harry_rag

Another winner without the need for the handicap start.
15 wins and 1 push from 22 bets. +7.975 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 37.09%, +7.475 points to level stakes with  an ROI of 33.98%.

Arsenal vs Tottenham
The undoubted biggest game of the weekend in the UK schedule is the North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham at 4:30pm GMT on Sunday afternoon at the Emirates Stadium. Both of these two massive clubs are experiencing disappointing campaigns on a domestic front so far but can they get a win here to give themselves a psychological boost to push on and potentially gatecrash the Champions League qualification battle?
Arsenal are still loitering in mid-table in the top flight of English football down in 10th place and 13 points behind 4th placed Chelsea but with 2 games in hand there will be a feeling that qualification for next season's elite European club competition isn't entirely out of their reach yet. Mikel Arteta's side have lost just 1 of their last 4 league games and there are glimpses of the potential of this squad being shown but they've still only won 2 of their last 7 league matches. The Gunners have lost 5 home league games already which is the most amount of home league defeats they have accrued in a season since 1994/95. However, they have only lost 2 of their last 35 home league encounters against Tottenham. Arteta has struggled against Jose Mourinho at Tottenham though having lost his two North London derbies played so far. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is an anytime scorer shout having scored 6 goals in his last 4 starts for the club.
Tottenham come into this game looking more like the side that stormed to the top of the table at the beginning of the season. Mourinho has got his key men clicking now and with Gareth Bale scoring 6 goals in his last 7 appearances for the club there's a feeling that the front three of Bale, Harry Kane, and Son Heung-min could devastate any top division defence. Spurs are in 7th place and only 6 points off the top four with 2 games in hand. Recent away form is a problem for Tottenham with the team managing just 2 wins from their last 9 away days in the league. Just 10 goals have been scored in their last 11 away league matches. The good news is that Tottenham have won 3 league games on the trot and with Kane scoring 11 goals in 14 appearances against Arsenal in all competitions they certainly have the fire power to trouble this Arsenal back-line.
Well, this is going to be a very interesting North London derby. Right off the bat, I'd have to back Tottenham to get the win but this awful record at Arsenal over recent years in the league and their horrid away form in the league is a worry for me. Arsenal do have the ability to pull a performance out of the bag against the higher placed sides. Thinking back to their wins over Manchester United, Chelsea, and Leicester this season. I still feel Tottenham are hitting their best form again and I'm still not convinced Arsenal have what it takes to qualify for Europe this season.
Tottenham Draw No Bet @ 2.06 with SBK
BTTS @ 1.71 with SBK

Well one year ago I started this thread hoping that I would show a profit today. As you can see I was a bit optimistic when it came to the trebles but I did have a "Longest Losing Run" of 42 bets. Finished the year today with a small treble which paid £5.40 for a profit of £4.40 
Trebles

For a Strike Rate of 6.45% we ended up with a ROI of 9.27%
On the other hand the Singles performed excellently with a SR of 35.07% for a ROI of 10.63%, over 5% higher than what was expected.

While looking at the results I checked to see what the result would have been if I had done doubles. It would of had a ROI of 28.50% for a profit of just under £60 for £1 bets. Because of this I will also do doubles this year and see how it goes.
Expectations for Year 2 : Singles 5% profit, Doubles 14% and the Trebles 9%
Lady Breffni 14.15 Limerick @ 2\1 (bog)
Fairly useful hurdler. Good fourth of 20 in handicap hurdle (7/1) at Leopardstown (18f, soft) 35 days ago, running on. Back up in trip. Yard in good form. Sure to go well. 
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Double - 1st Leg - 1 Pt Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
 

4 wins from 6 bets for a loss of 51 points.
Overall that makes it 76 winners from 96 bets for a return of +147 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +157 points. ROI = 10.52% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 1397.)

Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels. Reading through various previews Broncos have changed their coach but not much else after their torrid time last year. It is generally felt that Eels could be a top 4 side again, although they ended last season poorly. 
Plenty of thundery showers forecast for Brisbane early in the day but set to be a clear dry evening (8.05 pm KO Aussie time). Tempting to go with Eels -6.5 on the handicap but have had a crack at a buy of Eels' multi-points at 156 with Spreadex.

Hamburg v Holstein Kiel: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 5/4, 5 points on a penalty taken at 2/1 and 10 on a penalty scored at 13/5, all with Hills.
Mid 40s bookings spreads puts this bang in the prime 4-6 cards shown zone, ref has done so in 11 of his last 16 B2 games. Career wise he doesn't look to award a lot of penalties but most of them have come this season. It's as if someone's had a word with him or he suddenly felt as if he was missing out!

Could’ve done without the late red card but still a 17 point profit on that bet and 60 in total. I can’t tell you how relieved I was to see that Messi didn’t score the late goal! 
One of those players with an annoying habit of getting the full 90 minutes.

While I'm at it, let's sell Messi's goal minutes for 1 point at 43.
The sort of bet you tend to watch unfold from behind the sofa as he's capable of racking up a painful total but, in the long run, this market rewards sellers far more than bookings.

Barcelona v Sevilla: Sell bookings for 1 point at 62 (midweek cup game).

Interesting thread, good concept

Fair enough but there were only 3 outstanding bets so let's agree they all lost and call it -234 points and draw a line under it. But you can't run a thread and fail to keep a proper record of the bets in it and then just start again.
No, probably best to keep it in here rather than start another thread. Just do the necessary housekeeping.
To be honest, and without wishing to sound harsh, what I'd like you to do is set out the approach and stick to it for, say, at least 3 months. I wish you well but your track record doesn't bode well for this thread still to be running, on the recently stated terms, come the start of June. Hopefully a bit of blunt but fair criticism will spur you on to make me eat my words! 

All criticism is constructive. Thanks for being brutal, I'll try to make you lie so ?

Manchester City
It is surprising that they lose to Manchester United at 2-0 in last game, which ends their twenty-one-match winning streak. It will hurts their morale more or less. Luckily they are still in the top of League table with 9 points lead.  
 
Southampton
They have been winless for nine League games until they get a 2-0 clean sheet from Sheffield United in last game. And it is the first clean sheet they have got since January, which inspires them a lot.
 
Verdict:
There is a big gap between Manchester City and Southampton. Manchester City are the first in the table of the League while Southampton are the fourteenth. However, Manchester City are not in good condition. It is a good chance for Southampton to take points from Manchester City in the upcoming game.
 
Manchester City VS Southampton
Prediction: 1-1, 2-2

Manchester City vs Southampton
The main focus of the midweek action might well be on the Champions League but we have a key game in the Premier League coming up at 6pm GMT on Wednesday night at the Etihad Stadium when league leaders Manchester City look to get back to winning ways against a lowly Southampton side who recently ended a dire losing run to earn their first 3 points since 4th January. Who will win this one?
Manchester City might well be the champions-elect in all but name but their title charge suffered a surprising blow on the weekend when they lost 2-0 at home to local rivals Manchester United. That loss ended Pep Guardiola's side's unbeaten run that had stretched across 28 matches including 21 successive wins in all competitions. The Citizens remain top of the league table but their lead over 2nd placed United is now down to 11 points. Defeat here would give United the chance to reduce that deficit to single figures on the weekend so there is perhaps more pressure on this game than we might have anticipated. Guardiola has never lost back-to-back home league games in his entire managerial career so will be looking to avoid that here.
Southampton brought their appalling winless run to an end against relegation-bound Sheffield United away on the weekend with a 2-0 win at Bramall Lane. Ralph Hasenhuttl's side secured a first victory in the league in 10 games. The win has moved to the Saints to 14th in the table but they remain an uncomfortable 7 points above the relegation zone with teams behind them starting to pick up points. Bad news for the team is that top scorer Danny Ings looks set for another stint on the sidelines. It has also been just 1 win in their last 8 away league matches. An unwanted statistics is that Southampton have gone 22 away Premier League games played on a Wednesday with a win. The last time they tasted victory in the top flight on this day was back in April 1995 against Chelsea.
I have to say that if I was a Southampton fan I would be dreading this fixture. Even though the Saints got back to winning ways last weekend they are facing a wounded lion who will be keen to rectify the result from a few days ago. Manchester City are still firm favourites for the title and I'm expecting a big reaction from them in this game. I can see a home win with a clean sheet and it might even be worth sticking on a -1 or even -2 handicap.
Manchester City -1 @ 1.62 with SpreadEx
Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.70 with SBK

