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robertob
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4.10 Ripon: Class 3 Fillies' Handicap, 6 Furlongs
Open enough looking contest and I take a chance on bottom weight Savannah Slew. Other three year old's in the field are better fancied and this filly has questions to answer given that she already had eight career runs, is a bit temperamental and wasn't convincing on her seasonal reappearance.
However she should strip fitter now and will enjoy the return to six furlongs, a trip she won two starts back. Ground wise it won't be a big deal if any cut is left as her two victories came on softish ground although on pedigree better ground is what should be her optimum.
A mark off 78 is stiff enough and she will need to improve, though juvenile form gives her every chance given she already ran to an RPR of 81 and should be home in the conditions encountered here at Ripon.
Selection:
Savannah Slew @ 10/1 Bet365 -
Already two nice winners with one more chace to come in the lucky last at Doni... but here my thoughts on the Preakness Stakes:
11.48 Pimlico: Preakness Stakes
Always Dreaming was brilliant the way he won the Kentucky Derby, doing it "the hard way" as by no means he got an easy lead that day. He found plenty when it mattered after gruelling fractions on the front for most parts of the race.
Derby winners have a good record taking the second step along the road toward Triple Crown glory. So Always Dreaming may well be hard to beat today. However conditions are quite different this time around and he's an odds-on chance - short enough to take on at this point in time given there are two intriguing alternatives at bigger prices.
It's not difficult to give Classic Empire another chance today. This massively talented colt is quite a character and it wasn't all plain sailing for him since winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Still he managed to get ready in time for the big one at Churchill Downs, on the way there proving himself to still retain all his class when getting up late in the Arkansas Derby.
Unfortunately things did not work out for him in the Kentucky Derby. A wide draw that day, bumped left and right once the gate opened, he was a long way off the pace and had to make his move widest of all around the home turn, then bumped again, mud in his face, banged up, he still ran on to finish fourth.
It was a tremendous performance, probably as good as the one of the winner, Always Dreaming. If he has recovered in time for the Preakness I really fancy him to turn the form around in a much smaller field with a better chance for a clear run. In my book he's closer to Always Dreaming than the odds suggest.
That says there is a second horse that I feel is overpriced, by quite a margin, actually. That is Arkansas Derby runner-up Conquest Mo Money. He was qualified for the Derby but connections decided to target the Preakness. So that is certainly something to take note of.
You have to take note of his massively brave performance at Oaklawn Park too. From the second widest draw he crossed over to be right up with the pace and take up the lead halfway through. Put under immense pressure turning for home he fought gamely; headed a good furlong out he went on again to put his head in front.... just to be beaten in the dying strides by Classic Empire.
Now Conquest Mo Money has a wide draw today again, however with only ten runners this is not quite as big a deal. He's still quite a lightly raced individual, so there is every that he learned a bit more and finds some improvement. At 25's he's huge value against the market leader.
Selection:
5pts win - Classic Empire @ 7/2 Bet365
5pts win - Conquest Mo Money @ 25/1 Paddy Power -
8.50 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6 Furlongs
I give handicap debutante Manshood a good chance to outrun his price tag. He's had five starts in maiden company so far, placed three times, the two times he ran over today's trip he was in the money running to RPR's of 72 and 73.
He's got a fine pipe opener under his belt last month, that should set him up nicely and didn't sacrifice his potentially lenient opening mark.
Potentially lenient if he improves for his first handicap start in new conditions. Soft ground, though, should suit quite well on pedigree. Martin Lane was the other day in the saddle, so got to know Manshood, and has the ride today too. Could be an advantage.
Selection:
Manshood @ 14/1 Paddy Power -
3.30 Newbury: Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, 1 Mile
The first big clash of the best older milers this season. And what a mouth-watering race in prospect this is. Three 120/+ individuals head to head - this could go down to the wire!
Or not? All three main contenders - Ribchester, Galileo Gold and Lightning Spear - have to overcome the slight doubts of full race fitness on their seasonal reappearance.
