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2015 Off-Season - January 10


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I'm going to take D.Ferrer to beat Tsonga at midday today. Head to head favours Ferrer 3 to 1. I think he the better player on the hard court and is the harder worker when it's not going his way. He didn't have a fantastic ATP Tour recently but prior to that had a good win at Vienna tournament and got to the semi-final at Paris (lost to Murray). Ferrer doesn't tend to lesser players alot where as Tsonga can lose to the likes of Haider Maurer if he can't be bothered.

4pts D.Ferrer to beat Wilfried Tsonga 3/4 BetVictor

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Back Top Japanese Player without Nishikori - Yoshihito Nishioka for a 7/10 stake at 3.25 with Unibet

Back Top Swiss Player without Federer & Wawrinka - Henri Laaksonen for a 9/10 stake at 2.38 with Unibet

Back Under/Over Ranking - Elias Ymer Under 100.5 for a 9/10 stake at 2.25 with Unibet

Back Under/Over Ranking - Frances Tiafoe Under 140.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.88 with Unibet

Back Under/Over Ranking - Stefan Kozlov Under 260.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.88 with Unibet

Happy New Year everyone! I'll start with two pre-season articles, going with the ATP today and I'm indeed expecting plenty of youngsters to break through a bit in 2016. Nishioka is a guy that I rate higher than Daniel, the main challenger in the market I'm betting on, and he'll be looking to make a permanent switch to the main tour in 2016, which should elevate him above his compatriot if he plays well enough. Similarly, Laaksonen should be able to finish above Chiudinelli, who's likely to call it quits pretty soon. Ymer should also finally make it to the top 100, he's definitely got more than enough quality to do so, while Tiafoe and Kozlov are the two guys that I like the most over in the US at the offered lines.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-2016-season-betting-expect-many-youngsters-to-shine-in-the-upcoming-season-2016010101

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Back Player with Most Aces as of 14 November 2016 - Karolina Pliskova for a 5/10 stake at 3.00 with Unibet

Back Under/Over Ranking - Karolina Pliskova Under 15.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.83 with Skybet

Back Under/Over Ranking - Elina Svitolina Under 20.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.75 with Unibet

Back Under/Over Ranking - Lucie Safarova Over 13.5 for a 9/10 stake at 1.88 with Unibet

Back Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Viktoria Azarenka for a 8/10 stake at 2.50 with Skybet

Fancy Pliskova and Svitolina to do really well next season, both seem to be in the right position to finish better than in the previous season. Lucie Safarova, on the other hand, looks set to struggle with long-term health issues, so the top 13 could remain out of her reach in 2016 despite all those successes in 2015. Finally, I think that there's some value in the 2.50 that's on offer for Radwanska to finish above Azarenka. Although she isn't as flashy as the former world's number one, she's much more consistent and she's found some good form at the end of 2015, so that's something she could build on over the coming months. Moreover, there's always the chance that Azarenka won't be fully fit for more than just a couple of months.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/wta-2016-season-betting-who-can-rise-through-the-rankings-this-year--2016010106

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Jelena Ostapenko, Alison Riske, Mónica Puig, Anna-Lena Friedsam

Best singles ranking as of 14 november 2016

Jelena Ostapenko 4.33 @ Unibet

Out of these four Ostapenko is the biggest talent and she is on her way up faster than the other three. She is younger too and already the highest ranked player of the three.

She might be one to keep an eye on during the 2016 season. Riske, Puig and Friedsam I just can't rate higher than Ostapenko. Friedsam is the closest in age with her being three years older than Ostapenko who is 19 this year. None of the other three have done enough during the years they've been on the main tour to make a big breakthrough but I think Ostapenko might be able to get a bigger breakthrough than the other three ever has had.

 

 

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Back Kevin Anderson to win ATP Chennai for a 3/10 stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power

Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-2.5) to beat Taro Daniel for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Luca Vanni to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet

I'll focus on Doha next week, seems like the most friendly tournament time-wise, but I'll take these three in Chennai. Wawrinka at 2.50 is just a big no-no, siding with Anderson at 7.00 looks like the value choice to me considering that he's also in the easier half of the draw. Garcia-Lopez should have it easy against Daniel, there's a gulf of class between the two, while I see no reason to favour Struff against Vanni, who's the much more consistent player of the two and who's already played in Chennai before.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-chennai-betting-stanislas-wawrinka-and-kevin-anderson-lead-the-line-up-in-india-2016010203

