Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 26 July Last week I tipped the "under" for my favorite CSKA Sofia vs. Mura in Slovenia. It came out very easily at very good price. Now there is the return game. Last time I told you that CSKA just sold their one-man forward star - Brazilian J.Moraes, and they are left upfront with just one man - Irishman Kilian Sheridan. Well, he got red-carded in Slovenia, so now basically CSKA will be playing without a striker. In the first game, the situation was the following: Mura staying in defense and rarely crossing the mid-field, CSKA retaining about 65% of possession, nevertheless, they did not manage to get a single good change on goal for the whole game, although they were man up for about half and hour, before Sheridan got his card. I honestly don't see the game in Sofia as being very different than that one. Of course, the home soil and the crowd will make some difference, but I hardly see CSKA scoring more than a goal, at most two. CSKA Sofia - Mura: Under 2.5 @ 1.95 (365)
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July I obviously miscalculated some factors about Vardar - BATE game. But in the end that's one of the main reasons I would write such reviews in this forum - to be corrected when I get something wrong. :-)
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July
Mate, btw, are you sure about that?! It is weird, because in Macedonia they never gather a lot of crowd on the stands, and I know that well, because I am from the region. Maybe you got that info from Macedonian source?! Because they are famous, actually infamous, for exaggerating big time about anything - from football to history. I am curious to check that out because I bet there won't be more than 5-10 thousand, despite what the locals claim and boast.On the other hand, Vardar will be only without Bojovic (reg df) again. The greatest Macedonian club will have a huge support (over 30 thousand fans "Komiti"). -
Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July I did not have the idea that BATE are missing so many players. My bet was mainly based on the assumption that BATE just took it slowly in the first game and 3:2 does not really represent the difference in class. But so many missing players would make this no bet for me. Thanks for the information, anyway.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July Two suggestions for tonight: 1. Vardar - BATE BATE @ 1.83 (365) Here's the away form of BATE in the Bel. League this season: L - W - W - W - W - W - W - D. The draw is vs. second placed contender Shahtyor, and the loss was the first game of the season. These are the away results of BATE in the preliminary rounds of Euro tournaments in the last five editions: Makedonija - Bate 0:2, Ventspils - Bate 1:0, Litex - Bate 0:4 a.e. (0:1), FH Iceland - Bate 0:1, Copenhagen - Bate 3:2, Maritimo - Bate 1:2, Linfield - Bate 1:1, Ekranas - Bate 0:0, Sturm Graz - Bate 0:2. TOTAL: 5W - 2D - 2L. Vardar indeed shows good home form in the local league, but as I said last week, they are inexperienced in Europa and lower class than BATE (well, at least "supposedly", I must say after Salzburg - Dudelange yesterday). BATE's favorite style is to stay back in defense and hit with quick counter-attacks (and I am saying this from personal eye-witness impressions from this team). I think that the current coefficient is affected a lot by the performance in the first game, when Vardar almost won in Belarus. Had it been a first game, I feel that the price for BATE would have been around 1.50. 2. Dinamo Zagreb - Ludogorez Highest Scoring Half: Second @ 2.05 (Bet365). I am basing this prediction almost entirely on the reputation of Ludogorez of being slow-starters and pushing the gears later on in the game. In the spring half of the season, this bet would have won in 11 out of 16 games for Ludogorez. I agree that maybe this is a normal percentage, given that it is ex-ante more expected for any game to sport more goals in the second half, but you should be aware that in this figure I include also home games against outsiders where Ludogorets finished their job easily in the beginning and rested later on in the game. If I exclude those game, the stats will be more impressive. The score in the first game 1:1 could also contribute to this bet, because I expect a very careful start for both teams. Dinamo would certainly be a little afraid to open up, after they were outclassed by margin in the first game, and managed to grab a lucky draw in the end, hence, I expect they will respect their guests. Ludogorets will not be pushing early on, knowing them well, I am pretty confident they will not open up as well before the second half.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July I am surprised nobody yet mentioned Sheriff Tiraspol - Ulisses Yerevan. Sheriff Clean Sheet with Betfair is 1.96! For me this sounds like a better option than Basel's clean sheet. A lot was talked in the forum about Armenian teams inability to score goals. Now they play away to a superior team with good defense (conclusion based on their league performance). The score in the first game was just 1:0 for Sheriff which implies they will not be negligent in defense as they could have been if it was already completely decided. I watched some part of the first tie (i had a bet on Sheriff's victory), and Ulisses looked far from scoring and put much more effort in defense. I see this game as a Sheriff's victory ranging from 1:0 to 3:0. Given the low odds and the defensive reputation of Armenian sides, I will go for the home clean sheet with relaively good amount of money.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 26 July Guys, I don't wanna push back the argument about the first game, but I just want to warn you to be careful with this one. I know punters will be seriously attacking handicaps for Vitesse, but I am not so sure they will come easily. For me, nothing is certain in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if Loko Plovdiv's owner surprisingly reverses his initial decision to step back. It is all very weird. My advise for this game is to go for "total goals" scored, because I have the feeling that it is going to be a high-scoring game once again. Also, despite the supposed damage to Loko Pd's firepower, maybe you could try with smaller amounts "Loko Pd to score a goal", or even "Loko Pd goals: above 1.5". They sound unlikely at first sight, but I have a feeling they might come up.
