Mindfulness

I've completed my EPL preview and it can be found here if anyone's interested:

I've completed my EPL preview and it can be found here if anyone's interested:

I'm just waiting for the transfer window to close before I roll out my EPL season preview on the ante-post thread. I won't give away any spoilers apart from the fact that I have Brighton finishing bottom, it's all completely unbiased of course.

Loving the new profile pic, makes me feel a lot calmer & definitely more mindful!
Good luck with the new season, look forward to reading your posts as usual

Finally we get to the start of the new season and looking forward to it being another profitable one. The last two season's especially have been very good and it would be nice to continue that into this one. Obviously being the first week it is going to be minimum stakes only as we start to feel our way into the season, but I do think there is value to be had. Certainly some people have already got some nice value on Alfreton who were amazingly over 3/1 to beat Kidderminster at home. Not exactly a gimmie, but the price was so wrong I thought it was an error. I didn't think it would go so left it alone and now at the time of writing Alfreton are pushing for favouritism so I certainly got that one wrong. The prices for me are right now so they won't be one of the tips. I have 5 bets though to hopefully get us off to a good start.
Salford v Leyton Orient
I have to take Salford on in the game which gets the season underway on BT Sport at 12.30. Orient were involved in the opening game of last season when I put up Sutton to beat them which they duly did as Orient proved very slow to get acclimatised to Non-League life. Now they have a season under their belts and they have a few months under Justin Edinburgh who improved them a lot when he took over. I think they will be in and around the play-offs and that means this is a very tricky opening fixture for big spending Salford. Graham Alexander is going to come up against some very good Non-League managers this season who know what it takes to win games at this level and Edinburgh is certainly one of them. I think they will be vulnerable in their first game of the season and the value for me is certainly with the away team at 14/5 with Marathon.
Braintree v Halifax
As I have mentioned in my ante-post preview I think Braintree are really going to struggle this season and their team doesn't look strong enough to survive at this level. Halifax are probably a bottom half side, but they at least have a side proven at this level which could be key in this opening game of the season. Granted teams that I think will do badly do sometimes win their opening games as Bognor did on the opening day of last season and they ended up going down, but I do think Halifax should be shorter than the 11/5 they are with Marathon to win this.
Eastleigh v Solihull
Eastleigh don't have the big bucks to spend anymore and there is one school of thought that it could help them as they have flattered to deceive for the last 3 seasons now when they did have the money. I'm not so sure myself and have a feeling they might struggle a bit again. Pretty much everyone thinks Solihull are going to go down and I find it hard to understand why. I do worry a bit about Tim Flowers as manager given his shocking record before, but that was a few years ago and he did well alongside Mark Yates last season to keep Moors up. They look a stronger team this time around and I think they might surprise a few people. With that in mind I will back them here at 23/10 (Skybet, William Hill and Betfair) to win on the opening day.
Boston United v Guiseley
Boston are one of my tips in the National League North and I think they can start the season with a win. I really like the signings they have made and they look especially strong up front and should score plenty of goals this season. Guiseley came down last season and I struggle to see them being capable of mounting a promotion push this time around. With that in mind I think the 67/50 on a home win with Marathon is worth taking.
Bath City v Dartford
Dartford should really have won the league last season, but they were just pipped by Havant and I think they might have blown their best chance for now of going back into the National League. They have a new managerial team in charge and losing Andy Pugh to a double broken leg in pre-season was a big blow. Bath could be in for a good season and look to have strengthened pretty well and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they finished above Saturday's opponents. I would certainly make them favourites to win this one so the 15/8 with Marathon looks a good bet.
Leyton Orient 1pt @ 14/5 with Marathon
Halifax 1pt @ 11/5 with Marathon
Solihull 1pt @ 23/10 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfair
Boston United 1pt @ 67/50 with Marathon
Bath 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon

An email arrived July 19
"As of today, Thursday 19th July 2018, Tabcorp UK Ltd will cease providing gambling services on behalf of The Sun and Sun Bets will be closing.
Your funds are – and will remain – safe. Please log in to your account here and withdraw any funds as soon as possible."
i requested the withdrawal and the cash came back immediately. All very efficient so why is the OZ firm departing from their tie-up with the Sun newspaper.
Good article here explains all ; http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/07/tabcorp-pull-pin-on-lemon-called-sunbets.html
"In this week's least surprising news in the wagering industry, Tabcorp have decided to stop the haemorrhaging and get out of the lemon that is SunBets. For a firm to willingly pay around £40m to get out a deal, it must have an absolute shocker.
Let's examine a few of the reasons why:
1 - joint ventures between media companies and betting firms NEVER work.
Both sides think it's a licence to print money, and the deals are usually handled by people with limited knowledge of how the other business operates. In my time at Betfair, the powers at be signed two of these deals, with MSN and Yahoo. Does anyone remember those wonderful partnerships? Those from the betting firm think every reader of the site will sign up and spend lots of money, while those from the media operation are just as gullible, thinking their readers just want to piss money away with any new brand they point them at. Unrealistic expectations puts stars in the eyes on both sides and the contract becomes a disaster.
2 - The Sun is a toxic brand
It might work well with the white van man brigade (who probably prefer to do business in cash) but to many others, including anyone who supports one of England's most prestigious football clubs, they won't touch it with a barge pole. Losing a big chunk of your available market before you start isn't ideal........"
 

