Fedar
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Posts posted by Fedar
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Re: UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round 2nd Leg > 23rd / 24th July HastGill, just a little update from me - Neil Lennon announced that he will start with the best available squad and wants his team to play at full strength - "Will go as strong as possible tomorrow. Still middle of pre-season. Want to get as much football into senior boys as possible." Also, he said he wants to play with Hooper tonight, despite his likely departure to Norwich. Norwich not playing in Europe, means that Hooper's participation tonight will not have any negative effect on his value (unless he gets injured). Big crowd is expected for the first official home match of the season. Odds are crap, but slow start might indeed provide favorable movement in odds. I think that Hooper to score a few is not a bad bet, either, in case he is a starter, as I see him fairly motivated for his last game at Celtic Park.
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Re: Facebook accounts/sites with "fixed games, 100%" Yes, I guess it must be a scam. I am just curious about the technology. In relation to this, I know a guy in a local football forum (not betting, but just football), who sometimes writes there about very unusual odds movements on the Asian market, regarding some matches of Bulgarian teams, and particularly some friendlies. He puts screen shots where we can see odd movement in-live minute-by-minute, and we see, for instance, when there is just one goal in the game and the odds on goals rise as the match approaches full-time, and then suddenly and contrary to any logic, they begin to drop hugely. And of course a flood of goals comes in the last 10-15 minutes. This guy from that forum is obviously not a scammer, because he doesn't offer anything and doesn't want any money, he is just a regular user in a football forum. However, he denied my request to share with me which sites he uses to obtain this info on minute-by-minute live odd movement, telling me that "you should invest time and effort and find it yourself".
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So, what's the deal with these popular facebook sites that offer info on fixed matches?! It should be a scam, but does anyone know how they do it?! I didn't have even the least interest in such sites, but recently twice the local sports media in Bulgaria commented about them after they offered two fixed matches from our league. The first game was in March and the second just yesterday, both involved Levski Sofia's away game, and both finished 2/1 (Levski wins first half, then loses the match). Out of curiosity, in both cases I checked the details of this facebook page. The forecasts about the fix were given about ten minutes before match start and they were both successful. So, I wonder how they did the trick. I was thinking that they possibly know some way to manipulate the timing of facebook posts. For instance, they make the post just immediately after the final whistle, but the timing appears as if it was posted before match start. And whoever follower of the page notices this fact and comments about it, is immediately deleted, so the only comments left are from people amazed by the fix prediction. The other alternative is that they could supposedly monitor odds movements very closely through some odds analysis service, and when they see weird odd movement, they decide to take a chance and announce it as a fix. Any ideas about it?!
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Re: Europa League 2nd Qual Round - 17th July
Can we add the weather factor also in favor of your pick?! In Trabzon it should be pretty hot at this time of the year. Yes, Derry are full-time professionals, but I doubt many of the players have any experience outside Ireland, so it might be the first time for them playing at temperatures of 30+ Celsius.Been pretty busy this week, have a small interest in a game tomorrow though. Trabzonspor v Derry City Derry travel to Turkey missing captain Deery, doesn't look like he has been starting much anyway, striker Patterson is a doubt with a back injury - leading scorer with 14 in 16 - but reading between the lines I think he will start. Derry are third in the Irish league currently after suffering two defeats on the trot. Trabzonspor have a few selection problems of their own, Zakora, defenders Bamba and Emerson won't be playing neither will striker