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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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3.35 Doncaster - Lincoln Handicap
The younger and less exposed Dolphin Vista receives the assistance of Paul Hanagan and runs of near bottom weight. There might still be a bit improvement left in this son of Zoffany and I’m sure he’s ready to run a big race after on his seasonal reappearance.
He stays further and has a career highest mark to overcome but this is only his ninth handicap start, now as a four year old, if he can return to the form of his penultimate run when a winner of a 10f handicap at Beverly, he’s a big chance I firmly belief, given he’ll most likely will be ridden positively close to the leas so he can make his stamina count.
Dolphin Vista @ 14/1 Bet365
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The two Fahey runners are the two most intriguing ones in my eyes: Third Time Lucky looks sure to relish this test. He performed well in these type of big-field handicaps in the past and won't mind whatever juice is left in the ground. He's also race fit and in form, as recent results proved - though the penalty he carries is annoying, the 7lb claimer on board looks quite useful. I like his calm riding style which should be of benefit here in this race where the ability to travel strongly is key imo.
The younger and less exposed Dolphin Vista has Hanagan in the saddle and runs of near bottom weight. There might still be bit improvement in this son of Zoffany and I'm sure he's ready to run a big race after the seasonal break. He stays further and has a career highest mark to overcome but this is only his ninth handicap start, now as a four year old, if he can return to the form of his penultimate run when a winner over 10f at Beverly, he's a big chance imo, most likely receiving a positive ride where he can make his stamina count.
5pts win - Third Time Lucky @ 16/1 Unibet
5pts win - Dolphin Vista @ 14/1 Bet365 -
2.30 Southwell
Comprise looks a fair favourite and is likely hard to beat if anywhere near full race fitness which looks assured with Spencer coming to Southwell for this single ride. But there is at least a small question mark on that front as well as whether the gelding has wintered well.
Hungarian Rhapsody will enjoy the step up in trip after running well the last too times when fancied in the betting. But newcomer Bowed Not Broken looks value at 11/2 in a race where only these three horses appear to be in with a realistic chance.
The daughter of classy sprinter Casper Netscher has the assistance of the excellent Martin Harley in the saddle, while the Burke yard goes strongly recently and did well in the past in these type of races here. It also looks significant that a hood is fitted for the first time.
Selection:
10pts win - Bowed Not Broken @ 11/2 Sky......
3.50 Lingfield
Muthraab Aldaar has been treated leniently by the handicapper despite a massively eye-catching return after a seasonal break last month at Kempton. He broke very badly that day, was still last with two furlongs to go but made incredible headway marching through the whole field to finish what looked moments before an unlikely runner-up.
He should come on for the run and given he is down to a career lowest rating after having been put up way too high as a three year old after a maiden success he's here a huge chance in my book.
The trip is a slight worry because he stays a good deal further and Lingfield is a speedy track, but with so many things on the plus side he looks a good thing at tasty odds.
Selection:
10 pts win - Muthraab Aldaar @ 5/1 PP......
6.55 Kempton
Those with race experience seem vulnerable so chance is taken with well bred newcomer Altyn Alqa. The filly favours well in the weights and has a fine draw to start off her career in a very winnable race.
The Cox yard didn't have many runners lately but those send out ran extremely well. Furthermore Clieve Cox did well in these Kempton maidens and can get them ready for their debut Luke Morris in the saddle rides this track and trip quite well too.
Selection:
10pts win - Altyn Alqa @ 9/2 Bet365 -
3.50 Lingfield
Muthraab Aldaar has been treated leniently by the handicapper despite a massively eye-catching return after a seasonal break last month at Kempton. He broke very badly that day, was still last with two furlongs to go but made incredible headway marching through the whole field to finish what looked moments before an unlikely runner-up.
He should come on for the run and given he is down to a career lowest rating after having been put up way too high as a three year old after a maiden success he's here a huge chance in my book.
The trip is a slight worry because he stays a good deal further and Lingfield is a speedy track, but with so many things on the plus side he looks a good thing at tasty odds.
Selection: Muthraab Aldaar @ 5/1 PP
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Nice winner with Gymkhana arsenal!
Can't say I had much luck though it was all for small money and the one that really mattered as it was my big ante-post as mentioned before was Aussie Valentine. Would you believe it, he comes second again?! Tha't's what you call a brides made! The runner-up effort was good enough for me though.
Shame the little old stand has bee teared down. My favourite place to watch racing from in Ireland I'd say. Will be interesting to see what they replace it with. The crowd was certainly very healthy, the good weather didn't hinder the cause I guess...
Some photos I took today below:
Gymkhana storms to success in the first handicap of the new season
Alphabet an impressive winner of the 3yo 6f maiden
Czabo and Graham Lee before winning the G3 Park Express
Even the little ones didn't want to miss the exciting finish to the Group 3 Park Express Stakes
Cheltenham winner Tully East stopped by to say hello
Bottom weight Gino Severini wins the Madrid Handicap
Ger Lyons's camp - winning connections of the Irish Lincoln
- arsenalfh and BillyHills
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Here it is, the first flat meeting of the season! Sun is shining - what a surprise! Ground at Naas after a week of rain is still soft to heavy as the racecourse tweeted this morning.
