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Fedar

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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: La Liga > 3rd - 6th May

    Getafe vs Sociedad. In similar games featuring these two teams, the away team has failed to win 83% of the time. Laying Sociedad seems to be the value bet. This equates to odds of 1.2, the bookies are offering 1.8, excellent value.
    You do realize that Sociedad this year and Sociedad in the previous years are two different teams?! They finished 12th and 15th in the last seasons and now they are almost certain to play in Champions League. Last year they got 14 away points altogether, now they got 23 so far. Statistics needs to be put in a context. P.S. Not saying Sociedad will win, just don't agree with such method of comparing different teams in different years and making conclusions about value. Knowing the performance and the motivation of both teams this season, 1.80 for home or draw seems like a very fair price.
  2. Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

    Good point. Since 1 point will be enough for Juve I don't see them risking too much in the last minutes if let's say the score is level. To be on a safer side I would go with Both to Score' date=' since the draw is most likely outcome here.[/quote'] But Mustafa, why would BTTS be a "safer" option?! Juventus have the best defense and the highest number of clean sheet in Serie A, while Palermo, despite their good form lately, have one of the worst attacks. I am not saying Juve will necessarily win this, but I don't see any safety in the BTTS market, and in fact, if we trust stats, this shouldn't be a wise choice. Anyway, as I said, Palermo are on a great run lately. But I don't remember Juve being given 1.50 at home against a side below top 6. Usually they would get such price (even smaller) against teams like Roma and Lazio.
  3. Re: Do you think this is a good bet?

    :cheers
    Congrats, but nevertheless, Jase was right and this was a poor bet (but lucky one). Out of the three components in the combo, only Bayern was good value at almost 1.90 for double chance. Chelsea was poor value at 1.50, given that they didn't really need to win the game, in order to qualify. And the double chance for Real for the ridiculous 1.14 is a complete joke, and after watching the game you should have realised this - if only one of the 4 or 5 clear-cut chances of BVB in the second half had gone in, your combo would have been ruined......by a 1.14 pick.
  4. Re: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund > Tue 30th April

    ............... Let's also consider the Manchester United tie this year. In the second leg, Madrid needed goals and they were not creating anything in the first 60 minutes. They didn't look like scoring - United had everything under control. Nani got sent off and it turned the game around. But while it was 11v11 Madrid were worse than useless. They were as bad as they were in Dortmund last week. .
    You continue to make very weird analogies, which lead to weird assumptions. How can you possibly compare a game at Old Trafford against Man Un, where Real need just a single goal, even if it is scored in the last minute, with a game at Bernabeu against Dortmund, where Real need three goals?! And you simply refuse to try to understand that Real at home and Real away are two entirely different teams. You still compare away games of Real and their conduct there, and make conclusions regarding a home game at Bernabeu. For me the choice between over3.5 and under 3.5 is straightforward here and it is not a crowd mentality and jumping on the bandwagon with other punters. It is just comparing odds with such evidence as recent stats, circumstances surrounding this particular game (Real needing to score 3) and knowledge about both teams. I am sure that chances of over 3.5 are bigger than chances of under 3.5, however prices are reversed. This is called value, at least from my perspective. It would make sense to bet on under 3.5 if it was something like 2.30-2.40, but at 1.80 it is a poor decision, even if it comes through. Anyway, if I were you and I believed so much that the game will be very tight, I would go for Under 2.5, because that's where the value stays, if we assume a tight game. Under 3.5 is a relatively poor coefficient, coupled with high risk. Better go for Under 2.5, because you at least get a decent reward for the risk you're taking. And if you turn right and the game is very tight indeed, then the chances of Under 2.5 are not much smaller than the chances of Under 3.5, but the price difference is just enormous.
  5. Re: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund > Tue 30th April

    This will be the fourth time Madrid have played Dortmund and they haven't come close to beating them so far. Yes two of those were away' date=' but they have been completely outclassed in every meeting. Dortmund just needs to keep things as tight as possible and they have the capability to do that. This definitely won't be as open as their previous meetings this season, and definitely not as open as the first leg. We'll see anyway. A lot of money will go on goals again for sure. I'm happy to be under 3.5 and confident I'll be on the winning side on Tuesday night, and you'll be losing with most of the other punters backing a load of goals.[/quote'] Glad you're so over-confident with your choice. It is your reasoning, mate, but I personally won't be so confident if all my logic behind the bet is summed up in one argument - "Borussia needs to keep things tight and they can do it".
  6. Re: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund > Tue 30th April