It's a bit of a murky one guys, what with Santos being ok at home and having a new coach but in the end I have taken Flamengo -0 @ 1.962 Matchbook
For the markets to make this one a completely level ball is going a bit too far in my view. I don't think anyone would dispute that Flamengo are the better side at present, their away form is strong, Everton Ribeiro returns from suspension + Flamengo can exploit Santos's vulnerability to set-pieces and long shots. The away side with full draw cover at close to EVS is good enough for me.

I believe it`s because Santos are usually strong at home and dismissed the coach which can give a new mood to the players. 
But I like Flamengo DNB.

I do love this league, so many goals and such attacking play. Should be way more available to watch than it is, regardless of the time zone.
@Mindfulness As for Flamengo, Santos were slight favourites in the betting at home to Internacional and Palmeiras too. Flamengo also lost their last 3 head to heads against Santos.

Flamengo +0 is on my short list but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Fluminense has four suspended players.
The odd of Palmeiras -0,5 has great value.

No team has strengthened very well, but two teams have lost important players: Corinthians and Atlético Mineiro. We will keep an eye out.

Less than a week to go until the start of the season and finally I have completed my ante-post look at the various leagues. The last two seasons have both seen over 20pts profit so hopefully at the very least that will be matched and it would be nice to go even better. Hopefully you have already got some nice prices on Billericay and Concord when I put them up a couple of weeks ago. I suspect some of these prices won't last either.
 
National League
 
Only one place to start and that is with Salford who you will struggle to get over 2/1 about now. That is a crazy price to win this league and anyone backing them now needs their head read in my view. If you are sitting on bet at the bigger prices then you will certainly have the value, but the big question is will they actually win the title? I don’t think they will. For me they have the wrong manager. John Askey was rumoured as a possible for the job and he would have been a much better choice than Graham Alexander in my view. It has been proven time and time again in this league that you need to know your Non-League football yet the Class of 92 have gone for someone who hasn’t been near a Non-League club in his career until this point. He could be in for a big shock as others have been in the past. As for the signings most of them do have Non-League experience so that is a good thing for them although despite what the players say they are clearly there for the money. You don’t drop down from League 1 back into Non-League football if you aren’t getting paid more cash. As for Adam Rooney to me it seems crazy that he would turn down playing big games against Celtic and Rangers to play Solihull Moors! Money doesn’t always work in this league as Forest Green proved and they had to go up via the play-offs in the end. No promoted club has gone straight up either and again Fleetwood could only make the play-offs in their first season. Chances are Salford are spending more money than either of those two, but it is impossible to know for certain. There is obviously a chance they could walk away with it, but for me as good as their squad is it doesn’t warrant the current stupid price and I am more than happy to look elsewhere.
 
Chesterfield are the only other team in single figures and getting Martin Allen in as manager is a good move. He has made some decent enough signings although they were on a transfer embargo whilst a failed takeover was being discussed. That concerns me as I think they are a club who need the extra money a takeover would have brought. They have suffered a double relegation and it might just take a bit of time for Allen to change things around especially if he wasn’t able to bring in more players because of the embargo. Fans will want the play-offs, but I wonder if they might just miss out this season.
 
Leyton Orient improved massively under Justin Edinburgh and as I said at the time it was a really good choice of manager for the club. Edinburgh cut his managerial teeth in Non-League and had plenty of success. He turned around a side who were in a relegation battle at the time and keeping Macauley Bonne is huge for them. They were on my shortlist and I was tempted to back them, but I just wonder about the strength in depth in the squad and they look more play-off contenders than title contenders for me at the moment.
Gary Waddock has had to rebuild again at Aldershot although as we know that doesn’t mean they won’t make it a hat-trick of play-off appearances since Waddock came back. Again they were on my shortlist as I have full faith in Waddock putting together a squad capable of being in contention at the top of the table, but to me they just lack that little bit extra you need to win the title.
 
Wrexham should have been in the play-offs last year and I am certain they would have been if Darren Keates had remained in charge instead of going to Walsall. As soon as he left they really struggled and in the end missed out on a play-off berth. Even when Keates was still in charge they drew too many games and a lack of a goal scorer was a big reason for that. They have gone with rookie manager Sam Ricketts and he has certainly tried to rectify the problem of a lack of goals. For me it has to be a watching brief with them as there is too much guesswork involved about if they can mount a title challenge.
 
