Fedar
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Ethiopia - South Africa I can't understand the odds which treat SA as a heavy favorite. So far in the qualifiers, Ethiopia didn't lose a single game, they drew 1:1 away to their opponent. At home they have three victories without even conceding a goal. In all official games in the last two years they didn't lose at home and had two draws - 2:2 with Nigeria and 0:0 with Benin. SA are 2-2-0 so far in the group. Away from home they defeated CAR and drew 1:1 with Botswana. The victory in Central African Rep. was the only away win of SA in official match in the last three years. SA are 60th in the world ranking, while Ethiopia are 106th, however the home team is improving a lot in the last two years and I don't think that the class gap between the two is huge, if any. The last edition of the cup of nations showed that Ethiopia and South Africa are more or less comparable in class. Ethiopia is leading the table with 2 points advantage with two games to go (only group winner qualifies). However, if they draw, then Ethiopia must win against Central African Republic away from home in the last match, which could be a very hard task, so I believe that a strong home team will try to do the job at their stadium. The game will take place in Addis Abbaba, where it is usually very hot during this time of the year, while in South Africa it is winter (of course, still African winter). Accidentally, in the last week weather in Ethiopia have been pretty mild and for the game expected temperatures are about 20 degrees Celsius with light rain. I don't agree at all with current prices. Against such tough home team like Ethiopia, only the top dogs of the continent can deserve such price - Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, but surely SA is not amongst them. In my virtual book, I would give similar chances to the two teams with small advantage for Ethiopia. At current prices, I see a huge value in home win. Ethiopia @ 4.18
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Sorry, the above table looks very messy, I have no experience opening such table-threads. May some moderator fix this mess?!
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[TABLE=class: table-main]
[TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][TABLE=class: table-main] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]12 Jun - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371040200-1-1-0-0]15:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Malawi - Kenya[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.58[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.53[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.88[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371063600-1-1-0-0]22:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Namibia - Nigeria[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.52[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.48[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]14 Jun 2013 - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371223800-1-1-0-0]18:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Libya - Togo[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.74[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.39[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]15 Jun 2013 - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Botswana - Central Africa[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.41[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.06[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.88[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Uganda - Angola[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.36[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.91[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Zambia - Sudan[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.25[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.12[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]10.22[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371306600-1-1-0-0]17:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Congo - Burkina Faso[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.56[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.04[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.68[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371308400-1-1-0-0]18:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Gabon - Niger[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.99[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]7.31[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371312000-1-1-0-0]19:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Liberia - Senegal[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.91[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.64[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.53[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371317400-1-1-0-0]20:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Cape Verde - Sierra Leone[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.84[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.36[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.01[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371326400-1-1-0-0]23:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Morocco - Gambia[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.28[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.88[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]9.66[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]16 Jun 2013 - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371384000-1-1-0-0]15:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Tanzania - Ivory Coast[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]7.24[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.13[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.40[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Ethiopia - South Africa[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.18[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.79[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Lesotho - Ghana[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]8.78[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.76[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.30[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Mozambique - Egypt[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.35[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.33[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.79[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371389400-1-1-0-0]16:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Rwanda - Algeria[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.74[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.47[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.69[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371393000-1-1-0-0]17:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]D.R. Congo - Cameroon[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.51[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.07[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371398400-1-1-0-0]19:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Equatorial Guinea - Tunisia[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.88[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.49[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.67[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371402000-1-1-0-0]20:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Guinea - Zimbabwe[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.38[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]8.69[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371405600-1-1-0-0]21:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Mali - Benin[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.41[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.11[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]7.23[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371040200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371063600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371223800-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371306600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371308400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371312000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371317400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371326400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371384000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371389400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371393000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371398400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371402000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: International Friendlies > 2013
I was going to reply to you before the match' date=' but I thought better because I've been on a losing streak recently. Well I was going to point out that Benzema hadn't scored for a staggering 1000 minutes before yesterday's match and I couldn't see from where France goals would come. Luckily your bet came through.[/quote'] I always welcome any feedback on my bets, mate! And probably if you had replied I would have chosen the Brasil Over 1.5 option because I was really on the verge of it. Anyway, I was still very lucky this time, but the lesson is to avoid to bet when you know very well one of the teams (as I know Brasil which I watch regularly), but know very little about the other one (haven't watch a France game since the Euro 12). -
Re: International Friendlies > 2013
Bet won, but not quite happy with this one. I wouldn't take it again if, let's say, the same match takes place tomorrow. France is just way too negative and impotent. Seems that the negative football of Ligue 1 have spread to the national team. Brasilians were the only ones working for the over 2.5 all the match. The right bet here was surely Brasil Over 1.5 goals, priced at 1.83.I propose a different bet here. Over 2.5 is at 1.95 which is just way too high, considering that huge percentage Brazil team go over 2.5. I think that punters here are backing heavily unders because of H2H, which suggests very tight and goal-less match-up. However, apart from a friendly in 2011, the last game between the two was back at the World cup finals in Germany in 2006. Hardly relevant in my opinion. And the friendly they played in 2011 took place in February in Paris and finished 1:0. We know that in February and November there is a Wednesday, dedicated only to friendlies, which is amidst the football season, and which - unlike other official dates - does not involve a pause in the European leagues (meaning that international players play during the weekend, then travel to have a friendly with their national team in mid-week, and immediately return to play for their clubs few days later). For these reasons, these November and February friendlies are notoriously dull and boring, and rarely feature goal-fests. Therefore, I think that even the friendly in 2011 is not relevant in this respect. Home team is under immense pressure to finally get a decent win. However, no matter what they try, their defense is always too shaky and unstable. Even against England team which barely tried to attack (you know the typical Roy's style of parking the bus) they easily conceded twice. It will be very unlikely for them to keep a clean sheet tonight.I must take the overs, because I think they are a huge over-reaction of the market to data which is not so relevant. Over 2.5 @ 1.95 -
Re: International Friendlies > 2013
I propose a different bet here. Over 2.5 is at 1.95 which is just way too high, considering that huge percentage Brazil team go over 2.5. I think that punters here are backing heavily unders because of H2H, which suggests very tight and goal-less match-up. However, apart from a friendly in 2011, the last game between the two was back at the World cup finals in Germany in 2006. Hardly relevant in my opinion. And the friendly they played in 2011 took place in February in Paris and finished 1:0. We know that in February and November there is a Wednesday, dedicated only to friendlies, which is amidst the football season, and which - unlike other official dates - does not involve a pause in the European leagues (meaning that international players play during the weekend, then travel to have a friendly with their national team in mid-week, and immediately return to play for their clubs few days later). For these reasons, these November and February friendlies are notoriously dull and boring, and rarely feature goal-fests. Therefore, I think that even the friendly in 2011 is not relevant in this respect. Home team is under immense pressure to finally get a decent win. However, no matter what they try, their defense is always too shaky and unstable. Even against England team which barely tried to attack (you know the typical Roy's style of parking the bus) they easily conceded twice. It will be very unlikely for them to keep a clean sheet tonight.I must take the overs, because I think they are a huge over-reaction of the market to data which is not so relevant. Over 2.5 @ 1.95Friendly International Brazil v France Sunday 20.00 -