My main bet of the day is in the Irish Lincoln: Aussie Valentine at 8/1 e/w, already played this a while ago and feeling confident he's hard to keep out of the money at least. Runner-up the last two seasons, gets in off a very handy mark and loves the ground.
The first two maidens are quite difficult imo, I let them run without the burden of my money on their shoulders in the first, but think Invincible Ryker (4/1) is sets a fair standard in the second one through his form from last season behind a subsequent Group places horse. Also he handles soft ground.
The sprint handicap might go to one of those lightly raced sorts at the top of the market. With price in mind I fancy a nibble on Dalgleish's raider Dark Defender who at least likes the ground and has a favourable draw off an okay mark. at 16's it seems worth a try.
The Madrid Handicap is intriguing: smart 2yo form meets race fitness. I stick with potential class and do like despite top weight Bolger's Vociferous Marina (4/1) allot. At second time asking she got off the mark in a competitive Curragh maiden in softish conditions last year and did that in brilliant style. There's Oaks talks so she's clearly thought to be a smart girl. Ger Lyons's Hansian Prince looks worth a small saver at 14's.
Somehow looks hard to beat in the G3 Park Express but Aiden's rarely fit this time in year and his Dubai runners were a big disappointment I prefer the look of Weld's 3yo Queen Anne's Lace (7/1). Not easy against older horses to run this early in the year but she is better than hare bare form suggests, she travels strongly and will relish the ground.
Good luck whatever you guys bet and enjoy the racing today!
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3.30 Lingfield: Frank The Barber @ 7/2 Bet365
Won well with bit in hand over CD lto in race that was run at a blistering pace. Five pounds up seems reasonable in an open contest. Draw is less than ideal but all the likely pace seems to come from the wider draws anyway, so seven isn't that bad after all.
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8.20 Chelmsford: Himalayan Queen @ 8/1 Bet365
The four year looks one who could still improve a bit. A CD winner back in October when seemingly still bit in hand her subsequent performances were below par but a break did her the world seemingly as she travelled and finished strongly after a 96 day long lay-off here earlier this month without getting an ideal run of things and she was clearly not knocked over. Only 2lb above her last winning mark she has a fair chance off bottom weight.
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It's a very valid point you make. The distribution of Group races is heavily geared towards the Curragh - it's HQ of racing for a reason I guess (one important factor not to forget: the majority of flat trainers are based around the Curragh). I wouldn't have an issue with some of the races to move to Leopardstown, or as you say, why not even Mallow, which is a very nice, fair track from my experience (in fairness they have two Group 3 races).
On the other hand I wouldn't say Leopardstown is underutilised as a flat track. They have 14 flat meetings every year, racing twice on a Thursday each month in the summer, with usually compelling maidens, plenty of competitive handicaps and some fine Group 3's on offer. That's quite allot. Not to forget they have all those big jump meetings in the winter. It's a super track, no doubt. I love it. The recent upgrades are fantastic, you have a sensational view of pretty much the whole course. Irish Champions Weekend Saturday is arguably the best day of racing in the whole year. I'm 100% with you on that.
I'd also argue that if you have a high class day as the first day of the ICW is, it's very hard to match that on the second day, regardless of where you run it. That's why I love the second day as it's done currently because it gets the real racing fan engaged - in fact it engages plenty of foreign visitors. I know for a fact foreign racing fans enjoyed the opportunity to see some of the biggest yards combined with the raceday on Sunday - The "Curragh Trail" as part of the ICW Sunday was a huge success in the last two years as it was sold out. As said, that's something where you get real racing fans engaged, which in my view, is much more important than having a few more folks at the track who only come for the "craic".
From personal experience I can highly recommend to do the Curragh Trial/raceday double on Sunday. You get to meet the top trainers, can chat with them, see some top class thoroughbreds in their own environment - it#s really well organised as well (sounding like a Curragh PR person I guess - I don't want to, because as mentioned before, I'm actually really annoyed with how they threat members.)
In my eyes the Curragh is the perfect racetrack - I heard plenty of trainers referring to "the fairest track in the world" - not sure about that, because sometimes over certain trips it heavily favours front-runners and the stiff uphill finish is certainly not everyone's cup of tea. But it's a wide, galloping track with very few hard-luck stories, if the jockey's don't mess up. In general it is incredibly fair.
- arsenalfh, BillyHills and beaker1
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3.00 Kempton: Star Of The Stage @ 6/1 Bet365
I think this horse has not seen to best effect yet since moving to his new yard and was minded on the last two occasions. Now a pound below his last winning mark when romping home over a mile at Lingfield last season he's of interest. Cheek-pieces are back on - these were off the last three times.
A field that doesn't appear to have to much pace may suit this lad allot given he has a fine draw and is usually at his best when ridden aggressively. With Kirby in the saddle I expect a strong front-running ride tomorrow - he might be hard to peg back once let lose in front given he has stamina for further.
