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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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2.25 Newmarket: European Free Handicap, 7f
Interesting Frankel son Seven Heaven is lining up in this Listed contest. He's not the favourite but the least exposed in the field. How good he is remains to be seen, of course, but he certainly created a big impression on debut putting away subsequent National Stakes third Lockheed.
We didn't learn allot about him in his next two starts: at Goodwood in a 2-runner race he made clearly no mistake against a rival now rated in the 70's, while in the Racing Post Trophy he pulled his chances away, so that form is one to excuse I suggest.
There is a fair chance that Seven Heaven will be a much better three year old given he was a very late foal, nonetheless looked strong and scopey as a juvenile. And there is Frankel, the father, who has made a tremendous start to the year with his first three year old's hitting the race course - albeit only on the All-Weather so far.
But that could be a key indicator: last season not a single of his two year offspring got even placed on the sand, whereas this season an eye popping 50% of 14 starters ran into the money for an impressive 36% win rate. Interestingly the overall SP's stayed basically the same, so his sons and daughters were not simply better fancied than last season.
I suspect this Listed contest might only be a stepping stone for Seven Heaven. He's from an excellent family non only on the sire but also the dam side suggesting he and can step up in trip.
But I've no worries in terms of race fitness here, though. John Gosden said this race was the early season target for quite some time. And that makes sense. This is a real test against fine opposition.
Selection:
Seven Heaven @ 7/2 Bet365 -
2.25 Newmarket: European Free Handicap, 7f
Interesting Frankel son Seven Heaven is lining up in this Listed contest. He's not the favourite but the least exposed in the field. How good he is remains to be seen, of course, but he certainly created a big impression on debut putting away subsequent National Stakes third Lockheed.
We didn't learn allot about him in his next two starts: at Goodwood in a 2-runner race he made clearly no mistake against a rival now rated in the 70's, while in the Racing Post Trophy he pulled his chances away, so that form is one to excuse I suggest.
There is a fair chance that Seven Heaven will be a much better three year old given he was a very late foal, nonetheless looked strong and scopey as a juvenile. And there is Frankel, the father, who has made a tremendous start to the year with his first three year old's hitting the race course - albeit only on the All-Weather so far.
But that could be a key indicator: last season not a single of his two year offspring got even placed on the sand, whereas this season an eye popping 50% of 14 starters ran into the money for an impressive 36% win rate. Interestingly the overall SP's stayed basically the same, so his sons and daughters were not simply better fancied than last season.
I suspect this Listed contest might only be a stepping stone for Seven Heaven. He's from an excellent family non only on the sire but also the dam side suggesting he and can step up in trip.
But I've no worries in terms of race fitness here, though. John Gosden said this race was the early season target for quite some time. And that makes sense. This is a real test against fine opposition.
Selection:
10pts win - Seven Heaven @ 7/2 Bet365.......
5.45 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 7.5f
Plenty unexposed individuals lining up here. Fahey's Areen Heart could be too good if improved over the winter while the Shamadal filly Salamah deserves another chance, particularly at this course where her daddy has a tremendous record.
However I take a chance with race fit Lualiwa. This lad progressed nicely as a juvenile and his 2l beaten fourth in a hot Doncaster nursery on Handicap debut looks particularly strong form given the winner is now a 101 rated horse.
Lualiwa returned at Chelmsford last month in a rather poor maiden. He did no make a mistake, though. Storming out of the gates to make all from the front, travelling super strongly and putting the race to bed easily.
His current mark of 79 could underestimate him taking into account his juvenile form and strong visual impression last month. He's expected to improve as a three year old and is a nice scopey type.
Selection:
10pts win - Lualiwa @ 6/1 Paddy Power......
6.20 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f
Bottom weight Make On Madam must have a tremendous chance to get up in this race. Her win record isn't all that impressive and her record over this sort of trip isn't either. However she's going really well at this track, runs consistently well off higher marks here and won of 1lb higher last season a 7.5f Handicap at Beverley
On fast ground - which is fine for her - she has probably a pretty decent chance to stay the trip from a good draw, even more so in a slightly easier race, here against her own sex.
She had an excellent pipe opener last month at Newcastle over 7f too, finishing third, when staying on strongly in the end. With age she simply might have a bit more stamina than before.