Could that play into the hands of the master that is Aiden O'Brien? Shrewdly he has placed Somehow - a quality filly in her own right - here in the Lockinge. With her sex allowance and fitness assured, she could certainly cause an upset.
Somewhow won twelve days ago a Group 2 at Newmarket - a fifth career success in ten starts - though the jury is still out whether she is a top-notcher.
Dropping down to a mile in soft conditions I can see a scenario unfold where she cruises closely behind Ribchester's pacemaker, and then from over 3f out takes over with a big move that puts all behind in trouble. With fitness and stamina a given, she could stay on to lead the field all the way over the line.
The 7/1 odds scream value if you believe in the merit of this scenario. I do. But I also have concerns about the fact that Somehow already had three tough races - two in very tough conditions - in the last five weeks. Plus she has to find a bit with the three big guns if ratings are believed.
On ratings there is not a lot between Ribchester, Galileo Gold and Lightning Spear, though. I would still discount David Simcock's six year old on the basis of the ground that probably does suit him the least. His very best in the past came on fast ground. Plus Lightning Spear is still searching for the elusive first Group 1 victory.
That is different for Ribchester and Galileo Gold. Both have won on the highest level - Galileo Gold even twice. And both have excellent form with cut in the ground.
The score's equal between the two. On ratings there's a single pound between them, yet the market has Ribchester a clear 6/4 favourite. Probably on the basis that the son of Iffraaj has still a bit of improvement left.
He might have but he might not. In fact there is only a single career run betwen Ribchester and Galileo Gold.
On balance I would agree that Ribchester is likely to be the better prospect for the season. He looks the type to do better with age and experience, whereas Galileo Gold appears more likely to regress. However at this point in time it is also Galileo Gold's best chance to win a big race this year, I feel.
Connections will certainly be aware of this. He should be fully wound up, his record as a fresh horse is fine and of all horses in the field he has the best record on soft ground. So given the prices I have to side with Galileo Gold who I would have more like a 5/2 chance in my book.
Selection:
10pts win - Galileo Gold @ 9/2 Bet365......
4.05 Newbury: Class 2 Conditions Stakes, 6 Furlongs
All about Richard Hannon's Denaar here. He was an easy winner under hands and heels in a Chelmsford maiden on debut a mere twelve days ago over the minimum trip. The step up to 6f should suit very well and the change in conditions - at least on pedigree - is no problem; in fact can be beneficial.
The form of his maiden success looks rock solid through the experienced runner-up who on his penultimate start ran well in a race that threw up a handful of winners as well as a subsequent listed placed individual.
Selection:
10pts win - Denaar @ 15/8 Paddy Power.....
5.10 Newbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1 Mile
Big field and an open contest, so at a price I give Grand Inquisitor a chance to find back to some sort of form, now returning to turf with cut in the ground off a dangerous mark.
He moved yards during the winter and hasn't excelled for new connections on the All-Weather the last two starts over seven furlongs, but it might not be wise to judge him too harshly on those efforts.
Back over the slightly longer trip with conditions he's proven to handle and only 2lb above his last winning mark I see a fair chance for him returning to form Not to forget he ran some massive races off much higher marks last season and knocked on the door in tough Handicaps of marks around 95.
Selection:
10pts win - Grand Inquisitor @ 18/1 Bet365......
5.35 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 5 Furlongs
Richard Fahey's Paddy Power slipped dramatically in the handicap mark compared to what the four year old ran of last season. Now down to 75 with the benefit of a fine pipe opener on Newcastle's All-Weather, the gelding seems well handicapped on return to turf.
His win record is dismal, but he raced of up to 10lb higher in good Handicaps last year has performed more often than with credit - in fact on RPR's he ran 11 times to ratings above his current mark of 75.
Softish conditions should be no problem, he has some okay form on this type of surface. His sire performs decent enough too, and the dam is a Listed winner on soft ground. Added 3lb apprentice allowance is a little icing on the cake.
Selection:
10pts win - Paddy Power @ 4/1 Bet365......