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5.00 Kempton: Light Of Air @ 7/1 Coral
Open race with a bit of pace in it. Bottom weight Light of Air with first time blinkers (on the flat) is an interesting contender, slightly overpriced. He's yet to get off the mark but has been placed on his two starts on the All-Weather lately, both times he finished with plenty of credit. He looked to win at Kempton when he came with a big run but lacked a bit of focus in the closing stages, whereas he looked again a bit awkward at Lingfield lto in the closing stages.
A mark of 70, blinkers and hopefully a decent pace should help massively and he has a prime chance in my book.
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5.00 Kempton: Light Of Air @ 7/1 Coral
Open race with a bit of pace in it. Bottom weight Light of Air with first time blinkers (on the flat) is an interesting contender, slightly overpriced. He's yet to get off the mark but has been placed on his two starts on the All-Weather lately, both times he finished with plenty of credit. He looked to win at Kempton when he came with a big run but lacked a bit of focus in the closing stages, whereas he loked again a bit awkward at Lingfield lto in the closing stages.
A mark of 70, blinkers and hopefully a decent pace should help massively and he has a prime chance in my book.
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Agree with your Arsenal it's a shame that they keep the Derby and second day of ICW at the Curragh this year. Though they pitched it in a way that those 6000 lucky souls who will get entry on the day, would encounter better facilities than ever before (a village of tents!) - which in itself is a good indication how out of shape the place was.
As a Curragh member for the last five years I have not renewed my membership this season because I'm pissed off with the fact that despite less race days and despite the re-development and obvious limitations to the race day experience the price stayed the same. No offer or discount offered to members - that's disappointing.
However I'm glad that the course finally gets redeveloped and hopefully once finished it'll shine brightly as it deserves. The track is beautiful, the scenery its embedded in is beautiful, every inch of the track speaks history - the Curragh is a magical place in my mind. As shabby as it was up until recently, it certainly had its charm. It was such a raw experience, which I duly loved.
In regards to accessibility: personally I don't see an issue. Sure, it lies outside of the city, but even if you want to get to Leopardstown it take you a while with the car or the Luas, depending on where you live. The Curragh is easily accessible through bus or train to Kildare/Kildare Village and then the free shuttle bus - I did that for two years for basically any race day and found it worked okay and was inexpensive. Though agree, it is time consuming. Thankfully now with the car it is just straight down the N7/M7. In that sense it is not much different to Fairyhouse, Punchestown or Navan - in fact those courses without a car can be incredibly tricky imo - Naas a welcome exception.
In general I don't see the case for moving the second day of Irish Champions Weekend to Leopardstown. Simply because the Irish Leger is part of this day and is a race of much history that does belong to the Curragh.
Furthermore the last two years the second day of ICW tied in with the "Curragh Thoroughbred Trail" where in the morning racegoers could go on organised tours to visit yards based around the Curragh, like Johnny Murtagh's or John Oxx for example. That is a fantastic experience to see the yards, speak to the trainers and then go racing in the afternoon - an experience you can only create at the Curragh where racecourse and yards are in close proximity.
Having the chance to travel quite a bit and see racing in other countries and continents I can compare and have to say that in terms of race day experience Irish racecourses lack massively behind. What I've seen in Japan is probably hard to beat, but even second tier tracks in the US or middle of week race days in Germany offer often better facilities, choice of foot, complimentary racecards etc.
That says what I do enjoy mostly if it comes to Irish racing is its purity. It's about the sport and anyone can come and see it. That's what usually irritates me in Britain, at least those eleven tracks I've been to over the years, where you have all these different enclosures, separating racegoers, sometimes without even having access to the parade ring, and I feel people come more for the "event feel" and the drink - which even on the big days in Ireland, I don't experience to that extend.
What do I look forward to? Certainly next week, very much as arsenal does. Of course I'll get my ass down to Naas for the opener. Should be a good one (can we get some sun too please?). Entries look promising. I always been slightly more fond of the flat. While I love the four day bonanza that Cheltenham is, I appreciate the flat for the fact that nearly every weekend there is a really big race to look forward to. It's more spread out and keeps the excitement going for longer and is not only geared towards one week a year.
- beaker1 and BillyHills
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3.10 Navan: Handicap Hurdle
An open enough looking contest given the fact that none of the runners has ever won off their current rating or higher. Top weight Grand Partner must be taken serious o has to be fine flat performer Benkei on his handicap debut.
But I take a chance with Concordin who seems to be a bit overpriced. Already a nine year old but for his age with reasonable mileage on the clock. He didn't really enjoy chasing but has looked as good as ever since reverted to hurdling.
A fine third on his seasonal reappearance in November followed up by a strong staying performance at Leopardstown in a very competitive Handicap at the Christmas Festival. Subsequently he finished a long beaten fourth off a career highest mark in a mud fest at Gowran Park, but the form is better than it reads on paper.
Concordin travelled strongly and was about to make a big move when the field turned for home when suddenly one of the leaders slipped and fell. A miracle it was Concordin didn't came down too. But he certainly lost all momentum. Not knocked over in the closing stages he finished fourth but his chances were clearly ruined by the incident around the 3f marker.
