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Posts posted by Fedar

  1. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 3rd

    Todays news says exactly what I found bad for my club in last post, team managment and players are pretty convinced in their good performance, they know Ludogorets very well, and they are going for a win, nothing less would satisfied them...:unsure
    Hahaha, I know that whenever Dinamo's bosses show arrogance and are "confident in the victory", they fail epically. :-) Like against Austria, which they treated like an amateur team. Well, I am telling you if they underestimate Ludogorets even one bit, they will get huge beating. Anyway, I think that it is very likely that both yours and mine pick are successful. 3:1 home win looks very likely.
  2. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 3rd I also forgot another important detail about Ludo-Dinamo. All home games of Ludo in Europe this season have gone over 2.5 goals. And 2 of them were first legs of two-legged tie (hence, more cautious approach in general). Also, both Partizan and Slovan (their first two opponents) have much poorer attack than Dinamo Zagreb, which makes the over 2.5 here even more likely. I have no idea what are the bookies and the market arguments for believing this will be under-ish match. I smell good value on the overs.

  3. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 3rd

    Again a little bit about my club, n.k. dinamo zg, whose game obviously bookmakers see with different eyes than I do. The same things were happening last season during the Champions League, when only bookmakers believed in dinamo and were generous with the odds, and the same team managed to win one point from six matches with a goal difference of 1:14. This season the team is even worse, mainly because of poor leadership, but I'm not going to repeat the same things I said in the preview of match with Chernomorets, which have proved to be truth in that game and in the domestic league matches. Last week dinamo won as a guests against last team on table, NK Osijek 0:1, and yesterday drew against the poor Zadar. At these matches I saw again the impotence of the dunes, and a game that was anything but team game. dinamo has money in the budget for at least 20 times more than those two opponents together and regardless of the differences in the quality of players and the support of the judges, had a big problems in these matches. What is the best hand, management, behaves as if no one on the side does not understand anything, and after these matches praises team, claiming that it is most important that they are still first in the table and they do not see any big problems. I am confident that their egosim, as many times previously, will come back as a punch in the head. I do not know much about the team Ludogorets, little look to the table, and it is evident that they are doing good. Also I believe that their victory against PSV away gives em right and an additional motive to attack for new 3 points. And last but not the least, the last year dinamo entered Champions League, with a goal in '93. minute, against the Ludogorets , so I'm convinced that there is some special motive for hosts, and that the time is right for the payback. Ludogorets home win 2,05 with Bet365 7/10 Ludogorets AH -1 3,10 with Bet365 4/10
    As a Bulgarian, who nonetheless is familiar with Dinamo, I advise caution here and attention not to over-estimate Ludo and underestimate Dinamo. First of all, I compare Ludogorets in class to Austria Wien, against which Dinamo won and dominated on their visit (although they lost dramatically the tie). Take a note - Dinamo have made very convincing games away from home in Europe this season, while they s*ck at Maximir. All their visits were victories, they played well and fully dominated their opponents. Second note and reminder - the match is not played at Ludo's home turf. It will take place in Sofia at the national stadium. I admit Ludo had more fans than I expected against Basel (around 10,000), when they again played in Sofia. But these were mainly clown fans, people who didn't show any real support and were there mainly for the free tickets (there are rumors Ludo actually paid some fans from Sofia to support them). Anyway, playing in Sofia in front of the quiet crowd and in the big pitch is completely different than playing at the small pitch in Razgrad in front of noisy crowd. Third, while Ludo played very defensive and counter-attacking against PSV, now they will be all about attacking football. That's how they played against Basel in Sofia, that's how they naturally play, so no reason to change this attitude against Dinamo Zagreb. The Croatian visitors are also generally more attacking side with weak defense, despite a few recent low-scoring games in their league. Draw is not a good result for them, hence they will try desperately to win this encounter. All in all, goals are much better option in this match. I am not at all sure in Ludo's win, as they don't feel comfortable playing in Sofia, and Dinamo are very good visitors. But there must goals in this one and I have no idea why bookies think the opposite and give such generous price for overs. Over 2.5 @ 2.11 (Pinnacle)
  4. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

