Torque

I do not care about the grammar of my posts.  The majority of the people who follow my tips both from here and Twitter also do not.  If you do have a problem with it,  then it's your problem but I'm certainly not going to go through previews with a fine tooth comb checking the English of it all.  It was written well enough for you to understand I'm sure. 

Back Top Japanese Player without Nishikori - Yoshihito Nishioka for a 7/10 stake at 3.25 with Unibet
Back Top Swiss Player without Federer & Wawrinka - Henri Laaksonen for a 9/10 stake at 2.38 with Unibet
Back Under/Over Ranking - Elias Ymer Under 100.5 for a 9/10 stake at 2.25 with Unibet
Back Under/Over Ranking - Frances Tiafoe Under 140.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.88 with Unibet
Back Under/Over Ranking - Stefan Kozlov Under 260.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.88 with Unibet
Happy New Year everyone! I'll start with two pre-season articles, going with the ATP today and I'm indeed expecting plenty of youngsters to break through a bit in 2016. Nishioka is a guy that I rate higher than Daniel, the main challenger in the market I'm betting on, and he'll be looking to make a permanent switch to the main tour in 2016, which should elevate him above his compatriot if he plays well enough. Similarly, Laaksonen should be able to finish above Chiudinelli, who's likely to call it quits pretty soon. Ymer should also finally make it to the top 100, he's definitely got more than enough quality to do so, while Tiafoe and Kozlov are the two guys that I like the most over in the US at the offered lines.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-2016-season-betting-expect-many-youngsters-to-shine-in-the-upcoming-season-2016010101

Like the One Direction gag potus. I'm sorry that my thread is so unsuccessful but I would welcome any advice you have for me. Perhaps you could let me know where I can find your thread so I can get some tips. Oops that sounded a bit bitchy, lol.
Follow your threads Skittle and you sure are disciplined. I find betting exciting, even at my age, and I never seem to be able to have any real plan. The going for records is just not in me, though I would like to try out some of the threads you do just to see if I could do it. 

Thank you, once again for all your effort and input whether the bets won or lost. Thank you for helping us with your great insights. Wish you an early Merry Christmas & Happy New Year 2016.

Because nobody has posted any.

Steve Johnson (+1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray @ 2.940 Pinnacle (3 pts)
Steve Johnson (+5 games) to beat Andy Murray @ 1.813 Pinnacle (4 pts)
Given the circumstances, I feel I have to take Murray on in this one. It's impossible to know what sort of shape his back is in, he could have one eye on the Davis Cup and as much as he's had a long break and so should be refreshed, Federer was in the same situation before he played Ramos and he was sent packing after a lacklustre display. It's certainly fair to say that Johnson hasn't been in the best of form, but beating Seppi in the last round should have given his confidence a boost and a good serving performance here should see the American staying close to Murray. A set might be beyond him, but I'll take a punt at the price as Murray often starts slowly which might give Johnson a chance of taking the first set.

Back Stanislas Wawrinka (-4) to beat Viktor Troicki for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway
Back Andy Murray (-4.5) to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 1.68 with Unibet
Back Dominic Thiem to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor
Mitu was unfortunately the only highlight, very disappointing otherwise, but not a disaster by any means yet. Three for me tomorrow - Wawrinka and Murray should be able to win comfortably, Troicki and Johnson just don't look all that great at the moment. Meanwhile, Thiem has a 3-0 record against Lopez, so he also looks worth a punt at 1.85 tomorrow, although the Spaniard's record in Shanghai is scaring me a bit.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-federer-out-but-will-other-big-names-follow-
 

Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win WTA Linz for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365
Back Andreea Mitu to beat Lucie Safarova for a 4/10 stake at 6.50 with BetVictor
Back Carina Witthoeft to beat Margarita Gasparyan for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor
Fancy Pavlyuchenkova, good price, good draw, and the conditions should suit her. Safarova will play her first match after a long illness, so Mitu is worth a small punt at 6.50 in my opinion. On Monday, Witthoeft looks like a good bet to me, better player than Gasparyan and perhaps the conditions should be in her favour as well.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/wta-linz-betting-lucie-safarova-back-in-action-in-linz-next-week
 

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Viktor Troicki for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power
Back Joao Sousa (+3) to beat Fabio Fognini for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway
Back Tommy Haas to beat Kevin Anderson for a 4/10 stake at 4.50 with Bet365
Bad day on Monday, let's roll on though. I'd rate Cuevas as a better player than Troicki right now, so I'm happy to back him at odds against, especially since the Shanghai conditions don't seem to be incredibly quick. Sousa should also cover the +3 line against Fognini much more often than not, the Italian rarely beats determined players easily - just look at his crazy scorelines from last week. Finally, I think that a small bet on Haas is in order at these odds. Anderson looked tired in Tokyo and the season has already been way too long for him I guess, so chances are that we're going to see a couple of upsets in his matches until the end of the year.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-roger-federer-to-enter-the-fray-on-tuesday

You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes, a horrible performance from Cilic though. On a side note, I hope that potus will share his tennis knowledge with us at some point .

