amity

Humphries most 180s and to win looks good to me - 4/7 with SkyBet

Nice blast from the past tomorrow, RBA against Fognini in Valencia finals! They haven't played each other since 2019, H2H is 8-3 in Fognini's favour.

Cheers Fader, I checked the stats just now and Heta isn't playing much better, looking at his averages and checkout rate, but yeh I agree he's the more likely winner here.
Shame Searle is playing Humphreys as his stats are very good right now, but Luke could well outlast him tonight. 

I saw the Heta match, and he was... mediocre... like very mediocre... or as you said: half decent 😀 or maybe 30% decent😀... still, it's Dolan in a longer format match, Heta should win by a few legs, I think. Doets was more of a danger to him in my opinion.
I pass though.

Expect a Heta win. Dolan has been very poor and like ya say Maik bottled it. Can’t see it getting to a decider either 

I have to say that the National League fixtures in all 3 divisions look really tough this weekend and I only have one bet. It is however a max bet at odds on which is something I rarely do, but confidence is high and for me the value is there. There are 4 other bets at Step 3.   Oldham v Ebbsfleet You could see that Micky Mellon has improved Oldham on Wednesday nightagainst Barnet. Having seen some of the comical goals that Barnet have been conceding of late I think he knew that they could allow Barnet plenty of the ball, but they would get their chances. It is no surprise to see that Barnet had 75% of the ball in the first 15 minutes and then 70% in the following 15, but they did very little with it as Oldham made themselves very hard to breakdown. The first shot Oldham had was the penalty which was gifted to them and Barent were fortunate not to have the keeper sent off. In the 2nd half Barnet equalised with a penalty which ended up being their only shot on target. They had looked more likely to kick on and win the game at that stage, but they didn't have another shot for nearly 20 minutes when the game was long gone. Oldham punished Barnet's defensive mistakes which is no surprise given they have someone of the quality of Norwood. If Barnet had taken the good chances that came their way in the first half after the goal maybe we would have seen a different result, but it was the perfect away performance and Oldham have a talented squad. I rarely tip up odds on shots especially ones as short as Oldham, but for me they look good things to beat Ebbsfleet. They did get a point on Tuesday against Maidenhead, but they created very little and had an xG of just 0.16. They are in dreadful form and Oldham should have way too much for them.   AFC Sudbury v Stourbridge I don't dip into the Southern Premier Central too often as highlighted by the fact I've only put up 3 bets in the division so far this season. 2 of the 3 bets have been winners though and I am doubling the amount of bets had on Saturday. I will also be content if the number of winners doubles as well. Sudbury have won 3 of their last 4 games including beating Coalville on Tuesday night 3-0. I'd make them favs to beat a Stourbridge who hadn't won in the league for 7 games until beating Long Eaton 3-0 on Tuesday. They are dreadful though (just 4 points so far) and Sudbury put 6 past them recently themselves. The value is there in a home win for me.   Berkhamsted v St Ives Berkhamsted aren't much better than Long Eaton and have also won just once this season although 7 draws have helped them get 10 points. St Ives had also only one just once in the league prior to their 3 game winning spell they are currently on. They have beaten Coalville and Halesowen in that spell as well so it isn't like they are beaten rubbish and there is clear improvement in the side. They were 1 up against Aveley in the FA Trophy last week as well before losing 2-1, but that was still a very good effort. If they take those performances into this game then they ought to make it 4 league wins on the bounce.   Mickleover v Nuneaton Despite all the off the field issues at Nuneaton they have been doing really well on the pitch. They have won 8 of their last 10 league games and have won 5 on the bounce. They look over priced to beat top of the table Mickleover who after going on an impressive winning run at the start of the season have now not won in 5 league games and lost to Kettering 2-0 on Tuesday night which was a big shock. I don't think there is much between these two sides and therefore the price on Nuneaton is over the odds for me.   Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley Into the Isthmian Premier for the last bet of the weekend and I think the away side are a big price to beat a Carshalton side who are struggling after a good start to the season. They have won just one in their last 8 league games and were hammered 4-0 by Hastingson Tuesday night. Wingate's last 10 games have seen them win 5, lose 5, score 19 and concede 19. They did lose on Tuesday 2-1 to Chatham, but they are better than Carshalton and I think Wingate are in better nick than their hosts at the moment. 
Prices from Friday around 10am   Oldham 5pts@ 4/6 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Coral (take up to 1/2) AFC Sudbury 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 11/8) St Ives 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to Evs) Nuneaton 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 15/4 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

It starts tomorrow, the last event before the World Championship.
My first thought was of course Ross Smith, but he is in that Price/MVG quarter... the fourth quarter looks to be the most "favorable" to be in at first glance... maybe Heta? If Humphries doesn't win everything (but he does, lol), Searle would actually make some sense... he hit that 9-darter at the Grand Slam, and then was eliminated by... Humphries. And in the second quarter, Gurney looks to have a relatively nice draw... he has good stats, but hasn't won anything in ages... maybe now?
With the longer format from the third round on, the chances of a longshot winner are not that good... I was thinking about Kist, just on the vague assumption he could somehow recreate that form he had in that short spell... he has been useless since then though...