    Yes' date='odds are not great but they represent value to me.CSKA won against Litex and now i can't imagine losing against Lyubimets..Even more in the first half they showed that they have options in attack and can go and play fast and attacking football.I watched Lyubimets against LEvski and they were woeful.AS for CSKA-Litex game CSKA were lucky not to lose because they would if Jonathan wasn't misses 2 great opportunities.Lyubimets is not Litex so they will lose tooI have my doubts about their games against Ludogoretz,Cherno more and so on.How can such a low class team to win those games.ANyway CSKA will win and i have already place my bet at 1.48 so nothing much to say but pray[/quote'] Congrats, Simeon. Both yours and mine picks won! Lybimets-CSKA 0-4 FT.
  5. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

    Nice one' date=' mate !!! I had a look at the stats for this game and I took "over 2,5 goals" - bet in play - at half time when it was already 0-1. After 10 mins it was 1-2. Well done !!![/quote'] I checked bet365 at half-time and they had the insane 2.20 for over 2.5, although the score was 0:1, and according to the radio report the game was lively and with many chances. Really insane pricing in Bulgarian A PFG sometimes!
  6. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

    Lyubimets-CSKA 2 After winning the derby,CSKA will visit newly promoted Lyubimetz who actually started the campaign not bad winning against Ludogoretz but at the end they will be relegated for sure.Anyway CSKA is gaining confidence even they didn't impress at all they remain unbeatean at home and the teams find it very hard to score against them.Luybimets is highly limited upfront not having a clue how to score.They rely on counter attack to do this the only way CSKA not to win is to underrestimate them but with Mladenov being head coach this cannot happen as they are just starting to win games.CSKA forwards look good enough for evey defence with Marcinho,Stoke ex forward Sidibe,Gargorov and Milisavlevic.This is Luybimets 2nd game in 4 days as well as CSKA but while they have depth in the squad and have used to that schedule,Lyubemets have not.This game can easily finish with something like 0:5 but a narrow CSKA win again is very likely to be seen.ANyway i will stick to clear AW which i rate about 9.9/10 although i think we will see the home team being destroyed.
    Simeon, although I am a big CSKA fan, I strongly not recommend such bet. The current price is 1.36 and it is complete joke, given that we (CSKA) have won just one away game so far - 1:0 against the last team Pirin in a very tough and close match. And Lybimets has better defense and more dangerous attackers than Pirin. CSKA struggles to create and to score goals, while Lybimets always parks the bus against big teams and plays on the counter with their fast players. CSKA creates one or two goal chances per game, which is very simply not enough, and if they don't materialize them, it goes easily to 0:0. Not worth the risk at all in my opinion. The way to go here is: BTTS - NO. Mybet gives 1.70 at the moment, and Marathonbet - 1.73 (but their limits suck). This is very good IMO, I wouldn't give more than 1.33-1.36 to such bet. CSKA have the best and most rock-solid defense in the league. CSKA have 6 clean-sheet out of 9 matches. The coach Mladenov is defensive-minded and very pragmatic. If CSKA takes the lead, I am quite sure he will try to ensure that his team doesn't concede and won't go for big score. Against Litex on Monday for instance, after taking the lead he fielded in play 2 holding midfielders which made the total number of defending midfielders on the pitch 4, and the total number of defensive players (without the keeper) - 8.The defense is in full squad and in excellent shape. Also, have in mind that CSKA had an extremely heavy and exhausting game on Monday against Litex. The Reds literally did ran like crazy for whole 90 minutes and they didn't outplay Litex to win - they simply outrun and outfought them. This expenditure of energy must take some toll against Lybimets. I expect a slow and quiet start from CSKA and goal-less first 30-40 minutes. The longer the score is 0-0, the less eager will Lybimets be to try any attacking action. Both teams to score: NO @ 1.70 (mybet)
  7. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Hello, this is my tip for the match Chernomorets - Slavia which starts in one hour. I think the odds for "over" are set way too high at the moment and I believe this game will be more "over"-ish. Both teams are at the same place in the table (divided by goal difference), and they are direct competitors for place among the first seven (hence, play-offs). So, neither of the two teams will be satisfied with a draw here. Slavia is a team which is set to play counter-attacking football. They have fast players, but they are not good in the gradual build-up, that's why they suffer against defensive units. And that's why they score more on the road, when the opposition plays more open football. Their top-scorer Kurdov is in great shape and will be the main danger. They have no important injuries/suspensions. Chernomorets doesn't have very good attacking players, but they create many chances. Against a top team like Levski Sofia last weekend, Chernomorets attacked heavily and had 5-6 great scoring opportunities, although they managed to score only once. On the other hand, Chernomorets central defense is a total mess. Brazilian defender Oliveira was terrible against Levski (stupid own goal and a number of vital mistakes), so he is out of the team today, but his replacement is a reserve guy with little playing experience. The last six games in Bourgas between the two teams featured 5 over 2.5 and only one under 2.5 (2:0). Over 2.25 @ 1.93 (SBO) cleardot.gif