The drop to 2m tomorrow seems odd, given he looks like a grinder, who needed every inch of the 2m 2f at Leopardstown. But it makes sense given the desperate ground to be expected at Navan, a track that has a very stiff and tough finish where emphasise is definitely more on stamina, particularly in testing conditions. That should really help Concordin's cause.
Selection:
10pts win - Concordin @ 9/2 WH -
8.35 Sha Tin: Hong Kong Derby
Sunday morning 8.35 – it’s time for the 2017 renewal of the Hong Kong Derby. The winner will net a cool £1,1 million! Local horses are favoured to land the odds with a red hot favourite seemingly unbeatable – yet I do strongly fancy a fresh UK import.
The favourite: Odds-on and very well fancied – with some experts claiming he’s nearly unbeatable in the Derby – the exciting Rapper Dragon ticks plenty of the right boxes, indeed.
Still unbeaten this season and a winner of both the Classic Mile and the Classic Cup as part of the Four Year Old Classic Series, he created a big impression and build up a reputation of being incredibly versatile and owning a trademark turn of foot.
The form book says Rapper Dragon is probably hard to beat tomorrow, even more so as he has been allotted a perfect draw. But he is a very short price and has yet to prove his stamina over the 2.000 meter trip.
His sire Street Boss is not necessarily known for stamina so if there is at least a small home in Rapper Dragon’s chance then it must be this one. However that only has a real impact if the race is a strong run one, which we can’t be sure of.
Main Contenders: Nonetheless there is some fair opposition on hand to make life difficult for the favourite. Exciting Pakistan Star is a real crowd favourite. An honest, fast finishing son of Shamardal out of a 1m2f Listed race winning mare, he may improve for the step up in trip, but will need to have things fall right for him from a wide draw.
Eagle Way had a rough ride in the Classic Cup and might be better than the fourth place finish. Former UK based Booming Delight has excelled in Hong Kong since his move last summer. He won three on the trot lately. Ex-Australian Beauty Generation has a bit too find on recent form but could easily improve for the trip.
The one I do strongly fancy is another UK import, however, one who’s still a somewhat unknown quantity in Hong Kong: Gold Mount (ex-Primitivo). He was always ahead of the handicapper in Britain, winning impressively at Royal Ascot a strong Handicap.
He showed versatility during his time in Britain, given he won from 1 1/2m to 1m 4f on soft to good to firm ground and particularly in his last two starts at Sandown and Ascot he produced a nice turn of foot, though hanging badly in the closing stages.
Clearly a raw talent, he moved subsequently to Hong Kong where he was relatively unfancied on debut in a hot handicap over seemingly too short 1.600m. He was outpaced on the home turn an then got stuck in traffic, switched by Mosse to the inside rail, a move that cost momentum, but regained control quickly and thundered home in impressive style.
There is no doubt that he should come on leaps and bounds for the run and more improvement is expected for the step up to a more suitable trip like the Derby’s 2.000 meter.
He’s got a half decent draw but his running style means he may need a bit of in-running luck. Granted he gets a run through I’m hopeful he’s good enough to be thereabouts.
Longshot: Far below the pecking order but a horse not to underestimate is Helene Charisma at odds around 33’s – a huge price for a French Group 1 winner, though in three starts he hasn’t quite fired at Hong Kong yet. That is somehow explainable over trips too short and on unsuitable fast ground.
There are positives taken from his last start though, when upped to 2.000m for the first time in Hong Kong and only a lengths beaten in fifth by Booming Delight. He encountered an absolute nightmare run but still finished as well as he did.
The ground is likely not going to be all that fast as it was the last two times, that must be a positive. His wide draw may or may not be negative, as he may encounter a less troubled passage actually, with the opportunity to come with a sweeping run on the outside to catch the leaders making his stamina in abundance count.
Selection:
10pts win – Gold Mount @ 11/1 Unibet
5pts win – Helene Charisma @ 33/1 Unibet.......
3.10 Navan: Handicap Hurdle
An open enough looking contest given the fact that none of the runners has ever won off their current rating or higher. Top weight Grand Partner must be taken serious o has to be fine flat performer Benkei on his handicap debut.
But I take a chance with Concordin who seems to be a bit overpriced. Already a nine year old but for his age with reasonable mileage on the clock. He didn't really enjoy chasing but has looked as good as ever since reverted to hurdling.
A fine third on his seasonal reappearance in November followed up by a strong staying performance at Leopardstown in a very competitive Handicap at the Christmas Festival. Subsequently he finished a long beaten fourth off a career highest mark in a mud fest at Gowran Park, but the form is better than it reads on paper.
Concordin travelled strongly and was about to make a big move when the field turned for home when suddenly one of the leaders slipped and fell. A miracle it was Concordin didn't came down too. But he certainly lost all momentum. Not knocked over in the closing stages he finished fourth but his chances were clearly ruined by the incident around the 3f marker.