Re: WC>Asia Qualifiers June 4th
But aren't both teams more or less happy with a draw?! This will surely guarantee Japan a place at the Mondial and will also put Australia in a favorable position to decide everything at home against supposedly inferior opponents. If this is the case, I see rather dull and boring game.Japan v Australia over 2.5 @ 2.26 pinnacle Japan v Australia over 3.5 @ 4.00 sportsbet Japan's defence has question marks about it, after their 2-0 loss in the friendly to Buglaria and also losing 2-1 to Jordan in their last qualifier. The Socceroos will look to exploit that, and though their own recent international form is patchy, their is a steely reserve here that this is one game they cannot lose. Expect them to be very much up for this game and in the faces of the Japanese players, and especially who have some skillful attackers, if they get the room, they will tear this ageing Australian defence apart. Ognenovski is good in the air, but turns slowly and a smaller, more agile forward can get around him while Lucas is struggling for match fitness and was injured awhile so can see him being underdone. Japan have pretty much qualified for the WC, and a point will confirm this, while Australia runs the risk of missing out if they do not win their last two games against Jordan and Iraq at home, so any point they get here will be huge for them. In their favour they have a good record against the Japanese who seem to be intimidated by their physical presence on the field, and are thus prone to being "off" their game when they play them. With little confidence in either defence, can see this game having some goals in it, and a 2-2 draw is possible -
Re: International Friendlies > 2013
Don't agree with these points. Actually I think for Mexico it is much more important to win this one, while for Nigeria it is just a friendly they probably don't care much. Mexicans had a surprisingly bad start of their campaign which brought huge media and public uproar in the country, which is used to be undisputable super-power in CONCACAF football. Mexicans really need to win this one to rebuild confidence before qualifications and to release a little pressure. Nigerians, on the other hands, are not comfortable at all in their qualification group. As a matter of fact, I think Nigeria is under much more risk of failing to qualify than Mexico. While in CONCACAF whole 3 places give direct promotion and one gives a play-off, Nigeria must win their group to proceed further. After they failed to win at home against Kenya (Nigeria equalised in the last minute), now they travel in Nairobi and if they lose, they will drastically reduce their chances of going through, as Kenya will have much easier games till the end.Just had a more detailed look at the WC qualification tables for both those teams' date=' its harder to make a case for the Mexicans on second glance, they need to pick up points and have 3 games in a short space of time, including a tricky game in Panama and after that comes the Confederations Cup so [b']this friendly will be bottom of the priority list. Nigeria are going strong in their group so might be more relaxed as there is less pressure on them generally it would seem...as I said team news will be important for this to see how seriously it will be taken -
Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13
Wait, wait, wait......First, Besiktas have no chance for CL. The tie-breaker in Turkey is direct games and Fenerbahce have advantage, hence they are qualified already. Second, how did you come up with "Fenerbahce won the cup"?! The cup final is the following week. Third, Kayserispor have no chance for EL. The last spot will be given to Trabsonspor, regardless of how the final ends. Please, do some research before giving tips.Anybody looked at Kayserispor vs Besiktas Besiktas @ 7/5 looks tempting Yesterday Fenerbahce lost in the last round and with any win Besiktas will go to Champions League qualifiers next season. This is huge difference for any team, the whole season is different roughly. Still because Fenerbahce won the Cup only a win will give Kayserispor a place in Europa league. So that sounds like a game with something to play for at both ends. Besiktas has the second best attack in the Turkish Super league, but their defense is 12th! even lower than Kayseri's 8th place. Still Besiktas has a bigger budget and football traditions in general, a CL place will definetly help them out. Against top half teams Kayserispor has 5 wins, 7 losses and 3 draws. The 3rd top scorer in the league Bobo from Kayserispor with 17 goals(only 1 penalty(Burak Yilmaz scored as well only one penalty out of his 24 goals..)) has scored more than one third of Kayseri's goals. He is in form scoring in the last 2 games, but his previous team was Besiktas and I assume they know his tricks. If Besiktas manages to deal with Bobo they should win this game imo. I don't think this game will end with a draw that will not help any team as in the last 8 games they played at Kayserispor's stadium there were no draws, 5 wins for Kayseri and 3 for Besiktas(still from their total games Besiktas leads). If there is some Turkish on the forum I will be glad to hear his opinion as well for the game. -
Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May
Definitely this is the better choice in such circumstances than going for a draw at 1.25. You have to over-stake at such low price and there is always the chance of the odd goal. And I still think that these games are not pre-arranged: it is just natural for both teams not to attack when they know a draw is good for them and when they see the opponent reaction on the pitch.Before kickoff 0-0 was 3.35 on Betfair -
Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May Anybody surprised with that score?! Still not sure if 1.25 was value or not. But what was the coefficient for 0-0?! Surely this could have been good value.
