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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Spain v France > June 23 Тwo bets for me here... 1. Highest Scoring Half: 2nd @ 2.10 Not much complicated reasoning about that. From my observation, I have seen that in knock-out stages of these tournaments it is more likely to have more goals in the second half (rather than equal goal in both halves or more in the 1st). After a quick look at the WC 2010 and Euro 2008 knock-out stages, I see that in 12 out of 23 games (more than 50%), second half was more goal-scoring. If I bother to take into account games between relatively equal and very strong sides as Spain and France are, then probably the percentage will rise. At a price of 2.10, it seems that bookies believe it is less than 50% likely that the 2nd half will produce more goals. I see some value here and I am picking this. 2. То Qualify: France @ 3.25

  2. Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

    Not really. If Germany win two matches 1-0 in a row' date=' i don't go along and back 1-0 in the next match. If Everton win two games on the spin, i don't go and back Everton in the next game solely for that reason. If Rooney scores first in his last 2 matches, i don't back him for the next one for that reason. If Ferdinand is booked 2 matches in a row, i don't back it in the next match for that reason. Germany could easily score in the first 30 minutes against Greece, but to say it is very likely because they scored in the first 30 minutes in their previous matches is not great reasoning for me.[/quote'] Mate, I think you are being a bit too arrogant, and besides, your arguments lack common logic, so a little humility won't harm you. It is not rocket science to understand that if Germany statistically scores early very often at big tournaments and particularly against lesser sides, it means that probably it is not a lottery coincidence, but that the Germans like to start games very quickly. Excuse me, but your examples are very stupid, mildly said. First, we don't speak about the last two games (quote: "If Rooney scored first in the last two games), but basically analyzed all the games of Germany in WC 2006 and 2010, and Euro 2008. And if Rooney tends to score first in, say, 60% of the games, that it is a bloody good bet to pick him at 2.05. Don't you get it now or you need extra explanation?! Mustafa, btw, followed a similar strategy with Man City at the Premiership - he used to pick "more goals to be scored in the second half", and I think this bet was particularly successful over the whole season (I think it was about 80% success rate at coeff. equal to at least 1.80). According to your "arguments", if Man City scores more in the second half for, say, 5 games, then it is just a coincidence from which you cannot draw any conclusion, and it does not have anything to do with particular style, tactic and playing habits. Well, if you thought so, you'd have been damn wrong and losing lots of money this season. Please, reflect twice (at least) before ridiculing other people's arguments and strategies, because what you are saying does not make much sense.
  3. Re: England v Ukraine June 19th

    Just cast your mind back a few years........didnt GREECE win this tournament by playing negative/defensive football,and CHELSEA did the same in winning this years CL?? Actually i would have preferred England to play SPAIN,solely because SPAIN are one dimensional tip tap,play 1000 passes before they can score a goal,they cannot/will not play any other way, if you set properly,stay rigid and organised,you can hit them on counter attack as CROATIA nearly proved.SPAIN only scored as CROATIA knew at the time they had to chase the game and score themselves. Italy play a similar way to ENGLAND,so i feel it will not be as easy for ENGLAND to hit ITALY on the break,but the positive for ENGLAND is BALATELLIl he is a liabilty for ITALY it is more than possible for him to have a shocker of a game and get sent off[has happened a few times this season]. Not saying for one minute ENGLAND will win E2012,but playing negative/defensive football DOES win major tournaments.
    All I mean is that while negative football may be okay, or even a necessity, when you play against a more classy side or at least somebody at your level. Negative football against a less classy side means that you are walking on a very thin ice. And that's exactly what England did yesterday - going out of the tournament was very, very close
  4. Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Greeks are not bad, but they are at most an average team. No disrespect to anyone, but they qualified from the Mickey Mouse group of this tournament, and they did it with enough luck. Their defense is okay, but it is nothing special. Whenever they had been put under serious pressure, they looked chaotic and vulnerable, with the exception of the second half vs. Russia, but with the important note that it was mainly due to Russians' weakness when they must nick a goal against a very dense defense (and whoever follows Russia and have watched some of their qualifiers and friendlies, and in particular, the home qualifier vs. Eire and the friendly vs. Lithuania, knows what I'm talking about). It is worth noting that all of the Greek goals in this tournament came after severe defensive mistakes - Szceszny and Cech missing easy balls, and the Russian defender doing a big blunder. I don't think it will happen once again. Otherwise, Greeks were sympathetic offensively for two halves in the group games - 2nd half vs. Poland and 2nt against Russia. Other than these, they did not pose any threat. I always notice that for big surprise to take place (and Greece qualifying would be considered such), the underdogs must have a very good goal-keeper. I don't think that Greece has a remarkable goalie or something. Finally, Euro 2004 was a miracle that happens once in life-time. Now everybody knows the trick of the Greeks (well, maybe except for Russia) - defend, defend, and try to nick a winner from set-piece or a defensive mistake. I see a comfortable victory with class for the Germans and 2:0 seems like the most likely scoreline.