Having read back what I wrote it looks as though I made a mistake - although not one which would cause me to change my bet. I think a single break in each set could cover a -4.5 game line at best. I'm glad you flagged it up but I'm not sure about calling me stupid though. Tired maybe, but not stupid.

Having read back what I wrote it looks as though I made a mistake - although not one which would cause me to change my bet. I think a single break in each set could cover a -4.5 game line at best. I'm glad you flagged it up but I'm not sure about calling me stupid though. Tired maybe, but not stupid.

Having read back what I wrote it looks as though I made a mistake - although not one which would cause me to change my bet. I think a single break in each set could cover a -4.5 game line at best. I'm glad you flagged it up but I'm not sure about calling me stupid though. Tired maybe, but not stupid.

Marin Cilic (-5.5 games) to beat Di Wu @ 1.757 Pinnacle (4 pts)
I'm climbing on board the Cilic bandwagon, as I agree with the rationale for why the prices are the way they are. Normally, losing narrowly to Nadal and breaking him a few times into the bargain would be a noteworthy achievement for a player like Wu, but such has been the decline of the Spaniard this season that it doesn't mean as much. If the Nadal match had never happened then I think this line could have been one game higher which would have been that much more difficult for Cilic to cover, but as it is he could cover it with a single break in each set of a straight sets win. Given the gulf in class between these two a straight sets win for the Croatian is the least we should see, and as long as that happens then I think this line will come in.
 
Elina Svitolina (-5.5 games) to beat Elena Vesnina @ 2.040 Pinnacle (3 pts)
Initially I was going to give this match a miss as I wasn't sure that Svitolina deserved to be such a strong favourite, but then I looked at Vesnina's form and the reason for the prices became apparent. The Russian is on a horrible run right now which has seen her lose her last four matches, and on top of that she hasn't been able to string two wins together since the French Open so her confidence can't be all that high. At some point her results will likely pick up as she's a good player, but right now she could probably do without facing a top player like Svitolina. I'm not convinced the Ukrainian will win in straight sets as Vesnina could easily play to her potential for a spell, but as long as she's dominant for the majority of the match then I give this line a chance.

Back Novak Djokovic to win the Shanghai Rolex Masters for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Betway
Back Marin Cilic (-5.5) to beat Wu Di for a 7/10 stake at 1.73 with Unibet
Have to echo the sentiments regarding Cilic, Wu Di has a dreadful record in Shanghai and he's never covered this line in three attempts, so perhaps he's going to come crashing down tomorrow as well. As far as the outrights are concerned, I simply have to back Djokovic, who looked very imperious in Beijing and who's been drawn into the easiest quarter of them all as well.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-will-djokovic-win-two-titles-in-two-weeks-

Marin Cilic/Di Wu (under 19.5 games) with Pinnaclesports @ 1.67
I think there's been a mistake made here. Because the chinese took 8 games against Nadal in some awful performance from Nadal this total is being priced like this. Because Nadal dropped serve a few times in his first match in Beijing it does'nt mean Di Wu will be able to break Cilic serve a few times because that is unthinkable. The chinese is most of the time he faces top 100 players losing badly and the matches goes under 19.5 easily and so should this one.
 

Stan Wawrinka (-4.5 games) to beat Austin Krajicek @ 1.952 Pinnacle (4 pts)
I was wary of backing Wawrinka in the early rounds here after his early exit at this tournament last year, but now that he's come through to this point you'd think he'll be trying to go as far as he can. That said, and after Ito took him to three sets in the last round, I'm loathe to back him on the set line and so instead I'll back him to cover the game line. In these conditions I rate Ito as better than Krajicek, who must be starting to feel it after coming through qualifying and playing three-set matches in the last two rounds. Wawrinka is a big step up for the American, and even if he's able to take a set I think he'll do well to keep this close.
John Isner (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic @ 3.280 Pinnacle (2 pts)
I'm not convinced there's any value in the game line, but one line I do like the look of is the set line. In both matches between these two this year there's been a tie-break and although Isner struck out both times, if it gets to six all in at least one set then I'll be happy to be behind the big American at the price. What's also interesting, although I don't place too much importance on historical results, is that Isner has taken at least a set in over half of his previous matches with Djokovic. If nothing else that at least suggests the possibility of value in this bet, and whilst I expect Djokovic to extend his streak of wins in Beijing I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Isner sneak a set if he serves well.

