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Xtc12

Three Day Treble (Horses)

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Well now that Cheltenham is over we are back to normal life, if this coronavirus would go away.

How many times would you pick three winners in a day and actually have them done in a treble ? How many times would you have a treble up ?. Would you get BOG on the treble ?

I am going to do a treble over three days, one a day which will guarantee better odds.

I will " Cash Out ", very rarely if the odds drift and the first two horses pay 20\1.

A non - runner will act just like if it was a treble done on the same day.

The selections will be picked from my fancied horses every day - Day 1 will be odds of 3/1 or near, day 2 - 2\1 and Day 3 - Evens which will give me a treble of 23\1.

If I cannot get the price required I will pick the fancy just below the odds (so if my selection is day 1, 3\1 and none of my fancies are 3\1 I will take 11\4 or 5\2 and so on). The selection will always be below the odds required. (I have no control of prices)

Each selection will also be done singly.

What are my expectations : for the trebles,in about 12 months I hope to be somewhere about 45.5% ROI and the singles about 5% :hope . As we are chasing trebles we will have "Long Losing Runs"

All single bets will be 1 Pt

Trebles 1 Pt with any winnings going on the other legs, except if I cash out. All bets are with Bet365.

Stake will increase as/if the bank increases  ;) by how much will be decided as we go.

Think thats it :unsure

 

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Bollin Ace 16.20 Newcastle 2 Pts Win @ 3\1 (bog) 

(The single bet and the treble are included in the stake).

Fairly useful winning chaser at his best. Off 21 months, shaped as if retaining ability when third at Wetherby and duly built on that when runner-up at Sedgefield. Big player back down in class.

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9 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Bollin Ace 16.20 Newcastle 2 Pts Win @ 3\1 (bog) 

2nd - chased winner, went right 7th, lost 2nd approaching 12th, chased leaders, went modest 2nd run-in, no chance with winner

Dundrum Wood 15.25 Market Rasen 2 Pts WIn @ 6\4 (bog)

£270,000 Irish point winner who struck at second time of asking over hurdles following a wind op in 18.5f course novice in November. Excellent second on handicap debut since. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Dundrum Wood 15.25 Market Rasen 2 Pts WIn @ 6\4 (bog)

5th -  led, blundered 3 out, ridden and headed approaching next, soon weakened

Haasab 15.00 Southwell 2 Pts Win @ 9\4 (bog)

Back on track when landing an 11-runner conditionals event at Catterick in January and backed that up when second at Sedgefield since. Likely to give another good account.

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On 3/15/2020 at 9:51 PM, Xtc12 said:

Haasab 15.00 Southwell 2 Pts Win @ 9\4 (bog)

1st @ 9\4 - held up towards rear, headway after 3 out, went 3rd before 2 out, shaken up in 2nd before last, led last, kept on well run-in

Now Where or When 13.50 Down Royal 

Treble Bet 2 - 3.25 Pts Win @ 15\8

Singles 1 Pt Win 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Now Where or When 13.50 Down Royal 

3rd -  disputed early, chased leaders from 2nd, 4th halfway, pushed along after 4 out, ridden in 5th 3 out, no impression on leaders in moderate 3rd before next, kept on one pace

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On 3/19/2020 at 9:50 PM, Xtc12 said:

Juliet Rose 15.00 Dundalk @ Evs

1st @ 15/8 - 

Fakiera 13.40 Thurles @ Evs (bog)

Fairly useful form in bumpers and similar useful form when runner-up both starts in maiden hurdles at Naas and Leopardstown. Remains with potential, and looks the one to beat.

Treble / Leg 2 - 2.88 Pts Win 

Single 1 Pt Win 

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On 3/20/2020 at 10:58 PM, Xtc12 said:

Fakiera 13.40 Thurles @ Evs (bog)

2nd - disputed lead early on inner, 2nd halfway, mistake 4 out and pushed along in 4th before next, ridden and no impression approaching last, kept on one pace into 2nd run-in

Not much around tomorrow so no selection. 

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Even So 16.30 Naas @ 11\8 (bog)

Huge eye-catcher behind Blissful on debut before running out a ready winner of 1m Gowran maiden under more positive tactics in September. Classic entries and plenty more to come from her.