    Correct. Almost impossible. Do you really think backing an almost impossible task at 5.22 is a good bet? Just curious. I might be tempted to have a punt on Madrid at 25/1, but I personally 4/1 is ludicrous. But not as ludicrous as the insane 3/1 Paddy Power are currently quoting on Real Madrid to qualify. :lol I also think goals will be complicated too. Madrid created almost nothing in the first leg, and Dortmund will be playing defensively on the counter. Under 3.5 goals is the definite value here at 4/5 with several bookies. That's where my monies go.
    Basing your pick on the performance of a team in just one game is often a recipe for trouble. I don't know if you follow La Liga, but if you did, you would know that Real away and Real at home are two completely different things. Without even checking, I can at the moment recall at least 5 games this season, when Real could barely create a single goal-scoring chance away from home - Osasuna, Getafe, Granada, Betis, Sevilla...So, what happened at Dortmund is not so much out of the ordinary, given the poor away form of Real throughout the whole season.In contrast, at Bernabeu Real very rarely fails to score at least 3 goals. I am pretty sure that Real will nick at least 2 tomorrow and they won't manage to keep a clean sheet (they so rarely do, even against low ranked Spanish teams, and Borussia almost never fails to score at least a goal). So, three goals is the minimum that I expect. At the current odds (around 1.90 for over 3.5 and around 1.80 for under 3.5), clearly over 3.5 goals is the value. At least in my opinion.
  7. Re: Arsenal v Manchester United > Sun 28th April

    Over 2.5 Goals FT at 8/11 has to be quality here, and screams value loudly to me. I happen to think Arsenal will win here, it's a must win for them and the stakes are high for both player and manager as, being rivals and going without a home win for a while Wenger will be really motivated to get one over his long time rival sir Alex, who's team will be getting cheered off the field as champions of the league whatever the result. There are the kinds of games that Arsenal at the moment seem to be winning. Like at the Allianz, nobody gave them a ghost of a chance there against the Bayern team that just demolished barca 4-0 but they beat them 2-0 and never looked like conceding. So for those that see a United win (most people) they will have to score at least once to get it, and for those that see an Arsenal win the same applies (so that's 2 goal minimum on expectation and on form). So bearing that in mind, I see nothing less than 2-1 here for either side and possibly more if there is an early goal. I think Arsenal will look to win here by more than a single goal too, bearing in mind how many late shouts for penalties and offside goals they seem to have gotten this season. So over 2.5 at 8/11 for me is totally worth getting into, and possibly over 3.5 too inplay.
    Mate, you were missing from this forum for quite a long. Anyway, I find your tips interesting and hope you will stay longer now.
  8. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Guys, time for another round of Bulgarian football. This time I am giving two tips in hope to improve performance after last week. 1) Levski - CSKA The big derby of Sofia and Bulgaria. Although I am not impartial here, I will analyze this entirely from a betting perspective, leaving any personal preference behind. For me, at these prices CSKA DNB is an absolute must. At the best case, these teams are absolutely equal and definitely such a huge advantage given by bookies for Levski is unfounded. Here are my arguments: - The game is played at neutral venue and there are no spectators' quotas, so no home advantage. - Both teams showed hesitant form this spring, but on overall, CSKA gained more points so far in the second half of the season. - Big likelihood that Levski will still miss their key goal-scorer Carvalho. Even if he plays, he probably won't be 100% fit.The guy scored more than one third of all Levski goals this season. CSKA have no important missings. - This is a must-win for Levski, otherwise they will practically lose any chance for the title. CSKA is not competing for the title, but for the third place and European quota. So, victory here is not an absolute necessity. In such circumstances, the psychological advantage stays with CSKA. Both teams are much better in counter-attacks than in gradual build-up. Levski having to chase the victory, means will have more ball possession and give more chances for CSKA to punish them on the break. For instance, in the last two games between CSKA and Levski, the team which was the bookie underdog and which defended and counter-attacked, won (1:0 for Levski an year ago, and 1:0 for CSKA in the autumn). - CSKA attack is going to be led by Kamburov and Platini. These guys together have scored around ten goals in Levski's net on the past years. - If we assume that the two teams are relatively equal in midfield and attack, I think that CSKA definitely have better and more experienced defense. CSKA DNB @ 2.25 (bet365) 2) Botev - Litex Two teams playing very attacking and open football, and fighting for the third place. Both teams need three points, but it is especially urgent for Litex, which lost their last two games. This should guarantee an open game with goals in both nets. BTTS @ 1.72 (bet365)

  9. Re: La Liga > 26th - 29th April Guys, don't read too much into the Osasuna - Sociedad game. Osasuna away is one of the most complicated game for any Spanish team. They play very different football than any other team in the league - very defensive, very physical and aggressive. They are the most under-ish side in the league and one with the fewest goals conceded (which is quite of an accomplishment, given their place in the table). Just check the games of Real and Barca in Pamplona. Real drew 0:0 without having a decent chance on goal, while Barcelona managed to grab the "2:1" victory only with two late Messi goals, after Osasuna were leading for most of the time. I believe this game is too unpredictable in terms of 1X2. My call here is BTTS and over 2.5. I know the price is not high, but I think that the actual probability is even better than the odds suggest.