  8. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 So, here is the tip for today's match Botev-Cherno More (10/10 confidence) Botev is terribly hit by injury crisis. Their midfield and offense are missing 4 key players! The most important and best player of Botev - Todor Nedelev, just got injured and will be out till Christmas. A heavy blow for "the canaries" - he is the guy that makes work in creative as well as attacking plan for Botev. He is fast, excellent dribbler, a player with "outside the box" moves and thinking, and the one who carves open opposition defenses and brings much speed and cleverness to Botev's attacks. Without him, they are losing 1/3 of their offensive potential. Besides Nedelev, Botev are missing three other very important players. Best scorer and striker from last season Ivan Tzvetkov - long term injury, Marian Ognyanov - important winger with good pace and dribbling, Domovchiyski - a good striker with many years in Bundesliga. So, to sum up - Botev are missing their three best offensive players from last year - Nedelev, Tzvetkov and Ognyanov, and the newly purchased Domovchiyski, who has been also expected to play key role in the team. Surprisingly, the Canaries have no missings in their defense - all the 4 main defenders, the goal-keeper and the holding midfielders are fit. Cherno More is coming with full squad. They are the most under-ish team in the league and they have been such for over a decade. Last round they made one of the only two (out of nine games) "over 2.5" this season. Interestingly, both overs of Cherno More took place in Varna. Away from home they are 100% under 2.5. Last year games finished 0:0 (in Varna) and 3:1 (in Plovdiv), but two of the three goals for Botev were scored by players who are injured and unavailable tomorrow. I have been wondering between the "under 2.5" priced at 1.75 and the "Cherno More +1.25" asian handicap, priced at 1.80. I will go for the first option, as I see a 1:0 home win a very likely correct score here, and such result will eat much of the profit. Under 2.5 @ 1.75 (SBO) cleardot.gif

  9. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 I have been showing some poor form lately, but I hope I will catch up, starting now. This is tip for tonight match between CSKA and Litex. I like the handicap for CSKA set by SBO - CSKA 0.00 @ 1.79. First of all, it is very unlikely that CSKA loses this game, hence I consider it a safe bet. CSKA has only one loss so far in the league - against the best team in Bulgaria Ludogorets, away from home. CSKA losing at their own stadium is extremely rare event, which doesn't happen more often than once per year or two years. CSKA indeed lost their last match against Litex in Sofia, but before that they were in a series of 14 home matches without a defeat against Litex Lovech in Sofia (11 wins and just 3 draws). So, as you see, Litex is traditionally very convenient guest for CSKA. CSKA is missing their winger Omar Kossoko (important player, good dribbling and pace), but they will have back in their team after suspension their best defender - central defender Jackson Mendy. Defensively CSKA is extremely stable - the best defense in the league, record for clean-sheets and very rarely let other teams have good scoring chances. CSKA attack have suffered so far, but I expect improvement with the arrival of Mamady Sidibe - attacker from Mali, who have played many years in Premiership and Championship with Stoke City. Also young forward Dolapchiev is scoring goals every time he plays (unfortunately he doesn't get many minutes usually). Litex is a good and very stable team, but they are desperately missing their major player for the last several seasons - attacking midfielder Georgi Milanov (transferred to CSKA Moscow). Their creativity is hugely reduced now and they have lots of trouble creating chances. Litex have excellent forward - Colombian Jordan, but the midfield fails to provide good balls. Litex can potentially steal a point from CSKA, but I don't give them much chance to win this match. I believe CSKA will win this game, but I don't advise the straight win, because of the problems that CSKA have with scoring goals. But as I said, I don't think CSKA will lose this match and believe they have at least 50% chance of winning it. So, the draw no bet is an excellent and safe option here. I think the game will end with a narrow CSKA win - 1:0. CSKA 0.00 @ 1.79 (SBO)

  10. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September

    Thanks :ok (I've noticed sometimes I look back at bets like this and wonder why I didn't put more on, or roll them up in accumulators - but in a way that's being greedy and I think it's good to remember it's always a balance of risk and reward. The worst thing that happens to me when my long-odds tips win is I forget to back them at all - fortunately I remembered to back all three this time, and I'm quite happy with my returns last night :))
    No need to do this, mate. No matter how great and researched a bet is (and yours were outstanding), a price of 4.0-5.0 or more always involves a lot of luck. So, it would be stupid to put them in accumulator or increase the stakes. Heavy stakes are for "San Marino no goal" types of bets (hope after they score, now they stay goal-less for a few years). :D
  11. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September

