First to score using poisson

[sovaBetMario]

How to calculate betting odds for which team will score first goal in game using poisson?..Thanks for any advice!

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @sovaBetMario 

[harry_rag]

I give give you a very simplistic answer, not saying it gives genuine true odds in the real world.

First you need to arrive at the goals expectation for each team. How you do that is up to you. Take it from the spread prices or some other source or develop your own system.

Take a game where the goals expectation is 2.6 and neither team is favourite so they're in for 1.3 goals each. Poisson will tell you the probability of 0 goals and 1 or more goals (7.43% and 92.57%). If there's a 92.57% chance of a 1st goal and each team has an equal chance of scoring it then they each have a 46.285% chance of scoring it for odds of 2.16 each.

Let's say one team was favourite and the goals were split 1.6 to 1.0, Poisson would still give the same chance of 0 or 1 or more goals. The favourites are in for 61.54% of the expected goals, the underdogs 38.46%. Just apply those % to the 92.57% chance of their being a goal and you get 56.97% and 35.6% for 1st goal odds of 1.76 and 2.81.

That's it, allowing for sloppy rounding here and there. It made more sense in my head but see what you make of it!

[sovaBetMario]

Thank you harry_rog I will apply your sugestion as soon as possible, your answer make sense to me. I already have model for team goal using poisson.

[harry_rag]

No problem. Also, apologies for the excess of "gives" in my opening sentence!