Sutton and Boreham Wood were both surprise play-off teams last season especially the latter. Sutton are a bigger price than they were last season when they ended up finishing 3rd, but I can’t see them repeating that feat. Wood are really going to miss Bruno Andrade and he really was the only player who caused Tranmere any problems in the Play-Off Final. I think they will slip back into mid-table this time around. I tipped Dover to go down last term, but I really should have known better given how well Chris Kinnear has done there. He has had to rebuild again, but he will surely have them nearer the top than the bottom. Hartlepool are interesting with Jeff Stelling now heavily involved in the club. They have made some interesting signings and they should certainly do better than last time around. They weren’t quite on my shortlist, but I will certainly be keeping a close eye on them.
 
So for me at the prices I am happy to take 3 e/w in the hope that at the very least one of them hit the frame. The first one is Barnet. Getting John Still in as manger was a superb appointment and I have been really impressed with the signings he has made over the summer. Losing John Akinde was a big blow, but they look strong all over the park and they will basically have a new player in Dave Tarpey. He got injured in his 2nd game at the club and is only just on his way back. He proved in less than a month at Maidenhead last season that he was up to the task of scoring plenty of goals at this level and fingers crossed he can get back to peak form. I think they have a good chance of going straight back up.
 
AFC Fylde are the other main pick. They might not have as much money as Salford, but they still signed Ryan Croasdale for £50k over the summer which again proves they are big spenders at this level. They looked like they were going to get nowhere near the play-offs, but they went on an incredible run of form once they got used to the division and fully deserved their spot in the play-offs. That was a bridge too far last time around, but they look stronger this season and keeping hold of Danny Rowe who will no doubt score 20+ goals again is a big plus to their chances. Everything points to them being capable of at least a top 3 finish this time around.
 
The other team are another side who were promoted in 2016 and also reached the play-offs last season Ebbsfleet. They didn’t quite have the consistency all the way through the season to challenge for the title last term, but the squad looks to have evolved nicely over the summer and like Fylde they should be able to improve on their showing last season. They aren’t short of cash either so they have the capability of strengthening if needed.
 
I always like getting involved in the relegation market and although as mentioned above I did tip Dover last year I also put up Woking which continues a good run on this front. Gateshead head the betting and it is easy to see why as they have had to go part-time and cut the budget. They have however also just been taken over so there could be some cash coming at some point so I wouldn’t want to get involved at the odds. Mark Yates did a great job to keep Solihull Moors up last season and that earned him a move to Macclesfield. Tim Flowers who joined at the same time as Yates has now taken over. His managerial career so far is poor, but they have a pretty decent looking squad and if Flowers has improved since he was last in charge of a football club then I think they will survive. Barrow look set to struggle. They were lucky to stay up last season and they might not be so fortunate this time around. Dagenham & Redbridge were tempting. It has been well publicised about how bad things are for them off the pitch and I am not sure getting Peter Taylor in as manger was a good move. As much as I don’t pay close attention to pre season friendlies, Dagenham have actually done pretty well in them so maybe they might be capable of surviving. Havant & Waterlooville won a really weak National League South last season, but Lee Bradbury has made some really good signings and they could actually surprise a few people this season. However the team who also came up via that league might not be so lucky. Braintree snuck into the play-offs by finishing 6th and they were 17 points behind Havant. They don’t look any stronger than last season to me and I think they will really struggle. I put them up a couple of years ago when they were relegated and they look a good bet to me to go straight back down. I will also back them to finish bottom with Skybet as I think they go into the season with the weakest squad in the league.
 
National League North
 
This looks wide open this season with quite a few teams seemingly going for promotion. Stockport head the betting and they probably do look to have their best chance of gaining promotion this time around. I think they will have to have another go via the play-offs though. Chester seem to have steadied themselves after relegation and have done well to get the Salford management duo in. Even so they nearly went bust and as much as they look to have built a decent side they don’t strike me as great value to land the title. York were really disappointing last season when I put them up over Salford. They look fairly strong, but I can see them doing a Stockport and find it pretty tough to get out of this division. Brackley did really well last season finishing 3rd and winning the FA Trophy. I’m not sure they will match that this time around, but they will be in play-off contention. Hereford have had 3 promotions now since reforming and will surely be in and around the play-offs, but I can’t have them as being potential winners. Kidderminster are as short as 8/1 which seems skinny although again they will surely be in and around the play-offs. Chorely always go well and should again. Spennymoor would have been in the play-offs last term if it wasn’t for a big backlog of fixtures and I am sure they can be up there again. Darlington look primed to do better than last season as well and Altrincham should do well after promotion.
 
I have mentioned a lot of clubs there which shows how open it is, but I have decided to back three. Southport are the main bet. Liam Watson has won this league twice (once with Southport) so he knows exactly what it takes and I really like the squad he has built. They had a bizarre season last year going from being unbeatable, to not being able to win, back to being unbeatable before struggling again. They clearly mean business this time around and I think they will go very close.
 
