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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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Thank you sir, I did back them indeed - thankfully. Well done yourself; I believe you had a smashing day too!
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1.30 Ch: River Wylde
2.10 Ch: Altior
2.50 Ch: Singlefarmpayment
3.30 Ch: Petit Mouchoir
4.10 Ch: Apples Jade
4.50 Ch: Tiger Roll
5.30 Ch: Tully East -
1.30: Neptune Novices’ Hurdle
Neon Wolf could be the real deal. There weren’t many more impressive novices this season. However he’s by no means a banker. Given his relative inexperience and rawness I’m happy to let him run without my money.
Plenty others are interesting – though most of them are unlikely to run. That makes this race hard to evaluate.
If she runs, then Let’s Dance is my pick. With a handy weight allowance, strong form and experience, she ticks plenty of the right boxes for me. I love her improvement this season and particularly her last Grade 2 success at Leopardstown.
She is versatile, ground independent and has already won over 2m 4f – the right traits for a big performance. With NRNB I select her – if she does not run I watch the race in the hope of a big performance by Neon Wolf.
Selection:
10pts Win – Let’s Dance @ 7/1 VC (NRNB)……..
2.10: RSA Novices’ Chase
With plenty of talented horses likely to pull out before Wednesday, the RSA could be left with a slightly lukewarm lineup. That doesn’t mean it won’t be an intriguing contest, but it certainly does not shape as one of the stronger renewals.
Favourite Might Bight has been on the drift for a while and there is the question whether Cheltenham is his track. We’ll find out soon. His Kempton performance (until the fall) was huge, so one should not underestimate him and his price goes in a direction where it becomes tempting.
Alpha Des Obeaux’s bleeding issues when last seen put me off, whereas I feel Royal Vacation is a very decent each-way shout here. But the one I’m most excited about is recent 32 lengths Navan winner Acapella Bourgeois.
Yes, you can argue he got it easy in front that day, the other jockeys were caught napping and the heavy ground had a role to play too. But the way he jumped, the way he pricked ears while jumping the final fence clear by a mile, still only in second gear – you got to be impressed with this still generally lightly raced seven year old.
The faster ground is a question mark, though he was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles on yielding ground. I feel he’s the right type for this race, one who’ll be suited to Cheltenham and its demands, one who won’t go away when it starts to hurt and one who’ll be able to pull out more when the others stop.
Selection:
10pts Win – Acapella Bourgeois @ 7/1 Skybet……..
2.50: Coral Cup
Another of those races where you can’t be certain at all who’s going to line up on Wednesday afternoon. Though fairly certain is the start of Peregrine Run.
A really nice progressive sort who was denied a five-timer back in January at Warwick probably by unsuited soft ground. With decent ground looming and course and distance form in the book, this race should suit down to the grounds with a fair handicap mark to leverage.
Dan Skelton’s Mister Miyagi is another one i do like quite a bit. Finished sixth behind Altior in last years Supreme, not far behind Tombstone, who incidentally is favourite for the Coral.
Things did not go right for MM afterwards, he needed a wind op suffering from the same issues Cue Card did before his legendary revival. Skelton feels he’s a big runner and he’s probably right: if the wind op helped to solve the underlying issue then he’s got a huge chance to to be in the shake-up in this compressed handicap.
Highly speculative my third selection: Bleu Et Rouge goes back hurdling. He never seemed happy over fences, his jumping letting him down badly, though his debut run was quite promising, actually.
The smaller obstacles (either here or in the county hurdle) will be a big help nonetheless, he was a Grade 1 winning novice who could easily be well handicapped if the spark is back. With NRNB insurance, it’s worth a risk at a value price in case he lines up in the Coral.
Selection:
5pts win – Peregrine Run @ 10/1 Bet365
5pts win – Bleu Et Rouge @ 16/1 Bet365
5pts win – Mister Miyagi @ 20/1 Skybet……..