Selection:
10pts win - Make On Madam @ 13/2 PP -
18 hours ago, robertob said:
2.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3f
A really poor race in terms of form, though some may find back to their best at a track they ran well in the past. The one most likely to do this is Bushel in my mind.
He is a course and distance winner of a much higher mark. Given he is a son of Street Cry this is no surprise as he has a tremendous record with his offspring at this track.
Bushel hasn't been winning since 2015, however ran with credit a handful times on turf last season, suggesting he is still not as far of his best, however big marks caught him out. Putting in a couple of stinkers his mark has dropped rapidly to a lowly 57 now.
That comes as a result of 15l+ beaten fifth in a 14f Handicap at Southwell last month. However pretty much no other rival was able to cope with the very well handicapped winner either. It came also over a trip that clearly stretched him.
In fact he was assisting the pace early on and travelled pretty well for most parts but fell apart over 2f out. The drop to 11f will suit and the additional 3lb off the handicap mark will certainly help too.
Selection:
10pts win - Bushel @ 13/2 Paddy Power.......
5.05 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
It will be interesting to see how this pans out pace wise with a split not impossible, despite only 11 runners, but I feel the low numbers are more likely to dominate and should be an ideal scenario for Majestic Hero who could be towed in to take it up when it really matters.
He won two races last year, including here at Newmarket and ran with plenty of credit in many more. His form tailed off toward the end of the season after a long campaign, though.
He clearly prefers this type of undulating tracks and acts very well on faster ground, so conditions should be ideal, A mark of 88 is fair judged on what he has achieved and if he can run to this rating here he must go very close with Jamie Spencer taking the ride as he did last year when these two teamed up to land the Newmarket race.
Jamie Spencer, often slated, is however clearly a bonus in the saddle, given there aren't many that ride this course and distance better. Also Majestic Hero goes well fresh.
Selection:
10pts win - Majestic Hero @ 12/1 Bet365Bushel won in a thriller, Majestic Hero finished 2nd in a thriller. Sometimes it goes for you, sometimes not. I've got be happy with the output.
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5.05 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
It will be interesting to see how this pans out pace wise with a split not impossible, despite only 11 runners, but I feel the low numbers are more likely to dominate and should be an ideal scenario for Majestic Hero who could be towed in to take it up when it really matters.
He won two races last year, including here at Newmarket and ran with plenty of credit in many more. His form tailed off toward the end of the season after a long campaign, though.
He clearly prefers this type of undulating tracks and acts very well on faster ground, so conditions should be ideal, A mark of 88 is fair judged on what he has achieved and if he can run to this rating here he must go very close with Jamie Spencer taking the ride as he did last year when these two teamed up to land the Newmarket race.
Jamie Spencer, often slated, is however clearly a bonus in the saddle, given there aren't many that ride this course and distance better. Also Majestic Hero goes well fresh.
Selection:
Majestic Hero @ 12/1 Bet36 -
2.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3f
A really poor race in terms of form, though some may find back to their best at a track they ran well in the past. The one most likely to do this is Bushel in my mind.
He is a course and distance winner of a much higher mark. Given he is a son of Street Cry this is no surprise as he has a tremendous record with his offspring at this track.
Bushel hasn't been winning since 2015, however ran with credit a handful times on turf last season, suggesting he is still not as far of his best, however big marks caught him out. Putting in a couple of stinkers his mark has dropped rapidly to a lowly 57 now.
That comes as a result of 15l+ beaten fifth in a 14f Handicap at Southwell last month. However pretty much no other rival was able to cope with the very well handicapped winner either. It came also over a trip that clearly stretched him.
In fact he was assisting the pace early on and travelled pretty well for most parts but fell apart over 2f out. The drop to 11f will suit and the additional 3lb off the handicap mark will certainly help too.
Selection:
10pts win - Bushel @ 13/2 Paddy Power.......
5.05 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
It will be interesting to see how this pans out pace wise with a split not impossible, despite only 11 runners, but I feel the low numbers are more likely to dominate and should be an ideal scenario for Majestic Hero who could be towed in to take it up when it really matters.
He won two races last year, including here at Newmarket and ran with plenty of credit in many more. His form tailed off toward the end of the season after a long campaign, though.