  5. Re: England v Ukraine June 19th

    .... I would go for England AH (-0.5; - 1) at 2.350 (Bet365),because I think there is a substantial chance that the English will get a more convincing victory. And even if they win by one goal, this bet would still be successful.
    My bet partially won. But after watching the game, I say it was a bad pick and I wouldn't do if this game is played once again. It seems that Old Woy cannot get away of his annoying, negative, mid-table style of play, with which he managed to put Liverpool close to relegation. I just cannot find a decent explanation how an English team with so much more class in it, would stay so deep in defense against Ukraine and have the meager and shameful 42% possession. The Ukrainians could have easily scored many times against an English national team, which played like Fulham away. Nothing good awaits England in the second phase with such chicken attitude from Old Woy.
  6. Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

    It's obvious that Germany won't have much trouble qualifying to the semi-final, but @ 1.33 there is no value in my opinion. So, I will focus on goals market. Germany tend to score most of their goals in the first half, especially before the 30th minute. In their last 2 games they scored on 24th minute against Holland and on 19th against Denmark. I don't think that Greek defense is stronger than Holland and Denmark, and moreover I expect them to defend for the most part of the game trying to score from set-piece or counter attack. If Germany play the way they did in their previous games I can see them scoring a goal in the first 30 minutes without much trouble. Germany Goal: up to and including 30th minute @ 2.05 William Hill
    Good pick, Mustafa. I'd like to add that besides the last two games, Germany do love to score early in elimination phases. As far as I remember (I will check the exact figures later and get back with more precise info), they scored before the 30th minute in every elimination game in South Africa, except for semi-finals (vs. Spain). Two early goals vs. England and Argentina, and one against Uruguay. Moreover, in 2008, they also scored early goals against Portugal (1/4 final) and Turkey (1/2 final), and only missed to do it against Spain. In Mondial 06, they could not score early against Italy and Argentina, but those are two of the toughest teams. However, against a relatively milder side - Sweden at 1/8 final, Germany scored whole 2 goals within about 20 minutes. They scored early also against Portugal in the "small" final. It is worth noting that for all those tournaments, Lowe was in charge (either head coach, or assistant). So, Germany has the habit to start quickly and I see no reason why they won't do it against the Greeks at this price.
  7. Re: England v Ukraine June 19th I don't think that Ukraine stands a chance against England tonight. Although the Ukrainians are high-spirited team, the class differential here is way too big. My respect to Sheva, but when your best player is somebody whose best times were around a decade ago, it doesn't speak good for the team. It is obvious that England are out-classing them in each single line on the pitch. Still, football is full of surprises, but I would probably be aware of a possible surprise scenario if the Ukrainians did not have to necessarily push for victory and they were solid defensively. In this case, both are not true - Ukraine has to attack and look for goals, and their defense leaks plenty of goals and goal opportunities not only at this Euro, but also during the friendlies in the last two years. Maybe Ukraine would have chances not to lose or even to defeat England if it was a friendly or a non-decisive qualifier, but on a head-to-head clash for qualification for 1/4 finals, the concentration will be on the max, and the class differential will be almost impossible to surpass. England, on the other hand, although not shining, has been very clinical throughout these two years under Capello. Roy Hodjson shares similar philosophy and I don't think that the replacement has affected the team in any negative way. This England knows how to deal with lower sides like Ukraine. In the qualifiers, as well as in the friendlies, they were very consistent away from home. It also seems that the pressure this time upon England is not so big as it traditionally is, and the English team seems to play confidently and with ease. I would go for England AH (-0.5; - 1) at 2.350 (Bet365),because I think there is a substantial chance that the English will get a more convincing victory. And even if they win by one goal, this bet would still be successful.

