harry_rag

I wonder if covid-19 has had an impact on that. Players might be less enthusiastic about getting touch tight to the opposition?

Derby v Nottingham Forest: 20 points on >4.5 cards shown at 6/5, 5 on >5.5 cards shown at 3/1 and 10 on the same bet at 13/5, all with Uni
All sorts of boosts on offer for whatever reason, to differing stake limits (25% to smaller stakes, 5% otherwise). Ok at standard odds of 23/20 for >4.5 and 5/2 for >5.5.
Spreads are around 46-50 which is high for this division. Looks fair enough given the history of the fixture, ref stats are encouraging too. I'm thinking >4.5 is more or less a coin toss at worst and >5.5 closer to a 2/1 shot.

Scored last week and is 7/2 today with PP in the reverse fixture but 2/1 or less almost everywhere else. I'm going again, 20 points at 7/2 with 2 points on the brace at 25/1. Similar on the exchange.

Scored last week and is 7/2 today with PP in the reverse fixture but 2/1 or less almost everywhere else. I'm going again, 20 points at 7/2 with 2 points on the brace at 25/1. Similar on the exchange.

Update :
Singles :

Trebles :

 

Hills offering 7/2 “flash odds” (so be quick if it appeals) for Brighton to score in both halves. On the one hand it is a huge standout compared to the general price but Brighton don’t often cross the >1.5 line.

West Ham v Spurs: 15 points on a Son assist at 4/1 with PP
Hadn’t looked at the game but was flagged by someone I know (who is banging the winners in at the moment) and I have to agree he shouldn’t be that big against “big 6” opponents.

It appears Kev is having the weekend off as he doesn’t seem to have his usual column in today’s or tomorrow’s paper. I’ll check again tomorrow just in case he’s late with his homework!

Young Boys v Leverkusen: 20 points on Siebatcheu to score at 4.3 on BF
Tipped by someone whose opinion I trust on goalscorer bets (and, more importantly, who is able to hit a cow's arse with a banjo at the moment, unlike myself)! 
Up front for the hosts and on a par with Leverkusen's Schick according to the spreads but he's much shorter with the fixed odds firms. Apart from Paddy/BF Siebatcheu is 2/1 or less with most firms. Maybe the "truth" lies somewhere in the middle.

At least you are honest enough to say there is no money involved, but that then seems to mean it doesn't matter whether you succeed or not. Chances may be taken on bets because of that. I'm afraid the wheels won't stay on for too long.

Hey everyone,
 
If you are consciously or subconsciously following the treble came in. 
 
So we are on 13.92, very good start.
 
We are going for a follow onn bet.
 
 
coventry v norwich under 4.5 - 1.14
Porto v juventus under 4.5 - 1.08
seville v dortmund under 4.5 - 1.14 
everton v man city under 4.5 - 1.20
 
Total - 0.67
 
13.92  returns 23.37.
 
 
 

1 corner too many so a losing bet.
12 wins and 1 push from 19 bets. +5.225 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 28.24%, +4.725 points to level stakes with an ROI of 24.87%.

None of Leipzig's previous 22 games ended without a goal, so this match must at least promise us a goal. The German team is deprived of the home advantage and the neutral space would give Liverpool a small advantage over the Germans. There is a lot of attacking talent in both teams and in combination with their defensive problems, I expect them to find goals, helping both and to have more than two goals.
RB LEIPZIG vs LIVERPOOL @@@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.67
The absences of Neymar and Di Maria are sure to hurt Paris Saint-Germain's prospects of claiming a victory in the Barcelona match and the hosts are likely to be comfortable and relaxed - as opposed to a tired team, which has to deal with injuries. in all areas of the stadium. This does not mean that Pochettino men can not worry the hosts much this week - but they can find the back of the net - but Barcelona is almost undefeated at the moment and Messi has found his form before this meeting, so we give Barcelona a small advantage before the second match of March. I think we will have more than two goals, since both defensive lines have issues, to resist the offensive virtues of both clubs.
BARCELONA vs PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.55

Here are the ELO ratings for the Champions League this round. Not sure why the matches tonight aren't listed. We'll have a word with our source and look to get that sorted. Anyway, some nice tips above! @StefanBB has previewed both games well. I actually fear for Liverpool tonight. I think if they don't tighten up at the back then they could be on the wrong end of a heavy defeat. The Barcelona versus PSG is going to be very interesting. Is it the passing of the baton for a new era?
A couple of tricky games to call but I'm going to go for...
RB Leipzig vs Liverpool
RB Leipzig Draw No Bet @ 2.28 with Unibet
BTTS @ 1.62 with SBK
 
Barcelona vs PSG
Draw @ 4.10 with Sporting Index
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.45 with Betfair

Obviously, waggy can afford it as stated above. He also obviously enjoys betting so it is a positive thing for him in other aspects like time, energy and mental health. Some people find betting like a hobby, an interest and a way of releasing stress sometimes when looking into what to bet, reading previews etc. 
Again, you can have your own opinions but this thread has nothing to do with you. You've stated your opinion once, that's enough. There's no need to go on. Waggy can do what he likes and as long as he can afford the lost, it's fine. It's his way of betting for many years of his life and he's still surviving. So let him be. 