    PSV expected line-up: Zoet; Brenet, Bruma, Zanka, Willems; Schaars, Maher, Toivonen, Park, Matavz, Depay. Definitely over 2.5 is the way to go with such line-up. Zanka is a reserve central defender with little practice lately and he is very poor IMO (I just recall a few games from last season when he totally screwed his team with inadequate performance). I like that Toivonen will play in the position of attacking midfielder. He kind of lost his place in the starting eleven to the young guys, although he is one of the most established players in the team. He will be very motivated and will surely not be taking this game easy. Also Matavz doesn't start regularly and has a lot to prove. Both Toivonen and Matavz and physically strong and tall, and will offer good battle to the tall and powerful central defenders of Ludogorets. On the flanks, PSV loses some strength without Bakkali, but the full-backs are the weakest part in Ludo defense, so Park and Depay should do good job. As I said Zanka is poor and I expect Ludogorets' attackers to make use of him. I see this being a very open encounter. Ludo doesn't play defensively away from home - the only exception was the match with Partizan in Belgrade.
    PSV started with different line-up than expected and with most key players on the field. I did as I wrote - waited till the 30th minute and took over 2.5 at very tasty odds. I can't believe what crappy attitude PSV showed - they were totally outplayed by Ludo, if Ludo were a little braver up-front, it would have been close to hammering. This stupid Europa league is still taking our money because of teams who treat the tournament like a friendly,
  12. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September

    Yes' date='it is true that Ludogoretz doesn't play defensively but now we are at the Group stage and i don't know what strategy will Stoev choose.Don't forget that every points matters so maybe Ludo will sit back and wait hoping to find the net with counter-attacks[/quote'] Yes, sure, but group stage games are very different that knock-out rounds. If it was a two-legged knock-out affair, PSV would have been very careful not to concede, Ludo wouldn't open up if they lose by just one goal (1:0) and so on - many factors against betting on many goals. However, in group stage the score doesn't matter, it is all about gaining some points. And it is first round so I see a more relaxed and open football. Plus, Ludo coach Stoev is not that stupid to try and keep 0:0, because he realizes that the chances for his team to keep clean sheet here are minimal, and they need to score at least once.
  13. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September PSV expected line-up: Zoet; Brenet, Bruma, Zanka, Willems; Schaars, Maher, Toivonen, Park, Matavz, Depay. Definitely over 2.5 is the way to go with such line-up. Zanka is a reserve central defender with little practice lately and he is very poor IMO (I just recall a few games from last season when he totally screwed his team with inadequate performance). I like that Toivonen will play in the position of attacking midfielder. He kind of lost his place in the starting eleven to the young guys, although he is one of the most established players in the team. He will be very motivated and will surely not be taking this game easy. Also Matavz doesn't start regularly and has a lot to prove. Both Toivonen and Matavz and physically strong and tall, and will offer good battle to the tall and powerful central defenders of Ludogorets. On the flanks, PSV loses some strength without Bakkali, but the full-backs are the weakest part in Ludo defense, so Park and Depay should do good job. As I said Zanka is poor and I expect Ludogorets' attackers to make use of him. I see this being a very open encounter. Ludo doesn't play defensively away from home - the only exception was the match with Partizan in Belgrade.