Janko, new signing Malouda won't be playing either. They still have a quality side though, look for example at their probable midfield line-up - VOLKAN - capped for Turkey cost 3.6m euros, COLMAN - Argentinian with over 120 appearances for the club cost 2.3 euros ADRİAN MIERZEJEWSKI - Capped 30 times for Poland cost 5.3m euros OLCAN - Turkish International cost 3.3m euros. They difference between the sides is quite significant, I probably wouldn't go overboard if Derry were at home but I think Trabz will take at least a two goal lead back to Derry for the return leg to make it as much of a formality as possible. Not too concerned about the fact that Derry are mid-season, think we can read too much into these things as another poster recently pointed out. The prices have risen slightly possibly based on the Trabz missings, so you might get better prices in the morning. Trabzonspor -1.5AH - 1.475 - bet365 - 5 Points Trabzonspor -2.0AH - 1.725 - bet365 - 5 Points -
Re: Concacaf Gold Cup 2013
I haven't researched this very much' date=' but on the basis of the shots statistics for the group games, at first glance there seems to be some value on most of the underdogs in the Quarter Finals, particularly Cuba and Trinidad and Tobago.[/quote'] Mate, I have been following with big interest your recent strategy "statistics - value". Seems to be doing well, isn't it?! However, I was wondering why you choose to go for the longest odds instead of supporting the value pick with +handicap or double chance?! I mean I remember quite a few instances lately when you predicted very well that an underdog will put up much stronger resistance to the favorite than bookies/market believed, but you ended up winning nothing as you went for the very long odds, instead of handicap/double chance, which were very well priced as well. I was just pondering, isn't the biggest value in such instances (underdog being underestimated by bookies) in handicaps, and doesn't it fade away in the long odds for straight underdog win?! For instance, I also think that Trinidad can put up a fight against Mexico, despite being definitely below their class, simply because Mexicans struggle against compact defense and often start slowly, while Trinidad have the physics and legs to defend well. Hence, it is reasonable to believe that the current handicap lines are set too high and it is smart to bet against them (i.e. Trinidad not losing with as many as bookies believe). However, Trinidad winning still looks like a very long shot, especially considering that they will spend more than 90% of the time in their own half. So, I was wondering could it be theoretically possible that the odds for straight win for an underdog are fair price, while odds for handicap on the same underdog are value?! Of course, these are just my analytical thoughts, mate, and I don't want to mess up with your judgment and look like the biggest fool if Trinidad wins on Sunday. ;) Just trying to clear up things for myself and probably offer an alternative perspective. -
Re: UEFA Womens Euro Sweden 2013
That was good call, mate! Watched after the 60th minute, and I think the Dutch were much sharper and much closer to scoring. Bad organization in German play and very little threat. Although obviously the way to go in these games here is "unders" as these girls are so pathetic in front of goal - I guess you got very angry at the last second chances for Holland when they got two on one and played such a crap ball. I have seen that in women football the only consistent team that is always delivering is the USA.Germany W v Netherlands W Netherlands W DNB 17.0 BetVictor -
Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Also, I think there is value in backing underdogs on some handicaps against Caucasian sides (and particularly those from Armenia and Azerbaijan). I have noticed over the years that these teams are notoriously under-ish and struggle to break down any kind of tight defense, even amateur one. I think Shirak aren't that bad, and they could perform much better if they are in the role of the underdog and are left with more free space, but they simply don't feel confident in the build-up. Worth to remember how the national team of Armenia lost to Malta at home (after a horrific performances and very little threat in attack) and 4 days later they demolished Denmark in Copenhagen. Also Azerbaijan national team seem to be struggling against any minnow they play, although they are not that bad and sometimes trouble some of the big teams in Europe.
