amity

Two singles and a double for me to kick things off. The first single is Halys to beat Isner and this is ultimately about these conditions not being ideal for Isner. Halys is a decent clay court player and he's at home and if Isner has to rely on tie-breaks things could get interesting. Second single is Pera to beat Teichmann and although I can understand the love for Teichmann, Pera is the kind of player that can beat almost anyone when her game is on song. I'd expect Teichmann to win, but Pera is the play at the prices for me. The double is Zapata Miralles and Sasnovich to win and is about taking on their opponents. Mmoh much prefers hard courts and Wang hasn't had a decent result on clay at this level for some time.
15pts Halys to beat Isner @ 2.70 Boyles
20pts Pera to beat Teichmann @ 3.40 365
10pts Zapata Miralles (vs. Mmoh) x Sasnovich (vs. Wang) @ 1.92 365

FAA might have lost in the opening round of the RG last 2 years but he has a new coach last year, Toni Nadal, the ex-coach of Rafael Nadal.  FAA is much better prepared this time and in much better condition compared to the last 2 editions.  Therefore I think winning the 1st round this time within 4 sets is within his ability.

Alright, it's the French Open time!
Who Will Go Further - Novak Djokovic to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.90 with Bet365
Despite Alcaraz being such a great force recently, I think that Djokovic is the stronger player in the Bo5 format still and that he has an edge going into this tournament. His Rome performance was much better than in Madrid and I think that he's peaking for the occasion, while Alcaraz is bound to receive a setback at some point, it just happens that way more often than not. At 1.90, this looks worth a shot to me.
Ons Jabeur to win the 3rd quarter at 3.50 with Bet365
Jil Teichmann to win the 4th quarter at 8.00 with Bet365
Two in-form players and the withdrawal from Teichmann in Rome looked more like a precaution to me. Two wilder punts, of course, but I like the odds.
Aslan Karatsev to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1.75 with BetVictor
It's form against class here, and I'll go with class. Karatsev has to start caring finally and, honestly, many of the matches he's lost on clay so far were reasonably tight and against tougher opposition than Carabelli. With so much on the line, I think there's every chance he'll raise his level and show his class again. Wouldn't back below 1.57.
Donna Vekic to beat Mirjam Bjorklund at 1.57 with Pinnacle
While I'm not ecstatic to back Vekic, I think this is a good price for her to continue her resurgence against Bjorklund, who'll be making a GS debut and who should find this more challenging than Buzarnescu, who Bjorklund beat to qualify in a pretty wild match that could've gone either way despite the scoreline. 
Stanislas Warinka to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Wawrinka was struggling and, to be fair, we still don't know if he can last 5 sets. Moutet has been pretty awful recently, though, and he can be all over the place when things stop going his way. I've seen some of Moutet's recent matches and the odds just seem to be too favorable for him to my liking.
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.67 with Pinnacle
This looks like one of the bigger WTA mismatches in the first round, Jeanjean has no results at all at this level and there's every chance that she'll just error herself out. NPD has made a lot of progress recently and has plenty of experience with these match-ups.
Christian Garin to beat Tommy Paul at 1.80 with Unibet
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Maxime Cressy at 1.42 with Pinnacle
David Goffin (-1.5 sets) to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.78 with Unibet
Not much to be said for these one honestly, I think that the odds are just about worth it, but wouldn't go much below, particularly on Garin. Lehecka was awful last time out and Goffin has already beaten him in this season, while Cressy just shouldn't do this unless Basilashvili breaks mentally.

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

Well, the most striking element is that we now have the ATP and the WTA odds turned around from what we had in so many previous years that I've already lost the count. We always had one big ATP favourite heading into Grand Slams and plenty of long shots, while the WTA was a right mess, only perhaps when Barty was in and in form (after Williams times). Now, the ATP is quite open, while the WTA has one big favorite in Swiatek. Hilarious.

@CzechPunterwhere are the RG picks?

A long time ago I used to think that value only really existed at odds against, and it's a line you see trumpeted all over the place. The reality though, and it makes perfect sense, is it can exist at any price.

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

For my system I am not betting sets or handicaps. Just straight low priced favorites to win with certain conditions.

very interesting and very good analysis, thank you.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

Well, I think the after-match discussion adds a lot, even for myself, so I'm more than happy that it exists and I'm very grateful to everyone! Your post comes across as perhaps a bit offensive, so please tone it down, thank you!

100% , thats why I myself am on this forum, to learn from more experienced people and their analysis. It's all about taking what you ve learnt from your losses and applying it in future bets. 

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

They also understand the game totally, so they are very selective regarding which tournaments they play, what points they are defending etc etc. Very similar to a golf handicap cheat who knows exactly what he can score in every round, to still maintain a high handicap.