  14. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September

    PSV-Ludogoretz 1(-1EH) 2.3 with local I am taking this one early because i don't believe th price will last very long.Ludogoretz defeated both SLovan who i don't count as a strong team(no offence)and Partizan who is in deep crysis and generally i think that only their emblem is the same with the one from the years they were scary to play against.After this came Basel who were the real test before the groups stage.That was the time when Ludogoretz udnerstood that they are not ready for the big football yet.Broadly speaking Basel played at 100% about 20 minutes in the first game and about 30 minutes in the reversed fixture.Nevertheless it was enough for them to qualify.I want to start with saying that Ludogoretz started the preparations for the new season very early because of their low rate which destined them to begin their european participation from the earliest stage.There have been a month and a half since they are playing Wednesday\SUnday and our teams are not got used to it so it's about time for the fatigue to prevail.Yesterday Ludogoretz lost again this time visiting mediocre team of Cherno more who is in fact a typical home team giving a lot of fight when playing on home ground but still not much of a football skills.Ludogoretz defence problems have been well documented during last couple of months even in their friendly games.Thier CB's(Mantula and Moti)are clumsy and Barth is erratic in his perfomances.They all get hard up when face fast and mobile forwards as we saw happened against Basel and Partizan who were unlucky not to score.Ludogoretz concedes small number of goals in our local championship(which i predict is changing already) but that's why most of our forwards are not very quality one's..I watched Zagreb against Austria vienna and i can tell that Dinamo was the better team in Vienna and i can tell that they deserved to play in CHampions League.Last year DInamo Zagreb defeated Ludogoretz in the last round just before the group stage and just because of that before the draw this year Stoev(Ludogoretz coach)said that he wish his team to be in group with Dinamo and this time to win.Well now this wish came true and i want to see how that's going to happen.. Stoev was assigned as a Ludogorez coach a couple of monts ago and the results came as an euphiria,but now the magic of the new coach is gone and he has to start working...I don't see this happening but we shall see.....PSV is a team much similar to Basel.They pass the ball very fast with all of the players been technically gifted.They finish in top 3 of Netherland every year which i count to be in top 8 leagues in Europe.I cannot see anything else than demonstrative PSV win which will give the groups clear sign who is the boss and what will happen to the other teams visiting Philips Stadion.I think they will cover -2EH but let's stick to -1EH for now P.S the odds have already drop to 2.00 with bet365 Update:PSV will be without their captain Wijnaldum who is actually a big miss and Kerim Rekik is out too. For Ludogoretz out is Minev,who has an important role in both our national team and Ludogoretz.He will be replaced by Choco who is far from,Minev's form.It's important to notice that statistic is in favour of PSV.Bulgarian team has never been able to get something against PSV,even more we have never scored even a single goal against them and Bulgarian team has not registered a victory or draw at the start of the group stage of any European club competition when he was a guest in the first game. It's reported that the interest of the fans of PSV is too weak and about 11 000 people are expected to come at the stadium,which is good for our team but not of great importance.SO my bet is not in danger.
    It is good to remind that PSV has very important game on Sunday - the big derby with Ajax. They will surely keep an eye with it. Otherwise, I agree with your analysis and I would have gone confidently with handicap bet if it wasn't for the game with Ajax. Now, I personally recommend live betting and over 2.5. Price of 1.60 is not that good, but a live-bet will give you overview of PSV's attitude and tempo, and within 10 minutes I guess that the Over 2.5 will reach satisfactory levels of 1.75-1.80. Ludogorets are more than capable of scoring and I believe they will do.
  15. Re: La Liga > 14th - 16th September Mustafa, Atletico is one of the teams with the most clean sheets in Primera, especially at home games. I wouldn't say they play necessary attacking football - they play very physical and aggressive pressure football, which is the reason why they so often keep clean sheets. The last ten games between the two teams shouldn't mean much, because they were played relatively long time ago, when Diego Simeone wasn't managing Atletico. Atletico with Simeone and without him are completely different teams with different styles.

  16. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Hello, this is my tip for the match of the Bulgarian football league between Pirin and CSKA which starts in about one and a half hours. I like the odds for away handicap win. CSKA have very big potential, especially after adding new signings in the recent weeks. The big problem of the team has been that they missed the summer preparation and they started their selection few days before the first league match (because of change of ownership). So, the team was lacking basic physical fitness and needed time for the players to stick together. Over the last three games CSKA's performance drastically improved, especially the physical component. Prior to that, CSKA players would fade away in the last 30 minutes, while in the last two matches they first managed with a goal down and man less on the pitch to entirely outperform Loko Sofia at their own stadium and to get a draw, and then they played their best game so far - against one of the two best teams in Bulgaria at the moment - Botev Plovdiv. CSKA dominated them and showed very good and cohesive performance. During the break for international football, CSKA had high intensity mountain camp for further improving physical conditioning. In the end of it, they had a friendly with the leader in Macedonian league Turnovo and CSKA destroyed them by 4:0 and totally dominated them technically and physically. This is a must-win situation for CSKA. Their fans are very demanding and despite the objective difficulties (the lack of summer preparation and late transfers), they already demand results and are dissatisfied with the many draws. CSKA now desperately needs to push on higher gear and accumulate points to improve their position in the table. They play against the weakest team in the group and a certain relegation material - Pirin. Last season CSKA won here by 5:0. CSKA misses only the suspended central defender Jackson Mendy. It should be easy and comfortable away win. CSKA -1.5 @ 1.78 (SBO)

