harry_rag

Written Wednesday December 23rd, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
After a series of five straight weeks without a negative record against the spread (ATS), we underwent a bad Week 15. Indeed, we went 0-2-1, including the 5-star pick that lost badly.
I certainly did not expect the Steelers to play that poorly against a weak division rival on national television after losing two consecutive games. That was an awful performance by Pittsburgh.
It was a reminder that we cannot win every week! Losing runs are inevitable in the sports betting industry, unfortunately!
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track right away!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): CHICAGO BEARS -7.5 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Chicago is 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more. They are clearly surging and the light has turned on for Mitchell Trubisky. After crushing the Texans, Da Bears pulled off the upset in Minnesota last week.
Trubisky has completed more than 70% of his passes in each of his last three outings, which is impressive! During this time period, he has tossed 5 TD passes versus a single interception. He is also a decent runner, when necessary. There is no reason to believe he cannot do it again when facing a vulnerable Jags defense.
Another guy that has been on fire lately is running back David Montgomery. He has averaged 109 rushing yards over his past four games, while scoring a total of six touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average during these four meetings has been even more impressive: a whopping 6.1!
The Bears defense remains a steady force and they should create problems to whatever quarterback will be under center for Jacksonville. I believe Chicago wins this one by a good margin.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Enough is enough. The bad streak must end for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
In what should be a fairly cold day in Pittsburgh, I could see Philip Rivers struggling, especially considering he is not mobile and about to face a feisty pass rush. Indianapolis will be forced to make quick throws, which will make them more predictable.
The Steelers are showing a great 15-4-2 ATS record in their last 21 games as home underdogs. That’s pretty convincing!
Meanwhile, Indy has beaten the spread just once in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.
Big Ben looked awful last week and he is now facing a pretty tough Colts defense. However, Indianapolis is better defending the run, but the Steelers happen to throw the ball very often.
I think the Steelers outlast the Colts in a tough, physical and low-scoring game.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2 AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys run defense ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry. As for Philly, they hold the second-best yards-per-rush average in the entire league. That’s a good recipe for success, especially after switching from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts, the latter being a much more dangerous QB as a runner.
Hurts has really been impressive in his first two starts with 4 TD passes and zero interception, while rushing for an average of 84.5 yards per game in those matches. And that included a game against the stout Saints defense!
The Cowboys have a good trio of receivers, but Dalton has been fairly inconsistent. He has a low yards per attempt average and he missed many easy throws last weekend. Also, Philadelphia’s defense is a notch better than Dallas’, and their front four should give problems to the Cowboys offensive line.
The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-4 ATS following a straight up win.
One interesting statistic: during the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the favorite has beaten the spread eight times.
Ultimately, I trust Jalen Hurts to be able to extend drives both with his arm and his legs more than Andy Dalton. Philly takes this game.
PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +9.5 VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Jets are coming off a stunning upset win over the Rams last week, so many people will anticipate a letdown here. I don’t expect New York to come up with another victory, but this spread seems pretty high to me.
The Browns have more incentive for sure, but they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Cleveland has beaten the spread just once over the last seven contests where they were road favorites.
Meanwhile, the Jets present a nice 9-3-1 ATS record at home against teams with a winning record. You might also be surprised to hear New York has beaten the spread in four of their last five games in December.
Cleveland relies a lot on its running game on offense. That’s good news for the Jets, whose run defense ranks 8th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. It will come down to whether they can slow down Baker Mayfield, who has been on a roll. He is susceptible to making mistakes, though.
Crowder, Perriman and Mims are good enough to allow the Jets offense to move the ball against an average Cleveland defense. Running back Ty Johnson has also provided a good spark on some plays for New York.
I like New York to keep it within 9 points.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
LEAN #1: Texans -8.5 vs Bengals (Cincy won’t play with the same intensity after a hard-fought game in Pittsburgh last Monday, they also lose one day of rest from playing Monday, Texans mad after losing two close calls against the Colts recently, Houston holds an 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 meetings with the Bengals);
LEAN #2: Titans +3.5 at Packers (I don’t feel good at all fading Aaron Rodgers in a primetime game, especially with one extra day of rest and after being at home in four of the past five weeks, but I’m still going to do it. Packers are 1-6 ATS after an outright win, while Tennessee is 7-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record);

 
Merry Christmas to all of you!!! I am super grateful to have such great followers like you!!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/nMWjWPEhzCI

?? Merry Christmas everyone ??

Yeah, sorry, not sure my sarcasm translated very well in that post!

Best wishes to everyone for Christmas and the New Year.
May it be a better one generally and a successful one from a punting perspective! 

Merry Christmas, @Perfect Storm! Here's to 2021 with the optimistic hope that Bolton can somehow turn their fortunes around and once again rise up the leagues! Looking forward to more of your posts after Christmas! 

Best wishes to everyone for Christmas and the New Year.
May it be a better one generally and a successful one from a punting perspective! 