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Re: Fulham v Norwich Saturday 18th August 2012 I don't want to spam a non-Liverpool thread, but I think people tend to forget/disregard several important factors about L-pool performance: - With all due respect to Kenny and Roy, but over the last two years Liverpool had two old, conservative, non-dynamic managers with out-dated views. They both decreased the potential level of the team considerably. While Rodgers is still a mystery, he is young and prospective, and if he turns out to fit well at Anfield, this will automatically bring Liverpool's performance, relative to past two seasons, significantly. - Last year, Liverpool was the team that hit the wood-work the most. Besides that, the team was notorious for missing huge amount of clear-cut chances, especially at home. While this fact definitely also involves some degree of lack of ability, it also means a lot of misfortune. If Liverpool's luck turns good this season, it could easily means +10-15 points for the team. - Last season, several key players at Liverpool underperformed big time. And I mean players who proved high class and potential in the Premiership before. If they at least approach their expected level of performance, it would bring a great bust for the team. All I want to say is that while Fulham or even Spurs have relatively little potential to improve their present level (which for Spurs is higher than Liverpool's at the moment), Pool has a lot of potential for improvement. Of course, there is no guarantee as to whether this potential will be realized. But such total underestimation is very undeserved and unfounded.
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Re: Fulham v Norwich Saturday 18th August 2012
Lol - you have been equal in points with Pool for one (1) season, and you already consider yourselves being the same level with them?! I think a lot of underestimation for Pool is going on in this forum...I would be happy with him going to Arsenal. I just don't want him to go to LFC as we finished equal on points with them last season and he claims to want to leave on the grounds of wanting Champions League football. -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July Just to mention that at the moment the supporters of Lokomotiv Plovdiv are rioting against the owner of the team. Their main motto for the protest is "We want to watch football, not THEATER". It happened after Vitesse game, which was supposed to be a very decent result for Lokomotiv, which by the way, play in euro-tournaments once every ten years. The owner is about to leave the team under the pressure from fans, although he gave them the best season in terms of results for the last 8 years. So, it is obviously not just me - the loon, who believes there is something about Loko-Vitesse.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July
I will categorically say no Dutch team will be guilty of match fixing' date=' certainly not in a Europa league game! Not being naive, just wouldn't happen.[/quote'] HastGill1, about the "certainty" regarding the Dutch team, please, check who is the current owner of Vitesse. Check what his nationality is, check whether he was in prison, check what the charges against him were..."Impossible is nothing" as the slogan says. -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July I did not lost any money on this game, cause i didn't bet on it. I don't mean to complain, I just want to warn anybody before the return game to be careful. Many weird results involving Eastern European teams lately (Sarajevo - Hibs, BATE-Vardar, Naftan - Zvezda), but about this one I am almost certain.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July Mates, important information about a game that took place today - Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Vitesse (4:4). I am pretty sure that this game was fixed for betting purposes. I got some information about an hour before the game but refused to believe it, so neither had a bet on it, nor wrote about it on the forum. I watched the game, nevertheless, and I am absolutely confident that it was fixed. Lokomotiv Plovdiv is known in the local football folklore as being the most suspicious team for betting deals and their owner is known under the mocking nickname "Toto". You can check all their friendlies this summer - they were all full of goals, but I did not expect that they will do it in the euro tournaments as well. You can look for some video highlights and pay special attention to the way goals were scored. From now, I can assure you that the next game in Arnhem will be also full of goals (definitely over 3.5). These two teams are shame for the beautiful game. If UEFA cared about fairplay, they should initiate investigation about this game and kick both cheating teams out of European football tournaments.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July
This one I like already very much. :hope Osijek are mediocre team in the Croatian league who happened to qualify for Europa because they reached the final of the cup (where they lost without much difficulty from Dinamo). I am only a bit worried because of Kalmar's defeat in Cliftonville and their bad domestic shape. But, on overall, I think it is at least 50% chance that they don't lose the game.I know it very well mate' date=' the fans (Torcida) are chatted sort of motivational speech to players last night. But problem is that players are very young and inexperienced, and Torcida can make even more pressure on them.[b'] NK Osijek vs Kalmar Same story here, home team is in a difficult situation and guests are playing regularly in their league. Several important players have gone from Osijek and Sorsa (key player) is missing for this meeting. Away side seem like a better team with some good foreign players. They will be without important absences, so if they overcome the temperature difference can hope for good result tonight. X2 @1.72 Stan James low stake -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July