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Re: Concacaf Gold Cup 2013
USA - Belize 6:1 :D From what I saw in highlights, the Americans were all over them. Could have been easily double digits.I know I might be a little late, but I do feel there is some value on big margin USA win tonight. Belize are not exactly Tahiti, but they are not very far away from them. I draw my conclusions from their WC campaign. They fell off board at the first stage, while teams like Guyana and Antigua made it to the second stage. In their group they lost twice to Guatemala - 1:2 and 1:3, and once at home to Grenada by 1:4. The same Guatemala was beaten very heavily on Friday by the USA by 6:0 and they got totally dominated. I don't see any valuable players in the Belize team. While USA is missing many European based players, they have the strongest teams among all in this competition. In attack they got plenty of options: their biggest legend Donovan is playing and just scored twice against Guatemala, alongside him there is Herculez Gomez - a very decent and experienced striker from MSL and Chris Wondolowski - one of the best strikers in the recent history of MSL. In midfield they got young Rosenborg regular starter Diskerud, Joe Corona - a young talent who is a key player in Tijuana - one of the most impressive teams in Copa Libertadores this season, experienced Steward Holden from Bolton Wanderers and Kyle Beckerman who has 26 caps for his national team. As we see, USA have many experienced players on their roaster and people with big number of caps for their national team. They have also a very formidable attack force for the level of this tournament. They have the advantage to be probably the only team that will play in front of full crowd, which was very hot-tempered at the match vs Guatemala last Friday. I do think that Belize will fall easy pray to motivated US team and think that the Americans will repeat their performance from Friday when they demolished Guatemala. USA Team Goals: Over 4.5 @ 2.62 (bet365) -
Re: Concacaf Gold Cup 2013 I know I might be a little late, but I do feel there is some value on big margin USA win tonight. Belize are not exactly Tahiti, but they are not very far away from them. I draw my conclusions from their WC campaign. They fell off board at the first stage, while teams like Guyana and Antigua made it to the second stage. In their group they lost twice to Guatemala - 1:2 and 1:3, and once at home to Grenada by 1:4. The same Guatemala was beaten very heavily on Friday by the USA by 6:0 and they got totally dominated. I don't see any valuable players in the Belize team. While USA is missing many European based players, they have the strongest teams among all in this competition. In attack they got plenty of options: their biggest legend Donovan is playing and just scored twice against Guatemala, alongside him there is Herculez Gomez - a very decent and experienced striker from MSL and Chris Wondolowski - one of the best strikers in the recent history of MSL. In midfield they got young Rosenborg regular starter Diskerud, Joe Corona - a young talent who is a key player in Tijuana - one of the most impressive teams in Copa Libertadores this season, experienced Steward Holden from Bolton Wanderers and Kyle Beckerman who has 26 caps for his national team. As we see, USA have many experienced players on their roaster and people with big number of caps for their national team. They have also a very formidable attack force for the level of this tournament. They have the advantage to be probably the only team that will play in front of full crowd, which was very hot-tempered at the match vs Guatemala last Friday. I do think that Belize will fall easy pray to motivated US team and think that the Americans will repeat their performance from Friday when they demolished Guatemala. USA Team Goals: Over 4.5 @ 2.62 (bet365)
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Re: UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July
Mate, I am surprised you did a very good analysis about Botev, despite language barrier. :clap You are totally right - they are strong, they are rich (for local standards), and they keep on reinforcing themselves with good players. Neutral venue shouldn't be a problem - the stadium will be sold out and full of Botev fans, so it won't make any difference. I read that Botev were better in the first game and had the better chances, although their domination wasn't overwhelming. My only worry here is that Kazakhstan teams are notorious for being very defensive, and Botev don't like when they have to deal with this kind of opponents - they prefer more open game. Also, having won the first leg, they might not be completely unhappy with a draw....Nevertheless, the current price is 1.9, which when adding the bookie over-round, should imply about 50% probability of home win. I think Botev's chances should be around 70%, so there is value definitely! Hope I was helpful.Botev Plovidiv looks interesting and maybe some value for Plovdiv win. The game is being played in Burgas not at Plovidiv home ground which looks a bit of a dump but I dont think this will have much effect. Plovdiv won the first leg 1-0 and look to have made some decent signings over the summer. They look quite strong with fringe bulgarian internationals on the bench. Bulgarian football seems to have had a mini resurgence of late and their league seems quite strong and the clubs at the top end look to have a fair bit of money to spend. Astana are missing 2 of their best players a defender and striker both kazak internationals and they have struggled without them not winning in 5 games since they got injured. Fedar I think is Bulgarian so will have better knowledge than me. What do you think of Botev Plovdiv Fedar? -
Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Oh, sorry, my stupid mistake...:eek
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July
One loss' date=' and one win snatched away by an own-goal and a 93' goal...[/quote'] Sorry to ask, but where is the win - Sliema - Khasar 1:1 (over 2.5 loser) and Narva - Gefle 0-3 (under 3 void)?! -
Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July
Game finished 2:2 and Streymur had a man off at 2:0. Ofc didn't watch it, but it is very likely that Streymur were in much better physical condition than their host to be able to overcome two goal deficit with man down (and statistically Lusitanos much better in 1st half, while Streymur better in 2nd half). So maybe the answer to your question is still YES.:unsure Lusitanos 2-0 up at half time. Also Bala 1-0 up after 20mins in Europa league. The lesson seems to be to avoid backing away sides especially in the first leg no matter how crud their opponents seem to be. Also interesting to think weather a side who has already started their season actually does have a real advantage over a side playing their first competitive game. -
Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July Final score: 3:0. Before the 70th minute, guests barely passed the midfield and btts-no looked dead certain. However, afterwards they started attacking more bravely and with about ten minutes to go they got their 100% chance - one on one with the goalie who blocked the shot, followed by another shot at empty goal - cleared in front of the goal-line, and a third final shot from a good position to finish the attack. Shirak were poor and all handicappers might have been screwed very badly. This game could have easily finished 2:0 or even 1:0. No creativity from the Armenians whatsoever, no tall man up-front to materialise attacks, some serious technical deficit as well. All three goals were more or less very fortunate.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013
Well, they certainly look way too long for a team which won a continental championship, so definitely some value in Tahiti. :loonSpain v Tahiti Latest odds from Betfair: Tahiti @ 480.0 Draw @ 140.0 Can anyone remember a football match with odds like this? :lol -
Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Hmmmm....maybe now it's the time for us to show more "out-of-the box" thinking. Will really Spain want to humiliate the nice and friendly amateurs from the islands?! I somehow strongly doubt. Yes, indeed Tahiti defense was so poor against Nigeria, that sometimes even if they didn't want, Nigerians players just had no other option but to score. However, Nigeria plays much more direct football than Spain. I can imagine the Spaniards passing the ball to each other for 10 minutes without conceding possession and without shooting at goal, especially if they are 5-6 goals ahead already. The bottom line is that the market reasons like this: Nigeria scored 6 and missed many more, Spain is several classes above Nigeria, so Spain must score more than 10. However, I am not so sure about this reasoning, because it may miss important aspect - Spain, unlike Nigeria, is sure to go through and don't need to bet Tahiti heavily to improve goal difference. Moreover, Nigeria had many young and unestablished players who wanted shine in this game, while Spain consists only of superstars for whom humiliating amateur players is probably not a priority. 5-6 goals for Spain are inevitable, but it is arguable whether they will cover this handicap set at the moment, and it is unlikely in my view that they will go above ten. So maybe some value might be hunted at big Tahiti handicaps.
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Final update on Guinea - Zimbabwe: this is probably the biggest curiosity any member of this betting community have ever experienced while betting. It is not known what the final score is yet, and the football information and news community is split in two: half of them are reporting "1:0" home win and the other half "2:0" home win. I had played -1.5 handicap and got it as winning bet at bet365, but two hours later it turned into a loser. Fifa.com and soccerway claim the game finished 1-0. Livescore.com and livescore.gs claim it finished 2-0 with two goals from Mohammed Yattara (37th and 90th min). Mohammed Yattara himself claims on twitter that he scored twice and the game finished 2-0. Conacry Live - a twitter page from Guinea, claims the match finished 2-0 with two goals from Yattara. Another media from Guinea reports 1-0 home win. All the press in Zimbabwe report 2-0 home win. I really have never seen such thing and I watch football for more than 20 years. It is like a comedy sitcom. P.S. Now I read that other bookies settled the same bet (-1.5 home) as a winner! Unf*ckingbelievable!