Treble Leg 1 - 1 Pt Win 

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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14 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Even So 16.30 Naas @ 11\8 (bog)

3rd -  slightly impeded away from stalls, waited with, soon raced in 7th, pushed along and headway and effort over 2f out on inner, challenged and every chance from over 1f out, edged right inside final furlong and kept on without matching front pair

Frontal Assault 17.00 Clonmel @ 11\4 (bog)

Showed plenty when placed in bumpers at Thurles and Fairyhouse, clear of rest when third behind 2 subsequent winners at latter track last month. Step up in trip will suit and obvious claims.

Treble Leg 1 - 1 Pt WIn 

Single - 1 Pt Win 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Frontal Assault 17.00 Clonmel @ 11\4 (bog)

5th -  tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 7f out, improved to dispute lead 3f out, ridden entering straight, headed 2f out, dropped to moderate 5th 1f out, no impression

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Stone Mason 13.00 Newcastle @ 11\8 (bog)

Caught the eye on handicap debut in a 10f Newbury event that worked out well when last seen for Roger Charlton. Gelded ahead of first start for new connections and dropped back in trip. More to come. 

Treble Leg 1 - 1 Pt Win

Single 1 Pt Win

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Stone Mason 13.00 Newcastle @ 11\8 (bog)

6th -  tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong

First Receiver 15.55 Kempton @ 7\4 (bog)

Encouraging third of 14 in strong Newmarket maiden on debut in July. Not quite at that level when runner-up over C&D 4 months later but remains a useful prospect. 

Treble - Leg 1 - 1 Pt WIn

Single - 1 Pt Win

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On 6/2/2020 at 8:29 AM, Xtc12 said:

First Receiver 15.55 Kempton @ 7\4 (bog)

1st @ 7\4 - broke smartly, made most, pushed clear over 1f out, comfortable - Returns 2.75

Dutch Story 14.30 Yarmouth @ 2\1

Treble - Leg 2 - 2.75 Pts Win

Single - 1 Pt Win

 

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Dutch Story 14.30 Yarmouth @ 2\1

2nd -  tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish

Setarhe 16.10 Newmarket @ 11\4

Foaled March 27. €62,000 foal, 160,000 gns yearling, Footstepsinthesand filly. Half-sister to 6f winner Inverleigh. Dam unraced half-sister to smart winner up to 1¼m (stayed 1½m) Ransom O'War.

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Setarhe 16.10 Newmarket @ 11\4

1st @ 11\4 -  dwelt in rear, switched right over 2f out, headway over 1f out, edged left and led inside final furlong, ran on

Brando 14.25 Newmarket @ 13\8

Treble - Leg 2 - 3.75 Pts Win

Single 1 Pt WIn

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On 6/5/2020 at 8:16 AM, Xtc12 said:

Brando 14.25 Newmarket @ 13\8

5th -  slowly into stride, held up in touch in last pair, some headway and switched left 2f out, never on terms

Third Kingdom 12.55 Newcastle @ 5\2 (bog)

Make Believe colt. Dam US 2-y-o Grade 1 8.5f winner, later won Canadian Grade 3 6.5f event. Top yard has outstanding record at this venue. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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On 6/6/2020 at 8:44 AM, Xtc12 said:

Third Kingdom 12.55 Newcastle @ 5\2 (bog)

3rd - not much room start, towards rear, closed 4f out, outpaced over 2f out, went 3rd and kept on inside final furlong

Annie Quicksteps 16.00 Lingfield @ 5\2 (bog)

Showed improved form to get off the mark here in December. Good third back here since, staying on strongly and shaping as if a return to 1m will suit. Leading claims. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn

Single - 1 Pt Win

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Annie Quicksteps 16.00 Lingfield @ 5\2 (bog)

6th - raced wide in mid-division, plugged on inside final furlong, no threat

Summer Sands 17.05 Naas @ 5\2 (bog)

Didn't need to be at best when winning 17-runner listed Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar (6f, soft) by 2¾ lengths from Troubador, easily. Obvious player on first outing since leaving Richard Fahey.

Treble - 1st Leg -  1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt Win

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On 6/8/2020 at 8:16 AM, Xtc12 said:

Summer Sands 17.05 Naas @ 5\2 (bog)

8th -  settled behind leaders towards outer, ridden to close up behind leader 2f out, drifted left 1 1/2f out, under pressure in 7th 1f out, kept on one pace

Caravan of Hope 19.00 Wolves @ 6\4 (bog)

Career best when winning 14-runner handicap at Doncaster (14.5f, heavy, 9/4) on final start of 2019 (gelded since). 5 lb rise fair and there may be more to come from this lightly-raced 4-y-o.

