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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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3.40 Wings of Desire @ 11/1 Coral
Drop in trip should suit, fast ground problem and may still have some improvement in him. WFA will help and I believe Postponed is very much beatable over this sort of trip.
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4.15 Thirsk: New Signal @ 5/1 Coral
I feel the two horses ahead of the market are very much beatable, New Signal though is a very interesting newcomer, cost a bit of money and David O'Meara has a good record with maidens here, can get them ready first time out too.
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2.55 Deauville: Prix Jacques Le Marois (Group 1)
What a race in prospect! Several classy milers go to post at Deauville this afternoon and that makes it hard to pick a winner.
2000 Guineas hero Galileo Gold is the 7/4 favourite and has the form in the book to have a big say once again, though the has been on the go for a while now and this might be one race too many.
He meets Godolphin’s Ribchester again, who was a strong finishing third, only a shoulder behind Galileo Gold, in the Sussex Stakes last month. Ribchester is rapidly improving and a first top level success looms large.
Last years winner Esoterique has had a quiet year so far, though a recent fourth in the Prix Rothschild promises an upward form curve.
Vadamos already scored twice in Group company this year and rates a big danger – whether he is quite up to Group 1 standard remains to be seen. However he beat Ervedeya on her seasonal debut back in May.
These two go head to head here today – Vadamos with better recent form. Ervedeya, a three times Group 1 winner, seemed to need the run on reappearance but was a surprising no-show in the Queen Anne Stakes. She has to be back to her best to feature today.
That says I keep faith with her. She’s a brilliant filly on her day and if she can improve from those last two runs she must have a proper chances of beating the boys here.
Selection: Ervedeya @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
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11.09 Arlington: Deauville @ 6/1 Ladbrokes
Deauville has to overcome a wide draw as he did in the Belmont Derby when he won in great style. Proved there the doesn’t lack early pace to drawn in 13 may not be a big issue. As a big, scopey three year old, he’ll make most of the weight allowance today and must have a top chance to go close.
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4.45 Wolverhampton: Coronation Day @ 3/1 Unibet
Fine winner of a Catterick maiden, disappointed subsequently on handicap debut but this is easier here in a lesser grade off a revised mark on her All-Weather debut which should suit perfectly.
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4.05 Curragh: Air Force Blue @ 11/8 Sky
Massive drop in class, ground sure to suit and looked much better than bare result suggested in the July Cup. Stands hands and shoulders above the rest of this field in terms of ability and if there is not an underlying issue with his breathing (I suspect it might well be, but we ultimataly find out today) then he winds this by a street,
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8.10 Ayr: Forefull @ 3/1 Betfred
Irish trainer Adrian Keatley is back at his happy hunting ground in Ayr, where he won 11 races with his last 27 starters. He brings winless filly Forecull over, however she ran with credit the last two times and off her new mark this looks a perfect opportunity to open her account.
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2.50 Wolverhampton: Tulip Dress @ 6/1 VC
Big chance for the only three year old in this race to add to his sole course and distance success. Trainer Anthony Carson does well in these type of races at the Wolverhampton Tapeta particularly this season and has found another excellent opportunity to score.
3.10 Brighton: Onehelluvatouch @ 9/1 Ladbrokes
Lightly raced three year old who caught the eye on his handicap debut at Lingfield. Overcame wide draw and made the pace, was halfway through taken on for the lead but hit the front again turning for home just to run out of steam toward the end. Better ground is likely to help here and the handicapper gives her a chance. A useful 3lb claimer is booked too. Trainer Philip Hide is very successful at Brighton, particularly with three years olds in Handicaps, so bringing this intriguing filly here looks significant.
4.40 Brighton: Port Lairge @12/1 Ladbrokes
Trainer John Gallagher does really well in Brighton Handicaps over the year and has Michael Murphy booked for the ride on four times course winner Port Lairge. Jockey and trainer have enjoyed a fruitful partnership in the last years during Murphy's time as an apprentice but there is no sign that this success will dry up any time soon. Port Lairge usually runs very well at Brighton, having been placed in half of all his runs over today's trip. Down to a workable mark, he is expected to run well.
6.40 Newmarket: Jupiter Light @ 5/2 Ladbrokes
Hot maiden but Gosden's colt stands out with Dettori booked. Well bred for this trip and expected to be ready for the job on hand right now. By Lonhro who was an excellent juvenile, out of Fantasia who was a pattern winner over 7f in her debut season - trainer Gosden often introduced successfully those types over the years.
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6.40 Newmarket: Jupiter Light @ 5/2 Ladbrokes
Hot maiden but Gosden's colt stands out with Dettori booked. Well bred for this trip and expected to be ready for the job on hand right now. By Lonhro who was an excellent juvenile, out of Fantasia who was a pattern winner over 7f in her debut season - trainer Gosden often introduced successfully those types over the years.
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7.30 Newcastle: Dream Team @ 20/1 Betfred
The odds-on favourite might be hard to beat but I take a chance on Michael Dods colt who did show little on his debut but now switches to the All-Weather which should very much suit on pedigree. Worth a chance today.
8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral
This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more. Burke/Vaughan enjoy quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.
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8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral
This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more. Burke/Vaughan enjoy quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.