8.50 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6 Furlongs
I give handicap debutante Manshood a good chance to outrun his price tag. He's had five starts in maiden company so far, placed three times, the two times he ran over today's trip he was in the money running to RPR's of 72 and 73.
He's got a fine pipe opener under his belt last month, that should set him up nicely and didn't sacrifice his potentially lenient opening mark.
Potentially lenient if he improves for his first handicap start in new conditions. Soft ground, though, should suit quite well on pedigree. Martin Lane was the other day in the saddle, so got to know Manshood, and has the ride today too. Could be an advantage.
Selection:
10pts win - Manshood @ 14/1 Paddy Power -
8.00 Newmarket: Class 5 Fillies' Handicap, 1 mile
You have to take note whenever Charlie Appleby and William Buck arrive with lightly raced individuals to the party. The yard is going very well at the moment and they look to have another big chance with Pure Shores here in this big field though not overly competitive race.
Pure Shores makes her Handicap debut after three relatively decent performances in maiden company. Particularly the two starts this year over 10f where eye-catching in my view.
Both times she pulled very hard in the early parts of the race. Despite this keenness she travelled like the winner on both occasions, though same story in the finish: the did not get home.
That might be more down to the energy wasted early on than the trip as on pedigree that looks fine. Still the drop to 1m in a big field with better pace should suit down to the ground. Softish ground - on pedigree at least - seems no problem.
Her opening mark of 76 could easily undervalue her true talent given this will only be her second start on turf and she ran much better than the bare form suggests at Sandown last month when sixth behind winner Serenada, who to some extend gave this form some substance in the Musidora Stakes on Wednesday afternoon.
Selection:
Pure Shores @ 6/1 Bet365 -
4.05 York: Musidora Stakes (Fillies' Group 3), 1m 2f
On paper it is hard to oppose exciting Shutter Speed on the back of a very impressive performance at York last month, which also worked out extremely well with the 3rd Enable winning the Cheshire Oaks subsequently.
However with the ground easing and further rain on its way it might be a little bit more an open contest than the odds-on price tag for John Gosden's filly suggests, mainly because Jim Bolger brings an intriguing contender in the name of Vociferous Marina over.
This girl has put the "wow look" already twice on my face in her young career. That was last year at the Curragh when she cantered all over the field to produce a stunning turn of foot to win a 7f maiden.
And that was at Navan in the listes Salsabil Stakes last month when she looked still a bit green and raw but once in the clear power home in tremendous style from the back of the field which in turn earned her a higher speed rating than the one Shutter Speed - albeit eased down in the final 100y - in her last outing.
Vociferous Marina clearly responded for the step up in trip after she bombed out on her seasonal debut run, though she was a big drifter on that day and things went clearly not her way.
She has shown in the past that cut in the ground is not a problem, so the soft conditions won't bother her I suspect. She clearly is a big danger to Shutter Speed in my book as the turn of foot she has shown on two occasions now looks quite special.
Selection:
Vociferous Marina @ 5/1 Bet365 -
4.05 York: Musidora Stakes (Fillies' Group 3), 1m 2f
On paper it is hard to oppose exciting Shutter Speed on the back of a very impressive performance at York last month, which also worked out extremely well with the 3rd Enable winning the Cheshire Oaks subsequently.
However with the ground easing and further rain on its way it might be a little bit more an open contest than the odds-on price tag for John Gosden's filly suggests, mainly because Jim Bolger brings an intriguing contender in the name of Vociferous Marina over.
This girl has put the "wow look" already twice on my face in her young career. That was last year at the Curragh when she cantered all over the field to produce a stunning turn of foot to win a 7f maiden.
And that was at Navan in the listes Salsabil Stakes last month when she looked still a bit green and raw but once in the clear power home in tremendous style from the back of the field which in turn earned her a higher speed rating than the one Shutter Speed - albeit eased down in the final 100y - in her last outing.
Vociferous Marina clearly responded for the step up in trip after she bombed out on her seasonal debut run, though she was a big drifter on that day and things went clearly not her way.
