Torque

😮I thought this was a new post after yesterdays action. But no. Still, worthy of a bump and 100% agree with it, as I was on the receiving end of it in the past and don't post as much now. 

After reading about yet another spat between users on this part of the forum, and as a long-term poster here of more than ten years, I thought I'd put forward some thoughts about how to improve the atmosphere on these threads which it seems to me has been going downhill for some time. These thoughts mainly take the form of how I believe a forum like this should operate. Some may agree with me, others may not and that's fine as long as disagreements are handled in the right way - and that's one of the things I'll be discussing later.
Firstly, as far as I'm concerned the purpose of the Tennis Forum is to share picks and information to try to help other users to come to an opinion about what they might choose to bet on, whilst bearing in mind that we all bet at our own risk. If anybody chooses to follow any picks put forward by other users then they need to accept that losing is not only possible but inevitable, even if the pick is well reasoned and deemed to contain value in terms of a price that implies a lower chance of a result occurring than is actually the case, and even if the price is short.
What this forum shouldn't be about, but increasingly seems to be, is arguing about picks to the point of personal attacks and boasting about wins as well as demeaning anyone who puts up a losing pick. I'm not interested in vaunting tipping superiority or belittling others and I'm not interested in gloating or the goading which also seems to be becoming a regular occurrence, nor am I interested in winning an argument or trying to convince others that I'm right and they're wrong.
There seems to be more and more aggressive and confrontational content here, which is sad to see. It should be simple and straightforward to run a friendly forum and all that's required to make that happen is for users to be respectful of each other. If somebody puts up a pick or some thoughts about a match or tournament, by all means other users can disagree or offer a different perspective and that's conducive to a healthy conversation which should lead to more informed betting choices. What's not acceptable though is to respond to what someone has posted with derogatory remarks, either about what they've posted or the poster themselves.
As for critiquing a pick after the result is known - another increasingly common sight - that can be a useful exercise in terms of bets going forward, but in terms of the simplistic view that a winning bet is a good bet and a losing bet is a bad one there's no merit in it at all. What counts is the long-term. If you place bets with a better chance of winning than the odds suggest, eventually you will get ahead. It can take some time though and that's down to the variance associated with probability, and probability and the assessment of probability is what betting is in its most distilled form and that's why you can lose lots of bets in a row and look as though you don't know what you're talking about. Conversely, it's possible to win many bets in a row without having any idea what you're doing.
Finally, despite all the gloom of the above, there are plenty of users of this forum who post respectfully and have good information and insights to share. It's my hope that by starting this conversation, the forum can return to being the friendly and helpful place that it's historically been. There will always be the occasional troll or misjudged post and that's to be expected, but recently the atmosphere in here has turned pervasively toxic and it would be good to arrest that. Nobody should feel like if they post a losing pick that they're going to get abuse for it, or that they'll get shouted down for voicing an opinion. That's not the way this forum should be.

As a base in Tennis I take the Elo-Estimation of two Webites that offer them for the probility. And then I take corrections according to form, H2H, cross-references, ... And by no way I reached the level of systematic approach and automatisation that I want... 😁
I keep record of my bets since last August (overall not only tennis, also football, darts and wintersports). Since then I have 1338 bets (which I know is not that much) and a ROI of a little more then 10 % (tennis might be lower then 10 % i feel, but for sure positive), and I know that is not as good as othersare especially compared to the low nuber on bets I have kept record off. But I am profitable since 2 years (although as I said only very low stakes). I am no way a pro, nor do I bet for living or for earning money. I do it just for fun, because I like Sports and as long as I don't lose on the long run (if i start losing on the long run I will stop for sure). That said, there are many more better sources (eg. CzechPunter and four-leaf) than I am. But I like being on a forum and exchanging bets and ideas. I also like exchanging opinions (if i have the time) and discussion, but what I like most is netiquette in a forum. In can also critizise with appreciation. Waht I dislike is being critizised for English not being my first language, and for spelling names incorrectly or for typos.
So just let's have fun and interesting discussions in here. 🤩
Greetings from Vienna.

Bump

Bump

Well, I wont argue with you @four-leaf
I just want to say that my estimation for the probabilities were bigger than the probabitity the odds of the bookies reflected.
Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 --> Bookie: 39,1 %;  my estimate: ~ 49 %
Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 --> Bookie 30 %; my estimate ~ 44%
Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225  --> here I already said my estiation was probably incorrect.
O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 --> Bookie: 33%; my estimation: ~ 50%
Halys - Harris @3.27 --> Bookie: 30,6 %; my estimation: ~ 40%#
So for me they were valuebets. Two of them were lost very close, one worked out, one was interesting when one watcheed the game (Tiafoe - Coric) and on one i obviously misjudged, yes.
You might of course disagree on my estimations, I could also elaborate how I got to them (mixture of ELO, Form, H2H, cross-references) and you might still disagree. Well that happens.
But in the future, as you wish, I will only put in my bets, when I have time to elaborate, why I pick them and why I see value. As I don't have the time for this anymore now, I just don't post them for today.
Have a nice evening (it is late in Austria now).
PS.: English is only my 2nd language, just before you criticize my formulations or my spelling too...