  8. Re: Portugal v Netherlands June 17th

    What is this "luck factor" ? :D;)
    The luck factor is missing several clear opportunities only in the first half and conceding a goal after a mistake from the first more serious attack of the opponent. You do realize that on any other day this game would have comfortable gone to the Dutch with a handicap?! I guess you watch Euro football and you have an idea about the conversion rate of clear goal-scoring chances of Van Persie, Robben and Afelay?! Well, against Denmark, they had four or five of them only in the first half and did not score any. Comparing it to their overall performance and stats, it should be considered the "luck factor".
  9. Re: Portugal v Netherlands June 17th

    The fact that something hasn't happened a few times in a row doesn't affect the chances of it happening the next time (e.g. if a 6 hasn't been rolled after 100 rolls of a dice' date=' that doesn't change the chances of it happening this time!). [/quote'] I don't quite agree comparing it to dice throwing. My main point here is that if something very likely in football terms hasn't happened two times in a row, it would mean that either our preliminary analysis of its respective likelihood was wrong, or there was too much influence from the luck factor. And since I don't think that Holland suddenly becomes a mediocre team after two games, I think it should have been mainly the luck factor. Besides, it is reasonable to suggest that the motivation of the strong Dutch side to bounce back would be above average.
  10. Re: Portugal v Netherlands June 17th Holland @ 2.5 I follow a simple, but efficient betting logic - when a team-related event with high likelihood hasn't taken place a few times in a row, it is always a good strategy to pick that it will happen this time. The Dutch, who are among the best in the world, lost two games, scored just one goal, and did not manage to get a goal before half-time in two consecutive games. This makes me believe that tonight they will take the lead before half-time and will win the game. Another reason for me is that if this was a group opener, the coefficients for Holland's victory would be around 1.80-1.90. At 2.50 the price gap is huge. And yesterday's game between Russia and Greece showed that in betting mid-term and long-term team trends, as well as, overall team quality, should be a more solid indicator than just the last several games. Because if people had relied more on the overall performance of Greece and Russia in the past two years (very similar in terms of low-scoring and vulnerability to draws), rather than the recent striking victories of Russia against Italy and Czech Republic, they would probably have thought that Russia was highly over-priced.

  11. Re: Italy v Republic of Ireland June 18th

    Why would I do that? It is the opposite of my bet...
    Maybe because it is contrary to logic that a team, known for a solid defense, would get an early goal for a third time in a row. It is the same logic as saying that a team, known for scoring a lot and winning very often like the Dutch, won't lose for a third time in a row and won't miss to score a goal in the first half once again. Italy's low goal-scoring habits and slow introduction into the game could also add to this.
  12. Re: Denmark v Germany June 17th Just a note about the corners - I don't recommend relying on many corners for Denmark. You know that key factors for a team achieving many corners are: - attaining high number of attacks per game - developing attacks quickly - utilizing pace down the wings. Although I agree that Denmark indeed develops attacks quickly (usually just a few passes before the "final touch"), I have problems with the other two components. Denmark does not attack a lot, because they have little possession of the ball. Even if they need to push Germany for the win, they will still have little ball possession. It is mainly because of the Germany's style, focused on controlling the ball steadily - a style resembling the Spanish one, and centered around the skills and philosophy of players like Real Madrid's midfielders Kedhira and Ozil. Also, as someone mentioned before, to achieve many corners, your wingers must often outpace and outsmart the side defenders of the opponents. The difference in class in this respect is highly in favor of the German side.

  13. Re: Italy v Croatia - June 14 We are going a bit off-topic, so it is my last remark on the topic. First, claiming that "no evidence = did not happen" is very immature. You realize that it is almost impossible even for international police structures with their enormous resources and experience to get evidence about such things?! Second, you really think 2:2 was "the most probable"score? How probable is 2:2 in a random game at the Euro? According to bookies, not very probable. Third, believe me, the bookies do not take away every game they think suspicious. I will tell you about a game in the Bulgarian Premier League two months ago, which everybody knew was fixed for the home team to lose with a huge score, and I still managed to put a huge amount of money on it at a decent coefficient and earned money that could allow me to take a break from work for half an year. And this was a crappy Bulgarian football game, which was still not removed by bookies. How do u imagine they will take away a game from the Euro - even if it is fixed the market there is so huge, that they will still earn money from it in the end. Fourth, please, have a look on youtube at the goals scored at Denmark-Sweden. Then tell me again the scoreline and the easy goals were just mere coincidence.

