[WC - CONCACAF Qualification > 13 October]

Re: WC - CONCACAF Qualification > 13 October Guatemala - Jamaica Under 2.5 @ 1.66 Bet365 I know this looks very short, but I think it is very likely outcome. The situation in the group - Guatemala, Jamaica and USA competing for two spots, all three teams equal with 7 points. USA is playing vs. outsiders Antigua, while in the last game Americans face Guatemala at home. Goal difference is the main factor when teams are equal. If you offer Jamaicans to get the draw immediately, they will take the deal without any consideration. A draw here would see them for sure through to the next stage, as they play Antigua at home in the last game. On the other hand, Guatemala is in worse condition, as they must win here. However, even if they win, they will still have to get at least a draw against USA - a very challenging task. In any way, if Guatemala loses, they are practically out. This makes me believe that Jamaica surely will be defending most of the time, Guatemala won't be willing to risk everything and go va bank, thus exposing themselves in the back. Of course, they will prefer to have to play for a draw vs. USA, rather than a win, but if they lose against Jamaica, then the game in the States will be meaningless. So, I see a very tactical game, with Guatemala gradually building up the pressure against the Jamaican team. Jamaica are very athletic (yeah, no surprise) and well organized defensively. USA - one of the two best teams in the region, were very poor against them in Jamaica, where they were outplayed entirely by the host team. The return game in the States was also very difficult, and the Americans had only several clear goal-scoring chances and realized just one goal against tight Jamaicans. Jamaica's most dangerous component is their set-pieces, which I hope they won't get many in this game. Guatemala is more technical than Jamaica in my opinion, but they tend to miss a lot of good chances - against Antigua at home they scored a late second goal, before that missing many 100% opportunities. They won't get that many chances against Jamaica for sure.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October Mates, I don't wanna get involved in any hot discussion, I just want to help you make more informed decision as a bit of an insider - a contribution I would expect from any other member of this forum. I will give you my brief resume of the last two games of Bulgaria, so that you can make up your mind. Just a remark - highlights and stats are sometimes (too often actually) terribly misleading and misrepresenting. 1. Bulgaria - Italy Very good games for the Bulgarians. They impressed with lots of movement, creativity and much higher motivation than the Italians. They did have much more better goal-scoring chances throughout the whole game. However, Italians were lazy and calculative as they often do in qualifiers. They were missing some regulars and they showed many signs that they are okay with a draw here. It is important to note, that Italy got back in the game extremely easily and without any real effort just several minutes after Bulgaria took the lead. I say this because, without discrediting the effort of our team, for the whole game Italians seemed to conserve energy and to try to pass it in the most economical way. They started lazy, but once they were behind, they suddenly lifted the intensity of their game and quickly and easily got two goals. Then, they once again began lazy and economical. Despite great performance, Bulgaria seemed very inconfident in the back. I think this could be a problem against a team who attacks more often and more fierce than the Italians did. 2. Bulgaria - Armenia Ugly and tactical game. Very few real goal-scoring chances. Mainly struggle in the middle of the pitch. Bulgaria stayed better, but definitely weren't outplaying the Armenians. Bulgaria got very clear goal chances only on the last five minutes, when Armenia was minus one man on the pitch and the Armenian had gone va bank in front. Bulgarian defense this time looked solid and Armenia did not get good chances.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October

Ye are playing at home to an out of form Denmark side. Have a little bit of faith in your players. Ye have criticised Bulgaria for the past couple of months' date=' ye said Italy would beat win easily, ye said Armenia were a great bet at the prices, wrong both times. Give your country a bit of credit and support, i think ye have a good chance of beating Denmark, and at over 2/1 i think they are worth a bet. If you don't recommend it, grand, it is my money. :lol[/quote'] Sure, it is your money. I hope that you win, cause that means that I will celebrate happily on Friday evening. But allow me to know more about our team. Plus, I never said that we won't beat Armenia - all said that it is a no-bet game and it will probably finish with either a draw or a one-goal margin win for Bulgaria. Was I wrong about that?! I am not saying Bulgaria cannot win - of course we can beat the Danes, but I don't think it is such a value. This game is like tossing a coin, probably with putting a bit of weight on the Danish side of the coin. If I was obliged to bet on this game, I would probably choose the goal/goal option, because it should be around 75% likely to come through, knowing the condition of both teams and defenses, and dynamics of this game.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October Some of you might say that these historical games should have no relation to this one, but i disagree. Against Italy for example, we always have had very decent record and tight games. Last month this historical trend turn to be very informative, as once again Bulgaria was a very hard opponent for the Italians, despite the difference in class.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October