3.30: Queen Mother Champion Chase
An empty netter from five yards out for Douvan this is, he won’t be beaten. So I focus more on what’s finishing behind him in second and third. Fox Norton, God’s Own and Special Tiara is the trio most likely to fill places left on the podium – all three rated within a pound, in and around with the same sort of chance.
Though the betting does not reflect this. That says I get why the not fully exposed seven year old Fox Norton is slightly better fancied, nonetheless I think 16/1 for Special Tiara with 1/4 of the odds looks big in comparison.
The win part of the bet hinges on luck or misfortune of Douvan, but the place part looks to have a better chance than the odds suggest in my mind. He mightn’t be quite as good as he used to be, but fact remains that he finished 3rd in the Champion Chase last year and won this season the one time he encountered the ground he needs.
with decent ground likely here on Wednesday, Special Tiara should prove hard to pass for most rivals in this race, bar the near unbeatable favourite.
Selection:
5pts E/W – Special Tiara @ 16/1 Bet365……
4.10: Cross-Country Chase
Any Currency won this race last year but lost it in the courtroom afterwards. Nonetheless he is a Cheltenham specialist and even more specialist for this specific race. He seems to find his form again and should be ripped in order to put up a huge performance once more.
Now 14 years of age, there will come a point where younger legs do get the better of him him but the Cross Country is a race for specialists. A specialist Any Currency is and therefore it looks near impossible to keep this guy out of the money.
Selection:
5pts E/W – Any Currency @ 14/1 PP…….
4.50: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
A big field and one where you wouldn’t like to be on a short price but the word is out that Divin Bere is the one to beat and well fancied by the stable. He could have gone down the Triumph route but he’s here in a handicap off a reasonable mark.
In fact it’s probably closer to the truth that the Henderson inmate is well handicapped taken his sole run in Britain into account.
He is a French recruit who made a big impression on his UK debut at Huntingdon with form that works out incredibly well through the runner-up. Connections didn’t leave a stone untouched it seems as Divin Bere also got a wind op since then.
Selection:
10pts win – Divin Bere @ 6/1 Skybet……
5.30: Champion Bumper
Exciting favourite Carter Mckay might be too good but at bigger prices I fancy two other Irish horses to outrun their price tag: that is Robbie McNamara’s Quick Grabim. A visually super impressive winner of a bumper at the Leopardstown Christmas festival, he was disappointing the next time at Exter but probably had excuses that day.
Better ground should suit and it’s telling that Noel Fehily was extremely keen to get the leg up on this boy.
Davy Russell will ride Joseph O’Brien’s interesting West Coast Time. Impressive on debut, he was hampered in the mud when runner-up – yet convincingly beaten – behind Carter Kckay. Drop back to two miles on decent ground could easily bring out further improvement though.
Selection:
5pts win – Quick Grabim @ 25/1 WH
5pts win – West Coast Time @ 16/1 Skybet- Jimmy2shoes, Apple_Pie and gbettle
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Backed a couple in advance, though prices may have changed to some extend in the meantime:
1.30: Supreme Novices Hurdle
It all kicks off with the Supreme – a surprisingly wide open affair this year. No outstanding star in the line up to get us off to a flyer. Though Willie Mullins saddles the favourite yet again.
However I’m not yet convinced by Melon – though he might well be the real deal – his lack of experience is a big concern, particularly at a short enough price in a race with plenty of substance and alternatives.
Experience and a bit of stamina usually counts for allot in the Supreme and with that in mind two bigger prices come on to my radar:
There is Nicky Henderson’s progressive River Wylde on one hand. An impressive Grade 2 winner at Kempton in February, he’s shaping like an ideal candidate with the likely decent ground sure to suit.
A point to point recruit, he’s been improving all the time since moving to the Henderson yard, resulting in three wins on the bounce, culminating in a slick performance in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.
