Australian Open 2016

[owenclass]

The first grand slam of the year starts in two weeks and it always the one with the most upsets probably because of the weather

Edited January 11, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

[Fader]

draw is on Friday so the price may shorten. 

2.5pts E/W M.Raonic to win the Australian Open 50/1 William Hill
crazy price if you ask me. Raonic has just won the Brisbane event and only lost one set (a tie break to Dodig in Round 1) along the way he beat Tomic and then Federer in the final both in straight sets. He has looked in good form for a while now and will want to better his QF spot last year. This is his best surface and most likely if he is going to win anything so the 50/1 on offer is too good to turn down. Hoping for a nice draw.

[Fader]

Draw is up. I'm going to add a few more outrights. Djokovic/Murray looks a likely final but I'm taking some big value punts

1pt K.Nishikori to win the Australian Open 66/1 BoyleSports
Tough ask for him to beat Djokovic but I do think he will make the quarter finals so I do think that 66/1 is good value for him moving on from there. He got to the Quarter Finals last year before going out to Stan Wawrinka. He will need to find Djokovic on a low day if he were to get that far but he has beaten him in the past.

1pt J.Isner to win the Australian Open 250/1 Boylesports
The big serving yank can go well in this tournament and if he serves well he is hard to stop. Last year he got to the Third round before going out to Muller surprisingly but his recent form suggests he is playing well. Getting to the final of a couple of events at the end of last year and a win against Federer the question will remain can he beat Murray when they meet? his serving will be everything for him because Murray is one of the best returners in the game.
 

[Fader]

Onto the womens side of things and I think it could be wide open. I'm not sure Serena is fully fit and it really lets in Sharapova when they meet. But again I am going to be going for value here and although Sharapova is value at 10/1 it's the bigger prices in form I'm taking. Important to mention I like the look of Muguruza this year but 14/1 is a silly price. Id rather Shara at 10/1 then Muguruza at 14/1. Overkill 

2pts A.Radwanska to win the Australian Open 22/1 BetVictor
Aggy is on some hot form right now. She has won the last three tournaments in a row that she has contested in including not dropping a set in Shenzhen and beating the likes of Kvitova, Halep and Muguruza, I like her draw too, she will have a tough game against Bouchard but Id fancy her to get through that. She would face Puig and Vinci in the following rounds and I think again Puig could be a hard match-up but expect her to come through it. Navarro is a big underdog for me this tournament and she will have a scrap in that one but Id fancy her. 

2pts B.Bencic to win Australian Open 25/1 Paddypower
I'm not crazy about the price but she is capable of beating anyone on her day and that's always dangerous. My only worry is she seems to have some injury concerns. She retired from the game at Wuhan and then at Beijing end of last year and then again at Sydney she retired so something is wrong perhaps? when she is feeling fine though she has beaten the best and if you look at the Canadian she was unreal. She beat Bouchard, Wozniacki, Ivanovic, Lisicki, Halep and Serena. Anyone with that ability is dangerous.

1pt V.Williams to win Australian Open 66/1 Paddypower
1pt Suarez Navarro to win Austrlian Open 150/1 Paddypower
Nice to follow some silly prices. Navarro is on some hot form right now so I expect her to go quite deep here before the nerves no doubt get to her. Venus is always going to perform well and I expect her to go deep also. 

 

[delfino]

I dont know the current shape of Serena. But i watched AZARENKA very carefully.  I am 10/10 confident about her. She returned to the top of her game. And at that area, VERY FEW are the others to demand the victory against her

 

AZARENKA to lift the trophy!

ciao members!

[potus]

Do the odds offered on Andy Murray take into account the fact that he's said he'll leave the tournament if his wife has her baby during the event? 

 

The prices on Murray look quite big, so I assume bookies are taking this into consideration?

[four-leaf]

Alison Riske to beat Belinda Bencic 4.33 with bet365

Alison Riske to beat (-1.5 sets) Belinda Bencic 7.71 with Pinnaclesports

They met once in 2014 and Riske won in straight sets in Tianjin final. She is a dangerous player in good form right now so I would go hard on Riske here. Bencic has some injury also and might not even be fit to finish the match. 

Magda Linette to beat Monica Puig 3.85 with Pinnaclesports

Puig took some serious beating against Kuznetsova so her confidence might have taken a big hit there. I don't get the odds on Linette either since she is 2-0 against Puig on hard. 

Roger Federer to beat (-2.5 sets) Nikoloz Basilashvili 1.20 with bet365

Bad draw for Basilashvili to face the all time great in the first round. Easy straight sets for Roger.