She has shown in the past that cut in the ground is not a problem, so the soft conditions won't bother her I suspect. She clearly is a big danger to Shutter Speed in my book as the turn of foot she has shown on two occasions now looks quite special.
Selection:
10pts win - Vociferous Marina @ 5/1 Bet365......
5.25 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 6 Furlongs
The jockey booking is eye-catching for handicap debutante Frank's Legacy. De Sousa in the saddle for trainer Ivan Furtado yielded in significant success in the past - this is in line with a very intriguing runner in this race.
This Aqlaam gelding didn't show allot in three maiden starts, however stepping up in trip to 6f on his handicap debut should suit allot. His opening mark does not look overly harsh and gives him every chance.
The draw is potentially not ideal, however if Frank's Legacy is as well handicapped as I would believe then it does not matter. He certainly has scope to improve, given Aqlaam offspring tends to progress significantly with age and experience.
Selection:
10pts win - Frank's Legacy @ 5/1 Skybet -
2.00 Beverley: Novice Stakes, 5 furlongs
Mark Johnston's Kodiac colt Go Now Go Now looks an overpriced individual in this race. The colt was very green on his debut last week at Ayr where was sluggish at the start while then very keen during the race and disorganised when it mattered most.
However under a clearly educational ride he finished the race nicely and responded quite well to a tender flick with the whip.
He ended fourth in what appears to be a half-decent maiden against more experienced rivals and should have learned plenty. He's entitled to improve from that run, particularly for the switch to Beverley where his sire Kodiac enjoys a very good success rate.
Selection:
Go Now Go Now @ 11/1 Bet365 -
3.25 Wetherby: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs
Dutch Artist ran a big race in defeat on his seasonal return at Catterick last month. He didn't enjoy the run of the race and wasn't ideally positioned, which makes all the difference at this track. So his 3rd place is probably better than the bare form.
Only one win to his name so far, but he remains still low mileage for a five year old and ran a handful of stormers last season, suggesting his turn could come soon. He's dropped another pound in the mark, which sees him racing of a career lowest mark off 76 now.
Conditions tomorrow should work be fine though the draw is wider than ideal. However with a early pace that he possesses, he should plenty of options.
Selection:
Dutch Artist @ 11/2 William Hill -
3.25 Wetherby: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs
Dutch Artist ran a big race in defeat on his seasonal return at Catterick last month. He didn't enjoy the run of the race and wasn't ideally positioned, which makes all the difference at this track. So his 3rd place is probably better than the bare form.
Only one win to his name so far, but he remains still low mileage for a five year old and ran a handful of stormers last season, suggesting his turn could come soon. He's dropped another pound in the mark, which sees him racing of a career lowest mark off 76 now.
Conditions tomorrow should work be fine though the draw is wider than ideal. However with a early pace that he possesses, he should plenty of options.
Selection:
10pts win - Dutch Artist @ 11/2 William Hill......
5.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Top connections, top entries, to form: Crowned Eagle should be way too good for the opposition in this race. Of course fitness has to be trusted and there is always a question mark whether these young horses have wintered well.
However, I waited for the return of this lad for a while and would have expected him to be odds-on in a race like this, so I'm happy to to take the risk.
Crowned Eagle was third behind Barney Roy on debut - strong form, given that we do know how smart this Barney Roy turned out to be. He got off the mark at the third time of asking at Kempton. A nice piece of form too: the runner-up won subsequently and was thought good enough for a spin around Meydan, is now a 90 rated individual.
With further progression assumed for experience, age and the step up in trip, the current mark of 85 looks potentially well below what Crowned Eagle is capable of. Only slight concern is the fast ground.
Selection:
10pts win - Crowned Eagle @ 2/1 Skybet -
WOW what a day - big winner in the Derby Trial and Bainne got up on the line to win the penultimate at the Curragh despite drifting to 9/1!
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2.30 Lingfield: Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
You had to be impressed with Sir John Lavery's maiden success at Gowran Park last October, but he's a very short price for a yard that we know doesn't send their big guns to Lingfield. We haven't seen him this year yet too, so you got to have allot of trust - which I don't have and therefore think he's worth to take on.