He beat Elgin that day, mainly because he jumped better. Nonetheless the runner-up is the other one I like here. Not as slick, bit more workmanlike, but a fine second behind classy Neon Wolf earlier this year, he’s also not stopping to improve with each run and the Alan King yard is quite upbeat about a big run.
Both should be able to outran their price if they are able to keep up with the frantic pace that’s sure to bet set early on.
Selection:
5pts win – River Wylde @ 10/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Elgin @ 25/1 Bet365......
4.10: Mares’ Hurdle
Surprise, surprise! Both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag locking horns in the Mares’ – who’d thought that?! The latter one sets the standard as the convincing winner of this race last year, but she was clearly not right when last seen at Doncaster and whether she is quite 100% after the virus infection is up for debate.
Fair to say that on all evidence plus factoring in potential improvement Limini is the correct favourite. She could have run in the Champion Hurdle and would have not looked out of place there. So she has a serious chance in this race. But I wonder: should she be three or four times the price of Apples Jade? I argue: absolutely not.
The two met last month and Limini won well, but one could argue Apples Jade was back from a small break and will come on for run – probably more so than Limini will. Gorden Elliott’s mare remains to be lightly raced with further progress far from impossible
It’s also been noted by Wullie Mullins that Limini is quite hard on herself, meaning each race takes its toll on her. I wonder whether a big performance as the one she produced only three weeks ago might haven take more out of her than ideal?
All in all at the given prices I do prefer Gordon Elliott’s progressive five year old.
Selection:
5pts win – Apples Jade @ 5/1 PP……..
4.50: National Hunt Novices’ Chase
Every man and his dog seems to be on A Genie In Abottle and that makes perfect sense. But there is no juice left in the price, so looking elsewhere is worthwhile.
Highly speculative and risky, still I like to put forward the case of Tiger Roll. A shaky character, who clearly didn’t quite life up to the promise of his early career. But on his day he can be a classy individual and least we forget he used to be a Triumph Hurdle winner back in the day. Now lining up in a 4 miler seems odd and he may well be found out for stamina, if not for class.
His rating entitles him to have a decent shout, though, and he put a string of decent performances together over the last six races, including a success in the Munster National.
This is a different kettle of fish, but he goes well on decent ground and performed admirably off a break in the past, so it would not surprise me if he outruns his price tag.
Selection:
5pts win – Tiger Roll @ 20/1 Bet365……..
5.30: Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase
Big field and you can easily make a case for at least a handful of these. But two stand out in terms of potentially being well handicapped: Itsafreebee is an obvious one. Third in the Neptune behind Yorkhill last year, he’s been not reaching those heights over fences yet but a handy drop in the weights and potentially decent ground should ensure he has a huge chance.
From Ireland I like the chance of Tully East. I feel he he hasn’t been seen to his best in his last two starts, probably with this race and his handicap mark in mind. He won over fences back in December and ran really well in the Martin Pipe last year.
Selection:
5pts win – Itsafreebee @ 12/1 Paddy Power
5pts win – Tully East @ 20/1 Bet365 -
3.30 Cheltenham: Champion Hurdle
No superstar of the previous years in the race this time around, but that doesn’t make it any less exciting. In fact this incredibly open renewal of the Champion Hurdle has added intrigue given the entry of Buveur D’air who quickly established himself as a leading chance in recent weeks.
Favouite Yanworth has done little wrong and it’s fair to assume there is more to come. The likely frantic pace will suit him and he is a fair favourite, the one they all have to beat. Yet I’m far from excited and am not sure if he is really that much better than some others in this field.
I want to see that he’s a Champion Hurdle horse, given connections also had a good look at the Stayers Hurdle because Yanworth surely is not the most explosive hurdler the world has seen.
The chances of Buveur D’air may hinge on the weather. Rain, to be precise, is needed. If it would arrive he may even go off as favourite, I imagine.Whether that is warranted remains to be seen, but it’s fair to say he’s more home over hurdles than fences and connections did well to change the plan.