Stan Wawrinka to beat (-2.5 sets) Dmitry Tursunov 1.20 with bet365

Tursunov played three matches in Bangkok challenger to kick off his season and lost to Frederik Nielsen in straight sets. He will not have mutch chance to take a set against Stan here.

Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat (-1.5 sets) Lourdes Domínguez Lino 1.94 with Pinnaclesports

Friedsam is very underrated here. She's played very good tennis so far this season. Lino lost to Zoe Hives ranked 504 in Hobart qualifying 7-6 7-6 last weekend to kick off her season. Not very promising if she is going to be able to threaten Friedsam here. I think I can count on her winning this in straight sets.

[CzechPunter]

Back Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Tomas Berdych to win the 2nd quarter for a 4/10 stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power

Back Bernard Tomic to win the 4th quarter for a 2/10 stake at 15.00 with Skybet

Back Who Will Go the Furthest? - Stanislas Wawrinka (vs. Rafael Nadal) for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365

I've never been a big fan of short odds, but who else if not Djokovic really, especially given the long format. I also quite like Berdych and Tomic in the quarter betting, the biggest names have some problems and that could open up the draw for bit. Finally, Wawrinka could also go further than Nadal imo, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Spaniard lose surprisingly early. He did make it to the finals in Doha, but he didn't have to play against anyone strong and he then folded quite easily against Djokovic, so I'm not sure why some are thinking that he might have a chance in Melbourne.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-betting-can-anyone-stop-the-world-s-number-one-in-melbourne--2016011602

[CzechPunter]

Back Viktoria Azarenka to win the 3rd quarter for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Skybet

Back Agnieszka Radwanska to win the 2nd quarter for a 7/10 stake at 3.75 with Bet365

Back Nao Hibino to beat Maria Sharapova for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Unibet

Back Nao Hibino Total Games - Over 5.5 for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Back Camila Giorgi (+1.5 sets) to beat Serena Williams for a 7/10 stake at 2.95 with Unibet

Not sure who's going to win, no idea really, but Azarenka and Radwanska look good to me to win their quarters, both have been in splendid forms ahead of Melbourne, which can't be said for most of the other big names. This is why I'm also going against Sharapova and Williams, who have no match practice going into this. They're greats, of course, but both Hibino and Giorgi carry enough sting in my opinion, especially the latter, who nearly took a set off Williams last year. I'll give them a shot at the current odds/lines.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-betting-serena-williams-not-the-biggest-favourite-to-win-the-title-2016011603

[partio]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

This bet might be best settle to Unibet which has "Novak Djokovic to Australian Open campaign" with such high odds as 2.20. Just information for all who're looking best price to punt this bet, not any advertising meaning at all.

Edited January 16, 2016 by partio

[CzechPunter]

2 hours ago, partio said:

This bet might be best settle to Unibet which has "Novak Djokovic to Australian Open campaign" with such high odds as 2.20. Just information for all who're looking best price to punt this bet, not any advertising meaning at all.

You're quite right, there are also some bookies that offer big odds for Djokovic to win if you're a new customer like Ladbrokes, but you can get those odds only for a small stake, Unibet no different I'm afraid (although you don't need to be a new customer). Thanks for the info!

[partio]

6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

You're quite right, there are also some bookies that offer big odds for Djokovic to win if you're a new customer like Ladbrokes, but you can get those odds only for a small stake, Unibet no different I'm afraid (although you don't need to be a new customer). Thanks for the info!

No worry and yes, forgot to mention that most likely stakes are quite limited on Unibet "special offers" which is shame. You will be quite happy if you get 15 euros in while punting on those offers. Worth trying still.

Happy to see here Punters tennis lounge some active discussion and tipsters. Previews based on players gameplay and deeper information are always welcome while you cannot get much from looking just statistics and base your bets only on them. 

[CzechPunter]

Back R.Olivo/J.Vesely - Over 3.5 sets for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Back Philipp Kohlschreiber (+2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 8/10 stake at 1.70 with Unibet

Back M.Baghdatis/J-W.Tsonga - Over 3.5 sets for a 8/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

Three for me for Monday. Vesely has been poor so far in this season, while Olivo has surprised everyone by qualifying, so there's definitely potential for a long match there, as is in the match between Baghdatis and Tsonga. That one will be played on the Margaret Court Arena, so the atmosphere will be electric and we all know how popular Baghdatis is, so it should bring the best out of him once again. Finally, the set handicap on Kohli is pretty much a no-brainer considering Nishikori's recent struggles, I wouldn't even be shocked to see him win easily, although that is rather far-fetched.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-betting-djokovic-and-federer-in-action-on-monday-2016011605

