ElPrincipito007

Thiem Vs Querry
This is clearly a matchup that should be in the interest of Tennis afficionados for profit making purposes. Firstly Querry, like Karlovic, Raonic Isner Khachanov and a few others, are not natural clay-courters, but can produce the kind of game to frustrate or upset the odds. Thiem has been very busy on the courts lately to think that he will easily dispose off Querry. I am not going to use the overworked cliche and try and label him tired, because what happens is that he hears and punishes me rightly. I have seen Thiem many a time in person and I know quite a lot about him not to dare suggest tiredness as a weak point. He comes from the same stock as his predecessor Thomas Muster. Resilient, stubborn and bullish. However, I will be taking this tip against what could be his potential weakness if any - the return of serve. Querrey is fresh, keen to go, and buzzing on serve. Paddy power and most bookies put the handicap at 3.5. I never play handicaps at 3.5 for any reason as it most times turns out to be of no value depending on the particular matchup. Funny enough, the machines in the bookie shops have left the handicap at 4.5. hmmmmm! crazy I say. H2h between the two stands at 1-1. They have never played on clay. I am believing that Querrey should be solid enough on serve to cover the 4.5 handicap. The machine prices might be slightly bad, but for this inclusion, it makes up for accumulator purposes. verdict: Querrey +4.5 to win

I understand the temptation to take Paire, is great but I still think it should be treated with caution. Yes granted that Paire has a better h2h record over Cuevas, however Cuevas is still the most reliable one on the surface and the one with more talent. He is also Ranked ahead of Paire. I read the argument made against Cuevas which said he struggled against Belucci and Mahut? I would not exactly call that a struggle as both of those opponents were credible. First Bellucci has already had some decent games on clay and has respectable form. We also know that any player in the class of Mahut Karlovic and Herbert, who play unorthodox games on the surface by charging at every ball, it can be hard work to beat them. So Cuevas actually did well. I am not saying in any way that Cuevas will win, I am just pointing out that considering his pedigree he can not be a dead certainty to lose. In fact, the h2h record is more reason to be cautious. I will take Coric total games over 20 as a better alternative. I say this believing that Coric will come close to winning a set for sure. Good luck all!!

My main pick today is Paire @2,17
He is doing very well so far, winning against Carreno Busta and Wawrinka, while Cuevas had some problems against Mahut and Bellucci. Furthermore he has a 3-0 (H2H) record against Cuevas without dropping a set.
Other bets: Coric +5.5 games, Kyrgios, Sevastova and Bouchard.

My main pick today is Paire @2,17
He is doing very well so far, winning against Carreno Busta and Wawrinka, while Cuevas had some problems against Mahut and Bellucci. Furthermore he has a 3-0 (H2H) record against Cuevas without dropping a set.
Other bets: Coric +5.5 games, Kyrgios, Sevastova and Bouchard.

Mannarino @1,63: he has a 6-1 record on clay this year. Donaldson picked up as lucky loser.
Escobedo @3: I think he has more chance than the odd suggests. Especially a bet against Lopez, who can't convince me this season.
Suarez Navarro @2,14: After a dissapointing beginning of the season, she is playing better and better. Wozniacki also had a difficult first match. For me chances are 50-50.

Hi Guys,
Two matches from me today:

Johanna Larsson - Francesca Schiavone: Schiavone @2.25. 
For me Schiavone is the better player on clay. She recently won against Larsson in Bogota (7:5, 6:4), and has two wins against Larsson on clay. What worries me is that Schiavone has a lot of matches recently - 10. 5 matches in Bogota and 5 in Rabat and she has to travel from Morocco to Madrid. However, I think she is going to win here.

Caroline Garcia - Qiang Wang: Over 21.5 games @2.10
Caroline still didn't play on clay this year, also for the past year on clay she has 7:7. I think she is more focused on doubles with her partner Kiki Mladenovic. On the other side Wang is not shining on clay but she is a fighter and can upset Garsia or at least take a set.

Good Luck! 

Bankroll
Last selections: -0.21 pts from 20 bets
Overall: +83.52 pts from 1276 bets (+6.55% yield)
 

Idem.
One bet today: Basilashvili @1,97
Despite Taro is doing quite well so far in Barcelona, he have problems when playing on a higher level. Basilashvili is a decent clay player, who lost in Monte Carlo against Bautista Agut in 3 sets.

Diez +4.5 games @2,14
Where does that come from? Diez didn't drop a set in his 2 qualy's so far. While Almagro has bad results this season for his standards.

Edit: Updated.

is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.
ruud to win at 3.50
ruud to win a set at 1.80
medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.
good luck this week

For a bit of beer
The president nowadays is his son btw  

Never bet against RSC Anderlecht, it's a lesson
Will be in Manchester next week

It is ok to bet against them these days as they are no longer able to buy the referee, Van Den Stock is no more, along with his ref.

I 'll go for 2 (big) underdogs today:
Khromacheva @3,04: she is playing very good on clay this year. Okay, it's Challenger-level, but I think she has a better chance than odds suggest. Arruabarrena needed 3 sets against Perrin (WTA 198).
Vickery @4,30: both aren't playing good at the moment, but Errani has a bigger name. At this odds, it's again worth a try.

I 'll go for 2 (big) underdogs today:
Khromacheva @3,04: she is playing very good on clay this year. Okay, it's Challenger-level, but I think she has a better chance than odds suggest. Arruabarrena needed 3 sets against Perrin (WTA 198).
Vickery @4,30: both aren't playing good at the moment, but Errani has a bigger name. At this odds, it's again worth a try.

Unlucky with Stakhovsky, lost with better stats.

I am going for the value bet on Stakhovsky @3,01 today.
He passed already the qualy's with 2 easy wins. Robredo isn't the player he was anymore, so I  think odds on Stakhovsky are definitely worth a try.

I am going for the value bet on Stakhovsky @3,01 today.
He passed already the qualy's with 2 easy wins. Robredo isn't the player he was anymore, so I  think odds on Stakhovsky are definitely worth a try.

Gavrilova @2,61
I expected odds like around 2,2 for her here. Both form and performances on clay are a bit similar.

Gavrilova @2,61
I expected odds like around 2,2 for her here. Both form and performances on clay are a bit similar.

Agree agree.