If you decide to take this bet, you should have in mind also that on the typical day the atmosphere at the stadium in Split is very hot-tempered and hostile. The stadium is usually full and the support from the stands for the home-team is fierce. I myself wouldn't touch this game.Hajduk Split vs Skonto Riga Croats are in very difficult situation: club hasn't yet got new chairman, there is no funds and thus team is very weakened. In doing so, Hajduk was under suspension by the Football Association and they didn't played any official friendly match this summer. On the other hand, Skonto play regular season in Latvia (2nd place after 19 rounds), so from that aspect they have the advantage. However difference in temperature may be a problem for them since in Split is nearly 15 degrees warmer than in Latvia. Hajduk is probably better team here, but they will be with the youngest and most inexperienced players in any European game ever for them. Skonto will play very defensively and I expect a favorable result for them. In any case, there is no value for home win. Skonto +1 AH @2.20 bet365 min stake -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July Mura - CSKA Sofia Under 2.5 @ 1.75 (Bet365) In my opinion a very high likelihood bet (if I use the etiquette of the forum, I would rate it about 8-9 betting points). CSKA Sofia is my team and I am almost 100% informed about anything related to it. They just sold yesterday their best player and key striker - Junior Moraes. His importance for the team is similar to the importance of RVP for Arsenal, so it is no wonder than often people said that CSKA is a one-man team. I don't think that the bookies have yet reflected it in their price, so maybe it is a good idea to make quick moves on this bet. Right now, CSKA is left with just one forward - Irishman Killian Sheridan, who returns from a one-year loan after his weak performance in his first term with the team. So, basically a drop-out from the team is the only attacker to rely on for this game. CSKA in the spring did not score lost of goals, despite the presence of its Brazilian star Junior Moraes. These are the number of goals scored by CSKA out of the total number of goals scored in the game for each away game of the team in the spring: 0 (2), 3 (3), 1 (1), 1 (1), 0 (1), 0 (2), 0 (1). In sum, out of 7 away games, we got 6 unders, five of which are actually under 1.5, not under 2.5. CSKA failed to score a goal in more than half of their away games. Besides that, the head coach Stoycho Mladenov, who has been coaching the team several times in the last ten years, is known for his very conservative approach towards tournament ties. So, it is almost certain from his past record that his first and main concern for the away game will be not conceding a goal. I did not know much about Mura before, but after the draw I watched their two games against Baku in the last round. Very defensive team - very tight in the back and rarely passing into the opponent half. Relying mainly on set-pieces to look for goal, and concentrating on their defense and not conceding rather than looking for a goal. For me this game is very likely under 1.5, and very certainly under 2.5.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July A little recap: Ulysses Yerevan - Sheriff Sheriff DNB @ 1.61 :) Skenderbeg (Albania) - Debreceni (Hungary) Debreceni 1.75 :( Zilina - Ironi Kiryat Shimona Zilina @ 2.00 or Zilina DNB @ 1.50 :loon AEL - Linfield AEL Clean Sheet :beer Dudelange - Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull @ 1.25 :cry:wall In sum, would have been very good round, if it wasn't for those Austrian idiots. Now, I am about even. Hope at least they will pay back next week.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July
Well, I don't know much about Vardar. But I think that BATE are far better than any Macedonian team because they participated both in CL (twice) and Europa League, and had some memorable results, especially at their stadium in Belarus, where some serious teams surrendered. No Macedonian team can brag with such results. No Macedonian team had ever played in any group phase. Vardar's last participation in CL qualifications was about a decade ago. I checked their team and transfer list and I did not see them having made many expensive transfers and having many foreign players and/or internationals. So, it must most probably mean that they are not expected to exceed much the overall level of Macedonian teams from past years. Anyway, this game looked quite strange to me. Five goals, two turn-arounds, two goals in the last minute, a Macedonian and a Belarussian team...In a weird way it reminded me about Sarajevo - Hibernian games from last two weeks.You talked about BATE but not about Vardar - so I still don't know you can say that BATE are a 'far better' side. Just because one side is dominant in their country and highly-motivated doesn't mean they will necessarily beat an opponent from another country. -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July
No live stream, mate. I know how it feels - I am following it on bet365, and whenever the marker shows "dangerous attack Linfield" my heart goes in my pants (I took the clean sheet bet).Anyone got a link for the AEL v Linfield game!? If I have to watch the rest of the game with the live updates on UEFA website I'm likely to blow my brains out.. -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July Pg_yid, good suggestions, but why u think Zimbru are more likely to lose by a margin than Gandazaar?! Zimbru seem stronger to me than those Armenians.