[Simeon Borisof]

I think there is every chance to see Grigor dropping a set tomorrow against Lorenzi.The Italian is having a great start to the year,already winning a tournament and what a way to the it-dropping just one set.He has beaten names like Granollers,Dodig and Donskoy on its way to the title being been pretty much flawless thus far and we must say that Grigor has been rather shaky than solid.It's true that he reached the final in Sydney but Troicki had to come from behind to win the title where Dimitrov was disappointing at best.He started the game great,leaving almost no chance for Troicki to react but something changed in the 2nd set and the Bulgarian seemed crushed.His baseline was terrible making a ton of unforced errors.I think he doesn't have the mentality to recover in such a short notice and with the Italian on fire he may drop a set here.Bet365 are offering odds of 3.00 on that option which seems like a great value to me.I feel i must go even furhter and bet on the Italia to qualify as well.Over 3.5 sets @ 3 with bet365,Lorenzi to beat Dimitrov @ 11 with bet365.

[delfino]

I like the chances of WAWRINKA to lift the trophy @13 offered by bet365

For me, there is not any other title candidate apart of Djokovic and WAW. According to my criteria, one of those two giants will gonna lift the trophy. I excluded all the others for various reasons. Federer WILL NOT lift the trophy, no only this one, but never again any other. Murray does not stand a chance if he find on his way either WAW or Djoko.  Nadal already missed the glorious days of the past, he looks a veteran in my eyes. Kyrgios? Lets lough everypody LOL. The guy is heavily OVERESTIMATED

 

WAW to lift the trophy @13 with the intention to trade him at the correct time

ciao members!

[delfino]

Azarenka is already going down in bookies prices

I dont see any upset in women race. I can not imagine any new Penneta or something like that. Azarenka is absolutely serious player, more of a man brain than a woman. She has the upper brain against everybody, and her game is exceptionally strong for women standards. As i noticed, Serena is not at her best. This is the opportunity of Azarenka to lift the trophy for third time

ciao Azarenka! I am one of your fans here. Gimme Gimme the money my lovely girl!

[WinningTipster]

4 PICK FOR THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN STARTING TOMORROW:

WOZNIACKI - PUTINTSEVA 2:0 SETS @ 1.33 on pinnaclesports
Wozniacki looked very good in the beginning of 2016 and can expect her to come back to the top 10. Expect it to be an easy win for her.

CORNET - JOVANOVSKI 2:0 SETS @ 1.52 on pinnaclesports
Great form for Cornet last week winning in Hobart.

SVITOLINA - DUVAL 2:0 SETS @ 1.4 on pinnaclesports
Duval was out of the game for 1.5 years. Svitolina is very consistent and powerful.

FEDERER - BASILASHVILI 3:0 SETS @ 1.22 on pinnaclesports
Federer looked very good in the beginning of 2016 and can expect an easy win for him. Federer always tried to win his earlier round matches as quickly as possible.

 

[four-leaf]

9 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Over 3.5 sets @ 3 with bet365,Lorenzi to beat Dimitrov @ 11 with bet365.

I have thought about Lorenzi in some way myself and just waited for some more options on bet365 but I happened to lose all my money at bet365 on Dimitrov sadly but I would bet on over 3.5 sets if I could. Very good bet.

Edited January 17, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Back Fernando Verdasco (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal for a 8/10 stake at 2.15 with Pinnaclesports

I think we might see Nadal struggling here. He's lost two of three matches against Verdasco in Miami last season and before that in Madrid 2012 and when he beat him in Hamburg last season it was in three sets so Verdasco should have his chances to take a set here. I think Verdasco played ok against Djokovic in Doha and it could very well be enough to take a set off of Nadal.

[four-leaf]

On 2016-01-16 13:04:44, CzechPunter said:

Back Viktoria Azarenka to win the 3rd quarter for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Skybet

Back Agnieszka Radwanska to win the 2nd quarter for a 7/10 stake at 3.75 with Bet365

Back Camila Giorgi (+1.5 sets) to beat Serena Williams for a 7/10 stake at 2.95 with Unibet

Very good reading for everyone at the official wta site.

On Azarenka: Hindered by a foot injury in 2014 and still not 100% last year, the two-time Aussie Open champ has looked very sharp to commence 2016. Not only did Azarenka win the title in Brisbane, but she did it without much fuss.

But are we reading too much into her success, since she didn't have to face players such as Sharapova, Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza?

On Radwanska: Radwanska served extremely well in Shenzhen, striking nine aces in the final and coming up with good serves when in trouble. A continuation of that and she might make a deep run in Melbourne.