  10. Re: La Liga > 26th - 29th April Cristisno Ronaldo will miss the game according to reports. I personally think the odds on "over" might look good, but they are actually realistic. Besides resting key players, which is for sure, knowing Mourinho mentality, don't forget that while Real Madrid is "overish", Atletico is one of the most under-ish sides in the league. Also, I think that under these circumstances Real will be happy with a draw here.

  11. Re: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid > Wed 24th April

    They make the selections the way that it is supposed to be 50-50 chance and I think there was a solid analysis besides the maths that tryed to identify the highest probability outcome :D yeah I got lucky in the end of the first half and the extra time when Ramos got a yellow' date=' but I think this was a decent bet :)[/quote'] Hahaha, I had it coming, mate....Almost all your bets won (or maybe all?!). Seems stats and maths worked perfect tonight.
  12. Re: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid > Wed 24th April

    after yesterday's ''easy'' game that everyone got :) today I am going for a risky bet because I am not sure for the final result of the game.. this game is absolutely triple chance :D I guess you have seen the yes/no bets and I have to say I have won couple of times on them and the last 2 times I filled such a coupon :). In the game against Malaga I won a 33/1 bet as well as half-time full-time draw-Borussia quite lucky I know :D So from my local Coral shop I got the Wednesday yes/no coupon and here are my predictions: Will there be 3 or more goals scored? Yes. Borussia's games in Bundesliga have been over 2.5 goal in 73% of the games and in 80% of their home games, Real's La Liga over games have been in 69% of their games and 63% of their away games. Really attacking teams in their domestic leagues, but in Champions League 60% of B. Dortmund's games this season have been over and since Mournho is coach of Real their games have been over 68% of the games, and only 4 of their last 21 games in CL have been under wOw. Will Cristiano Ronaldo score at anytime? Yes. I am not sure if need to comment this one, but everyone knows that Ronaldo in Real has scored more goals than the games he has played for Real, he doesn't have injury problems like Messi and since the start of 2013 he is in stunning form scoring 27 goals in 23 games for Real. He is also really motivated for the individual awards like Golden Ball and goalscorer of Champoions League and will really push it to the limit with Messi almost out of the calculations for goalscorer at least. Will it be a draw at half time? Yes 80% of B. Dortmund home games have been draws at half time this season in CL and I can see this one being a draw as well, really tight game, Borussia are the only team without a loss so far in the tournament. 63% of the away knock-out games in CL since Mourinho is in Real have been draws at half time and the game in Dortmund in 2012 ended as a draw at half time, even the second one in Madrid was really close being half time draw, but Gotze scored in the last min of the first half. Last yellow card shown to a Real Madrid player? Yes. Only in 3 out of 10 games this season in CL B. Dortmund has received the last yellow card and it is worth noting that 2 of those were against Real Madrid. Real Madrid on the other hand has received the last yellow card in 75% of their away knock-out games since Mou is in Madrid and the last 3 yellow cards against Bayern Munich last year in their away game. We all saw what happened against Malaga in front of that wild crowd at Signal Iduna Park and I think Mourinho will tell their players to do everything, but not to concede a last minute goal like against Bayern Munich last year. Real Madrid are the one playing more violent game typically and if Pepe comes as a sub he will definetly get a card :D Will B. Dortmund make the first substitution? No Since Mou is in Madrid he has made the first sub in the knock-out stages of CL 75% of the time. This season only in 3 out of 10 games Klop has made the first sub really believing in his core starting 11 players. I believe Real Madrid has a deeper squad and Mourinho has more options to shift the match dynamics. He isn't known as Sir Alex Ferguson that almost every game doesn't make a sub until the 65th minute and can sometimes change a player at half time if he isn't happy, as well as Mourinho is well known to exhaust his players relying on key players throughout the whole season and I think the chance of an injury is generally higher in Real's squad. Will a red card be given, a penalty awarded or a direct free kick be scored? No or Yes hahah This one is pure luck in my opinion I am leaning towards yes cause of the conspiracies that Real Madrid are pushed this year to the 10th, but I can't see a penalty, red card or Real scoring another free-kick.. I am advising you to stay away from this one and take the 16/1 odds good luck to everyone tonight :)
    Mate, this looks more like a math and stats class rather than a betting tip ;)
  13. Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Sun 21st April Sorry for continuing the off-topic on this thread that should be dead already. First, ridiculing another member by people who didn't contribute with anything is disgrace. Also, some people have to understand that winning in betting in the long term is not about winning your next pick - you ain't a Nostradamus in the end - it is about trying to make the right picks "ex-ante" which can assure you good results in the long run, regardless of bad luck streaks. These people not only don't put effort in making their own analysis and rely simply on borrowing others' tips, but they have the expectation that every such tip should bring them easy money and "hunt down" the tipster when it doesn't. It just doesn't work like this. And if you want a 100% sure winning tip, here is one for you - bet that Nadal will win his first game at Barcelona at coefficient of......1.010. Second, about Liverpool and Benites, as a foreign sympathizer of Pool, I have to say I have observed this trend of non-English and non-Merseyside supporters of Liverpool generally to dislike and disprove of the Spaniard, while the local Merseyside fans glorify him. I believe it is a question of different perspectives, with each of the two sides having their pros and cons. It is obviously very hard for foreign fans of Liverpool to recognize in its depth the club philosophy, whose main fundament is the figure of the manager who is on piedestal at this club, as well as the value that local Liverpool supporters assign to the virtue of loyalty. On the other hand, it is really hard for Merseyside-based Liverpool fans to get "outside the box" and get a real perspective regarding how the club's functioning looks from a more neutral point of view. Thus, sometimes such fans fail to notice very obvious mistakes and shortcoming of particular managers, that each neutral observers sees.