  17. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 10th September

    Be aware that an own goal of either Andorra or Faroes makes you lose this bet!
    Are you sure about that?! I personally don't think so. I remember I had a bet on Shirak (Armenia) to keep clean sheet away at Tre Fiori (San marino). Armenian team conceded after an own goal. If your logic was true, then my bet should have won (Tre Fiori never scored, it was Shirak who scored in their own net). But it didn't. I think all that counts is to which team is the goal registered. So, it may be an own goal, but it is registered as a goal in favor of Netherlands for instance, then it still means that "both to score: no" is a winner.
  18. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 6th - 10th September

    An exception is Northern Ireland, who are big underdogs at home to Portugal, but have won one, drawn three and lost one of their last five home games against them.
    But why would you back an underdog which plays against fully motivated and very high class opponent, when you have similar underdog price for Armenia against Czech Republic, where the class difference between the two teams is much smaller?! Even Iceland is priced 15 against Switzerland, and I feel these two are much closer in class than Portugal and Northern Ireland. I personally don't think H2H are of much importance when considering national teams.
  19. Re: Manchester United v Crystal Palace > Sat 14th September

    they aren't' date=' though. they played well against chelsea but faile to score and losing on anfield is hardly a surprise. liverpool always raise their game against their biggest rivals and regularly get a result there. even when ronaldo and scholes were here, they regularly "underperformed" on anfield and they were saved only by shelvey's red card in the same fixture last year. people forget that united got the toughest opening games possible and I somehow doubt that arsenal or city would cope any better with swansea - chelsea - liverpool in opening fixtures, followed by c.palace game and manchester city right after it. United are champions, they will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing defeat and raise their confidence before derby, they will have Rooney and Rafael (probably) back and are likely to trash Crystal palace.[/quote'] I disagree here. You are saying that everything with United is fine, they just had tough schedule. But I saw nearly all their pre-season friendlies, saw their Premiership games so far, and I think they are in clear down-trend. I know many people downgrade pre-season friendlies, but it is a clear fact that team which performed well in them, showed great form in official games, while these which were poor in summer friendlies, started poor also in official matches. Many important players of Untied have been consistently underperforming, especially these on the wings, and we know that United's power have always been on the flanks. I usually make good money when big teams disappoint and I bet on them to make a heavy back-leash in the next round against poorer opponent. However, now I will stay away, cause I think there are some deep-rooted problems in this United's team, and until they sort them out, I can expect any negative surprise from them, even going into series of disappointing results.
  20. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 My next tip is for tonight's match between Lokomotiv (Plovdiv) and Lokomotiv (Sofia) The game is played at closed doors (due to punishment for Loko Plovdiv for unrest at the stands). This will hugely reduce the home advantage of Loko Plovdiv. Loko Sofia is just one place before the last, but their quality is much higher. They have some very experienced and class (for A PFG) players like Marquinos, Wellington, Bibishkov, Pisarov, Branekov, Trifonov - all of them have played with top teams in Bulgaria and have plenty of A PFG matches and goals in their records. Their coach Stefan Genov is also a very experienced and good specialist. Loko Plovdiv is close in quality to Loko Sofia in my opinion. All these facts make me believe that sooner or later these two teams will get closer together in the table. Tonight's game is a perfect occasion for the away team to mark their improved performance with some good result away from home. I think Loko Sofia will not lose this match and the handicaps look very generous. Loko Sofia +0.75 @ 2.20 (SBO)

  21. Re: Europa League - Thursday 29th of August

    Braga at $1.39 stand out as the best value bet for mine. Not only are they a stronger team in a much stronger league then the Romanian team but they are unbeaten in 13 matches dating back to may. Braga take a 1-0 lead into this leg and are obviously alot stronger at home. Braga win @ $1.39 Betfair 10 points.
    My opinion is that this is very bad value. I would take 1.39 for a much bigger and more pronounced class gap than the one between Braga and Panduri. Portuguese Liga Sagres is surely stronger than Romanian Liga 1, but the difference is not so big, and it is made mainly by Porto and Benfica. By the way, last year Braga played in CL group stages against another Romanian outfit, which is similar in class to Panduri - CFR CLuj, and lost both games to the Romanians. Yes, things are different one year later, but my point is that Braga is not so much stronger than Panduri, as to make 1.39 a valuable price.
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