Football Mini-Performance Spreads

[Data]

A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go.
Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot.

Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet.

** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts,  +10pts for each goal scored. However, one sting in the tail is 15pts are deducted for each and every red card conceded.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Data
correction

[harry_rag]

Good luck. Never a market I've really focused on but can see its appeal. I think it's because you need to have a view on multiple factors including the negative for a red card and partly because it includes both goals (which I do like to bet on) and the match result (less so).

[Data]

IMO the quotes appear to factor in the red card deduction more than necessary, making this (again in my opinion) one of the more favourable markets for buyers. But I know unlike me, you're an enthusiastic buyer anyway.

[harry_rag]

Well done. Hashtag should've followed as they no doubt say on Twitter! 

[Data]

Lucky start? a 3-1 home win for a make-up of 45, so 27 pts won. We'll see how this progresses.

[Data]

Tonight I've a fancy for Norwich's chances on their visit to Wolves. So it's a BUY of the 8-11 about Norwich mini perf quoted by both big firms. The 27 points gain from my first win looks big enough to cover any but the most disastrous outcome for Norwich, but hey, I'm expecting to collect!

[harry_rag]

Well done again, I missed that one. 

I literally can't buy a win with my spread bets in here at the moment!

[Data]

A nice +14 from the game, not sure how you'd quantify +41 from 2 bets in terms of ROI though.

Seems the more I research the luckier I get, only two bets I know but I'm quite optimistic about this. Not had a lucrative footy strategy for a few years, since I did rather well with total goal minutes spreads (unfortunately it didn't roll over well into the following season) However, I must temper my enthusiasm having had more football false dawns than I can count.

What I really enjoy about spread betting is getting away from the stark binary yes/no, win/lose of traditional betting.

Take the match last night . . .

Kickoff: 0-0 I'm standing at -1 point
14' Wolves 1-0, my position now -11
25' Wolves 2-0, my position unchanged
27' Score now 2-1, I'm -1 again
90' 2-2, Norwich score in injury time, I finish +14

[Data]

They're marking 'em up for the weekend, so going in early. There may be more to follow . . .

Burton (v Milwall) a BUY @ 13-16
Sunderland (v Boro) a BUY @ 13-16
(Wigan v) Rochdale a BUY @ 7-10 (SX)
(Sutton v ) Guiseley a BUY @ 7-10
Woking (v Boreham Wood) a BUY @ 14-17 (SPIN)

[Data]

Another to add to my weekend list

Fulham (v Wolves) 17-20 BUY
 

[Data]

Well, back down to earth with a -19 point loss from my weekend picks. Landing a -15 for a red card did most of the damage I suppose, but taking the occasional dismissal is an inbuilt hazard that is inevitable with mini performances.

Now standing at +22 from eight bets, onward and upward.

[Data]

Just one pick from the midweek league games . . .

Reading (v Sheffield Utd).  BUY Reading's 16-19

[Data]

-9 was the outcome this evening leaving the winning pot now at +13 from 9 bets. See if I can steer away from the red this coming weekend.

[Data]

After the weekend's weather-hit fixture list I'm back on track - and adding some variety into the mix.

Mini Performances: (1point bets)

Fulham v Sheff Utd:  Sell the away side's 13-16
Walsall v Rochdale: Buy home spread of 16-19 (SX)
Mansfield v Lincoln: Buy home spread of 19-22

WINDEX: (2pt bets)
(each team 25pts a win, 10pts a draw, else 0pts)

Birmingham v Middbro: Buy Home windex of 7.5-9 (SPIN)
Fulham v Sheff Utd: Buy Home windex of 14.5-16 (SPIN)
Walsall v Rochdale: Buy Home windex of 10.3-11.8 (SX)

[Data]

Well, 2 wins & 4 losses from yesterday evening's little lot for a net loss of 52.80.

Leaving the accounts at -39.80 from 15 bets. How wonderfully volatile spread betting is!

[harry_rag]

Tell me about it! Definitely a long game. Are you continuing with this for a while yet?

[Data]

Yes, will carry on - the bookies satchels are full of money from those who quit when they're losing.
However, as you'll understand, the roller coaster journey of spread betting can make those used to traditional odds feel a little breathless at times.

[Tiffy]

@Data

Interesting thread from you, and I have also been backing performances, most notably backing Wigan against Man City in the cup.

 I also made a small profit on the BORO V BRUM game this week.

I have mainly done goals though, buying or selling the first goal, and really seem to have got my eye in on this. I'll post some results up when I get around to it.

[Data]

@harry_rag  @Tiffy

For this weekend the matches that I have rated outside of the spread quotes are . . .