  14. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Sorry guys, a terrible weekend indeed. I also lost as I play with my money all the tips I share here. Only the over in Loko - Etar came through, the other two were failure. First, Litex-Levski was just "one of these games, one of these days". On any other day, this should have finished with a handicap win for Litex. They missed 5-6 clear chances only in the first half and received a goal in the first dangerous counter. Again, at 0:0, referee didn't give a penalty plus red card against Levski. He was then suspended from the Federation after the game. It is a big curious - this is the fourth referee only in the past month who gets a suspension after refereeing a match of Levski. Sad bookies don't offer prices on this. Here are the highlights of this game so that I can see yourself what I am talking about - http://vbox7.com/play:7befc553f5 Second, about Botev - Chernomorets, it was a bad pick and I admit it. I didn't watch the game, but I underestimated the very improving form of Chernomorets, which have profited me in the past few weeks. I hope for improvement during the weekend, when we got the big derby - CSKA-Levski. See ya then!

  15. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Time for some Bulgarian footie....My picks for tomorrow: 1) Litex - Levski I backed Litex to win the home game for the cup against Levski and rightfully so, and now I will copy my pick. 2.10 for home win is a good price and my reasons to back it are the following: - Litex showing much better football than Levski in the spring. They outplayed them twice in the cup matches and only severe referee mistakes and misfortune denied them deserved victory. - Levski missing their top striker Carvalho. The guy is actually the top scorer of the Bulgarian championship and the his alternatives are pathetic. They are two youths with no experience whatsoever plus the Portuguese striker Silva, whose performance so far has been abysmal. Levski's chances of scoring a goal diminish by 50% just because Carvalho is out. - Levski should be more tired as they played a hard mid-week cup game while Litex were resting. - The refereeing factor: in the last several weeks three referees were suspended by the Football Federation after refereeing Levski's games and giving very controversial decisions - all going in favor of Levski Sofia. This has created kind of public outrage and I feel that in the following weeks refereeing decisions won't go in Levski favor. Moreover, the referee for this game - Niki Yordanov, has some sort of reputation for being close to Litex and favoring them. Litex @ 2.10 (bet365) 2. Botev Vratsa - Chernomorets Under is an obvious bet here but is priced very low, so I will look at other options. Botev got a very big boost after winning at Plovdiv against Lokomotiv ten days ago and now they are above the relegation spots. Their morale is very high and it is extremely difficult even for top teams to beat them at their fortress in Vratsa, and Chernomorets is far from the standards of a top team. Despite Chernomorets also being on the rise, I think Botev have good chances to win this one and almost certainly won't lose at home. Botev DNB @ 1.80 (bet365) 3. Loko Pd - EtarOvers here seem like a very interesting prospect, despite Loko Plovdiv being generally very underish team. They disappointed a lot in their last home game when they lost against Botev Vratsa and generally their performance lately hasn't been good so they have a lot to make up before their supporters. On the other hand, Etar seem to have accepted their fate to be relegated and with not much tension on their shoulders they tend to play very open and attacking football, which resulted in 4 "overs" in their last 4 games and total of 19 goals scored. Their defense is still very fragile and it will surely be punished by the hosts. It is absolutely possible that Loko cover the over by themselves, but I think Etar have very decent chances to get at least a goal. Over 2.5 @ 1.75 (bet365)