Best wishes to everyone for Christmas and the New Year.
May it be a better one generally and a successful one from a punting perspective! 

Best wishes to everyone for Christmas and the New Year.
May it be a better one generally and a successful one from a punting perspective! 

A simple premise, as of 1st Jan I'll start posting an indicative stake for all the selections I post on here (whether in a personal quest or the thread for a specific sport) and I'll track the performance in here so I know whether or not they've been profitable.
I've been posting a few more footy bets lately and, after a bit of a barren spell, have found a few decent winners. Rather than having a general sense of my posted bets doing well or badly I thought I'd track them so I know for sure. 
I'd expect them to be profitable over the course of a year (ever the optimist) but will expose the performance for all to see either way. 

Thanks for you very much for your help this year. Happy Christmas and I am looking forward to next year?

4 qualifiers yesterday but none came home.
Bank is +€2,605

We're going into a quieter period now for us a few days. There's no racing today, 24th or the 25th. There may be selections posted between now and the New Year but its unlikely. There are a lot of horses being specifically primed for this period and the results can be erratic so we tend to leave off until the first days of the New Year.

Thank you again for your interest & we'll be in touch again shortly.

Well said @StevieDay1983 and I must echo your sentiments regarding Punters Lounge and it's members.
A big thankyou from me to all the moderators and key contributors to the site.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

Thanks Harry.
However I was sick for some time and i had a lot of work also. I am back now

Stoke vs Tottenham
The third Quarter-Final tie in the EFL Cup this week is a 5:30pm GMT kick-off on Wednesday night when Championship play-off chasing Stoke taking on Premier League title contenders Tottenham at the Bet365 Stadium. On paper, this one looks done and dusted but can the London side cope with playing at the Britannia on a cold and, likely, wet midweek evening?
Stoke are starting to look like a real side again under Michael O'Neill. The Potters are in 7th place in the second tier of English football. It's 6 clean sheets in their last 7 league games showing how defensively sound this team has become. They have also progressed to this stage of the competition having not conceded a goal in any of their 4 ties so far. A big issue for the team is that they are without four goalkeepers for this game. Adam Davies and Angus Gunn have both been ruled out with injury before replacement keeper Niki Maenpaa joined them on the sidelines. Joe Bursik has been deputising but he is cup-tied. That means O'Neill must choose between 19 year old Blondy Nna Noukeu and 37 year old Andy Lonergan who hasn't played a competitive game in nearly two years. It's astonishing that the team has had such a resilient defensive record as of late.
Tottenham are the heavy favourites for this game but Jose Mourinho has already admitted he will field a mixed team of fringe players and first team players that he feels could do with the minutes on the pitch to improve sharpness. Spurs are clearly pushing for the Champions League spots in the Premier League and are already seen as the main challengers to Liverpool plus there is their Europa League campaign that is still on track. Throw in the congested festive schedule and the upcoming FA Cup and you can see why Mourinho is reluctant to go all out in this one. It'll be interesting to see who he starts but it's already known that Giovani Lo Celso, Erik Lamela, and Japhet Tanganga are all ruled out with injury.
Make no mistake that even with their injury concerns, this Stoke team will put up a fight. That's the beauty of what O'Neill does with his sides. He trains with a system that is resolute, dogged, and organised so that no matter what personnel changes are required he knows that whoever is coming in will do the job. Personally, I feel he'll opt for the experience of Lonergan tomorrow and he'll be well protected. I do think Tottenham will still prevail victorious but this won't be a stroll like some are predicting.
Draw (Stoke +1) @ 3.75 with Betway
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.32 with SBK

Brentford v Newcastle: Forss to score at 4 on BF, Da Silva to score at 6/1 with Fred and to do so from outside the area at 18/1 Skybet
No doubt Wilson scores and not the worst bet at the prices but a shade too short to tempt me in.

Da Silva scores, if not quite as far from goal as I was hoping. Happy to land the 6/1 though.
Arsenal v Man City: Foden to score at 5/2 Hills and to have 2+ shots on target at 11/4 PP. Silva to score at 4/1 with SPIN (my first ever fixed odds bet with them) and to score from outside the area at 45/1 Lads.
Sorry it's so close to kick off but that's how I roll sometimes!

Bet 42 - won 17 - 40% SR - 33% ROI - +15.10 P/L
?

Hello everyone,
All of us here at Punters Lounge would just like to wish you all a merry Christmas and a happy New Year! We think we can all agree that this year has been a very difficult one for us all and, in particular, this forum community.
We had to say goodbye, in tragic circumstances, to two beloved individuals who played a major part in making this site what it is today. Site owner Paul Ross, aka Sir Puntalot, and Graham Sarson, aka BillyHills, will never be forgotten and their legacy will live on through this site and the people that both work here and post here.
As we enter a new year, we’d like to say thank you to all of you members who have helped to make this forum a haven for friendly chat, sharing tips, and a place for escapism during these dark days. It gives us hope that the coming year can offer more optimism, positivity, and exciting times. Activity on the forum is growing stronger every day and it’s a delight to see the many brilliant interactions between our members.
Nobody knows what the future holds with the coronavirus pandemic but it’s heart-warming to see that we have a community here that is full of kind, generous, humorous, and likeable members. It’s a forum we should all be proud to be involved in.
Here’s to every single one of you that visit here, post here, and contribute to making Punters Lounge the place that Paul and Graham always wanted it to become. We are looking forward to see what 2021 brings!