Profit for 5% commission +€3,120
Profit for 2% commission +€3,754
This is over 467 selections. Win only.

Very pleasing day yesterday with two great winners for Bailarico at 8.39 & Nellie French at 5.45.


16th February
16 Feb 2021 14:15 CATTERICK Ask Paddy 16 Feb 2021 15:15 CATTERICK Wishing And Hoping 16 Feb 2021 15:55 KEMPTON (A.W) Mabre 16 Feb 2021 16:25 KEMPTON (A.W) Mukha Magic 16 Feb 2021 16:55 KEMPTON (A.W) Clog Na Fola 16 Feb 2021 17:10 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Greek Kodiac 16 Feb 2021 17:40 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Flyin' High 16 Feb 2021 18:10 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Blue Moonrise 16 Feb 2021 19:10 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Spartan Fighter

Made up at 221 (17 x 13) for a 267 point profit, well done. No hotshots or subs tries so an 84 point profit for me from those sells.
Ireland beating France would be a decent result for the no Grand Slam bet.

When you say "preview", what do you mean, textual description and prediction, or statistics? For the former, PuntersLounge still has very good write up for a fair number of football matches, and other sports, too, especially tennis.
Personally, I don't pay too much attention to them, as I am also statistics junkie. I used various sites over the time, the favourite one TipsterArea.com, and then there are other good ones, such as BTFStats.com, SoccerWay.com (it also has textual preview), FootStats.co.uk, FootCharts.co.uk, SofaScore.com...
However, I also like to have raw data on my disposal, and then I do my manipulation with them. My favourite sources are Football-Data.co.uk and CGMBet.com; the later one is an incredible tool, I guess you are aware of its own successfull thread here:
I publish some of the tools I use on my site, BetGPS.com. I also like the spreadsheets available at OddsPredictor.org.uk, they have very interesting stats.

Easy peasy .
 
Very heavy rain forecast for Worcester area tomorrow to coincide with Worcester v Wasps game. Neither side going great guns although no relegation should relax the home side more than usual.
Nevertheless could be a scrappy, tight game worthy of selling match multis at 488 (SPIN).

Typical lapsed abstainer, couldn't resist Son assist at the price. 10 points at 7/1 PP or Lads. 
Got 2 in the cup in midweek (without the burden of my dosh). Despite the quality of opposition today I just don't think he should be quite so big.

Manchester City vs Tottenham
The Premier League has another huge game this weekend when league leaders Manchester City go head-to-head with Champions League chasing Tottenham in the 5:30pm GMT kick-off on Saturday at the Etihad Stadium. It was actually the visiting side who last inflicted a league defeat on the hosts but can they manage to pull off such a result again here?
Manchester City are undoubtedly one of the in-form teams in Europe right now. It's now 22 games since the Citizens last tasted defeat in a run that has seen the club move to 4 points clear at the top of the table with 2 games in hand on the chasing pack. Pep Guardiola could welcome back leading striker Sergio Aguero with the Argentine front man set to recover from his coronavirus-related absence. The defence has been vital for the team's recent form that has seen them win 15 matches in a row. Only 3 goals have been conceded in their last 14 league games. History could be made here with City set to equal the club's record of 7 home clean sheets in a row that was initially set back in the 1946/47 season. If you are looking for an anytime scorer bet than Ilkay Gundogan is the top scorer in the top flight of English football during 2021 having bagged 7 goals in his last 8 appearances.
Tottenham look a shadow of the side that were looking like potential title challengers earlier this season. Jose Mourinho has come under fire for his conservative tactics but he will undoubtedly be boosted by the return to fitness of star striker Harry Kane ahead of schedule. It's only 1 win from their last 6 away league matches in a run that has seen Spurs drop to 8th in the table and 4 points outside the top four. If Tottenham win this game then it'll be the first time they've beaten both Manchester clubs away from home in the same season since 1959/60. Son Heung-min has scored 6 goals in his last appearances against Manchester City so he might have a key say in the result of this game.
It's almost impossible to feel comfortable betting against Manchester City right now. Mourinho has got the better of Guardiola over recent meetings but the fact remains that City have won 7 of the last 10 meetings at the Etihad Stadium. I'm not sure what is going on with Tottenham but I would be hugely surprised if City didn't go on and seal another win in this one.
Manchester City & BTTS @ 3.30 with SBK
Anytime Scorer: Ilkay Gundogan @ 3.20 with SBK

I'm taking a bit of a break from fixed odds betting at the moment, certainly not going looking for it, as it were. That said, I've got a strong fancy for City to win convincingly today. I recognise it's Mourinho and the proverbial bus may have been finely tuned in the run up to the game but I've decided to back my conviction with a bet.
20 points on >3.5 Man City goals at 4/1 with PP or Sky Bet
I did consider buying their goal rush at 28 (3 goals edges you just into profit) but you really need 5 or more for a significant return and risk the maximum loss in the event of a shut out.
Clambering back onto the wagon now! 

This week we have the following, odds still available at the time of writing.
Under 10.5 Asian total corners in Charlton v Gillingham, 1pt at 1.9 with 365.

Good luck with the bets mate but, if this is a glory hunt, just put all the selections in a single thread and update the performance as you go. There’s no need, and it’s not the appropriate use of this section, to post a new thread every day. (And it’s not Tuesday today either!)