*Bulgaria to beat Denmark @ 3.05 Betfair* I think that Bulgaria are the value bet in this match. They drew 2-2 with Italy in the opening game, playing much better than a lot of people thought they would. They had a hard-earned 1-0 win against a good Armenian side last time out, and they won't fear Denmark after those results. The Dane's have not won any of their last 4 games, losing to Portugal, Germany, Slovakia, and they could only muster up a 0-0 draw at home to the Czech Republic last time out. So travelling to a Bulgaria side that is in form, i don't know why they are the favourites. I would have Bulgaria as 11/8 favourites if i was pricing it up, over 2/1 looks great value.

As a Bulgarian, I don't recommend this. Our team has improved and has very good spirit at the moment, but historically, Scandinavian sides are the worst and most uncomfortable opponent for Bulgaria. For the last 20 years, we played three competitive games vs. Denmark, lost two of them (being heavily outplayed, cause I watched and remember all of them), and got a lucky draw with a late Berbatov equaliser in Copenhagen. Against Sweden for the same term, we got one draw at home and lost 6 times. We had some good results against Iceland, but I would not count this, because Iceland is a different level.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October

Do you guys have any idea why Slovakia -1.25 home against Latvia has gone from 1.92 to 2.06 @ PinnacleSports. Slovakias is a much better team on all positions. Do Slovakia have any important players injured or something or is it becasue of the "scandal" before the latest qualifier a month ago?

It is no surprise they are priced so. Go to soccerway and check Slovakia's scores lately. Here is a small excerpt: - Slovakia-Andorra 1:0 - Slovakia - Lichtenstein 2:0 - Slovakia - Armenia 0:4 - Andorra - Slovakia 0:1 - Luxembourg - Slovakia 2:1 .............. Will you trust a team on a -1.25 handicap after they failed twice to cover it against the second weakest team in Europe - Andorra?!! And Latvia might not be something special, but they can surely put up a decent fight.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: World Cup Europe Qualification - Friday, 12 October

I guess Faroe Islands should not be priced @ 40.00 at home, sine they play decent football in front of their own fans, so might consider them on a handicap. Bosnia not to lose, based on their current form and England to destroy San Marino at home, which is an obvious thing in my opinion.

Yes, Faroe Islands are getting tougher by the day. However, I think it is kind of accounted for by the bookies - they give Sweden 1.10 for a win, while against any other minnow (except Luxembourg) the price would be lower. The Asian markets haven't come up yet, but I am sure that the bookies would lock any good and big handicap for Faroe by giving it lower price. And the price for Faroe straight win is indicator of nothing, because even if they can cause trouble for Sweden, they can never win this game in this universe - so whether it is 40 or 4000 it does not really matter. My problem with backing teams like Faroe Islands on handicap is that they are way to unpredictable. They may put good fight and lose by just one goal, but they may easily get trashed as well. I remember last month many people were suggesting similar handicap on Lichtenstein against Bosnia. We all remember what happened - I actually cannot recall the exact score, because it was way too heavy. And Sweden is also a team full of goals. I think that if you wanna exploit possible underestimation of a minnow, you better try with Luxembourg vs. Israel. Not researched well Israeli team yet, but I think that the price for their win should not be less than 1.50-1.60, while in reality it is 1.28. Probably the bookies would still be very modest on the asian handicap markets though.

[Serie B > October 5-8]

Re: Serie B > October 5-8 Jinkster, you seem not to have played much of Serie B. Otherwise, you would have known that the teams are very equal in level and you would very rarely see in this league prices lower than 1.80.

[WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October]

Re: World Cup Europe Qualification - Friday, 12 October

Really fancy Russia to beat Portugal 2.66 seems a good price. Capello seems a good fit for the Russians. Portugal struggled past Luxumbourg 2-1 and were troubled by Azerbaijan for an hour. Ronaldo hurt his shoulder but by all accounts is ok now. Just think Russia have very few weaknesses in their side. Portugal obviously have Ronaldo and a hard core of 4 or 5 other good international players but there is not much depth there after that and if Ronaldo is not on his game then they struggle.