Burnley vs Wolves
The Premier League action continues into Monday this week and the first of the remaining two fixtures to be played before Christmas is scheduled for 5:30pm GMT when a resurgent Burnley host an inconsistent Wolves at Turf Moor. The home team will be looking to get at least a point to move back out of the relegation zone but they will have to beat a resilient travelling side to do so.
Burnley might have had a terrible start to their campaign but their form is improving. Sean Dyche's men are back in the bottom three after Fulham's draw away to Newcastle over the weekend but it's now just 1 loss in their last 6 league games including going their last 3 league matches unbeaten. The Clarets have only conceded 1 goal in their last 296 minutes of league football but scoring goals is still a laborious task. Burnley have only scored 6 goals in their 12 league matches thus far. The statistics from their last game suggest that they were lucky to come away from their match against Aston Villa with a 0-0 draw but it's this dogged approach to games that is helping to drag them out of the mess they were in.
Wolves had big hopes for this season with no European football as a distraction but it's been slightly disappointing so far. Nuno Espirito Santo's side are in 11th place and 6 points off the top four. The 2-1 win against Chelsea in midweek was a fantastic response to the back-to-back defeats suffered against Liverpool and Aston Villa where Wanderers failed to register a goal in either game. 7 of the last 10 Wolves games have seen less than 2.5 goals scored so I'm not expecting a thrilling display here. Especially when you consider that Wolves have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away league matches.
OK, so I don't want to cast a dour tone on this game but we have the worst attack in the division (yes, even worse than Sheffield United!) in Burnley taking on a side that are renowned for their low-scoring matches. Burnley are a much-improved side in recent weeks but the last game showed they have been riding their luck. I just can't tell which Wolves team will turn up though. They're missing Raul Jimenez and until they find a prolific replacement during his absence then they'll continue to struggle to score goals. The last game against Chelsea certainly seemed a rare exception. I feel a draw is the best value here. Awful odds on less than 2.5 goals scored but I still have to back it.
Draw @ 3.25 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.58 with SBK

Despite the handicap of an early red card. Neither of my scorers obliged and that's me done in the LMS consolation comp!

The bet on de Bruyne obliges, maybe I should make all my selections while I’m outdoors! I ended up taking 3.35 on Firmino. Luckily I remembered to check if the bet was matched and decided to take the lower odds. I have a good track record of unmatched winners!

So another weekend of football is on us. Two or three things to note from this hectic schedule with games coming fast and faster.
1) Technical  will start to dominate work rate. Teams with technically superior players will dominate, as teams legs start to fade.
2) The big teams and big squads have a huge advantage. For example at Man United. Not much difference between McTominay and Matic, Shaw or Telles, Greenwood or Martial. 
3) It is far easier to defend than score goals, when the legs get heavy. I expect goals to dry up for most teams and would be leaning more and more towards under 2.5 goals than over.
Arsenal will get drilled at Everton. Everton coming off two great results, while Arsenal just look lost.
Getting ready for the Southampton Man City kick off. I expect a Saints win against a miss-firing City team. I really enjoy watching Oriol Romeu. Just so solid, never makes a mistake. I wish United would buy him. Danny Ings to find his scoring boots here.
Man United v Leeds. 
All the makings of a high scoring game here. United will probably concede, but I expect them to run out at least 2 goal winners, against such an open Leeds side. Leeds just play the most naive football. Way too open at the back. It plays perfectly into the fast break, Man United game. I would be backing Rashford to score here, and probably Fernades with a penalty. I like the 3-1, 4-1 scoreline and definitely the home win and over 2.5 goals here.
 
 

Firmino obliges (just as well for my fragile ego with so many goals scored). 
For Man City I’m on Gundogan to score at 7 on BF but the better bet is 7/5 with PP for KdB to have a shot on target from outside the area. Or so my gut tells me, based on quick look while out and about. As short as 8/15 elsewhere.

Palace v Liverpool: Ayew to score at 6.4 and Firmino to score at 3.65
Glutton for punishment, see if these can end the recent drought!

No problem thought I just googled Racing Post Sport and it was linked to on the first page I accessed.
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football/kevin-pullein-best-bet-of-the-weekend-and-thought-for-the-week/464139
His tips appear on a Friday night and his weekly "thoughts" column on a Thursday night.
It's just occurred to me that you might want to see previous week's selections in which case just type his name in the search box on that page and the past ones seem to pop up.