Boston weren’t really on my radar until I noticed how well they had signed over the summer and their front line looks really impressive. Again it seems like they mean business and they look set to have a proper promotion push this season.
 
I put up Alfreton last season and they were pretty rubbish to be fair. However this time around they have Billy Heath as manager and he certainly knows what it takes to get out of this division. He has got players in who he knows well and also know what it takes to get out of this league. At 25/1 I can’t resist having a small play on them e/w in what looks a wide open league.
 
National League South
 
Now I usually wait until the week before the leagues start before I put my preview up, but this division I had two clear teams that I wanted to back (I may add a 3rd nearer the start of the season) and as a few more bookies have gone up with prices, and good ones at that, I am starting my tips a little earlier than usual. Now the 10/1 with BetVictor did not last long once I put it up this morning, but the 8/1 with Betway is still there to take at the time of writing. Now either Betway are happy to stand it for a few quid or the people who follow me don't have Betway accounts! I was in a bit of shock when I saw BetVictor go 10/1 because I was expecting bookies to be really cautious in pricing up Billericay. I thought we would see no bigger than 5/2 and in which case I would have looked to have taken them on, but at the prices they are I have to back them. First and key thing is that Tamplin is no longer manager so hopefully he will stay in the background. I certainly think he realised he was getting in the way during their massive dip in form and I don't think it was a coincidence that once he wasn't around performances improved a hell of a lot. Everyone was expecting them to walk away with the league last season and fair play to Dulwich for pushing them so close. The other issue last term though was the fact they over stretched themselves with cup runs and winning two of them and of course the bad weather which meant a huge backlog in fixtures. This time around they won't have a league cup to play, you would hope they don't take the County Cup so seriously and surely the weather can't be as bad as last season. Tamplin has gone on record saying the wage budget has been cut for this season as he doesn't have to offer so much money to players to play for the team. I also think there will be less players in the squad this time around which will also bring the cost down. The budget though is still massive for the division and there is little doubt in my mind that they have the best squad. Jake Robinson who scored over 50 goals for them last season is a proven scorer at this level having got 24 in the league for Hemel Hempstead the season before in just 30 games. Mosses Emmanuel has been added and he is proven in the National League and he will score plenty at this level. They have added well in other areas of the pitch as well and there is plenty of experience in the team not only at this level but above as well. 
 
Last season they proved on their cup runs that they can beat teams at this level and they beat a team in Harrogate who of course won promotion last season so that just went to show that they had the basis of a team who could already battle it out at the right end of the table at Step 2. This division was not very strong at all last season and although it might be a bit stronger this time around I think their squad last season would have been in the play-offs and this stronger side should be capable of winning the title. I think at the very least they will be in the top 3 though and at the price they look a great e/w bet. 5/1 and 11/2 is available with other bookies and I still rate that a good price. Obviously there is one concern with backing them and that is if anything should happen to Tamplin. I certainly can't see him getting bored if they are contending for the title and anything that might happen off the pitch is a bigger worry. At the end of the day though I think it is pointless second guessing anything and going on the facts we have now and that is they look to have the best squad in the league.
 
I will add to this preview when I write the full one in a couple of weeks and I will talk about some of the other sides who look contenders, but there is one other team who I am going to put up as a bet now because 25/1 (William Hill and BetVictor) is way too big a price. I am staying in Essex as well as Concord are the team in question. They were in a relegation battle last time around and only finished 17th so it might seem odd to want to back them to be in promotion contention this time around, but they have made plenty of statements of intent since the season finished. First of all they got Sammy Moore and Jack Midson in as manager and assistant manager from Leatherhead. They of course had great success there last season and the backlog in fixtures due to the weather and FA Cup run meant they just missed the play-offs. They were quick to announce signings as well and they were pretty impressive and you also have the management team who should be more than capable of still being able to hold their own at this level. Betway are only 14/1 and that would still be on the right side of value so the 25s has to be taken.
 
Not surprisingly since writing the above Billericay have been massive movers and the team looks even stronger than it did when I put them up. The 25s has gone on Concord as well although I would still be happy to take the 20’s at the moment.
 
Dartford should probably have won the league last season and might be regretting not going up when the league appeared to be the weakest it ever has been. They should be capable of going well again, but with a new manager in charge I think it will be more a play-off bid than a title one. Chelmsford are always there or thereabouts and will no doubt be bang in the play-off hunt once again. One season they will surely go up although if it is to be this year I think it will have to be via the play-offs, but a top 3 placing is certainly within their compass. Woking have done well I think to get Alan Dowson in as manager and he has made some good signings I think. The Woking fans have had little to cheer in the last couple of seasons and they should certainly be winning more games this season. Dowson of course did a fantastic job to get to the play-off final last term with Hampton & Richmond and although Gary McCann deserves a chance to manager at this level I find it hard to see them matching last season’s efforts. Torquay were the other relegated side and like Woking their fans have had little to cheer in recent seasons. I have to say though I don’t really fancy them at all and I think they are shorter in the betting than they should be. Bath City seem to be giving it a go this season and getting John Mills from Hereford looks a very shrewd bit of business. If you gave me a 4th pick it would be them and they should be capable of having their best season for a while.
 