I wouldn't be so confident about that. In my opinion, Portugal has great strength and is among the best teams in the world at the moment. The game in Luxembourg is representative of nothing, because it was obviously not taken seriously. However, I watched the match with Azerbaijan, and Portugal showed amazing display of football. I haven't seen for a long time one team to have such dominance over the opponent and to create so many clear-cut chances. Portugal had maybe 20 decent chances to score. Capello is outstanding coach, but I don't trust the Russian team for big games. Its core consists of Zenit players, who have been in a very bad shape lately. Anykov and Denisov show some abysmal performances in defense in the last games, Denisov is weak, and Kerzhakov is out of the team due to a conflict with Zenit's manager. Also, star player Dzagoev has a mediocre start of his season. In general, Russia has some defensive flow and is not a very scary team going forward as most of their games go "under". Major players of Portugal are in a wonderful shape at the moment. Cristiano, Moutinho, Pepe, Varela - they are all very hot at the moment, with only Nani disappointing from all Portugal players. I personally am confident that Portugal won't lose in Moscow. Not sure if they will manage to grab the win, but they are certainly more likely to do so than the hosts, at least in my view.

[Liverpool v Stoke > Sun 7 October]

Re: Liverpool v Stoke > Sun 7 October This is a very hard one to call. But given the excessively defensive style of Stoke and the availability of quality wide players in Liverpool's attack, I am getting oriented towards the corner handicap market. It is interesting that in the last three Premiership encounters b/n Pool and Stoke, we get the following corner scores: 11-1 (Liv.-Stoke 0:0), 12-2 (Stoke-Liv 1:0), 7-0 (Liv-Stoke 2:0); all in favor of Liverpool. When we look at the last four away games of Stoke against top teams, we see the following results: - Chelsea 13 crn. - Stoke 3 crn. (Chelsea - Stoke 1:0) - Spurs 13 crn - Stoke 1 crn. (Spurs - Stoke 1:1) - Chelsea 14 crn. - Stoke 1 crn. (Chelsea - Stoke 1:0, March 2012) - United 9 crn. - Stoke 2 crn. (United - Stoke 2:0) I think that a -5 asian handicap for Liverpool to get more corners is very likely to be successful. Asian Handicap: Liverpool Corners (-5) @ 1.825 (b365)

[Ligue 1 - October 5-7]

Re: Ligue 1 - October 5-7

This is my game of the week :) Toulouse vs Valenciennes Over 2 @ 1.806 pinnacle ,the line just keeps dropping,early in the week was available at 1.901 Both teams are in the great form and as of late have no problem scoring goals . I know french league is full of low scoring games , but i don't think this will be the one. Both clubs have an opportunity to move up the table and enough fire power to come back (level the score) , pretty even match up where not much is at risk . So we should see some goals O/U at 2 is like a gift. I have been looking at this game all week long and came to the conclusion the worst thing that can happen is a push . Cheers GL

Impressive! ;)

[West Ham v Arsenal > Sat 6 October]

Re: West Ham v Arsenal > Sat 6 October The bet here is straightforward, although at relatively low price. It is a tough and tight London derby. West Ham is defense-oriented team and also they are not among the softest guys in the league. Arsenal will be attacking much more and they have very technical and fast players. I don't see how West Ham will escape with less than two yellow warnings. WH - over 1.5 yellow cards @ 1.61 (b365)

[Man City v Sunderland > Sat 6 October]

Re: Man City v Sunderland > Sat 6 October I am backing Sunderland on handy here! City's shape has been consistently bad after the end of the season, although they managed to get many late successes. I just check the line-ups and see that City are starting with Barry and Milner. No bad feelings for these guys, but whenever they are together on the field, City's creativity, technique and speed drops twice. They might be good option when playing away from home to the likes of Real Madrid, but I don't consider them wise choice, when you must break down a well-organized and packed Sunderland's defense and midfield at home. Whenever I watched City with Milner or/and Barry on the pitch, their attacking efficiency dropped substantially. Martin O'Neil is a specialist in causing troubles to big teams both at home and away. His teams always cause threat to the favorites, because they play organized football and are stable in the back. A brief look at the coefficients tells me that bookies expect to City to score two goals. The price for over 1.5 this is 1.40, while for over 2.5 it jumps to 2.20. On the other hand, they consider it equally likely for City to concede a goal or to keep a clean sheet. I also don't think City will manage to get more than two goals, and think it is very likely that they will concede. On the other hand, I don't see an early goal here, so most likely, if City score first, I expect it to be bewteen 40-60 minute. Knowing the situation Mancini is in, and the mentality he's been showing lately, I am confident that he wants to get the victory at any price and with any result. All that matters for him this afternoon is three points, so it is very likely that he will bring his team back if they take the lead after the first half. Sunderland +1.5 @ 2.00 (b365)