Back D.Ferrer/Y-h.Lu - Under 21.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Unibet
Back Novak Djokovic (-3.5) to beat John Isner for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Unibet
A very poor performance from Isner against Millman, that's why I'll be going against him tomorrow, especially with Djokovic playing so well at the moment. My other bet will be on Ferrer to have little issues against Lu, I somehow can't see him struggling, event though I'm fully aware of the poor record of the Spaniard. I would like to back Lu at some point, I still like him as a player, but he's been in decline for a very long time now, while Ferrer is still playing top 10 tennis consistently. With bobix backing Lu, I'd love to see Lu winning 6-2 6-2 though .
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-beijing-betting-can-john-isner-stop-the-world-s-number-one-

I rarely stick my oar into other people's threads, but as you appear to be doing a good job with your selections it would be a shame to see you lose your bank. If you carry on the way you are though, unfortunately I think that's what will happen. In my opinion, you are staking too much and as a result even if your picks are good a run of bad results will see you wiped out. I know that you bet at different odds ranges and I certainly agree with the idea of betting more the shorter the price, but risking a fifth or a quarter of your bank on any one bet leaves you dangerously exposed to the slings and arrows of bad fortune. As a crude example, lets say you identify several hundred bets priced at evens that you think should be slightly odds-on and lets say that you're correct in your assumptions. Lets also say that your even money bet has a 55% chance of happening, meaning that you've found some value in the odds and will be ahead in the long run if you continue placing such bets. Despite this, there is a very good chance that at some point you will have roughly 6 losing bets in a row which at best would take a big chunk out of your bank and at worst would clean you out. At the risk of sounding patronising, which is certainly not my intention otherwise I wouldn't have taken the time to write this, you need some wriggle room as far as your stakes go. That way, instead of going bust you can ride out a series of losses and recover at a later point. I suppose what I'm describing is the mentality of an investor rather than a gambler - an investor is acutely aware that even the best bets can go wrong and factors that into their betting, whilst a gambler crosses their fingers that things will go their way and will be in trouble if they don't. Anyway, however you choose to proceed with this I wish you the best of luck. :ok

Fabio Fognini (+1.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal @ 2.310 Pinnacle (3 pts) Fabio Fognini (+4.5 games) to beat Rafael Nadal @ 1.892 Pinnacle (4 pts) I can't add much to the previous post and I agree with a lot of the points made, but I'm going to take the safer option (as far as the prices are concerned) and back Fognini on both handicap lines rather than the match line. Although the Italian is shorter now than he was prior to his two wins over Nadal earlier in the year, I'd say the Spaniard is still getting too much credit and that he should be longer in the betting. I don't think Fognini will be as much of a pushover as Seppi was, and even though there is always an element of risk due to his unpredictable level of play I think it's worth backing him against Nadal again.

Back Fabio Fognini to beat Rafael Nadal for a 5/10 stake at 4.60 with BetVictor Fancy Fognini at odds this big, Nadal is just not dominant anymore. Seppi was a great match-up for him, but Fognini won't be and the Italian will be pumped up considering he's already beaten the Spaniard twice in this season. He can make a bit of history tomorrow - and, at 4.60, I'm willing to say that he will. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-hamburg-betting-fognini-aiming-to-complete-a-hat-trick-against-nadal

Good to see you back also.

Yep, Cuevas was bad, happens. Glad to see you back here though!

Wise words from [uSER=45015]harry_rag[/uSER] :ok [uSER=9333]bet_man[/uSER] - I think you need to calm down and get over yourself a little. Nobody will be getting banned, deleted, hung from a cliff or savagely beaten round the head with a 6 foot dildo, so just relax and post. ;) [uSER=80575]liquidglass[/uSER] - Would be better to form your opinion in the form of your own post with your own bets, rather than dismantling somebody else's who you know is a little fragile, so do all us a favour please. ;)

Betman - I'd encourage you to simply carry on posting your selections. If you don't like someone else's opinions you're perfectly entitled to mentally file them under "idiot" and ignore their posts. That said, if you don't like the modest degree of rough and tumble that comes with posting bets on a public forum, then simply stop posting. I do think you should stop demanding that people be banned or accounts deleted! With regard to liquidglass's post, I do feel that some of it (highlighted in bold) merits comment.
Most of us would generally counsel against expressing opinions in such absolute terms. It can make you look a little foolish and immature, regardless of the result. I'm less likely to take notice of someone's opinions when they're inclined to express them in those terms. No-one will ever get flak for posting a well reasoned losing bet, it goes with the territory. Good bets lose and bad bets win sometimes and odds on "certainties" often get chinned. Probably best, though, not to assume that propositions that are significantly odds against will definitely happen! As a wise man recently said, "I really do not think that you have thought this thing through before writing"! Or, to put it another way, it's perfectly possible to be a Mug' punter without running the risk of being perceived as a "mug" punter!