I put up Hemel and St Albans last season and both probably should have finished higher than they did. Both should go well again and although they won’t be carrying my money I think they should both be in the play-off mix. Wealdstone are a team who have flattered to deceive in the league a bit, but they again look to have a decent side on paper. It will be interesting to see how promoted teams Dulwich and Slough get on. Dulwich will no doubt be very easy on the eye to watch, but being away from Champion Hill and all the off field issues will stop them being play-off contenders for me, but it is great to see them finally reach this level. Chippenham appear to have strengthened and they might be dark horses to go well.
 
The other tip though is going to be Welling. Manager Steve King isn’t to everyone’s taste, but his record is really good and he has won this league before. I thought the job he did at Whitehawk last season was incredible as he nearly kept them up and they didn’t win a game until New Years Day. Indeed I think I am right in saying that in 2018 alone Whitehawk were 3rd in the table. I thought it was a good move from Welling to get him in as manger and I like the signings he has made. 20/1 is available with every bookie who has the league priced up except Betway who are only 14’s and I would probably have them a shade shorter than that.
 
Evo-Stik League South Premier
 
If you aren’t aware we now have an extra league at Step 3 which means there are now 4 leagues to look at. What that means are fewer sides in each division and in my view it also means that the leagues won’t have too much depth to them. The weakest of them to me looks like being this league and it is one of the reasons why Weymouth are one of my stronger ante-post bets. In the end Hereford won the Evo-Stik Southern Premier fairly easily, but Kettering, Kings Lynn, Slough and Weymouth were all just behind and they in turn were miles clear of the rest. Weymouth won’t have any of those 4 to worry about this season and to me it gives them the perfect opportunity to start making their way back up the pyramid. The squad looks no weaker than last season and that may well be enough to see them take the title. The two biggest dangers for me are Taunton and Salisbury. Taunton won their league by 19 points last season and were only defeated once. There is no reason why they can’t go well again after that superb season. Salisbury were the team they beat into 2nd and I just can’t understand why they are shorter than Taunton in the betting. I’m guessing they have been priced on name and Taunton should be shorter. I do want Salisbury covered however because I do think they under-performed a bit last season and in a weak league they should go close as well.
 
Gosport are a stupidly short price in my view. They were awful last season and as much as they probably knew they had to do very little to stay up I just don’t see how they can improve anywhere near enough to be involved at the other end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Craig McAllister and Matt Tubbs get on there, but they are priced up based on those two names and they should be more than double the price they are. Hendon were defeated on penalties in the Bostik Premier Play-Off Final by Dulwich, but they have lost Gary McCann as manager and I think it will be at least a season of rebuilding especially in a new league. Poole have come down from the National League South and they will be hoping to be in the play-off hunt at the very least and Staines should be as well. Outside of that and it is hard to see anyone having much of an impact and I think Weymouth should be a bit shorter in the betting than they are.
 
Evo-Stik League Central Premier
 
Kettering and Kings Lynn have ended up in this league and not surprisingly are at the head of the market and not surprisingly can barely be separated. To be honest I can’t really separate them either and at the prices I am happy to back them both. Both teams look to have evolved nicely and should be capable of backing up last season’s efforts. If pushed I would just favour Kettering as Kings Lynn have a new manager, but that would really be my only reason. Tamworth should be up their challenging after relegation last season. They have recruited well and although I am not backing them myself I wouldn’t put anyone off if they did fancy them. Stourbridge under performed last season although they had some big losses last summer after a good season before that. They could easily improve and be in the hunt this time around. AFC Rushden & Diamonds are near the head of the market, but for me that is more on name than anything else and they will be more play-off hopefuls than title contenders.
 
There are two I like e/w at double figure prices. Leiston have always gone well in the Bostik Premier and although this is a new league for them they should be capable of going well in this league and wouldn’t have to do too much more to be in with a chance of a top 3 finish. At an even bigger price Rushall Olympic look over priced to me. They finished last season really strongly under Liam McDonald and they should be able to build on that this season. If they do then they can be top 3 contenders.
 