[Group F > 4 October (AIK Solna, Dnipro, Napoli, PSV)]

Re: Group F > 4 October (AIK Solna, Dnipro, Napoli, PSV) I definitely jump on the PSV bandwagon. Not much to reason here - I just don't believe that a fully motivated, very strong home team and full of goals like PSV can be stopped by a second squad side which is totally focused on its domestic league. That's exactly where I see value in this very unpredictable tournament - betting on teams with high motivation against teams with second thoughts about Europa League. I see a comfortable 2-0 victory for the Dutch, but stick with normal home win. PSV 1.87 @Bfair

[Group J > 4 October (Lazio, NK Maribor, Panathinaikos, Tottenham)]

Re: Group J > 4 October (Lazio, NK Maribor, Panathinaikos, Tottenham)

Lazio -1.5 @ 2.48 pinnacle Lazio did very well in going to White Hart Lane and leaving with a 0-0 draw against Tottenham where for much of the game they were on the back foot but showed some class in patches to suggest that they should be too good here. Maribor did beat Panathinaikos at home 3-0 but the Greek side is pretty average and while the Slovenian side has been scoring goals, not too confident in them doing well on the road, as watched some of their game against Dinamo Zagreb in the CL qualifiers, and they were not that impressive losing both games to them. Lazio are likely to rest Ledesma and Klose up front but Maribor are without an important defender Arghus who is still suspended from the Dinamo game. Lazio have the class edge and given that they have just played their toughest game in the group and got a point from it, they will be looking at three points here to move to the top of their group with a win here

I am going straight against your bet here and suggest a +1 asian handy on Maribor. It is not just the 3:0 win of Maribor that is impressive about this team. They are one of the teams in the best form in Europe in the moment. Indeed, in a weaker league, but their dominance and consistence is so impressive. The team played well in CL qualifiers as well, but was unlucky against Zagreb- and I am saying it because i watched both games and think that Maribor played very well and could have easily qualified for the CL. The Slovenians are definitely a very tough nut to break. I think even if they lose, it will be very difficult for Lazio to win by a margin. Maribor are solid in the back, and they are very likely to get a goal at Olimpico, which will make this bet a very likely winner. Lazio is not taking this tournament completely seriously - they will try as hard as possible to qualify for CL. The crowd is not expected to be more than 10-15 K, which will make the stadium look quite empty. Resting some key players makes Lazio more vulnerable. Lazio shows often problems at home against mid-table Serie A sides and underdogs, which are at the level or even below Maribor. I feel that here we may see an upset, but since I am a more conservative player, I will take the Asian option on Maribor. Maribor + 1 AH @ 2.080 (b365)

[Group G > Oct 2 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)]

Re: Group G > Oct 2 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)

I'm not anti Celtic. I actually backed Celtic on Saturday away to Motherwell if you read the Scottish thread, I posted in there showing my support for them.. Just trying to make a living mate. In the Scottish league they are a great team, but In Champ league they really are gonna struggle. PLease dont be offended. Its a gambling forum not a Supporters forum. Also I didnt write this .: I did not say Celtic are Rubbish and that they will get hammered. I just said Spartak will win..

I am not a Celtic supporter, but I just wondered what is this large-scale dismissive attitude towards Celtic in these threads. They may not be world class, but they don't seem to be much worse than in previous years, when they were a tough nut to break. They might easily finish above Spartak in the end, and they have some chance, though smaller, of qualifying.

[The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

....