  14. Re: Italy v Croatia - June 14

    Denmark-Sweden wasn't set up. It still finished 2-2. People seem to think there must be sort of an agreement or meeting in some underground parking lot for a score to happen. If the score is, for example, Spain 2 Croatia 1, and Croatia gets the equaliser at say the 85th minute, do you really think that the Spaniards will go all hellbent on trying to get the 3rd goal, risking the counterattack? No, they will pass the ball to each other till the final whistle. We have a precedent, Denmark-Sweden, why don't we try to learn from this match? It was played fair and square then Sweden managed to get a late equaliser at the 89th minute. Did Denmark go ape **** on trying to get the 3rd goal? No, they passed the ball amongst their defenders for 5 full minutes. What i'm trying to say is, it's obvious that they won't fix the match, and if Spain is 3-0 up, they won't just let Croatia score 3 goals, but if the score happens to be 2-2 late in the game, it will stay that way. That being said, I'm just waiting for my book to quote Spain first and Croatia second. Even if it doesn't finish 2-2 (or higher), highly doubt Italy will score more than three goals against Ireland. (Goal difference is considered if the match finishes 1-1 and Italy wins).
    Are you serious?!! Realistically, according to you, what is the chance that everybody is forecasting 2:2 before the game, and Sweden and Denmark actually finishes 2:2?!! Just a coincidence! :loon And your main argument is that the Danish did not really need to push after the score got 2:2 in the 89th minute. What kind of an argument is this?! How did it reach 2:2 in the first place?! What if they needed a 5:5 draw and they finished 5:5 - would it still be your argument that "the Danish didn't need to hurry after the Swedes equalized for 5:5"?! And you're accusing people of being delusional and believing in conspiracy theories as if it never happened in big tournaments. Have you ever heard about the Germany-Austria game from 1982 which took Algeria out of the tournament. A few years ago, a former German international confessed that after the first goal (1:0 suited both teams) in the beginning, both teams stopped playing and waited a whole game for the final whistle. Two weeks ago in the Spanish Segunda Division, Celta Vigo and Cordoba did exactly the same - a draw suited both teams and for the whole game there was not a single shoot and a single corner, and I think there were no fouls as well!!! You think it was just "coincidence"?! Saying all this, I don't claim that Spain and Croatia will finish necessarily with a high-scoring draw. I still hope that the World Champions have dignity and a lot of self-confidence, so they won't be afraid of the Croats, because both Sweden and Denmark were afraid of each other, and therefore decided to play it safe.
  15. Re: Italy v Croatia - June 14

    So, I expect a very cautious game with little opportunities. My pick here would be Under 1.5 goals: 2.62
    Bet lost! Don't think it was a bad one, given that after the Italian goal, there were almost no other scoring opportunities. However, I must admit that I committed an unforgivable for anyone considering himself a serious better mistake - I did not take into account the fact that if Italy fails to win, their fate is totally not in their hands anymore, hence they would be supposed to be more open. I was thinking that if they manage to beat Ireland with enough goals in the last match, they would qualify, but I was wrong.
  16. Re: Sweden v England - June 15 A question for you - does anybody find a "ball possession" market?! I think it could be a good bet to choose Sweden to have more possession if the coefficients are fine. As I like F.C. Liverpool, I watched nearly each game during Roy Hodjson short time at Anfield. His style is very consistent and predictable: tight defense, midfield very close to the back line, attempt to finish off attacks quickly. The outcome was that Liverpool was systematically being dominated in terms of possession, even against smaller sides at Anfield. From what I've seen in the two England's games under Hodjson (friendly with Norway, and 1:1 with France), the style is the same as the one in Liverpool. I suppose that it is more than 50% likely that Sweden will dominate possession. If the bookies haven't caught this factor, it would be a good bet.