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt Win

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On 6/9/2020 at 8:42 AM, Xtc12 said:

Caravan of Hope 19.00 Wolves @ 6\4 (bog)

2nd - held up in mid-division, good headway on outside tracking leaders 6f out, went 2nd over 3f out, led over 1f out, narrowly headed inside final furlong, stayed on but always held

Capla berry 19.45 Yarmouth @ 5\2 (bog)

Encouraging start to career when third of 6 in maiden here last summer. Failed to build on that on the AW next 2 starts but remains with potential heading into handicaps. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt Win

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Capla berry 19.45 Yarmouth @ 5\2 (bog)

1st @ 7\2 -  tracked leaders, led over 1f out, ridden out

Strawberry Rock 16.20 Beverley @ 6\4 (bog)

€32,000 Rock of Gibraltar gelding. Dam maiden half-sister to smart 2-y-o 7f/1m winner Tony Curtis. Likely sort on paper in a race which won't take that much winning. 

Treble - Leg 2 - 4.5 Pts

Single - 1 Pt

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Strawberry Rock 16.20 Beverley @ 6\4 (bog)

1st @ 15\8 -  prominent, led 3f out, ridden and edged left over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, easily

Winter Power 13.00 Wolverhampton @ 8\11 (bog)

Once-raced maiden. 13/8, third of 12 in maiden at Newcastle (5f) on debut 10 days ago, not seen to anything like best effect racing away from her main rival. Looks sure to improve. 

Treble - Leg 3 - 12.94 Pts

Single - 1 Pt Win

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On 6/12/2020 at 8:46 AM, Xtc12 said:

Winter Power 13.00 Wolverhampton @ 8\11 (bog)

3rd -  led, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong

Florence Camille 17.10 Curragh @ 3\1 (bog)

Promising type. 10/1, third of 10 in maiden at Cork (8f, soft) on debut, not knocked about. Off 10 months. Up in trip. Likely to improve. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt Win 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Florence Camille 17.10 Curragh @ 3\1 (bog)

7th - mid-division, not clear run approaching straight, pushed along over 2f out and no impression over 1f out, no extra

Dakota Gold 14.35 Doncaster @ 7\4 (bog)

Capped terrific 2019 campaign by landing a listed race at Ascot (5f, good to soft). Couldn't rule out further progress this year and he's the one to beat, despite carrying a penalty. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt Win

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On 6/14/2020 at 9:01 AM, Xtc12 said:

Dakota Gold 14.35 Doncaster @ 7\4 (bog)

5th -last to break, in rear but in touch, ridden over 2f out, soon beaten 

Run for Oscar 15.05 Fairyhouse @ 9\4 (bog)

Making GB/IRE Flat debut. 15/8, won 11-runner bumper at Leopardstown (16f, soft) 105 days ago, keeping on well. Off 105 days. 

Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win

Single - 1 Pt WIn

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11 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Run for Oscar 15.05 Fairyhouse @ 9\4 (bog)

7th -  slowly into stride, in rear, short of room after 4f and briefly pushed along, ridden in moderate 12th entering straight, kept on one pace

Update :

Singles :

image.png.d5e7593b8da2027c0ce5effa63126261.png

Trebles :

image.png.529af65d039793ecba2300c0bd1180ef.png

Well speaks for itself. Reached the third leg of the treble once, let down by an odds - on chance.

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Wrath of Hector 18.15 Chelmsford @ 11\4 (bog)

Thrice-raced maiden. Sixth of 7 in minor event at Bath (5f, soft, 100/1) when last seen 8 months ago. Been gelded. May well improve now handicapping on debut for shrewd yard. 

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On 6/16/2020 at 8:34 AM, Xtc12 said:

Wrath of Hector 18.15 Chelmsford @ 11\4 (bog)

2nd - steadied start, raced wide, held up towards rear, ridden and ran on strongly final furlong, not reach winner

You've Charmed me 17.20 Chelmsford @ 9\4 (bog)

Once-raced maiden. 5/4, third of 8 in maiden at Lingfield (5f, AW) on debut 10 days ago. Sure to pull out more now up in trip, so should take all the beating. 

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