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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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2.00 Southwell: Sophisticated Heir @ 13/2 Ladbrokes
Very consistent sort, particularly on the All-Weather. Follows up on excellent performances again and again. Probably on a high enough mark right now, but a return to Southwell may yield in a career best. He only run once on the fibresand, that was earlier this year, when he finished 3rd over a mile. That day he showed a clear likening for the surface, travelling smoothly from the front and seemingly making a decisive move over 3f out. However he faded badly in the final furlong, proving the trip was too far. Now he's back at the same venue, however over 6f - that should suit perfectly for a hot yard and a red hot jockey&trainer combo.
7.00 Chelmsford: Iberica Road @ 16/1 Betfred
Totally amiss lto but leaving that form aside he could be well handicapped off a lowered mark with a good 3lb claimer in the saddle. Won over course and distance back in September a maiden that worked out extremely well - now back here at Chelmsford over 10f he could potentially find back hi mojo. Blinkers might edge out the bit extra, given his trainer is not unknown if it comes to utilizing headgear in a successful way.
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2.00 Southwell: Sophisticated Heir @13/2 Ladbrokes
Very consistent sort, particularly on the All-Weather. Follows up on excellent performances again and again. Probably on a high enough mark right now, but a return to Southwell may yield in a career best. He only run once on the fibresand, that was earlier this year, when he finished 3rd over a mile. That day he showed a clear likening for the surface, travelling smoothly from the front and seemingly making a decisive move over 3f out. However he faded badly in the final furlong, proving the trip was too far. Now he's back at the same venue, however over 6f - that should suit perfectly for a hot yard and a red hot jockey&trainer combo.
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2.30 Lingfield: Epsom Day @ 11/1 Bet365
This lad looks primed for a huge run. Admittedly more often than not disappointing since getting off the mark in a maiden over CD pretty much a year ago, he finally seems to drop down to a manageable mark as well as down to class 6 for the very first time. It's seems significant that George Bakers is booked for the ride as Mongan & Baker enjoy a 33% strike rate together (36% at Lingfield!).
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2.30 Lingfield: Epsom Day @ 11/1 Bet365
This lad looks primed for a huge run. Admittedly more often than not disappointing since getting off the mark in a maiden over CD pretty much a year ago, he finally seems to drop down to a manageable mark as well as down to class 6 for the very first time. It's seems significant that George Bakers is booked for the ride as Mongan & Baker enjoy a 33% strike rate together (36% at Lingfield!).
5.20 Kempton: Dreaming Of Paris @ 15/8 Skybet
The filly was quite unlucky not to get off the mark on her debut at Lingfield, though if pushed harder in the closing stages she probably would have got there. It was a wee bit disappointing that she only managed a third place the next time, but not upped in trip to a very suitable 1m around Kempton she looks impossible to oppose, only the wide draw a slight negative.
6.50 Kempton: Paladin @ 8/1 Bet365
Paladin is on a hat-trick, albeit his last two wins came at Southwell in a lower class - nonetheless this looks a huge price, given it'll be only his second start over this trip, after he won over 12f a fortnight ago. It's obviously a different ground at Kempton, but he's already a course winner, though over shorter and his sire has a pretty fine record over CD with his offspring. So Paladin has a fair chance to overcome his new mark here.
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4.40 Kempton: Sir Jack @ 16/1 PP
A long way beaten in third lto at Southwell. Dropped another two pounds and upped further in trip - debatable whether that's the key to success for him but it could well be in combination with a first run on polytrack. His sire has a remarkable record at Kempton's All-Weather over 12f so this change might edge out some improvement, which is not out of the world for this four year old gelding who has only seven runs under his belt and tries a trip as far as this for the first time.
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1.50 Wolverhampton: Scotch Myst @ 7/1 Bet365
Still not too many miles on the clock and finally got off the mark in small Southwell Handicap making best use of a low weight. Drops in class here and is only 2lb higher for this success, while usually quite consistent on the All-Weather - now a three year old he might still improve a bit and that should give him a fair chance in this open race.
