harry_rag

Bet 92 (28): 17.25 points on Barcelona +3 v Sociedad at 1.04

they'res number 4. Williams looks so good right now.

One more will put me in profit, spreads pitched at about 1.5 more so I need 2 to justify not closing out the bet.

In the other match, Williams has 3 centuries. We need him to get 2 more or even better, Page gets 2 for both bets winning.

What a frame from Mark, there. Brilliant break of 125 to start. Potted some worldies.
Another one of them again in frame 2 please, Mark.

I've had a buy of total centuries at 3.1 with SPIN (as high as 3.45 elsewhere). Ton-ups (total points in a break >100) can be bought at 49 but that's a bit more volatile (6 breaks all just over 100 could still make for a loss). Hopefully you're envisaged ton-fest materialises!

Williams takes on Page in his Last 16 match, at 1pm. Along with the conclusion of Brecel/Saengkham. I'm not too interested in the Brecel match and I just wish I bet on Saengkham but I do think Williams wins and probably with a few frames to spare. Williams and Page are very close friends and you'd think that it may mean that Williams goes alittle easier on him but when they played 2 years ago at the Scottish Open, Williams won 4-1.
Page hit 3 centuries against Hawkins and Williams hit 4 against White. You would have to say that "Both players to hit 2 centuries" at 6/1 looks a spot of value.  I'll even throw in a punt for 5 at 9/2 as Williams could easily get 4-5 here on his own. Remember it's now a "first to 13" match.
3pts Both players to hit 2+ centuries (Williams Vs Page) 6/1 paddypower
2pts 5+ match centuries 9/2 paddypower

Should have held out Harry. You'd get plenty bigger now. Hopefully it comes in for you but I have to admit I've gone right off one goal or more bets. Once you've taken a position there's no scratching out - it's either win or lose.

Didn't see this, I was on it at half time..  nice late winner for a change ?
About time you had some luck, not that you believe in it! ??

Something alittle bit different this weekend as we have the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Pete Dye design and of a format where we have the players teaming up in pairs. Cam Smith and Leishman won this last year and they're joint second favs to do so once again. My 3 picks are as follows. I'm going for single betting on the main 3 and each-way on the 3 outsiders.
3.5pts Burns/Horschel 12/1 bet365
2pts Niemann/Pereria 25/1 bet365
1.5pts Bradley/Steele 33/1 bet365

outsiders :
0.5ps e/w Uihlein/Werenski 150/1 bet365 (5 places, 1/4th)
0.5ps e/w Duncan/Schenk 160/1 bet365 (5 places, 1/4th)
0.5pts e/w Hoffman/Watney 170/1 bet365 (5 places, 1/4th)

Doh, Un-No!! Could have maybe gone 8-8 but hey-ho, Higgins has squeaked through again.
Thanks for the stats Harry, let's hope that next year is the year and we can get on at 13/2 or thereabouts! 

Quick look back over last 10 years on Cuetracker; last year's 108 centuries was the highest but the 79 the year before was a big fall back after 100 in 2019. The average is 80.1. You'd want to see >100 this year to be truly persuaded of a strong upward trend. The 2 games last year that drew a blank is pretty close to that 15/1 from my calculator stabbing (small sample obviously).
Assuming we can expect >100 centuries most years from now on I'd say that 13/2 is in the vicinity of being a fair price. If someone did chalk up that 10/1 I think I'd be persuaded to stick a tenner on it!
Literally back of an envelope stuff rather than a "deep dive" but it would make me think that this year's bet was more a legitimate fun/interest bet than a mug bet.