The drop to 2m tomorrow seems odd, given he looks like a grinder, who needed every inch of the 2m 2f at Leopardstown. But it makes sense given the desperate ground to be expected at Navan, a track that has a very stiff and tough finish where emphasise is definitely more on stamina, particularly in testing conditions. That should really help Concordin's cause.
Selection:
10pts win - Concordin @ 9/2 WH -
Well done Jimmy and the other winners - great tipping lads! Thanks for the comp BH!
- BillyHills and Jimmy2shoes
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2.40 Kempton: Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle
An ultra competitive race with nearly half of the 2o runners in with a fair shout. However I do like quite a lot Dan Skelton's Bandsman off a lowly mark on his handicap debut.
The six year old took his time to get off the mark, but was massively impressive once he did it. He followed up with another success at Market Rasen, when he fought gamely to be on top when it mattered most.
This form looks strong through the runner-up who since then went on to win a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. An opening mark of 129 may well underestimate Bandsman's true class, particularly with ground sure to suit and potential improvement to come for the step up in trip.
He's not a slick jumper yet, so has certainly to do be better in that department against classier opposition here. But if he learned and if he stays the trip then he's a good chance to be in the shake-up I feel.
Selection:
Bandsman @ 9/1 Bet365 -
3.30 Cheltenham:
the more I look at this race the more I fancy Minella Rocco even more. Backed him days ago at bigger but think he is still a juicy price enough to put him up here. He's an immensly talented horse, still only seven years of age and already a Festival winner. He won the National Hunt Chase last year, beating Native River!
Granted, for Minella Rocco things did not go well since then. A decent comeback run followed by a fall and unseating his rider in his next two other starts this season.
Hard to know what to make of that. Confidence might be an issue. But if he can get his act together, which is more likely to happen at a place over a trip he has proven to be successful at, then surely he will be in the shake-up.
Minella Rocco @ 18/1 Bet365
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1.30 Ch: Mega Fortune
2.10 Ch: Crievehill
2.50 Ch: Constantine Bay
3.30 Ch: Minella Rocco
4.10 Ch: Wonderdul Charm
4.50 Ch: Battleford
5.30 Ch: Velvet Maker -
4.10 Cheltenham: Brown Advisory Handicap
at given prices, now that he made it actually into the race, Katachenko of a feather weight must have a decent chance to be in the shake-up.
He had a light enough campaign to date after finishing last season on a high thanks to Graded success over two miles at Aintree. His most recent run over a little more than 3 miles at Catterick, which is quite an undulating track, was a fine prep.
Stamina questions were answered that say in my mind. He finished a fine runner-up in soft conditions, but has proven himself on better ground in the past. Given he has form over much shorter too, he should be fine with conditions today.
At 40s with six places to pay with Skybet, I give him a chance.
Selection:
5pts E/W - Katachenko @ 40/1 Skybet -
23 hours ago, robertob said:
4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap
Having fancied him to have a chance to finish runner-up to Altior in the Arkle, I have to fancy him for this, right? Le Prezien of course, that is. Granted he runs here and not in the Grand Annual, I feel he’s rated a big chance.
The French recruit has had a good – albeit – light season so far, including a Grade 2 success here at Cheltenham. Hi seasonal reappearance when second behind Charbel looks increasingly strong form after his excellent performance in the Arkle on Tuesday.
Off a mark of 146 I can see Le Prezien do some damage here, as long as he stays the trip, which is a slight question mark. Given he won over 2m in soft conditions at Cheltenham before and was a fine runner-up at Aintree behind Yorkhill over 2m 4f last season, he’s probably a decent chance to get the trip.
Selection:
5pts win – Le Prezien @ 14/1 Bet3654.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap
Update: my original selection Le Prezien is out and instead runs in the Grand Annual tomorrow - so I re-evaluated the race and come to the conclusion at given prices, now that he made it actually into the race, Katachenko of a feather weight must have a decent chance to be in the shake-up.
He had a light enough campaign to date after finishing last season on a high thanks to Graded success over two miles at Aintree. His most recent run over a little more than 3 miles at Catterick, which is quite an undulating track, was a fine prep.
Stamina questions were answered that say in my mind. He finished a fine runner-up in soft conditions, but has proven himself on better ground in the past. Given he has form over much shorter too, he should be fine with conditions today.
At 40s with six places to pay with Skybet, I give him a chance.
Selection:
5pts E/W - Katachenko @ 40/1 Skybet -
1.30 Ch: Disko
2.10 Ch: Impulsive Star
2.50 Ch: Sub Lieutenant
3.30 Ch: Ballyoptic
4.10 Ch: Katachenko
4.50 Ch: Let's Dance
5.30 Ch: Potters Legend -
1.30: Triumph Hurdle
The home team has a strong hand in the race with the unbeaten Defi Du Seul and progressive Master Blueyes and French recruit Charli Parcs but I feel it’s the Irish that will take home the price.
If Bapaume would line up I’d be certainly interested in him but the market trend suggests he’s not going to be declared. So it’s left to the horse who has beaten him in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle last month: Mega Fortune.
I really do like the progression this good looking Soldier of Fortune son has made this season.He got closer and closer to the big guns in Graded races until eventually getting his head in front.
