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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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12.40 Southwell: Treaty of Rome @ 4/1 Bet365
Looks poised for big run, second start after lay off since laving AOB in Ireland where he did well in a Dundalk maiden. LTO first time at Southwell he travelled like a dream taking well to the surface but just run out off gas at the end. Drop to 6f should suit well and on handicap bow a mark of 60 seems reasonable.
1.40 Southwell: Socialities Red @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Hasn't won in over a year but slowly drops to a fairer mark. Ran well on her sole Southwell start in the past. Has on his back KT O'Neill, one of the best 5f jockeys at this course, which should for something. Could be ready to strike after a break with this in mind and was fancied to run well when last seen either.
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12.40 Southwell: Treaty of Rome @ 4/1 Bet365
Looks poised for big run, second start after lay off since laving AOB in Ireland where he did well in a Dundalk maiden. LTO first time at Southwell he travelled like a dream taking well to the surface but just run out off gas at the end. Drop to 6f should suit well and on handicap bow a mark of 60 seems reasonable.
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7.15 Wolverhampton: Dubai One @ 15/2 VC
Two wins and two seconds from four starts on the All-Weather - Dubai One clearly excels on synthetics and there is no reason that there isn't still a bit more to come. Five furlongs around Wolverhampton should suit down to the grounds and the favourite doesn't handle the conditions it's a wide open contest.
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3.00 Haydock: Seeyouatmidnight @ 11/2 Bet365
Looks still overlooked in the market against the "big two" albeit some money is coming - won well on his reappearance suggesting there is much more to come and has course as well as distance form, with the rain heavy ground sure to suit. If Cue Card is slowing down due to ageing and Coneygree not yet fully fit, he could be the laughing third.
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00.35 Santa Anita: Arrogate @ 3/1 Ladbrokes
Super impressive winning the Trevers Stakes. Should be able to put it up to California Chrome and with handy weight allowance might be able to beat the big horse.
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5.00 Newcastle: Almutamarred @ 10/3 WH
Won really well over course and distance back in August off a 4lb lower mark. Didn't fire on turf subsequently but back on the All-Weather should help.
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4.05 Catterick: Machine Learning @ 5/1 Bet365
Fine winner on penultimate start, probably should have won under penalty the next time. Still on a fair mark and now heading to Catterick for the first time. Michael Bell has an excellent record here, even better with those he brings here for their first run at this odd track. Fine Apprentice is booked, trainer and jockey enjoy some success together - from bottom weight Machine Learning must have a big chance.
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2.00 Ascot: Don't Touch E/W @ 66/1 Coral
Wide open race and Don't Touch is surely not a prime chance in this competitive race, given he has yet to prove his class beyond listed level. Nonetheless he's a speedy sort with an impressive record over six furlongs and if the first time blinkers can edge out a bit of improvement he is in with a shout to content for the placing at least.
2.35 Ascot: Zhukova @ 5/1 Bet365
Potentially a minefield this race, but Dermot Weld's filly has the right profile to win this. Still not too many miles on the clock, lightly raced this year while unbeaten in 2016, she usually is not too far off the pace which I feel could be crucial today.
3.10 Ascot: Hit It A Bomb @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Hasn't hit the heights of last season in two starts since his return, but may improve from those two runs and the light season could be an advantage today if he is still as good as he promised to be as a juvenile. Conditions should suit him. Of course he has a bit to find on form and the ratings with the likes of Minding and Galileo Gold. However one shouldn't forget they have had a hard and long season that started quite early as well, so they may well run not to their true form today. A bit improvement from HIAB and a bit regression from the key contenders, and the 25/1 looks a huge price.
3.45 Ascot: Jack Hobbs @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
It's probably a stupid bet trusting a horse that has been pulled up when last seen over half a year ago, running after a long lay-off in a race as deep as this is. But regardless, I feel the price is too big. In theory Jack Hobbs should be getting better the older he gets. Now more mature after a summer off, John Gosden can get his horses ready first time out and Jack Hobbs won FTO in the past - I like the fact that he should be in the right spot when they turning for home, given he is usually right up with the pace, so does not need in-running luck, which will inevitably play a role today for some of the more fancied runners.
4.05 Catterick: Machine Learning @ 5/1 Catterick
Fine winner on penultimate start, probably should have won under penalty the next time. Still on a fair mark and now heading to Catterick for the first time. Michael Bell has an excellent record here, even better with those he brings here for their first run at this odd track. Fine Apprentice is booked, trainer and jockey enjoy some success together - from bottom weight Machine Learning must have a big chance.
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5.55 Chelmsford: Red Stripes @ 11/1 Coral
Down to a very handy mark back over course and distance he loves. Can race of feather weight with further apprentice allowance taken into account and if he find back to some sort of form he should be in with a big shout today.
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4.50 Goodwood: Missed Call @ 20/1 Bet365
This looks a wide open race with not too much 12f form on offer. However the mare Missed Call is overlooked at big odds given her record over the trip. She hasn't been at her best lately but drops to a handy mark and should be okay with the conditions. It should be red hot pace which suits her to the grounds.
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21.10 Newcastle: Emjayem @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Back from a break and done not too badly fresh in the past. Has won over five furlongs on the All-Weather in the past and should enjoy Newcastle's straight track. His penultimate run at Goodwood when fine runner-up gives him a big chance in this field.