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24 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Kevin Anderson to win ATP Chennai for a 3/10 stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power

Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-2.5) to beat Taro Daniel for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Luca Vanni to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet

I'll focus on Doha next week, seems like the most friendly tournament time-wise, but I'll take these three in Chennai. Wawrinka at 2.50 is just a big no-no, siding with Anderson at 7.00 looks like the value choice to me considering that he's also in the easier half of the draw. Garcia-Lopez should have it easy against Daniel, there's a gulf of class between the two, while I see no reason to favour Struff against Vanni, who's the much more consistent player of the two and who's already played in Chennai before.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-chennai-betting-stanislas-wawrinka-and-kevin-anderson-lead-the-line-up-in-india-2016010203

There is more then a gulf of class between Daniel and GG-Lopez. I saw them play in Valencia in october and had a handicap bet on GG-Lopez and there really was no chance at all for Daniel anywhere in the match and should be the same this time to so when I have seen these to playing against eachother already just three months ago I fully agree with you on this one Czech. About Vanni I also could agree but I don't know as mutch about that one but it's fully possible that the wrong Struff turns up and messes his day up once again like when he played against Stakhovsky and I thought he would win in october but lost badly. Therefore I don't think betting on Struff is a good option so I think I'll agree. The outright I will leave alone as I don't really feel like taking the risk.

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btw Jelena Ostapenko as a junior won Wimbledon 2014 and was ranked no.2 and her favourite surface is hard if anyone likes to know. I defenitely think she will go better then 77 this season which is her highest ranking so far which occured 21-september and now she's at 84. She got to her first final in Quebec losing to Annika Beck 20-september. There could be some results matching that coming her way on a surface that suits her preventing her from dropping her ranking because of not defending points. She won an ITF in february 2015, beat Carla Suárez Navarro in Wimbledon first round, lost to Errani in US open second round. Some points to defend here and there for her but not to mutch and that's what protennis is all about, defending your points to maintain your ranking.

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2 PICKS FOR WTA BRISBANE TOMORROW:

KERBER TO DEFEAT  GIORGI @ 1.32 on pinnaclesports

SHARAPOVA TO DEFEAT  MAKAROVA @ 1.22 on pinnaclesports

Kerber with traditionally good results in Australia is a good counterattacking player who will force into a lot of unforced errors.

Sharapova is always taking the small tournaments seriously especially in the beginning of the year, so good form and motivation can be assumed here. No doubts, she is a better player. 6-0 head to hear record for her.

 

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Back Jana Cepelova to beat Samantha Stosur for a 7/10 stake at 3.70 with BetVictor

Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-3.5) to beat Alize Cornet for a 8/10 stake at 1.86 with Unibet

Back Varvara Lepchenko to beat Garbine Muguruza Blanco for a 5/10 stake at 6.70 with 10Bet

Brisbane should be fun, too bad the time zone isn't very welcoming - I mean, I'll be up all night for the Aussie Open, don't really want to make that a month-long habit. I'll take three in the match betting. Pavlyuchenkova should be way too strong for Cornet, she even has a 4-0 record against her. Meanwhile, Lepchenko and Cepelova look like very live underdogs to me, definitely willing to back them at odds this big, as both have enough class to win with a slice of luck (Cepelova even beat Stosur in their only previous encounter).

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/wta-brisbane-betting-plenty-of-big-names-present-in-australia-next-week-2016010302

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Back Andreas Seppi to beat Ricardas Berankis for a 9/10 stake at 1.57 with Unibet

Back Marsel Ilhan to beat Andrey Kuznetsov for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with Paddy Power

Back P.Andujar/P.Lorenzi - Under 22.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

I somehow can't bring myself to back Djokovic at 1.53, although he's obviously a big favourite to win the entire thing. Going for three match bets in the first round instead. Seppi is self-explanatory I suppose, while the Ilhan/Kuznetsov match looks like a coin-flip to me in all honesty, can't see where the Russian should be getting the edge from. Finally, I'll take the unders in the Andujar/Lorenzi match - not only do they have a long history of two-setters, but Andujar also have some injury worries that could prove troublesome.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-doha-betting-does-ferrer-stand-a-chance-of-defending-his-title--2016010303

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Back Ante Pavic (+3.0) to beat Nicolas Almagro for a 8/10 stake at 1.89 with Pinnacle

This one might be a good bet. I saw Mate Pavic play last year in Stockholm against Almagro and it was no beauty contest. The play looked awful from Almagro back then and Pavic won the first set and now Almagro have had some time to regroup but coming into this new season will be difficult against a qualifier like Ante Pavic who does serve quite ok. He can serve well enough to match Almagro just like Mate Pavic although he may lack the finishing touch to win. I belive this will be an even contest like it was in Stockholm when he played the other Pavic so therefore I'm on Ante Pavic +3.0. I have no idea if Mate and Ante are brothers.