Bostik Premier
 
Either I have got this league completely wrong or the bookies have because 3 of my 4 bets are at huge prices. I have had Kingstonian on my mind to back for this league since May. The reason was they were making some really impressive early signings that signalled their intent of going for the title this season. Last season they treaded water a bit, but after they couldn’t get in the play-offs and they were always safe from relegation as only one team went down, I think they eased off and had this season in mind. With no Billericay or Dulwich around aiming for the title is a realistic ambition for a team like Kingstonian. I was expecting the bookies to have noticed their signings and put them in the front 5 in the betting. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw 33/1 with Bet365. That price is stupid for the level of quality in their squad. Now the one slight concern is at the time of writing their pre-season form has been pretty poor and ideally you would want to see better, but as I have said elsewhere I don’t pay too much attention to pre-season form as it really doesn’t count for an awful lot once the season starts. As I have seen one manager say why would you want your squad to peak in July when you want to be getting to your peak later in the season. The 33s has gone already but the 20/1 on offer is still a very good price
 
Two others I like at massive prices are Enfield and Dorking. Enfield signing Billy Bricknell from Billericay is a superb signing and although they were disappointing last season they did finish in the play-offs the season before and that will surely be there aim at the very least again. Dorking have finally moved to their new ground and they seem to be showing plenty of ambition about making a promotion bid this season. They will want to go well to attract the fans and they should be capable of improving from last season.
 
AFC Hornchurch have been installed as favourites which I find a bit surprising. I know they got over 100 points last season, but I would make them a bit bigger myself. Relegated sides Bognor Regis and Whitehawk are behind them, but I can’t have either. Bognor look a side in transition and were poor last season. If Steve King had remained at Whitehawk then I would have been all over them, but he hasn’t and I can’t have them given the players that have left. Folkestone need to prove they are more than one season wonders after a superb 3rd place last year, but they might well be able to do that. Carshalton, Lewes and Haringey are other promoted sides that near the top of the betting and might be capable of doing well. The one team near the head of the betting who I am betting though is Margate. They drew too many games last season and if they can turn some of them into victories then they should go very close to winning the title. I would probably have them at the top of the market so a double figure price looks a solid e/w bet.
 
Evo-Stik Northern Premier
 
So the final league to take a look at and there is every chance it could be between two promoted sides who both have cash to spend. South Shields are pretty short at 3/1, but for very good reason. They are a rare North East side who have shown the ambition to rise up through the pyramid and they are being well backed off the pitch to do just that. They will be hard to beat, but Basford are also well backed off the field and I am surprised they are available at a double figure price. They looked like they might go through the season unbeaten at one stage and although they ended up losing 4 the league was won well before the season’s end. They certainly should not be underestimated. Finally I am going to also cover Gainsborough Trinity who have come from the other direction. Lee Sinnott wasn’t able to keep them up, but he has been a superb manager since he started at Farsely back in 2003 and their forward line looks really impressive for the level. Speaking of Farsley they could go well and I wouldn’t totally write off the likes of Warrington, Workington and Scarborough either. However I really do think the winner will come from one of the 3 tips.
 
National League
Barnet 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365/Ladbrokes/Coral/Paddy Power/Betway/BetVictor
AFC Fylde 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Paddy Power
Ebbsfleet 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill
Braintree to be relegated 2pts @ 7/4 with 188bet/BetVictor
Braintree to finish bottom 1pt @ 13/2 with Skybet
 
National League South
Billericay 1.5pts e/w at 10/1 with BetVictor (already advised)
Concord Rangers 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill & BetVictor (already advised)
Welling 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
 
National League North
Southport 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365/Betfred
Boston United 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Alfreton 0.5pts @ 25/1 with Betway
 
Bostik Premier
Kingstonian 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
Margate 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Betway
Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365
Dorking 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
 
Evo-Stik League Central Premier
Kettering 1pt @ 6/1 with Betway
Kings Lynn 1pt @ 13/2 with Betway
Leiston 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betway
Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
 
Evo-Stik League Southern Premier
Weymouth 2pts @ 13/2 with Bet365
Salisbury 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365/Betway
Taunton 0.5pts e/w @ 18/1 with Bet365
 
Evo-Stik League Northern Premier
South Shields 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365/Betway
Basford 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
Gainsborough Trinity 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365

Serbia V Switzerland
Red Card given: Yes @ 5.5 Unibet
I was already considering an anytime red card play here but was completely unaware of the political background to this fixture until I read @AlexD's post. The Kosovo / Serbia context may well be an added inflammatory factor but the game will already be on a knife edge as the outcome should go some way to deciding who qualifies from the group. I think the most important thing to consider is that both these teams have players who are card magnets and I'm always half expecting a sending off when I see either of them play. So to have them playing each other along with all the other factors mentioned...
The total cards markets look to be priced correctly for this game and offer no added value in my view. However, 'Red Card given: Yes' looks generous @ 5.5 with Unibet so I will get involved.
 

Serbia V Switzerland
Red Card given: Yes @ 5.5 Unibet
I was already considering an anytime red card play here but was completely unaware of the political background to this fixture until I read @AlexD's post. The Kosovo / Serbia context may well be an added inflammatory factor but the game will already be on a knife edge as the outcome should go some way to deciding who qualifies from the group. I think the most important thing to consider is that both these teams have players who are card magnets and I'm always half expecting a sending off when I see either of them play. So to have them playing each other along with all the other factors mentioned...
The total cards markets look to be priced correctly for this game and offer no added value in my view. However, 'Red Card given: Yes' looks generous @ 5.5 with Unibet so I will get involved.
 