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Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May
Basically livorno taken a good lead early giving them a chance of winning title' date=' would alter the mindset of the other match with verona and empoli?[/quote'] You didn't research the games well. If Verona and Empoli make a draw, they BOTH DO NOT CARE about Livorno and Sassuolo score. It will have no relevance for them if they have a draw. Verona qualifies directly and Empoli get their play-off guaranteed. If the game is played for real, both teams risk something big - Verona will have to play play-offs if they lose, and if Empoli loses, then they won't participate in play-offs (more than 9 points difference between 3rd and 4th team, means that no play-offs are played). And what is this fuss about "winning the title"?! Nobody cares about "the title", in fact there is no title given, as far as I know. All they care about is promotion. -
Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May
Fedar the clip you put up there looks really bad' date=' Livorno finishes roughly 10 points ahead of empoli.....why would they not flag this up to authorities? looking at that clip empoli would be totally rested for play-off match if played at the same pace and intensity as your clip:rollin also they could rest players if they choose if match is fixed. Lets just hope match isn't played at the same level as that clip, and everything else is just assumption given what has happened in this league previously.:spank[/quote'] Mate, Livorno can flag up whatever they want, authorities can do nothing without proof. Furthermore, who says that Verona and Empoli will fix this game in the traditional way (making verbal arrangement) and that Celta and Cordoba fixed their match?! It is absolutely possible that the two teams didn't arrange anything before hand, they just refuse to attack each other because they a draw is good for both. -
Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May I would personally stay away from this match and I will surely not rely on "authorities monitoring the game". Here you got a game just an year ago from Spanish Segunda last round - Celta Vigo vs. Cordoba. Absolutely similar situation - both teams need a draw, one of them for direct promotion, the other for play-offs. Just have a brief look:
Nobody gives a damn about authorities monitoring the game. Unless they intercept phone calls with direct proof of arrangement, they cannot do absolutely anything. -
Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Very much looks like under 2.5 to me. First of all, both Arsenal away and Newcastle in general (home and away) tend to be "unders" teams. Arsenal are solid in the back, but don't impress when going forward on the road - they rather try to nick "economic" results. Newcastle used to be one of the most "over"-prone teams in the league till January, when Ba was sold, several French players were brought in, who stabilised defensive performance, and a few of the injured players in the back returned. Focusing on the particular match, Newcastle is the team with little motivation here. Sure, they will play for their pride and great supporters, but I don't see them keeping high tempo and attacking much. I think they will try to upset Arsenal and will therefore be more defense-minded and looking for surprises on the break. Arsenal, on the other hand, are in a do-or-die situation. They must win and all that matters for them is the 3 points, no matter how they gain them. So, I expect Arsenal to be solid in the back once again and if they take the lead in this match, they will be much more concerned about keeping it than trying to score more. Anyway, I don't see how "unders" deserve 2.35 here. Any logical reason why "overs" will be considered so much more likely here?! I personally don't find any such reason in teams' stats, formations and motivation. In the best case "over" and "under" should be at par, but I would even price "over" slightly higher. Under 2.5 @ 2.35
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Re: Arsenal v Wigan Athletic > Tue 14th May
How silly of me to think Wigan aren't going to score at the emirates I mean Everton didn't and man united managed only one. Apologies Wigan should score a minimum of 4 here that's why they are so high on the premier league table and add to that the fact that Wigan have scored 1 goal against Man united ' date=' man city , Chelsea , Liverpool and arsenal in 9 premier league games whilst conceding 25. "They have to win so they are going to score" Punters will lose with that sort of mentality.[/quote'] Take it easy. I would call silly only making heavy judgments based on one game, played at another venue (Wigan), 6 months ago under completely different circumstances. And call it "tremendous value", when it is priced at the enormous 2.0 coefficient. I do think it is much more likely for both teams to score and would be looking at Arsenal clean sheet only at prices of around 2.50-2.60. At 2.0 this is simply poor offer. -
Re: Arsenal v Wigan Athletic > Tue 14th May