On Giorgi v Serena: On paper, it's a tough start for Serena. She landed Camila Giorgi, who just missed out on a seeding ranked 35th. By now, many of you know that the rather diminutive Italian punches above her weight when it comes to ball striking: She's indeed one of the hardest hitters on the tour.

More to read http://www.wtatennis.com/news/article/5278220/title/ao-draw-expert-predictions

[four-leaf]

Tamira Paszek to beat Roberta Vinci for a 7/10 stake at 2.36 with Pinnaclesports

Paszek has started her season in fashion totally outplaying Svetlana Kuznetsova and reaching the semis going out against Julia Goerges in Auckland. She's naturally managed to qualify to Australian open and she is on a mission to get this season to be a really good one for her and she's proved it to be something she can manage. She is 2-0 against Roberta Vinci without losing a set winning in Hobart 2010 and at her favourite surface grass in Wimbledon 2012. I think we might see a small upset here and I take this price on Paszek any day of the week when Vinci is on the other side of the net.

[smegmaniac]

Klara Koukalova to beat Nicole Gibbs at 5-2 with boylesports.

I just think the price has become far too big for Koukalova. Gibbs has a lot of wins under her belt of late (she has won 12 of her last 14) but most of those wins have been at itf level and there isn't a player of note amongst that group of 14 that she beat. She generally does struggle at grand slam level and has done so for years. Koukalova is famously inconsistent and there were certainly times last season that she was so poor that I was half expecting her to announce her retirement any moment but surprisingly she actually pulled off a good run of results herself towards the end of the year, winning 11 of her last 13 matches (against opponents of similar stature to the ones Gibbs beat, admittedly) which suggests that she's not just finished yet. It's also worth noting that Koukalova has won the only match between the two no less than 6 months ago beating Gibbs in straight sets on grass! Basically, I can't understand why Gibbs is such a huge favourite here...There is no doubt in my mind that anything close to Koukalova's A-game has the beating of Gibbs, whose ceiling is certainly lower than Koukalova's. Of course, there is a risk in backing a player as inconsistent as Koukalova and she hasn't had a good start to the season but one would have to believe that at this stage of her career, she'd be motivated to give her best at slams as she probably realises that she won't be getting many more opportunities at the greatest stage and I believe she has the beaten of Gibbs! At the very least, it's worth a small punt at very generous odds!

[Fader]

Hard to go into too much detail on my phone but I'll be on karlovic to win 3-0 tonight. They played in the US open and it was 3-0 to karlovic then and I also feel delbonis more a clay courter. 

4pts 13/8 Paddypower

[Fader]

5.5pts P. Cuevas - 3.5 games to beat Nishioka 10/11 paddypower 

I'd fancy Cuevas to win this by 3-0/3-1 personally so I'm surprised by the odds.  Never played each other and in such a big slam I'd expect cuevas to take control 

[owenclass]

Kei Nishikori to win First Quarter 7/1 paddy power

Nick Kyrgios to win Second Quarter 7/1 paddy power

Milos Raonic to win Third Quarter 5/2 paddy power

John Isner to win Fourth Quarter 10/1 paddy power

 

Im hoping these players to do well in the first grand slam of the year and there could be a few surprises with Nishikori winning his quarter against Djokovic also Kyrgios has improved since last year and can win his quarter as Federer is not playing well Raonic can upset either Nadal or Wawrinka and Isner could give Murray a tough time

 

Belinda Bencic to win First Quarter 15/2 paddy power

Eugenie Bouchard to win Second Quarter 7/1 paddy power

Elina Svitolina to win Third Quarter 22/1 paddy power

Madison Keys to win Fourth Quarter 7/1 paddy power

 

I think this Grand Slam is wide open and i can see a big price player going far in this tournament I like Bencic and she could do well if Serena is not on her game Bouchard has played well lately and she is at a good price Svitolina is a talented  player and she could be a surprise and Keys is always dangerous and maybe this could be her time with others in her quarter carrying slight injuries

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by owenclass

[owenclass]

Day one preview:

 

Serena Williams vs Camila Giorgi

Over 19.5 games evens paddy power

I think this will be tough match for Serena as she is still trying to get back to her best form also her opponent is a tough player so expect a tight first set

Kristina Mladenovic vs Daniela Cibulkova

Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power

This match looks like it is going all the way as it is too close to call Mladenovic had a great season last year but this year has struggled and with Cibulkova doing well here then she is in for a tough match

Edited January 18, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back A.Murray/A.Zverev - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 3.75 with Bet365

