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Gooner’s 16/1

JdsGooner90

By JdsGooner90
in Glory Hunters

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JdsGooner90
JdsGooner90

5/5 Bank @ £91.20 Finally hit the winning run.  Going to change this thread from 20/1 to 16/1 and call this one a winner , not worth risking over £90.00 on a 1/6 shot.

harry_rag
harry_rag

The 60% falling at the first attempt is bang on my early post based on the assumption of you hitting fair odds. Only 13% should’ve got past bet 3 on that basis so, at 25%, you’re doing well. My predic

harry_rag
harry_rag

You've not accidentally walked under a black cat have you? Have you got any thoughts on how long to stick with this approach? The thing that keeps striking me (in terms of you being up against it

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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12 hours ago, JdsGooner90 said:

Does remind me however how possible these challenges are. Bit more luck and I could have competed it on the first attempt.

Sorry but can't resist the urge to reply to that one, genuinely interested in "how possible" you think it is with regards to the odds you're betting at. The second sentence reminds me of a crude analogy relating to what it would take for my auntie to be my uncle! :) "Bit less luck" and the attempt could have ended at bet 1, 2 or 3.

By my maths, assuming you were betting at entirely fair odds, this is roughly what you can expect in the long run:

60% of attempts end at bet 1

20% end at bet 2

6.67% end at bet 3

4.44% end at bet 4

2.96% end at bet 5

1.19% end at bet 6

4.74% succeed

So nearly 87% of your attempts should be over before bet 4. I'd love to see you defy those numbers and make a decent profit in the long run; let's see how things stand after 100 attempts!

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JdsGooner90

JdsGooner90

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32 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Sorry but can't resist the urge to reply to that one, genuinely interested in "how possible" you think it is with regards to the odds you're betting at. The second sentence reminds me of a crude analogy relating to what it would take for my auntie to be my uncle! :) "Bit less luck" and the attempt could have ended at bet 1, 2 or 3.

By my maths, assuming you were betting at entirely fair odds, this is roughly what you can expect in the long run:

60% of attempts end at bet 1

20% end at bet 2

6.67% end at bet 3

4.44% end at bet 4

2.96% end at bet 5

1.19% end at bet 6

4.74% succeed

So nearly 87% of your attempts should be over before bet 4. I'd love to see you defy those numbers and make a decent profit in the long run; let's see how things stand after 100 attempts!

You do love to break things down don’t you :ok :lol 

I have started quite a few of these challenges, some have done well some not so well but I have never really stuck with them so plan to with this thread lets see what happens. 

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