Definitely seems like it's too easy to just cruise. Fognini plus the likes of Paire and Basilashvili only need one or two good tournaments a year and then they can lose nearly every other match they play and still be ranked top 50.

Also no hunger, they are too well off financially. Just going through the motions, collecting 250K a year and playing out the last few years.

Fognini had an injury time out. Heaven forbid that one of my runners retires when losing. I have bet against Radacanu 3 times and every time she was losing, she quit the match. It's a joke that a journeyman like Kokkinakis wins here ... his game is so limited.
 
Question: How many points will Radacanu lose when she gets beaten 1st or 2nd round at the US open? I think she got 40 from the qualifiers and 2000 for winning, but if she cannot defend her win (as expected), she could lose close to 1900 points. WOuld put her down in the 60 world ranking bracket.

The problem with Fognini is always one of motivation. Unless he's a big price and unless it's a tournament where I think he'll care - what do I know by the way - I leave him well alone. Like Stephens yesterday, he's a player that I'm no fan of because there are times where he doesn't try and just gives up. His high level his high, but his low level is dismal.

I see Fognini not playing so well. Hopefully he wakes up from his siesta soon. Even half awake he should be good enough. Maybe he doesn't like playing on Tuesdays?

I think I was trying to say that he probably looks up to where Zverev is, at a similar age.  But no big deal. Baez and Fognini need to get into gear ?

FRENCH OPEN QUALIFYING:
I find these times between main tournaments quite tricky. French open qualifying is difficult. It's simple, lower ranked players are more inconsistent. I think the trick to winning here is to find players that have just missed making it into the main draw. You need  a source of information to make a 1st selection of possible picks. So look at something  like this;
https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2022-5-16&countryCode=all&rankRange=101-200
and find those players ranked 100 to 165 that are not automatically in the main draw. These are the best of the rest.
SO you take a guy like Fernando Verdasco playing Damir Dzumhur.
Verdasco ranked 103 and Dzumhur ranked 160, yet Verdasco is at 1.8 and Dzumhur at 1.9 . For me, Verdasco is great value based on being 57 spots higher in the rankings. I don't particularly like him (abusing the ball kids), but I think he wins.
Paul Jubb (ranked 266) versus Christopher Eubanks ranked 156, yet Eubanks is almost at the same price, and on bet365 Eubanks is a the underdog at 1.9 . Eubanks for me here.
My 3rd bet here is Andrej Martin to beat Luca Nardi. Martin up 44 places in the rankings to a position of 130, while Nardi is ranked at 200. Yet Nardi is a big favorite, which really does not make much sense.
I'll take all 3 as small stake singles tomorrow, and as a (smaller stake) treble.
I didn't look at the WTA rankings but you can do similar.
ATP GENEVA
If Fognini half shows up he wipes Kokkinakis off the court. Fognini is just one of those crazy talented players ...  I call them showbinkies! Hitting that off the charts incredible shot, is sometimes more important than winning (to them). Last tournament he lost to Sinner, but for a reasonable period he just hit the ball incredibly. Winners from everywhere. He's just gotta be focused for 90 minutes and this match is done. Kokkinakis simply can't live with him.
ATP LYON
De Minaur is going to beat Humbert. A perfect style matchup for him. Essentially get 90 minutes of match practice against an opponent that can't beat you. Not so crazy about the odds of 1.4 on De Minaur, but I expect him to cover the -3.5 game handicap easily (odds 1.8). Humbert has zero confidence at the moment. He has not been beaten in recent weeks ..., he's been bludgeoned, and it has to have negative subconscious implications. 
WTA FRENCH QUALIES Super dangerous, and a good place to lose money. Best stay away from this.
WTA RABAT
Gotta go with the inform youngster, Claire Lui to win in straight sets tomorrow against Rakhimova. Lui should have plenty of confidence and be in a good head space, which should deliver a victory here. I think being a very very good junior player really helps, because they get used to winning, and it keeps them level headed (they know they are only at the beginning of their pro career journey) .
 

Anybody thinking about backing Sloane Stephens in any match ever against any opponent - save your money. She's just lost to #306 Berberovic and couldn't have looked less interested if she'd tried. Based on the last two sets it's a miracle she won the first.

1 pick for the French Open Qualifying match today:

ATP: ZAPATA MIRALLES-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER SELA @ 1.42 pinnacle
Sela is almost 38 years old and it will be his first match on clay for 3 years playing against clay court specialist Zapata Miralles with a lot of good wins on clay recently. Expect it to be an easy win for Zapata Miralles.

 

I d take milman to take a set over gasquet, I just saw what terrible losses richie had in his las 2 matches, Probably ruusovori will also beat paire , but I d settle for him taking a set and milman taking a set.