In the Leopardstown feature he jumped well but was most impressive once he put the foot on the gas pedal. He jumpedthe second last and wooosh off he went, in the end running strongly to the line.
I’ve got slight worries about the fast ground as he seemed to relish the juice in the ground the last time, but at given prices he’s a bit over here with only a handful of runners having a realistic chance to go close. Further progression must see him go close.
Selection:
10pts Win – Mega Fortune @ 7/1 PP……
2.10 County Hurdle
Gordon Elliott has a massive week so far and it might get even better because with Mick Jazz he has an exciting runner in the race. He won well on his first start for Elliott in October and was a fine runner-up behind Labaik, which looks brilliant form in hindsight.
He then went on to Fairyhouse Handicap where he travelled strongly behind a wall of horses but in the home straight then getting hampered twice, also making a mess of things at the second last, yet staying on strongly. Impressive!
After a break he produced another strong staying performance beating an odds-on Mullins horse at Punchestown. He looks the type ready made for Cheltenham. Even the ground is no worry. He could easily be better than his handicap mark.
Another one I really like to run big is Twiston Davise’s Crievehill. He’s probably getting in off a light weight. He’s progressive, his 3rd place behind Neon Wolf when last seen looks strong form and he might be still able to progress. The ground is a big worry as he never encountered anything less than soft, but at a big price he’s worth a punt.
Selection:
10pts win – Mick Jazz @ 10/1 Bet365
5pts win – Crievehill @ 40/1 Betfair SB……
2.50: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Death Duty may look like a good thing to many – but not to me. He could easily be too good, though at shortish odds I’m against him given he’s unproven on this ground and trip.
Two bigger prices are certainly of interest and seemingly underappreciated: there is the lightly raced Constantine Bay, who stepped up to 3m at Doncaster and produced a strong travelling yet incredibly game and tough performance in a ding dong finish, staying on very strongly. Traits you want to see in an Albert Bartlett contender.
Ami Desbois is the other one: Already a seven year old, bit more experienced, he’s been improving this year, was only a lengths behind Wholestone over course and distance in December but the price difference in the betting would imply there is a whole world between the two.
I really like Wholestone, but if I do so, then I have to like Ami Desbois even more, given his progressive profile and much bigger price.
Selection:
5pts win – Ami Desbois @ 33/1 Betfair SB
5pts win – Constantine Bay @ 16/1 Bet365…..
3.30: Gold Cup Chase
Who’s the new champ? Native River most likely. Hard to be against him? He put in some big performances, is clearly on the up, has Cheltenham form and is only seven. Even if there is no rain arriving, the ground may not necessarily be too big an issue.
But at the given price I can’t have him. Plain and simple he’s got to prove it all now for the first time in Grade 1. He hasn’t done that before. This is the toughest test to date which he may pass with flying colours. But I have to see it to believe it.
The standard is set by Djakadam. Twice a runner-up in this race; seemingly enjoying a better preparation this time and the Mullins yard is bullish. Fact is he’s been here before and ran extremely well, but fact is also his win record is only average. He had a lot of hard races for a horse of his age, so I’m not convinced he is even able to run to his form of the last two years.
He may well, but again, price dictates that he’s not for me. Even at double the odds he’d not be my choice, I have to admit. And that might be unfair to the poor horse and he could easily prove me wrong. If he does: great for Willie Mullins and well deserved.
Looking elsewhere I cant have Cue Card either. The old boy seems to be nearly as good as ever. But does he truly stay the Gold Cup trip? I still have a few doubts. Another one who’d be a well deserved winner, don’t get me wrong. But there are good reasons to oppose him, at least at a shortish enough looking price.
Sizing John is an interesting case. He won’t see the backside of Douvan here, but will he actually have the stamina to get home? Big question mark in my book.
Lexus Chase winner Outlander is a serious horse, though one you never can be sure whether he’s on a good or a bad day. It concerns me that he has not been seen since Christmas. Maybe to keep him fresh. This quirky character is not for me.
Neither is More Of That, even if Jonjo is blullish. Maybe unlucky the last time when he fell in the Irish Gold Cup, but overall his form over fences is below the standard required to land a Gold Cup.
Brings me to the two I fancy – though as it is with each and everyone in this field, you can blow big holes into their form.
After landing the Peter Marsh Handicap at Haydock, Bristol De Mai was odds-on to land the Denman chase, where he was then a long way beaten by Native River. That form is not his true class and I wouldn’t read too much into it. He’s clearly better than that.
Still only a six years old he could easily improve and develop into a top chaser. He may not, of course, that is also possible. At given prices I’m rather backing him to close the gap to the favourite.
Speaking of form that ties in with Native River: he was second at last years Festival behind Minella Rocco in the National Hunt Chase! For Minella Rocco things did not go well since then. A decent comeback run followed by a fall and unseating his rider in his next two other starts this season.
Hard to know what to make of that. Confidence might be an issue. But if he can get his act together, which is more likely to happen at a place over a trip he has proven to be successful at, then he could be in the shake-up.