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6.15 Wolverhampton: Ice Royal @ 6/1 Coral
Ice Royal's record on the All-Weather is quite excellent. In the money eight out of eleven starts, he's also a course and distance winner who seems to be back in form as his comeback run at Chelsmford nine days ago proved. He kept going strongly in the finish despite not having a clear run at all - that form looks strong and rock solid too. He's top weight here, though the apprentice 5lb allowance is handy. Most interestingly this will be only his second start at Wolverhampton, which looks significant given he's a CD scorer.
8.45 Wolverhampton: Sentinel @ 9/2 Ladbrokes
Handicap debut for Sentinel after three more or less lacklustre maiden runs. It's probably fair to assume he didn't show his best there but could be primed for a big run off a potentially fair mark in a poor race with a step up to 7f almost sure to suit. Interesting little fact: his sire Sepoy, who has his first three year olds in the UK in 2017, has produced a tremendous record with his offspring in sprints on the All-Weather if those horses were not deemed total chanceless by the market.
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6.15 Wolverhampton: Ice Royal @ 6/1 Coral
Ice Royal's record on the All-Weather is quite excellent. In the money eight out of eleven starts, he's also a course and distance winner who seems to be back in form as his comeback run at Chelsmford nine days ago proved. He kept going strongly in the finish despite not having a clear run at all - that form looks strong and rock solid too. He's top weight here, though the apprentice 5lb allowance is handy. Most interestingly this will be only his second start at Wolverhampton, which looks significant given he's a CD scorer.
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2.30 Lingfield: Snow Squaw @ 10/3 Bet365
Quite interesting little maiden that appears very competitive - but at the price I take a chance on Snow Squaw. The Excelebration filly should improve bounds and leaps for the drop to 5f on the Lingfield All-Weather as - albeit a small sample size, her sire's offspring performed very well in similar conditions last season. Further improvement with age is possible and trainer David Elsworth has a good record in Lingfield maidens as well.
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7.00 Chelmsford: Iberica Road @ 9/1 Bet365
Totally amiss lto but leaving that form aside he could be well handicapped off a lowered mark with a good 3lb claimer in the saddle. Won over course and distance back in September a maiden that worked out extremely well - now back here at Chelmsford over 10f he could potentially find back hi mojo. Blinkers could edge out the bit extra, given his trainer is not unknown to utilised headgear successfully in the past.
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5.15 Kempton: Pepita @ 2/1 Bet365
This appears to be a 2-horse race. Dreaming Of Paris could easily have won on her debut but was rather educational ridden that at Lingfield. She's gonna win a race soon, though I struggle to see how she can be the favourite ahead of Richard Hannon's Pepita who run with plenty of credit in some hot little races over the summer while not quite getting off the mark. Her rating of 88 is totally warranted, given she was not far beaten in three runs behind subsequent pattern class winners and placed horses. She is a big, scopey filly who looks sure to get better as a three year old and if the lack of recent run is not a hindrance then she will be hard to beat, unless Dreaming Of Paris is a Group winner in the making,
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4.10 Wolverhampton: St. Patrick's Day @ 8/1 Bet365
Dropped markedly in his mark over the summer months and since down to a career lowest (running in handicaps) he's responded with two eye-catching performances at Southwell at Kempton. Seems to be a quirky character these days and clearly need things going his way to win, but dropping down to class six for the very first time should make life a bit easier again. Upped to 9.5f is interesting. Those type of trips seemed beyond him in the past but Fastnet Rock sons and daughters have a remarkable record over this CD so it's certainly worth a try. If that can irk out the slightest of improvement then he must go very close.
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3.00 Wolverhampton: Seven Clans @ 3/1 Bet365
First time blinkers seemed to help a good deal lto when he finished a fine runner-up of a lowered mark in a better race. Drop in class and step up in trip should suit perfectly. He also has a fine draw and master Kirby in the saddle - big chance to get a second career win under his belt finally, I reckon.
- Jimmy2shoes and DanV89
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2.55 Lingfield: Coral Sea @ 5/2 Bet365
Excelebration didn't exactly excel with his first crop of two year olds but one would expect them to be better with age, given he was at his best as an older miler too.
Interesting still, from 44 starts on the AW only one won - however at Lingfiel's polytrack he had 4 starters and all have been placed. Coincidence? His first three olds have been also placed to 50% in these early days of the new year - encouraging signs.