Looks as though the game's up this time. Missing far too much. It probably doesn't matter anyway as far as the final goes - Ronnie is dialled in.

That's an unnecessary degree of pedantry and looks slightly silly given it's close proximity to multiple misspellings of "Sweeny".
I don't know about anyone else put I find that degree of criticism of someone else's selections (after they have lost) slightly excessive. Please stick to constructive comments preferably before the event. Otherwise it might look like there is an intention to discourage someone else from posting, which I'm sure is not the intention.

Bolton game abandoned, so runs as winning double on other 2

Southampton v Sheffield Wednesday (1) 1.40
Blackpool v Exeter (1) 1.50
Bolton v Cheltenham (1) 1.40
10pt treble

Looks as though the game's up this time. Missing far too much. It probably doesn't matter anyway as far as the final goes - Ronnie is dialled in.

Allen needs to start better. He seems to recently start games poorly and has gone 3-1 down to Higgins and 4-1 down to Selby. Seems to have about 20 cups of tea a frame, too  

I'm not sure what Allen match you watched. He didn't start well and gave Selby the first two frames but the back end of the match he played well and hit 2 centuries and 2 50+ breaks. That's not 'crap'

Would be nice to see Allen win without going heavily behind for once lol 

Exactly. Moaning about the venue almost looks as though he's getting his excuses in after underwhelming against Hawkins.

Best of luck @Foo_Fighter but for me Korda has absolutely no chance and isn't worth backing even at those odds. The quarter maybe, but not a prayer for the tournament. He's far too flaky. I'd love to see Murray do well but it's very difficult to see him having any sort of run as he seems to be involved in long slog-fests every time he plays and his body just isn't up to that any more.

Best of luck @Foo_Fighter but for me Korda has absolutely no chance and isn't worth backing even at those odds. The quarter maybe, but not a prayer for the tournament. He's far too flaky. I'd love to see Murray do well but it's very difficult to see him having any sort of run as he seems to be involved in long slog-fests every time he plays and his body just isn't up to that any more.

You could also make the argument that a smaller sample should use 99%, whilst a bigger sample might be more able to tolerate lower confidence of 95%. I'd be looking for a bigger sample that satisfied p < 0.01 myself.

I use 99%. The extra 4% makes a big difference.

That worked out. Ronnie went odds against when it looked like he might go 4-2 behind, but after making it 3-3 he didn't lose another frame. Poor standard from both though - I thought Hawkins might get ahead by playing better than Ronnie but it was actually because Ronnie was worse than an average Hawkins. Pot success not even close to what's required to win this tournament so unless it was just on off day from O'Sullivan he'll do well to win the tournament on today's showing.

That worked out. Ronnie went odds against when it looked like he might go 4-2 behind, but after making it 3-3 he didn't lose another frame. Poor standard from both though - I thought Hawkins might get ahead by playing better than Ronnie but it was actually because Ronnie was worse than an average Hawkins. Pot success not even close to what's required to win this tournament so unless it was just on off day from O'Sullivan he'll do well to win the tournament on today's showing.

Can't argue with any of that. Hawkins displayed his usual troubles closing as well. Unless O'Sullivan just doesn't turn up, I can't see Hawkins winning. First of all he's got to get the lead - which he might do - then he's got to finish it and that might be the worst aspect of his game. Dream scenario in-play is Hawkins makes a fast start and then back Ronnie. Hawkins has serious problems getting over the line and nerves seem to really affect him at the business end of a match.

Can't argue with any of that. Hawkins displayed his usual troubles closing as well. Unless O'Sullivan just doesn't turn up, I can't see Hawkins winning. First of all he's got to get the lead - which he might do - then he's got to finish it and that might be the worst aspect of his game. Dream scenario in-play is Hawkins makes a fast start and then back Ronnie. Hawkins has serious problems getting over the line and nerves seem to really affect him at the business end of a match.

Hawkins at odds against would have been an automatic play for me. As it is, he's the favourite but I still think he should be shorter. Robertson seems to be in the midst of a kind of 'snooker mid-life crisis' right now and hasn't played well for some time. Hawkins has been playing well enough anyway to win this without the issues that Robertson has been experiencing. Maybe take the frame cap to boost the price.

No need to apologise. Was just clarifying as someone might copy your pick on the back of your comment about not playing for a long time.