He clearly prefers this type of undulating tracks and acts very well on faster ground, so conditions should be ideal, A mark of 88 is fair judged on what he has achieved and if he can run to this rating here he must go very close with Jamie Spencer taking the ride as he did last year when these two teamed up to land the Newmarket race.
Jamie Spencer, often slated, is however clearly a bonus in the saddle, given there aren't many that ride this course and distance better. Also Majestic Hero goes well fresh.
Selection:
10pts win - Majestic Hero @ 12/1 Bet365 -
6.00 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Of course with three year old's early in the season you can't be quite sure how the race pans out pace wise, also some go with first headgear to post, suggesting there might be change of tactics for some.
However if you only read through the racing comments for most horses in this field you'll find only very few did ever race close the pace, let alone lead a field. The majority is held up in rear, dwelt, was slowly away and therefore naturally behind, or at most tracking the race from a midfield position.
I feel this might give a horse a chance that forces the matter. Obvious candidate is top weight Chickenfortea, who has decent form in the book too. However of a revised mark he looks vulnerable to an improver.
This one could be Kevin Ryan's Backinanger. This las has been up with the pace in his last two starts on the All-Weather where he ran with credit. He was incredibly keen when last seen at Newcastle and couldn't sustain his effort, though the third place looks good form taking all of that into consideration, even more so as the winner backed up the form subsequently.
Backinanger is still winless, but he makes his turf handicap debut here with fast conditions sure to suit. Interestingly connections opted for fitting cheek-pieces for the first time, something that could help him to focus, be sharp in the finish and be easier to handle in general.
He also hails from a decent family, he also was a late foal which explains why he looked still pretty raw in most of his races up to date. It is therefore fair to assume that he could still improve a bit. A low mark of 57 gives him a good chance here.
Selection:
Backinanger @ 7/1 Bet365 -
5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish Grand National
Harry Fry hasn't made a secret of the fact that this race has been the long term plan for Fletchers Flyer ever since he won a big Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival last year. He obviously handles this type of fast ground, goes well on a right handed track that is to some extend similar to Fairyhouse and he jumps well in a big field.
This still generally lightly races chaser has seen a racecourse only twice this season. His comeback run is one to put a line through, however a third place in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot in February is a fine piece of form.
He should come here in tip top shape, certainly fresher than most and could easily find a bit of improvement in these conditions which means his mark of 145 could undervalue his real talent.
Noble Endevour is a bit more experienced and very much race hardened. He looked superb when landing the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and he followed up with another huge performance at the Cheltenham Festival when third behind Un Temps Pour Tout in the Ultima Handicap Chase.
You always wonder how much energy that must have cost but he had only four starts this season so may well have still something left in the tank. Second highest weight in the race isn't an easy feast but he should love these conditions as he clearly excels in big fields, his jumping is big and bold, he travelles strongly and only slight question mark, other than fitness, is the fast ground.
Selections:
5pts win - Fletchers Flyer @ 11/1 Betfair SB
5pts win - Noble Endeveaur @ 16/1 Bet365......
6.00 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Of course with three year old's early in the season you can't be quite sure how the race pans out pace wise, also some go with first headgear to post, suggesting there might be change of tactics for some.
However if you only read through the racing comments for most horses in this field you'll find only very few did ever race close the pace, let alone lead a field. The majority is held up in rear, dwelt, was slowly away and therefore naturally behind, or at most tracking the race from a midfield position.
I feel this might give a horse a chance that forces the matter. Obvious candidate is top weight Chickenfortea, who has decent form in the book too. However of a revised mark he looks vulnerable to an improver.
This one could be Kevin Ryan's Backinanger. This las has been up with the pace in his last two starts on the All-Weather where he ran with credit. He was incredibly keen when last seen at Newcastle and couldn't sustain his effort, though the third place looks good form taking all of that into consideration, even more so as the winner backed up the form subsequently.
Backinanger is still winless, but he makes his turf handicap debut here with fast conditions sure to suit. Interestingly connections opted for fitting cheek-pieces for the first time, something that could help him to focus, be sharp in the finish and be easier to handle in general.
He also hails from a decent family, he also was a late foal which explains why he looked still pretty raw in most of his races up to date. It is therefore fair to assume that he could still improve a bit. A low mark of 57 gives him a good chance here.