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3.30 Bath: Forecaster: 11/8 Betfred
This looks seemingly a wide open race but closer inspection shows this is an excellent opportunity for 3yo Forecaster. The slight step up in trip should bring out further improvement after two subsequent placed efforts this season. First time cheeppieces can be a big help too. Michael Bell has a near 50% strike rate this year and consistently over time with his horses tried in this type of headgear. I suspect Forecaster will be able to find enough improvement to beat this very ordinary lot today.
4.00 Bath: Hope Is High @ 8/1 Coral
She improved dramatically from her maidens last month on her handicap debut at Yarmouth, though got a bit a rough ride. Once in the clear she ran on strongly to finish an unlikely looking runner-up. There is more to come and a 2lb hike in the mark isn't enough to stop her to go close. I believe the slower ground will her here. Jockey booking is interesting, as the Gordon/Berry combo has proved very successful this year, albeit the sample size is on the small side. Still, her 3lb allowance look significant given the 60% strike rate these two enjoy.
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7.10 Kempton: Curriculum @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
Very interesting contender for William Haggas who has a 42% strike rate this season in Kempton maiden races and a 70%+ place strike rate over the last five years here i nthis type of races - so one would assume Curriculum is reasonably fit going to post today. The gelding showed promise in soft conditions at Doncaster last year and is open to a significant amount of improvement over this longer trip.
8.20 Yarmouth: Fleeting Dream @ 2/1 Ladbrokes
This rather well bred three year old filly of Dream Ahead should be very hard to beat on her handicap debut, dropping down to five furlongs which is very likely to suit down to the grounds. Haggas seems to find always the right opportunities for this type of horse and while Fleeting Dream didn't show much in three maiden races, she showed plenty of speed the last time in a hot race. Her opening mark of 56 could be lenient.
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7.10 Kempton: Curriculum @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
Very interesting contender for William Haggas who has a 42% strike rate this season in Kempton maiden races and a 70%+ place strike rate over the last five years here i nthis type of races - so one would assume Curriculum is reasonably fit going to post today. The gelding showed promise in soft conditions at Doncaster last year and is open to a significant amount of improvement over this longer trip.
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7.25 Cork: Reckless Gold @ 7/1 Ladbrokes
Dermot Weld's horse is clearly open to plenty of improvement but way too short, given there is a proven pattern performer in Sruthan in the field. Though Joseph O'Brien's colt Reckless Gold makes most appeal price wise. Lightly raced and still extremely green and raw when winning a Curragh maiden in June on his seasonal reappearance, he's got scope for improvement too. Also his placed efforts in two maidens before looks strong form, particularly his runner-up effort having subsequent Irish Derby third Stellar Mass behind him.
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4.00 Kempton: Soul Intent @ 5/1 Ladbrokes
Three times winner on the All-Weather up to 12f - Returned last month from lay-off and clearly benefited from pipe opener when fine runner-up at Doncaster. Stays a bit further and should like the likely pace in this race. Definite chance off current mark in open race.
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3.50 Chester: Heir To A Throne @ 20/1 Ladbrokes
Got off the mark this year at the sixth attempt over course and distance, couldn't quite follow up in softish conditions lto but deserves another crack here back at Chester with bettr ground sure to suit.
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3.10 Goodwood: Beautiful Romance @ 18/1 VC
Minding might be vulnerable on the fast ground so I take a chance with the only four year old in the contest, Beautiful Romance. Disappointing in the Hardwick though there were excuses and the drop in trip might suit today, the better going will help definitely. Still open to improvement and could give Minding something to think about.
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3.30 Ascot: Raaqy @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Better ground in combination with a first time hood could make all the difference for this often keen son of Dubawi. Has a fine pedigree which should mean he's got every chance to perform well over a mile here and showed promise as a juvenile.
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8.40 Nottingham: Magnolia Ridge @ 11/2 SkyBet
Never won on the flat but won two of last three starts over hurdles and potentially on very handy mark given the fast ground is likely to suit. In a race without a standout, he's got a good chance to finally get of the mark on the flat.
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7.15 Windsor: Parkhour @ 9/1 Bet365
Won two 6f races on the all-Weather before changing yards. Now in hands of Marco Botti, seemingly needed first run after lay-off for the new trainer but gelded in the meantime and tries blinkers for the first time. Usually Botti has good hands for horses in need of this treatment. Quick ground should suit and improvement expected although the current mark looks stiff.
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6.40 Wolverhampton: Miss Marina Bay @ 8/1 VC
Still a maiden and disappointing in basically every start, but blinkers fitted and dropped in the mark - first time AW could suit too and some improvement might already be enough to see her go close here.
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3.15 Ascot: Blond Me @ 33/1 - EW - Bet365
The filly looks overpriced if you forgive her a below par run on unsuitable soft ground the last time. She clearly trained on as she proved on her seasonal reappearance when she won a Listed contest at Goodwood in great style. The fast ground is very much in his favour and her juvenile form gives her a prime chance to be in the shake-up.
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5.15 Ascot: Vincent's Forever @ 9/1 Will Hill
Looked exciting when winning a maiden last October, out of sorts on debut but should come for the run and has been gelded in the meantime. Also steps up in trip on better ground which should suit.
Monthly Nap Competition - Thursday 18th Aug 2016
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
6.10 Hamilton: Ss Vega @ 4/1 Skybet
Will encounter fast ground for the first time in career and should improve for it. Trainer with quite a bit of success in these type of races here at Hamilton in the past as well.