Back Lleyton Hewitt (-2.5) to beat James Duckworth for a 8/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Back Stephane Robert (-1.5 sets) to beat Bjorn Fratangelo for a 8/10 stake at 2.00 with Unibet

Back Rajeev Ram (+2.5 sets) to beat Kevin Anderson for a 7/10 stake at 2.38 with Unibet

Back Brian Baker (+2.5 sets) to beat Simone Bolelli for a 7/10 stake at 2.65 with Unibet

Argh, that might be the worst start to the season I've ever had, hopefully I'll pull it back to the black numbers quickly. Five for me on Tuesday in total. Firstly, the 3.75 on offer for Murray to drop a set looks seriously massive to me. Yes, yes, he should be winning this easily, but with all the talk about him even flying back home mid-tournament, it's fair to say that there's a chance of him not being completely focused - and Zverev isn't a poor player by any standards. Hewitt should also beat Duckworth easily enough - it's not even about the quality, it's about that I don't believe that Duckworth will handle the occasion (he even said that he will apologize to Hewitt if he wins, which certainly isn't the right attitude). Robert should also find his way to beat Fratangelo without dropping more than a set - the American shouldn't even be here, as he lost in the final round of the qualifiers. Finally, call me a naive optimist, but I think that both Ram and Baker have a chance of getting a set against Anderson and Bolelli. There are question marks hovering around Anderson and Ram's playing style will put him under pressure. Meanwhile, Bolelli has been dreadful so far in this season and Baker will give it his all on his comeback - and he isn't even the worse player of the two, it's just that he lacks match practice big time.

Please note that I'm taking the Ram and Baker bets at Unibet, who settle already-won set handicap bets (and void ones that could still possibly go either way) in case of retirements - and all four players in question could imaginably retire.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-betting-will-murray-make-a-strong-start-in-melbourne--2016011801

[matrixman]

Wow, amazing number of huge upsets on both sides last night. SMH on Paire..Rubin is not much at all..

[Fader]

Ivo Karlovic injured and retiring means that the bet on him to win 3-0 was a void and Cuevas did the business so good first day 1 in 1. Few more for Tuesday :

4pts S.Johnson (-2.5 games) to beat A.Bedene Evens Bet365
Johnson 21 wins/15 losses last year on the hard courts and currently at his highest ranking of 32. Got to the Third round last year of this event going out to Nishikori 3-1. Bedene 49th in rankings. Also close to best (was 45th) Bedene retired from his last match less than a week ago against Querrey with a leg injury. He also withdrew from the doubles match he was set to play. You'd say Bedene has the better form recently but Johnson rarely loses against Opponents below his ranking. Last year he beat the likes of Tsonga, Tomic and Dimitrov and his losses were against quality opposition like Anderson, Nishikori and Berdych. Bedene, although capable (he beat Lopez & Agut) last year, he is also capable of losing to some rubbish such as 256th Novikov and 444th Jasika.

5pts D.Young (-3.5 games) to beat S.Giraldo 4/5 Skybet
2pts D.Young to beat S.Giraldo 3-0 13/5 Boylesports
Giraldo for me isn't the player on the hard court as he is on the clay. His results on it over the last year or so shows that IMO. Played 17 since Jan last year on the hard and won 7 of those but none of those wins were of a calibre player above himself( Darcis 66th retired) infact he struggled in 3 sets to a player ranked 1453th. Donald Young, ranked 47th is a very capable player who beat the likes of Berdych, Tomic, and Chardy last year. He also got to the last 16 of the US Open. I'm going for Young to win and small bet on the whitewash.

3pts G.Monfils to beat Sugita 3-0 5/6 Bet365
You would of thought Monfils would be able to come out of with without much sweat. Sugita ranked 124th doesn't generally meet players of Monfils quality and Monfils hardly ever loses to players inferior to him. Monfils will 100% win this and I really cannot see Sugita getting a set.

5pts V.Lepchenko (-1.5 games) to beat Tsurenko 4/5 Bet365
These two met in the US Open last year and Lepchenko won in straight sets (76-62) they also played in this event 2 years ago in the last 128 and again Lepchenko won this time in 3 sets. Tsurenko is a good player but she is also an unpredictable one and I think Lepchenko is a far more solid pick here.

3pts V.Williams to beat J.Konta 2-0 Evens Bet365
I fancy Venus to do well in this tournament and I think she will get off to the perfect start beating Konta 2-0. They played eachother on this surface not too long ago and Venus won it albeit in 3 sets but I think the size of the tournament for Venus and the fact she normally does well in the big hardcourt slams (QF exit to Serena US)(QF exit to Keys AUS) will help her through.