Selection:
10 pts win - Backinanger @ 7/1 Bet365 -
5.05 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f
Keith Dalgleish's Dirty Randy is an interesting handicap debutante. He didn't show a lot in three maidens last season which all came in quick succession, hinting connections were keen to get the runs into him to qualify for a hopefully lenient opening mark.
The Handicapper - that is fair to say - has not taken any chances and allotted Dirty Randy a rating of 60, which, for what he has done so far, is harsh. Shouldn't the handicapper allocate marks for what horses have actually achieved without taking into account whether improvement may come in the future over different trips and surfaces?
Well, anyway, let's focus on the race. Given Dirty Randy was never going to be a miler but more with a future over middle distance trips he might still have a fairly good chance to outrun his opening mark.
A drastic step up in trip to 12f should see him certainly in better light than in those maiden races. He hails from a successful family that generally tends to do better with age and the further they go, so it's fair to assume Dirty Randy could develop into a decent horse.
He was never to enjoy the fast All-Weather surface at Newcastle, however his sire has shown his offspring can outrun the odds at the slower and more demanding Southwell fibresand.
So things fall right here for Dirty Randy in that sense, with trip and track likely to suit. He likely to be sharp enough on his seasonal reappearance, with cheek-pieces fitted for the first time. A fine 5lb claimer makes life a bit easier.
The Dalglish yard goes pretty well at the moment and it looks significant that Dirty Randy has two more entries for next week, which may suggest they hope for a strong run here to turn him out quickly again.
Selection:
Dirty Randy @ 5/1 PP -
3.00 Muselburgh: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
no surprise to see a William Haggas trained inmate at the top of the charts. His Sir Prancelot gelding Novoman has been incredibly consistent as a juvenile.He’s been out of the money only once in six starts last year.
He steps up to the one mile trip for the first time and that could edge out further improvement, which is needed, though, because judged on his juvenile form you can easily argue that he is not overly well handicapped.
Personally I’m not sure if Novoman really wants this trip and at odds around 7/2 he appears to be not a particularly good bet.
Hugo Palmer saddles speedy Mazyoun. Already Listed placed, he also ran twice to a RPR of 91, so if he can stay this 1 mile trip plus has improved over the winter then he could well be ahead of his current handicap mark.
A whole armada goes to post for Richard Fahey. He has four in the race, with the four-timer seeking Rashford’s Double the most likely winner. He is already a distance winner and has potential to be even better than what he showed last year given Zoffany offspring tends to age well.
The ground is a slight worry for me as he already stayed beyond a mile as a juvenile and might find quick ground not necessarily playing to his strengths.
Top weight Mailshot has a big assignment of mark off 99 and is certainly exposed enough compared to others, however one the other hand he’s ever improving, won last month a fine Handicap at Chelmsford and is sure to run well today.
Rusumaat hails from the same yard as Mailshot does, providing Mark Johnston with a strong hand in the race. This lad is a busy campaigner who has already eight runs under his belt, but it is fair to say he went from strengths to strengths last season.
His final appearance in a big sales race at Doncaster can be forgiven as he reared at the start and made too much too soon subsequently. The trip is the worry today, yet not totally beyond him. He’s certainly fast, however breeding gives him a chance and he will love the fast ground.
That brings me to the one I feel could be well handicapped: It’s one Fahey’s four: Society Red – a mark of 80 could well be underestimate what he can do as a three year old. It’s only 2lb higher than when finishing a strong runner-up in his final race and handicap debut last season.
That day the leader eventually pulled out more in a slowly run race and Society Rock was clearly not favoured by the pace. However he was only beaten by a neck eventually behind a then 92 rated individual who also franked the form in the meantime.
This son of Arcano could easily improve as a three year old and despite not fully tested over the slowly run mile in his final race last year, given his dam is a winner of a listed race over this trip in soft ground , he is likely to see out the trip strongly.
From a good draw, with conditions likely to suit, I feel he’s overpriced in a race that has questions marks over all of the twelve individuals going to post at 3pm this afternoon.
Selection:
Society Red @ 12/1 Bet365 -
3.00 Muselburgh: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
no surprise to see a William Haggas trained inmate at the top of the charts. His Sir Prancelot gelding Novoman has been incredibly consistent as a juvenile.He’s been out of the money only once in six starts last year.