Nonetheless, the seemingly underappreciated horse is Petit Mouchoir. Admittedly, I’m not a huge fan of the Gigginstown inmate and the critics are right in saying we don’t know what his form is worth. He seems a solid, but not spectacular individual, one who hasn’t beaten anything of note, yet.
On the positive side: Petit Mouchoir seems a better horse this season. He stepped up his game, has two Grade 1’s to his name and in the end he can’t do much more than beating what#s put in front of him. And let’s not forget he was only narrowly beaten by Buveur D’air at Aintree last season. Both horses may have improved since then, but given all we know, there is likely to be very little between the two.
That means 9/1 seems way overpriced. The same could be argued for progressive Brian Power to some extend, while Moon Racer is the dark horse. All in all an intriguing contest, but at given prices and form it’s hard to argue that Petit Mouchoir is not worth a punt in my mind.
Petit Mouchoir @ 9/1 Bet365
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3.30 Cheltenham: Champion Hurdle
No superstar of the previous years in the race this time around, but that doesn’t make it any less exciting. In fact this incredibly open renewal of the Champion Hurdle has added intrigue given the entry of Buveur D’air who quickly established himself as a leading chance in recent weeks.
Favouite Yanworth has done little wrong and it’s fair to assume there is more to come. The likely frantic pace will suit him and he is a fair favourite, the one they all have to beat. Yet I’m far from excited and am not sure if he is really that much better than some others in this field.
I want to see that he’s a Champion Hurdle horse, given connections also had a good look at the Stayers Hurdle because Yanworth surely is not the most explosive hurdler the world has seen.
The chances of Buveur D’air may hinge on the weather. Rain, to be precise, is needed. If it would arrive he may even go off as favourite, I imagine.Whether that is warranted remains to be seen, but it’s fair to say he’s more home over hurdles than fences and connections did well to change the plan.
Nonetheless, the seemingly underappreciated horse is Petit Mouchoir. Admittedly, I’m not a huge fan of the Gigginstown inmate and the critics are right in saying we don’t know what his form is worth. He seems a solid, but not spectacular individual, one who hasn’t beaten anything of note, yet.
On the positive side: Petit Mouchoir seems a better horse this season. He stepped up his game, has two Grade 1’s to his name and in the end he can’t do much more than beating what#s put in front of him. And let’s not forget he was only narrowly beaten by Buveur D’air at Aintree last season. Both horses may have improved since then, but given all we know, there is likely to be very little between the two.
That means 9/1 seems way overpriced. The same could be argued for progressive Brian Power to some extend, while Moon Racer is the dark horse. All in all an intriguing contest, but at given prices and form it’s hard to argue that Petit Mouchoir is not worth a punt in my mind.
Petit Mouchoir @ 9/1 Bet365
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2.00 Lingfield: Roys Legacy @ 13/2 Will Hill
Is in good form lately though performs still below his last winning mark. I feel a win is just around the corner of a mark of 54 with fine 5lb claimer Charlie Bennett in the saddle. Slight worry is his draw and likely competition for the lead but he should be in the shake-up nonetheless with a slightly better chance to get his head in front than the 13/2 suggests in this winnable race.
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3.40 Lingfield: Suqoor @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
Back to form lto here at Lingfield over shorter. Return to 7f sure to suit and his best performances came here at Lingfield. De Sousa in the saddle is a big plus and with the two older rivals better preferred in the market to some extend vulnerable in my mind he can still improve a bit.
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2.00 Lingfield: Annie Salts @ 7/1 Ladbrokes
Horsei s in red hot form, won lto, though this represents a step up in class and a new mark. But she might still be able to do a bit better over a course and distance that should suit with a top jockey in the saddle.