John Gosden's Tartini was a fair 4th on his return in the Epsom Derby Trial, he may well improve for the run and will probably be seen in better light here stripping fitter and hopefully enjoying a bit more in-runging luck.
However for a price I do feel is over the top the bin Suroor's Best Solution makes most appeal. It's not ideal that he has to give weight away, but the Kodiac colt is head and shoulders above the rest on 2yo form where he ended the year with an excellent runner-up effort in the Group 1 Criterium de St. Cloud.
His runs in Meydan may be forgiven, he just didn't take to the dirt. So a return to turf with a bit of cut in the ground could easily see him improving. He has the right profile to be a better three year old and a fair chance to stay the trip.
Selection:
Best Solution @ 12/1 PP -
2.30 Lingfield: Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
You had to be impressed with Sir John Lavery's maiden success at Gowran Park last October, but he's a very short price for a yard that we know doesn't send their big guns to Lingfield. We haven't seen him this year yet too, so you got to have allot of trust - which I don't have and therefore think he's worth to take on.
John Gosden's Tartini was a fair 4th on his return in the Epsom Derby Trial, he may well improve for the run and will probably be seen in better light here stripping fitter and hopefully enjoying a bit more in-runging luck.
However for a price I do feel is over the top the bin Suroor's Best Solution makes most appeal. It's not ideal that he has to give weight away, but the Kodiac colt is head and shoulders above the rest on 2yo form where he ended the year with an excellent runner-up effort in the Group 1 Criterium de St. Cloud.
His runs in Meydan may be forgiven, he just didn't take to the dirt. So a return to turf with a bit of cut in the ground could easily see him improving. He has the right profile to be a better three year old and a fair chance to stay the trip.
Selection:
10pts win - Best Solution @ 12/1 PP.......
3.25 Ascot: Class 2 Fillies' Handicap, 1 mile
Both three year old's look intriguing in this contest, however the older Singyoursong is equally a very interesting contender, and in by book a better betting proposition. An improving filly last season, she is still on the up as was evident when she won on her seasonal reappearance earlier this month at Brighton.
That day over 10f she produced a nice turn of foot coming from the rear of the field to get up with plenty in hand. A 5lb rise in the mark could undervalue that success. The drop in trip to 1m isn't an issue as she has is three from six over this distance.
Furthermore Singyoursong has course form - she won a valuable Handicap here last July in similar conditions.
Selection:
10pts win - Singyoursong @ 11/2 Bet365......
3.50 Nottingham: Kilvington Stakes (Fillies' Listed), 6f
First time blinkered Pichola Dance could improve for the combination of headgear, drop in trip and drop in class. She found opposition in the Fed Darling on her seasonal reappearance to hot and faded away in the closing stages, however with the rail to aim at from her draw she might use her pace to advantage today.
She's twice a winner as a juvenile, including a good class 2 Handicap over 7f, and ended the season on a high with 3rd placed effort in Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury. With fitness on her side, ground to suit and potentially conditions to improve for, she can run a better race than the price suggests.
Selection:
10pts win - Pichola Dance @ 22/1 Bet365.....
5.05 Curragh: Apprentice Handicap, 7 furlongs
Market leader Baine has been knocking on the door a couple of times and her two latest efforts have been massively eye-catching that also stand up form wise.
She is a horse that needs a bit of luck given she usually races at the rear of the field and certainly at Cork last month she did not get a clear run, finding traffic on numerous occasions stopping her smooth progress.
She still finished a strong 3rd behind a well handicapped winner who won subsequently and a runner-up who finished a solid 5th in a Listed contest the next time.
Baine went on to run another big race, then at Leopardstown. From a wide draw she missed the kick and was dead last turning for home. She manoeuvred her way through the whole 18 runner strong field but didn't quite get there, finishing 3rd for the third consecutive time.