Group H - Senegal to qualify @ 2.5 Betvictor
Senegal are arguably the strongest African team at the tournament this year and I simply don't understand their 'qualify from group' price compared to Colombia and Poland. I see those 3 teams all on a similar level and in my view they should be priced closer together. A play on Senegal to progress to the next round holds some value imo.

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

I already bet Palmeiras -0,5 HA, despite the embezzlement, Palmeiras is a very strong team and has good players to replace.
 

Nobody actually offered an answer why Maksimovic would not travel to Russia, but it is assumed that this is the reason. Interestingly, however, lack of game did not prevent some other players from appearing on the list. Like Grujic or Milenkovic, for example. However, Maksimovic was regular in qualifying.

GL with your bet!

Love the posts @DrO, some of the things you've mentioned I am very concerned about, others not so much. I'm not going to go through each point one by one as it would take too much time but the thing that bothers me the most is the issue with the centre-backs. Why was Nikola Maksimovic not called up? lack of game time in domestic season?
Anyway I will stick with my Serbia selection. You still have a lot of old heads in the first team that can carry you through. Even if the Serbian national side is as corrupt, incompetent and feverishly relaxed as you say it is we can hope that these are just the criteria needed to overcome the uninspired yawn feasts of Switzerland and Costa Rica.
In answer to your original question, no I have not bet much on Serbia to qualify which is why I can keep the selection. After reading your posts I would say backing Serbia to qualify at medium or high stakes is not a recommended play + their odds have shortened since I took the bet.
Thanks once again.

Fluminense - Flamengo RJ
01:00CET
Great game expected here with over 30.000 tickets sold. Flamengo is in better shape, winning three games in a row without conceding (vs Corinthians 1-0, and Bahia 2-0 at home and beating Atletico MG away by 2-0). It will be a tough game because it is classic, but this time I am confident in Flamengo victory, will be difficult because Flamengo did not manage to beat Fluminense yet this year (lost one and one draw). Flamengo will be without midfielder Diego (missing through suspension - suspended by the third yellow card), all other players are fit and ready.
On the other side Fluminense coach Abel Braga will be without best player Pedro through injury, With the problems in attack, it is possible that the tricolor coach chooses to strenght the midfield and play with only one player in front. This would be João Carlos, natural Pedro substitute, who was in the field in the defeat in Curitiba.
 
Jun 08, 01:00Serie A AH+0.5 Fluminense RJ 2.142.03 1.79 / 1.89 Flamengo RJ  
Flamengo RJ -0.5 AH @1,89 sbobet 4/10

Let me continue 

Mladen Krstajic,the new head coach,was a decent player with the decent professional career. His best days as player were in German Bundesliga where he played for clubs like Werder Bremen and Schalke 04. He was also playing for Serbia and was the part of the team which had that catastophic tournament in WC in Germany 2006.
As coach hi has no experience of what sort ever! Zero! Nothing! 

And this is the first and most important reason why i think this tournament will be another dissapointment. Krstajic has no coaching expirience,no right attitude and no authority over players i'm affraid.
And this something that cost us a lot in the past. 
Our shameless FA sacked a coach who maybe didn't was that popular but who delivered and put another man in his place. You simply DON"T do that ahead of WC

Our captain (Branislav Ivanovic,ex Chelsea now Zenit) was stripped of the captain's tape without any explanation.Rumors said that this was done because he was loyal to Muslin. After so many years in the national team as a captain and right before WC? You DON'T do that!

Further,
 Because of everything I mentioned in the first post, it's clear that the new coach is set up to do something else. This something is to be quiet and to not make trouble.For example that means that he "has to take" some players to WC. We have this joke in Serbia that even head coach was suprised when he saw final list/cut for the tournament (don't know if you get the joke - it means that someone else made the list,not him)
You assume correctly that on the list is Sergej, but also several other players who did not play in the qualifications, and many standard players were dropped.
Matija Nastasic (Schalke04) (ok,he's injured), Jagos Vukovic(Verona), NIkola Maksimovic(Napoli/Spartak Moscow),Ivan Obradovic (Anderlecht), Ljubomir Fejsa (Bennfica), Nebojsa Gudelj (Guangzhou), Nemanja Maksimovic (Valencia), Mijat Gacinovic (Eintracht Frankfurt),Nikola Milunovic (BATE Borisov), Stefan Mitrovic (Gent)..all left out from WC squad. You DON'T do that after they made it through the campaign.
In order to make things look even worse, our new coach used some of these players in friendly matches in March and now they are not in the team. If he already wanted to make changes, then in March against Morocco and Nigeria should be played by those who will travel to Russia. You DON'T to that!