He steps up to the one mile trip for the first time and that could edge out further improvement, which is needed, though, because judged on his juvenile form you can easily argue that he is not overly well handicapped.
Personally I’m not sure if Novoman really wants this trip and at odds around 7/2 he appears to be not a particularly good bet.
Hugo Palmer saddles speedy Mazyoun. Already Listed placed, he also ran twice to a RPR of 91, so if he can stay this 1 mile trip plus has improved over the winter then he could well be ahead of his current handicap mark.
A whole armada goes to post for Richard Fahey. He has four in the race, with the four-timer seeking Rashford’s Double the most likely winner. He is already a distance winner and has potential to be even better than what he showed last year given Zoffany offspring tends to age well.
The ground is a slight worry for me as he already stayed beyond a mile as a juvenile and might find quick ground not necessarily playing to his strengths.
Top weight Mailshot has a big assignment of mark off 99 and is certainly exposed enough compared to others, however one the other hand he’s ever improving, won last month a fine Handicap at Chelmsford and is sure to run well today.
Rusumaat hails from the same yard as Mailshot does, providing Mark Johnston with a strong hand in the race. This lad is a busy campaigner who has already eight runs under his belt, but it is fair to say he went from strengths to strengths last season.
His final appearance in a big sales race at Doncaster can be forgiven as he reared at the start and made too much too soon subsequently. The trip is the worry today, yet not totally beyond him. He’s certainly fast, however breeding gives him a chance and he will love the fast ground.
That brings me to the one I feel could be well handicapped: It’s one Fahey’s four: Society Red – a mark of 80 could well be underestimate what he can do as a three year old. It’s only 2lb higher than when finishing a strong runner-up in his final race and handicap debut last season.
That day the leader eventually pulled out more in a slowly run race and Society Rock was clearly not favoured by the pace. However he was only beaten by a neck eventually behind a then 92 rated individual who also franked the form in the meantime.
This son of Arcano could easily improve as a three year old and despite not fully tested over the slowly run mile in his final race last year, given his dam is a winner of a listed race over this trip in soft ground , he is likely to see out the trip strongly.
From a good draw, with conditions likely to suit, I feel he’s overpriced in a race that has questions marks over all of the twelve individuals going to post at 3pm this afternoon.
Selection:
10pts win – Society Red @ 12/1 Bet365 -
A rare day of success. Hushood and even more so Chaplin Bay (what a massive price he was last night!) delivered two satisfying winners! Though my Lingfield picks were rotten. Should have known it's so difficult to win from the back in these big fields yet I backed three who would need all the luck in the world. Dumb.
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3.30 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 3.5f
Richard Hannon's Hushood is thrown into the deep end here on his handicap debut of a rather biggish looking opening mark, judged on what this lad this as a juvenile.
But he is expected to improve big time for the trip. He's nicely bred and a full-brother to Group 3 placed Seaport. His family is stamina laden and has also form on fast ground, though Hushood himself showed his best in a maiden on good to soft last year, beating a short odds-on favourite from the Gosden yard, who subsequently franked the form.
Interestingly Hushood is by sire Champs Elysees who has a tremendous record over this trip and on firm ground, which gets even better at this Bath track - a small sample size it is, but the numbers look significant.
All in all Hushood makes appeal as there is a good chance he finds the improvement needed in these conditions to overcome a mark of 86.
Selection:
10 pts win - Hushood @ 13/2 Skybet -
2.10: Lingfield: AW Marathon Championships, 2m
I have set my eyes firmly on First Mohican here, fourth in this race last year, when incredibly unlucky. He travelled like the winner for most parts but didn't get a run whatsoever.
He had a busy campaign subsequently, ended it winless, however was placed in some big Handicaps, including an excellent runner-up effort in the Cesarewith!
After a small break during the winter he returned in a conditions race at Kempton, finished a fine third, then went on to win the Fast Track Qualifier over the 2m at Lingfield last month in good style, suggesting he is still as good as ever.
Now, he can start slowly and might be outpaced early on, as a result may well find himself far off the pace, similar to last year. No doubt he will need all things to fall right in order to win, but in an open race he's a very big price.
Selection:
10pts win - First Mohican @ 20/1 Bet365.......