Well... it seems that Luke-Gary was the REAL finals...
 
Anyways, this is the year of Humphries, for sure. Last year, Michael Smith win the Grand Slam and then... well, we'll see.

My quarter final bet was let down by Bunting 180s.
Onto the semis this afternoon, and based on current and season form, the two favourites Humphries and Cross should progress to meet in tonight’s final. I actually quite like the two Skybet boosts they have put up:
Humphries to win, hit 10+ 180s and checkout 128+ @ 4/1
Cross to win, hit 7+ 180s and checkout 127+ @ 11/4
Having the two singles and a double that pays just shy of 18/1.

Looking good for Djokovic fortunately!

At first glance I thought Searle's odds are too high... but then again, it's a long format game, and there is nothing wrong with Humphries's form... I don't EVER trust Ratajski... 😀 Price-Anderson should be a cracker... who knows... Dobey-Wade... who knows... I think I sit this one out, and just enjoy the games. Good luck with your picks.

It's funny, I took 5-0 too as it was boosted but you just knew he'd screw it up. Unlucky on that one.

Frustratingly, Humphries missed two darts to win 5-0 - but at least the 7/2 shot came in.

I can see what you mean @Swami as Djokovic was far from convincing yesterday. However, he tends to find a way - as he did against Rune - and I still think all the other players have bigger negatives right now than he does.

i think Sinner could be a surprise , only thing from what i remember is that he is young and usually gets under pressure and stressed when playing the bigger names; even though in the last 3 weeks he did beat Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Rublev so now he might have become stronger mentally.
 
Alcaraz has played 75 games in 10 months, Zverev 80 games in 11 months, seeing their latest matches i think they might be burnt out ; Medvedev is at 80 , Rublev 81 , Sinner 72 ;
Djokovic played "only" 58 matches so even though he is the oldest he could well be the most well rested, the only player which I feel could be a threat to him is Sinner, right now Djoko is at 2.00 to lift the trophy i can't decide whether to pull the trigger or not because it seems a bit low

Oh lovely. Have a good day mate. 
good luck with those. 
maybe we should get a forum table for the worlds eh  

then Maguire beats him lol

Trump is on a 22 match winning streak ; insane ; when will he lose ?
If he gets behind by 2 frames i'll bet against him because the laws of probability tell me this cannot go on forever
 

Rebecca Marino to beat Jana Fett at 1.84 with Unibet
Marino played a long match against Arango yesterday, but, if she's okay physically, she should be a bigger favourite in this one I'd say. Fett has been playing below the WTA level all year long, while Marino is losing mainly against players that are performing on the WTA circuit. Her serve is also a big asset in these conditions, and, if she was able to hold her own in rallies against Arango, she should definitely have the upper hand in rallies against Fett.

Price, Chisnall, Heta, Cross. The archenemies of a longshot winner, LOL. 

yeah, Wade making the final kind of shows the quality level of this event, this year. Wright was 25/1 pre tournament, which looks huge now. However, a weird event.

What a shame Van Veen couldn't hold it together for the whole match, after being 5-1 up and comfortably the better player til that point. Presumably he got nervous as his scoring and finishing went right down after that and it was just a matter of time as to when Wade would overhaul him. 

Humphries v MVG. Winner plays Price in the final is, I suppose, the most likely outcome and what was expected from the start. The latter rounds we go the more likely the better player wins, I suppose.
On a personal note, I'll be hoping for Dobez vs Humphries now.

Yeh MVG was hitting 140s for fun. Ricardo just too inconsistent tonight unfortunately. And MVG could have won by more if he hadn't gone for that fancy D19 D19 finish! 😆 He's coming to the boil at just the right time is Van Gerwen.

Yeh MVG was hitting 140s for fun. Ricardo just too inconsistent tonight unfortunately. And MVG could have won by more if he hadn't gone for that fancy D19 D19 finish! 😆 He's coming to the boil at just the right time is Van Gerwen.