  16. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

    The value offered is terrible. Ludogorets should win this' date=' but 1.20 is ridiculous, given the hardships Ludogorets have in front of goal. Maybe if you feel like playing, Under 2.5 is the way to go. It's a Monday game (they tend not to be very prolific), both teams feature many unders this spring and H2H their matches were very under-sih (apart from the last one). Under 2.5 is priced at 1.95 with bet365. My call here would be 2:0 for Ludogorets, but of course, everything here only with small stakes.[/quote'] Ludogorets - Loko Plovdiv 1-0 :)
  17. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

    Still 1/2 ain't bad...any thoughts for the game tonight??
    The value offered is terrible. Ludogorets should win this, but 1.20 is ridiculous, given the hardships Ludogorets have in front of goal. Maybe if you feel like playing, Under 2.5 is the way to go. It's a Monday game (they tend not to be very prolific), both teams feature many unders this spring and H2H their matches were very under-sih (apart from the last one). Under 2.5 is priced at 1.95 with bet365. My call here would be 2:0 for Ludogorets, but of course, everything here only with small stakes.
  18. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Nevertheless, let's make up the damage with new tips: 1) Slavia - Litex A must-take away victory, because the price is unrealistically good and it will drop. I think that you can even make a small profit before the game by just taking the away price now and trading it on Saturday. Here are my arguments: - Litex are the best team in the league at the moment. They play great and are in top form. - Slavia's only priority is the national cup. They want to win it for their 100 years anniversary which is this month. In the league they play only for prestige - they are in the middle of the table with no prospects of changing their position. Slavia have their 1/2 semifinal for the national cup on Wednesday and it is going to be a very difficult and important game. Slavia will probably rest many players against Litex, and even if they don't, surely their mind will be entirely focused on the cup game. - H2H Litex dominate Slavia completely. They won the last five games. They won 3 out of the last 4 games in Sofia between these teams. - Slavia are a team which can always be expected to "help" teams that need points, when they themselves don't really need them. This has been happening for years and they're notorious for that. That's what happened this Tuesday - Loko Sofia needed desperately 3 points, and they got them from Slavia. Litex need a lot these three points now and I think Slavia won't have the right motivation. Litex @ 2.15 (bwin) - high stakes 2. Chernomorets - Cherno More At first sight, this would seem like a clear "under", given the history of these teams, especially Cherno More which have notorious reputation for being the unders king of the Bulgarian league. However, I really don't think so. I think that the game will be open and expect to see goals in both directions. Here are my arguments: - 3 out of the last 4 games between these two resulted in BTTS. Cherno More's team is practically the same as in those past matches, Chernomorets has got the same coach plus a few players who played in these games. So, these stat should be very representative of the match-up between these teams. - Cherno More have got new coach since the winter - Georgi Ivanov, who was a former striker of Levski Sofia. He might not be the best coach, but he is definitely a very offensive-minded manager and he is a contrast to the long-lasting tradition for Cherno More to be coached by defensive-minded specialists. This slowly starts to show up as the last two games of Cherno More were over 2.5 and all last three games produced BTTS. - The set-up of these teams conditions open game with attacks coming from both ends. Chernomorets had a very poor start but now they are in a run of two consecutive wins. Their mood is getting better, they are regaining confidence, and now they will play much more relaxed and open, trying to extend their streak. Cherno More is looking desperately for points, and draws might not be enough for them. Moreover, Chernomorets is not a top team that will frighten Cherno More and make them play for the draw. I think the visitors will respond to the open play by the home team with many attacks on their own. Another positive is that the pitch of Chernomorets is in great condition and the weather is expected to be very good. BTTS @ 2.10 (bwin) I will deliver one more tip for the game between Levski and Loko Sofia but I will wait until the full handicap lines are released.

  19. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Sorry guys, got really misled by foolish CSKA coach. I told you top striker Platini is suspended, but he will be replaced by veteran Kamburov, who is still a great striker. However, moronic coach benched Kamburov and CSKA played for 65 minutes without a real striker. I know that CSKA coach is no good, but I couldn't guess he could be so stupid.

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