I appreciate the math on this one, harry. Interesting stuff. I do think we'll see 100+ this tournament and so perhaps next year if we get the 13/2 again then we'll have more following

Quick look back over last 10 years on Cuetracker; last year's 108 centuries was the highest but the 79 the year before was a big fall back after 100 in 2019. The average is 80.1. You'd want to see >100 this year to be truly persuaded of a strong upward trend. The 2 games last year that drew a blank is pretty close to that 15/1 from my calculator stabbing (small sample obviously).
Assuming we can expect >100 centuries most years from now on I'd say that 13/2 is in the vicinity of being a fair price. If someone did chalk up that 10/1 I think I'd be persuaded to stick a tenner on it!
Literally back of an envelope stuff rather than a "deep dive" but it would make me think that this year's bet was more a legitimate fun/interest bet than a mug bet.

Just read an interview with a disconsolate and burnt-out Trump. Based on that, Vafaei must have an even better chance than in normal circumstances. Trump was talking about coming to this tournament with no expectations after a mediocre season by his standards, and saying that he needs to take some time away from snooker once the tournament is over. Also complaining about the venues and tournaments this season, including the Crucible and how it's too cramped in the early stages. Sounds to me like he's got his excuses lined up already in case he loses to Vafaei and so I'm going to back the Iranian.
25pts Vafaei to beat Trump @ 5.00 365

Too late I think! Saturday 3:00 deadline.

It wouldn’t really make much difference if it was given form can change and some players would be getting better and some on the wane. Past runnings of the same event would still be the best starting point for arriving at a price though. Happy to agree it’s not the easiest market to price up though.
From a quick stab on the calculator I make it that 13/2 roughly equates to 15/1 for each individual game not to have a century. If it’s more common than that then 13/2 starts to look like a poor price, less common and it could be value.

Good points @harry_rag 
From my side I had absolutely no idea what the fair odds should be and just took it for interest, so in that sense it could be classified as a mug bet. As for what the true odds should have been - who knows. @charliepie found some good stats from previous years but I'm not sure how informative they are about the chances of the bet hitting this year, although of course they offer a yardstick to refer to.

Didn't even notice that. I don't even use "really" alot, either  
to be honest 10/1 is just a shot in the dark. You couldn't really add up the true value of that bet, could you? Because they're so many variables. Not just every match to have a century (which to be honest, shouldn't be too unrealistic) but also, you're factoring in how potentially amateurs handle the event. 
I'm happy to take it at 13/2 because it's the kind of bet you can follow along on each match and "in general" the amount of centuries get bigger every single year and so the likelihood "in general" gets stronger each year, by default.
I've not checked over the stats but I think (without checking) that every match apart from McGill one has had a century...

Yeah it’s just a fun bet really isn’t it. They could be kinder with the price, really. Should be 10s atleast really 

Made up at 62, 57 and 23 so I missed out on a net profit of 7 x stakes. Not much downside on players priced in the 50s so worth bearing that in mind when such players are a potential bet.

The 60% falling at the first attempt is bang on my early post based on the assumption of you hitting fair odds. Only 13% should’ve got past bet 3 on that basis so, at 25%, you’re doing well. My prediction would be, unfortunately, that the number will fall back as the sample size increases.
I think, given the constraints of how the bets are structured, you’ll do well to hit fair odds. My take on it is you’re a reasonable darts player but have decided it will be more fun to try throwing while riding a bike!
You're last sentence is key and I am also interested in how this pans out in the longer term. Despite my scepticism I do wish you luck, it’s just that I think you will need luck to make a profit betting in this way.

Bet 87 (22): 16.34 points on Nottingham F +3 v West Brom at 1.04

The 60% falling at the first attempt is bang on my early post based on the assumption of you hitting fair odds. Only 13% should’ve got past bet 3 on that basis so, at 25%, you’re doing well. My prediction would be, unfortunately, that the number will fall back as the sample size increases.
I think, given the constraints of how the bets are structured, you’ll do well to hit fair odds. My take on it is you’re a reasonable darts player but have decided it will be more fun to try throwing while riding a bike!
You're last sentence is key and I am also interested in how this pans out in the longer term. Despite my scepticism I do wish you luck, it’s just that I think you will need luck to make a profit betting in this way.

10 points on Gibbs-White (Sheffield U) at 11/4 PP. Be nice to end the bad run with what looks like a particularly decent price.