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013
Mate, with all due respect to any alternative betting perspective, I can assure you Spanish players and nearly any other non-American players won't care at all even if the whole US nation is watching them on TV. I seriously doubt that any of the Spaniards will be even aware of these facts. Contrary to what many Americans believe, most people in Europe and around the World don't go to bed and wake up, thinking about USA.Confederations Cup Betting – Day #2 ....Another angle I see working against the Spanish team from a betting perspective is the fact that this is really the first time that the entire American audience is going to be ontop of this country. This is the first major tournament ran exclusively on ESPN and is drawing a ton of new spectators. ESPN is pushing soccer in a big way to draw a buzz for the upcoming World Cup and their newly purchased TV rights. Uruguay +1 (-120) ($120/$100) -
Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Another update which comes directly from Zimbabwean press just few minutes ago: http://allafrica.com/stories/201306160166.html In Brief: Only 11 players made it to Guinea, among them 2 goal-keepers. So, guests will play with a goal-keeper as a regular player! These is the last info coming from Zimbabwe. If this is true, we should consider even bigger handicaps.
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Update on Guinea - Zimbabwe: at the moment (2hrs ago), 14 players from Zimbabwe have arrived in Guinea. Among them is NOT their star and only European based player - Knowledge Musonga. Another regular player - Zvirekwi, lost his passport on the way, and returned promptly home. Egypt just won, so this game is for prestige more or less. Nevertheless, I still think there is value in Guinea handicaps at the moment. Guinea, even under regular circumstances are much classier - all of their team consists of Europe-based players (mostly France Ligue 1). Some of them are well known and play for good teams. Zimbabwe can only boast with few players who play in South Africa, all the rest is local stuff. I think the morale of Zimbabwe will be pretty low and think Guinea will unleash their anger of not making it to the following stage on them.
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Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June
Ethiopia - South Africa 2-1 FT :cow Insane euphoria at the stadium in Addis Abbaba - people are literally going mental. It's worth seeing this later on youtube - shouldn't call it "Latin American temper" but Ethiopian temper from now on. :okEthiopia - South Africa Ethiopia @ 4.18 -
Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June
Briefly, Zimbabwe's federation, in order to cut costs, didn't hire a plane, so the team had to travel with three different regular flights (Zimbabwe - Kenya, Kenya - Senegal, Senegal - Guinea). However, not enough tickets were available from Senegal to Guinea and they bought only 14 tickets, so they were supposed to take just 12 players. However, in the last moment other tickets were found and 25 men travel to Guinea. Anyway, the team started their journey on Saturday at 2 o'clock in the morning and arrived in Guinea around 10 o'clock in the evening. They will have no time for even a single training and no time to acclimatize (they travel from "winter" season in their own country to very hot tropical summer in Guinea.What's the news about Gwinea? Share info please -
Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Swindonfan, what happened?! Why you deleted your opinion?! Is this info true about Guinea game?!
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013
Japan to win to tournament at 51.0 looks pretty big to me. I know they are not comparable to Brazil or Spain' date=' but how seriously do teams take this competition? I've not followed it closely but I can remember some shock results before.[/quote'] Don't agree, mate. Japan is in my opinion worse than they used to be in 2010. I saw lately two of their games - friendly with my Bulgaria and qualifier with Iraq. They are very weak at the back and kind of impotent up-front. Haven't checked other odds yet, but if you are looking at long shot surprise, you better be looking at Mexico and Uruguay. Mexico are very good and you should not be confused by their mediocre campaign in qualifiers. All the other teams park the bus against them and they are not really build-up to play against such tactics. But they can be very dangerous against better and more open opponents.
UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round 2nd Leg > 23rd / 24th July
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round 2nd Leg > 23rd / 24th July Also, very strange movements on the Asian markets for Daugava - Elfsborg. The handicap was initially fixed at Daugava +1 3/4, which traded at 2.40. Then it moved up to AH Daugava +2 to reach AH Daugava +2 1/4, which trades at 2.30 at the moment. Doesnt make much sense as the tie is decided and Elfborg are going to rest many regulars. However, there were many suspicious in-live betting patterns at the first match. I remember that at 0:0 at around the 20th minute, the odds on over 3.5 at bet 365 were something like 1.30. The half-time finished at 1:0, and the handicap on Elfsborg was set at -2.5 (i.e. Elfsborg to win with at least 4 goal difference), which traded at very low price. Just for your info, there were suspicious betting patterns this summer at European matches of two other Baltic teams - Trans Narva and Kruoja.