Fair enough but there were only 3 outstanding bets so let's agree they all lost and call it -234 points and draw a line under it. But you can't run a thread and fail to keep a proper record of the bets in it and then just start again.
No, probably best to keep it in here rather than start another thread. Just do the necessary housekeeping.
To be honest, and without wishing to sound harsh, what I'd like you to do is set out the approach and stick to it for, say, at least 3 months. I wish you well but your track record doesn't bode well for this thread still to be running, on the recently stated terms, come the start of June. Hopefully a bit of blunt but fair criticism will spur you on to make me eat my words! 

10 points on Ronaldo to have >2 shots on target at 3/1 Hills and sell his goal minutes for 1 point at 40.
As is often the case with Hills "flash odds" the original price of 6/4 is unappealing but the boosted price looks worth taking. He averages 2 shots on target per game so probably shouldn't be 3/1 to go one better in this one. Goal minutes generally a sell for me at that sort of price but Ronaldo is one of the select band of players who can only be watched from behind the sofa when opposing them! 

Probably a sign that there's not many games today and I've got too much time but I've found an assist bet I fancy for each team. PP not keen to offer me my desired stake in that market.
14 points on Morata (Juventus) at 11/4 PP
3 points on Corona (Porto) at 14/1 PP
20 points on Reus (Dortmund) at 19/5 Lads
8 points on Jordan (Sevilla) at 15/2 Hills

Dortmund v Sevilla: 25 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills
Juventus v Porto: 25 points on <40 booking points at 13/8 Sky Bet or PP
Very much led by the ref stats here.
Cakir in the former game fairly consistently hits the middle band whereas Kuipers in the latter has been tending towards unders for a while.

Probably a sign that there's not many games today and I've got too much time but I've found an assist bet I fancy for each team. PP not keen to offer me my desired stake in that market.
14 points on Morata (Juventus) at 11/4 PP
3 points on Corona (Porto) at 14/1 PP
20 points on Reus (Dortmund) at 19/5 Lads
8 points on Jordan (Sevilla) at 15/2 Hills

Can you at least update where things got to with the first batch of bets? It seems a bit disingenuous just to reset the clock in the same thread.

Hi , 
Finally I realise that being away from home for this business trip gives me even more time to devote myself to betting. So I'm not going to take up this thread again. 
A few changes : 
Starting bank: £500. 
Monthly deposit: £100 
Target December 2021: £2000 

? No more than 5% per bet 
➡️ No more than 1 bet in progress 
? Limit Loss: £90 per day  (Reset at 6:15 Pm) 
? Deposit limit: £100 per month

Start: £500
Deposit: March +£100 
? Bank: £600
 

We go again! 20 points on a Son assist at 14/5 Lads.

Yeah, the pair of them will have wreaked a bit of havoc in my player assist minutes sell thread but at least that’s only paper trades at the moment.

Kane seems to be back in shape too with assisting and scoring. 
On another note, though Manchester United can't win the title, I am super happy that they won today and ended Manchester City's 21 games winning streak! Whoohoooo????

I prefer it when he gets the early assist rather than waiting for the fourth goal! Returns the same but with a lot less anxiety!