Now in the team we have several complete debutants and players who are for the first time in the team. And there are also those managerial players that I wrote about and who are heading to the WC just to be to sell after it..Two of them are from my favorite club - Red Star - Nebojsa Rodic and Nemanja Radonjic. I love them very much,but they didn't deserved to be called up. Especially the first. Then Tosic from Besiktas who played some role in the qualis,but nothing special. Grujic from Cardiff (you know him @StevieDay1983 ) had a horrible season and played a bit.. a youngster from Fiorentina - Milenkovic who is completely unexpirienced at this level,Jovic from Eintracht Frankfurt..etc
Of course that some of these guys are very talented,some of them were part of this golden generation from New Zealand, but the World Cup does not serve to play young players for the following qualifications. And we'll exactly do this. It's WRONG!

If I analyze our system and the positions of individual players it is clear that we will be in huge problems. From 3-5-2 wi'll switch to 4-3-3 E.g.
Defenders
Rukavina (which is a weak link anyway) has no substitute on the right back. Of course, that can be played by Bane Ivanovic, but the problem is that he did not play at all in the qualifications as full-right back, only the position of central defender.
No matter who will start on the positions of central-defenders the fact is that it's gonna be combination of two centre-backs who never played with each other before. And with Kolarov on left side and who is more wing-back player and very attacking-minded i really fear what can happen. Vladimir Stojkovic is our no.1 goalkeeper. On good day he can be fantastic,but on the bad day..well - let's say that he can do "wonders" like Karius. 

Midfield
In the midfield we have this dynamic duo from the EPL - Matic (Man Utd) & Milivojevic (Crystal Palace). They are the spine of this team,but literally don't have the substitude. Grujic is not at this level unfortunately. If one of them gets injured or suspended we're in deep,deep trouble. This is the part of team where we lost the most,i would say. No Gudelj,no Fejsa, no Gacinovic (who is more all-round player) and no Maksimovic from Valencia. 
I gotta feeling that we're gonna suffer defensively..huge

Wingers,offensive midfield
Our most creative players are Sergej,Tadic and Ljajic.
Sergej,like I said,wasn't part of team during qualification time. And because of injury he was not in the squad for the International friendlies back in March. So,this preparation period is actually only chance for him to get with team-mates. He's still very young but because all the rumble with previous coach Muslin,there is h-u-g-e pressure on his sholders to deliver what is expected. I think that if we don't going to get a decent result in Russia,the greatest critics will be thrown at him. And i really don't know how he will cope with this pressure. He can easilly under-perform
Ljajic (Torino) is a talented player i'll give you that,but a player with very problematic mentality and additude. He has long,long history of various behavioral and incident problems with the national team and in his club career as well. Because of this he have joined the team at the very end of qualifications. Frankly - don't know what to expect from him.
Tadic was convincingly our best player during qualifications. He opened the campaign in an impressive manner, and later he slightly dropped in the game. It was not unexpected. After all, he is not really a world class, otherwise he would play in a much better team than Southampton. I expect a lot from him, but I'm not sure how much he will succeed in the new formation and the new role ..
And what is more important no one actually knows what is Krstajic's idea with this three players and does he think to put them on the pitch in the same time? Maybe the following match against Bolivia will give us some answers..
Zivkovic is a very interesting player, but it seems that our coach's idea is to use him deeper in the midfield, which I think he can not play. He's very poor in defense. 
Kostic&Radonjic - i see both of them as a players from bench

Forwards
Mitovic,Prijovic,Jovic

Jovic is new here. Mitrovic is supposed to start every match,Prijovic is simmilar type..the only thing that matters about these guys is that they all lack creativity and heavily depending on their team mates. 

Conclusion
I really smell a disaster here. As you can all see from my analysys there is simply too much of YOU DON'T DO THAT here. Almost half of team is new,coach is new,not a happiest selection...this is simply not the best squad. More the most popular choice,a team gathered to be loved by the fans.
And there is a big problem beyond every other that i mentioned. It is a question of mentality and behavior. 
Our teams in the past have already shown such weaknesses. Even at the World Cups. Personally I feel the lack of the right motive even though this is the biggest competition. I do not see the idea that this is the climax of the season and even career. There are  signs of a feverish relaxation, as if there is not enough focus ... like going on a vacation, not a big competition. The team lost the discipline that adorned him with the previous coach and I struggle to see how Krstajic gonna handle this.
If we lose the first match against Costarica i think that we will completely fall apart

Betting angle
Serbia not to qualify @1,70
Serbia total points 0-2 @3,0 (or even 0-1 @5,0)
Serbia total points 0 @15

Congrats @StevieDay1983 on returning to the big time! Can't wait to see what fresh and bizarre litigation Vincent Tan will try and bring against the mighty Palace this season. Be good to have your insights on Cardiff over the course of the season + 'month of Warnock being handed his P45' betting market will hopefully be available soon.