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CzechPunter

April 17 - April 23

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is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.

ruud to win at 3.50

ruud to win a set at 1.80

medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.

good luck this week

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that one of robredo was out of nowhere.. not even mullers biggest fan expected a victory today... 

and ruud was a bit disappointing, led 2*-1 in both sets but ended up losing 6-4 6-4 and that's all for me in this round. interesting to see what simon is capable to do against djokovic 

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Back Albert Ramos to beat Carlos Berlocq at 1.62 with Paddy Power

Fair play to Berlocq for what he's done so far in Monte Carlo, but Ramos should be a bridge too far, he's just a classier act nowadays. He was able to beat Berlocq a couple of times a few years ago and he's the only man who's improved since then in this match-up, so I think he's worth backing here. 

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22 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Glad that I avoided Robredo, crazy stuff though. 2-6 2-6 against Muller after beating Dimitrov last week? What's going on?

My bet is that Dimitrov basically just tanked in Marrakech while collecting the entrance money (or whatever it is called). It was surprising to me that he even wanted to play there before the big claycourt tournaments like Monte Carlo.

Robredo looks like he's heading into retirement soon. His backhand was very weak and he couldn't even produce good points with his forehand either.

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I've made a bigger bet on Sela today and he blew up like Klizan few days back. He also got penalty points, what a bad behaviout these guys doing...

 

But i wanted to tell more about Klizan, because he became the player with worst manner in and off court for me. I think that last year he posted facebook posts about match fixing and how everybody thinks that he's doing it. He criticise his fans and slovakian tennis federation also. But now after he lost in MC, he deleted his whole FB page with around 30k fans. Seriously this guy is done....

 

What do you think about him guys? I think he is worse then Kyrgios. 


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It's difficult to decide who tops the list, but the top contenders are Paire, Tomic, Fognini and Klizan. Don't think there's anyone worse than these four. Kyrgios seems to have an improved attitude this year and especially the last two months. 

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is tennis really profitable? it seems these players are so 'fragile' and unpredictable its almost impossible to call it.

the other day someone whos name escapes me won 6-0 1set, and went on to lose both 2nd and 3rd?

 

guessing this is why glory hunters stay away as much as possible? 1/20 dropping to evens seems a current trend happening over and over.

then you look at tempers etc lol. and emotions. these are professional sports stars. i would hate to see what they are like without the psy coaching.

so many are like big kids its unreal.

 

i salute you czech and the others for putting up with it. and not going insane.

Edited by MysticMoron
clarity

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1 hour ago, MysticMoron said:

is tennis really profitable? it seems these players are so 'fragile' and unpredictable its almost impossible to call it.

the other day someone whos name escapes me won 6-0 1set, and went on to lose both 2nd and 3rd?

 

guessing this is why glory hunters stay away as much as possible? 1/20 dropping to evens seems a current trend happening over and over.

then you look at tempers etc lol. and emotions. these are professional sports stars. i would hate to see what they are like without the psy coaching.

so many are like big kids its unreal.

 

i salute you czech and the others for putting up with it. and not going insane.

We do go insane! :eek

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2 hours ago, MysticMoron said:

is tennis really profitable? it seems these players are so 'fragile' and unpredictable its almost impossible to call it.

the other day someone whos name escapes me won 6-0 1set, and went on to lose both 2nd and 3rd?

 

guessing this is why glory hunters stay away as much as possible? 1/20 dropping to evens seems a current trend happening over and over.

then you look at tempers etc lol. and emotions. these are professional sports stars. i would hate to see what they are like without the psy coaching.

so many are like big kids its unreal.

 

i salute you czech and the others for putting up with it. and not going insane.

I'll have a go at responding in a bit more detail to your post. In my opinion betting on tennis is no different to betting on other sports like football. What I mean by that is whether you bet on tennis or something else you are always dealing with risk. There is no escaping that. It's just that the risks are different. In tennis if you bet on a player and for whatever reason they play badly or get injured then your bet is very likely to go down, whereas in football if one player has a bad day it might not matter because there are other players that can make up for it. Looking at it another way though, in a football match there are far more variables than in a tennis match and so logically it should be easier to weigh up whether you think a bet is worth taking or not.

As far as the unpredictability of players is concerned, if you follow tennis for long enough eventually you can get a read on individual players and players in general. This can help to identify traits and trends that will make it seem at least a little less unpredictable, for example the discussion recently about particular players and their temperaments and approach to minor tournaments. Personally, as obvious as it is I always try to remember that tennis players are human and also that playing tennis is their job. To that end, no matter how good they are they make mistakes and sometimes, just like in any job, they don't want to be at work. Motivation is a big thing in tennis and it's one of the things I try to think about the most, particularly when I'm considering backing any of the top players. As an example, Wawrinka is a player that I will not even consider backing unless he's playing in a Grand Slam as I don't think he is very motivated in other tournaments and I would argue his results back up that opinion.

Finally, whilst there have been some strange tennis results in the last few weeks - I'm thinking of Marrakech and even this week in Monte Carlo where Djokovic has twice been pegged back from a set and a break advantage by inferior players - these strange results are highly likely to be balanced out with lots of normal results. That variance is a big part of risk, and like I said earlier there is no way to avoid risk if you are betting on tennis or football or anything else.

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