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3.15 Lingfield: Pinzolo @ 10/1 Coral
With Mutakayyef out this race is wide open. I feel Pinzolo has the right profile to land this race, though it is a step up in class form him. However he is in excellent form, goes well at Lingfield, has the advantage of going from the front but also stays further. He'll make sure this is a stamina test to found out those who have some doubts and he might be the one who has still a bit more to give in the closing stages when it really matters.
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2.20 Southwell: Rightway @ 6/1 PP
Tackles fibresand for the first time and trip is questionable, taking a huge step up here. However encouraging second run after break over a mile at Kempton lto and down to career lowest mark. The sire's offspring performs incredibly well in these type of races here at Southwell, and even more so over this trip. If stamina holds out in wide open race where any horse had questions to answer he can win with Luke Morris in the saddle.
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3.20 Wolverhampton: Dandy Flame @ 10/11 PP
Won two on the trot and judged on his handicap win over 7f at the venue two starts back he should be way too good for this lot, despite the drop in trip. He won over 5f here in the past so the trip really looks no problem. Kirby in the saddle should make this a penalty kick.
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2.00 Southwell: Pearl Nation @ 7/4 Skybet
Tricky contest but it is probably fair to say that top rated Retrieve is at this stage of his career nowhere near a mark of 105 and after a long lay-off is hard to fancy. Pearl Nation is back from a break too but if anywhere close to peak fitness must be hard to beat in this. Last season was disappointing but his form suggests he is still a horse in the low 90's of the handicap ratings. That's enough to beat this lot given he enjoys this course and trip and goes against lesser rivals than he did in all his last races.
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2.00 Leopardstown: Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)
One of the main contenders is out with Monalee and that makes it a much easier task for the exciting Willie Mullins mare Let's Dance. She is a second season novice who was already promising in her first year over hurdles but she appears to have improved significantly over the summer.
She landed a listed price at Punchestown on her seasonal reappearance but looked even sharper when stepped up to 2m 4f at Leopardstown over Christmas when she bolted up in a Grade 3.
She is a slick jumper with gears who's an incredibly exciting prospect and should have no problems to cope with the good ground here today. She takes the world of beating in my book.
Stable mate Kemboy can't be discounted. He was a fine winner on debut and has more to offer with the experience under his belt. Noel Meade's Joey Sasa was an impressive winner of a maiden hurdle here at Leopardstown over Christmas. He enjoys decent ground but has to prove he wants the trip.
Selection: Let's Dance @ 5/4 Skybet
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2.30 Leopardstown: Arkle Novice Chase (G1)
I totally get why Identity Thief is the "hype horse" here and no doubt his record makes for impressive reading. I also wouldn't read too much into his last run when pulled up. Nonetheless it is a slight concern, so is the good ground today. I feel he is best suited so rain softened underfoot conditions but then he might easily stuff my mouth if he bolts up today.
Anyway, the Arkle is quite an open and intriguing race and the slight concerns over the favourite do bring the other three rivals right into the game.
De Bromehead's nine year old Some Plan is two from three over fences and has only 2lb to find on the ratings and the one race he didn't win he fell and we never know how close he would have gone. Still early days in his chasing career but he already looks a better chaser than hurdler and no doubt there's more improvement likely to come.
The grey Blue Et Rouge is the youngest challenger in the race and looks to have plenty of ability. A winner of a solid Beginners Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, he left a lasting impression on me. Truth told his jumping wasn't the best that day, though he was badly hampered two out by a faller and it was impressive how quickly he made up lost ground to jump the final fence on par eventually. Once clearing the last he produced a fine turn of foot to win with plenty in hand.
Willie Mullins also saddles nine year old Royal Cavalier. A solid sort in his own right and a good jumper, but he has a bit to find with his three rivals.
At given prices I do fancy Blue Et Rouge to be thereabouts in the finish. The drop in trip doesn't concern me personally, given he showed plenty of pace the other day. He acts on track anf ground quite clearly and should have learned plenty from his first outing over fences. He looks an incredibly exciting prospect.