Selection:
5pts win – Minella Rocco @ 25/1 WH
5pts win – Bristol De Mai @ 25/1 WH…….
.4.50: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap
There is no doubt that Battlefield ticks every box for me. Granted he gets in to the race, which looks rather likely (otherwise it’s money back anyway), he’ll be a big market mover come Friday I believe.
He had the perfect preparation in my mind, showed excellent form this year – his runner-up effort behind Monalee rates highly in my book. Most importantly he was here last year, finishing an agonisingly close second in the Champion Bumper.
Off a really nice mark he’s got a tremendous chance to win this race.
Selection:
10pts win – Battlefield @ 8/1 Bet365……
5.30: Grand Annual
Having fancied Le Prezien to have a chance to have a place chance in the Arkle and subsequently in the Brown Advisory, I have to fancy him for this, right?
The French recruit has had a good – albeit – light season so far, including a Grade 2 success here at Cheltenham. Hi seasonal reappearance when second behind Charbel looks increasingly strong form after his excellent performance in the Arkle on Tuesday.
Ground is a slight worry, but he looks potentially well in on handicap debut, so it’s the risk I take.
However there is another horse I even more fancy: that is Velvet Maker. I was incredibly keen on this lad last year in the very same race, where he bombed out. But he scoped badly- and had his issues in the aftermath, which meant he only made a reappearance last month.
That was an encouraging spin over hurdles where he travelled well and finished a nice third without getting a hard time. He should come on allot for the run – hopefully – with a 2lb lower mark than last year, fit and healthy this time around, I sense he’s a massive chance to lead from start to finish.
Selection:
5pts win – Le Prezien @ 10/1 Bet365
10pts win – Velvet Maker @ 14/1 Bet365 -
2.10 Cheltenham - RSA Chase
Favourite Might Bight has been on the drift for a while and there is the question whether Cheltenham is his track. We’ll find out soon. His Kempton performance (until the fall) was huge, so one should not underestimate him and his price goes in a direction where it could become tempting to have a little punt.
Alpha Des Obeaux’s bleeding issues when last seen put me off, whereas I feel Royal Vacation is a very decent each-way shout here. But the one I’m most excited about is recent 32 lengths Navan winner Acapella Bourgeois.
Yes, you can argue he got it easy in front that day, the other jockeys were caught napping and the heavy ground had a role to play too. But the way he jumped, the way he pricked ears while jumping the final fence clear by a mile, still only in second gear – you got to be impressed with this still generally lightly raced seven year old.
The faster ground is a question mark, though he was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles on yielding ground. I feel he’s the right type for this race, one who’ll be suited to Cheltenham and its demands, one who won’t go away when it starts to hurt and one who’ll be able to pull out more when the others stop.
Acapella Bourgeois @ 7/1 Skybet
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1.30: JLT Novices’ Chase
A race that’ll evolve around the jumping of Yorkhill. With a clear round he’s very hard to beat. But I’m not sure if he will get this clear round. His first start over fences was a Mickey Mouse contest where he didn’t learn much, his second and most recent start was one that didn’t impress many and clearly left me wondering too.
Jumping is the game, the saying goes – particularly at Cheltenham. That brings Disko very much into the equation. Noel Meade’s inmate was impressive at Leopardstown when last seen, he’s still improving and has the distance and ground in him.
Officially rated only one pound below Yorkhill you have to take him serious. Whether the big performance at Leopardstown in February has taken too much out him is a question mark. But he is a super jumper who may put the pressure on Yorkhill’s potentially weak point.
Selection:
5pts win – Disko @ 5/1 Paddy Power…….
2.10: Pertemps Finale
A big field handicap but one that can be easily broken down to a good handful of serious contenders. Favourite Tobefair looks a big chance. So does El Bandit and Impulsive Star together with Jury Duty from the other side of the Irish Sea.
In the end I’m nailing my colours to Impulsive Star and Jury Duty. Neil Mulholland’s lightly raced seven year old has been progressive throughout the season resulting in three wins out of four runs, while the one time he was beaten he encountered some excellent opposition.
He won’t mind the decent ground and stays really well. One who should relish the test of a big field where he can battle up the hill. A career highest mark he has to overcome, but this serious talent could easily be better than his current mark.
Ireland’s Jury Duty is equally lightly raced, though his win record isn’t as good. He’s encountered some strong opposition, though, and was slightly unlucky here and there in the past.
He picked up a niggle in his preparation and had to be rushed in order to qualify, which he did at Chepstow eventually.
The quick ground is a slight concern but this lad may have still some serious improvement left in him. It’s probably fair to say we didn’t see the best yet and that gives me hope for a big run here.
Selection:
5pts win – Impulsive Star @ 10/1 Betfair SB
5pts win – Jury Duty @ 10/1 Betfair SB…..
2.50: Ryanair Chase
A bit a surprise to see Empire of Dirt declared given I thought he’d be the ideal candidate for the Gold Cup, even more so after Don Poli’s absence. He’s here though and rates a major chance.