The last two games?! The game last spring finished 1:2 for Wigan at Emirates and they obviously looked like scoring a goal. The last game was a December game in Wigan and I don't see what relevance it has to a decisive match in the end of the season where both teams need only victory and nothing else?! Of course Wigan will play defensive against Arsenal in a normal mid-season game, where draw is not a bad score for them. Now a draw automatically relegates them. Of course Arsenal will not attack wildly from the first minute away from home in a normal December game, where a draw still won't be a bad result. Now a draw will mean end to CL dream for Arsenal. I personally see no way that either team will keep a clean sheet here.Last time these 2 played each other Wigan didn't look like scoring and Arsenal have been very defensive the last 4 games with each game going under. Pretty sure Wigan will be flat for this game and will struggle to create. Unders looks tremendous value but the 2 options I like are: Both teams to score No Arsenal Clean sheet. -
Re: Arsenal v Wigan Athletic > Tue 14th May
After today's (Sunday's) Premier League results' date=' both sides really have to win this game. I looked at overs but the odds are unattractive at around 1.45. Call me stupid, but are Wigan possible value at 10.0 (BetVictor) ?? [/quote'] After you wrote that Wigan are value against Man City at the cup final, we definitely cannot call you stupid. -
Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Sun 12th May I don't agree about comparing this match with usual title celebration games. Yes, if it was just for the title celebration, I wouldn't back United, because teams tend to be not very concentrated in such games. But this one is tremendous match for United - the last Old Trafford match of the legendary SAF. Even if SAF himself doesn't care so much, the players will surely want to fight like warriors from the first minute, to pay tribute and honor their boss. I wouldn't be surprised if I see Giggs running like a 20-year-old and the whole team chasing every ball and fighting for every inch of the ground. I don't think that an already "in holiday mod" and depleted Swansea can handle such attitude. United -1.5 United -2.5
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Re: Do you think this is a good bet?
When you say greater risk' date=' what sort of risk do you mean? [/quote'] I mean that usually pricing errors (so called "value") are usually within the range of 0.10-0.20 price units. So, when you make a value pick, priced by bookies at 2.0, you can hope potentially for a real price of around 1.80-1.85, which is still quite a risk (it is about 55% chance). When you discover value at a lower quoted price - say 1.25 - then the actual price might turn out to be as low as 1.060-1.070. I will still recall the San Marino no goal bet, which was quoted as high as 1.30-1.35, while its actual price might be deservedly 1.010. Now, this is the kind of deal which you might like to combine with similarly good offer, so that you don't need to overstake in order to get decent reward. In contrast, I will give example with value pick at higher price - the victory of Man Un against Liverpool at Trafford in early January. It was priced at 2.0 and was considered as very good value by the majority of punters in this forum. The way this game developed showed very obvious that in this particular moment the price of United shouldn't have been higher than 1.60-1.70, but it was actually as high as 2.0. Nevertheless, even with so much value in this pick, it still contained some good amount of risk, as this is still a big derby and Liverpool had wonderful opportunity to equalise with just 7 minutes left on the clock. So, theoretically, if you make several value picks, identical to this of United against Pool, it is very likely that one of them will fail. But you will be better off, as your picks are very good value. However, if you combine them and the "loser" gets into your combo, then you are left with absolutely nothing from your stake. In contrast, when you make a combo of low odds value, such as the San Marino clean sheet, you can easily run through a very big number of picks without a "loser". And just two such selections, priced at 1.30, give you a combo coefficient of 1.70, which is very good. And I think that San Marino clean sheet type of bet can survive over quite a few combos. Of course, it is hard to find so good picks as the San Marino one, but potentially there could be good value coefficients at around 1.20-1.30. -
Re: Do you think this is a good bet? At least in my view, doing accumulators with high individual odds is the worst strategy. Such bets carry higher risk and should be taken only individually. Thus, if your selections are good, you will most likely be better off in total, while if you put them in combo, you can easily lose everything, because of one simple loss. And I see no point to look for additional bets, when you got already a single with 1.70-1.80. Of course, such combos with high odds are the only way for recreational players, who bet very small amounts. But this is just for fun and they can never be profitable.