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31 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Back Ante Pavic (+3.0) to beat Nicolas Almagro for a 8/10 stake at 1.89 with Pinnaclesports

This one might be a good bet. I saw Mate Pavic play last year in Stockholm against Almagro and it was no beauty contest. The play looked awful from Almagro back then and Pavic won the first set and now Almagro have had some time to regroup but coming into this new season will be difficult against a qualifier like Ante Pavic who does serve quite ok. He can serve well enough to match Almagro just like Mate Pavic although he may lack the finishing touch to win. I belive this will be an even contest like it was in Stockholm when he played the other Pavic so therefore I'm on Ante Pavic +3.0. I have no idea if Mate and Ante are brothers.

I know that Mate Pavic is ranked outside 600 and Almagro could not outplay that guy in Stockholm so I don't see how he should be able to outplay Ante Pavic ranked 449. Almagro has played crap tennis for a long time.

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I will be taking Belinda Bencic to beat Sara Errani on the handicap at Brisbane (02:30 start time) They met on Erranis favourite surface (clay) and despite winning the first set, Bencic then steamrolled her 6-1 6-2. Now they face eachother on Bencics favourite surface and I think with the added speed on the court, and the fact she vastly has age on her side she should win this with not too many problems.

5pts B.Bencic (-3.5 games) to beat S.Errani Evens Paddypower

 

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I know this is abit late. Almost about to go in-play but I fancy Heather Watson to beat Caroline Garcia. 11/8 SkyBet. Won last 2 h-2-h and will have the knowledge that Murray has already won. I can see her winning it in straight sets even but I'll go for the win.

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1 hour ago, Fader said:

I know this is abit late. Almost about to go in-play but I fancy Heather Watson to beat Caroline Garcia. 11/8 SkyBet. Won last 2 h-2-h and will have the knowledge that Murray has already won. I can see her winning it in straight sets even but I'll go for the win.

You'd of thought that by now, Watson would of matured. She is far far too aggressive. 

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On 2016-01-03 16:11:48, CzechPunter said:

Back Jana Cepelova to beat Samantha Stosur for a 7/10 stake at 3.70 with BetVictor

Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-3.5) to beat Alize Cornet for a 8/10 stake at 1.86 with Unibet

Back Varvara Lepchenko to beat Garbine Muguruza Blanco for a 5/10 stake at 6.70 with 10Bet

Brisbane should be fun, too bad the time zone isn't very welcoming - I mean, I'll be up all night for the Aussie Open, don't really want to make that a month-long habit. I'll take three in the match betting. Pavlyuchenkova should be way too strong for Cornet, she even has a 4-0 record against her. Meanwhile, Lepchenko and Cepelova look like very live underdogs to me, definitely willing to back them at odds this big, as both have enough class to win with a slice of luck (Cepelova even beat Stosur in their only previous encounter).

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/wta-brisbane-betting-plenty-of-big-names-present-in-australia-next-week-2016010302

You should have seen Lepchenko play in Moscow and Linz. She was so awful it was hard to belive how somebody could play so bad. The worst I saw in october and november. But she could still be winning versus GMB, she maybe just wanted the season to end those two last matches she played in Linz and Moscow.

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Back Teimuraz Gabashvili to beat Simone Bolelli for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with BetVictor

Back Albert Ramos to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu for a 7/10 stake at 2.05 with BetVictor

Not a good start, as Ilhan didn't really show up and as Cepelova missed her chances and lost in three. Two more for me in Doha tomorrow, I'll be backing the doubles pair of Gabashvili/Ramos that beat Nadal/Verdasco today incidentally, although obviously not only because of the boost that the win should give them. Bolelli has been somewhat poor in recent times and I think that he's going to struggle until the clay court swing, while Ramos really shouldn't be the underdog against Mathieu considering that they've been going in the opposite directions for at least a year now.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-doha-betting-nadal-expected-to-bounce-back-from-the-doubles-defeat-2016010405

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Tomas Berdych and Sergiy Stakhovsky have played eachother 6 times and all 6 have been won by Berdych. 5 of those have been on the hard-court. 4 of the 6 have been in straight sets including the last two in a row. This handicap would of been covered in the last 3 matches these two played on the hard-court.

