levski is totally devoid of ideas in the midfield, their defense is fragile and their moral is not good. Their assets are the goal-scorer Carvalho and the good goal-keeper Iliev, who will probably miss the game because of pending suspension. Ludogorest is the most classy team in the league at the moment. Their main advantage is the weakest link in Levski's play - the midfield. Ludogerts' midfield is very fluid, dynamic and creative. They pressure high and practice modern pass and move football. I don't see how Levski's poor and old midfield can stand a chance against Ludogorets at their own stadium. Ludogorets beat them twice last year - 2:1 at home and 1:0 away, but the dominance of Ludogorets in both games, particularly the one in Razgrad, was striking. This game could have easily gone to 3-4 goal difference in favor of Ludogorets. The green eagles will be very motivated after carelessly skipping several important points. They will attack intensely from the first minute. I expect Levski to park the bus and look for counter-attacks, but they just don't have the pace to be dangerous on the break. As I said, Levski's moral is low, and I think they will easily collapse under Ludogorets' pressure. Definitely a home win for me, going with high stakes. Currently, it is priced at 2.10. I might even consider -1 AH. 4. Loko Plovdiv - Cherno More A big no bet for me. As most of Loko Plovdiv games, as a matter of fact. 5. Loko Sofia - Chernomorets Certainly the value lies with the guests here. 2.37 is too high for a team which is better than Lokomotiv in every department and which is finally finding their form after a slow start. Chernomorets won here last season with 4:0. Indeed, their team is weakened this year, but they still have an upper hand over Lokomotiv. I might try Chernomorets with medium stakes. 6. Etar - Slavia No bet here. Odds are set perfectly. 7. Botev Vratsa- Botev Ploddiv Unders here look like the most logical bet. The price is 1.75, which is not bad. Vratsa is the most progressing team in last month and a half, after the Italian owner and coached were kicked out of the town, and the coach and players from last year's successful season returned to the team. Their spirit is very high. They grabbed a point against Ludogorets (the first game where Ludogorets failed to win), and they outplayed Levski at their own stadium last weekend. 7 out of the last 8 games of the team since the old coach and players returned have gone under. Vratsa is a tough place to go and the home team knows how to defend and disrupt the play of the guests. 5 of the last 6 games of Botev Plovdiv have been under. Botev have a good team but their biggest problem is creating chances against packed-up defending teams. Even against total oudsiders and bankrupt team of Minyor at home last weekend, they won only 2:0 after two second half goals.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th
On the other hand, I have watched San Marino a few times. And believe it or not, but they are so pathetic technically that it is very hard to let them score a goal, even if you deliberately are trying so. They just cannot organize a decent attack.its even available at bigger odds at some books. like bwin has it at 5.00 match-fixing is a big issue here. I would stay away as well. Unless someone from the region can enlighten us. -
Re: International Friendlies > 2012
This is definitely the bet here! I think the bookies have attached some 0.20-0.30 extra towards "overs" just because of the "big name" Portugal. This is not fair, because the motivation will be low and the conditions can be very specific (bad pitch, full stadium, difficult climate adaption, defensive and rude play from the hosts).Gabon vs Portugal Under 2.5 @ 1.8 (Bluesquare, 888sport) 2.5/10 I like the unders here. I remember watching Gabon in the African Nations. They did well, helped by home advantage, despite having a relatively weak team with little experience at the highest level. They tend to be attracting more experienced players than they used to though, with French players of Gabon origin increasingly opting to play for them. They are a very underish side, with 15 out of the last 19 going under. Portugal meanwhile have Ronaldo and Nani out, which takes away a fair amount of their goal threat. Their defence appears to be at full strength though. As others have said on this thread, you have to question how important a trip to equatorial Africa is going to be for the likes of Moutinho, Pepe etc who will have important games at the weekend. This game will be of much more importance to Gabon, and I'd imagine from the way they play that they will keep things tight and will be very happy with a draw, which would please what I would imagine to be a large home support. We saw some bad pitches at the African Cup of Nations and with heavy rain forecast today and tomorrow in Libreville, it could be another poor pitch. At any rate it will be very hot and humid, around 27C but that will feel like more with the humidity. The most relevant recent encounter is Gabon's game against Brazil, which ended 2-0 to the Brazilians. I can see a similar game here. I think Gabon will struggle to score, yet I don't think a Portugal side lacking motivation for such a game will run riot here in difficult conditions. A lot of bookmakers go lower than 1.8 with Pinnacle at 1.67 right now. I think 1.8 is a good price. -
Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Anybody with good idea why the bookies believe that goals are so unlikely at Romania-Belgium? The price for "over 1.5 goals" is currently 1.40 which is crazy in first sight. Belgium looks full of goals, Romania can pose threat as well. It is a friendly, which means no strings attached and probably a less disciplined game with more goals. And on top of this, the bookies price it as it is some derby in Argentine Primera Division. I know bookies are no mugs and this is not some obscure league, so they definitely have something in mind when they bend so heavily towards unders.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th The odds for Montenegro-San Marino are released finally. And here comes pg_yid's favorite big lump bet - "San Marino not to score". It is priced at 1.20. The last time SM scored a goal in a competitive fixture was in October 2008. This makes 21 consecutive games without a goal. The last time SM scored away from home was in.....2001. It equals to 27 away games without a goal. Montenegro will have some important missings like Jovetic and Vucinic, but the squad named by the coach is many classes above the waiters and bank clerks of San Marino. Knowing how comfortable and confident Montenegro is in possession, I give less than 5-10% chance of San Marino to make a shoot in direction of hosts' goal. The chance of them scoring is less than 1% in my opinion, definitely not 1.20 price. However, I have only one a little paranoic worry. I now this forum does not tolerate match fixing speculation. But I am a little worried when a team from the region is concerned and the price for an away goal is 4.33. In the end, who will notice and make a big deal about a San Marino late goal if Montenegro nets 6-7 goals before that?!
Group B > Nov 21st (Arsenal, Schalke, Montpelier, Olympiakos)
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Group B > Nov 21st (Arsenal, Schalke, Montpelier, Olympiakos)
I dunno if the Greeks will win, but it is very true that they are no mugs. Oli is a very CL-experienced and classy team, and I just don't get them still being so under-estimated by bookies. Big plus for Oli is that they waste little effort in the local league where they are long way ahead of competition, so they are free to focus entirely on CL. While Schalke for example, had another very hard game in Leverkusen this weekend. I don't know if I will be brave enough to go for away victory, but definitely consider handicaps on Oli.