harry_rag

Goals for Bacca and Williams last night.
47 winners from 138 bets (34.06%), +24.01 points with an ROI of 17.4%.

After another rethink a change of tactic once more. This time I'm throwing the kitchen sink at the problem, using my own ratings method and back to relying on my long held view that selling is the most profitable. So a whole hat full of spread mini-performance sells on tonight's domestic programme.
Home   mini Away   mini           20 - 23 15 - 18 Aston Villa - Cardiff SellHOME   22 - 25 13 - 16 Bristol City - Birmingham   SellAWAY 12 - 15 22 - 25 Burton - Hull   SellAWAY 36 - 39 8 - 11 Fulham - Reading   SellAWAY 18 - 21 17 - 20 Ipswich - Barnsley   SellAWAY 16 - 19 22 - 25 Nott'm Forest - Brentford SellHOME   27 - 30 12 - 15 Preston - Leeds   SellAWAY 24 - 27 13 - 16 QPR - Sheffield Weds   SellAWAY 20 - 23 14 - 17 Sheffield United - Middlesbrough   SellAWAY 19 - 22 19 - 22 Sunderland - Norwich   SellAWAY 12 - 15 22 - 25 Bolton - Millwall   SellAWAY 26 - 29 11 - 14 Blackpool - Northampton SellHOME   10 - 13 26 - 29 Gillingham - Blackburn SellHOME   20 - 23 16 - 19 Oxford - Fleetwood Town SellAWAY 12 - 15 23 - 26 Rochdale - Wigan SellHOME   15 - 18 19 - 22 AFC Wimbledon - Charlton   SellAWAY 19 - 22 17 - 20 Morecambe - Chesterfield SellHOME   17 - 20 18 - 21 Stevenage - Mansfield   SellAWAY 27 - 30 11 - 14 Swindon - Yeovil   SellAWAY 22 - 25 15 - 18 Barrow - Eastleigh SellHOME   20 - 23 14 - 17 Boreham Wood - Macclesfield SellHOME   13 - 16 24 - 27 Chester - Bromley SellHOME   20 - 23 15 - 18 Ebbsfleet - Wrexham   SellAWAY 13 - 16 23 - 26 Halifax - Sutton SellHOME   14 - 17 22 - 25 Guiseley - Dag and Red   SellAWAY 24 - 27 15 - 18 Maidenhead - Woking   SellAWAY 22 - 25 13 - 16 Solihull - Maidstone SellHOME   15 - 18 22 - 25 Torquay - Fylde SellHOME   33 - 36 7 - 10 Tranmere - Gateshead   SellAWAY

Selection 9
09.04.18 6pm
Lillestrøm to win @1.85 for 10pts
 
All prices for this blog are taken from Bet365 price are higher at other bookmakers but I wish for this blog being kept at one bookmakers as I wanna show that what I do can turn over a profit without the need of finding the highest price.
 
Of course to max profit and beat the bookmakers its advised to take highest odds as possible but for this project I wanna concentrate against one bookmaker. So Me vs bet 365 odds compilers if you will hope a few are enjoying what I do.
 

Maybe we should be competing to see who can be first back to -300, rather than -200?
We can then change it to first back to -400 at a later stage.

Fusitua, Simmonds, Woodburn and Vakatawa the winners since the last update,
45 winners from 135 bets (33.33%), +18.43 points with an ROI of 13.65%.

Currently Data's odds for winning the challenge shorten every time I place another bet!

J League is Now up and running I will post all selections in around an hours time for over the weekend

Morris obliges for the second week in a row. Probably be more for later or early tomorrow.

Clarke and Ronnie for 2 from 3..
40 winners from 124 bets (32.26%), +15.26 points with an ROI of 12.31%.

No cards so a winning bet.
21 winners from 29 selections, +16.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 54.09%. +15.55 points to level stakes with an ROI of 53.62%.

I'm now 300 points down in my "Daily Spread" thread so we're not doing much of a job promoting the merits of spread betting! 
Let's see who can get the debit down to 200 points first!

Always nice to get them home and hosed early on!
Clarke last night so 2 out of 3 since last update.

No problem. Also, apologies for the excess of "gives" in my opening sentence! 

No cards so a winning bet.
21 winners from 29 selections, +16.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 54.09%. +15.55 points to level stakes with an ROI of 53.62%.

Andreu the only winner from today's 6 bets but, at 11/2, still enough for a modest profit.
38 winners from 121 bets (31.4%), +12.7 points with an ROI of 10.5%.

Big fan of Tyrrell Hatton
Has all the tools to take on any major challenge
Each Way @ 70-1 [6 places] with Betfred

Football is my main game but with it being a relatively quiet week I've had chance to delve in to some golf betting for the first time in a while.
In golf I like to keep things simple; I look for current & course form using my own 'adjusted par' ratings for each tournement to identify potential wagers.
Luke List ticks both boxes for me; in his previous 4 tournements he's been -5.5, -2.8, -12.8 and -1.2 on my adjusted par ratings and scored -11.6 and -0.9 on his previous 2 visits to the track.
He's available at 25/1 with Skybet paying 8-places (Best price 28/1)

First major of the year starts tomorrow [ANA]
Brooke Henderson
Top 20 Finish @ 7-5  Skybet
Looks a decent play as she has finished inside this mark on the course two of the last 3 years

Good luck!

A 1 point gain from my last foray, so still a big hole to climb out of. Today's much reduced league fixtures throw up the following 2 spread bets ...
BUY Plymouth away mini 14-17 (SX)
BUY Boreham Wood away mini 15-18 (both)

We win again.
20 winners from 28 selections, +15.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 52.54%. +14.55 points to level stakes with an ROI of 51.96%.

Never bet on friendlies and, perhaps, never put too much faith in a RP preview! 
I'm reasonably disciplined generally but that was, perhaps, a sloppy bet and certainly not one strong enough to put up in this thread. Lesson learned, added to the list!

Thank you harry_rog I will apply your sugestion as soon as possible, your answer make sense to me. I already have model for team goal using poisson.

For tomorrow, Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Liverpool v Watford, 1pt at 1.95 with 365.

For better or worse I'm in for a buy of Bradford's goal rush at 10 with SPIN. Good luck if you decide to play the mini performance, especially with the goals element!