Blue Et Rouge @ 7/2 PP
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2.30 Leopardstown: Arkle Novice Chase (G1)
I totally get why Identity Thief is the "hype horse" here and no doubt his record makes for impressive reading. I also wouldn't read too much into his last run when pulled up. Nonetheless it is a slight concern, so is the good ground today. I feel he is best suited so rain softened underfoot conditions but then he might easily stuff my mouth if he bolts up today.
Anyway, the Arkle is quite an open and intriguing race and the slight concerns over the favourite do bring the other three rivals right into the game.
De Bromehead's nine year old Some Plan is two from three over fences and has only 2lb to find on the ratings and the one race he didn't win he fell and we never know how close he would have gone. Still early days in his chasing career but he already looks a better chaser than hurdler and no doubt there's more improvement likely to come.
The grey Blue Et Rouge is the youngest challenger in the race and looks to have plenty of ability. A winner of a solid Beginners Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, he left a lasting impression on me. Truth told his jumping wasn't the best that day, though he was badly hampered two out by a faller and it was impressive how quickly he made up lost ground to jump the final fence on par eventually. Once clearing the last he produced a fine turn of foot to win with plenty in hand.
Willie Mullins also saddles nine year old Royal Cavalier. A solid sort in his own right and a good jumper, but he has a bit to find with his three rivals.
At given prices I do fancy Blue Et Rouge to be thereabouts in the finish. The drop in trip doesn't concern me personally, given he showed plenty of pace the other day. He acts on track anf ground quite clearly and should have learned plenty from his first outing over fences. He looks an incredibly exciting prospect.
Blue Et Rouge @ 7/2 PP
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3.30 Irish Champion Hurdle (G1)
A disappointing renewal given Faugheen's absence, Now this looks pretty much a two horse race, though the younger Petit Mouchoir is firmly fancied. Rightly so, after an impressive Ryanair Hurdle success where he beat today's most dangerous rival Nicholas Canyon quite easily. But do we get carried away and letrecency bias influence our judgement a bit too much here? Let's not forget Petit Mouchoir win record is not impressive at all and given he was a 3m point to point winner it might well be the case that he can get into trouble on this good ground against a pacier sort.
Connections couldn't explain Nicholas Canyon's rather lacklustre showing at Christmas. Seven lengths beaten in second by Petit Mouchoir seems not a true reflection of his ability. Now, if he is anywhere close to his best - and his seasonal comeback run suggested he is as good as ever - then he should make this a real race for the long odds-on favourite. Obviously he has to improve a good bit to get closer this time, and fact is he's better with cut in the ground and probably on a right handed track....
Yet, let's not forget he's last years Cheltenham Champion Hurdle third, a seven times Grade 1 winner, including two of those here at Leopardstown. On ratings he's only two pounds to find with Petit Mouchoir and it's not unreasonable to believe NC can be closer to this rival today.
Hard to make a case for Footpad and Ivanovich Gorbatov, though the later one is the reigning Triumph Hurdle winner nonetheless so can't be fully discounted.
Nicholas Canyon @ 11/4 Ladbrokes
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3.10 Kenilworth: Sun Met (Group 1), 10 furlongs:
New sponsor for the Met which suddenly has become the richest race in South Africa. Five Million Rand on stake (equates for roughly €350k) and all the top guns are running! Legal Eagle is the favourite after a commanding success in the Queen's Plate over a mile ten days ago, he also was a fine runner-up in the Met last season - though whether 10f is quite his optimum trip is debatable. The draw and pace situation is a slight worry in my mind, though on ratings he's incredibly hard to beat.
Classy Marinaresco comes closest rating wise and has a big shout judged on his tremendous runner-up performance in last years Durban July. 10f will suit down to the grounds here, though the latest rather disappointing run in the Queens Plate is of concern, so is the lack of pace in the race which might see him get going too late.