This is another big field today and she will need to get the breaks when needed, however form wise she looks well handicapped. I feel the better ground does suit her allot today and in this slightly weaker contest she must go very close.
Selection:
10pts win - Baine @ 7/1 Bet365 -
1.50 Chester: Class 2 Handicap, 7.5 furlongs
Hot race with a potentially well handicapped favourite in lightly raced El Hayem however the James Eustace trained Ice Slice should go close from a good draw for a much better price.
He's already a CD winner and went close from a poor draw on his only second start here. Ice Slice was a massively improved horse last year winning five races and on form looks capable of running to or even above his current handicap rating of 93.
He probably needed his seasonal reappearance run last month and should strip fitter. Conditions will suit, even if a bit of rain would fall.
Selection:
10pts win - Ice Slice @ 8/1 Bet365 -
5.05 Chester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
The final race of the opening card of the Festival - draw plays a big role at Chester, particularly over shorter trips. So going against the bias backing a horse from a wide draw is probably rather dumb.
I still do it. Reason is that I back bottom weight Fast Dancer here, who is drawn in eleven, but who is a hold-up horse and therefore might not be quite as disadvantaged by the draw as a horse that needs to lead.
Though it is also true that being up with the pace is an advantage at Chester too, it also happens regularly that they go way to fast up on front with in turn opens up opportunities for those horse ridden more patiently.
Fast Dancer will rely on this fast pace and what encourages me most is his positive course record. Also he dropped to a mark that potentially undervalues his past achievements and therefore a race to suit should see him have a cracking chance here.
Selection:
Fast Dancer @ 14/1 Bet365 -
2.25 Chester: Cheshire Oaks (Listed), 1m 4f
Aiden O'Brien has used this race as a springboard for plenty of good fillies in the past, in fact his record is quite sublime and therefore it should be a tip in itself that he brings Alluringly here on the back of a mightily impressive maiden success last month.
The Fastnet Rock filly rocked home at Tipperary in stylish fashion, giving the impression that she could be a very smart individual. She looked, big and scopey, clearly physically improved that day, after two slightly underwhelming runs as a juvenile.
The step up in trip is the question mark. She goes as far as never before and it's not clear cut on pedigree, however there is Saddler's Wells in the dam line, so that alone should ensure that she has at least a fighting chance. Also she ran strongly to the line the other day, giving the impression a step up in trip will only see her improving again.
Selection:
10pts win - Alluringly @ 6/4 Skybet.......
5.05 Chester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
The final race of the opening card of the Festival - draw plays a big role at Chester, particularly over shorter trips. So going against the bias backing a horse from a wide draw is probably rather dumb.
I still do it. Reason is that I back bottom weight Fast Dancer here, who is drawn in eleven, but who is a hold-up horse and therefore might not be quite as disadvantaged by the draw as a horse that needs to lead.
Though it is also true that being up with the pace is an advantage at Chester too, it also happens regularly that they go way to fast up on front with in turn opens up opportunities for those horse ridden more patiently.
Fast Dancer will rely on this fast pace and what encourages me most is his positive course record. Also he dropped to a mark that potentially undervalues his past achievements and therefore a race to suit should see him have a cracking chance here.
Selection:
10pts win - Fast Dancer @ 14/1 Bet365 -
3.00 Ayr: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Dalgleish's Eez Eh looks overpriced in this race now probably fitter than on his seasonal reappearance last month. The four year was gelded over the winter after a pretty fruitful opening campaign.
He went through three obligatory maiden runs to get a handicap and after finding 12f too far on handicap debut he was subsequently dropped in trip and finished runner-up twice but went one better when dropped down to 9f at Carlisle where he got finally off the mark.
You can draw a line through his final start in 2016 on soft ground over 12f. However conditions at Ayr should suit, 10f on fast ground looks ideal. Eez Eh is only 3lb higher than his last winning mark but ran already three times to RPR's above that, so there is a good chance that he could still pull out a bit more under optimal conditions.