That's important for the chance of Coral Sea. The 6f maiden she's contesting looks incredibly poor. However she has clearly the best form and is already rated a fair 72. She is yet to win a race in five starts, but the step up to 6f will help today, so should the switch to Lingfield's polytrack, if those stats mentioned before, are to be believed. It won't take much more than running to in and around her given mark to win this race I feel.
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Tolworth Hurdle: Chalonnial @ 10/1 Bet365
Hard to know how good any of these is. Finian's Oscar looks a potential superstar and he might turn out to good for the rest here, but at this stage I find it rather easy to oppose him at short odds given the significant drop in trip, which we will have to find out whether it suits or not.
Capitaine looks the main rival, though will he be able to bring his best to heavy ground? Charlemar is an interesting alternative, but Chalonnial is a bit more exciting, given his lightly raced profile and a fine first win over hurdles in rain softened ground at Bangor lto.
Still very raw, and slightly edgy over the hurdles, he won comprehensively under hands and heels, though what it's worth against modest opposition - we find out today. At the given prices I find him the most interesting one. He's plenty of potential upside and could be well undervalued here.
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2.20 Lingfield: Captain Cat @ 12/1 Bet365
Has a bit to prove after some miserable performances for a new yard but those runs came in tough handicaps of high marks. Now back in Stakes company with level weights he may find things slightly easier over a course and distance he loves. Though it's a very competitive race, I feel he is not out of it, given he still performed quite well in these type of races last season on turf.
2.25 Sandown: Chalonnial @ 10/1 Bet365
hard to know how good any of these is. Finian's Oscar looks a potential superstar and he might turn out to good for the rest here, but at this stage I find it rather easy to oppose him at short odds given the significant drop in trip, which we will have to find out whether it suits or not.
Capitaine looks the main rival, though will he be able to bring his best to heavy ground? Charlemar is an interesting alternative, but Chalonnial is a bit more exciting, given his lightly raced profile and a fine first win over hurdles in rain softened ground at Bangor lto.
Still very raw, and slightly edgy over the hurdles, he won comprehensively under hands and heels, though what it's worth against modest opposition - we find out today. At the given prices I find him the most interesting one. He's plenty of potential upside and could be well undervalued here.
6.45 Wolverhampton: Dalavand @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
Second start for new yard and after an eye-catching pipe opener lto at Lingfield could be primed for huge run of manageable mark. Still a maiden but he has a bit of ability judged on a credible runner-up performance in a Wolverhampton claimer behind Yasir who went on to better things subsequently. The trip is a question mark, but he seemed speedy enough to cope with the pace of this trip range the other day at Lingfield, where he travelled well for a long time but didn't get a hard time when tiring in the end.
Trainer Mongan has a sensational record in these low grade handicaps when George Baker is in the saddle - the two team up here and that must surely be a pointer toward Dalavand's chances today.
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6.45 Wolverhampton: Dalavand @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
Second start for new yard and after an eye-catching pipe opener lto at Lingfield could be primed for huge run of manageable mark. Still a maiden but he has a bit of ability judged on a credible runner-up performance in a Wolverhampton claimer behind Yasir who went on to better things subsequently. The trip is a question mark, but he seemed speedy enough to cope with the pace of this trip range the other day at Lingfield, where he travelled well for a long time but didn't get a hard time when tiring in the end.
Trainer Mongan has a sensational record in these low grade handicaps when George Baker is in the saddle - the two team up here and that must surely be a pointer toward Dalavand's chances today.
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7.45 Wolverhampton: Heartstone @ 12/1 Bet365
First start for new yard and these fresh surroundings may help this still winless lad. He's not without hope though. Actually really well bred, he has not fulfilled his potential, nonetheless was placed off slightly higher marks including on the All-Weather in the past, he clearly did not get the run of the race at Chelmsford when last seen when rather well fancied in the betting.
Upped in trip again should suit, so should Wolverhampton. Interestingly he's by Fastnet Rock, a sire who does produce plenty of winners on the All-Weather and particularly at Wolverhampton, including this specialist 9.5f trip. Heartstone has the worst draw, but the field is smallish enough, so should not be a big issue.
The new yard has a good spell at the moment, so taking all into account, this here represents an ideal opportunity to finally get off the mark.