3.10 Lingfield: AW Sprint Championships, 6f
Most of these have collateral form and it is quite hard to split them. Royal Birth looks a prime candidate if he could bring his form to this longer trip, though the form selections would be Kimberella and surely the most likely winner has to be Lancelot Du Lac.
Front running Mythmaker from pole position has the ability to steel the race wheres Boom The Groom at his best has a huge shout.
The "x-factor" in the race is Godolphin's Pretend. He won this very race two years ago. Since then things did not go right. After yet another absence he returned to the track at Kempton in February and showed that still possesses above average ability when easily sprinting away in a slowly run race, travelling powerfully in rear throughout.
The next two times here at Lingfield things went horribly wrong. In the Cleves Stakes he got a bump soon after the start and was set alight as a consequence, despite racing keenly he found extra in the closing stages but was then short of room when it mattered most.
Dropped to 5f the next time he bottled the start and in a race where you had to be at least prominently positioned in order to have a chance he lost the race right there. Nonetheless sectionals tell its own story and he ran a huge race according to them, though he looked fairly awkward in the home straight.
Making excuses for a horse twice is a never a good sign but I'm inclined to do so for Pretend. He's better than what he has shown the last two times, is a former winner of this race, a Group 3 winner on the All-Weather and his overall record suggests he is the most talented individual in this race.
The wide draw does not help today, or does it? I suspect it's better for him so he can come with a big sweeping run on the outside turning for home and then his electric change of gear might see him pick off the leaders, instead of facing a wall of horses.
Selection:
10 pts win - Pretend @ 5/1 Skybet.......
4.40 Lingfield: AW Middle Distance Championships, 1m 2f
Favourite Convey produced a massive performance on his reappearance lto and is fancied for good reasons. But is he that much better than the rest as the odds suggest? Unlikely in my book.
You can make a case for a handful of horses, yet the most interesting is Battalion. He loves this course and distance, won twice here this winter, including a listed contest.
He is clearly a quirky character as seen in the Winter Derby and those antics cost him every chance. as a standard he is slowly away and that will make life difficult in a race without a lot of pace today yet again.
But despite his antics he ran incredibly well judged on sections the last two times and that swerve in his direction: if he is on a going day then he clearly has the ability to pick them all up and win.
Selection:
10pts win - Battalion @ 6/1 Bet365.......
2.55 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Against the odds I feel Ruth Carr's five year old gelding Chaplin Bay looks an overly big price on his seasonal reappearance. He ran well as a fresh horse in the past so it would not be a surprise to see him return to form.
He seems to be an exposed sort on turf, however not so much on the sand, where in two career starts he finished runner-up in a Dundalk maiden and fourth in a hot Handicap last season.
Off his current mark he may could still find a bit of improvement on the All-Weather; in fact his breeding suggests there might well be more to come. Fastnet Rock offspring outruns the odds year after year, even more so over the 7f trip and very much so this season at Newcastle.
Selection:
10pts win - Chaplin Bay @ 16/1 PP -
2.55 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Against the odds I feel Ruth Carr's five year old gelding Chaplin Bay looks an overly big price on his seasonal reappearance. He ran well as a fresh horse in the past so it would not be a surprise to see him return to form.
He seems to be an exposed sort on turf, however not so much on the sand, where in two career starts he finished runner-up in a Dundalk maiden and fourth in a hot Handicap last season.
Off his current mark he may could still find a bit of improvement on the All-Weather; in fact his breeding suggests there might well be more to come. Fastnet Rock offspring outruns the odds year after year, even more so over the 7f trip and very much so this season at Newcastle.
Selection:
Chaplin Bay @ 16/1 PP- BillyHills and Tipsterix
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Outcrop a really nice winner at 8/1 SP! I think first and second are decent and can go on to slightly better things. Blitz just didn't cope with the fast going it seems, outpaced early on, finished an okay 4th. Lackaday a non-runner. Happy enough overall.
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2.20 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f
It's only the second start for the filly Blitz since moving to the UK from Ireland where she showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. She finished a close second on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in February which was also her UK debut.
That day she tried to make all and set a good pace from the front but just got a bit tired in the end it seemed while also still showing signs of greenness at the start and turning around the final bend.
This form looks rock solid and a return to turf on a straight track with fast ground could see her putting her best foot forward. In similar conditions she went only half a lengths down in a Curragh maiden behind a subsequent Group 3 scorer last year.