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July
They are far better, mate. I don't know if Belarussian sides are stronger than Macedonian (I suppose they are a little), but to use overall level of Belarussian teams to judge the power of BATE is the same as judging Celtic/Rangers by the overall strength of the other Scottish teams. I mean BATE is a different planet in the local league. Actually I was thinking whether not to take a bet on BATE, because despite their disappointments lately, they were in a great winning streak before mid-June, and I suppose they are not in a bad shape, but just slowing down a little in the local league, given the comfortable advantage they had. I guess their motivation this evening is going to be immense, because CL is a must for this team for financial reasons and for reasons of getting competition which they barely receive in their domestic championship. Yet, the odds on BATE began to fall again,after they rose yesterday. Probably will pass this bet for now and try to catch it on live betting.What makes you say this? I don't think they have ever played each other. Are top Belarussian sides better than top Macedonian sides? -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July
I guess I should answer at least for Ludogorez, having watched around 15 of their last year games. First, about "the no-striker" thing - indeed, they don't utilize heavy striker. Their attack and creative midfield consists of small and technical players, something like a micro-version of Barcelona. ;-) They change positions constantly and play the typical "pass-and-move" football. Ludogorez scored a lot of goals last season, but their scores against outsiders and mediocre teams should not be indicator. In the games against top 5 teams at home, they got the following results: 1:0 vs. CSKA, 2:1 vs. Levski, 0:0 vs. Loko Pd, 1:1 vs. Litex (two late goals), 3:1 vs. Chernomorets (however, an early goal for the guests opened a lot the game). So, on overall, it seems very likely that under 2.5 will come out of this game.What do you think about under 2.5 goals in Ludogorets - D Zagreb game? Both will play 4231 tactic and Ludo has no real striker on first line up. -
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July And one game that I somehow forgot to comment on: Ludogorez - Dinamo Zagreb. As a local guy, I have very deep insight on all Bulgarian teams playing in Europe. Ludogorez is often called "the Bulgarian Man City". They spend money like crazy - I think that last summer their spending exceeded the total spending of all other clubs in the league. They have brought experienced Bulgarian players and high-quality foreign players, most of them young and full of talent. They play very attacking, attractive, pass-and-move football. Having said all that, I am still shocked that the price for Dinamo is 2.78. Ludogorez, despite their class, have played only one (1!) season in the premier league of Bulgaria for all their history. Basically, over the course of two years, they jumped from third division to winning a treble of trophies this year. Of course, they never played in Europe. They are good, but I don't see how they are gonna match an experienced side with lots of CL group-phase games. The price for Dinamo should not be more than 1.80 in my view, and this is probably the biggest booking price mismatch for this round (around one whole unit).
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 19 July
Absolutely true, and one other thing that is worth mentioning - I have noticed that Belgian teams tend to get very nasty against weaker opponents. For instance, in this summer friendlies, Belgian elite sides regularly thrashed their opponents from third or fourth level by 6-7 or more goals. In similar circumstances, team from German and Austrian Bundesliga, have been much more merciful to their opponents.Think someone has got their sums a little wrong on Betfair in the Differdange Gent game. 1.25 for Gent is a little big in my opinion. I saw the price before the bookmakers odds were out and waited to see how bookmakers priced it up. Bwin and others now have 1.15. Differdange got through against a Faroes side and the difference between Belgium league and Luxumburg is very big. Gent in excellent form pre season also so seem well prepaired.
Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July
in Champions League Predictions
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Re: Second qualifying round, 2nd leg > 24-25 July