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7.50 Kempton: Amazour @ 20/1 Bet365
Taneen looks way to short in the betting given it's hard to know what to expect from him after a lay-off Some others at the top end of the market aren't necessarily trusted either. Amazour isn't rock solid either but a big price given he won a hot class 2 Handicap at Newcastle three starts back. Return to the AW should help his cause given he has been placed in all his three starts on sand. Slight worries about his hold-up style, he could easily get going when all is already done and dusted.
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8.40 Kempton: Diamond Geyser @ 10/3 Ladbrokes
almost half the field comes back from the lay-off, while only very few have actually ever done anything of substance over the 12f trip - so there are some unknown quantities here, however Artful Rogue and Diamond Geyser seem the two to concentrate on. Headgear bight bring out further improvement for the Mrs Perrett horse but at the bigger price I prefer Cumani's Diamond Geyser. He has to bounce back after a couple of underwhelming performances but back on the AW should help and his trainer has an excellent record in these type of races over the years and he's getting a handy WFA allowance.
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3.05 Chantilly: Harzand @ 8/1 Betfred
8/1 for Harzand is a criminal price. On the back of one poor performance, where we know there are valid excuses, bookies are happy to lay him. I imagine the return to 12f will be very much to his liking, the ground isn’t a problem, he’s a good draw and is a three year old with a handy weight for age allowance – if Smullen doesn’t drop too far off the pace, which I see as a slight danger to happen – Harzand will be a tough challenger in the finish.
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3.15 Epsom: Power Game @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
Still relativity unexposed but multiple winner on the All-Weather, tries turf for the first time. Should act well on pedigree and will strip fitter after his recent comeback run.
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4.10 Cambridgeshire: First Sitting @ 40/1 WH - EW 6 places
First Sitting didn't stop progressing as a five year old, won two handicaps this year and was Listed placed in France when last seen. A hike in the mark is a new career highest ask but he may have still more to offer on ground sure to suit with a jockey in the saddle he's won with before.
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3.30 Newmarket: Intelligence Cross @ 9/1 WH
The selection couldn't beat Mehmas on two occasions this year but looks a big, scopey sort - albeit not flashy - and impressed at the Curragh last month. He's an improving type and might be able to turn the table with Mehmas now. Whether that is good enough to beat the hot favourite is different question, but at the given price one question I'm happy to get answered
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1.50 Newmarket: Elas Ruby @ 8/1 WH
Godolphin's Blue Illusion is an interesting newcomer but John Gosden's Elas Ruby is better value given race experience and a sure improvement to come over the new trip on fast ground likely to suit down to the grounds.
2.55 Newmarket: Queen Kindly @ 10/3 Ladbrokes
You got to listen when a wide man like Richard Fahey says this girl is the best he has ever trained. She has been improving all year long and was impressive when landing the Lowther Stakes. She can take a next step and may outstay speedball Lady Aurelia when they hit the hill up to the finish line.
3.30 Middle Park Stakes: Intelligence Cross @ 9/1 WH
The selection couldn't beat Mehmas on two occasions this year but looks a big, scopey sort - albeit not flashy - and impressed at the Curragh last month. He's an improving type and might be able to turn the table with Mehmas now. Whether that is good enough to beat the hot favourite is different question, but at the given price one question I'm happy to get answered.
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8.30 Dundalk: Ol Man River @ 3/1 Ladbrokes
Now in care of young Joseph back after a long lay off. Hard to know what to expect, but he drops into a race where should be hands and shoulders above the rest if half fit and if the change of scenery has done him good. Tongue tie applied again is interesting - I always felt this horse has a breathing issue - TT can help and he finished 3rd in Group 2 company when running the first and only time with it last season, which was his best performance since his juvenile season.
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9.10 Kempton: Keiba @ 6/1 Ladbrokes
Keiba took advantage of career lowest mark last time over course and distance when tried in cheekpieces for the first time. It was a promising performance from a wide draw when finishing third that day - off the same mark today, from a better draw with blinkers fitted he might be better positioned this time and should be up to win this race.
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4.30 Haydock: Janes Memory EW @ 100/1 Sky
Probably too big an ask but work a try at this price. She has winning form on soft ground as well as at Haydock and might surprise.
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7.10 Chelmsford: Bahamian Boy @ 9/1 VC
Trainer has excellent record at Chelmsford in these low grade Handicaps. Bahamian Bounty has to show about more to feature but first time blinkers should help given trainer has proven successful applying headgear first time in the past.
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7.50 Wolverhampton: Fastnet Blast @ 11/2 Skybet
Should appreciate this surface given his sire boosts very impressive stats for his offspring over this trip at Wolverhampton. Dropped 2lb as well and trainer goes well here too.
Monthly Nap Competition - Tuesday 3rd Jan 2017
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
4.10 Newcastle: Letmestopyouthere @ 11/1 Bet365
Excusing the last below par effort over a trip beyond him, he should have a decent shot - certainly a better chance than 11/1 - judged on his penultimate run over 7f at Wolverhampton when half a lengths runner-up behind Dr Julius No. The two meet here again, with a two pound swing in the weights in favour of Letmestopyouthere. DJN was a convincing winner that day and might still have more to offer but that day at Wolverhampton Letmestopyouthere made a big move on the widest outside probably a bit too early while DJN got the run of the race. It's a competitive little race here but there is not as much between the favourite and my selection as the price suggest, I feel.