Much improved since a gelding op has been Whiskey Baron. He won four on the trot, though of lesser nature. He looked the "real deal" in those races nonetheless, as South Africa's racing experts put it, The trip is an unkown however and we don't know whether he truly is a top flight performer.
The only three year old in the race, Gold Standard, has only 52kg to shoulder, but has still a lot to find on pure ratings and is effectively out of the weights. He's lightly raced, ever improving and it's not unfeasible to believe that he can improve enough for the step up in trip to be a big player with red hot Richard Fourie in the saddle.
Super mare Bela Bela has guts like only few have as shown in her dramatic win in the G1 Paddock Stakes. Trip is fine here, draw is good, though it's a tough ask at 57kg against the best boys in the country.
If French Navy could find back to his best he'd rate a fair chance, but his last win dates back well over a year now and he simply seemed to fell out of love with the game in my mind.
The jury is still out on last years Derby winner It's my Turn. He followed up with big performances in the Daily News and Durban July but was convincingly beaten in lesser class by Whiskey Baron the last two starts. Albeit one could argue those were prep races and connections had the Met always on their mind as the main target. A decent draw and the ability to take a race by the neck in combination with the return to his optimum trip means he's my selection.
It's My Turn @ 18/1 Sportingbet
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3.10 Kenilworth: Sun Met (Group 1), 10 furlongs:
New sponsor for the Met which suddenly has become the richest race in South Africa. Five Million Rand on stake (equates for roughly €350k) and all the top guns are running! Legal Eagle is the favourite after a commanding success in the Queen's Plate over a mile ten days ago, he also was a fine runner-up in the Met last season - though whether 10f is quite his optimum trip is debatable. The draw and pace situation is a slight worry in my mind, though on ratings he's incredibly hard to beat.
Classy Marinaresco comes closest rating wise and has a big shout judged on his tremendous runner-up performance in last years Durban July. 10f will suit down to the grounds here, though the latest rather disappointing run in the Queens Plate is of concern, so is the lack of pace in the race which might see him get going too late.
Much improved since a gelding op has been Whiskey Baron. He won four on the trot, though of lesser nature. He looked the "real deal" in those races nonetheless, as South Africa's racing experts put it, The trip is an unkown however and we don't know whether he truly is a top flight performer.
The only three year old in the race, Gold Standard, has only 52kg to shoulder, but has still a lot to find on pure ratings and is effectively out of the weights. He's lightly raced, ever improving and it's not unfeasible to believe that he can improve enough for the step up in trip to be a big player with red hot Richard Fourie in the saddle.
Super mare Bela Bela has guts like only few have as shown in her dramatic win in the G1 Paddock Stakes. Trip is fine here, draw is good, though it's a tough ask at 57kg against the best boys in the country.
If French Navy could find back to his best he'd rate a fair chance, but his last win dates back well over a year now and he simply seemed to fell out of love with the game in my mind.
The jury is still out on last years Derby winner It's my Turn. He followed up with big performances in the Daily News and Durban July but was convincingly beaten in lesser class by Whiskey Baron the last two starts. Albeit one could argue those were prep races and connections had the Met always on their mind as the main target. A decent draw and the ability to take a race by the neck in combination with the return to his optimum trip means he's my selection.
It's My Turn @ 18/1 Sportingbet
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1.45 Cheltenham: Special Tiara @ 6/1 PP
On last years Champion Chase form there is a head between Un De Sceaux and Special Tiara, which is not allot, so the price difference between the two here looks too big. It's probably true that we don't quite whether Special Tiara has regressed in the meantime, given he's ten now and didn't really convince in two starts this season. But then UDS is not quite the world beater he promised to be in his earlier days so this race looks slightly more open than the betting suggests.
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4.00 Cheltenham: Unowhatimeanharry @ 11/10 Bet365
Really difficult to pick holes into the favourite's form. Yes Ballyoptic fell the other day and is four pounds better in the weights this time, still Unowhatimeanharry looks a worthy favourite given his strong over course and distance, something Ballyoptic does not have.