Selection:
Blitz @ 9/2 Bet365 -
4.30 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
It's always difficult to make a decision if you fancy two horses in the same race, so do I here with Coquine, who seemingly finds her first real opportunity on turf after a fruitful winter. She could potentially remain well handicapped with blinkers fitted.
But tentatively I side with Lackaday who won this very race off 8lb higher last year. He was no chance given by the handicapper subsequently but has finally dropped down to a very handy mark again.
He changed yards in the meantime and ran extremely well on his reappearance over sharp 5f at Newcastle last month. He finished an excellent 3rd that day - a performance that suggests he finds back to his best form.
Selection:
10pts win - Lackaday @ 6/1 Betfair SB.....
2.20 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f
It's only the second start for the filly Blitz since moving to the UK from Ireland where she showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. She finished a close second on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in February which was also her UK debut.
That day she tried to make all and set a good pace from the front but just got a bit tired in the end it seemed while also still showing signs of greenness at the start and turning around the final bend.
This form looks rock solid and a return to turf on a straight track with fast ground could see her putting her best foot forward. In similar conditions she went only half a lengths down in a Curragh maiden behind a subsequent Group 3 scorer last year.
Selection:
10pts win - Blitz @ 9/2 Bet365......
5.20 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 10f
Outcrop, the son of Rock Of Gibraltar makes plenty of appeal on his Handicap debut over a trip more suitable than what he raced over in three maidens as a juvenile.
His opening mark looks potentially lenient given he already ran to a similar RPR on his final start last season over a trip likely to short. He looks one who's sure to improve with age and experience too.
Lightly raced sons of ROG tend to improve dramatically over the 1m 2f trip and if that isn't enough then trainer Hughie Morrison has a fine record at this course over the last number of years.
Selection:
10pts win - Outcrop @ 7/1 Betfair SB -
Al Wukair stormed home in the Prix Djebel today. Looks a serous horse, 3/3 now, form very strong of this and his listed success last year. Nice prep for the Guineas and Dream Ahead offspring with decent record at Newmarket - as low as 5/1 with some firms but still available with some at 8's - a serious contender? What do you guys think?
Video to the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfKZOEgyJmw
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2.00 Lingfield: Maiden Stakes
Favourite Eagle Creek looks hard to beat if ready to go on his seasonal reappearance. He ran well on debut last season but was put away subsequently. He's destined for better and this race is most likely only a stepping stone.
From a good family by Raven's Pass and Listed race placed dam Blue Angel, a half-brother to listed race winner and multiple Meydan winner Viren's Army, he should be too good for this lot at Lingfield.
The All-Weather surface is unlikely to pose a threat and connections must clearly feel he's here to win as Atzeni comes for only this one ride and his record in Lingfield maidens when he's having only a single ride on the day is marvellous
Selection:
Eagle Creek @ 2/1 Bet365 -
2.00 Lingfield: Maiden Stakes
Favourite Eagle Creek looks hard to beat if ready to go on his seasonal reappearance. He ran well on debut last season but was put away subsequently. He's destined for better and this race is most likely only a stepping stone.
From a good family by Raven's Pass and Listed race placed dam Blue Angel, a half-brother to listed race winner and multiple Meydan winner Viren's Army, he should be too good for this lot at Lingfield.
The All-Weather surface is unlikely to pose a threat and connections must clearly feel he's here to win as Atzeni comes for only this one ride and his record in Lingfield maidens when he's having only a single ride on the day is marvellous
Selection:
10pts win - Eagle Creek @ 2/1 Bet365.......
3.10 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap
The books seem to have the wrong horse favoured in the betting in my book. William Haggas's Battered looks a far better chance at a bigger price. Battered run well in four starts in his juvenile campaign. Won a competitive maiden at Yarmouth and lost little in defeat when runner-up in a hot Handicap at York.
He had subsequent Listed places Tomily behind him who is now a 99 rated individual. RPR's also suggest Battered is likely to be well in here off his current 82 mark.
Further to that he did better than one would expect as a two year old given sire Foxwedge progeny seems to do better as three year olds. With a track that favoures prominent runners sure to suit this pacey lad I feel he takes the world of beating.