A festival winner last year, runner-up in the Irish Gold Cup this year – he’s got stamina in abundance as well as class. Ground and trip are not necessarily a worry but I do wonder if the big race from last month left a mark? He also produced some of his finest performances as a fresh horse.
That’s like complaining on a high level, of course, yet I feel he’s not the ideal candidate that I want to lump on in this race.
Speedier Un De Sceaux is favoured in the betting. The former Arkle winner and Champion Chase runner-up has had a perfect preparation with two wins from two starts this season. He can be a bit edgy jumping wise, might not quite appreciate the quick ground and the trip is one that may stretch him with others surely making this a test of stamina.
He’s the most likely winner but nothing more than a fair price. The one I do like is Empire Of Dirt stablemate Sub Lieutenant.
Far from a sexy selection, but a value price in my book. He’s proven on good ground and still only an eight year old. He’s had an ideal preparation and put a string of fine performances together this season, including a success over subsequent Lexus Chase winner Outlander.
With that in mind and more than double the price of UDC and EOD I feel he can give those two something to think about on Thursday.
Selection:
10pts Win – Sub Lieutenant @ 8/1 Bet365…….
3.30: World Hurdle
On all evidence Unowhatimeanharry is very hard to beat here. He’s a machine who’s proven class over course and distance. But he’s also a very short price. Too short for me.
Looking for alternatives I can see previous World Hurdle winner Cole Harden going close, but the one intriguing me most is quite clearly Ballyoptic.
He finished a couple of times behind the favourite this season and probably the same fate awaits here. But fact is he’s a Grade 1 winning novice himself who’s still a relatively young horse on the upward who was only 6l behind in second Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury in November.
After a disappointing performance over course and distance in the Cleeve Hurdle he got a bit of a break and his wind done – he’ll try a tongue tie for the first time here too – that in combination might bring out further improvement.
If it does and if he can get back to his early season form then he’ll be able to outrun his price tag and should be in the shake-up which is enough for a healthy place part of an each-way bet to pay.
Selection:
5pts E/W – Ballyoptic @ 16/1 Bet365…….
4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap
Having fancied him to have a chance to finish runner-up to Altior in the Arkle, I have to fancy him for this, right? Le Prezien of course, that is. Granted he runs here and not in the Grand Annual, I feel he’s rated a big chance.
The French recruit has had a good – albeit – light season so far, including a Grade 2 success here at Cheltenham. Hi seasonal reappearance when second behind Charbel looks increasingly strong form after his excellent performance in the Arkle on Tuesday.
Off a mark of 146 I can see Le Prezien do some damage here, as long as he stays the trip, which is a slight question mark. Given he won over 2m in soft conditions at Cheltenham before and was a fine runner-up at Aintree behind Yorkhill over 2m 4f last season, he’s probably a decent chance to get the trip.
Selection:
5pts win – Le Prezien @ 14/1 Bet365……
5.30: Kim Mur Amateur Riders’ Chase
Plain and simple Potters Legend is the one I want. While I also quite like Southfield Royale, I find it hard to trust him at a shortish price. Potters Legend, a lightly raced novice, will find this a tough assignment against seasoned handicappers but he could be one who has the talent to relish the challenge,
He produced fair performances this season and the last two times in Handicaps off his current mark. The step up in trip is intriguing and may or may not suit. But if he has to have a chance then because of improvement coming for the stamina test.
The good ground should definitely help to stay the distance. At a price he’s a decent bet in this race I feel.
Selection:
5pts win – Potters Legend @ 16/1 William Hill
Racing Chat - Thursday April 6th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
2.50 Aintree: Bowl Chase, 3m 1f
Cue Card greets from the top of the betting. The old boy still goes strongly as he proved this season. Question: what did yet another fall in the Cheltenham Gold Cup did to his psyche?
Empire Of Dirt flies the flag for Ireland. Slightly disappointing in the Rynair Chase, but he'll love this trip and track and is my idea of the most likely winner.
He's not my idea of a value bet, though. That's at given prices clearly Bristol De Mai. Of course I have to say this, because I fancied this lad for the Gold Cup quite a bit too. He's got some issues, jumping is sketchy, however he posses an abundance of ability and is still only a six year old.
The track will suit him, he did not have a n overly hard season and may be the one who has still something left at this stage of the year.
Selection:
5pts win - Bristol De Mai @ 6/1 Bet365
.......
6.45 Chelmsford: 1m Handicap, 3yo
Andrew Balding's Drochaid jumps out here. He's a big price - too big in my eyes. He is nicely bred and was progressive as a juvenile, won a good maiden at the fourth time of asking, with subsequent winners behind in second and third.
He's bound to improve as a three year old and returns to the track after a seasonal break. He drops into a class 4 Handicap on his AW debut with a mark that might underestimate him.
Mastercraftsman offspring tend to perform well at Chelmsford and the Balding yard is flying high in the last handful of weeks. It has to be said Drochaid encounters a strong favourite with Hannon's Mustarrid here and this might be only a pipe opener, but at 16's I'm inclined to have a small bet.
Selection:
5pts win - Drochaid @ 16/1 Skybet