Selection:
Eez Eh @ 17/2 William Hill -
3.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Captain Bob is a very infrequent winner, in fact his last "1" dates back to 2014. However a falling mark seems to have reinvigorate him, particularly on the All-Weather were he has been placed in all his three starts which all came earlier this year.
He also took relatively easily to the Southwell fibresand. In fact he produced a strong performance over 6f when only beaten by a head in the end. This piece of form looks rock solid and judged on it he appears now to be potentially well handicapped.
He followed up with a fine 3rd place at Brighton subsequently on fast ground over 6f but I feel it this more stamina focused test over the same trip at Southwell suits him slightly better, and probably even more so as we now know he acts on the surface and Captain Bob himself has learned how to race on fibresand.
He's got a good draw and a red hot apprentice in the saddle, so this may represent the best chance in a very long time to finally get his head in front.
Selection:
Captain Bob @ 4/1 Bet365 -
3.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Captain Bob is a very infrequent winner, in fact his last "1" dates back to 2014. However a falling mark seems to have reinvigorate him, particularly on the All-Weather were he has been placed in all his three starts which all came earlier this year.
He also took relatively easily to the Southwell fibresand. In fact he produced a strong performance over 6f when only beaten by a head in the end. This piece of form looks rock solid and judged on it he appears now to be potentially well handicapped.
He followed up with a fine 3rd place at Brighton subsequently on fast ground over 6f but I feel it this more stamina focused test over the same trip at Southwell suits him slightly better, and probably even more so as we now know he acts on the surface and Captain Bob himself has learned how to race on fibresand.
He's got a good draw and a red hot apprentice in the saddle, so this may represent the best chance in a very long time to finally get his head in front.
Selection:
10pts win - Captain Bob @ 4/1 Bet365.....
5.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
This is a shockingly poor contest given an 11 year old is favourite and a 20 times maiden is thought to be closes pursuer. However it is the still winless Kodimoor who seems overpriced in this race, despite his desperate record.
Reason to believe he can be very competitive is the fact that he dropped markedly in the weights and finished a decent third in an Apprentice Handicap over CD in January, trying fibresand for the first time.
That form gives him a big chance of effectively 5lb less, given his mark dropped 3lb since then and the change of jockey allowance taken into account - while it is fair to say 7lb claimer David Egan is quite competent and no worse than Ms. Malune who claimed 5lb the other day.
Selection:
10pts win - Kodimoor @ 7/2 Bet365.......
7.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Lightly raced Shergiah should have more to offer now stepping up in trip after a decent comeback run at Lingfield over a mile where a sprint finish did not suit him.
However he looked quite good on his final run in 2016 when he landed a decent maiden at Ripon in impressive style, given how well he picked up once asked for full effort.
This good looking gelding has still a bit of scope to improve and in this not overly strong race he could get his season off to a flyer.
Selection:
10pts win - Shergiah @ 10/3 Paddy Power -
3.55 Leopardstown: Handicap, 7 furlongs
He's never won on turf, nonetheless Split The Atom looks incredibly well handicapped here. It's not like that he doesn't act on grass, in fact he's been placed six times, however never found the right opportunity.
It looked like he could break the duck at Navan a fortnight ago. He travelled much the best and finished like a train but was arguably an unlucky runner-up.
He's got a chance to race off the same mark, however with a 5lb apprentice in the saddle and over his preferred 7f trip on fast ground where he has a four out of six place strike rate.
The wide draw is not a problem because he's a hold-up horse anyway, however it is not easy to win from far back at Leopardstown, so that is an obvious question mark. Nonetheless on RPR's an time speed figures he has a tremendous chance and I'm happy to go risk at a big price.
Selection:
Split The Atom @ 7/1 Bet365 -
1.50 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f
This is a hot contest with some really good horses lining up. Favourite Big Country is an exciting improver who looks certain to bring his All-Weather form to the turf. His last Kempton win is excellent form and the lightly raced son of High Chaparral could easily defy a 10lb rise in the mark.