MINI PERFORMANCES	Home		Away
Bournemouth v Tottenham	10	13	31	34		SellA
Stoke v Man City	6	9	39	42		SellA
Hull v Norwich	18	21	16	19			BuyA
Wigan v Scnuthorpe	28	31	9	12			BuyA
Forest Green v Notts County	16	19	20	23	BuyH	SellA
Dag and Red v Tranmere	15	18	21	24		SellA

 

WINDEX	Home		Away
Ipswich v Sheff Utd	10	11.5	12	13.5	BUYH
Forest Green v Notts County	9.5	11	12.4	13.9	BUYH
Yeovil v Newport	11	12.5	10.9	12.4	BUYH
Dag and Red v Tranmere	9	10.5	13.1	14.6	BUYH

Mini performances are 1pt bets, Windex at 2 pts.

[Data]

Simply to say "Well, that didn't go to plan" would be somewhat of an understatement. Far worse than random in fact, a blind man on a galloping horse at midnight with no moon . . . .

If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs, you've obviously not fully grasped the situation. A loss of 129 points from the weekend drags this project down to a minus 168.80 to carry forward. Teresa May says "I'm not a quitter", which is hardly an endorsement of such an outlook on life, but hey ho, I've got a very deep hole to drag myself out of with not many weeks of the season to redress the situation.

So, a fresh assessment of my selection methods is obviously needed here. With that in mind, tonight I'm going for what my gut tells me looks a risky punt, but my new method of appraisals suggests it looks to be value.

Sheff Utd v Burton, buy Burton the 7-10 MP

[Tiffy]

Ouch!

Keep going until the end of the season mate, it will be a good trial for next season if nothing else, or you carry on for the World Cup.

I was tempted to back QPR on the MP last night, I fancied them to score. instead I bet my entire bank on a low fixed odds "bank builder"double of Villa & Wolves

Villa are next in my little black book, it's going to be busy on the day of the revolution, we've already got Arsenal & Milwall in there. I'll have to put Palace off till the following day as the firing squad will need a rest after that lot!

[Data]

A 10 point loss, so my bottomless pit gets a little deeper and the sides ever more slippery. Still I'm up for a challenge and this weekend will signal the start of my great recovery.

Perhaps?!?

[Data]

From tomorrow's fixture list I'm going with a couple of mini performances. . .

Oldham v Portsmouth,  BUY home spread of 18-21
Plymouth v Bristol Rovers,  BUY home spread of 20-23

Keep on diggin' !!

[Data]

A 1 point gain from my last foray, so still a big hole to climb out of. Today's much reduced league fixtures throw up the following 2 spread bets ...

BUY Plymouth away mini 14-17 (SX)
BUY Boreham Wood away mini 15-18 (both)

[harry_rag]

Good luck!

[Data]

Thanks - I know I need it. Big time!

[Data]

The car crash continues. This is getting personal now that the deficit has crashed through the -200 barrier. Now standing a loss of 202.80 from 31 bets.

Having trawled through these records I now have from the past few weeks I have reconfigured my strategy (once again!). Determined to make this work I'm going for a . . .

home buy of Real Zaragoza's mini-perf in La Liga 2 at 33-36 (SX)

[Data]

Have I killed a robin, or is this is some form of reverse Midas, whatever I touch, the exact opposite turns to gold. There's a fortune to be made merely betting the other team where I'm expressing a preference.
Real Zaragoza (WWWWW) at home to Sevilla B (LLLLL) and the away side takes the game 0-1 at a whopping 9/1, Real only managing a single shot on target!

Now -238.80 from 32. Has anyone ever been soooo wrong before I wonder?

[Data]

A sucker for punishment, I'm buying Perugia away mini (Serie B) tonight at 18-21 (SX)

[Tiffy]

On 25/03/2018 at 5:18 PM, Data said:

Have I killed a robin, or is this is some form of reverse Midas, whatever I touch, the exact opposite turns to gold. There's a fortune to be made merely betting the other team where I'm expressing a preference.
Real Zaragoza (WWWWW) at home to Sevilla B (LLLLL) and the away side takes the game 0-1 at a whopping 9/1, Real only managing a single shot on target!

Now -238.80 from 32. Has anyone ever been soooo wrong before I wonder?

I have a mate who loves to bet on the horses. I always joke that I am going to lay everything he backs, as he never seems to get a winner. 

Think I may do the same with you

But let's face it, I've had a dreadful season so far. My wife said to me "I do t know why you spend so much time reading & researching, you don't win anything" She is right. I worked out that if I had a part time job, on minimum wage, and worked the hours instead, I would be better off!

But where is the fun in that?