  17. Re: Denmark v Germany June 17th Mustafa, I do agree with you. I think that this game is very dependent on the other group match and the way it develops. I don't think the Dutch will be lagging be lagging behind in a third game in a row, and I think that there is a high probability that they will take the lead and win against Portugal. If Holland is leading in their game, it is very likely that both Germany and Denmark won't be pushing hard for the win. Live betting here might be a very good option.

  18. Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

    -The thing with live odds movement on 365 is just manipulating with a lot of mug punters who trying to make some quick money rather than sleeping at the time-just my oppinion
    I was one of the mugs not sleeping. :ok Still, it does not make much sense for me, because if so much money were bet on Panama, they would supposedly be placed before the game, or at least equally before and during the game. The thing is that the coefficient started to drop dramatically after the game had started and without any reason related to what was happening on the pitch. I am not into the conspiracy theories, but since I've seen this ****e happening so often in the Premier league of my country (Bulgaria), I always have some doubts when such things happen and non-Western European countries are involved.
  19. Re: Italy v Croatia - June 14 I think it is definitely pointing towards being very low-scoring game. Of course, at 1.57 the normal under is not an option. However, I think that "Under 1.5" at 2.62 is a very tempting value. So far it has been a very high-scoring tournament and we did not have a single "0:0", and only once we saw just one goal (Ger-Port). Usually group phases present just few "0:0" scorelines. It is interesting to see that they usually happen in the first phase of the tournament. At Euro 2004, there were two 0:0 scores in the first round. At Euro 2008, there was only one 0:0 - in the first round. In WC 2006 there were 5 0:0s, two of which were in the first round, while in WC 2010 there were another two zero scorelines in the first round. My point is that it seems very likely that this scoreline will occur tomorrow or on Friday, and this game looks like a favorite for it. Italy is famous for their tight and low-scoring play. Croatia, on the other hand, in their last two big tournaments (WC 2006 and Euro 2008) played a total of 7 games in which 12 goals were scored by both teams - less than 2 per game. What is probably the most important factor for my reasoning is that both Italy and Croatia must NOT lose, if they want to keep their chances good before the last games. If Italy loses, it means they are practically out of the tournament (given Spain's expected win over ROI). On the other hand, if they get a draw, they have very decent chances to go through if they win against the outsider in the group. A defeat for the Croatians will mean in order to qualify, they will have to win against Spain, which is like mission impossible. While in case of a draw against Italy, they might qualify with another draw vs. Spain or even if they lose against the Spanish. So, I expect a very cautious game with little opportunities. My pick here would be Under 1.5 goals: 2.62

  20. Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF I watched most of Panama - Cuba (till 60th minute) as well. I must say it was a very weird game. In the first half, Panama was just passing thousands of times far away from Cuba's goal. They had only one chance to score. And here comes something very curious. I was following the movement of coefficients live on bet365, with the intention of probably stepping in at some point. Contrary to any logic, in the first half as time was passing by, the coefficients for Panama's victory, Panama's handicap, and Total Goals were falling rather than rising as common sense would suggest. It was even more weird, because Panama did not have any chances on goals and wasn't really pushing. The game started with 1.20 for Panama win, which by the 25th minute had fallen to 1.06 (?!!!!). It started to rise once again just after the 30th minute. At some point around the 20th minute, the coefficient for -2 AH Panama was 1.25, i.e. nearly the same as it was for simple host victory in the beginning. If anybody has any reasonable explanation for these movements, I would appreciate.

  21. Re: Holland v Germany - June 13 An interesting fact to share with you: Germany tends to play bad in their second games in group phases of big tournament, in contrast to the starting games, where they excel. In the last two tournaments they lost their second games after winning with a clean sheet in the first ones. In South Africa they lost to Serbia (0:1), after defeating Australia by 4:0, and in Euro08, they lost to Croatia, after beating Poland by 2:0. Before that, they were also very unconvincing in their second games. In the home World Cup in 2006, they barely managed to win against Poland with a last-minute goal from Close (1:0). In 2004, they failed epically after drawing 0:0 against the total outsiders Latvia, after they had very decent first game (1:1 against Holland with a late Dutch equalizer). In Japan/Korea in 2002, they didn't manage to win against Ireland in their second game (1:1), after crushing Saudi Arabia with 8 goals in the first. I don't know if this facts are going to make any difference tonight. Yet, managing to win only one (at home, in the last minute) of their second group games in the last five tournaments could mean something.