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1.50 Lingfield: Arnarson @ evens PP
This should be a penalty kick. Arnarson has been improving through his first two starts and his recent runner-up performance at Newcastle over this 7f trip is incredibly strong form in the context of the opposition he's facing in this maiden.
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5.00 Wolverhampton: Fastnet Blast @ 5/1 Bet365
This lad is still seeking a maiden victory but was arguably unlucky the other day at Newcastle over 10f when travelling like the winner but finding it difficult to get past the long timer leader who had an easy time on front throughout. He's now to prove he can win a race off his current mark after getting close in handicaps in the past too, but never been quite good enough. Off bottom weight with Baker in the saddle over track and trip to suit, he's got an excellent chance.
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HC @ 28/1 ew 4pl 1/4 odds with Bet365
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3.10 Leopardstown: Hidden Cyclone EW @ 28/1
The old boy has probably allot to do off top weight but at this price can't go unbacked with 4 placec at 1/4 odds. He is still as good as ever finishing an excellent third in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle following up on a solid Punchestown success in October. He has performed with credit in these type of big handicaps in the past and in fact his record over 2 miles is pretty impressive. So with a clear round of jumping he should be in the shake-up at least.
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2.35 Lingfield: Rock Steady @ 5/1 Bet365
Pinzolo looks to have the race at his mercy given he won off one pound higher over CD last year and was impressive lto, but he gives weight away to improving Rock Steady who in five starts on the All-Weather ran five times into the money and who confirmed a fine 12f success at Wolverhampton with a subsequent effort over slightly further when agonisingly beaten in the closing stages. Down to his potential optimum he may improve a couple of pounds yet again.
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2.35 Lingfield: Rock Steady @ 5/1 Bet365
Pinzolo looks to have the race at his mercy given he won off one pound higher over CD last year and was impressive lto, but he gives weight away to improving Rock Steady who in five starts on the All-Weather ran five times into the money and who confirmed a fine 12f success at Wolverhampton with a subsequent effort over slightly further when agonisingly beaten in the closing stages. Down to his potential optimum he may improve a couple of pounds yet again.
3.15 Haydock: Virak @ 20/1 Bet365
Virak was a fine runner-up in this very same race last year off a seven pound higher mark. He gets his soft conditions today again and given his excellent track record should ensure he can run big with connections having this race in mind for a while. On the other side the last two disappointing performances are a concern, it's hard to know if he's right. But at the price he's a live chance.
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1.30 Lingfield: Roundabout Magic @ 13/2 Ladbrokes
The step up in trip in a slowly run race proved fatal lto when RM seemingly run his race early. Still plenty of positives to take away as he lead right into the final furlong and expectantly tired only then badly. That was a much better race than this here where he also was 2lb out off the handicap, also the form works out really well - he drops two classes now right into a low grade class 6 handicap plus is back down in trip which will suit as he was an impressive CD winner only two starts back. A handy 3lb apprentice allowance should ensure the colt must be a prime chance in this race.
8.15 Wolverhampton: Brooke's Point @ 9/2 Ladbrokes
Still a maiden and probably a bit disappointing as favourite on his AW debut at Kempton the other day. However that was his first start for a while, so he may have needed the run, and the slight drop in trip should suit him here at Wolverhampton where over Cape Cross offspring has a tremendous record over CD. Brooke's Point did not look totally useless when a close runner-up on turf during the summer in a slight better handicap - form that worked out rather well. With a good apprentice in the saddle there is every chance for a big run in a poor field.
Cheltenham Tipsters Competition - Day 2 Selections
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
1.30 Ch: Neon Wolf
2.10 Ch: Acapella Bourgeois
2.50 Ch: Mister Miyagi
3.30 Ch: Douvan
4.10 Ch: Any Currency
4.50 Ch: Devin Bere
5.30 Ch: Quick Grabim