However at prices I prefer top weight Frontiersman. Yes, it's a tough task to run of 101 and 9st 10lb in a Handicap. However this lad looks pattern class. He has filled his huge frame nicely over the winter, strengthening further after a fine 3yo campaign last season that saw him win a nice Handicap over course and distance.
He clearly needed the run on his reapearance at Doncaster last month and should be primed now. Fast ground seems key, which he gets here at Newmarket. He takes plenty of beating in my mind.
Selection:
10pts win - Frontiersman @ 5/1 Paddy Power......
3.55 Leopardstown: Handicap, 7 furlongs
He's never won on turf, nonetheless Split The Atom looks incredibly well handicapped here. It's not like that he doesn't act on grass, in fact he's been placed six times, however never found the right opportunity.
It looked like he could break the duck at Navan a fortnight ago. He travelled much the best and finished like a train but was arguably an unlucky runner-up.
He's got a chance to race off the same mark, however with a 5lb apprentice in the saddle and over his preferred 7f trip on fast ground where he has a four out of six place strike rate.
The wide draw is not a problem because he's a hold-up horse anyway, however it is not easy to win from far back at Leopardstown, so that is an obvious question mark. Nonetheless on RPR's an time speed figures he has a tremendous chance and I'm happy to go risk at a big price.
Selection:
10pts win - Split The Atom @ 7/1 Bet365........
4.55 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5 furlongs
Kwvin Ryan's Al Hawraa seems judged on a poor seasonal reappearance but it's likely she's going to be much sharper this time. We don't know yet how good (or bad) daughter of Iffraaj is, though there was some indication last season that she is not totally without talent.
She was able to finish a good runner-up on debut behind subsequent dual winner and she managed to finish in the placings another two times in maiden company. It's fair to say she looked bad in her two handicap runs, however her opening mark was potentially on the stiff side.
She dropped down to 63 now and judged on her maiden form that could give her a chance to be competitive if she can respond well for the slight step up in trip. Ground looks fine and Kevin Ryan tends to do pretty well at Hamilton even more so if Kevin Stock is in the saddle.
Selection:
10pts win - Al Hawraa @ 14/1 Bet365 -
3.35 Newmarket: Al Wukair @ 5/1 PP - e/w
5.00 Goodwood: Duchess Of Fife @ 9/1 Bet365 - e/w
6.50 Doncaster: Gallipoli @ 10/3 WH -
5.00 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 10f
Duchess Of Fife looks an intriguing contender for a red hot yard. The filly was pretty raw with plenty to learn in all her three maiden runs last season, however as an April foal she should have scope to improve this season. She has quite a big frame to fill too, so a winter may have done her the world of good.
A hood is applied for the first time, so she does try the 10f trip. Her maiden form looks solid rating wise, giving her every chance of an opening mark of 65. She will need to find improvement for the distance, headgear and maturity, but if she does make a step forward she should go very close here.
Selection:
Duchess Of Fife @ 9/1 Bet365
Monthly Naps - Monday May 22nd
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
2.40 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 5 Furlongs
You're better off long-term not to make too many excuses for horses if they didn't live up to expectations multiple times on the bounce. That's normally a clear sign that something is not right.
Nonetheless I make an exception in the case of the still lightly raced Backinanger. This three year gelding old has been disappointing the last two starts, but mostly on his turf Handicap debut four weeks ago. He was a bad drifter on the day, so there must have been a reason for his poor showing.
Unfortunately I backed him that day when first time cheek-pieces didn't work at all for Backinangger. He was never in the race - to my surprise because if you go back and watch his previous starts you'll see a horse that shows a bit of early speed, but also quite a bit of keenness.
In fact his performances on the All-Weather over the winter were noteworthy as more often than not he caught the eye and ran better than the bare result would suggest.
This son of Royal Applause was a late foal which explains why he often looked raw and unfinished business. Theoretically there should be improvement to come from him with age and experience. He also should enjoy fast conditions.
That's the reason why I give him one more chance - blinkers are fitted and he drops to the minimum trip, which in combination of the ground and the relive of another couple of pounds could work wonders.
Selection:
Backinanger @ 10/1 Bet365