  22. Re: Denmark v Portugal - June 13

    .......... So, to sum it up - I favor slightly Portugal to win, but am not happy with the price, given the risk with the very unstable Portuguese defense, vulnerable to counter-attacks. On the other hand, I think that either the over or "both to score" are very likely here. At values of respectively 2.20 and 2.00, I think that these are decent deals.
    Stats don't lie. I love to have my bets come through before half-time, so that I can calmly enjoy my drink. :p
  23. Re: Denmark v Portugal - June 13

    Can't believe some guys are putting money on Denmark, better give those money to charity :p Those guys cant play footie. Portugal will win this one with ease. I'm not sure how they gonna stop Kristina. Portugal to score three goals or more 3,80 bet-at-home
    Mate, be aware - this game might be fixed as well! :loon After all, Mossad, the Rockfeller, CIA and the aliens ain't no sleeping. :p P.S. If only betting was so easy and plain simple as it is in your world, Bronskie - just pick up "the favorite on book" and u always win unless the game is fixed. We would all be millionaires.
  24. Re: Denmark v Portugal - June 13 Let's see some facts about these teams. Game Attitude: Portugal needs victory and nothing else, while the Danes will be more than happy with a draw. However, I have rarely seen Denmark "parking the bus" - it is just not their style. Besides, against Holland the Danish defense was far from solid and on any other day Robben, Van Persie and co would have nicked a few goals. So, I expect a very open game, with Portugal dominating the possession and Denmark exploiting each chance for a quick counter-attack. Head-to-Head: These two teams faced each other in the last two qualifiers. However, the games were not very conclusive, although they show Danish advantage: 2-1-1. But we have to take in mind that one of the dynamite victories was won with two goals in extra time (2:3 in Lisbon). The clear patter which we can trace is about high scoring: 14 goals were scored in these 4 games b/n the two sides (3.5 per game). Group-Stage Performance: Portugal are definite masters of passing the groups stages: in the last twelve years they qualified for each big tournament and they failed to pass through the groups only once (WC 2002). Since then they have four consecutive successful campaign, in three of which they won the group (only in WC 2010 they were second to Brazil). Contrary, Denmark for the same period passed the group stages twice, one of which at Euro 04. The Danes failed to qualify for two tournaments (2006, 2008) and failed epically in the group stage in South Africa. Most Recent Performance: We see high-scoring habits for both teams. In the last qualification campaign Denmark failed to score at least two goals only three times: 1:3 away to Portugal, 1:1 away to Norway, 1:0 home to Iceland. They never failed to score at least a goal! In the friendlies in the last two years, Denmark failed to score only once: in the loss against Russia this February. Portugal failed to score a goal in their qualifying campaign two times: in the first play-off at Bosnia (0:0) and away in Norway (0:1). The Portuguese also had two 0:0 friendlies preceding Euro 2012 - against Poland and Macedonia. On the other hand, the Iberian side had quite a few substantially high-scoring games over the past two years: 6:2 vs. Bosnia, 5:3 at home to Iceland, 4:0 away at Cyprus, 4:4 at home to Cyprus, 4:0 in a friendly vs. Spain at home. Recent Game of Either Sides, Expected to Bear Similarities to this Fixture: Portugal - Turkey 1:3 (Friendly, about ten days ago). I watched this game and I expect very similar attitude and play fashion at the pitch tomorrow. Turkey is similar class to Denmark, and the Turks against Portugal preferred to stay back in defense, were very sharp and dangerous on the counter-attack, and showed vulnerability at the back - all features which I expect to see from the Danish. Portugal was pushing very hard in this game, something which also makes me draw similarities with tomorrow's derby. Although Turkey won in Portugal, the Iberian side had so many clear opportunities during this game. They were heavily dominating the flanks and at some point their pressure was total and crushing for long periods of time. If the same pattern repeats against Denmark, I think we must expect some goals in both directions. So, to sum it up - I favor slightly Portugal to win, but am not happy with the price, given the risk with the very unstable Portuguese defense, vulnerable to counter-attacks. On the other hand, I think that either the over or "both to score" are very likely here. At values of respectively 2.20 and 2.00, I think that these are decent deals.

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