Berdych has been on some good form recently. Most can forgive him for the ATP Tour finals but prior to that he won the Shenzhen and Stockholm tournaments and got to the QF of the Shanghai tournament to (losing to Murray) he also got a QF in Paris (losing to Djokovic) so he has some form.

He should win here in straight sets so I'm taking 6pts T.Berdych (-4.5 games) to beat S.Stakhovsky 4/6 Skybet

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Some very odd results today and below par performances. I'm going to take two for the early hours.

4pts M.Cilic to beat Chung 2-0 Evens William Hill
4pts S.Lisicki to beat C.Garcia 11/10 PaddyPower

Cilic has played Chung twice and beat him both times 2-0. The kid is improving all the time and I'm sure in the future he will be beating the likes of Cilic but you'd expect Cilic to do the job in this one. Garcia looked poor against Watson IMO. Watson had chances and just went too aggressive and made errors. Lisicki will be a much harder opponent for Garcia and I fancy her to win that.

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Back Andrea Petkovic to beat Ekaterina Makarova for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Pinnaclesports

Back Christina Mchale (+5.0) to beat Caroline Wozniacki for a 6/10 stake at 2.07 with Pinnaclesports

Ok here we go. Two picks and I don't know where any of them will go but I know that Petkovic has beaten Makarova twice and should do so again. Makarova got herself some luck to face lucky loser Gasparyan who lost to Cepelova in qualies. The head to head is not mutch to look at but still Petkovic last time beat her in Miami last year 6-1 7-5 and I think it makes enough reason for me to back Petkovic. Mchale has beaten Wozniacki when she was world no.1 in Cincinnati and she's done it once more after that and she's made some problems for Wozniacki on hardcourt where Mchale plays her best tennis. They met on clay once but that does'nt play mutch part in how this match will go. I rather lean on those previous hardcourt meetings. If we count out that match in Madrid last year that ended with Mchale losing 7-5 6-0 Wozniacki have never beaten Mchale by more then 5 games which will be a void. Seeing how Wozniacki started against Kovinic falling behind 4-0 in first set this will not be as simple either for Wozniacki. She failed to cover the handicap last match and could fail again.

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Back Daniel Munoz de la Nava to beat Kyle Edmund for a 7/10 stake at 3.75 with Skybet

Back Ilya Marchenko to beat Teimuraz Gabashvili for a 7/10 stake at 2.15 with Unibet

Edmund is being priced up as a top 30 player or something for reasons unknown to me, so I'll back Munoz de la Nava at 3.75, a ridiculous price really if you ask me. Marchenko should also be the favourite against Gabashvili given how the two played today, so I'll add that to the first bet.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-doha-betting-ferrer-ousted-as-djokovic-and-nadal-advance-2016010502

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Back Sloane Stephens (-1.5 sets) to beat Naomi Broady for a 9/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnaclesports

Having seen Stephens beat Witthoeft and Broady beating Ostapenko this bet only makes sense. Ostapenko should have beaten Broady either in straights or by 6-1 third set or 6-3 but she failed to serve out the match three times and missed two matchpoints on Broadys serve. The loss for Ostapenko was led by her huge nervosity that led to her huge mistakes that ultimately led to her losing the match. The play from Ostapenko was quite awsome all the time acctually and way better then Broady and she surely should have won the match. Stephens will be even more awsome and most likely won't let Broady get any chances to get back in the match like Ostapenko did because of her nervosity. I'm very sure about this bet.

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ATP Chennai R16 Gilles Muller to beat (-1.5 Sets) Thomas Fabbiano 1.662
WTA Auckland QF Tamira Paszek/Kirsten Flipkens Over 21.0 games 1.925
WTA Auckland QF Sloane Stephens (-1.5 Sets) vs Naomi Broady 1.917
WTA Auckland QF Julia Goerges to beat (-1.5 Sets) Nao Hibino 2.110

Parlay @ Pinnaclesports

Muller does have some chances to win by a big margin but what should defenitely be happening is this straight sets win for him. Paszek and Flipkens match have a good potential to go over. Having seen Paszek play against Kuznetsova where she totally outplayed to former no.1 I think she could run into some more trouble against Flipkens even though she plays very good. Already mentioned Stephens to win in straights and it should work. Hibino is still a very inexperienced player so she will normally run into big problems against Goerges who is far more experienced.

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