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Re: Aston Villa v Chelsea > Sat 11th May
I'd say possible value on Villa at current odds of around 4.33. Chelsea probably need the win more than Villa' date=' but Villa's form has been much better recently and I don't think they should be at these odds at home.[/quote'] But if you were a book-maker, what odds you give to Villa?! Remembering that every decrease in home price is matched by increase in away price, which is at the moment 1.90. Would you be willing to give something like 2.40-2.50 to top 4 in-form and in full motivation side against a bottom half team, just to respect the improved performance of Villa lately?! In my opinion, odds on 1X2 are correct. As much as Villa deserves respect for their form, Chelsea also deserves respect for being by far the best Premiership side in the last several months. I could spot some opportunity on the goals market. Both team are high producers of "overs". Villa theoretically can still relegate, but in fact, the chances for this are probably less than 1%, and they are aware of it. So, I would expect a relaxed performance and attacking football from them in aim to please the home crowd. Chelsea without doubt will be chasing the win themselves. 1.72 is not the highest price, but I wouldn't price overs above 1.60. -
Re: Do you think this is a good bet?
I absolutely agree with you. And combos in particular trigger the inherent and destroying human feature called greed. As you said, you tend to include more "certain bets" in your combo, and end up losing everything. Still, my experience shows that combos can be very efficient, but only if you play in the low price range and carefully select teams and games you are very well informed of (not like "Hey look, I never bet or watched Danish league in my life, but I see that the first plays the last, so this should be a clear win and I should take it"). But some rules must be obeyed: - never pick more than three selections, preferably two. - don't aim at total combo coefficient higher than 2. 1.70-1.80 is an optimal level.Your argument is good in theory - although Bayern are a longer price because they have already won the Bundesliga,and Augsburg need points to avoid relegation. The trouble with combos is that our brains fool us - we think that this bet will win,and that bet will win,so the double or accumulator will win.But each leg of the combo has a chance of losing,and the chances stack up. -
Re: Do you think this is a good bet? The main problem with combos is that the uncontrolled risk factor becomes much more significant in comparison with singles. By uncontrolled risk factor I mean something very unexpected and non-logical in the context of the game, which goes against your bet. For instance - a foolish referee mistake, a red card out of nowhere, one or two extremely lucky and undeserved goals. Such events might ruin your bet even if you perfectly analyzed and predicted the game development. When you play a single at coefficient 2.50, the chances that something very unexpected happen are relatively small, as they pertain strictly to this game. However, when you put three or four games in a combo, priced at the same 2.50, then there are several games in which something unexpected and out of the ordinary might happen in your disadvantage. In my experience, combos can be good in the cases where you discover value selections at low prices. For instance, many people believe that a Man City win over Wigan priced above 1.30 is good value, despite the low price. Supposedly, a Bayern win over Augsburg on Saturday, priced at 1.25, might also be considered not a bad value, as usually Bayern gets about 1.12 at home. If we assume that both picks are value, them by combining them, you get a good value pick at the decent price of 1.70.
Confederations Cup 2013
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Re: Confederations Cup 2013 http://www.euronews.com/2013/06/13/nigeria-players-strike/