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20.15 Chelmsford: Strong Challenge @ 11/4 Sky
Interesting contender dropping in class and first time gelded. Has been ultra disappointing in a handful of starts since winning a maiden in summer 2016. Back after a break now, switched to the All-Weather in a lesser race. SBS has a tremendous record with horses switched to the All-Weather as fto geldings and generally does really well at Chelmsford - this lad could easily be a class above the rest of the rather ordinary field if the gelding op him.
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3.40 Southwell: Stag Party @ 10/1 Bet365
Disappointing in five career starts but showed some encouraging signs and can spring a surprise here I feel. Probably went too quick the last time at Southwell on his first start on the fibresand but clearly acted on it. Paid for early efforts in closing stages and dropped away badly. Shorter trip and first time visor fitted could help big time; a handy drop in the weights in combination with a seven pound claimer in the saddle means Stag Party could easily go close in a poor race.
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3.40 Southwell: Stag Party @ 10/1 Bet365
Disappointing in five career starts but showed some encouraging signs and can spring a surprise here I feel. Probably went too quick the last time at Southwell on his first start on the fibresand but clearly acted on it. Paid for early efforts in closing stages and dropped away badly. Shorter trip and first time visor fitted could help big time; a handy drop in the weights in combination with a seven pound claimer in the saddle means Stag Party could easily go close in a poor race.
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4.45 Wolverhampton: Dunquin @ 8/1 Bet365
Wide open race with no standout, so I take a chance on this rather long standing maiden. With a good draw over a trip that should suit perfect he has a good chance off his eased mark I feel. In four starts on the All-Weather he performed largely quite well and arguably his best performance came over CD of an eight pound higher mark. Trip should be key to his chance: it's only his third start over 9.5f at Wolverhampton, the two times before he ran with credit, and that is in line with his sire Cape Cross who has an outstanding record with his progeny in these conditions. Dunquin is not an overly confident selection, but has a fair chance to get finally off the mark today in my mind.
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4.45 Wolverhampton: Dunquin @ 8/1 Bet365
Wide open race with no standout, so I take a chance on this rather long standing maiden. With a good draw over a trip that should suit perfect he has a good chance off his eased mark I feel. In four starts on the All-Weather he performed largely quite well and arguably his best performance came over CD of an eight pound higher mark. Trip should be key to his chance: it's only his third start over 9.5f at Wolverhampton, the two times before he ran with credit, and that is in line with his sire Cape Cross who has an outstanding record with his progeny in these conditions. Dunquin is not an overly confident selection, but has a fair chance to get finally off the mark today in my mind.
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4.10 Newcastle: Letmestopyouthere @ 11/1 Bet365
Excusing the last below par effort over a trip beyond him, he should have a decent shot - certainly a better chance than 11/1 - judged on his penultimate run over 7f at Wolverhampton when half a lengths runner-up behind Dr Julius No. The two meet here again, with a two pound swing in the weights in favour of Letmestopyouthere. DJN was a convincing winner that day and might still have more to offer but that day at Wolverhampton Letmestopyouthere made a big move on the widest outside probably a bit too early while DJN got the run of the race. It's a competitive little race here but there is not as much between the favourite and my selection as the price suggest, I feel.
3.10 Newcastle: Fastnet Blast @ 15/8 Bet365
I believe the wrong horse is favourite in the market. Diamond Kut is the 'sexier' one given his few runs and eye-catching performance at Lingfield lto but he doesn't look like one who'll improve bounds and leaps for the drop to 10f. Fastnet Blast is the solid selection, despite still seeking a first success. But his recent runner-up performance in a class 5 Handicap sets the standard here. A repeat of that run will see him win this race.
- DanV89 and BillyHills
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Monthly Nap Comp - Friday 20th Jan
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
1.30 Lingfield: Roundabout Magic @ 13/2 Ladbrokes
The step up in trip in a slowly run race proved fatal lto when RM seemingly run his race early. Still plenty of positives to take away as he lead right into the final furlong and expectantly tired only then badly. That was a much better race than this here where he also was 2lb out off the handicap, also the form works out really well - he drops two classes now right into a low grade class 6 handicap plus is back down in trip which will suit as he was an impressive CD winner only two starts back. A handy 3lb apprentice allowance should ensure the colt must be a prime chance in this race.