Mate, thanks for proving to me that one cannot become a pro-better by winning consistently on 96 coefficient multiples. :rollin I was just curious when the guy will "mention" the wizard tipping site which made him a millionaire. As I said, I strongly suspect that this is a well-known old acquaintance for this forum. He used to call himself "Common Sensei", talk tones of bull*hit, say "lol" about ten times in each his post, and brags continuously about his amazing betting skills. The guy now has a website, where he charges quite good money for membership. Where members get tips like "over 0.5 goals" and "under 5.5 goals". :notworthy

[The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. If you are here just for the bet stated, then I see absolutely no reason why you need to be bragging about your big betting success. Actually, you better stay low and quiet, and brag only after you grab pinkisntwell's money. I still don't see how you would put 1,000 pounds on a six-way ante-post accumulator. Just does not make any sense, unless you are some betting magician.

[The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Last season I stood to win £96,000 from Coral if Blackpool won the play-off final. Thus I bet over £40,000 on west Ham. I reckon I could have got as much as £50,000 or even more on BUT,heres the point.... in my opinion West Hams price was poor value and I have no doubt that the bookies agreed.....so theres no problem betting large amounts if the bookies believe the bet isn't value.

Numbers are really making us give you HUGE RESPECT, but could you please elaborate more on other details like the odds you have taken on Blackpool?! Should have been not more than 10 ante-post, which means that you placed at least 10K pounds on the prospect that Blackpool would qualify. And how exactly your reached this level of certainty that would allow you to invest these money on Blackpool in one of the most unpredictable leagues over the course of one season?! You got some sort of magic system or you are some genius of football analysis?!

[The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Moggis, hey, Common Sensei, is that you?! :lol Mate, no offense, but I get the feeling that you have been giving us too much crap talking. I myself, like you, have also won millions of dollars, making bets in retrospective. :lol If you want to impress somebody on this forum, please, post your "pro" bets in advance, not afterwards.

[Group G > Oct 2 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)]

Re: Group G > Oct 2 (Barcelona, Benfica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow) Some people are going to far with this anti-Celtic bias. Since July there has been constant rants in these threads about how terrible Celtic are, and how likely they are to lose. In fact, Celtic has had quite good Euro campaign so far, only failing to grab the victory once - against Benfica at home. The team has some good players and has substantial experience. Spartak might be better, but they are not convincing at all. How many CL or Europa League group phases did they have in the last five years?! How many really good players they have?! Are they consistent in the Russian league?! This game will be tight. Probably will go Spartak's way, but definitely not an easy call.

[Group A > Oct 3 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)]

Re: Group A > Oct 3 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Kyiv has lots of difficulties scoring goals. However, Zagreb are very poor defensively. They so rarely manage to get clean sheets in Croatia and often concede more than 1 goal, although they are the strongest team in the league by far. Dynamo absolutely has to win this game if they want to be contenders for passing through. They have the necessary push - a new "old" coach - living legend Blokhin. The stadium will be packed and the support will be good. There won't be any underestimation, because Kyiv's performance so far has been below standards and they have no reason to underestimate. Dynamo Kyiv all the way!

[Group A > 4 October (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys)]

Re: Group A > 4 October (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys)

Some slightly strange activity on Betfair in the Anzhi v Young boys game. A lot of money came in within a few minutes looking to lay Anzhi and lay Young Boys. So somebody may know something. Might not be significant but can never be to carefull with the russian sides. Anyhow i am backing the draw just in case at 5.5 Bwin. Where there is smoke there is sometimes fire.

Sorry, but people who do "toto nero" surely won't use Betfair for this purpose. Here we could speak about millions of euros, and on Betfair sometimes it is difficult to match a few hundred bucks.

[Serie A - September 25-27]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Dylan, you have been providing very good feedback on Serie A thus far. Keep the good job going!

[La Liga > September 22-26]

Re: La Liga > September 22-26 For f*ck sake, mate - that was NOT easy at all!!! Real is still so far away from being in shape and a reliable big money winner. They were so sloppy in defense before the second goal came in - it was a pure luck the hosts did not score. Ronaldo was absolute sh*te - totally crappy and disinterested for most of the game. Benzema was also careless as hell, Modric is still disoriented in his new team. Only three guys were playing decently for Real tonight - Essien (great!), Marcelo and Cassilas. My advise - don't bet your money on Real until they get in shape. They are vulnerable at the moment. I ain't sure at all they will manage to overcome Deportivo in the weekend.