Selection:
10 pts win - Battered @ 2/1 PP -
5.25 Redcard: The top weight Livella Fella makes plenty of appeal dropping back into class five on her turf reappearance. She didn't ran badly on the All-Weather over the winter but is clearly much better on the green grass and I suspect she'll enjoy the conditions here.
A fair pipe opener after a break at Newcastle last month means she should be ready to go over a trip she loves. She has form at Redcar too and judged on past form appears to be on a pretty fair mark.
Livella Fella @ 10/1 bet365
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3.40 Aintree: Betway Handicap Chase
I loved the run of Potters Legend at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir last month. This progressive first season Novice Chaser won a couple of races earlier this season and then finished with plenty of credit in better grades the next four times.
His Festival run clearly the most eye-catching one. He made a serious mistake three from home and nearly came down, but rallied incredibly strongly to get on terms with the leaders half a furlong out, to eventually fade into 4th place.
The ground and flatter track may suit him well here and if he can hold his form after a long season - and that is in my mind the most pressing question - he's got to be a serious contender.
Selection:
10pts win - Potters Legend @ 10/1 PP -
Good luck everybody! Never found the winner on this, still here' my three fancies:
Nr. 10 - Blacklion @ 14/1: The eight year old will have to race off a four pound higher mark in the future, that meas he's potentially well in here. In fact he's got a near perfect profile for the National, one could say he is some sort of a sexy trend horse.
Fact is he's got the form in the book, ran really well this season, has come close a number of times and has form that ties in with other very well fancied National contenders. He'll stay and enjoys decent ground - also he's never been a faller in his whole career.
Nr. 29 - Vicente @ 25/1: Potentially a smart horse who's recently been purchased by the connections of previous National winner Many Clouds.
Fair to say things did not quite pan out as hoped this season after a fantastic 15/16 campaign that culminated in a Scottish Grand National success. You have to trust his trainer to have him right for the big day but if that's the case then Vicente must have a big chance of his weight with conditions sure to suit.
Nr. 7 - Wounded Warrior @ 80/1: had his issues lately and has to be trusted to find back to his best. But apparently schooled well and is in fine order.
Clearly a classy individual on his day with Grade 1 chasing form in the book. He stays all day long and won't mind the fast ground either. A decent sixth place finish - albeit a long way beaten - in the Theystes Handicap shows there is still some life in him.
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6.45 Chelmsford: 1m Handicap, 3yo
Andrew Balding's Drochaid jumps out here. He's a big price - too big in my eyes. He is nicely bred and was progressive as a juvenile, won a good maiden at the fourth time of asking, with subsequent winners behind in second and third.
He's bound to improve as a three year old and returns to the track after a seasonal break. He drops into a class 4 Handicap on his AW debut with a mark that might underestimate him.
Mastercraftsman offspring tend to perform well at Chelmsford and the Balding yard is flying high in the last handful of weeks. It has to be said Drochaid encounters a strong favourite with Hannon's Mustarrid here and this might be only a pipe opener, but at 16's I'm inclined to have a small bet.
Selection:
Drochaid @ 16/1 Skybe
Monthly Naps Comp - Thursday 20th April 2017
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
4.40 Lingfeld: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
An open and rather competitive race for this grade, though the short favourite could improve yet again after a couple of big performances and therefore might have too much on his plate for this lot.
Nonetheless I'm more interested in potential improver Caledonian Gold. The four year old mare is still without a win, however is totally unexposed over the one mile trip and has dropped to a career lowest rating, despite running to solid form the last handful of starts over shorter trips.
She has tried this sort of trip only once last season when she failed miserably, which was more down to her pulling way too hard in the early stages of the race. She looked one paced over 7f in all her races though, still always running to the line at least, suggesting that now where she is potentially wiser and more mature that she really wants an extra furlong.
The very fact that the dam won a race over 10 furlongs on the Lingfield All-Weather gives enough confidence to suggest that this step up in distance can help. And if it does edge out a bit of improvement then Caledonian Gold could easily take advantage of her falling mark.
The yard seems to expect a performance as the jockey booking of Robert Winston looks significant. A "job jockey" I would call it, he has only two rides on the card, the next one after this race nearly two hours later, and he has a very healthy strike rate for this yard either, suggesting he's not making the trip in the afternoon just for fun.
Selection:
Caledonian Gold @ 15/2 Bet365